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Despite the BLS claiming no states estimated their data and the previous week’s apparently errant (but significantly not revised lower), the claims data this week saw its biggest week-over-week percentage drop since January 2006 (which ironically almost perfectly bottom-ticked the previous ‘recovery’ claims improvements). Continuing claims, however, rose for the 3rd week in a row – the largest 3-week rise in since March 2009! Of course, the more critical part of the labor department’s report is the end of the Emergency Unemployment Compensation (EUC) program which will pay one more claim this week and then 1,333,332 will begin to lose their benefits. EUC benefits cannot be paid for any week of unemployment after Dec 28th (which, of course, is great news for the unemployment rate). 

Initial Claims dropped the most since Jan 2006!

 

and Continuing Claims have seen the biggest 3-week rise since March 2009…

 

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/25cZprcnkKk/story01.htm Tyler Durden

As the holiday spending season draws to a close, there has been a huge schism between hope and reality once again as captured by these two numbers: 3.9% and -3.5%. The first, aka hope, is how much the national retail federation predicted holiday sales would rise by at the start of the holiday season; the second, aka reality, is how much in-store retail sales declined by in the week before Christmas. So what is a despondent retail industry – which unlike the stock market can’t put off delivering results forever – to do? Why bet it all on a huge after-Christmas surge of course. 

As USA Today reports, some online sales, including at Target.com and Kohls.com, start on Christmas Day. And for sales die-hards, many Wal-Mart and Kohl’s stores will open on Thursday by 5 a.m. “This is an especially big time for people who got gift cards to come and spend on what they didn’t get for Christmas,” says Sarah McKinney, a Wal-Mart spokeswoman. It is also the single-most popular day to redeem Target gift cards. Then again, one wonders just how hacked those are…

A quick summary of the panicked retailers’ biggest sales incentives and deals to offload all leftover inventory heading into 2014 is presented below (via USAToday)

• Buy one, get one free. Macy’s rolls out buy one, get one free deals on many men’s dress shirts and designer suits, says spokeswoman Elina Kazan.
• Cheap appliances. Sears is offering up to 40% off on appliances for shoppers who use their Sears card to purchase appliances over $499, says spokesman Brian Hanover.
• Free Gas. Kmart is offering its “Shop Your Way” members 50 cents per gallon gas discounts when they spend $25 or more on specific Procter & Gamble products.
• Half-price toys. Target, hit by a credit card and debit card breach that affected up to 40 million consumers, plans sales of up to 50% off select toys and 40% off thousands of apparel items. The sales have no relation to and were not affected by the data breach, says LaFromboise.
• Items 25% to 50% off. Wal-Mart stores will have “thousands” of items at 25% to 50% off, says McKinney. Among them: a Nintendo 3DS XL System for $199.96 — plus a $50 Wal-Mart gift card, with purchase.
• $10 coupons. J.C. Penney will offer coupons for $10 off purchases of $25 of more in a Christmas Day circular and also a coupon that can be printed from its website. The coupons are good through Dec. 28, says spokeswoman Daphne Availa.
• Hot toy deals. Buy one, get one 40% off on some red-hot toys, including Skylanders figures and accessories, at Toys R Us, through New Year’s Day. The same offer applies to all video games. The post-Christmas deals are three days longer than last year, says spokeswoman Linda DeNotaris.
• Big incentives. At Kohl’s, shoppers who spend under $100 will save an additional 15% off nearly everything in the store, while those who spend over $100 will save an additional 20%, says spokeswoman Jen Johnson.
• 33% off men’s wear. Nordstrom’s Half-Yearly Sale for men, which reduces prices as much as 33%, begins online Dec. 25 and in stores Dec. 26, says spokesman John Bailey.

Finally, for those who are not tempted by consumer culture and the buy 1 get [   ] free deals, there is always the stock market with its just as tempting blue light special to BTFATH…. again and again…. courtesy of the Fed.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/IZnUyGsu3Mc/story01.htm Tyler Durden

As the holiday spending season draws to a close, there has been a huge schism between hope and reality once again as captured by these two numbers: 3.9% and -3.5%. The first, aka hope, is how much the national retail federation predicted holiday sales would rise by at the start of the holiday season; the second, aka reality, is how much in-store retail sales declined by in the week before Christmas. So what is a despondent retail industry – which unlike the stock market can’t put off delivering results forever – to do? Why bet it all on a huge after-Christmas surge of course. 

