The 100th Anniversary of the Ratification of the Amendment That Led to Prohibition Is a Reminder of the Lasting Damage Bad Policy Can Do

One hundred years ago today, Nebraska became the 36th state to ratify the 18th amendment, which set Prohibition in motion a year later. Prohibition is widely, and rightly, remembered as one of the 20th century’s greatest policy mistakes, and it contains more than a few lessons that remain relevant today.

The decision by the states and the federal government to outlaw the manufacture, sale, and transportation of most alcohol in the United States was born of racism, nativism, government paternalism, and moralizing religiosity.

As Harvard’s Lisa McGirr writes in today’s New York Times, Prohibition was fueled by white protestant disdain for urban immigrants and the saloons they frequented. Prohibition was backed by the Ku Klux Klan, and was promoted by former members of the Anti-Saloon League. The influential Women’s Christian Temperance Union called for the deportation of anyone who violated alcohol law but wasn’t a citizen. German beer makers were tarred as un-American. It was a moral failure, driven as much by spite towards the nation’s increasing foreign-born population as by concern about excessive drinking.

But Prohibition also failed on its own terms. Instead of putting a stop to problem drinking, it criminalized it, making it more dangerous in the process. Prohibition created a violent black market for alcohol that helped empower and enrich violent criminals in the process. Problem drinkers continued to imbibe. Many drinkers switched from relatively low-proof beer to much higher proof alcohol, which was easier to transport.

Under Prohibition, drinking was still common—see, for example, this 1932 map of Harlem speakeasies, which suggests that boozy nightlife flourished—but black-market liquor was more expensive, lower quality, and sometimes dangerous to drink, since producers had to keep their work hidden from the view of authorities. That necessity bred vast corruption, as bootleggers paid off government officials, effectively making police and politicians, many of whom continued to drink themselves, partners in their illegal operations. This, in turn, bred distrust in the government, which was plainly hypocritical in its operations.

Yet the effect of Prohibition was not to turn Americans away from the government. As McGirr writes, Prohibition “cracked the door open toward other forms of regulation. Not only did Prohibition forge the edifice of the federal penal state, but growing numbers of Americans looked to the federal government for solutions to social and economic problems.” Even, and perhaps especially, in failure, it created demand for further intervention.

For today’s policymakers and policy influencers, Prohibition remains a cautionary tale about government overreach: It was a dysfunctional and badly run system predicated on ugly, populist notions and deluded ideas about the power of government to solve social problems. Not only did it fail to accomplish its goals, it created a host of unintended consequences that were worse than the problems it was supposed to solve.

The straightforward lessons of Prohibition are obviously applicable to any number of public policy issues making headlines today, from the opioid crisis to marijuana legalization to immigration, and our elected leaders would be wise to heed them.

But there is another lesson from Prohibition that is often overlooked—not from its beginning, but from its end, more than a decade later, with the 21st amendment, which repealed the 18th. That lesson is that, with enough time, even the worst policy mistakes can be corrected. Progress may be halting and frustrating, but America can learn from its mistakes and change its course. Yes, the effects of Prohibition lingered on for decades, in the damage it did to cocktail culture, in the institution of restrictive state liquor laws, and in the overall growth of the state. But there is little danger that full-on Prohibition will return, and slowly but surely the similarly restrictive policies that have governed marijuana are being undone.

So yes, the anniversary of Prohibition is a warning of all the ways that government policies can go wrong, and the lasting damage the worst of those policies can do. But its eventual reversal and tainted legacy also offer reasons for hope. Prohibition’s end is a reminder that the very worst policies, no matter their scale, aren’t locked in place, and we aren’t stuck with them forever.

from Hit & Run http://bit.ly/2ROqDeq
via IFTTT

Lehman, WorldCom And Now PG&E: The “Failing Angels” Are Back

One week ago when we wrote that with PG&E facing a threat of an imminent bankruptcy (which we now know will soon be realized), the most bizarre development in this latest corporate fiasco was that until the first week of January, both S&P and Moody’s had rated the California utility with over $30 billion in debt as investment grade even as its bonds and stocks were cratering ahead of what investors deemed to be an imminent Chapter 11 filing.

