Why Are An Increasing Number Of High-Income Americans Choosing To Rent?

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

The percentage of high-income households choosing to rent is on the rise. High-income is defined as $150,000 and up.

The Rent Cafe reports High-Income Americans Are the Fastest Growing Renter Segment — Up by 1.35 Million in a Decade.

The most recent U.S. Census data tells us that the annual increase in the number of high-income renter-occupied households – defined here as those earning $150,000 or more – has been consistently faster than owner-occupied households. As a matter of fact, from 2007 to 2017, the numbers of those rich enough to own, yet who still prefer to rent grew by 175%. That’s compared to a decade-long increase of 67% in homeowners within the same income bracket.

Top-Earning Renters Are Growing Faster than Any Other Renter Income Bracket

Of the 43.3 million renters nationwide, 2.1 million are top earners. High-income renters represent the demographic that experienced the largest boom across the U.S. given that, back in 2007, there were only 774,000.

Breakdown

  • Over $150K — ↑175%
  • $100K – $150K — ↑111%
  • $75K – $100K — ↑66%
  • $50K – $75K — ↑32%
  • Under $50K —↓0.2%

High-Income Renter-Occupied vs Homeowner-Occupied Households 2007-2017

Debate Over High-Income Definition

Arguably, $150K may not be enough to qualify as high-income in places like San Francisco or New York City, which is probably why the two cities have the largest numbers of renter-occupied households inside this bracket.

NYC’s upper-bracket renters outpace owners not only in net numbers but also in the rate of increase. Wealthy renter-occupied households in New York doubled in the course of a decade, going from 125,000 in 2007 to the largest number of wealthy renters in the U.S. today — 249,000. As for people earning $150K or more who own a home in the Big Apple, their numbers have increased by a lesser 63% over the course of a decade (189,000 in 2007 to 306,000 ten years later).

Top 10 Cities With High-Income Renters

American Dream

The Rent Cafe concluded. “The attitude toward renting at any income level is changing. With renters becoming the majority population in many U.S. cities, the spike in the national population of wealthy renter households could mean a change in attitude toward an American Dream that no longer belongs to this generation of renters.”

Marriage Rates Down, Cohabitation Up

Not Just Student Debt

The Rent Cafe article ties in nicely with my previous report: Marriage Rates Down, Cohabitating Rates Up: It’s Not Just Student Debt to Blame

Attitudes, Attitudes, Attitudes

A Fed study on Consumers and Communities released last month had an interesting comment on homeownership.

“We estimate that roughly 20 percent of the decline in homeownership among young adults can be attributed to their increased student loan debts since 2005. Our estimates suggest that increases in student loan debt are an important factor in explaining their lowered homeownership rates, but not the central cause of the decline.”

The rest is explained by changing attitudes and affordability.

Attitudes about marriage, having kids, mobility, and debt have all changed.

This is not 1960 or 1971.

To top it off, houses simply are not affordable. That’s what the cohabitation rate shows. Wages have not kept up with home prices even without the burden of student debt.

American Dream

Even when high-income households can afford a house, many choose to rent instead. Why?

  1. Changing attitudes about the “American Dream”.

  2. The Marriage Tax Penalty

  3. The Remarriage Penalty

Reader “Cecilia” thoughtfully added “Liquidity and Walk Away Arbitrage”, which also ties into the remarriage issue.

Remarrying can greatly complicate divorce financial arrangements. It’s easier to live with someone. No one wants a second divorce, especially if the first one was messy.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2TAkAHP Tyler Durden

Banks Got A $21 Billion Tax Windfall… Then Fired Thousands And Rewarded Themselves

Last year major US banks were able to cut their collective tax bill by around $21 billion thanks to the GOP tax overhaul – nearly double the budget for the entire IRS, then fired thousands of employees and tightened lending standards, reports Bloomberg

By year-end, most of the nation’s largest lenders met or exceeded their initial predictions for tax savings. On average, the banks saw their effective tax rates fall below 19 percent from the roughly 28 percent they paid in 2016. And while the breaks set off a gusher of payouts to shareholders, firms cut thousands of jobs and saw their lending growth slow. –Bloomberg

Bloomberg’s analysis is based on the financial results and commentary from 23 of the most important US banks to the nation’s economy, according to the Federal Reserve. The tax windfall was not unexpected, as banks had been paying higher than average effective tax rates vs. non-financial companies. 

The financial industry promised to pass the savings along to employees, small businesses and communities in need of financial help. Instead, the 23 firms boosted dividends and stock buybacks 23% and slashed thousands of jobs with a few signaling that more layoffs are in store. 

Bloomberg breaks down exactly how bank employees and customers fared following the tax windfall. 

