“America Is Respected Again” – Plunge Protection Team Arrives, Ramps Nasdaq Green

PPT dip-buyers versus everyone-else rip-sellers…

Nasdaq has been monkey-hammered straight up – after plunging 1.9% – back into the green…

Futures show the action better…

And as stocks go green, Trump tweets so ironically…

The question is – what happens next?

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Netanyahu Dissolves Israeli Parliament, Calls For New Elections In Risky Political Gambit

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has somehow retained his popularity with the Israeli electorate despite the fact that he and his wife Sarah Netanyahu (who was indicted back in June) have been implicated in several corruption and bribery scandals. If prosecutors accept the advice of Israeli police, the prime minister could face criminal charges in the new year.

But none of this has apparently deterred Netanyahu from a risky political gambit: On Monday, Netanyahu and the leaders of Israel’s coalition government formally dissolved the Knesset (Israel’s parliament) and hold early elections as soon as April in order to try and win a broader majority that will allow them to pass a controversial military conscription reform bill that has alienated some far-right members of Netanyahu’s coalition. The Knesset is expected to approve the dissolution during a Wednesday vote.

According to the Washington Post, which cited local media reports, the election will likely take place on April 9. During the vote, Netanyahu is hoping to expand his coalition’s razor-thin one-vote majority in the legislative body (various member parties control 61 of 120 votes), which would (in theory) allow him to pass a bill aimed at making it easier to draft ultra-orthodox Israeli’s into the Israeli Defense Force, which has been struggling in recent years with a shortage of man power.

Net

As it stands, all Israelis must serve at least two years in the IDF. But most ultra-othodox jews who study in the country’s Yeshivas have been exempted from this rule. The new law, if passed, would mandate service from all ultra-orthodox men except the very best scholars.

Netanyahu publicized his decision in a tweet:

Likud’s governing coalition has been struggling since the Nov. 14 resignation of Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman, who stepped down over the government’s handling of demonstrations  along the border between Israeli territory and the Gaza Strip.

Making the situation worse for Likud, after Liberman’s resignation, ultranationalist Education Minister Naftali Bennett threatened to withdraw his Jewish Home party from the governing coalition if Netanyahu didn’t allow him to take over defense duties. Instead, Netanyahu said he was determined to add the defense minister post to his responsibilities (the prime minister also occupies the roles of foreign minister, immigration minister and health minister), forcing Naftali to backtrack.

But the final straw that lead to the vote appeared to be an earlier announcement from opposition leader Yair Lapid, leader of the centrist Yesh Atid party, who said his party would not support the conscription reform bill.

Drafting a law that all of Netanyahu’s coalition members would support has proven impossible, so without a stronger majority, or a popular mandate to force more support from the opposition, the bill would have little chance of passing. Centrist critics have accused Netanyahu of not going far enough with the bill and “surrendering to the orthodox”, while the orthodox oppose all efforts to extend conscription to their community.

Netanyahu remains very popular in Israel, and has vowed to stay on and fight any criminal charges that might arise. According to Reuters, recent polls show he has a good chance of winning the votes he needs to strengthen his position. But if he falters, he could face a challenge from the center as well as from his right. No one in the Likud Party has said they would challenge Netanyahu, and he’s expected to retain his position as prime minister barring a major upset.

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Jim Kunstler On Wokesterdom, The PPT, & “The Sorcerer’s Apprentice Scenario”

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

And this solemn night a great stillness falls upon the land as the Leviathan of Washington is sent to its room to get its mind straight, and the USA gets on with collapse in earnest. There will be no visions of sugarplums for the Deep Staters as the government enters its induced coma, only premonitions of anarchy and insolvency, and perhaps some dim nostalgia for that golden age when things seemed to work in America. On the plus side of things, this may be the last year of Christmas shaming.  Even the Wokesters of Wokesterdom appear weary and bored with Wokesterism ­— isn’t that a blessing?

