Buried In All The Sensational “Russian Bounty” Headlines: Intel Chiefs Back White House Position

Buried In All The Sensational “Russian Bounty” Headlines: Intel Chiefs Back White House Position

Tyler Durden

Tue, 06/30/2020 – 12:01

A group of Congressional Democrats will be briefed at the White House Tuesday in response to ongoing accusations that Trump was made aware of but ignored what The New York Times described last Friday as a Russian military intelligence operation that sought to kill American troops in Afghanistan by issuing bounties to Taliban fighters. 

This following a Monday briefing of at least seven Republican lawmakers, also as both Republican and Democratic leaders demand answers and full briefings from the CIA and Pentagon. Crucially it remains, however, that the White House and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence have firmly rejected that the president was ever briefed.

On Saturday Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe said in a statement that he had “confirmed that neither the President nor the Vice President were ever briefed on any intelligence alleged by the New York Times in its reporting.” 

CIA Director Gina Haspel with Trump, via AP.

And Trump said further in a Saturday night tweet“Intel just reported to me that they did not find this info credible, and therefore did not report it to me or VP.”

A carefully worded and to be expected somewhat vague Monday evening statement from CIA Director Gina Haspel appeared to vindicate the White House’s assertion of lack of credible intelligence behind it. Essentially the CIA director seemed to reference the danger of “cherry-picking” from lower level unvetted raw information.

“When developing intelligence assessments, initial tactical reports often require additional collection and validation,” Haspel said.

“Leaks compromise and disrupt the critical interagency work to collect, assess, and ascribe culpability,” she added, strongly suggesting that indeed there was not enough to go on concerning the Russian bounty allegations for it to rise to the level of the commander-in-chief.

A number of pundits took this as a clear denial that there was anything significant or worthy of briefing the president on regarding alleged “Russian bounties” — meaning it was likely deemed “chatter” or unsubstantiated rumor picked up either by US or British intelligence  and subsequently leaked to the press to revive the pretty much dead Russiagate narrative of some level of “Trump-Putin collusion”.  

Still, Congress wants answers in what’s already indeed looking like a revived Russiagate scenario conveniently timed for the outrage machine to kick into full gear just ahead of the November election. 

House Armed Services Committee Chairman Adam Smith (D-Wash.) said: “If the reports are true, that the administration knew about this Russian operation and did nothing, they have broken the trust of those who serve and the commitment to their families to ensure their loved one’s safety,” according to The Hill. “It is imperative that the House Armed Services Committee receive detailed answers from the Department of Defense.”

And of course newly minted “resistance hero” John Bolton, busy with a media blitz promoting his book, made statements to NBC’s Meet the Press on Sunday stating his belief that the president was likely briefed on the matter. The former national security adviser called the Trump denial “remarkable” enough to grab headlines.

But considering his careful, ambiguous remarks, it’s clear that belief is the operative word here

“He can disown everything if no-one ever told him about it,” Bolton said… “It looks like just another day in the office at the Trump White House.”

Bolton said he didn’t know the quality of the intelligence on the Russian bounty plan, or the extent of it. And not all information that flows through the many U.S. intelligence agencies is passed on to the commander in chief, Bolton noted.

“There needs to be a filter of intelligence for any president, especially for this president,” he said.

“Active Russian aggression like that against American servicemen is a very, very serious matter,” Bolton added.

So at this point we are still merely at the level of “impossible to verify or confirm anything”, despite the major outlets behind the original story, namely the NY Times and Washington Post, claiming to have “confirmed” each other’s reporting. 

* * * 

Meanwhile, speaking of America’s longest war, does anyone at all of Capitol Hill remember this actual confirmed and exhaustively documented story?

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Twitter Remorse: Deleted Tweets Trigger Backlash At The DNC, Washington Post, & The White House

Twitter Remorse: Deleted Tweets Trigger Backlash At The DNC, Washington Post, & The White House

Tyler Durden

Tue, 06/30/2020 – 11:40

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Twitter remorse is an emotion that millions experience daily. 

For most, a delete is sufficient until next Thanksgiving when a sibling brings it up at the table. 

For The Democratic National Committee, The Washington Post, and the White House there is no such thing as a deletion as shown this week. 

  • The week began with a controversy over President Donald Trump retweeting a video of supporters, including one screaming “White Power.” 

  • Then the Washington Post global opinions editor Karen Attiah was under fire for a tweet suggesting that all white women are lucky that they are not targeted for “revenge.” 

  • Most recently, the Democratic National Committee retweeted a message that Trump visiting Mount Rushmore was a “celebration of white supremacy.” 

Notably, none of these tweets were actually defended, just deleted.

