Fed "Tightens" – Tapers $10 Billion

Despite the world of mainstream media pundits proclaiming the US is recovering nicely and that a taper is priced in (and the warning that the 5Y auction gave this morning that it's not), markets are already reacting violently to the Fed's decision to announce a small 'taper' (and more dovish forward guidance)…

  • *FED TAPERS QE TO $75 BLN MONTHLY PACE, STARTING IN JANUARY
  • *FED SAYS `FURTHER MEASURED STEPS' POSSIBLE ON TAPERING
  • *FED: EXCEPTIONALLY LOW RATES UNTIL JOBLESS FALLS WELL PAST 6.5%

We now leave it to Ben and his final press conference to explain his decision… and, of course, make sure everyone remembers "QE is for Main Street", 'tapering is not tightening' (despite Jim Bullard telling us it is), and just how effective 'forward guidance' is.

Pre-FOMC: S&P Fut 1771 (spiked pre-FOMC), 5Y 1.55%, 10Y 2.875%, VIX 16.5%, Gold $1236 (which was spiking pre-FOMC), EUR 1.376

Full red-line to follow…

 

As a reminder, here are the 4 reasons why the Fed was cornered into taperingas we have noted numerous times before; the "taper" is all about economic cover for a forced move the Fed has to make:

1. Deficits are shrinking and the Fed has less and less room for its buying

 

2. Under the surface, various non-mainstream technicalities are breaking in the markets due to the size of the Fed's position (repo markets, bond specialness, and fail-to-delivers among them).

 

3. Sentiment is critical; if the public starts to believe (as Kyle Bass warned) that the central bank is monetizing the government's debt (which it clearly is), then the game accelerates away from them very quickly – and we suspect they fear we are close to that tipping point

 

4. The rest of the world is not happy. As Canada just noted, the US monetary policy will be discussed at the G-20

Simply put, they were cornered and needed to Taper sooner rather later…

 

and as Jim Bullard previously noted,

 

Financial market reaction to the June and September FOMC meetings provides sharp evidence that changes in the expected pace of asset purchases have conventional monetary policy effects.

 

Using the pace of purchases as the policy instrument is just as effective as normal monetary policy actions would be in normal times”

 

Or – in other words:

Tapering Is Tightening

 

And as BAML noted previously, forward guidance is ineffective as,

…policy makers are finding it harder to convince markets that central bankers have more insight into the future course of the economy and policy than they actually do. Meanwhile, markets are learning that it can be painful to rely too heavily on forward guidance when the risk/reward of being long fixed income is asymmetrical when close to the zero lower bound.

Full Statement redline below:

 

 


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/cPjabKT6hnM/story01.htm Tyler Durden

24 Of 68 Un-"Qualified" Economists Expect A Taper

Of the 68 “economists” (which incidentally none of which are “qualified”) that Bloomberg surveyed, 24 believe a taper is coming with the majority expecting a $10 billion cut in the asset-purchase program.

 

 

(h/t Not_Jim_Cramer)


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/ZG4M-S8X8VI/story01.htm Tyler Durden

24 Of 68 Un-“Qualified” Economists Expect A Taper

Of the 68 “economists” (which incidentally none of which are “qualified”) that Bloomberg surveyed, 24 believe a taper is coming with the majority expecting a $10 billion cut in the asset-purchase program.

 

 

(h/t Not_Jim_Cramer)


    



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Thomas Friedman Parody of the Week

Staring contest.Alex
Pareene is doing his annual hack list at
Salon, and the conceit this year is that he writes each
entry in the hack’s own voice. This means, among other things,
that he has posted a Thomas
Friedman parody
.

This raises the issue: Does the world need another Thomas
Friedman parody? At this point literally every single Thomas
Friedman column is itself a self-parody, and if that doesn’t
exhaust your appetite there’s a website that generates still more
parodies automatically.
It is possible that Friedman himself uses that site to create a
column when he’s feeling rushed, which would explain how
this
managed to make it into the paper.

