Is The FTC Planning To Break Up Big Tech? 

President Trump has made no secret of the fact that he believes tech behemoths like Amazon are anti-competitive, job-killing monstrosities that should be broken up or at least see their influence curbed by regulators. And now, after stocking the FTC with critics of big tech, it appears the committee might be taking the first steps toward breaking up the big tech firms – or at least ensuring that they can’t get any bigger.

FTC

With the committee still prepping what will reportedly be a “record breaking fine” over Facebook’s failure to uphold a guarantee to safeguard user data, Bureau of Competition Director Bruce Hoffman and FTC Chairman Joe Simons announced the formation of a new task force that will scrutinize mergers in the tech space – and even review consummated deals.

The Federal Trade Commission’s Bureau of Competition announced the creation of a task force dedicated to monitoring competition in U.S. technology markets, investigating any potential anticompetitive conduct in those markets, and taking enforcement actions when warranted.

To create the Technology Task Force, the Bureau of Competition will draw upon existing staff and expertise to enhance the Bureau’s focus on technology-related sectors of the economy, including markets in which online platforms compete. The creation of this task force is modeled on the FTC’s successful Merger Litigation Task Force, launched in 2002 by then-Bureau of Competition Director Joe Simons. The 2002 task force reinvigorated the Commission’s hospital merger review program, and also sharpened the agency’s focus on merger enforcement in retail industries, particularly regarding matters involving food, beverages, and supermarkets.

Given the ever-expanding role of technology in the lives of Americans, the committee said it would make sense to ensure any future tie-ups “ensure consumers benefit from free and fair competition.”

“The role of technology in the economy and in our lives grows more important every day,” said FTC Chairman Joe Simons. “As I’ve noted in the past, it makes sense for us to closely examine technology markets to ensure consumers benefit from free and fair competition. Our ongoing Hearings on Competition and Consumer Protection in the 21st Century are a crucial step to deepen our understanding of these markets and potential competitive issues. The Technology Task Force is the next step in that effort.”

But – and this is key – the commission won’t focus solely on proposed deals. Completed mergers might also come under the microscope, something that brings to mind the commission’s investigation into Facebook’s 2012 purchase of Instagram. Indeed, Amazon, Facebook and Google parent Alphabet are responsible for much of the M&A activity in Silicon Valley. 

“Technology markets, which are rapidly evolving and touch so many other sectors of the economy, raise distinct challenges for antitrust enforcement,” said Bureau Director Bruce Hoffman. “By centralizing our expertise and attention, the new task force will be able to focus on these markets exclusively – ensuring they are operating pursuant to the antitrust laws, and taking action where they are not.”

In addition to examining industry practices and conducting law enforcement investigations, the Technology Task Force will, among other things, coordinate and consult with staff throughout the FTC on technology-related matters, including prospective merger reviews in the technology sector and reviews of consummated technology mergers.

The task force will consist of 17 lawyers who will work to “identify and investigate potential anticompetitive conduct”. If nothing else, the formation of the task force has certainly put big tech on notice.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2GMoVoz Tyler Durden

Nomi Prins: Survival Of The Richest

Authored by Nomi Prins via TomDispatch.com,

All are equal, except those who aren’t…

Like a gilded coating that makes the dullest things glitter, today’s thin veneer of political populism covers a grotesque underbelly of growing inequality that’s hiding in plain sight. And this phenomenon of ever more concentrated wealth and power has both Newtonian and Darwinian components to it.

In terms of Newton’s first law of motion: those in power will remain in power unless acted upon by an external force. Those who are wealthy will only gain in wealth as long as nothing deflects them from their present course. As for Darwin, in the world of financial evolution, those with wealth or power will do what’s in their best interest to protect that wealth, even if it’s in no one else’s interest at all.

In George Orwell’s iconic 1945 novel, Animal Farm, the pigs who gain control in a rebellion against a human farmer eventually impose a dictatorship on the other animals on the basis of a single commandment:

“All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others.”

In terms of the American republic, the modern equivalent would be:

“All citizens are equal, but the wealthy are so much more equal than anyone else (and plan to remain that way).”

Certainly, inequality is the economic great wall between those with power and those without it.

As the animals of Orwell’s farm grew ever less equal, so in the present moment in a country that still claims equal opportunity for its citizens, one in which three Americans now have as much wealth as the bottom half of society (160 million people), you could certainly say that we live in an increasingly Orwellian society. Or perhaps an increasingly Twainian one.

After all, Mark Twain and Charles Dudley Warner wrote a classic 1873 novel that put an unforgettable label on their moment and could do the same for ours. The Gilded Age: A Tale of Today depicted the greed and political corruption of post-Civil War America. Its title caught the spirit of what proved to be a long moment when the uber-rich came to dominate Washington and the rest of America. It was a period saturated with robber barons, professional grifters, and incomprehensibly wealthy banking magnates. (Anything sound familiar?) The main difference between that last century’s gilded moment and this one was that those robber barons built tangible things like railroads. Today’s equivalent crew of the mega-wealthy build remarkably intangible things like tech and electronic platforms, while a grifter of a president opts for the only new infrastructure in sight, a great wall to nowhere.