Trump deleted the video of a tweet showing Trump supporters and anti-Trump protesters engaged in an intense shouting match with one supporter yelling “White Power.”  The media legitimately spent exhaustive coverage on the tweet.  Trump has long been criticized for racially inflammatory rhetoric and the use of imagery and videos viewed by many as racist.  Given the controversies that range from Central Park Five to the Charlottesville protests, the tweeting of a video showing someone yelling “White Power” is news.

However, the media did not comparatively spend much coverage on the DNC tweeting that Mount Rushmore glorifies “white supremacy.”  That message appeared on the official Twitter account of  the Democratic National Committee when it shared shared a link to an article containing criticism of the visit as “glorifying white supremacy at Mount Rushmore- a region once sacred to tribal communities.”  George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Theodore Roosevelt and Abraham Lincoln are shown at the site.

There was also comparatively little coverage of the tweet of Attiah even though this was a direct statement, not a retweet.  Yet, it received virtually no coverage or criticism.  he full tweet read:

“The lies & tears of White women hath wrought: -The 1921 Tulsa Massacre – Murder of Emmet Till – Exclusion of Black women from feminist movements – 53% of white women voting for Trump. White women are lucky that we are just calling them ‘Karen’s.’ And not calling for revenge.”

For those of us still reeling over the recent apology of the New York Times (and removal of its editor) for publishing a column from a conservative U.S. Senator, the lack of media coverage of a major editor’s posting is notable. My point is not that I want to see Attiah forced out. I do not.  Indeed, like many, I praised her efforts to highlight the murder of the writer Jamal Khashoggi by the Saudi government.  Moreover, Attiah is hardly the first person to have poster’s remorse of a tweet. We have all had such moments.

My point is the classic free speech and free press concern raised repeatedly on this blog over the consistency of standards.  I still believe that the New York Times’ actions will live in journalistic infamy.  It represented the lowest moment for that newspaper in abandoning any semblance of viewpoint neutrality while making echo-journalism a virtual official policy of the publication.

The coin of the realm for journalism has always been not just neutrality but consistency. The similar concern arises over the lack of coverage of the DNC controversy over the “White Supremacy” tweet as opposed to the Trump tweet over the “White Power” tweet. I think both tweets were outrageous.  Yet, there remains a decidedly different response from the media. Both the DNC and Trump are actively engaged in a presidential election season where issues of races are being discussed extensively and passionately.

The fact is that I view all of these tweets are likely the result of incautious, negligent, or thoughtless moments. I tend not to ascribe evil or racist or hateful motivations when simple stupidity or spontaneity could be the reason for a controversy. A tweet is a dangerous invitation for heedlessly moments as this week has already shown.

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11 Redacted Seconds of Video of Fatal 2014 Drug Bust Undermine Florida Cops’ Official Story

Jerry Dwight Brown, Pasco Sheriff's Office

In 2014, Florida deputies shot and killed Jerry Dwight Brown during a small-scale drug bust. Pasco County Sheriff Chris Nocco said the deputies fired after Brown refused several orders to comply. The State Attorney’s Office cleared the deputies of any wrongdoing due to Brown’s alleged noncompliance. But last week, the Tampa Bay Times released a video of the shooting that challenges the department’s official story.

Brown was shot and killed on July 1, 2014. The 41-year-old inadvertently sold illegal prescription pills to an undercover deputy with Pasco County Sheriff’s Office (PCSO). The sting was part of a monthslong investigation into Brown. After the undercover deputy motioned for fellow deputies to move in and arrest Brown, the department claimed that they repeatedly ordered Brown to show his hands and shot him after he made a sudden movement.

Brown died at a hospital following the shooting. The department found that he was unarmed during the interaction.

The day after the shooting, Nocco told 10 Tampa Bay, “When we are ordering commands to show me your hands, when we are telling somebody they need to comply and they make motions that are not, and make our detectives feel their lives are being threatened you have a millisecond to make a decision.”

The sheriff’s office provided Reason with a redacted version of the video from the drug bust. In the video, an undercover deputy interacts with Brown outside of Big Ben’s Tires in Zephyrhills. He urges Brown to enter the vehicle to make the sale. A reluctant Brown does so, takes the pills out, and begins to count at the undercover deputy’s request. 

Armed deputies then approach the car and the video skips 11 seconds. When the video picks up again, the deputies are pointing guns and surrounding the vehicle.

On Friday, almost exactly six years after the shooting, the Tampa Bay Times released the redacted portion of the video.

Several deputies approach the side of the vehicle and begin to shout various commands at Brown. Brown tries to open the passenger door. The deputies shoot through the windshield and Brown screams. Fewer than five seconds pass from the moment the deputies issue their commands to the time the bullets puncture the windshield.

