Online Notaries?

According to notarize.com, online notarization is allowed in Virginia, Montana, Texas, Nevada, Minnesota, Michigan, Tennessee, Ohio, Indiana, and Vermont—but still not in most states.

I doubt most state legislatures would want to spend time focusing on this right now, but it seems to me that state courts may well have inherent powers to accept documents notarized online (for those filings that require notarization), at least for the duration of the coronavirus epidemic. Has there been any move towards that?

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Online Notaries?

According to notarize.com, online notarization is allowed in Virginia, Montana, Texas, Nevada, Minnesota, Michigan, Tennessee, Ohio, Indiana, and Vermont—but still not in most states.

I doubt most state legislatures would want to spend time focusing on this right now, but it seems to me that state courts may well have inherent powers to accept documents notarized online (for those filings that require notarization), at least for the duration of the coronavirus epidemic. Has there been any move towards that?

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Don’t Expect Millions To Die From Coronavirus, Says Richard Epstein

How many people worldwide will die from COVID-19, the disease caused by a novel coronavirus? Estimates range into the millions, but New York University law professor Richard Epstein says such guesses fail to take into account all the actions that are already taking place to contain and suppress the pandemic. 

In an interview conducted via Skype, Epstein, who is also a fellow at the University of Chicago’s Center for Clinical Medical Ethics and a podcaster and columnist at Ricochet, explains his math, which draws on his work dealing with the AIDS epidemic in the 1980s and ’90s.

He also discusses why the stimulus plans being floated are unlikely to help the economy in the short run but will cause major problems in the long run, why he thinks local and state governments are overreacting by shutting down businesses and schools, and why he expects the crisis to ease up in a few months, as it already has in the Asian countries hit first.

Interview by Nick Gillespie. Intro by Meredith Bragg.

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Don’t Expect Millions To Die From Coronavirus, Says Richard Epstein

How many people worldwide will die from COVID-19, the disease caused by a novel coronavirus? Estimates range into the millions, but New York University law professor Richard Epstein says such guesses fail to take into account all the actions that are already taking place to contain and suppress the pandemic. 

In an interview conducted via Skype, Epstein, who is also a fellow at the University of Chicago’s Center for Clinical Medical Ethics and a podcaster and columnist at Ricochet, explains his math, which draws on his work dealing with the AIDS epidemic in the 1980s and ’90s.

He also discusses why the stimulus plans being floated are unlikely to help the economy in the short run but will cause major problems in the long run, why he thinks local and state governments are overreacting by shutting down businesses and schools, and why he expects the crisis to ease up in a few months, as it already has in the Asian countries hit first.

Interview by Nick Gillespie. Intro by Meredith Bragg.

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Truckers Are Rushing Supplies to Empty Store Shelves During Coronavirus Crisis. Will Regulators Get Out of the Way?

America’s freight industry has been working double-time during this coronavirus crisis, shipping fresh supplies to grocery stores and pharmacies that have been picked bare by shoppers preparing to shelter-in-place for the foreseeable future.

To keep the supply chain unbroken under these extraordinary circumstances, both the federal and state governments have been waiving restrictions on truck drivers and rail operators. That regulatory relief is welcome, but industry groups say it doesn’t go far enough, and that some measures being taken are actively harming their efforts to get essential goods to their destination.

On Saturday, the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) officially declared an emergency, allowing rail operators to request up to 60-day waivers of regulations they can show are getting in the way of their ability to respond to COVID-19.

That move mirrored actions taken by the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), which on Friday took the extraordinary step of waiving maximum hours rules until April 12 for truck drivers carry essential supplies.

The FMCSA will routinely lift these hours of service (HOS) rules for truck drivers carrying relief supplies like water and food to natural disaster-stricken areas. The agency’s Friday nationwide waiver might be unprecedented.

“I don’t know of any other situation where there’s been a nationwide exemption,” says Norita Taylor of the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association (OOIDA). “This is uncharted territory with the kind of emergency that’s been declared.”

Under normal circumstances, cargo-carrying drivers are permitted to be on the clock for 14 hours a day, which includes 11 hours of driving and several mandated breaks. They can also only be on-duty for 70 hours over a consecutive eight-day period before they are required to rest for 34 hours. Drivers carrying passengers can drive only 10 hours each day.

The FMCSA’s emergency waiver permits drivers to bypass these hours restrictions so long as they are exclusively carrying essential supplies like medicine, masks, food needed for “emergency restocking,” and government or medical personal. “Routine” commercial deliveries are still subject to standard HOS rules, as are drivers carrying mixed loads of essential and non-essential goods.

