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To all the Tesla bulls who bought earlier in the week on Musk’s Tweet…

China stocks rebounded overnight

 

Mixed day for Europe, Germany up, Italy down…

 

Nasdaq and Small Caps in the US led the day (short squeeze, see below) but Dow, S&P, and Trannies could not hold a bid…and the close was really ugly (like yesterday)…

Nasdaq’s 8th gain in a row – best streak since Oct 2017.

2nd day in a row with  a weak close…

 

“Most Shorted” stocks have been squeezed at every open so far this week…

 

FANG Stocks managed gains on the day – but are holding below the FB gap…

 

 

Tesla tumbled… erasing all the “going private” tweet gains…

 

Seems like Tesla bondholders were on to it all along…

 

The big banks erased the week’s gains today…

 

Amid all the chaos, Treasuries were bid…

 

With 30Y yields tumbling after PPI…

 

And the yield curve flattened…

 

The Dollar Index ripped higher today (but remains in a week-long range for now)…

 

EURUSD is testing the critical 1.15 level…

 

Emerging Market currencies were a bloodbath…

Led by a 5% plus collapse in the Turkish Lira – the biggest drop since Oct 2008…

 

Russia and Turkish bond yields spiked…

 

Cryptos managed a small rebound today after an ugly week…

 

Despite the surge in the dollar, commodities trod water today (no bounce in crude)…

 

Finally, we note that market breadth remains seriously lagging – Nasdaq near new highs and yet fewer and fewer of its members are even above their 200DMA…

 

And finally finally, who do you trust? US Macro data, the Nasdaq (and its 4 or 5 stock driver), or the NYSE Composite of over 2000 stocks and $23 trillion in market cap…

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In the second quarter of 2018, one in which the global economy was shaken by the rapid escalation of Trump’s trade war, and in which central banks were one after another hinting at their own QE tapering and rate hiking intentions to follow in the Fed’s footsteps, what was really taking place was another central bank buying spree meant to boost confidence that things are now back to normal, using “money” that was freshly printed out of thin air, and spent to prop up risk assets around the world by recklessly buying stocks with no regard for price or cost.

Nowhere was this more obvious than in the latest, just released 13F from the massive hedge fund known as the “Swiss National Bank.” What it showed is that, just like in the prior quarter, and the quarter before that, and so on, the Swiss central bank went on another aggressive buying spree and following a modest selloff in the first quarter which was a mirror image of the SNB’s buying spree during Q1 2017 – the Swiss central bank boosted its total holdings of US stocks to $87.5 billion, up 6.6% or $5.4 billion from the $82.0 billion at the end of the first quarter, and just shy of their all time high.

On a share basis, the SNB added some 33.659 million shares to its total holdings of US stocks, which at the end of Q2 stood at 1.320 billion.

Some notable observations: in the second quarter, after the SNB printed money out of thing air, it then added 4.85 million shares of AT&T, 673K shares of MSFT, 305K shares of AAPL, 272K shares of FB, 46K shares of AMZN, 423K shares of XOM. And according to some calculations, the SNB’s portfolio now generates over $1 billion worth of dividends, or as @SheepleAnalytics notes, “they print money and we ship them our profits.”

While we are far beyond the point of debating central bank intervention in equity markets (we do want to remind readers that until several years ago, it was considered “fake news” to even mention it, and those who accused central bankers of manipulating stock markets were said to be paranoid tinfoil basement dwellers), we want to point out that unlike the BOJ, which at least keeps its capital markets distortion local, the SNB, which likewise creates money out of thin air (then sells it for dollars in an attempt to keep the Swiss franc depressed) is actively causing substantial price distortions in the US while collecting billions in annual dividends from US corporations which are then remitted to various Swiss cantons and regional governments to fund local growth.

While we doubt this will be investigated with stocks at all time highs, we look forward to the Congressional hearings after the crash when the scapegoating and fingerpointing begins as it always does, and everyone is “stunned” to learn that central banks were responsible for blowing the biggest asset bubble the world has ever seen by directly buying stocks.

What else did the SNB reveal in its 13F? Two main things.

First, its top 20 holdings are as shown in the following chart. The central bank was clearly not shy in adding to its top positions. And more notably: it was most aggressive in adding to tech names, just in case there is still confusion why with the rest of the stock market flat YTD, it was tech names that drove the S&P500 higher.