PCSO told Reason that the video, which they did not provide to the Tampa Bay Times—the paper obtained it independently—was released “in direct violation of a Florida State Statute that was in place at the time the video was recorded.” The older statute to which the department is referring exempted recordings depicting the “killing of a person” from the public record. (The language in the statute was narrowed in 2016 to exempt recordings depicting the killing of a law enforcement officer on duty from the public record.)

The department also told Reason that they did not start using body cameras until 2015, and thus have no footage from the incident, nor are they able to provide an original copy of a press release regarding the 2014 incident.

Brown’s death sparked some protests in the area in 2014 but has otherwise flown under the radar, receiving little national attention.

In February, the department reached a $262,500 settlement with Brown’s widow but did not admit liability. In its report on the redacted video, the Tampa Bay Times said the deputies responsible for the killing are still employed by PCSO.

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Defendant “Not Likely to Emerge From … His [5-Year] Sentence … with a Thoughtful and Pacific Approach to His Fellow Man”

I’m inclined to support properly crafted three strikes laws, especially for cases like this; and the court seems to be quite right that the trial judge’s decision is unsound under the California three strikes law. On the other hand, I know that others think that such heavy recidivism enhancements are improper, and that five years would be a sound sentence for a crime such as this one, regardless of the defendant’s past criminal history. (Still others might think that five years is too long, given that the victim managed to prevent being physically injured.)

What do you think? Here are the facts and some of the reasoning from People v. Mayfield, decided last week by the California Court of Appeal (in an opinion by Justice William Bedsworth, joined by Justices Richard Fybel and David Thompson):

The members of this panel have enjoyed long careers in the practice of law. We’ve seen enough to make it difficult to shock us. But not, as it turns out, impossible.

Respondent Tyson Theodore Mayfield has an extensive criminal record that includes multiple acts of violence against racial minorities. In this case, he threatened to make a pregnant African-American woman “drop” her unborn baby while she was waiting at a bus station. As a third-strike defendant, respondent was facing a mandatory prison sentence of 25 years to life. However, the trial court [Judge Roger B. Robbins] dismissed one of his prior strike convictions in the interest of justice under Penal Code section 1385 and sentenced him to five years in prison.

The district attorney contends the dismissal constitutes an abuse of discretion, and we agree. Completely. Everything about respondent’s crime and his record shouts for application of the Three Strikes law….

Jasmine C. is an African-American woman who was eight months pregnant in September of 2018. That day, she was waiting at the Fullerton bus station for her boyfriend to pick her up when she heard respondent talking nearby. He was telling his two male companions how he hates “niggers” like Jasmine and “gets his kicks” by hurting pregnant black women. He also asked his cohorts if they wanted to see him go over to Jasmine and make her “drop her baby.”

Jasmine became frightened. Her anxiety increased even more when respondent walked over to her and said, “I don’t like pregnant niggers like you,” “I’m going to make sure you drop your baby.” Jasmine told respondent to stay away from her, but he continued to hurl racial epithets at her. Fearing for her safety, and the safety of her unborn baby, Jasmine took out her pepper spray and sprayed respondent with it.

In response, respondent grabbed Jasmine’s backpack and left the scene momentarily. He then came running back toward her with his fists balled up and told her, “You’re going to pay now, you nigger, I’m going to make sure you really drop this baby.”

By now, Jasmine was so terrified her body was shaking uncontrollably. She somehow managed to run to a nearby café and call the police before respondent was able to carry out his threat. Officers arrived a short time later and took him into custody.

He was charged with committing a hate crime by threatening Jasmine for the purpose of violating her constitutional rights and with the present ability to commit a violent injury or cause actual physical injury. The complaint also alleged one count each of making a criminal threat and petty theft. And it included a sentence enhancement allegation that the criminal threat constituted a hate crime.

In addition, the complaint alleged two prior strike convictions, two prior serious felony convictions and two prior prison terms. Those six recidivist enhancements were based on respondent’s convictions for assault with a deadly weapon in 2005 and mayhem in 2008….

All told, respondent was facing a mandatory sentence of 25 years to life in prison under the Three Strikes law, plus 13 years for the remaining enhancements. At his arraignment he pleaded not guilty, and over the course of the next several months, his preliminary hearing was continued several times to facilitate a plea bargain. During that period, respondent was unable to reach a plea agreement with the district attorney. However, the trial judge indicated he would be willing to strike one of respondent’s prior strike convictions and sentence him as a second-strike offender to five years in prison if he pleaded guilty to the charges.

The prosecution vehemently opposed this proposed disposition. On March 15, 2019, it filed a lengthy sentencing brief arguing the interests of justice did not support the trial judge’s indicated sentence. According to the brief, respondent was convicted of 18 offenses during the 20-year period leading up his current crimes in 2018[:] {1997: Driving under the influence; 2000: Driving with a suspended license; 2003: Battering a police office, resisting arrest and using illegal drugs; 2004: Petty theft and disorderly conduct; 2005: Assault with a deadly weapon; 2006: Failure to appear in court; 2007: Assault and battery; 2008: Mayhem and battery with serious bodily injury; 2016: Driving under the influence; 2017: Hate crime, assault, battery, and driving under the influence.} Eighteen—a remarkable number considering how much of those 20 years he spent in custody.