State governments have followed suit by waiving their own HOS regulations, as well as registration and weigh-in requirements.

Industry groups have cheered on these efforts, while also expressing frustration at the ambiguity of the regulatory waivers being issued at all levels of government.

“Trucks are delivering vital supplies to communities now, but confusion and lack of clarity are causing delays and problems,” said American Trucking Associations (ATA) President Chris Spear in a Tuesday letter to President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence asking for clearer and more sweeping regulatory waivers.

For instance, what counts as a “routine,” and therefore unexempted, commercial delivery is undefined in the FMCSA order. “We’re at a loss in terms of interpreting what Friday’s announcement meant,” one trucking executive told FreightWaves on Tuesday. “You can go into a lot of stores right now and see no meat, or dairy products wiped off the shelves as well—so are those considered emergency supplies?”

Taylor says that the FCMSA has held calls with trucking industry members to help clear up the confusion. Then this afternoon, the FCMSA issued an expanded emergency declaration that clarifies shipments of “paper products” (i.e. toilet paper) qualify for regulatory exemptions.

There are still a lot of details that need to be ironed out, says Tom Madrecki, Vice President of Supply Chains at the Consumer Brand Association. “If we take supply chains for granted, it’s easy to discount everything that it touches” when crafting emergency policies, he says.

Madrecki points to the bans on large crowds that local and state governments are imposing. Some do not clarify if employees at manufacturing facilities are exempt, leaving companies wondering if they can continue production to keep up with demand.

Curfews that don’t explicitly exempt delivery drivers are another problem area for the supply chain, says Madrecki, as are the closures of government offices and public facilities. Some states have closed DMVs without granting exemptions or extensions for expiring driver’s licenses, leaving some commercial drivers with expired licenses wondering whether they are allowed to be on the road or not.

Some closures have been actively harmful to truck drivers. On Monday, the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation (PennDOT) ordered the state’s rest stops closed, creating a major problem for drivers transversing the state.

“From an outside perspective, it might make sense,” said Brandon Moree of the Pennsylvania Motor Truck Association. “But obviously those areas are vital for truck drivers who need to have a place to park for their 30-minute break or whether it be for their end of shift time off for the night. Not having those places have been a very difficult challenge.”

After lobbying from truckers, PennDot announced this afternoon that they would open 13 of the state’s 30 rest stops that they identified as being most likely to be used by truckers.

The confusing churn of restrictions and regulatory waivers being issued at all levels of government, while understandable, is creating undue confusion, says Madrecki. Officials need to “establish some uniformity and it needs to happen really quickly. There needs to be that federal leadership,” in deciding what uniform policies should look like, he says.

So far it appears regulators are being responsive to problems or confusion their coronavirus-related dictates have created. That so many waivers are needed to keep goods flowing suggests that we came into this crisis way over-regulated. The fact that even necessary crisis-related restrictions have unintended consequences should humble policymakers as they try to mitigate the virus’s spread.

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Truckers Are Rushing Supplies to Empty Store Shelves During Coronavirus Crisis. Will Regulators Get Out of the Way?

America’s freight industry has been working double-time during this coronavirus crisis, shipping fresh supplies to grocery stores and pharmacies that have been picked bare by shoppers preparing to shelter-in-place for the foreseeable future.

To keep the supply chain unbroken under these extraordinary circumstances, both the federal and state governments have been waiving restrictions on truck drivers and rail operators. That regulatory relief is welcome, but industry groups say it doesn’t go far enough, and that some measures being taken are actively harming their efforts to get essential goods to their destination.

On Saturday, the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) officially declared an emergency, allowing rail operators to request up to 60-day waivers of regulations they can show are getting in the way of their ability to respond to COVID-19.

That move mirrored actions taken by the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), which on Friday took the extraordinary step of waiving maximum hours rules until April 12 for truck drivers carry essential supplies.

The FMCSA will routinely lift these hours of service (HOS) rules for truck drivers carrying relief supplies like water and food to natural disaster-stricken areas. The agency’s Friday nationwide waiver might be unprecedented.

“I don’t know of any other situation where there’s been a nationwide exemption,” says Norita Taylor of the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association (OOIDA). “This is uncharted territory with the kind of emergency that’s been declared.”

Under normal circumstances, cargo-carrying drivers are permitted to be on the clock for 14 hours a day, which includes 11 hours of driving and several mandated breaks. They can also only be on-duty for 70 hours over a consecutive eight-day period before they are required to rest for 34 hours. Drivers carrying passengers can drive only 10 hours each day.