And while we have extensively discussed the multi-trillion threat posed by “falling angel” companies, or those corporations rated BBB – the lowest investment grade equivalent rating – as they slide into junk territory, the recent events surrounding PG&E highlight an even greater blind spot in the corporate bond arsenal: that of the failing angel.

As Bank of America’s Hans Mikkelsen wrote in a recent research note, Investment Grade defaults – defined as defaults within one year of being rated IG – are “rare and unpredictable” (even if in the case of PG&E, its downfall was quite obvious to many) as globally in more than half of years historically there were no HG defaults at all.

As such, Monday’s preannouncement by The Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PCG) that it intends to file Chapter 11 by January 29th…

… is a singular event and if the company follows through, it will become the third largest IG default since 1999, behind Lehman and Worldcom, with $17.5bn of index eligible debt.

The chart below lists all US index defaults since 1999 that occurred within one year of being included in ICE BofAML benchmark US high grade index. The three largest defaults in terms of index notional were Lehman ($34.9bn), WorldCom ($22.9bn) and CIT Group ($12.4bn).

In fact, as BofA adds, if PG&E does file before the end of the month the company will become a member of a much more exclusive group of “Failing Angel”, formerly-IG companies consisting of Enron, Lehman and MF Global that defaulted directly out of IG, before making it into the HY index as Fallen Angels.

Ironically, as Mikkelsen adds, until recently he had looked at PCG as set to become a large Fallen Angel from BBB accounting for 1.4% of the HY market. Now it appears the company plans to bypass the HY market, and proceed straight to default.

So as the world obsesses over the risk of “falling angels”, just how many other “failing angels” are hiding in the shadows, waiting for their moment to wipe out billions in stakeholder value as the economy continues to slowdown to what is now an inevitable recession, and just what will the knock-on effects of this “historic” default be? We will find out in less than two weeks.

via RSS http://bit.ly/2VXH7jv Tyler Durden

L.A.’s New Sheriff Rehires Deputy Fired for Alleged Stalking, Abuse

Sheriff Alex VillanuevaLos Angeles County’s new sheriff made it a campaign point that he was going to be focusing on the rank-and-file and rooting out cronyism from the leadership of the department. So it may come as a surprise to quite a few folks that he has just reinstated a deputy and campaign supporter who had been fired for allegedly stalking and physically attacking his ex-girlfriend.

Maya Lau at the Los Angeles Times reported Tuesday that Sheriff Alex Villanueva, who just took office in December, has hired back Deputy Caren Carl Mandoyan, who was fired in 2016 by then-Sheriff Jim McDonnell (whom Villanueva defeated in November’s election) for the alleged abusive behavior. Mandoyan’s firing was upheld by a county appeals board.

The Times notes that Mandoyan’s rehire is the only one of its type so far, but it certainly sends quite the message. Villanueva won’t explain why he rehired the deputy, explaining in a statement that California’s laws sealing police personnel records forbids doing so.

Prosecutors declined to file charges against Mandoyan, but the Times did get copies for an application for a restraining order the woman—a fellow deputy—had filed as well as a memo from the district attorney’s office describing the case. The woman was photographed with bruises and provided video evidence of him trying to force his way into her home. Prosecutors determined, though, that they didn’t have enough evidence to charge Mandoyan with a crime.

Mandoyan sued to get his job back but then dropped the suit last month after Villanueva was elected. Mandoyan was also part of Villanueva’s campaign, and he was photographed by the Times participating in a swearing-in ceremony in December for new hires at the sheriff’s department, holding the box of pins for the sheriff.

That this is how Villanueva chooses to move forward with his term as sheriff, after removing two officials from their jobs advising the department to make sure law enforcement officers are engaging in “constitutional policing,” has some folks concerned. From the Times:

“I’m a little flabbergasted and shocked that we’re now confronted with this kind of hiring policy,” Patti Giggans, the chairwoman of the Sheriff Civilian Oversight Commission, said of Mandoyan’s reinstatement. “It’s very disturbing. I think every commissioner will be very bothered by this.”