Employees were a mixed bag. Of bank employees who kept their jobs, some got bonuses – such as 145,000 Bank of America workers who received $1,000 bonuses last year. Wells Fargo rewarded their poorest employees by boosting minimum wage to $15 an hour. 

That said, Wells Fargo and Bank of America slashed nearly 4,900 and 4,000 jobs last year – only to be outdone by Citigroup’s 5,000 job cuts. While the banks did not provide regional breakdowns, press reports reveal that at least some of the cuts were international. 

More cuts are on the horizon as well. State Street Corp announced in January that it will be laying off 1,500 people thanks to automation, while Citigroup may cut thousands of staff from their technology and operations areas in the coming years. 

As customers are being shifted to mobile platforms and new technologies to handle banking needs, the many banks have announced increased investments in automation. 

Those employees who weren’t fired received an average raise of 3.6% last year among the 23 banks surveyed. Bank of America, for example, boosted its bonuses last year to encompass more employees. That said, “the ratio of personnel costs to revenue declined as banks gave workers a smaller slice of the money they brought in.”

Customers, meanwhile, did not benefit significantly from Banks’ tax windfall – as loan portfolios only increased by 2.3% in 2018 vs. 3.6% a year earlier. 

To be sure, lending is driven by demand from qualifying customers. Rising interest rates discouraged home sales and potentially other activities. Corporate clients also got a tax break, leaving them more money to fund expansion without borrowing.

Commercial and industrial lending — which helps fuel job creation — was stagnant heading into the year before picking up in the final months. That’s a sign that tax reform helped sustain economic growth, said Peter Winter, who covers regional banks for Wedbush Securities Inc. “The credit quality is still very strong for the banks,” he said. –Bloomberg

As we reported on Monday, the latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) by the Federal Reserve, which was conducted for bank lending activity during the fourth quarter of last year, and which reported a double whammy of tightening lending standards and terms for commercial and industrial loans on one hand, and weaker demand for those loans on the other. Even more concerning is that banks also reported weaker demand for both commercial and residential real estate loans, echoing the softer housing data in recent months.

Via Goldman: 

  • 20% of banks surveyed reportedly widened spreads of loan rates over the cost of funds for large- and medium-sized firms, while 16% narrowed spreads. 14% of banks surveyed reported higher premiums charged on riskier loans, while 4% reported lower premiums. Other terms, such as loan covenants and collateralization requirements, remained largely unchanged. Demand for loans reportedly weakened on balance.
  • Relative to the last survey, standards on commercial real estate (CRE) loans tightened on net over the fourth quarter of the year. On net, 17% of banks reported tightening credit standards on loans secured by multifamily residential properties, while 13% of banks on net reported tightening standards for construction and land development loans. As above, banks reported that demand for CRE loans across a broad range of categories moderately weakened on net.
  • Banks reported that lending standards for residential mortgage loans remained largely unchanged on net in 2018Q4 relative to the prior quarter. However, this benign environment was largely as a result of slumping demand for credit, as banks reported weaker demand across all surveyed residential loan categories, including home equity lines of credit.
  • While banks reported that lending standards on consumer installment loans and autos remained largely unchanged, banks reported that lending standards for credit cards had tightened slightly. Here too demand – for all categories of consumer loans – was moderately weaker, while respondent willingness to make consumer installment loans tumbled to the lowest value since the financial crisis.

The biggest winners were shareholders, according to Bloomberg‘s analysis – as the six largest banks surpassed $120 billion in combined profits last year, while dividends and stock buybacks surged by an additional $28 billion over 2017 – an amount greater than their tax savings. 

Many banks won Fed permission in June stress tests to boost future payouts, which means investors haven’t yet received the full benefit. (Most companies disclosed how much they paid out last year, and for those that didn’t, Bloomberg calculated it based on their shares outstanding, their stated dividends, and for two banks, their commentary on buybacks.)

Still, the KBW Bank Index of the nation’s largest lenders tumbled 20 percent last year. The surge in payouts underscored that banks have limited opportunities to keep expanding their businesses profitably. So, they’re pumping out cash. The bank index has rebounded 13 percent this year, helped by the payouts and record results. –Bloomberg

According to Dan Alpert – a Westwood Capital managing partner and senior fellow in financial macroeconomics at Cornell Law School, companies “don’t go and distribute cash to their shareholders in the form of buybacks or dividends if they have good investments to make of a long-term capital nature.” 

After Senators Chuck Schumer and Bernie Sanders blasted the corporate stock buybacks in a NYT Op-Ed this week, Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein defended how banks used cash, tweeting on Tuesday: “A company used to be encouraged to return money to shareholders when it couldn’t reinvest in itself for a good return. The money doesn’t vanish, it gets reinvested in higher growth businesses that boost the economy and jobs. Is that bad?”