And while we have yet to learn if Warren Buffett was actively frontrunning the SNB once again during the quarter by buying even more AAPL shares, something the Berkshire 10Q suggested is very likely, a look at the SNB’s holdings of AAPL stock shows that after some modest selling in the first quarter, in Q2 its AAPL holdings again increased modestly from 16.570 million to 16.874 million shares, making the SNB a larger holder of Apple than Franklin Resources, Dimensional and the State of New York (with 16.7, 16.2, and 14.1 million shares respectively), and just behind Janus with 19.4 million shares, demonstrates one of the main reasons why the Nasdaq has continued to hit new all time highs on a daily basis for much of 2018.

The chart above also explains why unlike Morgan Stanley, which for the past month has been urging clients to exit their tech holdings, Goldman Sachs remains bullish on tech stocks and the Nasdaq: after all, when a central bank can and does create money out of thin air, then splurges on the handful of tech companies that have the biggest impact on the broader market, pushing both the Nasdaq and all indices higher, what is the point of even talking about “risk”?

Source: SNB

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North Korea has slammed US officials for trying to undermine the North Korea denuclearization deal behind President Trump’s back, according to the country’s official news agency, KCNA. 

Pyongyang pointed out that that in addition to taking “such practical denuclearization steps” as discontinuing its ICBM testing and dismantling nuclear facilities, they allowed the repatriation of US-POW/MIA remains. 

“We hoped that these goodwill measures would contribute to breaking down the high barrier of mistrust existing between the DPRK and the U.S. and to establishing mutual trust,” reads the statement, “However, the U.S. responded to our expectation by inciting international sanctions and pressure against the DPRK.”

The U.S. is attempting to invent a pretext for increased sanctions against the DPRK by mobilizing all their servile mouthpieces and intelligence institutions to fabricate all kinds of falsehoods on our nuclear issue. They made public the “North Korea Sanctions and Enforcement Actions Advisory” and additional sanctions, and called for collaboration in forcing sanctions and pressure upon us even at the international meetings. –KCNA

And all of this is being done despite President Trump’s intention to negotiate in good faith, reads the statement. 

Now the issue in question is that, going against the intention of president Trump to advance the DPRK-U.S. relations, who is expressing gratitude to our goodwill measures for implementing the DPRK-U.S. joint statement, some high-level officials within the U.S. administration are making baseless allegations against us and making desperate attempts at intensifying the international sanctions and pressure. –KCNA

“As long as the U.S. denies even the basic decorum for its dialogue partner and clings to the outdated acting script which the previous administrations have all tried and failed, one cannot expect any progress in the implementation of the DPRK-U.S. joint statement including the denuclearization.“

In other words, despite Trump’s intentions – members of his administration are undermining the historic progress made in US-North Korea relations. 

***

Pyongyang, August 9 (KCNA) — The spokesperson of the Foreign Ministry of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea made public the following press statement on Thursday:

At the first historic DPRK-U.S. summit meeting and talks, the top leaders committed to work together toward putting an end to the extremely hostile relations through confidence building and establishing new DPRK-U.S. relations in favor of the requirements and interests of the peoples of two countries and to make active contribution to peace, security, and prosperity on the Korean Peninsula and over the world.

Whereas we already took such practical denuclearization steps as discontinuing nuclear test and ICBM test fire, followed by dismantling the nuclear test ground since the end of last year, the U.S. insisted on its unilateral demand of “denuclearization first” at the first DPRK-U.S. high-level talks held in Pyongyang in early July.

Nevertheless, for the sake of building confidence between the DRPK and the U.S., a foremost and indispensable process for implementation of the joint statement of the DPRK-U.S. summit, we took such broadminded measures as repatriating POW/MIA remains.

We hoped that these goodwill measures would contribute to breaking down the high barrier of mistrust existing between the DPRK and the U.S. and to establishing mutual trust. However, the U.S. responded to our expectation by inciting international sanctions and pressure against the DPRK.

The U.S. is attempting to invent a pretext for increased sanctions against the DPRK by mobilizing all their servile mouthpieces and intelligence institutions to fabricate all kinds of falsehoods on our nuclear issue. They made public the “North Korea Sanctions and Enforcement Actions Advisory” and additional sanctions, and called for collaboration in forcing sanctions and pressure upon us even at the international meetings.