As USA Today reports, some online sales, including at Target.com and Kohls.com, start on Christmas Day. And for sales die-hards, many Wal-Mart and Kohl’s stores will open on Thursday by 5 a.m. “This is an especially big time for people who got gift cards to come and spend on what they didn’t get for Christmas,” says Sarah McKinney, a Wal-Mart spokeswoman. It is also the single-most popular day to redeem Target gift cards. Then again, one wonders just how hacked those are…

A quick summary of the panicked retailers’ biggest sales incentives and deals to offload all leftover inventory heading into 2014 is presented below (via USAToday)

• Buy one, get one free. Macy’s rolls out buy one, get one free deals on many men’s dress shirts and designer suits, says spokeswoman Elina Kazan.
• Cheap appliances. Sears is offering up to 40% off on appliances for shoppers who use their Sears card to purchase appliances over $499, says spokesman Brian Hanover.
• Free Gas. Kmart is offering its “Shop Your Way” members 50 cents per gallon gas discounts when they spend $25 or more on specific Procter & Gamble products.
• Half-price toys. Target, hit by a credit card and debit card breach that affected up to 40 million consumers, plans sales of up to 50% off select toys and 40% off thousands of apparel items. The sales have no relation to and were not affected by the data breach, says LaFromboise.
• Items 25% to 50% off. Wal-Mart stores will have “thousands” of items at 25% to 50% off, says McKinney. Among them: a Nintendo 3DS XL System for $199.96 — plus a $50 Wal-Mart gift card, with purchase.
• $10 coupons. J.C. Penney will offer coupons for $10 off purchases of $25 of more in a Christmas Day circular and also a coupon that can be printed from its website. The coupons are good through Dec. 28, says spokeswoman Daphne Availa.
• Hot toy deals. Buy one, get one 40% off on some red-hot toys, including Skylanders figures and accessories, at Toys R Us, through New Year’s Day. The same offer applies to all video games. The post-Christmas deals are three days longer than last year, says spokeswoman Linda DeNotaris.
• Big incentives. At Kohl’s, shoppers who spend under $100 will save an additional 15% off nearly everything in the store, while those who spend over $100 will save an additional 20%, says spokeswoman Jen Johnson.
• 33% off men’s wear. Nordstrom’s Half-Yearly Sale for men, which reduces prices as much as 33%, begins online Dec. 25 and in stores Dec. 26, says spokesman John Bailey.

Finally, for those who are not tempted by consumer culture and the buy 1 get [   ] free deals, there is always the stock market with its just as tempting blue light special to BTFATH…. again and again…. courtesy of the Fed.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/IZnUyGsu3Mc/story01.htm Tyler Durden

• Late Surge in Web Buying Blindsides UPS, Retailers, Some Christmas Packages Aren’t Delivered (WSJ)
• Yen Slides as Turkish Stocks Drop, U.S. Futures Rise (BBG)
• Turkish lira drops to record low against dollar, as Turkey’s Erdogan replaces 10 ministers (FT)
• Egypt designates Muslim Brotherhood as terrorist group (Reuters)
• Thai elections in doubt after political violence (AFP)
• Batista Cedes Oil Unit Control in $5.8 Billion Debt Deal (BBG)
• China celebrates Mao’s birthday, but events scaled back (Reuters)
• First-class stamps to cost 49 cents as of Jan. 26 (AP)
• Obamacare Hits Snag in States as U.S. Site Finds Footing (BBG)
• NSA Struggles to Make Sense of Flood of Surveillance Data (WSJ)
• China Estimates 2013 Growth at 7.6% as Challenges Seen Ahead (BBG)
• Colleges Trim Staffing Bloat (WSJ)
• The Impending Bollywood Boom at the U.S. Box Office (BBG)
• Foreign Investors Face Hurdles in China’s Bond Market (WSJ)
• Sony, Panasonic Call Off OLED TV Tie-Up (WSJ)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

* Turkey Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan shuffled his cabinet after an old ally pressed him to resign, in the latest fallout from a corruption case.

* Republican leaders and their corporate allies have launched an array of efforts aimed at diminishing the clout of the party’s most conservative activists and promoting legislation instead of confrontation next year.

* A last-minute influx of enrollees prompted the Obama administration and some states to keep the rolls open for Jan. 1 coverage.

* The U.S. National Security Agency is drowning in useless data, which harms its ability to conduct legitimate surveillance, claims a former employee who created some of the computer code used to snoop on Internet traffic.

* The end of the year is the peak trash season across America, a superlative earned by all the eating, parties and gift giving that people do, and by the growing use of package deliveries from online purchases.