But Pareene took an extra step by asking: You know how
people love to complain about how awful Thomas Friedman is? What
would their complaints sound like if they were written by Thomas
Friedman?
Here is what he came up with:

When I was in Singapore, I talked to hundreds of Asian
college students, business people and diplomats, and while none of
them said this to me, exactly, it’s basically my thesis and

so I’m going to put it in quotation marks as a sort of
“distillation” of things I probably was told by people
: “Is
everything going all right over there in America? How could the
people who gave us Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, IBM, H.P. and Google
also have so many people, many of them in positions of authority,
who take a clown like Thomas Friedman seriously? Most of his
columns are just
nonsensical buzzwords he’s been repeating for literally 10
years
and his foreign policy analysis is usually either
incredibly facile or actively offensive to Arabs and Muslims. It’s
actually terrifying how influential he is. Like it legitimately
makes me despair of anything improving anywhere in the world for
anyone but the super-rich. Also there is probably some Times rule
about not putting ‘distilled’ quotes in quotation marks,
right?”

When I heard that—or rather when I didn’t hear it but when I wrote
it, just now—I thought “we’re
gonna need a bigger boat.”
And that boat better have
Wi-Fi.

Friedman-bashing aficionados can read the rest here.

from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2013/12/18/thomas-friedman-parody-of-the-week
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The Libertarian Trend in Costa Rica

GuevaraCentral American countries have
been badly misruled by oligarchs for most of their
post-independence histories. The result is that Nicaragua,
Guatemala, and Honduras are the 2nd, 3rd, and 6th
poorest countries
in the Western Hemisphere. The one exception
in the region has been Costa Rica where democracy and the rule of
law have generally prevailed. The country famously abolished its
military back in the 1940s.

Unfortunately, in recent years, corrupt politicians have
undermined the trust of Ticos* in their government. This has
provided an opportunity for a rising libertarian political movement
and, less fortunately, an opportunity for politicians advocating
socialism.

The
Tico Times
is reporting that a group of prominent
economists have broken from the country’s conservative party to
endorse the Libertarian Movement’s presidential candidate Otto
Guevara in the current election:

A former president of Costa Rica’s Central Bank and previous
PUSC supporter, Jorge Guardia, attacked one of the rising
opposition candidates.

“The country faces an urgent political dilemma,” Guardia said at
a Tuesday press conference. “There exists the risk that José María
Villalta, of the socialist Broad Front Party, could win the
February presidential elections.”

Guardia praised the Libertarian Movement presidential nominee as
having the only economic plan to solve Costa Rica’s woes, such as
its
8.9 percent
unemployment rate.

The Tico Times further reported:

Guevara thanked his new-found supporters and used the
opportunity to slam his top opponents.

“The choice is between three,” Guevara said. “Socialism on one
side, a continuation of impoverishment, or a change to strengthen
the economy.”

In 2010, Guevara received
21 percent of the vote
and his party gained 10 of the 57 seats
in the Chamber of Deputies. Here’s hoping that Ticos make the right
choice on February 2.

*Costa Ricans are called Ticos because they tend to
pronounce dimunitives like momentito as momentico. I had the
pleasure of working as reporter for the Tico Times back in the
1990s.

H/T Kevin Fleming.

from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2013/12/18/the-libertarian-trend-in-costa-rica
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British Jihadists in Syria Claim Hundreds From Britain Have Come To Join Fight Against Assad

U.K.-based
Sky News
has released a video of a brigade of British jihadists
fighting in Syria. According to the interviewed jihadists, private
funds from the U.K. are the largest source of funding for jihadist
fighters, and hundreds of fighters from Britain have traveled to
Syria to fight against Assad.

In the video, the British jihadists claim that they only intend
to fight Assad and have no plans of returning to the U.K. to wage
jihad. They also reject being labeled as terrorists.

Earlier this month, European security officials said that the

number of Europeans
fighting in Syria against Assad was
increasing.