The FMCSA’s emergency waiver permits drivers to bypass these hours restrictions so long as they are exclusively carrying essential supplies like medicine, masks, food needed for “emergency restocking,” and government or medical personal. “Routine” commercial deliveries are still subject to standard HOS rules, as are drivers carrying mixed loads of essential and non-essential goods.

State governments have followed suit by waiving their own HOS regulations, as well as registration and weigh-in requirements.

Industry groups have cheered on these efforts, while also expressing frustration at the ambiguity of the regulatory waivers being issued at all levels of government.

“Trucks are delivering vital supplies to communities now, but confusion and lack of clarity are causing delays and problems,” said American Trucking Associations (ATA) President Chris Spear in a Tuesday letter to President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence asking for clearer and more sweeping regulatory waivers.

For instance, what counts as a “routine,” and therefore unexempted, commercial delivery is undefined in the FMCSA order. “We’re at a loss in terms of interpreting what Friday’s announcement meant,” one trucking executive told FreightWaves on Tuesday. “You can go into a lot of stores right now and see no meat, or dairy products wiped off the shelves as well—so are those considered emergency supplies?”

Taylor says that the FCMSA has held calls with trucking industry members to help clear up the confusion. Then this afternoon, the FCMSA issued an expanded emergency declaration that clarifies shipments of “paper products” (i.e. toilet paper) qualify for regulatory exemptions.

There are still a lot of details that need to be ironed out, says Tom Madrecki, Vice President of Supply Chains at the Consumer Brand Association. “If we take supply chains for granted, it’s easy to discount everything that it touches” when crafting emergency policies, he says.

Madrecki points to the bans on large crowds that local and state governments are imposing. Some do not clarify if employees at manufacturing facilities are exempt, leaving companies wondering if they can continue production to keep up with demand.

Curfews that don’t explicitly exempt delivery drivers are another problem area for the supply chain, says Madrecki, as are the closures of government offices and public facilities. Some states have closed DMVs without granting exemptions or extensions for expiring driver’s licenses, leaving some commercial drivers with expired licenses wondering whether they are allowed to be on the road or not.

Some closures have been actively harmful to truck drivers. On Monday, the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation (PennDOT) ordered the state’s rest stops closed, creating a major problem for drivers transversing the state.

“From an outside perspective, it might make sense,” said Brandon Moree of the Pennsylvania Motor Truck Association. “But obviously those areas are vital for truck drivers who need to have a place to park for their 30-minute break or whether it be for their end of shift time off for the night. Not having those places have been a very difficult challenge.”

After lobbying from truckers, PennDot announced this afternoon that they would open 13 of the state’s 30 rest stops that they identified as being most likely to be used by truckers.

The confusing churn of restrictions and regulatory waivers being issued at all levels of government, while understandable, is creating undue confusion, says Madrecki. Officials need to “establish some uniformity and it needs to happen really quickly. There needs to be that federal leadership,” in deciding what uniform policies should look like, he says.

So far it appears regulators are being responsive to problems or confusion their coronavirus-related dictates have created. That so many waivers are needed to keep goods flowing suggests that we came into this crisis way over-regulated. The fact that even necessary crisis-related restrictions have unintended consequences should humble policymakers as they try to mitigate the virus’s spread.

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Massachusetts Appeals Court Moves to Phone Arguments

From a letter dated last Friday:

To minimize and allay concern about exposure to COVID-19 (Coronavirus), the Appeals Court is hereby ordering that all panel and single justice cases scheduled for oral argument during the remainder of March 2020, including those on March 16, 17, 19, and 23, 2020, will be held by telephone….

The Court plans to record all telephone arguments and make them available on https://ift.tt/2J9X9lj

Sounds like a good plan; I think it would be even better to do it by video, but I take it that the court thought that the technologically simpler solution was the better bet, at least for now. Thanks to Max Bauer for the pointer.

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Massachusetts Appeals Court Moves to Phone Arguments

From a letter dated last Friday:

To minimize and allay concern about exposure to COVID-19 (Coronavirus), the Appeals Court is hereby ordering that all panel and single justice cases scheduled for oral argument during the remainder of March 2020, including those on March 16, 17, 19, and 23, 2020, will be held by telephone….