Most of these earlier convictions were for misdemeanors. However, in 2003, respondent was convicted of felony battery on a police officer, and in 2005, he suffered his first strike conviction for stabbing a man outside a liquor store. Respondent had no prior relationship with the man he stabbed. He just walked up to him, accused him of being a child rapist/murderer and slashed his face with a knife. Respondent received a two-year prison sentence for the attack. However, following his release from prison, he soon reoffended.

In 2006, respondent and a companion contacted a nonwhite couple at a gas station and asked them if they had any spare change. When the woman said no, respondent began making racist statements to her. Then he began punching the man in the face and did not relent until a bystander intervened. In the end, the man suffered a lacerated lip that required eight stitches and for a time hindered his ability to speak and eat. Respondent was convicted of battery with serious bodily injury and mayhem—his second strike conviction—and sentenced to nine years in prison.

That was in 2008. Following his release from prison, respondent was quickly convicted for drunk driving. And in 2017, one year before the instant case arose, he reoffended yet again. The victim in that case was a Turkish man with dark skin and dreadlocks. Respondent approached him outside a liquor store and asked for a light. When the man said he didn’t smoke, respondent called him a “fucking nigger” and began pounding him with his fists. The incident led to respondent being convicted of a felony hate crime, but the trial court inexplicably reduced the conviction to a misdemeanor pursuant to section 17, subdivision (b) and sentenced him to a year in jail.

In addition to providing this information about respondent’s prior cases, the prosecution’s sentencing brief noted respondent has consistently violated the terms of his probation and parole throughout the years. The brief also reminded the court respondent presently had four misdemeanor cases pending against him that were unrelated to the present case. One of those cases was for punching a fellow inmate at the Orange County jail without provocation. Respondent boasted to jail authorities that he was not going to cease his violent behavior while in custody so long as he was forced to have contact with other inmates.

Given respondent’s violent and racist conduct over the past two decades, including his actions in the present case, the prosecution’s brief argued he was a threat to public safety and deserved to be incarcerated for an indeterminate life term pursuant to the Three Strikes law. Nevertheless, the trial judge stood by his indicated sentence of five years, which predictably prompted respondent to change his plea to guilty….

The trial judge exercised his discretion under section 1385, and struck respondent’s 2005 strike conviction in the interest of justice for the following reasons: 1) the circumstances surrounding the current offense “do not indicate a greater degree of danger to society[,]” 2) “[t]here was no injury to any person[,]” 3) “[t]here was no weapon used[,]” 4) respondent’s prior strike conviction is “14 years old and now remote in time,” and 5) respondent was pleading guilty at an early stage of the proceedings.

The judge sentenced respondent to a prison term of five years, representing the requisite double the two-year midterm on the criminal threats count, plus one year for the hate crime enhancement attendant to that count. In so doing, the judge not only struck respondent’s 2005 conviction for purposes of the Three Strikes law, he also struck all of the prior serious felony and prior prison term enhancements. Sentencing on the remaining two counts was stayed pending the completion of respondent’s five-year term. So a defendant with 38 years’ exposure who had been sentenced to 9 years for his previous felony, got 5 years for this one….

In reviewing this decision, we must keep in mind the Three Strikes law is designed to “punish repeat criminal offenders severely” and “drastically curtail a sentencing court’s ability to reduce the severity of a sentence by eliminating alternatives to prison incarceration[.]” To that end, the law mandates the imposition of a 25-year-to-life prison sentence in cases—such as this one—where the defendant is convicted of a serious or violent felony and has previously been convicted of two such felonies. In other words, “If, after having suffered two qualifying felony convictions, an offender commits a third qualifying felony, the Three Strikes law presumes he or she is incorrigible and requires a life sentence.

That doesn’t mean trial courts are powerless to deviate from the Three Strikes law. Under section 1385, the trial court is empowered to strike a prior strike conviction “in the furtherance of justice.” However, that great power should only be used in “extraordinary” circumstances, when the ends of justice demand it….

What … we find considerable here is that racism and misanthropy are motives that are not likely to diminish or disappear. A defendant who boasts about his fights with other inmates and has a long and depressing history of random violence is not likely to emerge from whatever portion of five years his sentence requires him to serve with a thoughtful and pacific approach to his fellow man….