That the British jihadists in the video claim that they have no
interest in waging jihad in the U.K. is unlikely to reassure
British authorities, who have already
arrested

men
who have returned to the U.K. from Syria.

It shouldn’t be surprising if there is increased coverage of the
number of foreigners fighting with Islamic groups within Assad’s
opposition if the Western-backed Free Syrian Army continues to

lose ground

to
the Islamic Front, a group that welcomes foreign fighters
and despite its unpleasant goal (the establishment of an
Islamic state
in Syria) is becoming more important to the

Obama administration’s
pursuit of a diplomatic solution to the
Syrian civil war. According to The Daily Beast’s Jamie
Dettmer
, the Islamic Front has fought with jihadists
before.  

Although American diplomats were willing to talk to the Islamic
Front, it was reported today that the Islamic Front
refused to talk to U.S
. representatives.

To give an idea of the sort of people involved with the Islamic
Front, here are some of the thoughts of the Islamic Front’s
military chief, as reported by
Foreign Policy
:

Zahran Alloush, the Islamic Front’s military chief, has
demonized Syria’s Alawite minority and called for them to be
cleansed from Damascus. As he put it in a recent video: “The
jihadists will wash the filth of the rafida [a slur used to
describe Shia] from Greater Syria, they will wash it forever, if
Allah wills it.”

More from Reason.com on Syria here

from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2013/12/18/british-jihadists-in-syria-claim-hundre
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Ronald Bailey on Ugly Climate Models

Pretty much everyone concerned
with climate change issues agrees that temperatures are rising and
snow is melting. But what is causing the planet to warm
up? The United Nations’ computer climate models are supposed
to give policy makers reliable data regarding future trends in
man-made global warming. But they’ve failed to predict a flat
15-year period. Ronald Bailey argues that their latest report does
not inspire the kind of confidence that could justify a
trillion-dollar climate policy bet.

View this article.

from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2013/12/18/ronald-bailey-on-ugly-climate-models
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The Fed, The Taper & What Happens "When The Kidnapper Wears Prada"

The rich continue to grow richer, and as David McWilliams (of Punk Economics) so eloquently explains in this brief clip, this has pushed the Fed into a corner. As the Federal Reserve gets a new chair and decides what to do next, whether to print $85 billion a month more or not, McWilliams examines the heist that is the new normal financialized economy – who gets all the loot and why today’s kidnappers wear Prada. “Wake up,” he blasts, explaining the uncomfortable reality of what happens when financial kidnappers dress up as loyal patriots and extort money in the name of the common good.

 

“Today’s ransom is the billions of dollars in the form of QE; today’s hostage is the US economy which the kidnappers threaten to kill by a collapse in asset prices if they don’t get more and more free money… and who is paying the ransom… it is the Federal Reserve…

 

The message from Wall Street – the kidnapper – is: if you don’t give us what we want, we will killl the economy.”

 


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/J9lVzA4s6OQ/story01.htm Tyler Durden

The Fed, The Taper & What Happens “When The Kidnapper Wears Prada”

The rich continue to grow richer, and as David McWilliams (of Punk Economics) so eloquently explains in this brief clip, this has pushed the Fed into a corner. As the Federal Reserve gets a new chair and decides what to do next, whether to print $85 billion a month more or not, McWilliams examines the heist that is the new normal financialized economy – who gets all the loot and why today’s kidnappers wear Prada. “Wake up,” he blasts, explaining the uncomfortable reality of what happens when financial kidnappers dress up as loyal patriots and extort money in the name of the common good.

 

“Today’s ransom is the billions of dollars in the form of QE; today’s hostage is the US economy which the kidnappers threaten to kill by a collapse in asset prices if they don’t get more and more free money… and who is paying the ransom… it is the Federal Reserve…

 

The message from Wall Street – the kidnapper – is: if you don’t give us what we want, we will killl the economy.”

 


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/J9lVzA4s6OQ/story01.htm Tyler Durden