Worse still, the U.S. is resorting to such highly despicable actions as hindering international organizations’ cooperation with our country in the field of sports and forcing other countries not to send high-level delegations to the celebrations of the 70th founding anniversary of the DPRK.

Now the issue in question is that, going against the intention of president Trump to advance the DPRK-U.S. relations, who is expressing gratitude to our goodwill measures for implementing the DPRK-U.S. joint statement, some high-level officials within the U.S. administration are making baseless allegations against us and making desperate attempts at intensifying the international sanctions and pressure.

Expecting any result, while insulting the dialogue partner and throwing cold water over our sincere efforts for building confidence which can be seen as a precondition for implementing the DPRK-U.S. joint statement, is indeed a foolish act that amounts to waiting to see a boiled egg hatch out.

The international society is struck by this shameless and impertinent behavior of the U.S., and we also closely follow the U.S. behavior with high vigilance against their intentions.

As long as the U.S. denies even the basic decorum for its dialogue partner and clings to the outdated acting script which the previous administrations have all tried and failed, one cannot expect any progress in the implementation of the DPRK-U.S. joint statement including the denuclearization, and furthermore, there is no guarantee that the hard-won atmosphere of stability on the Korean Peninsula will continue.

We remain unchanged in our will to uphold the intentions of the top leaders of the DPRK and the U.S. and to build trust and implement in good faith the DPRK-U.S. joint statement step by step. The U.S. should, even at this belated time, respond to our sincere efforts in a corresponding manner. -0-

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Bloomberg had a terrific title yesterday when describing the cash flow troubles that have befallen MoviePass, which continues to burn unprecedented amounts of cash and is on the verge of insolvency as a result of its “business model” which loses money on every single transaction: “MoviePass CEO Hopes Subscribers Will Use Service Less Frequently.” Because what self-sustaining company wants its users to use its services more…

It now appears that the guys in the NBC Universal biz dev team also read that article and a lightbulb went off above their heads, because according to the Information, as the US cable giant hopes to steal away market share from Netflix and Amazon, it has come up with a novel idea: paying customers to use its service.

The battle to win over viewers online may be reaching new levels of intensity. Comcast’s NBCUniversal is considering the launch of a streaming service that would pay people to watch it.

The tentative name for the service is Watch Back and it would feature episodes of TV shows and web series from NBCUniversal’s own TV networks—like NBC, USA and Bravo—as well as those from outside web sites. To entice people to watch, Watch Back viewers would earn points that could be redeemed for gift certificates, according to several people with knowledge of the plans.

The Information also notes that the service would not have exclusive content and be more of a marketing effort, at least initially, although depending on its success to entice viewers that toom ay change.

While there are no details on what the pricing structure would look like – whether customers will pay a flat fee and get money back or if the service will be free with incremental upside depending on TV time – the deflationary impact of this approach, should it be brought to fruition will be dramatic, and may result in substantial revisions to market share of the coveted online streaming market. And then one wonders if Disney, which is rolling out its own “Netflix Killer” will follow suit.

In any case, the NBCU proposal implies that many headaches are in store for Reed Hastings and his streaming juggernaut which already has nearly $10 billion in annual content costs alone, as he struggle to offset not only the recent slowdown in user growth, but a revolutionary reversal in the payment structure of TV viewing, where advertisers will effectively be now paying viewers for their TV time.

That said, the market does not appears too worried, and Netflix stock has yet to react to the news.

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Authored by Thad Beversdorf via SpendIndie.com,

More than $2 trillion in cash distributions will be gifted to shareholders by S&P 500 CEO’s this year.  More than ever before. But why? 

Why do CEO’s distribute cash to secondary market speculators?  These speculators haven’t provided any capital to the balance sheet and haven’t added to the income statement or cash flow statement of the companies they are speculating on.  So why do CEO’s spend so much effort and capital appeasing them?

Market cap is the benchmark by which a company distributes cash (i.e. div yield).  But market cap, as determined in the secondary markets, is a theoretical asset that doesn’t generate revenue, profit or cash flow for the firm.  Meaning cash payments are tied to an ‘asset’ that has no relevance to a firm’s operations.  