* A pick-up in business investment and robust new-home sales point to an economy on stronger footing heading into the new year. Orders for U.S. durable goods — big-ticket items such as cars and aircraft designed to last more than three years — rose 3.5 percent last month, reversing a decline in October, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday.

* Municipal bonds are on track to post their worst annual performance in nearly two decades as 2013 ushered in more financial woes for U.S. cities. Municipal debt is down 2.58 percent so far this year after handing investors a 6.78 percent return in 2012 and a 10.70 percent return in 2011, according to Barclays’s municipal-bond index.

* U.S. colleges and universities are starting to unwind decades of administrative bloat and back-office waste that helped push up costs and tuition.

* Sherritt International Corp is facing pressure from an activist shareholder amid plans to sell its coal business and focus on its nickel and oil operations.

* Sony Corp and Panasonic Corp have decided to end a development venture that would produce technology to make big and ultrathin televisions, underscoring the challenges of bringing next-generation TVs to the mass market.

 

NYT

* While other types of health care costs might be declining, the cost of emergency room care for the mentally ill shows no sign of ebbing.

* Banks that comply with Islamic law are making inroads into the global banking scene and Western businesses are working to meet the expectations of those banks. The banks can not find enough acceptable places to park their money, many industry insiders say, so investment bankers are scurrying to assemble deals.

* Wind power developers are signing deals, ordering equipment and lurching ahead with construction starts to qualify for a tax credit that is worth 2.3 cents a kilowatt-hour for the first 10 years of production. This month, giant turbine-makers like Vestas Wind Systems Ltd and Siemens AG have announced major new orders, including a deal worth more than $1 billion with MidAmerican Energy Holdings, an Iowa-based utility majority-owned by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc.

* Some customers were left without Christmas gifts as United Parcel Service Inc failed to meet delivery deadlines in the face of bad weather and an unexpectedly large surge in demand.

* Mike Lazaridis, a founder and former executive at BlackBerry Ltd , took advantage of a rare rise in its share price to cut his stake in the company.

* The American Bankers Association, an industry trade group, filed a motion in federal court on Tuesday in Washington seeking to quickly suspend one part of the Volcker Rule, which was officially completed two weeks ago.

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

* Mike Lazaridis has cashed in shares of BlackBerry Ltd , making $26 million in the process, as he lessens his stake in the smartphone company he helped create.

Reports in the business section:

* Centerra Gold Inc said on Tuesday it reached a non-binding agreement with the government of the Kyrgyz Republic that could pave the way for joint ownership of Kumtor, the country’s flagship gold mine.

* Torq Energy Logistics, an affiliate of privately held Torq Transloading Inc, said on Tuesday that private equity firm KKR & Co has agreed to invest C$250 million ($235.3 million) to fund Torq’s capital program and acquisition strategy.

* Massive protests and court challenges based on native rights are likely after a National Energy Board decision that gave conditional approval to Enbridge Inc’s Northern Gateway pipeline, say First Nations, environmental groups and others opposed to the project.

NATIONAL POST

* In the six months after the Senate determined his primary residence was in Ottawa, Senator Mike Duffy claimed expenses of more than C$23,000 for travel to and from the province he represents in the red chamber.

 

China

CHINA SECURITIES JOURNAL

– China will push forward the development of a modernized seed industry, China’s vice premier Wang Yang said at a conference on Tuesday. Measures will include enhancing levels of scientific research and protecting seed bank resources.

– China may soon be able to export high-speed rail technology. The first order is likely to come from Eastern Europe, sources told the paper, a potential boost for railway maker China CNR Corp Ltd, as it already manufactures to European standards.

– China’s GDP growth is estimated to hit 7.7 percent this year and 7.8 percent in 2014, according to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a government think tank. Bank of China Ltd estimates GDP growth to be 7.6 percent.

NATIONAL BUSINESS DAILY

– China’s new regulations to raise consumer trust in domestic infant milk formula will be the strictest in China for any food type, said Teng Jiacai, deputy head of the China Food and Drug Administration.

CHINA DAILY

– China is making unprecedented efforts to ensure grain security, urging a 95 percent self-sufficient ratio, according to official targets announced this week.

PEOPLE’S DAILY

– New anti-graft guidelines released this week will greatly enhance China’s ability to battle rampant official corruption, according to a commentary in the Party’s mouthpiece paper. President Xi Jinping has vowed to make stamping out official corruption a key focus of his administration.