In Twain’s epoch, the U.S. was emerging from the Civil War. Opportunists were rising from the ashes of the nation’s battered soul. Land speculation, government lobbying, and shady deals soon converged to create an unequal society of the first order (at least until now). Soon after their novel came out, a series of recessions ravaged the country, followed by a 1907 financial panic in New York City caused by a speculator-led copper-market scam.

From the late 1890s on, the most powerful banker on the planet, J.P. Morgan, was called upon multiple times to bail out a country on the economic edge. In 1907, Treasury Secretary George Cortelyou provided him with $25 million in bailout money at the request of President Theodore Roosevelt to stabilize Wall Street and calm frantic citizens trying to withdraw their deposits from banks around the country. And this Morgan did — by helping his friends and their companies, while skimming money off the top himself. As for the most troubled banks holding the savings of ordinary people? Well, they folded. (Shades of the 2007-2008 meltdown and bailout anyone?)

The leading bankers who had received that bounty from the government went on to cause the Crash of 1929. Not surprisingly, much speculation and fraud preceded it. In those years, the novelist F. Scott Fitzgerald caught the era’s spirit of grotesque inequality in The Great Gatsby when one of his characters comments: “Let me tell you about the very rich. They are different from you and me.” The same could certainly be said of today when it comes to the gaping maw between the have-nots and have-a-lots.

Income vs. Wealth

To fully grasp the nature of inequality in our twenty-first-century gilded age, it’s important to understand the difference between wealth and income and what kinds of inequality stem from each. Simply put, income is how much money you make in terms of paid work or any return on investments or assets (or other things you own that have the potential to change in value). Wealth is simply the gross accumulation of those very assets and any return or appreciation on them. The more wealth you have, the easier it is to have a higher annual income.

Let’s break that down. If you earn $31,000 a year, the median salary for an individual in the United States today, your income would be that amount minus associated taxes (including federal, state, social security, and Medicare ones). On average, that means you would be left with about $26,000 before other expenses kicked in.

If your wealth is $1,000,000, however, and you put that into a savings account paying 2.25% interest, you could receive about $22,500 and, after taxes, be left with about $19,000, for doing nothing whatsoever.

To put all this in perspective, the top 1% of Americans now take home, on average, more than 40 times the incomes of the bottom 90%. And if you head for the top 0.1%, those figures only radically worsen. That tiny crew takes home more than 198 times the income of the bottom 90% percent. They also possess as much wealth as the nation’s bottom 90%. “Wealth,” as Adam Smith so classically noted almost two-and-a-half-centuries ago in The Wealth of Nations, “is power,” an adage that seldom, sadly, seems outdated.

A Case Study: Wealth, Inequality, and the Federal Reserve

Obviously, if you inherit wealth in this country, you’re instantly ahead of the game. In America, a third to nearly a half of all wealth is inherited rather than self-made. According to a New York Times investigation, for instance, President Donald Trump, from birth, received an estimated $413 million (in today’s dollars, that is) from his dear old dad and another $140 million (in today’s dollars) in loans. Not a bad way for a “businessman” to begin building the empire (of bankruptcies) that became the platform for a presidential campaign that oozed into actually running the country. Trump did it, in other words, the old-fashioned way — through inheritance.

In his megalomaniacal zeal to declare a national emergency at the southern border, that gilded millionaire-turned-billionaire-turned-president provides but one of many examples of a long record of abusing power. Unfortunately, in this country, few people consider record inequality (which is still growing) as another kind of abuse of power, another kind of great wall, in this case keeping not Central Americans but most U.S. citizens out.

The Federal Reserve, the country’s central bank that dictates the cost of money and that sustained Wall Street in the wake of the financial crisis of 2007-2008 (and since), has finally pointed out that such extreme levels of inequality are bad news for the rest of the country. As Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at a town hall in Washington in early February, “We want prosperity to be widely shared. We need policies to make that happen.” Sadly, the Fed has largely contributed to increasing the systemic inequality now engrained in the financial and, by extension, political system. In a recent research paper, the Fed did, at least, underscore the consequences of inequality to the economy, showing that “income inequality can generate low aggregate demand, deflation pressure, excessive credit growth, and financial instability.”

In the wake of the global economic meltdown, however, the Fed took it upon itself to reduce the cost of money for big banks by chopping interest rates to zero (before eventually raising them to 2.5%) and buying $4.5 trillion in Treasury and mortgage bonds to lower it further. All this so that banks could ostensibly lend money more easily to Main Street and stimulate the economy. As Senator Bernie Sanders noted though, “The Federal Reserve provided more than $16 trillion in total financial assistance to some of the largest financial institutions and corporations in the United States and throughout the world… a clear case of socialism for the rich and rugged, you’re-on-your-own individualism for everyone else.”