Out with the old administration’s cronyism, and in with the new? Villanueva’s public campaigning focused a lot on pushing immigration officials out of Los Angeles’ jails (McDonnell had allowed Immigration and Customs Enforcement staff to maintain an office in there). But Villanueva also made it very clear that he believed deputies and those in lower ranks were being unfairly punished. He says he wants to potentially create some sort of commission to rehear the cases of deputies who believe they had been wronged in some fashion by the sheriff’s department’s disciplinary procedures. Villanueva claims that he had previously been unfairly targeted for discipline by department leadership for political reasons and denied promotions.

We may end up learning more about Mandoyan’s case. With the start of the new year, new records about police conduct investigations are now covered by California’s Public Records Act. The sheriff’s department is supposed to release certain records about Mandoyan upon request, but there are limits and it’s not quite clear whether they’d apply here. The law covers cases of sexual assault by law enforcement officers or where they are caught engaging in deception on the job (like perjury, or concealing or fabricating evidence). So an investigation on domestic violence or stalking might not fall under the new release rules. But the Times has submitted a public records request to see what they can get about Mandoyan’s work history (similiarly, Reason has submitted a records request under the new rules for anything they have about Villanueva’s history of discipline).

What’s happening now should serve as a reminder of how hard it is to get rid of problem cops. But with these new public records laws, at least California residents can know who they are. Though law enforcement representatives are fighting to stop even that information from being released.

from Hit & Run http://bit.ly/2RwcjrC
via IFTTT

Why It’s Time To Disband the Women’s March

The upcoming Women’s March has been roiled in controversy and in-fighting. It has been accused both of catering to minority women and whiteFeminist Rally women too much. It’s progressive organizers have been accused of anti-Semitism and hobnobbing with Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan, a man who stands for everything—misogyny, homophobia—that progressivism stands against.

It would be a mistake to dismiss such bitter feuds as merely birthing pains or a clash of personalities that happen in any embryonic (no pun intended!) movement, I note in my column at The Week. The fact of the matter is that if the Women’s March can’t overcome its internal differences and agree on an agenda, it’s because women’s problems today pale in comparison to those faced by other groups. Women confront discrimination—but less by virtue of being women and more by virtue of being members of some other, more marginalized or reviled group. So it makes no sense to try and shoehorn these other groups into a mass feminist movement.

“The sooner American feminists realize this, the easier it might be for the left to identify an authentic social justice movement focused on eliminating real oppression faced by genuinely marginalized groups, not relatively marginal concerns of powerful ones,” I note.

If American feminists want to march somewhere, they should try joining their sisters in Kerala, India, where five million women formed a human chain to protest actual gender discrimination this month.

Go here to read the whole piece.

from Hit & Run http://bit.ly/2RQ66WD
via IFTTT

Did SCOTUS Just Rule That Pickpocketing Is a ‘Violent Felony’?

In a divided ruling yesterday, the Supreme Court seemed to set a low bar for what sort of robbery offenses count as a “violent felony” under federal law.

The case, Stokeling v. United States, involved a career criminal facing a 15-year minimum prison sentence following his latest conviction, this time on a federal gun charge. It split the Court along interesting lines. Justice Stephen Breyer, normally associated with the Court’s liberal wing, voted with Clarence Thomas, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Samuel Alito in the majority. Chief Justice John Roberts, meanwhile, joined his more liberal colleagues—Sonia Sotomayor, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, and Elena Kagan—in the minority.

The actual facts of the case were not in question. After he was arrested in Florida on suspicion of burglary in 2015, police found a handgun in Denard Stokeling’s backpack. He eventually pleaded guilty and was convicted of illegally possessing the gun and ammunition. Thanks to the Armed Criminal Career Act (ACCA), which sets penalties for people convicted on federal gun charges who have three or more “violent felony” convictions on their record, Stokeling faced a minimum of 15 years behind bars.

Stokeling did not dispute that he had previously been convicted of home invasion, kidnapping, and robbery. But he did say the 1997 robbery conviction, stemming from an incident where he tried to steal necklaces right off a woman’s neck, should not have qualified as a “violent felony.” Rather than a minimum sentence of 15 years in prison for his gun conviction, Stokeling said he should be facing no more than 87 months (a little over seven years), according to CNN.

At issue was the definition of a “violent felony” under the ACCA and whether or not it encompasses Florida’s definition of “robbery.” According to the ACCA, a “violent felony” is “any crime punishable by imprisonment for a term exceeding one year” that “has as an element the use, attempted use, or threatened use of physical force against the person of another.”