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2TAdHGH Tyler Durden

Russian Media Threatens US With 100 Megaton Device After INF Debacle

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

Russian media has threatened the United States with a 100 megaton nuclear weapon after a key arms treaty failed.  The doomsday device was a threat lobbed by Russian state-sponsored media and the Russian military after the U.S. announced that the country will exit the Intermediate Nuclear Forces treaties.

Although treaties don’t mean much (their success hinges only on tyrants’ willingness to follow them and obey the words inked on paper anyway) the U.S. mainstream media seems to be afraid. According to MSN, the treaty was the only thing standing between Russia and another Cold War. It was “one of the last barriers to a full-on Cold War-like arms race in Europe – and there’s already talk of a nuclear doomsday device visiting the U.S.,” wrote MSN. The treaty was useless, however, as Russia disobeyed it.

The INF treaty banned land-based nuclear-capable missiles with a range between 300 and 3,200 miles in 1987 when Russia and the U.S. had populated much of Europe with intermediate-range nuclear missiles. “The ban eliminated this entire class of missiles and went down as one of the most successful acts of arms control ever,” wrote MSN. Except it wasn’t successful in the least because Russian spent years developing a nuclear-capable weapon banned by the treaty, making the treaty absolutely worthless.

The U.S. then responded by saying it would withdraw and design its own treaty-busting missiles. But the World War 3 and doomsday rhetoric jumped up a few notches when Russian media threatened to nuke the U.S. A BBC review of Russian newspapers, some state-owned and all adhering to state narratives or censored by the Kremlin, revealed some truly apocalyptic ideas.

“If the Americans deploy their new missiles near Russia’s borders, and in response we deploy ours, then, of course, the risk of [nuclear] conflict rises sharply,” an arms control expert told one paper.

 “If US missiles are deployed in Poland or the Baltic states, they’ll be able to reach Russia in minutes. In such an event, the way Russia currently conceives using nuclear weapons, as a retaliatory strike, becomes impossible, since there won’t be time to work out which missiles have been launched against Russia, what their trajectory and their targets are,” he continued.

“This is why there is now a temptation for both us and for them to adopt the doctrine of a preemptive strike.”

For those who missed it, a preemptive strike is sending a nuke over without provocation or at just a sign that there might be conflict. The arms expert also declared that with the INF officially dead, the U.S. and Russian will have to consider nuking each other first (preemptive strike) because missile attacks won’t be as predictable as longer-range salvos from the continental U.S. and Russia’s mainland.

Russian media threatened to use a doomsday device that would trigger a devastating tsunami causing widespread death and destruction to coastlines.

“It cannot be excluded that one of the Poseidon with a 100 megaton nuclear warhead will lay low off the U.S. coast, becoming ‘the doomsday weapon.‘ Thus an attack on Russia will become a suicidal misadventure,” the paper states.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2Bnssp4 Tyler Durden

After State of the Union, Republicans Face a Crucial Choice on Trade

For the first two years of President Donald Trump’s tenure, his administration has been the sole driver of federal trade policy. Whether setting tariffs or negotiating trade deals—like the rewrite of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) last year—Trump has been the one doing things and Congress has been mostly content to let it happen, with a few performative grumbles here and there.

Now, for a variety of reasons, Congress is set to play a bigger role on the trade front, whether it wants to or not. Doing so likely will expose a deep divide within the Republican Party—where one faction is trying to claw back congressional control in the trade sphere, while another seeks to hand yet more authority to the chief executive to write the rules for how America participates in the global economy.

Trump asked for the latter during Tuesday’s State of the Union address, calling specifically for Congress to pass the United States Reciprocal Trade Act. “If another country places an unfair tariff on an American product, we can charge them the exact same tariff on the exact same product that they sell to us,” Trump said.

As that explanation suggests, the bill would effectively give the president more excuses to raise trade barriers and impose tariffs, which are really just taxes paid by American importers. For example, the European Union currently charges 10 percent tariffs on cars imported from America but America charges only 2.5 percent on car imports from Europe. If the Reciprocal Trade Act were to become law, Trump could circumvent Congress and raise car tariffs to 10 percent—something that he’s already threatened to do via a different mechanism, and something that would be disastrous for American auto dealers and car-buyers.

The bill has other shortcomings too. It grants authority for the president to respond to “significantly higher tariffs” imposed by other countries, but does not define exactly how high those foreign tariffs must be—which would effectively give Trump and future presidents a blank check to crank up protectionism.