 

Fly On The Wall 7:00 AM Market Snapshot

ANALYST RESEARCH

Eagle Rock Energy (EROC) upgraded to Market Perform at Raymond James
Amazon.com (AMZN) ChannelAdvisor data implies slight upside, says Piper Jaffray

HOT STOCKS

SuperCom (SPCB) acquired Smart ID division of On Track Innovations (OTIV)
Lender Processing (LPS) announced FTC approval of Fidelity National (FNF) acquisition

NEWSPAPERS/WEBSITES

• A few early studies are labeling the winners in a year where growth of online shopping has continued to outpace regular retail sales. Three retailers delivered within three days: Costco.com (COST), OfficeDepot.com (ODP) and Sears.com (SHLD), the Wall Street Journal reports
• Yahoo (YHOO) may be dressed like a high-growth company but much of its value rests on its 24% stake in Alibaba. When Alibaba completes its IPO, expected next year, investors must ask whether Yahoo still is worth owning, the Wall Street Journal reports
• The hackers who attacked Target (TGT) and compromised up to 40M credit cards and debit cards also managed to steal encrypted personal identification numbers (PINs), sources say, Reuters reports
• BP (BP) failed to persuade a U.S. federal judge to require businesses seeking to recover money over the 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill to provide proof that their economic losses were caused by the disaster, Reuters reports
• Volkswagen (VLKAY) is poised to sell more vehicles in China than GM (GM) for the first time in nine years, regaining its place as the biggest foreign carmaker in the world’s largest auto market, Bloomberg reports
• Apollo Global Management (APO) received approval from investors to increase the limit on its next buyout fund to $17.5B from $15B, sources say. The firm expects to finish raising the fund this month, a source added, Bloomberg reports

SYNDICATE

DS Healthcare Group (DSKX) announces $2.42M private placement
Oramed (ORMP) to raise $15.8M in registered direct offering

ACTIVIST/PASSIVE FILINGS

Michael Lazaridis lowers stake in BlackBerry (BBRY) to 4.99%
Starboard Value lowers stake in DSP Group (DSPG) to 8.7% from 10.1%

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/vt6xrGOmqIo/story01.htm Tyler Durden

The latest overnight meltup which has pushed the DJIA and S&P to new implied record opens has been driven by, what else, the falling Yen, which after tumbling to fresh new 5 year lows following the release of the BOJ minutes (which said nothing new), has sent both the Nikkei higher by 1%, to post-2008 highs of 16,174, while the S&P, up about 5 points just shy of 1840, and has only three trading days in which it should close the gap to the central banks’ price target of 1900 as we first showed in April.

In the absence of any actual newsflow (we now live in a world in which both good and bad news are P/E multiple beneficial, just continue keeping an eye on the EURJPY and the USDJPY – these are the only two signals tht matter for the market.

The other, far less relevant, overnight bulletin points are summarized by Bloomberg:

• Treasuries steady, with 10Y yields holding near YTD high seen in Sept.; trading quiet with U.K. closed for Boxing Day and before New Year’s holiday next week.
• The Turkish lira weakened to a record low vs USD after a third government minister resigned amid a corruption probe and urged Prime Minister Erdogan to do the same
• Shinzo Abe visited Yasukuni Shrine on Mao’s birthday, drawing a quick rebuke from China for paying respects at a site that memorializes war-dead including World War II criminals
• China estimates that growth slowed to 7.6% his year, with mounting challenges putting pressure on the nation’s traditional growth model of investment-led spending, according to Xinhua
• Thai police fired tear gas and rubber bullets at protesters trying to break into a Bangkok arena where political parties were registering for a snap election meant to ease months of unrest
• A homemade bomb exploded alongside a public bus near a Cairo campus, coming two days after a deadly attack on a Nile Delta police headquarters that prompted Egypt’s military- backed government to brand the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist group
• The U.K. government is considering rule changes that would make it easier for new banks and alternative finance providers to provide funding to small and medium-sized companies
• From Maryland to Hawaii, Obamacare’s state-run enrollment operations are running into technical difficulties, creating new headaches for the White House even as the federal insurance website finds its footing
• Former NSA contractor Edward Snowden, in a Christmas message on a London television station, called government surveillance worse than anything envisioned by George Orwell in “1984”
• BofAML Corporate Master Index OAS narrows to new YTD low 129bps; $50b has priced this month. High Yield Master II OAS narrows 4bps to 396bps, new tight since 2007; nearly $21b priced in Dec. CDX High Yield closed at 108.48, third consecutive record, from 108.35; YTD low 101.03 (June 24)
• European sovereign markets closed. Nikkei gains, China stocks decline to four-month lows; U.S. equity-index futures rise. WTI crude little changed, copper and gold higher

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/I2Cp44pS9Vw/story01.htm Tyler Durden