Respondent was also given a tremendous break in 2017 when the court reduced his felony hate crime to a misdemeanor. This enabled him to avoid the imposition of a lengthy prison sentence at that time. {The record does not reflect how in the world that happened.} Yet, before the dust settled on that case, he went out and committed another hate crime, against Jasmine. His unrelenting criminal behavior since suffering his first strike conviction in 2005 demonstrates him to be an unchanged man, with a stubborn character and no discernible prospects for reform….

All of this convinces us the trial court abused its discretion in offering him a reduced sentence…. The judgment is reversed and the matter is remanded to permit respondent to withdraw his guilty plea and plead anew.

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Partisan Hypocrisy on Display in Supreme Court Ruling on Anti-Prostitution Pledge and the First Amendment

westendrf502889

Foreign groups that receive American funding to fight HIV and AIDS must still pledge to oppose sex work, following a U.S. Supreme Court ruling in favor of the requirement. A similar requirement for U.S. nonprofits was struck down as unconstitutional in 2013.

In the recent case, United States Agency for International Development v. Alliance for Open Society International, Inc., U.S. groups whose international affiliates must still abide by the rule sought to have it overturned, too, arguing that compelling anti-prostitution speech from these foreign affiliates was attributed to the American groups and therefore violated their First Amendment rights.

But in a 5-3 decision, the Court rejected their plea.

“In short, plaintiffs’ foreign affiliates are foreign organizations, and foreign organizations operating abroad have no First Amendment rights,” wrote Justice Brett Kavanaugh in the majority’s opinion. While anti-prostitution statements “may be incorrectly attributed to the American organizations,” these groups “are free to choose whether to affiliate with foreign organizations and are free to disclaim agreement with the foreign affiliates’ required statement of policy.”

Also siding in favor of the law were Chief Justice John Roberts and Justices Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, and Clarence Thomas. Justice Elena Kagan did not participate in the case.

In a dissenting opinion, Justices Stephen Breyer, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, and Sonia Sotomayor suggest that the court “asks the wrong question and gives the wrong answer. This case is not about the First Amendment rights of foreign organizations. It is about—and has always been about—the First Amendment rights of American organizations.”

“The last time this case came before us,” writes Breyer, “we held that the First Amendment forbids the Government from distorting their speech by requiring, as a condition of receiving federal funds, that they ‘pledge allegiance’ to a state-sponsored message. This time, the question is whether the American organizations enjoy that same constitutional protection against government-compelled distortion when they speak through clearly identified affiliates that have been incorporated overseas. The answer to that question, as I see it, is yes.”

“Just as compelling a clearly identified domestic affiliate to espouse a government message distorts respondents’ own protected speech, so too does compelling a
clearly identified foreign affiliate to espouse the same government message,” adds Breyer, rejecting the majority’s suggestion that American affiliates suffered no harm by simply contradicting the compelled messages put forth by foreign affiliates.

“When the Government demands as a condition of federal funding that their clearly identified affiliate ‘espouse a specific belief as its own,’ respondents may express a contrary view through some other corporate channel only on pain of appearing
hypocritical,” he writes. “Leveraging Congress’ Article I spending power to distort respondents’ protected speech in this way therefore violates respondents’ First Amendment rights—whatever else might be said about the affiliate’s own First
Amendment rights (or asserted lack thereof ).”

It’s easy to imagine the conservative justices in this case coming to the same conclusion as Breyer if the compelled speech were of a different variety.

Republicans have (rightfully) objected to, for instance, a California law compelling crisis pregnancy centers that oppose abortion to display messages about where women could get an abortion. Would that suddenly be OK if the California centers themselves were excluded but any international anti-abortion groups they partnered with to help pregnant women in need were still compelled to advertise abortion services?

It’s interesting to note that in 2018 when the Supreme Court decided that California’s compelled speech law was indeed unconstitutional, Justices Alito, Thomas, Gorsuch, and Roberts all agreed with that assessment. Meanwhile, the three justices now opposing the prostitution pledge on First Amendment grounds—Breyer, Ginsburg, and Sotomayor—all said that California’s crisis pregnancy center speech law should be upheld.

Wouldn’t it be nice if our Supreme Court justices could maintain the same respect for free speech and the First Amendment regardless of what subject that speech was about?

For now, however, it looks like the only way to remedy America’s rule requiring groups to denounce prostitution is for Congress to once again take up the issue.

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Coronavirus Cases Vs Fatalities: “Why The Next 6 Days Will Be Crucial”

Coronavirus Cases Vs Fatalities: “Why The Next 6 Days Will Be Crucial”

Tyler Durden

Tue, 06/30/2020 – 11:20

With the current state of coronavirus infections in the US increasingly about political considerations (especially whether a second wave will lead to another round of shutdowns, more economic carnage, millions more unemployed and crush Trump’s re-election chances) and far less about actual epidemiology and standards of care, two ideological camps have emerged – one which tries to overstate the impact of the pandemic in the US by focusing on the recent surge in new cases in sunbelt states (while ignoring the role recent protests and riots played in said surge), and another which, in downplaying the severity of the coronavirus, has been emphasizing the increasing testing which arguably also explains the jump in confirmed covid cases while underscoring the decline in covid-linked fatalities. This divergence is shown in the chart below.