“You could drive a Mack truck through that loophole,” says Scott Lincicome, a trade lawyer and a scholar for the libertarian Cato Institute. “It seems pretty unlikely that, given recent events, the president wouldn’t exploit that authority if it was given to him.”

Indeed, Trump has already made use of the massive loophole in Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. That law gave presidents the authority to impose tariffs for national security purposes but, importantly, did not define what counts as a matter of national security. Trump has used Section 232 to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports—including imports from close U.S. allies like Canada and Europe—under the gossamer-thin rationale that national security is served by increasing the price of imported metals.

Restricting Trump’s ability to continue abusing Section 232 is the aim of the other trade bill now circulating in Congress. As I detailed last week, a bipartisan group of lawmakers from the House and Senate have joined together to sponsor the Bicameral Congressional Trade Authority Act, which would give Congress the ability to block future Section 232 tariff proposals and would limit the definition of “national security” in the law.

The dueling bills are a telling representation of the Republican Party’s Janus-like stance on free trade at the moment. Aside from the “R” that appears next to their name, there is no overlap between the 18 Republicans who have sponsored the Reciprocal Trade Act, sponsored by Rep. Matt Duffy (R–Wis.), and the free-traders, like Sen. Pat Toomey (R–Pa.), backing the Bicameral Congressional Trade Authority Act.

“Senate Republicans are overwhelmingly in favor of free trade,” Toomey said last week. “I am very doubtful that [Duffy’s bill] will work, and fundamentally I think it’s a mistake to just grant this authority to the president. That’s the central problem.”

There’s plenty of other internal disagreements over policy within the Republican Party, on everything from fiscal policy to immigration, and from entitlements to foreign interventions. On trade, however, Republicans are faced with a difference of kind—not of degree. There is effectively no middle ground to be had between those who want to give the president greater power to levy tariffs and those who want to claw back the power he already has. Nor could there be, as the two opinions are not merely opposite policy prescriptions but are based on diametrically opposed views about how the power in Washington should be shared.

“You’ve got the principled, practical guys on the one side who want to limit tariff authority, and then on the other side it’s a group of hardcore Trump supporters who may be looking at this a matter of politics and not policy,” Lincicome says.

This deep division within the Republican Party will likely come to a head not over the tariff bills themselves, but in the upcoming debate over ratifying the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), the new NAFTA.

Though Trump often talks about the USMCA as if it is a done deal, it must be approved by Congress before taking effect. Its chances to pass have already been complicated by Democrats’ takeover of the House, but there is no indication that even a Republican-controlled Congress would pass the USMCA in its current form. Toomey, for example, is on the record as a “no” vote unless changes are made to do away with some of the deal’s protectionist elements, like the stringent barriers for importing automobiles built in Mexico.

Whichever trade bill emerges victorious is likely to be attached to the USMCA, assuming that the trade deal manages to get through Congress. And if either is going to pass this year, one half the GOP will have to prevail over the other.

Asked Wednesday what it would take for pro-trade Republicans to support Trump’s call for the passage of the Reciprocal Trade Act, Sen. Ron Johnson (R–Wisc.) tried to find the largely nonexistent middle ground.

“I certainly would like to see these things approved by Congress,” he said.

Told that the bill Trump wants passed seems designed specifically to circumvent Congress, he paused.

“Well,” Johnson said, “then I’d have a problem with that.”

from Hit & Run http://bit.ly/2SiwKIL
via IFTTT

Justice Department Sues To Block Philadelphia Supervised Injection Site

Trashed drug paraphernaliaPresident Donald Trump said in his State of the Union Address last night that he wants to stop the spread of HIV and AIDS in America within 10 years.

This morning, a Justice Department attorney announced he would try to stop a supervised injection site planned for Philadelphia that would help reduce both the spread of HIV among intravenous drug users and overdose deaths.

U.S. Attorney William McSwain of the Eastern District of Pennsylvania held a press conference Wednesday morning to announce he would be seeking a judicial review that might prevent a local nonprofit named Safehouse from moving forward with plans to build a center funded by private donations.

This nonprofit group is not attempting to force this building and program into the city. Philadelphia officials, including the city’s mayor, police commissioner, and district attorney, are all supportive of a supervised injection center, where intravenous drug users can be supervised by health workers and counseled about treatment options. Philadelphia has a serious problem with drug overdoses and public use, having seen more than 1,200 overdose deaths in 2017.

Other communities with high rates of overdose deaths and outdoor use, like Seattle and San Francisco, are also considering injection facilities. But the Justice Department says such facilities are illegal under federal law, and federal prosecutors have threatened legal actions if these cities move forward.