The economy has been treading water ever since (especially compared to the stock market). Annual gross domestic product growth has not surpassed 3%in any year since the financial crisis, even as the level of the stock market tripled, grotesquely increasing the country’s inequality gap. None of this should have been surprising, since much of the excess money went straight to big banks, rich investors, and speculators.  They then used it to invest in the stock and bond markets, but not in things that would matter to all the Americans outside that great wall of wealth.

The question is: Why are inequality and a flawed economic system mutually reinforcing? As a starting point, those able to invest in a stock market buoyed by the Fed’s policies only increased their wealth exponentially. In contrast, those relying on the economy to sustain them via wages and other income got shafted. Most people aren’t, of course, invested in the stock market, or really in anything. They can’t afford to be. It’s important to remember that nearly 80% of the population lives paycheck to paycheck.

The net result: an acute post-financial-crisis increase in wealth inequality — on top of the income inequality that was global but especially true in the United States. The crew in the top 1% that doesn’t rely on salaries to increase their wealth prospered fabulously. They, after all, now own more than half of all national wealth invested in stocks and mutual funds, so a soaring stock market disproportionately helps them. It’s also why the Federal Reserve subsidy policies to Wall Street banks have only added to the extreme wealth of those extreme few.  

The Ramifications of Inequality

The list of negatives resulting from such inequality is long indeed. As a start, the only thing the majority of Americans possess a greater proportion of than that top 1% is a mountain of debt. 

The bottom 90% are the lucky owners of about three-quarters of the country’s household debt. Mortgages, auto loans, student loans, and credit-card debt are cumulatively at a record-high $13.5 trillion.

And that’s just to start down a slippery slope. As Inequality.org reports, wealth and income inequality impact “everything from life expectancy to infant mortality and obesity.” High economic inequality and poor health, for instance, go hand and hand, or put another way, inequality compromises the overall health of the country. According to academic findings, income inequality is, in the most literal sense, making Americans sick. As one study put it, “Diseased and impoverished economic infrastructures [help] lead to diseased or impoverished or unbalanced bodies or minds.”

Then there’s Social Security, established in 1935 as a federal supplement for those in need who have also paid into the system through a tax on their wages. Today, all workers contribute 6.2% of their annual earnings and employers pay the other 6.2% (up to a cap of $132,900) into the Social Security system. Those making far more than that, specifically millionaires and billionaires, don’t have to pay a dime more on a proportional basis. In practice, that means about 94% of American workers and their employers paid the full 12.4% of their annual earnings toward Social Security, while the other 6% paid an often significantly smaller fraction of their earnings.

According to his own claims about his 2016 income, for instance, President Trump “contributed a mere 0.002 percent of his income to Social Security in 2016.” That means it would take nearly 22,000 additional workers earning the median U.S. salary to make up for what he doesn’t have to pay. And the greater the income inequality in this country, the more money those who make less have to put into the Social Security system on a proportional basis. In recent years, a staggering $1.4 trillion could have gone into that system, if there were no arbitrary payroll cap favoring the wealthy.

Inequality: A Dilemma With Global Implications

America is great at minting millionaires. It has the highest concentration of them, globally speaking, at 41%. (Another 24% of that millionaires’ club can be found in Europe.) And the top 1% of U.S. citizens earn 40 times the national average and own about 38.6% of the country’s total wealth. The highest figure in any other developed country is “only” 28%.

However, while the U.S. boasts of epic levels of inequality, it’s also a global trend. Consider this: the world’s richest 1% own 45% of total wealth on this planet. In contrast, 64% of the population (with an average of $10,000 in wealth to their name) holds less than 2%. And to widen the inequality picture a bit more, the world’s richest 10%, those having at least $100,000 in assets, own 84% of total global wealth.

The billionaires’ club is where it’s really at, though. According to Oxfam, the richest 42 billionaires have a combined wealth equal to that of the poorest 50% of humanity. Rest assured, however, that in this gilded century there’s inequality even among billionaires. After all, the 10 richest among them possess $745 billion in total global wealth. The next 10 down the list possess a mere $451.5 billion, and why even bother tallying the next 10 when you get the picture?

Oxfam also recently reported that “the number of billionaires has almost doubled, with a new billionaire created every two days between 2017 and 2018. They have now more wealth than ever before while almost half of humanity have barely escaped extreme poverty, living on less than $5.50 a day.” 

How Does It End?

In sum, the rich are only getting richer and it’s happening at a historic rate. Worse yet, over the past decade, there was an extra perk for the truly wealthy. They could bulk up on assets that had been devalued due to the financial crisis, while so many of their peers on the other side of that great wall of wealth were economically decimated by the 2007-2008 meltdown and have yet to fully recover.