Of course, this is a simplified assessment of the current debate. For a more nuanced take we go to JPM’s Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou who over the weekend wrote that the bank sees little evidence that the virus transmission rate, the so-called R, is increasing at an alarming rate.

Additionally, the JPM analyst notes that the evidence from China, Western Europe and from the North Eastern US states suggests that higher mobility post-lockdown has not seen a significantly higher R or a significant rise in hospitalizations. Furthermore, “the increase in cases in some Southern and Western US states and some countries such as Brazil or India do not imply a big second wave, but rather a situation where it takes longer for states to come out of the first wave as they either did not as strict lockdowns in place or relaxed them prior to shifting more meaningfully down the virus curve.”

Panigirtzoglou also reminds us that most of the US states reporting significant increases in reported cases have also reported large increases in testing. If we instead focus on hospitalization data from the CDC to gauge severity of the outbreaks, they suggest far more modest increases in most cases.

That said, there is a clear reflexivity in behavior in the context of the recent news, and while the severity thus far looks more muted, JPM points out that negative headlines as well as the risk of some roll-back of re-opening measures, as already announced in Texas, California, Arizona and New Jersey could induce more cautious behavior by people and potentially slow the growth recovery going forward. “If this downside risk materializes It would mean that we get more of a U rather than of a V shaped growth trajectory”, according to JPM.

Going back to the original point of “cases vs fatalities”, we hand the mic over to Nordea’s Andreas Steno Larsen who has argued in recent days that despite the recent deterioration in statistics, the US economy is unlikely to see similar shut downs to those experienced in March as the economic cost is simply too large.

As Larsen writes, pointing to the chart at the top, “the new increase in the amount of daily cases on a global scale is yet to morph into a re-increase in the amount of daily fatalities. Fatal cases are currently flatlining or maybe trending slightly upwards around 4-5000 a day. BUT (!), bear in mind that fatal cases are lagging the number of confirmed cases, why the jury is still out.”

The Nordea strategist then proposes that if the amount of fatal cases doesn’t increase more compared to current case count, “it likely reflects either i) that testing capabilities have been ramped up markedly, ii) that the virus is spreading in areas with a younger population (e.g. India and Brazil) or iii) that the CFR (case fatality ratio) is decreasing. We mostly buy into a combo of factor i) and ii).”

Larsen then echoes JPMorgan, and warning that consumption may take a “lock-down like” hit if the virus spread is not under  control, said that a “hammer and dance” strategy (swift total lockdown followed by a wide testing strategy) is ultimately the cheapest medium-term strategy. In this context, Europe is currently outsmarting the US on the Covid-19 strategy as is evident from the recent new case-spike in the US, which has led to setbacks for the re-opening momentum compared to Europe.

And, just like Panigirtzoglou, Larsen cautions against interpreting the renewed spike as a second wave, since it is mostly a result of a pick-up in cases in states that weren’t hit (materially) initially: “This is rather just the first material wave in areas that were not affected at the outset, while we are thankfully still yet to see a double-spike in e.g. the early epicentres as New York, Lombardia in Italy and Castilla La Nueva in Spain.”

That said, the Nordea strategist says that he doesn’t buy Trump’s message that “increased testing” is behind the case-spike as “the ratio of positive tests to negative tests are on the rise in e.g. Florida and Texas, which is a clear sign that the virus is spreading faster.”

While one may debate that, one thing Larsen is certainly correct about is that “with a clear increase in the virus momentum in Swing states, we would expect a big rhetorical battle between Governors and Trumps administration to be upcoming.”

As Larsen summarizes, “we are entering “crunch time” on fatalities since they should start to rise in early July given the lead/lag structure versus new cases.”

If fatalities don’t spike early in July, then people will conclude that it’s probably spreading amongst a part of the population that is not as sensitive, or that it is a resulted of increased testing or that the virus has become less deadly as we move into the summer months. Governors in Texas, California and Florida seem to have concluded that the below correlation holds, but the jury is still out.

His conclusion: “The next 6-10 days will be crucial.”

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Gold Smashes Above $1800 For First Time Since 2011

Gold Smashes Above $1800 For First Time Since 2011

Tyler Durden

Tue, 06/30/2020 – 10:59

Just a day after the counterfeit China gold bar story hit the market, precious metals are bid this morning with Gold futures surging above $1800 for the first time since Nov 2011…

Breaking above May’s highs…

We asked yesterday – What happens next: a panicked scramble to procure physical gold, one which even our friends at the BIS will be powerless to stop from sending the price of the precious metal to all time highs.  