McSwain’s lawsuit is the first to issue more than just a warning. He’s filing a civil suit and seeking a declaration from the judge that operating an injection center would violate federal drug laws.

McSwain tells the Philadelphia Inquirer that the point here is to essentially scare Safehouse into dropping its plans so that he doesn’t have to prosecute those involved:

“We want to take an incremental, reasonable approach,” McSwain said in the interview. “We’re not interested in some sort of criminal confrontation or drama or trying to be heavy-handed. We think it serves everyone’s interests for the federal court to issue a declaration as to whether this proposed site is illegal or not.”

It is likely that a 1986 federal law will prove central to the case ahead. Known colloquially as the “crack-house statute,” the law makes it a felony punishable by up to 20 years in prison to knowingly open or maintain any place for the purpose of manufacturing, distributing or using controlled substances.

You know what would be a more reasonable approach? Allow Philadelphia to experiment and see if this actually helps. Cities outside the U.S. have had considerable success operating supervised injection facilities, which serve as key hubs for referring drug users into treatment (if they want it), reducing the spread of communicable disease, and otherwise helping city residents manage their addictions in a safe environment.

Last night, after Trump declared he wanted to eliminate the spread of HIV in 10 years, I noted that the administration’s punitive approach to the opioid crisis is a barrier to achieving such a goal. This is a perfect example. A supervised injection site would not only prevent overdose deaths—it would also reduce the spread of HIV and hepatitis by providing clean needles, and it would allow users who have those diseases but don’t know it to get treatment and take preventative measures. A supervised injection facility might not solve Philadelphia’s decades-long heroin crisis, but it’s highly unlikely to make it worse.

from Hit & Run http://bit.ly/2DXKwI4
via IFTTT

Embattled Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam Signs Bill Authorizing $750 Million in Cash Subsidies to Amazon

Embattled Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam has signed a huge incentive package aimed at online retailer Amazon that could see the company get millions in taxpayer-funded grants.

On Tuesday, the Richmond-Times Dispatch reported that Northam signed Senate Bill 1255, which creates a new “Major Headquarters Workforce Grant Fund” that will make available $550 million in grants to any “qualified e-commerce company” that invests at least $2 billion in an Arlington County, Virginia headquarters, and adds a minimum of 25,000 jobs paying an average of $150,000 a year.

Should this “qualified e-commerce company” add up to 37,580 jobs at its new Arlington headquarters, it could receive an additional $200 million in subsidies, bringing the grand total of taxpayer assistance authorized by the bill to $750 million.

The intended recipient of the bill is obviously Amazon, which announced plans to add 25,000 jobs at a new Arlington headquarters complex in November of last year.

That same month, Northam publicly released a “Memorandum of Understanding” between the Virginia state government and the e-commerce giant, promising the company an identical deal to what the governor signed today. That memorandum also included a promise of $295 million in state infrastructure investments in and around Amazon’s new headquarters.

Offering massive subsidies to companies as a way of luring jobs and investment is hardly a practice unique to Virginia, although this specific proposal to award Amazon nearly a $1 billion in cash payments—as opposed to tax credits or abatements—is somewhat unusual.

The $3 billion in government incentives offered to Amazon to set up another 25,000-person headquarters in New York City, for instance, were mostly city and state tax breaks.

A bill ratifying Northam’s Memorandum of Understanding with the online retailer flew through the state legislature. The state senate passed the bill in a lopsided 35-to-5 vote. The state’s House of Delegates approved the bill with an equally uneven 83-to-16 vote.

No one was more pleased with the signing of the bill today than its sole recipient.

“This is an investment in the growth of Virginia. It will help diversify the economy and serve as a catalyst for drawing in other businesses and sought-after jobs,” said Amazon spokesperson Jill Kerr to the Times-Dispatch.

The subsidy bill signed into law by Northam today, while sizable, is far less than some of the other subsidy deals offered by other states and municipalities in their desperate bid to lure Amazon to town.

One of the last acts of Chris Christie’s tenure as governor of New Jersey was to sign a bill greenlighting $5 billion in incentives should Amazon set up shop in the Garden State. Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan floated a similarly sized $5 billion incentive package in January 2018.

The fact that Amazon passed on these more generous bids suggests that the subsidies signed by Northam today were not all that necessary.

“At the end of the day, it suggests that even New York City and Virginia and Nashville didn’t really need to offer those subsidies, because Amazon is chasing other factors,” Michael Farren, a research fellow at the Mercatus Center, a free market think tank housed at George Mason University, told Reason‘s Eric Boehm back in November 2018.

(Amazon was awarded $102 million in state and local incentives for adding a smaller, 5,000-person headquarters in Nashville, Tennessee.)