Florida law, meanwhile, says that “robbery” is “the taking of money or other property…from the person or custody of another…when in the course of the taking there is the use of force, violence, assault, or putting in fear.” And as Thomas noted in his majority opinion, the Florida Supreme Court “has explained that the ‘use of force’ necessary to commit robbery requires ‘resistance by the victim that is overcome by the physical force of the offender.'”

In other words, robbery is not necessarily classified as a “violent felony” under the ACCA. “Physical force,” on the other hand, is. But the question in this case, as SCOTUSblog pointed out in October, did not involve the level of physical force Stokeling used in the necklace incident. Rather, the Court had to determine whether it’s possible, under Florida’s definition of robbery, to commit the crime without using “physical force.” If it is, then convictions under Florida’s robbery law, and possibly other states’ robbery statutes as well, wouldn’t qualify as violent felonies under the ACCA.

Ultimately, the Court said it’s not, with Thomas writing that the ACCA “encompasses robbery offenses that require the criminal to overcome the victim’s resistance.”

“Robbery that must overpower a victim’s will—even a feeble or weak-willed victim—necessarily involves a physical confrontation and struggle,” he wrote for the majority. “The altercation need not cause pain or injury or even be prolonged; it is the physical contest between the criminal and the victim that is itself ‘capable of causing physical pain or injury.'”

Thomas was quoting the late Justice Antonin Scalia’s majority decision in Johnson v. United States, which also involved the ACCA. The kind of physical force that could conceivably injure a victim, Thomas argued, “includes the amount of force necessary to overcome a victim’s resistance.”

But “Florida robbery…covers too broad a range of conduct to qualify as a ‘violent felony’ under the ACCA,” wrote Sotomayor in her dissent. She particularly took issue with Thomas’s wide interpretation of the word “capable.” In Johnson, “the Court could not have meant ‘capable’ in the ‘potentiality’ sense,” she said. “Rather, it meant it in the sense that its entire text indicates: ‘force capable of causing physical pain or injury’ in the sense that a ‘strong’ or ‘substantial degree of force’ can cause physical pain or injury,” she added, referencing the Johnson decision.

Sotomayor provided a few examples to back up her reasoning. “As any first-year torts student (or person with a shoulder injury) quickly learns, even a tap on the shoulder is ‘capable of causing physical pain or injury’ in certain cases,” she wrote, alluding to her recent shoulder dislocation.

Even minor uses of force fall under Florida’s definition of robbery, she said. But these are not violent felonies. “For example, the force element of Florida robbery is satisfied by a pickpocket who attempts to pull free after the victim catches his arm,” Sotomayor wrote. “A thief who grabs a bag from a victim’s shoulder also commits Florida robbery, so long as the victim instinctively holds on to the bag’s strap for a moment.”

“Florida law applies the label ‘robbery’ to crimes that are, at most, a half-notch above garden-variety pickpocketing or shoplifting” she concluded. And locking up such offenders for 15 years is not all necessary, she suggested.

Sotomayor does bring up some interesting points. In this case, it’s hard to have sympathy for Stokeling, who’s clearly a career criminal (whether he deserves to be put away for 15 years is another question). But it’s certainly possible to envision a scenario where a habitual pickpocketer or shoplifter is eventually convicted on a gun charge and sentenced to prison for longer than he or she deserves.

It remains to be seen what ramifications this ruling will have on future cases. In the meantime, you can read Thomas’s majority opinion and Sotomayor’s dissent here.

from Hit & Run http://bit.ly/2CAAWZZ
via IFTTT

Watch Live: Parliament Holds No Confidence Vote In Theresa May

In his statement following Tuesday’s historic defeat of Theresa May’s Brexit plan, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn tabled a motion of no confidence in Theresa May, following through on a longstanding threat following weeks of speculation about whether Labour would actually make good.

And on Wednesday at 7 pm GMT ( 2 pm in New York), MPs are expected to vote on the motion, which is widely expected to fail, given that both the DUP – the small northern Irish party that helps shore up May’s government – and several Labour MPs have decided to back to back May. And few, if any, Tories (even the hard-core Brexiteers) are expected to break ranks and cross the floor).