The Court plans to record all telephone arguments and make them available on https://ift.tt/2J9X9lj

Sounds like a good plan; I think it would be even better to do it by video, but I take it that the court thought that the technologically simpler solution was the better bet, at least for now. Thanks to Max Bauer for the pointer.

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Are We Battling an Unprecedented Pandemic or Panicking at a Computer-Generated Mirage?

A new study generating a lot of buzz this week asks: How bad could an unmitigated COVID-19 pandemic get?

More than 80 percent of Americans would eventually be infected and about 2.2 million would die of the disease, according to the projections in a new modeling study by researchers at Imperial College (I.C.) in the United Kingdom. That implies a case-fatality rate of just over 0.8 percent. In this baseline scenario, in which no public health measures are taken, the death rate would peak at around 56,000 per day sometime around late June.

In order to prevent this dire scenario, the I.C. researchers calculate that the adoption of population-wide social distancing combined with home isolation of cases and school and university closure could cut death rates by more than 90 percent. By population-wide social distancing, the researchers mean that all households reduce their contact outside the household, school, or workplace by 75 percent. To suppress the epidemic and flatten the disease curve, these control measures would have to stay in place until a vaccine is developed and deployed in about 12 to 18 months.

We’re doomed,” my Reason colleague Robby Soave argues in the event 18 months of extreme social distancing is actually what would be required to stop the coronavirus epidemic.

Doom in the financial sense is already haunting millions of small businesses as the social distancing recommendations of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) are implemented. The CDC urges a nationwide halt fo gatherings of more than 50 people for the next eight weeks. President Donald Trump says that gatherings should be no larger than 10 people. In an effort to reduce mass gatherings of people as a way to slow the COVID-19 epidemic, many states have ordered “non-essential” businesses such as bars, restaurants, casinos, museums, and gyms to shut down. In addition, 39 states have ordered K-12 public schools to close. The CDC also recommends that folks diagnosed with the disease and who are mildly ill to stay home.

All of these measures aim to slow down the course of the ongoing coronavirus epidemic. Will they work? Interestingly, the World Health Organization (WHO) just last year did a comprehensive review of both empirical and model simulation studies on how various non-pharmaceutical measures aimed at mitigating the effects of pandemic influenza epidemics. It is somewhat surprising how low the quality of evidence provided by many of the studies cited by the WHO researchers is. Keeping in mind that the WHO report is addressing pandemic flu, not coronavirus, what did the WHO report recommend with respect to social distancing measures?

(1) Voluntary isolation at home of sick individuals with uncomplicated illness is recommended during all influenza epidemics and pandemics, with the exception of the individuals who need to seek medical attention.

(2) Home quarantine of exposed individuals to reduce transmission is not recommended because there is no obvious rationale for this measure, and there would be considerable difficulties in implementing it. (This contradicts that I.C. study’s recommendation.)

(3) Coordinated proactive school closures or class dismissals are suggested during a severe epidemic or pandemic. In such cases, the adverse effects on the community should be fully considered (e.g. family burden and economic considerations), and the timing and duration should be limited to a period that is judged to be optimal.

(4) Workplace measures (e.g. encouraging teleworking from home, staggering shifts, and loosening policies for sick leave and paid leave) are conditionally recommended, with gradation of interventions based on severity. Extreme measures such as workplace closures can be considered in extraordinarily severe pandemics in order to reduce transmission.

(5) Avoiding crowding during moderate and severe epidemics and pandemics is conditionally recommended, with the gradation of strategies linked with severity in order to increase the distance and reduce the density among populations.

One of the modeling studies cited by the WHO report finds, in a high flu transmission scenario, that a 100 percent “school closure causes a small reduction in cumulative attack rates, but a more substantial reduction in peak attack rates (of up to 40%). Such a reduction in peak incidence could mitigate stresses on healthcare systems and absenteeism in the critical workforce.” That is, school closures slow down the epidemic although they do not reduce the overall number of folks who eventually become infected.

It is worth noting that the reproduction number for the pandemic 1918 Spanish flu is estimated to have been around 1.8, that is, each infected person passed the illness on to nearly two other people. The same number for seasonal flu viruses is about 1.3. It’s still early in the coronavirus pandemic, but preliminary estimates suggest that 2.6 is the basic reproduction number for that disease. If that number holds up, the novel coronavirus is considerably more infectious than regular or even pandemic flu, making it that much more difficult to control.

The case for adopting the WHO report’s more extreme social distancing measures strengthens with the projected severity of the pandemic disease. Are we just at the beginning of an extraordinarily severe pandemic or are we being panicked by a computer-generated mirage?