Certainly, one would think that a company capable of hiring 25,000 people at an average salary of $150,000 would be the last entity to need taxpayer support. The money Virginia taxpayers will be spending on Amazon either means fewer dollars for genuine public services, or higher taxes for the state’s residents.

Northam is receiving a lot of heat right now for a photo in his medical school yearbook showing a person in blackface standing next to a person in a KKK costume. Northam has forcefully denied being in that picture, but has admitted to wearing blackface during a 1984 dance competition.

These revelations have spurred calls for Northam to resign, something the governor has so far resisted.

His signing over of as much as $750 million in taxpayer subsidies to one of the most successful private companies in the world is a reminder of how terrible politicians can be even when going about the normal business of policy-making.

from Hit & Run http://bit.ly/2MZpxrr
via IFTTT

Apple Appoints New Retail Head As iPhone Sales Slump Drags On

With sales of its signature iPhone slumping and CEO Tim Cook shifting the emphasis to Apple’s booming services business, the company announced on Tuesday that long-time retail head Angela Ahrendt will be leaving the company after a five-year stint at the consumer tech giant.

And on Wednesday morning, the company revealed that Ahrendt – who joined Apple from British fashion house Burberry – will be replaced by Deirdre O’Brien, currently the company’s head of HR, who will now enjoy a new (if unorthodox) dual role as head of retail and people.

Angela

Angela Ahrendt

Analysts greeted the news of O’Brien’s appointment with enthusiasm, though some noted that her combined role could be a source of confusion.

“We are encouraged that a core Apple insider took over the reigns at this juncture,” said Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities. “An outsider running retail going into one of the most pivotal, defining periods for Cook & Co. in the company’s history would have been a risky endeavor.”

Still, others questioned O’Brien’s dual role. “Combining HR and retail into one position is more than a little bit odd,” Michael Gartenberg, a former senior marketing executive at Apple, wrote on Twitter. “Apple clearly didn’t want the retail position to be left blank. It will be interesting to see how this plays out longer term.”

O’Brien is a more than 30-year veteran at Apple. And her ascension to the retail chief job makes her the first company insider to take on the role since Ron Johnson, the original architect of the Apple store, left the company in 2011, according to Bloomberg.

The nature of O’Brien’s new role is unique, and some might argue reflective of the company’s impending shift away from retail to focus more on its services business. Though, as the Financial Times noted, before stepping into the HR chief role, O’Brien was involved with some of the company’s early product launches.

O'Brien

Deirdre O’Brien

Before coming to Apple, Ahrendt was credited with reviving the fortunes of Burberry. And while at Apple, she helped pioneer the modern Apple store layout, where staff roam around with iPads – a layout that cuts down on lines, but has been criticized by some for being “too chaotic.”

Also, Ahrendt’s departure comes as the company has backed away from her vision for the Apple Watch, which she sought to market as a luxury product – with some early models retailing for as much as $10,000. In recent interviews, Cook has teased that the next iteration of the watch will have more of a health and wellness focus. 

During her nearly eight years at Burberry, Ms Ahrendts was hailed for reviving the British fashion brand with a combination of savvy digital marketing and an enticing in-store experience that appealed to a younger generation of consumers, alongside an expansion into China just as the luxury market there took off. At Apple, she has described its retail stores as “town squares” — venues not just for selling products but for customer support, talks and concerts, and educational programmes. She often sought out landmark sites for new stores, such as London’s Covent Garden, New York’s Grand Central Station and, opening soon, the former Carnegie Library in Washington, DC.

Cook has reportedly also started to rethink the “no-discounts” approach favored by Ahrendts. In order to reduce the company’s reliance on mobile providers, Cook has been toying with an approach whereby Apple will offer customers discounts on the newest phones if they trade in their old phones.

Apple has blamed the slump in iPhone sales on the slowdown in China (which it cited as the primary reason for its first quarterly revenue guidance cut in 16 years last month) and the fact that consumers have been waiting longer to upgrade their phones.

But we can think of at least one way O’Brien could stimulate sales and distinguish herself as a visionary in the retail field, all at the same time: Announce across-the-board price cuts for newer iPhone models.

The company’s customers, and probably its suppliers, would thank her.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2GaIdUx Tyler Durden

Fairfax Accuser: “What Started As Consensual Kissing Quickly Turned Into A Sexual Assault” 

Vanessa Tyson, who has accused Virginia Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax (D) of sexual assault, issued a statement on Wednesday detailing her version of the alleged sexual assault which “began as consensual kissing” and “quickly turned into a sexual assault.” 

Tyson claims in her account that “Mr. Fairfax forced me to perform oral sex on him” during a 20004 encounter at the Democratic National Convention in Boston.