It appears that has begun…

Silver also soared back above $18…

Gold is tracking higher along with global negative-yielding debt…

This move comes, as SchiffGold.com notes, as Citibank has joined other mainstream gold bulls calling for record gold prices.

Citi raised its gold price forecast this week. It now projects a three-month price of $1,825 per ounce and for the yellow metal to head into record territory in 2021. Citi analysts expect gold to eclipse the $2,000 mark early next year.

Citibank joins several other mainstream players that now project record gold prices in the coming months. Last week, we reported Goldman Sachs now forecasts record gold prices within the next 12 months and Bank of America released a note saying gold could break its US dollar record by the end of the year if it continues to breach key resistance levels.

Meanwhile, SGMC Capital Founder & CEO Massimiliano Bondurri told Bloomberg he thinks gold may hit close to $2,000 by the end of this year and could rally further due to dollar weakness.

It can rally much, much further than here, for a number of reasons. First of all, we expect dollar depreciation to continue, so that’s likely to benefit gold.”

And Edison Investment Research is even more bullish, saying gold has the potential to go as high as $3,000.

Gold has been on a strong run over the last couple of weeks as the number of coronavirus cases has surged. Bullion is up better than 12% in this quarter.

Safe-haven demand has given gold a boost, but the big driver is the Federal Reserve and its unprecedented money printing. As US Global CEO Frank Holmes recently pointed out, there is a strong correlation between the expansion of the central bank’s balance sheet and the price of gold. We’ve already seen the balance sheet balloon by over $3 trillion in response to the coronavirus pandemic and it currently stands at over $7 trillion. Holmes said he thinks the central bank will likely grow its balance sheet to $10 trillion before all is said and done. If history is any teacher, that could mean $4,000 gold.

Edison director Charles Gibson also emphasized the correlation between the Fed balance sheet and the price of gold.

The reason this is significant is because, since 1967, the price of gold has shown an extremely strong (0.909) correlation with the total US monetary base. Gibson. The more dollars that either are, or could be, in circulation, the higher the expected gold price.”

Along with bullishness for gold, we’re starting to see some mainstream concern about dollar debasement – something Peter Schiff has been talking about for years. In its note, Goldman Sachs cited “continued debasement concerns” and a weaker dollar as two of the factors it sees driving gold higher.

Yale economist Stephen Roach’s recently warned that “the era of the US dollar’s ‘exorbitant privilege’ as the world’s primary reserve currency is coming to an end.” Meanwhile, Guggenheim Investments Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd said that while “there are no signs the world is questioning the value of the US dollar” right now, it’s clear that the greenback is  “slowly losing market share as the world’s reserve currency.”

And he said buying gold is the key to offsetting the dollar’s decline.

With the Fed going all-in on financing the government deficit, the US dollar could be at risk to negative speculation of its status as the dominant global reserve currency. Investing in gold may help offset this trend.”

Is the world losing faith in fiat?

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3inv5eD Tyler Durden

Facebook Nerfs News Feed; Will Prioritize Original Reporting, Demote Stories By Anonymous Authors

Facebook Nerfs News Feed; Will Prioritize Original Reporting, Demote Stories By Anonymous Authors

Tyler Durden

Tue, 06/30/2020 – 10:48

As a flood of advertisers suspend their campaigns on Facebook over ‘hate speech’ (perhaps the convenient excuse they were looking for), the Silicon Valley social media giant announced that starting today, they’re radically altering the way people see news – prioritizing original reporting, while demoting stories from anonymous authors, according to a Tuesday announcement.

In other words, Facebook will now better control what information users are exposed to – as opposed to allowing content to organically trend, and articles written anonymously are now considered unsuitable regardless of merit.

Facebook does acknowledge that “in some areas, transparency can put journalists at risk so we are only doing this in limited markets to start, taking into account the press environment in which publishers operate,” however we’re guessing that’s simply legalese designed to cover that base. We shall see.

According to Axios, the company will use artificial intelligence to identify which original stories to promote, which means that subsequent reporting that provides missing context or alternate views on events will also be muted.

Axios also notes that Google admitted to adjusting its algorithms last year in order to boost original reporting.

Last October, Facebook rolled out a “News” tab, which includes reporting from the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, and BuzzFeed – which just fired a guy for plagiarism.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2VxoPac Tyler Durden

Tesla That Smashed Into State Trooper Conducting A Traffic Stop Found To Be On Autopilot

Tesla That Smashed Into State Trooper Conducting A Traffic Stop Found To Be On Autopilot

Tyler Durden

Tue, 06/30/2020 – 10:36

We now know that Tesla’s Autopilot was to blame – yet again – for another near-fatal accident that took place last December. A Massachusetts State Police trooper had just pulled over a vehicle on the side of Route 24 in West Bridgewater when the trooper’s vehicle was slammed into by the Tesla. 