What we’ve seen ever since is how money just keeps flowing upward through banks and massive speculation, while the economic lives of those not at the top of the financial food chain have largely remained stagnant or worse. The result is, of course, sweeping inequality of a kind that, in much of the last century, might have seemed inconceivable.

Eventually, we will all have to face the black cloud this throws over the entire economy. Real people in the real world, those not at the top, have experienced a decade of ever greater instability, while the inequality gap of this beyond-gilded age is sure to shape a truly messy world ahead. In other words, this can’t end well.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2T0DEmg Tyler Durden

Trust In Media Hits Rock Bottom: 60% Of Americans Think Journalists Pay Their Sources

While this might not come as a surprise to readers of our humble website, a survey conducted by the Columbia Journalism Review recently confirmed that trust in the American media has hit a new low.

According to the survey of 4,214 American adults, which was carried out by Reuters/Ipsos, the media ranked dead last in a list of most trustworthy Washington institutions, behind Congress, the military and – get this – the executive branch.

Survey

Of course, the idea that Americans don’t trust the press has been well established for a long time. What the survey purported to show is exactly what it is about the process of journalism – from the use of anonymous sources to the role that money plays in the relationship between source and journalist – that Americans find so deeply unsettling.

For example, 60% of respondents said they believed journalists paid their sources.

Journos

The survey also confirmed the death of print media by showing that most Americans get their news from television, the Internet and social media.

Graphic

And perhaps most tellingly, of all the demographic groups broken down in the survey, only Democrats said they had “a great deal of confidence” in the press.

Graphic

The report – particularly the findings about journalists paying their sources – was met with shock and incredulity by members of the Washington media establishment, who simply couldn’t believe that any American would be so ill-informed as to suspect that any self-respecting journalist would ever offer to pay their sources (can you even imagine?).

Though instead of questioning the intelligence of the readers who have been turned off by their hyper-partisan coverage – as always, carried out under the auspices of “objective reporting” – maybe they would be better served by examining what they might do to shift these perceptions.

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Colorado Moves To Bypass Electoral College To Stop Trump: Will Assign Electoral Votes To Popular Vote Winner

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

Certain political elements within the United States simply can’t deal with the fact that our Founders created a voting system that ensured limitations on mob rule stemming from a handful of cities throughout the country. To protect the rights of all Americans, including those living in smaller rural counties, they came up with the electoral college, a method by which all Americans from varying backgrounds and ideologies can be represented during a Presidential election.

In 2016, Hillary Clinton officially won the Popular Vote, garnering more total votes than Donald Trump, but because of an Electoral College victory, Trump ultimately became President.

Every time a Republican happens to win a Presidency, Democrats argue that the Electoral College is an archaic election method not representative of a democratic government.

Up until now there was nothing they can do about it, but Colorado has come up with a plan that, at the very least, will likely wind up in front of the U.S. Supreme Court.

In the next election, Colorado aims to assign all electoral votes to the winner of the national Popular Vote, rather than then to the individual who brings in the most votes in their State, essentially invalidating the will of their own State citizens. Somehow, this makes sense to Colorado governor Jared Polis:

“I’ve long supported electing the president by who gets the most votes,” Polis told The Hill. “It’s a way to move towards direct election of the president.”

Colorado will become the 12th state to join the national popular vote interstate compact. Those 12 states and the District of Columbia, which has also passed a popular-vote bill, account for 181 electoral votes, just under 90 shy of the 270 votes a presidential candidate needs to win the White House.

The compact will not go into effect until the coalition includes states that add up to 270 electoral votes or more. Once it does go into effect, states that are part of the coalition would award their electoral votes en masse to the candidate who wins the national popular vote.

Source: The Hill

Eleven more states are currently working through similar legislation. If successful, some 261 electoral college votes would end up being decided by the national popular vote rather than the traditional electoral voting system used in previous elections.

While the U.S. Constitution establishes the Electoral College as the method by which a President is elected, it does not specify how each state chooses to assign its Electoral votes.

This will likely lead to Constitutional challenges from both sides.

Our view: This is how a Republic dies, should the Supreme Court fail to uphold current laws surrounding how votes are assigned and calculated.

(Pictured: 2016 Electoral map by county)

The electoral map above shows exactly why Democrats, once again, have to move the goal posts to win.

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US Tax Refunds Plummet 17% Under New Plan

The average tax refund in the United States is down 17% so far in the first filing season under President Trump’s tax plan, reports Bloomberg, citing IRS data. 

As a result, the Treasury Department is cautioning that the data could be misleading. 

Direct-deposit refunds dropped for the third week in a row this filing season to $2,703, from $3,256 a year earlier, for the seven days through Feb. 15, the IRS reported late Friday. The total number of refunds was down 26.5 percent to 23.5 million, it said. –Bloomberg

The Treasury Department said in a late Friday statement that they have received massive public interest in taxpayer data from the current tax filing season, and that while refunds are down, individuals’ overall tax liability has also fallen – resulting in larger paychecks. 