Fairfax admits he and Tyson had relations, but claims it was consensual. 

“At no time did she express to me any discomfort or concern about our interactions, neither during that encounter nor doing the months following it, when she stayed in touch with me, nor the past fifteen years,” said Fairfax in a statement earlier Wednesday, adding “She in no way indicated that anything that had happened between us made her uncomfortable.”

Developing…

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2HTGbtq Tyler Durden

Trump Decries Unjust Crack Sentences but Wants to Repeat the Mistake With Fentanyl

Donald Trump’s remarks about criminal justice reform during last night’s State of the Union address were striking and seemingly heartfelt. He introduced two former federal prisoners, both African American, who had received draconian sentences for nonviolent drug crimes: Alice Johnson, whom he freed last year by commuting her life sentence for participating in a cocaine conspiracy, and Matthew Charles, whose 35-year sentence for selling crack was shortened by the FIRST STEP Act, which Trump championed. “Alice’s story underscores the disparities and unfairness that can exist in criminal sentencing, and the need to remedy this total injustice,” he said. The president added that the FIRST STEP Act, which passed with overwhelming support in the House and Senate after he endorsed it, “reformed sentencing laws that have wrongly and disproportionately harmed the African American community.”

Charles benefited from a provision of the FIRST STEP Act that retroactively applied penalty reductions approved by Congress in 2010. The 2010 law, the Fair Sentencing Act, was a belated acknowledgment that the crack sentencing scheme created by Congress in the 1980s was a panicky response to the drug menace du jour that proved to be irrational, unjust, and harmful to the very communities it was supposed to protect. Despite agreeing with that critique, Trump seems inclined to repeat the same pattern in response to the “opioid crisis.”

Trump’s references to that subject last night focused on the wall that he mistakenly thinks will stop the “lethal drugs that cross our border and flood into our cities.” But according to the “Opioid Initiative” he unveiled last year, he also wants to “strengthen criminal penalties for dealing and trafficking in fentanyl and other opioids.” Specifically, Trump urged Congress to “pass legislation that reduces the threshold amount of drugs needed to invoke mandatory minimum sentences for drug traffickers who knowingly distribute certain illicit opioids that are lethal in trace amounts.”

Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.)—who, not coincidentally, was a leading opponent of the FIRST STEP Act—introduced such a bill three days later. It would reduce the threshold for a five-year mandatory minimum from 40 grams to two grams of fentanyl and from 10 grams to half a gram of a fentany analog. The threshold for a 10-year mandatory minimum would drop from 400 to 20 grams of fentanyl and from 100 to five grams of an analog. Those weights apply to mixtures containing fentanyl or its analogs, so any detectable amount of either would effectively boost the penalties for selling heroin or other drugs.

The weight thresholds favored by Cotton could easily ensnare low-level dealers or minor participants in small drug trafficking operations, resulting in the same sort of injustices that the president decries in the context of crack sentences. Like the legislators who voted for the crack penalties that nearly everyone now agrees were excessive, Cotton thinks the special hazards posed by these particular drugs justify an especially harsh response.

“Fentanyl is one of the most dangerous drugs there is,” the senator said when he announced the bill. “It killed more than 20,000 Americans last year and has been a driving force behind the opioid crisis in the United States. But while the epidemic has spiraled, our drug laws have been stuck in the past. This bill will make sure, when it comes to opioid distribution and trafficking, the punishment fits the crime.”

Cotton is right that fentanyl and its analogs are involved in a large and rising share of opioid-related deaths—60 percent in 2017, according to the CDC. But the problem is not simply fentanyl’s strength relative to heroin; it’s the variability and unpredictability of black-market drugs. People could consume any of these substances without dying if they knew what they were getting, but prohibition makes that impossible, even as it drives traffickers toward more potent and compact drugs. Cotton’s solution is to double down on an approach that is already making drug use much more dangerous than it would otherwise be.

While the difference between heroin and fentanyl is more significant than the difference between the smoked and snorted forms of cocaine, Cotton’s notion that the government needs to hike fentanyl penalties so that “the punishment fits the crime” is highly dubious, even if you agree that voluntary transactions between adults should be treated as crimes. Not only are drug warriors like Cotton complicit in creating the deadly hazards they claim to be combating, but the street dealers they want to wallop with mandatory minimums may be just as much in the dark about the contents of what they’re selling as their customers are. How is the average dealer supposed to know whether the “heroin” he is selling has been mixed with (or entirely replaced by) fentanyl? And if he doesn’t know, subjecting him to extra-severe penalties makes no sense even as a deterrent, let alone as a proportionate punishment.