The driver who was pulled over, Maria Smith, said: “It just happened so quick. Before I knew it, my car was flying forward. I looked behind me, and my whole back windshield was blown out. There was glass in my hair.”

A man “driving” the Tesla had slammed into the State Police cruiser that, in turn, wound up slamming into the stopped SUV.  Nicholas Ciarlone, the driver is now facing a negligent driving charge, according to NBC 10.

The car was “finally stopped several hundred feet ahead” by another state trooper.

Court documents shows that when a trooper responded to the scene to help, Ciarlone said that he “must not have been paying attention.” Recall, at the time of the accident, we reported that the driver said that he had put the car in Autopilot because he was checking on his dog in the back seat. 

Smith said: “I thought that was terrifying. To think the sensors are not equipped enough to pick up a police car with its sirens and lights on the highway.”

At the time of the accident, state police took it as an opportunity to remind people that there are no vehicles yet that are fully automated. 

“Regardless of your vehicle’s capabilities, when operating a vehicle your full attention is required at all times to ensure safe driving,” state police concluded.

Even the NBC 10 article pointed out a number of other Autopilot accidents that have occurred recently, including:

Auto safety watchdog Sean Kane said about Autopilot: “We are all involved in a clinical trial that we didn’t sign up for.”

Recall, we wrote in January 2020 that Senator Ed Markey had referred to Autopilot as a “flawed system”. He said at the beginning of the year that Tesla should rebrand its driver-assist technologies and take “additional steps to ensure drivers pay attention to the road while using the system.”

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3ePX1Wi Tyler Durden

White Voice Actors Who Stepped-Down From Playing Characters Of Color

White Voice Actors Who Stepped-Down From Playing Characters Of Color

Tyler Durden

Tue, 06/30/2020 – 10:15

Authored by Emma McSpadden via JustTheNews.com,

Several animated TV series, including long-running hits, have made a decision to no longer use white actors for the voices of characters from other ethnic backgrounds.

Fox Entertainment revealed Friday that “moving forward, The Simpsons will no longer have white actors voice non-white characters,” according to a statement.

The show has faced years of criticism over white actor Hank Azaria’s voiceover of Indian-American character Apu Nahasapeemapetilon.

Azaria voiced multiple characters of color on the long-running animated hit. In addition to Apu, an Indian-American immigrant who owned a convenience store, he voiced the recurring character Carlton Carlson, Jr., an African American Buddhist and friend and co-worker to the main character Homer Simpson. He also played minor characters of color, including a black police officer named Lou and Mexican-American Bumblebee Man.

But Apu has has been voiced by Azaria for 30 years.

“We respect Hank’s journey in regard to Apu. We have granted his wish to no longer voice the character,” the executive producers of “The Simpsons” said in a statement.

Azaria isn’t the only one stepping aside as the entertainment industry has come under growing pressure to provide more opportunities for non-white performers in the wake of the Black Lives Matter protests.

Here are some others:

Jenny Slate: Slate voiced Missy, a biracial character, on Netflix’s original series “Big Mouth.” She said in a statement on Instagram that she originally felt comfortable playing Missy because of the racial background of the character’s mother, who is Jewish and white. Slate, who is also Jewish and white, decided she could no longer portray Missy, who is part African-American.

“Ending my portrayal of ‘Missy’ is one step in a life-long process of uncovering the racism in my actions,” she said in the statement.

She had been voicing Missy since 2017.

Harry Shearer: Like Azaria, Shearer announced he would be stepping away from his roles playing characters of color on “The Simpsons.” He also voiced the African-American Buddhist Carlton Carlson, Jr., and played Dr. Julius Hibbert, an African-American doctor, among many other characters. He has been voice acting with the franchise since 1989.

Mike Henry: Henry for two decades voiced “Family Guy’s” Cleveland Brown, an African-American. He also voiced Cleveland as the main character on the “Family Guy’s” spinoff, “The Cleveland Show.”

“It’s been an honor to play Cleveland on ‘Family Guy’ for 20 years,” Henry stated in a statement. “I love this character, but persons of color should play characters of color. Therefore, I will be stepping down from the role.”

Kristen Bell: The star from the “Frozen” franchise debuted last month as Molly, a mixed-race character in “Central Park.” Within a month of the premiere date on May 29, Bell stepped down from the role, saying it was “time to acknowledge our acts of complicity.” 

“Playing the character of Molly on ‘Central Park’ shows a lack of awareness of my pervasive privilege,” Bell said in a statement on Instagram. “Casting a mixed race character with a white actress undermines the specificity of the mixed race and Black American experience.”

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2YKyX18 Tyler Durden