“The size of someone’s tax refund says nothing about whether their taxes have gone up or down,” reads the statement. “Data this early in the filing season has many aberrations and isn’t useful in drawing broad conclusions on refunds overall.

Refunds have gotten smaller due to fewer available deductions and credits, along with revised withholding tables. The IRS has also waived some penalties for those whose did not have enough withheld over the year. 

Uncertainty about refunds and smaller checks could weaken consumer spending as taxpayers grow more cautious. U.S. retail sales unexpectedly fell in December, marking the worst drop in nine years, according to Commerce Department data.

The Treasury has defended the drop in tax-refund checks, which some are interpreting as a higher tax liability, rather than income distributed over 12 months. The agency released the data on Friday night instead of during the day. –Bloomberg

As the 2020 election season starts to heat up, Democrats have rallied around taxing the wealthy as a central theme. 

Republicans, meanwhile, have echoed comments by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin regarding the new taxes – with Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) and Rep. Kevin Brady (R-TX) – who led the tax legislation, saying last week that “the size of your tax refund has nothing to do with your overall tax bill. It merely reflects what you overpaid the IRS in your paychecks last year.

According to the Government Accountability Office, 21% of taxpayers would owe money at the time of filing under the new law, up from 18% under the previous law, due to the way withholding is calculated. 

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2T3dq2v Tyler Durden

If Every Debate About US Interventionism Was About Godzilla Instead

Authored by Cailtin Johnstone via Medium.com,

Person A: Wow, things are looking really bad in Venezuela right now.

Person B: Yeah.

Person A: All that poverty and unrest!

Person B: I know, it’s terrible.

Person A: You know what we should do?

Person B: Please don’t say send in Godzilla.

Person A: What? Why not??

Person B: Because he always makes things worse! You know that! Every time we send in Godzilla to try and solve problems in the world, he just ends up trampling all over the city, knocking down buildings and killing thousands of people with his atomic heat beam.

Person A: Maybe this time would be different though!

Person B: Why in God’s name would this time be different?? You said it would be different in Iraq, in Libya, in Syria. What happened there?

Person A: He trampled all over the cities, knocked down the buildings and killed people with his atomic heat beam.

Person B: Exactly! So what makes you think sending in Godzilla would be any different this time?

Person A: Well we can’t just do nothing!

Person B: Dude, doing nothing would be infinitely better than sending in Godzilla to do the thing he literally always does.

Person A: Hey, inaction has consequences too you know! You probably don’t even talk to Venezuelans. My brother’s co-worker’s dentist is Venezuelan, and he says a Godzilla rampage is just what they need. You should listen to Venezuelans.

Person B: No matter how many Venezuelans I talk to, it will still be an indisputable fact that Godzilla rampages are always disastrous and always make things worse.

Person A: Why are you such a Maduro apologist?

Person B: What?!? I’m not a Maduro apologist! This has nothing to do with Maduro. I just remember what Godzilla is and the things he always does when we summon him up from the bottom of the sea to try and solve problems.

Person A: Look, I understand that Godzilla has made a mess of things in the past, that doesn’t mean you have to go around supporting Maduro.

Person B: I don’t support Maduro! Why do you always do this?? With Iraq you called me a Saddam apologist, with Libya you called me a Gaddafi supporter, with Syria I was an Assadist, and all I’m saying is that Godzilla is a giant nuclear monster that destroys everything in its path!

Person A: So I guess you just don’t care about the people of Venezuela then.

Person B: Of course I care about the people of Venezuela! That’s why I don’t want them to be trampled to death beneath the feet of a destructive nuclear behemoth!

Person A: Yeah but Venezuela is in dire straits right now. It’s not like sending in Godzilla could make things any worse.

Person B: Sending in Godzilla can definitely make things worse! Are you kidding me?? Have you seen Libya lately?

Person A: Oh, right, everything was so perfect in Libya before we sent in Godzilla to kill Gaddafi, I forgot. It was a perfect utopian paradise!

Person B: Nobody’s saying Libya was perfect under Gaddafi, but it was a hell of a lot better before Godzilla went on a chaotic rampage trampling and burning everything in sight. Now it’s a lawless humanitarian disaster!

Person A: You’re just a Godzilla-hating, Maduro-loving socialist.

Person B: This isn’t about socialism. It’s an established fact that sending in Godzilla literally always makes things worse and literally never makes things better. The only reason you keep shifting between straw man arguments and ad hominem attacks is because you know you’ve got no case. All you can do is keep calling me a Maduro supporter, saying I don’t care about the Venezuelan people, and saying it’s because I love socialism, when you know damn well I’m telling it like it is. Honestly, what do you think happens when we send in Godzilla again? Do you think he’s just going to be a cuddly wuddly nice guy all of a sudden and start solving problems with surgical precision?