MPs have been debating the motion for hours. Watch the vote live below:

 

Brexit related headlines have been hitting the tape all day as traders and political observers speculate about what direction the Brexit process will take going forward. Conflicting reports about the EU’s willingness to offer concession on the Irish backstop – seen as essential for anything remotely resembling May’s deal to win support in the Commons – were seemingly put to rest when Irish PM Leo Varadkar said Ireland would oppose any modifications to the deal as it stands.

Meanwhile, the notion that Article 50 will need to be delayed beyond the end of Q1 is looking increasingly likely.

Still, no clear alternative to May’s deal has taken shape, which is ne reason why the Brexit Committee suggested holding a series of “indicative votes”, which would allow MPs to express support for any measures that would earn their vote, on different options. But even this wouldn’t necessarily lend more clarity to the process, since it wouldn’t guarantee that a consensus would emerge. Talk of Brexit being canceled entirely has also been intensifying ahead of Wednesday’s vote.

If you’re wondering what to expect from the vote, we posted a handy guide earlier.

And the BBC published this handy graphic.

May

Should May be defeated – she only has a thin majority of only 13 votes assuming every Tory and every DUP member votes against the motion – it would usher in the third general election in four years (unless she succeeds in winning back the confidence of her MPs within 2 weeks).

via RSS http://bit.ly/2AQzAtK Tyler Durden

Is This The Real Reason Why Stocks Are Surging?

Wondering why US equity markets are soaring at a pace not seen since the March 2009 lows? Confused by the massive swings higher despite weak macro data, and tumbling earnings expectations?

Well, the answer is simple once again, “it’s not the economy, it’s the central banks, stupid!”

Q4 2018 saw global stock markets finally wake up to the fact that the world’s central banks were withdrawing liquidity and played catch-down to an ugly tightening reality. December’s contagion to American stocks was the final straw for the world’s elites however  and after the Mnuchin Massacre, it appears the Plunge Protection was ordered back into battle and as the chart below shows – central bank balance sheets suddenly started to grow – aggressively so… and that is what is dragging stocks higher, squeezing shorts at an unprecedented pace, and economically irrationally levitating P/Es despite a wall of uncertainty ahead.

Just like in 2018, 2017, and 2016, the start of the year has prompted a resurgence in the size of global central bank balance sheets… and just like in 2018, 2017, and 2016, global stocks (with US being the most liquid attractor of that flow) are soaring…

And just remember, The ECB is supposed to be tapering, The Fed is still on ‘autopilot’ for now, and The BoJ is being forced to taper its buying size…

So WTF is Draghi doing? It’s been a month since The ECB was supposed to have halted QE and yet the balance sheet is surging still?

So the simple lesson once again is – watch what they do, not what they say!!

via RSS http://bit.ly/2QTsGZY Tyler Durden

The Next Attorney General Says He Won’t Go After State-Licensed Marijuana Suppliers

At his confirmation hearing yesterday, William Barr, Donald Trump’s nominee to replace Jeff Sessions as attorney general, said he will not target state-licensed marijuana businesses, although he called the current conflict between federal prohibition and state legalization “untenable.” In response to questioning by Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), Barr said he would prefer a uniformly enforced federal ban on marijuana but recognizes that the Obama administration’s accommodation of the newly legal cannabis industry, as reflected in a 2013 memo from then-Deputy Attorney General James Cole, created expectations on which investors have reasonably relied.

Although Sessions officially rescinded the Cole memo a year ago, U.S. attorneys have shown little enthusiasm for cracking down on marijuana suppliers who comply with state law, and Barr said he is not interested in doing that either. “I’m not going to go after companies that have relied on the Cole memorandum,” Barr said. “My approach to this would be not to upset settled expectations and the reliance interests that have arisen as a result of the Cole memorandum. Investments have been made, so there [has] been reliance on it. I don’t think it’s appropriate to upset those interests.”

Barr, an old-fashioned drug warrior, made it clear that he is not a fan of legalization. “We either should have a federal law that prohibits marijuana everywhere, which I would support myself, because I think it’s a mistake to back off from marijuana,” he said, or “if we want a federal approach, if we want states to have their own laws, let’s get there, and let’s get there the right way.” In response to a subsequent question from Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), Barr clarified that he meant Congress should change federal law if it wants the states free to set their own marijuana policies.