I have a theory for what is behind the decline and fall of this once proud and capable country: nobody answers the phone. This one change in consensual social behavior has enabled virtually everyone in authority to evade responsibility for what they do. Corporations especially don’t want to be bothered by their pain-in-the-ass customers with their tedious complaints and demands. Every time I see the smirking face of that quasi-autistic ninny, Bill Gates, I have to wonder why he doesn’t apply a tiny fraction of his gargantuan fortune to hire a few actual humans to answer the phone at Microsoft instead of that insulting tele-robot. I suppose it would hurt his feelings to learn how badly his own products work, especially just after you purchase MS Office — as I had to do last week with the 2019 upgrade — and flounder your way through the maze of protocols to get the damn thing up-and-running.

Forgive the excursion into personal reminiscence, but I remember the time some decades back when I was a 26-year-old reporter on what was then called a newspaper (as opposed to a bulletin of moral instruction from Wokesterdom). I could call just about any company in the land saying I was a reporter for ________ and get the Chief Executive on the phone in a New York minute. (It ain’t bragging if it’s true.) This was the case, of course, for thousands of other reporters on hundreds of newspapers in America. If a story was especially dicey, you could work your way up the whole C-suite food chain collecting all kinds of contradictory, ass-covering information until you got to the Big Orca at the top, and lever his mouth open with what you learned from his underlings. It worked when dealing with the government too. You could lay a line of talk on some receptionist — say, invoking the term “grand jury” ­— and get her boss on the phone pronto. I think it went quite a ways to keeping the people who run things honest.

Woodward and Bernstein could never investigate a case like Watergate under today’s conditions. Deep Throat wouldn’t even answer his phone. The two reporters would find themselves so far up an automated answering tree that they would disappear across an event horizon and find themselves in an alternative universe where Richard Nixon was a relief pitcher for the Montreal Expos and Fred Rogers sat in the Oval Office… and there would be no story to tell. These days, apparently, the chairman of the House Judiciary Committee can’t even get a hold of Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein. They left a message on his phone a few months ago and he hasn’t even deigned to send a text back.

This national telephone quandary is a prime example of the diminishing returns of technology. We’ve spent thirty-odd years and countless billions of dollars computerizing all the phone systems in this country, and then overlaid so many bells and whistles on top of it, and the net effect is that it only made communication worse. Combine that with one of my cardinal rules of human social behavior — that you can’t overstate people’s ability to misunderstand each other — and you might apprehend the darkness we’ve entered.

We’re currently being treated to another playing-out of these diminishing returns of technology in a related realm of communication: financial markets. Go ahead and put algo robots in charge of the system and see how things work out. Today we’re informed in The New York Bulletin of Wokesterdomthat “the President’s Working Group” (also known as the Plunge Protection Team) is convening to assess the ongoing damage to stock indexes. The PPT at least is composed of humans. But are the trading algos a fair match for them? I doubt it.

I suspect the PPT and the rest of America will discover we’ve blundered into the Sorcerer’s Apprentice scenario, a techno-magical, runaway, recursive feedback-loop fiasco. How odd, though, that this is all happening during the holiest week of the year.

Sleep in heavenly peace tonight, everybody, as Santa makes his way across the rooftops and homeless tarps of our Republic. Your call is important to us!

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Less Than 1% From A Bear Market

The longest bull market in history – as measured by the E-mini future – is now less than 1% from ending, with the drawdown from the Sept 20 highs now just above 19%. 

Expect more tweets from the administration once the S&P officially drops 20%, and more speculation that Powell’s tenure is about to end.

 

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Stocks & Dollar Plunge As Bank Credit Risk & Bullion Prices Spike

We’re gonna need another call to those banks…

It seems Mnuchin’s confidence-inspiring calls with the CEOs over “liquidity” has had exactly the opposite effect he hoped for…

Bank stocks are getting slammed…

And Bank credit risk is surging…

 

Stocks are accelerating their losses after the cash open…

 

And confidence in the USDollar is disappearing…

 

And bonds and bullion are rallying on a safe haven bid…

Maybe it’s time for Mnuchin to put his wife down and head back to the States…

 

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Kyle Bass Was Right: The Administration Did Speak To The Nation About The Market… And It Only Made Things Worse

On Friday, in a since-deleted tweet, Heyman Capital’s Kyle Bass made a correct prediction, saying that “the administration will likely speak to the nation about stock market over the weekend.”