Paying dividends against an non-producing asset i.e. market cap that generates no return for the company is incredibly destructive.  There becomes a dangerous disconnect between the return on capital the company raised/invested and the cash distribution.   

In this sense, market cap is a massive hindrance to the firm’s capacity for productive investment as capital is eaten up paying out against an asset that hasn’t generated any return.  The destructive force of this connect is exacerbated by the stock buy backs whose sole purpose is to drive market cap higher.   

And for what benefit?  What does a higher market cap or a higher valuation do to improve the operation and long term success of the business?  Historically market cap was a represenation of operational performance and expected future growth but it has now become the objective. 

Apple’s numbers are mediocre.  But they are distributing $110 billion in cash this year so it doesn’t matter.  They hit a trillion dollar market cap.  That puts its price-to-sales in line with Amazon, which has a 3 year revenue growth rate 7x higher than Apple’s (32% vs. 4.5%).  Amazon’s growth rate continues to accelerate while Apple actually lost overall marketshare dropping from second largest to the third largest seller of smartphones, something that hasn’t ever happened.  And so why would a firm that is losing marketshare not be putting its capital to work?

The proof is in the pudding.  Amazon doesn’t distribute cash to speculators.  It attracts speculators by driving expected future growth.  The rest of the market is attracting speculators by paying them cash.  In effect, CEO’s are investing in market cap today rather than growth tomorrow.  The result is that Amazon is in a league of its own, trouncing incumbants in any sector it enters because it invests in being better.  

Adding to the absurdity is that these disconnected and disproportionately large cash payouts are going to a group of speculators that have never contributed to the balance sheet, income statement or cash flow statement.  Buffett via Berkshire’s share of Apple’s $110 distribution is more than $6 billion.  Why?

Note in the following chart the left tail of the chart is the Great Depression era and the right side is today. 

The moral of the story is that when market cap becomes the objective of capital rather than a representation of productive capital allocation, productive investment is replaced with financial investment. 

When market cap is being driven by something other than expected future growth derived from productive investment it is coming at the cost of expected future growth due to lack of productive investment.  Read that again.

And look, if just one company was doing this it isn’t an issue but when all corporations are doing this the result is financial market acceleration and macroeconomic deceleration and ultimately contraction.  Sound familiar?

Markets have accelerated to record highs while economic growth has decelerated to record lows. 

At this point financial markets require perpetual money injections to prevent market cap from collapsing. And so the economy simply cannot compete with financial markets for available capital. 

Enter the Fed with rate hikes and the end of the bubble cycle.  A market cap reset is required for future growth.  The Fed is aware and the beginning of this bull cycle end is now in play.

*  *  *

At Spendindie we encourage society to take a more cognitive role in reshaping a system currently benefiting far too few.  As consumers we hold a tremendous amount of potential economic power. 

You can checkout what we’re up to here

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We first met “The Dude” in March of 2016: no, not Jeffrey Lebowski, but an unknown HFT algo which would step in during times of Turkish market stress and bid up stocks with reckless abandon. Recall:

“There’s a giant bull in the [Turkey stock market] china shop,” exclaims one trader, but (unsually for Turkey), “nobody knows anything for sure” about who he, she, or it is. As Bloomberg reports, a mystery investor who first appeared a year and a half ago with $450 million of bets on a single day, almost double the market average, is now executing major transactions with increasing frequency, scaring away competitors who can’t figure out when he or she will strike next, traders and bankers said.

At least one European bank’s clients have stopped taking short-term positions in Turkish stocks after concluding the investor is using an algorithmic system in which complex formulas decide trades, while others are avoiding the market until they have more information, a person familiar with the matter said.

“Herif,” or “the dude,” has helped lift the average daily trading volume on the Borsa Istanbul almost 8 percent this year, compared with a 15 percent decline on the main exchange in Warsaw and a 27 percent plunge in Moscow, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

While little was known about the source of these buying sprees, whoever it was had skipped from one local brokerage to the next honing his system and had turned the latest, Yatirim Finansman, into the biggest net buyer on the market by far.

As a result, Yatirim Finansman became well known to Istanbul traders: starting in 2016, it became the talk of the town for its aggressive trades which singlehandedly steered the direction of the stock market, including moves right before last year’s referendum. Traders started referring to the mystery investor or investors, whose identity has never been revealed, as “the Dude.”