Person A: Uhh… maybe?

Person B: He won’t! He never will! You keep hoping it will be different and it never, ever is! How do you keep making this same stupid mistake over and over again??

Person A: Well the TV told me this time it’s different.

Person B: They tell you that every time! It’s a narrative advanced by Godzilla rampage profiteers!

Person A: Hey, maybe it won’t even come to that. Maybe Mothra can sort of gently blow Maduro out?

Person B: Mothra hurts civilians too!

Person A: Nuh-uh. Her wind gusts are laser-targeted to solely affect Maduro and Venezuelan oligarchs.

Person B: That’s not even true! Anyway what happens when Mothra starts killing civilians?

Person A: Nothing a bit of Godzilla couldn’t fix.

Person B: Of course. Awesome. Excuse me, I need to go slam my head in the car door.

*  *  *

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Russian Nuclear ICBM Stuck In Moscow Traffic Jam

A Russian RS-24 Yars mobile intercontinnental ballistic missile battery was stuck in traffick at the Moscow Ring Road, according to defence-blog.com

According to a Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation report, a mechanized column of the missile formation is moving from Teikovo (Ivanovo region) to Alabino (Moscow region) to take part in a rehearsal of the Victory Day parade in Moscow. The crews have passed more than 400 kilometers along federal highways and roads with high traffic intensity, including the federal highway M7 and the Moscow Automobile Ring Road. –defence-blog.com

“The Moscow Ring Road was decided to shut off at rush hour in order to bring rockets,” reports the Moscow News Telegram Channel “338”. 

According to Defense Blog, the RS-24 Yars is a solid-propellant ICBM with MIRVed (multiple independently targetable vehicle) warheads, and can maneuver mid-flight to avoid enemy defense systems. 

It cannot, however evade Moscow traffic. 

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Who’s Afraid Of Budget Deficits? I Am.

Authored by David Henderson via The Hoover Institution,

In a provocative article in Foreign Affairs titled “Who’s Afraid of Budget Deficits?” Jason Furman and Lawrence H. Summers argue that we should not worry much about the federal government’s large and growing budget deficits.  While they admit that politicians and policymakers “shouldn’t ignore fiscal constraints entirely,” they say that they “should focus on urgent social problems, not deficits.” And throughout the piece, they assume, for every single problem they address, that the solution is more spending. It’s not surprising that they don’t worry much about deficits.

Furman and Summers aren’t just rank and file economists. Furman, an economics professor at Harvard University’s Kennedy School, was the chairman of former President Barack Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers. Summers, who is president emeritus of Harvard, was the Treasury Secretary under former President Clinton and head of the National Economic Council under former President Obama. I know Summers from when we were both economists with President Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers and I know Furman from his work. These are not, to put it mildly, dumb guys. And if you dismiss them as such, you make a big mistake. It’s important to look at their argument.

I’ve studied their argument, and I find it unpersuasive in two respects:

(1) their main case, which is that we shouldn’t worry much about deficits and

(2) their subsidiary point, which is that we need at least the amount of government spending we have now and should be ready and willing to increase government spending.

Why do Furman and Summers think we shouldn’t worry about the federal government deficit? Their main reason is that the interest rate the federal government pays on the debt is so low. They point out that the current real interest rate on ten-year government bonds is 0.8 percent. (The real interest rate is the stated interest rate earned on bonds minus the inflation rate.) As a result, even though the federal debt is a much larger percent of GDP than it was in recent decades, the federal government “pays around the same proportion of GDP in interest on its debt, adjusted for inflation, as it has on average since World War II.”  

That’s true. But what about the future? The good news on federal interest payments as a percent of GDP not rising depends on real interest rates not rising much. Real interest rates are unusually low right now, as they point out. They argue, and I agree, that these low rates are not a result of Federal Reserve policy. The Fed can affect mainly short-term interest rates. Instead, they write, lower interest rates are “rooted in a set of deeper forces, including lower investment demand, higher savings rates, and widening inequality.”

Furman and Summers don’t explain why widening inequality would make interest rates low, but it’s clear why lower investment demand and higher savings rates would do so. Because capital markets are now global, interest rates are determined in a global market. So the investment and savings rate that matter for real interest rates are for the world, not the United States. On these two factors, they are right, as  Jeffrey Hummel and I pointed out in 2008.

But the fact that interest rates have been low for a long time is not strong enough evidence to conclude that they will remain low.

For two economists who have spent their careers looking at numbers, Furman and Summers are maddeningly vague about the numbers. So let’s fill in the blanks, using numbers from the federal government’s Congressional Budget Office.