Although Barr’s remarks will be reassuring to all those cannabis investors, it is worth reflecting on his position that federalism is something Congress deigns to grant the states, as opposed to something the Constitution requires. Today marks 100 years since the ratification of the 18th Amendment, the result of an arduous process that prohibitionists recognized as the only legal way to accomplish their goal, because otherwise the federal government would not have had the authority to ban the manufacture and sale of alcoholic beverages. After the 18th Amendment was repealed in 1933, Congress no longer had that authority (except with respect to interstate trafficking in violation of state law, which the 21st amendment specifically addressed). There is no logical reason why these observations about the limits of federal power would apply to alcohol but not marijuana.

In fact, Harry Anslinger, the ardent pot prohibitionist who ran the Federal Bureau on Narcotics (FBN) from 1930 to 1962, conceded that Congress did not have the constitutional authority to ban marijuana. In 1931, as Anslinger was preparing a model marijuana prohibition law for the states, The New York Times noted that “there are no Federal laws on the growth or use of marijuana, the plant being grown so easily that there is almost no interstate commerce in it.” The Times reported that Anslinger “said the government under the Constitution cannot dictate what may be grown within individual States.” As late as 1937, the Times was saying the FBN “has admitted that its hands are tied by the fact that the marihuana weed is indigenous to so many States that its distribution is an intrastate problem.”

Later that year, when Congress passed the law that effectively banned marijuana at the federal level, it was framed as an exercise of the tax power, like the Harrison Narcotics Tax Act of 1914 (or, to take a more recent example, the individual insurance mandate imposed by the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010). That’s the sort of maneuver Congress uses to accomplish indirectly what it lacks the authority to do directly. But when Congress passed the Controlled Substances Act of 1970, which includes a direct ban on marijuana, it abandoned any pretense of revenue raising. By then, thanks to a series of Supreme Court rulings that began a few years after the Marihuana Tax Act was passed, legislators took it for granted that they could do almost anything they wanted and justify it as an exercise of the power to regulate interstate commerce.

Those rulings culminated in Gonzales v. Raich, the 2005 decision in which the Court said that power somehow reaches a bag of marijuana in a cancer patient’s nightstand, even if the dried plant matter never crossed state lines, even if she grew it herself, and even if state law allowed her to do so. “If Congress can regulate this under the Commerce Clause,” Justice Clarence Thomas observed in his dissent, “then it can regulate virtually anything—and the Federal Government is no longer one of limited and enumerated powers.”

Even Harry Anslinger understood what the Supreme Court now routinely denies: that interstate commerce does not include conduct that is not interstate or not commercial, let alone conduct that is neither. Barr complained that state marijuana legalization is “almost like a back-door nullification of federal law.” But that is a bad thing only if the federal law is legitimate, which marijuana prohibition is not.

from Hit & Run http://bit.ly/2Cq9DBg
via IFTTT

Pelosi Moves to Cancel Trump’s State of the Union Speech. Good Riddance.

NPOn Wednesday, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D–Calif.) asked President Trump to delay his State of the Union address due to security concerns stemming from the government shutdown. Alternatively, Trump could simply submit a written statement in lieu of an in-person speech, noted Pelosi.

If Trump opted for the latter, this would be by far the best thing to come out of the shutdown. The elaborate spectacle of the modern State of the Union speech—a yearly production—is wholly unnecessary. The country would be well rid of it.

As Pelosi noted in her letter, for the first half of the country’s history, virtually all State of the Union speeches—formerly known as the President’s Annual Message to Congress—were delivered to the House of Representatives and read by a clerk. This became standard practice in 1801 with President Thomas Jefferson, who thought an in-person speech would be too reminiscent of a royal proclamation.

Jefferson’s tradition endured until President Woodrow Wilson took office in 1913. Wilson saw the event as an opportunity rally support for his expansive domestic agenda, and subsequent presidents have typically approached it the same way.