Nearly two and a half years later, “The Dude” is back with a vengeance because as Bloomberg reports this morning, a single brokerage in Istanbul – the same one that the mystery trader used during his 2016 rampage – “has been placing outsize bets on Turkish stocks at a time when less adventurous investors are bracing for a crisis.”

Yatirim Finansman was a net buyer of 565 million liras ($105 million) in equities this week, by far the largest bet on the market in either direction and almost tripling the second-most active buyer, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s helped to make the equity gauge a major outlier, up by 3 percent even as the lira plunged by about 6 percent to record lows and bond yields surged to all-time highs.

The mystery algo has returned at a time of economic in Turkey turmoil amid collapsing diplomatic relations between Ankara and Washington over the imprisoned American past Andrew Brunson who has been jailed in Turkey for two years, and whose continued house arrest resulted in sanctions being announced last week against Ankara by the Trump administration.

And while the threat of successively more damaging economic sanctions should Turkey continue to hold him, coupled with soaring inflation as a result of Erdogan’s prohibition for the central bank to raise interest rates, has sent almost every asset class in Turkey tumbling… except stocks. The surprising resilience of the Borsa Istanbul in the context of the crashing Turkish lira and record high interest rates is shown below.

Like in 2016, it remains unclear whether the “Dude’s” orders on Yatirim Finansman’s come from one individual or a group of investors, and it’s also unclear whether the source of the flows now is the same as before. Citing the confidentiality of its clients, Yatirim Finansman predictably declined to comment,

However, what we do know is that it is unlikely that the “trader” is an ordinary human. The former CEO of Yatirim, Seniz Yarcan, provided some details into the trades in 2016, telling Dunya newspaper that the abnormally large trades were “not an investor, but a big, new fund investor profile that trades with algorithms.” This was confirmed at the time by Isik Okte, an investment strategist at TEB Invest/BNP Paribas:

Borsa Istanbul moved its servers to a new data center [in 2015] in the hope of attracting business from automated traders before it restarts its long-delayed initial public offering. HFT firms often place their servers in the same center to get the fastest possible connection to an exchange’s computers. Okte said he’s convinced the unknown investor is doing just that.

“This algo guy just discovered a new market and he’s running his own show because there’s not enough competition, but it will come,” Okte said. “We are in the very early stages, but we know from developed markets that machines always win this game.”

But whoever is behind the HFT algo, they have a clear mandate: keep the market propped up. The bulk of the Dude’s trades this week was directed at the nation’s biggest private bank.

It bought a net 96 million liras worth of shares in Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS. That was followed by investments in petrochemicals producer Petkim, steelmaker Kardemir, defense equipment producer Aselsan and another steelmaker, Erdemir. Its biggest net sales were in Halkbank, a state-run lender facing the prospect of a fine from the U.S., and media conglomerate Dogan Holding.

Another notable divergence: the positive impact of the “Dude” on the local stock market matches that of central banks, and despite being vastly outnumbered, his dominance remains: of 48 Turkish brokerages tracked by Bloomberg, 31 have been net sellers this week.

The biggest net sales came via Is Yatirim, Yapi Kredi and Merrill Lynch. Following Yatirim Finansman on the buying side were Credit Suisse Istanbul and Deutsche Securities.

And just like ordinary investors now praise central banks for propping up markets and making a mockery of price discovery, so the Turks are delighted that “The dude” abides:

The Turkish stock exchange has welcomed the larger trades via Yatirim Finansman and its mystery investors.

“This ‘dude’ is buying from our market, why should we be concerned?” bourse Chairman Himmet Karadag said in an interview with Bloomberg last year. “He is doing good stuff.”

Still, every artificial manipulation can only last so long, and in the case of Turkish stocks, it is only a matter of time before Turkey’s economic collapse overpowers even this remarkable algo. After a 40% plunge this year, Turkish stocks are trading near a nine-year low in dollar terms. But the real risk for Turkey is not whether or not the “Dude” continues soaking up all the selling, but whether that “Other Dude”, executive president Erdogan, remains in charge of the economy, the central bank and ultimately, the market, which has just sent the Turkish lira to a new all time low, plunging more than 30% YTD.