In its January 2019 report on the budget and the economy for 2019 to 2029, the CBO projects small increases in the real interest rate on ten-year Treasury bills. The CBO also projects that the federal budget deficit will exceed $1 trillion every year from 2022 to 2029. Moreover, the CBO reaches that conclusion by assuming that the individual income tax cuts will expire in 2025, as is required in the 2017 tax law. If the tax cuts are extended, the deficits will be even higher.

With those projected deficits and interest rates, the CBO concludes, by 2029, net interest on the debt as a percentage of GDP will almost double to 3%, up from 1.6% in 2018. 

And remember that the CBO is assuming only modest increases in interest rates. What if the world’s savings rate falls or investment demand rises? Then real interest rates will rise and net interest on the debt will exceed 3% of GDP.

There is one other way that we can be bailed out of these dismal budget numbers. That is if GDP grows faster than the CBO predicts. The CBO’s estimates assume that real GDP will grow by an annual average of only 1.7% between 2020 and 2029. If GDP grows at an average of 3.2% annually, as it did in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s, then the numbers look much better. Furman and Summers don’t mention that, presumably because they are pessimistic about growth.

But let’s say that you think that government spending on interest payments will increase substantially. What follows is that we should do something now to reduce future deficits. We could do so either by raising taxes or by reducing the growth of government spending.

Consider tax increases. If you, like me, believe in limiting the size of government, then the option of higher taxes is a non-starter. But even if you don’t share my philosophy, there’s a strong case against tax increases. As I noted in “The Case Against Higher Tax Rates,” every tax causes what economists call “deadweight loss,” a loss to some that is not a gain to anyone, even the government. The relationship between tax rates and deadweight loss is not linear. The higher the current tax rate, the higher is the deadweight loss from a given increase in the tax rate. That means that for a government spending project to be efficient, the benefits of the project must exceed not just the amount spent but the amount spent plus the deadweight loss. If the deadweight loss is 30 percent of the amount raised in taxes, then efficiency requires that a dollar spent on a government project produce benefits, not of $1 but of $1.30.

That brings us to the second way of cutting the deficit – by cutting government spending. Furman and Summers list a number of programs that they think are valuable and should be expanded. They list not a single program that should be cut. That’s somewhat shocking given that their somewhat-left counterparts of the previous generation of economists, such as the late James Tobin of Yale University, could always be counted on to criticize farm subsidies.

Moreover, they give as an example of something that should not be cut a program that is worth much less to its stated beneficiaries than the amount that the federal and state governments spend on the program. That program is Medicaid, the socialized health insurance benefit for low-income American residents.

Economic theory tells us that when the government gives someone a dollar, he values it at a dollar. But when the government gives someone a benefit other than cash, he typically values that benefit at an amount less than the cost of the benefit. Sure enough, in a June 2015 study published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, titled “The Value of Medicaid: Interpreting Results from the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment,” health economists Amy Finkelstein of MIT, Nathaniel Hendren of Harvard, and Erzo F.P. Luttmer of Dartmouth found that beneficiaries of Medicaid value a dollar of spending at only 20 to 40 cents.

The study’s authors did find that the providers benefit by about 60 cents on the dollar. So the program is not quite as inefficient as you might think. But presumably Furman, Summers, and other supporters of Medicaid would not want to justify Medicaid spending on the grounds that most of the benefits go to doctors and hospitals. So Medicaid is a program for which the government could cut spending by 60 percent and just give cash to the current beneficiaries, leaving them at least as well off as they were under Medicaid.

The federal budget for 2019 is about $4.4 trillion. It would not be hard to find $2 trillion of spending programs in the current budget that are scheduled to grow at an annual rate of 4% or more over the next 10 years but instead could be scheduled to grow at 2% annually. Budget savings do not add up; they compound up. With this hypothetical $2 trillion in programs, cutting the growth rate from 4% to 2% would result, 10 years from now, in spending on these programs of $2.44 trillion, down from the $2.96 trillion that would result from the 4% annual growth. That’s a reduction of over $500 billion. Moreover the debt in 2029 would be lower by a few trillion dollars because of all the savings between 2019 and 2028.

We should worry about the deficit. But not all means of reducing the deficit are equal. Specifically, cutting spending is preferable to increasing taxes. Interestingly, while Furman and Summers, both long-time Democrats, seem to want to build a firewall around current government programs and the projected growth in those programs, even they worry about some of the leading Democratic proposals for spending. They write, “Progressives have proposed Medicare for all, free college, a federal jobs guarantee, and a massive green infrastructure program.” The closest they get to criticizing such ideas is their very next sentence: “The merits of each of these proposals are up for debate.”

Yet with progressives advocating such huge spending programs and Furman and Summers hesitating to criticize them head on, there’s an even stronger case for not raising taxes: the added tax revenue would be swooped up quickly if the progressives get their way on even a few of these programs and we would back to the same, and possibly even higher, deficits than the CBO projects. So we would have higher taxes, higher government spending, and high or even higher deficits. That would be a shame.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2GM2ZtV Tyler Durden

China Joins Russia In Opposing Military Intervention In Venezuela

Here’s something that could complicate President Trump’s quest for a sweeping trade deal with China.