As spring arrives in the Northern Hemisphere, how lucky do you feel?

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Are We Battling an Unprecedented Pandemic or Panicking at a Computer-Generated Mirage?

A new study generating a lot of buzz this week asks: How bad could an unmitigated COVID-19 pandemic get?

More than 80 percent of Americans would eventually be infected and about 2.2 million would die of the disease, according to the projections in a new modeling study by researchers at Imperial College (I.C.) in the United Kingdom. That implies a case-fatality rate of just over 0.8 percent. In this baseline scenario, in which no public health measures are taken, the death rate would peak at around 56,000 per day sometime around late June.

In order to prevent this dire scenario, the I.C. researchers calculate that the adoption of population-wide social distancing combined with home isolation of cases and school and university closure could cut death rates by more than 90 percent. By population-wide social distancing, the researchers mean that all households reduce their contact outside the household, school, or workplace by 75 percent. To suppress the epidemic and flatten the disease curve, these control measures would have to stay in place until a vaccine is developed and deployed in about 12 to 18 months.

We’re doomed,” my Reason colleague Robby Soave argues in the event 18 months of extreme social distancing is actually what would be required to stop the coronavirus epidemic.

Doom in the financial sense is already haunting millions of small businesses as the social distancing recommendations of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) are implemented. The CDC urges a nationwide halt fo gatherings of more than 50 people for the next eight weeks. President Donald Trump says that gatherings should be no larger than 10 people. In an effort to reduce mass gatherings of people as a way to slow the COVID-19 epidemic, many states have ordered “non-essential” businesses such as bars, restaurants, casinos, museums, and gyms to shut down. In addition, 39 states have ordered K-12 public schools to close. The CDC also recommends that folks diagnosed with the disease and who are mildly ill to stay home.

All of these measures aim to slow down the course of the ongoing coronavirus epidemic. Will they work? Interestingly, the World Health Organization (WHO) just last year did a comprehensive review of both empirical and model simulation studies on how various non-pharmaceutical measures aimed at mitigating the effects of pandemic influenza epidemics. It is somewhat surprising how low the quality of evidence provided by many of the studies cited by the WHO researchers is. Keeping in mind that the WHO report is addressing pandemic flu, not coronavirus, what did the WHO report recommend with respect to social distancing measures?

(1) Voluntary isolation at home of sick individuals with uncomplicated illness is recommended during all influenza epidemics and pandemics, with the exception of the individuals who need to seek medical attention.

(2) Home quarantine of exposed individuals to reduce transmission is not recommended because there is no obvious rationale for this measure, and there would be considerable difficulties in implementing it. (This contradicts that I.C. study’s recommendation.)

(3) Coordinated proactive school closures or class dismissals are suggested during a severe epidemic or pandemic. In such cases, the adverse effects on the community should be fully considered (e.g. family burden and economic considerations), and the timing and duration should be limited to a period that is judged to be optimal.

(4) Workplace measures (e.g. encouraging teleworking from home, staggering shifts, and loosening policies for sick leave and paid leave) are conditionally recommended, with gradation of interventions based on severity. Extreme measures such as workplace closures can be considered in extraordinarily severe pandemics in order to reduce transmission.

(5) Avoiding crowding during moderate and severe epidemics and pandemics is conditionally recommended, with the gradation of strategies linked with severity in order to increase the distance and reduce the density among populations.

One of the modeling studies cited by the WHO report finds, in a high flu transmission scenario, that a 100 percent “school closure causes a small reduction in cumulative attack rates, but a more substantial reduction in peak attack rates (of up to 40%). Such a reduction in peak incidence could mitigate stresses on healthcare systems and absenteeism in the critical workforce.” That is, school closures slow down the epidemic although they do not reduce the overall number of folks who eventually become infected.

It is worth noting that the reproduction number for the pandemic 1918 Spanish flu is estimated to have been around 1.8, that is, each infected person passed the illness on to nearly two other people. The same number for seasonal flu viruses is about 1.3. It’s still early in the coronavirus pandemic, but preliminary estimates suggest that 2.6 is the basic reproduction number for that disease. If that number holds up, the novel coronavirus is considerably more infectious than regular or even pandemic flu, making it that much more difficult to control.

The case for adopting the WHO report’s more extreme social distancing measures strengthens with the projected severity of the pandemic disease. Are we just at the beginning of an extraordinarily severe pandemic or are we being panicked by a computer-generated mirage?

As spring arrives in the Northern Hemisphere, how lucky do you feel?

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