Trump seems genuinely torn between a “tough-on-crime” instinct that pushes him toward mindlessly punitive conservatives like Cotton and compassion for people like Alice Johnson and Matthew Charles, which ultimately led him to oppose Cotton and side with reformers such as Jared Kushner, Rand Paul, and (yes) Kim and Kanye in the debate over the FIRST STEP Act. The latter impulse may prevail in any given situation, depending on who talked to Trump last or made more of an impression. What’s missing is an understanding that the policies Cotton favors will inevitably lead to more injustices like the ones the president highlighted last night.

from Hit & Run http://bit.ly/2BnZB3M
via IFTTT

Brace For Impact

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

As credit-asset bubbles pop, the dominoes start falling.

The economy is far more precarious than the surface boom/bubble suggests. A great many households, enterprises and municipalities are in overloaded boats whose gunwales are just a few inches above the water; the slightest wave will swamp and sink them.

The cost structure of the economy is completely out of whack with what households and enterprises can afford. There are several dynamics in play:

1. Enterprises have already stripped out all the expenses they can: head count has been cut, quality has been gutted, quantity has been reduced, supply chains have been squeezed, inventory controls trimmed to just-in-time and so on. There are no easy, quick cost reductions available except laying off employees. Every other cost-cutting strategy has been milked dry.

2. Costs are soaring despite the low rate of officially measured inflation. I recently found some notes from 1995–a long time ago, 24 years. The dot-com bubble–the first of this era’s three great asset bubbles–was inflating rapidly but official inflation was low, around 2.5% to 3% annually.

A slice of pizza was $1.50, a main dish in a Chinese restaurant was $4.50 and rent for a one-bedroom apartment in the S.F. Bay Area was $650/month. Now the pizza slice is $4.25 plus 9.25% tax, $4.65; the main dish is $11.95 plus 9.25% tax, $13.05, and rents for one-bedroom apartments far exceed $2,000/month in desirable neighborhoods.

Official inflation is $1 in 1995 equals $1.67 today. So a $1.50 slice of pizza in 1995 should cost $2.50 today, the $4.50 main dish should cost $7.50, and the $650 monthly rent should be $1,085. Real-world inflation has outstripped the bogus official rate in sector after sector. So TVs have dropped in price; big deal. How often do you buy a TV?

Costs have tripled in 24 years, but have wages tripled? No. In many cases, they haven’t even kept pace with official inflation, much less real-world inflation. How many people earning $40,000 in 1995 are now earning $67,000, the minimum increase needed to match the rise in official inflation? Nobody I know. How many positions paying $40,000 in 1995 are now paying $120,000 for the same job? I think we can safely say none.

3. The majority of gains in income and wealth have flowed to the top 5%, and most of the gains in the top 5% have flowed to the apex of that income bracket. So when we read that average household wealth has increased or median wages have increased, the reality is these statistics mask the actual distribution of income and wealth gains, which are skewed heavily to the top 5% income/wealth brackets.

This chart is a few years old but the trend hasn’t changed.

Long-term distribution of gains continues to favor the top 1%.

Enterprises are precarious because their costs are high and there’s nothing left to cut. A relatively modest decline in revenues will cut profits / owners’ incomes to less than zero.

Households in high-cost regions are barely above water. Any reduction in household income will push these households into insolvency.

As credit-asset bubbles pop, the dominoes start falling. As real estate rolls over, lending and construction activity decline, triggering layoffs. As household income takes a hit, the days of spending $15 for lunch every day plus a $5 coffee and $4 bagel go away. The only way for enterprises absorbing revenue declines to survive is to lay off employees, which reduces the pool of consumers with disposable income.

Relying on the free-spending top 5% is also a recipe for fragility. The highest paid employees are the last plum target left for corporate cost-cutters, and the biggest targets for software/AI/automation. The janitors making minimum wage ($15/hour now in many locales) are not that exposed to automation, and the gains would be modest any way. But reducing the head count of employees earning $120,000 and up makes a significant positive impact on the bottom line as revenues stagnate or plummet.

Sorry, boom-time America: the lifestyle you ordered in now out of stock and we have no indication it will be in stock again within the foreseeable future.

In summary: brace for impact.

*  *  *

Pathfinding our Destiny: Preventing the Final Fall of Our Democratic Republic ($6.95 ebook, $12 print): Read the first section for free in PDF format. My new mystery The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake is a ridiculously affordable $1.29 (Kindle) or $8.95 (print); read the first chapters for free (PDF). My book Money and Work Unchained is now $6.95 for the Kindle ebook and $15 for the print edition. Read the first section for free in PDF format. If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2GdG9uY Tyler Durden