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Bloomberg reports that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is intensifying its scrutiny of Tesla’s public statements in the wake of Elon Musk’s tweet Tuesday about taking the electric-car company private. “funding secured.”

Additionally, SEC enforcement attorneys in the San Francisco office were already gathering general information about Tesla’s public pronouncements on manufacturing goals and sales targets, according to the people who asked not to be named because the review is private.

All the gains from yesterday’s exuberant tweet and headline-fest are gone.

Bloomberg notes that the SEC inquiry is preliminary and won’t necessarily lead to anything more formal.

Tesla still hasn’t disclosed any sources of financing for the deal and no one has stepped forward publicly to say they’re backing the plan.

Once again Tesla bonds were right first…

We notice Musk is a little quieter than normal on Twitter today…

 

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Authored by John Stossel via Townhall.com,

Sen. Bernie Sanders is all over the internet!

New York Magazine says he is “quietly building a digital media empire.”

Mic.com calls it “one of the most powerful progressive media outfits in America.”

This matters because bettors rank Sanders one of the top four Democratic presidential contenders.

I resent Sanders’ “empire” because it pushes bad ideas, yet his videos are viewed more often than mine. His videos have been seen almost a billion times.

Some are just recordings of him making noisy speeches, ranting about how Republican policies hurt Americans. For example, “Tens of thousands of them will die” if Obamacare is repealed. (He ignores the fact that more will live if the economy is allowed to grow.)

Other Sanders videos are edited, produced pieces, much like videos that I make.

One powerful one begins with a President Trump speech where the president recites the song “The Snake,” in which a woman nurses a snake back to health — only to have it bite her. “You knew damn well I was a snake before you took me in!” shouts the president. He was arguing against loose immigration controls.

But the video cuts to Trump calling criminals “animals,” and an “expert” says Trump is using “the same kind of language that the Nazis used.”

The video never mentions that when Trump said “animals,” he was talking about MS-13.

A recurring Sanders video theme is that Trump supporters are “faces of greed” who scheme to get even richer by doing things like abolishing the estate tax.

Sanders never mentions that the estate tax taxes money that had already been taxed; it’s double taxation.

He could still argue against repealing it, but he ought to be fair.

Many Sanders videos demand that government make college free.

His staff interview themselves.

May Ayad, a Sanders associate media producer, tells us, “It’s not just one or two people saying, ‘I can’t afford to go to college.’ This is like the majority of college students in the entire nation!”

Winn Decker, research intern for the Senate Budget Committee, whines, “Student loans kept me from doing things like purchase a home.”

Sanders staff assistant Terrel Champion tells viewers, “Somebody has to foot the bill. The government should assume that responsibility!”

There’s no mention of how existing government subsidies already raised the price of tuition, enabling it to grow faster than the rate of inflation. There’s also not a peep about how Sanders’ own wife bankrupted a college in Vermont.

It’s just: Government must pay more!

Government should take responsibility for your health care, too, says a Sanders video that describes MSNBC anchor Ali Velshi as a “Canadian capitalist” who says, “Nowhere on Earth is there a free health insurance market that works.”

The video looks like a debate between Velshi and Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, but it’s edited so that Jordon doesn’t get to say much.

It’s easy to win an argument if you barely let the other guy speak.

There’s also no mention of the fact that the Urban Institute says Sanders’ “Medicare for All” plan would cost the federal government $32 trillion between 2017 and 2026.

Maybe the biggest theme of Sanders’ videos is the wealth gap, which Bernie says “is not only immoral (but) causes suffering for the working families (because) the poor are getting poorer.”

But that’s just wrong. The poor are not getting poorer. The wealth gap doesn’t cause suffering. Yes, rich people got richer, but the poor and middle class got richer, too. Sanders never acknowledges that.

Sanders posts a new economically ignorant video most every day.

He says it would be “easy” to have free health care, free college, a living wage. How will it all be paid for? Simple. Raise taxes.

One Sanders video shows rich people shouting, “Tax me!” and “I should be paying more!”

So pay more! No one’s stopping you! Just don’t demand that everyone else pay more.

Socialists think government is the solution to every problem. They also pretend that what government provides is free.

Sanders’ videos would be just a joke if millions didn’t watch.

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