After a violent weekend that left several Venezuelans dead and dozens injured as pro-Maduro militias joined forces with the military to try and repel aid convoys (amid the chaos, Venezuelan officials accused the US of staging a false flag attack on an aid convey), China has finally come out to oppose foreign military intervention in Venezuela, taking its most concrete step yet to back the Maduro regime as senior officials warn that a military intervention may be in the table.

Chinese media organization Xinhua reported Tuesday that a representative of the government in Beijing voice the government’s opposition to a military conflict in Venezuela (after Guaido had reportedly sought to try and convince Beijing to abandon Maduro and support his claim as the legitimate ruler of Venezuela).

Maduro

The envoy declared China’s opposition to foreign interference in Latin America’s favorite crumbling socialist republic – which China not only views as an international ally but has also invested billions of dollars in money-for-oil deals – during a meeting of the UN Security Council called by the US.

Here’s more from Xinhua:

“China maintains that all countries should abide by the basic principles of international law and international relations, opposes foreign interference in the internal affairs of Venezuela, and opposes military intervention in Venezuela,” Ma Zhaoxu, China’s permanent representative to the UN, said at a Security Council meeting on the situation in Venezuela.

The envoy also said China opposes US attempts to offer “humanitarian assistance” to the people of Venezuela, echoing a line used by the Maduro regime that the aid is merely a ploy to try and sow instability in the country.

“China opposes using the issue of so-called humanitarian assistance for political purposes to create disability or even turbulence inside Venezuela and in the neighboring region,” he added.

“This serves no party’s interest,” the ambassador noted.

China and Russia are now the two biggest powers backing the Maduro regime, which has lost the support of much of Latin America and Europe. Moscow has reportedly even gone as far as ordering hundreds of Russian mercenaries to Caracas to protect Maduro. Russia’s state-owned energy giant Gazprom has invested billions in Venezuela’s struggling state-run oil company, PDVSA.

Beijing’s latest declaration of support comes as Vice President Mike Pence urged the US’s international partners during a speech in Colombia to freeze all Venezuelan assets, refuse to buy its oil, and ensure that “every last dollar” held or earned by the government abroad is returned to Guaido.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2Ezk6N2 Tyler Durden

Rotten Tomatoes Censors “Non-Constructive Input” After Girl-Power Superhero Movie Panned By “Trolls”

The popular movie review website Rotten Tomatoes has decided to help Hollywood’s sagging box-office numbers by banning user comments before films premiere in theatres. The site has also tweaked the polling system it uses to gauge interest in upcoming releases. The move comes in response to users bashing the latest girl-power superhero movie, Captain Marvel, which has been widely panned prior to its March 8th release. 

Captain Marvel star Brie Larson came under fire after telling Marie Claire that she would like to see fewer white male critics reviewing her films. Following Larson’s comments, box office projections for Captain Marvel dropped approximately 28%while the Rotten Tomatoes comments section blew up – resulting in the new site-wide changes.

Those who think a movie will suck, or have a problem with something controversial said by a star have now been labeled “trolls” engaging in “review bombing” campaigns – and must therefore be silenced, according to Rotten Tomatoes. 

The battle against “review bombing” is part of the company’s push to make audience feedback more “useful,” said Paul Yanover, the president of Fandango, the ticketing service that owns Rotten Tomatoes. (Fandango is a unit of NBCUniversal, the parent company of NBC News.)

We decided the easiest thing to do, and the most intelligent thing to do, was simply removing the comments, because you can’t comment on the film if you haven’t seen the film,” Yanover said. –NBC News

Accidentally proving the “trolls” right, NBC News notes: 

In recent years, a crush of users tried to sink audience scores for Marvel’s “Black Panther,” “Star Wars: The Last Jedi” and the female-led “Ghostbusters” reboot, deluging the site with comments that were sometimes racist or sexist.

All of which received terrible user reviews on metacritic – especially the Last Jedi and the all-female Ghostbusters reboot

The movie was so awful that co-star Leslie Jones took to Twitter to criticize alleged racist and sexist messages she had received, which earned right-wing provocateur Milo Yiannopoulos a permanent Twitter ban after he said Jones was playing the victim. Jones, meanwhile, went unpunished for a slew of racist tweets prior to the incident with Yiannopoulos. She voluntarily left twitter shortly after the spat with Milo. 

In short – if a large group of people think a movie will probably suck for any number of reasons, including backlash against activist actors, Rotten Tomatoes will no longer let you know about it. You’ll simply have to risk wasting $15 and two hours of your life, or wait until enough reviews roll in to make a decision.

There’s a lot of money involved, after all. 

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2NvRqrd Tyler Durden