One hundred or so State of the Unions later, the executive branch is less constrained than ever before in U.S. history. Wilson’s tradition is not the sole or the predominant cause, but it does contribute to a vision of the president as the central and most important figure in the government, rather than one office amidst three co-equal branches. As Steve Chapman wrote for Reason in 2015, “The State of the Union address has grown in step with presidential presumption. It’s a conspicuous symptom of a dangerous malady: We expect too much of our presidents and limit them too little.”

Trump has not yet responded to Pelosi’s letter, and it’s hard to imagine him passing on a chance to hoard the spotlight. But if the shutdown somehow ends up forcing the government to cancel the State of the Union, I say good riddance.

from Hit & Run http://bit.ly/2FvNhCj
via IFTTT

“How I Made $1 Million On Bitcoin… And Lost It All Again”

Authored by Peter McCormack via The Guardian,

“I got caught up in the hype. Then the bubble burst …I kept thinking, there’s no point selling now…”

Until 2016, I ran an advertising agency in London. At our peak, we were highly successful; I had a team of 35 people, a £3m turnover and a Covent Garden office. When the agency folded, I decided to invest in bitcoin.

Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency, a type of electronic cash that allows people to spend or trade via a peer-to-peer network without the involvement of banks or other intermediaries. It is a cheap, efficient way of transferring funds or holding value, which can be converted back into sterling at any time. I had used it before to buy treatment online for my mother after she was diagnosed with cancer. I had also dabbled with investing in it in 2013, and made and lost some money: bitcoin is prone to sudden fluctuations in value. But the market seemed to have moved on, and I decided it could be a good way to make some profit on my savings.

At first I deposited £5,000; at the time, January 2017, bitcoins were about $600, so I bought seven or eight and spent the rest on other cryptocurrencies. But over the next few weeks I became hooked and ploughed in a large chunk of money – £23,000 in all. I remember telling people, “I really think the value of bitcoin could rise to $2,000 this year.” I could never have predicted it would peak at 10 times that. By the middle of spring 2017, my investment had risen to about $300,000, and by the summer it was at half a million. Media interest in bitcoin was growing and friends kept asking how they could get into it, so I started a Facebook group, then a website and finally a podcast devoted to the subject. As excitement built, more and more people got involved, forming the conditions for a bubble; but many of us were too caught up in the hype to exercise caution.

At the end of 2017, bitcoin had reached almost $20,000 and my portfolio had ballooned to about $1.2m.

That is when I got a little out of control. I have always been an entrepreneur, and since I was a kid I had dreamed of buying my local football club, Bedford Town, becoming chairman and getting them into the league. I thought the project might cost £5m, so that was the figure I decided to aim for. I estimated I could get there within six months.

By this time I was travelling the world doing interviews for my podcast, taking friends out to expensive restaurants and buying extravagant gifts for my family. I am not the kind of person who puts everything away for the future, and though I donated £6,000 to my local hospital, much of my spending was quite frivolous. It might have been more sensible to buy a couple of houses, but I became overambitious. This felt like my one shot at achieving that childhood dream.

At the end of January 2018 the bubble burst and bitcoin’s value suddenly fell. There had been a few drops during 2017 but it had bounced back, so I was not too worried. But over the rest of the year, I watched it sink lower and lower, along with the other cryptocurrencies I had invested in, all the time thinking, “Well, there’s no point selling now…” That was my attitude throughout last year, as bitcoin’s value continued to fall. Pretty much everything I had built up was wiped out.

There are many who invested a lot more than I did and ended up with far greater losses. I wish I had taken everything out before the bubble burst, but I do not waste too much time on regret. I have earned money in the past through hard work and enjoyed it more. At the moment, I am enjoying making my podcast, which provides more than enough money to live on. I have sold most of my bitcoin, which is currently worth about $4,000 apiece, to give me a cushion in case the business has a bad month. But if I had to choose between the $1.2m and the podcast, I would let the money go again – I love what I do now.

I still believe that bitcoin is a force for good. I recently interviewed Alex Gladstein of the Human Rights Foundation, who was explaining how it helps people living in authoritarian regimes to prosper – for example, women in Afghanistan who are not allowed to open bank accounts can still work and get paid in bitcoin. It is a step in the right direction. My main focus now is exploring how bitcoin could help stabilise an increasingly volatile world.

via RSS http://bit.ly/2AKPpSD Tyler Durden