Unfortunately for bulls, said intervention by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, in which he called the heads of the 6 biggest banks (JP Morgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo and Citigroup) from his Cabo vacation, to discuss recent market turmoil and assure liquidity conditions, and noting that he would convene the President’s Working Group on financial markets – a panel created in the aftermath of the Crash of 1987 – also known as the Plunge Protection Team, yielded the opposite outcome of that desired, with the S&P sliding further on Monday and now less than 2% away from a bear market.

Commenting to Bloomberg, Michael O’Rourke, JonesTrading’s chief market strategist said “nothing says don’t panic like saying ‘I’m calling the plunge protection team tomorrow.’ I honestly think that’s the type of event that’s going to startle markets and create more panic and fear when it’s meant to create confidence.”

Others were just as harsh: “We saw a lot of sell-offs in 2011, 2015-2016, and I don’t remember the presidents trying to convene the bank heads,” said Michael Antonelli, equity sales trader at Robert W. Baird. “I’m worried the White House is going to make a mistake by exacerbating the market concern. Trump needs a political win, a PR that looks like he’s on top of the situation, and that’s what the weekend strikes me as.”

“Personally I take it as a huge negative,” said Titus Wealth Management managing director Scot Lance. “He’s calling bank CEOs asking about their liquidity. That doesn’t make me feel all warm and fuzzy. The bottom line is there’s a crisis going on right now and it was born I believe as a political crisis exclusively last February in a trade war. That’s turned into an economic crisis.”

Not everyone was pessimistic, however. “To me as a trader, that’s ruled out some tail risk,” said Ilya Feygin, senior strategist at WallachBeth Capital. “That’s better than nothing. They’re not going to say that banks are fine this week and announce that the banks are bust next week. Whether he’ll be able to appease the markets, we don’t know, but it’s very likely that the banks will rally tomorrow. What else can you do in a situation like this? What he did was creative and clever.”

Finally, keep in mind the conclusion of Bass’ tweet: “Despite their differences over the wall, budget, and international relations, [the administration] will do the right things for investors who have lost a large percentage of savings this year.”

So far his forecast is only half correct.

 

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In Defense Of Powell’s Restoration Of Price Discovery

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Relying on fakery and addictive stimulus is the acme of fragility and vulnerability.

Let’s start with a chart of the S&P 500:

Having become addicted to the Federal Reserve’s nearly free money for financiers and the infamous Fed Put, stock market players are now weeping and thrashing about in the agony of withdrawal as Fed chair Jay Powell has instituted a cold-turkey withdrawal from the financial stimulus of the Bernanke-Yellen days.

Let’s be clear: the policies of nearly free money for financiers (QE) and the Fed Put were unmitigated disasters, as they distorted financial markets so severely that the markets’ pricing mechanisms have been crippled.

The policies of the Bernanke-Yellen Fed also directly exacerbated wealth-income inequality, as the wealth effect of rising equity valuations– the supposed goal of monetary stimulus– only benefited the top 5%, and most of the gains flowed to the top 0.1%.

Stripped of addictive stimulus and the backstop of the Bernanke-Yellen Fed Put, the markets are experiencing the pain of withdrawal and the traumatic return of price discovery. Although we’re taught that capital has financial, intellectual and social forms, trust is also a form of capital, and thanks to the gross distortions and perverse incentives of the Bernanke-Yellen Fed, nobody trusts the market’s price discovery mechanisms any more.

This is why market participants are so skittish and so easily panicked: they have no way of knowing what market valuations will be once the markets get through cold-turkey withdrawal from Fed smack and start discovering price via supply, demand, risk, cost of credit, discounting future cash flows, etc.–all the market mechanisms of transparent price discovery.

In effect, the Bernanke-Yellen Fed institutionalized the destruction of trust in U.S. markets in the pursuit of continued gains in equity valuations. Nobody trusted markets’ price discovery, but they trusted the Fed to bail out the stock market should any latent price discovery take markets lower.

Everybody knew it was fake, but it was too profitable not to drink the Kool-Aid. Just as the punter high on cocaine feels he can conquer the world while onlookers marvel at his disconnect from reality, the Bernanke-Yellen Fed offered up addictive stimulus that generated an illusion of stability and an illusion of price discovery, illusions no sober participant believed.

If the punter on coke starts handing out $100 bills, why not take some? That’s the Bernanke-Yellen Fed in a nutshell.

Addicts always think they can quit any time they choose. Stock market players reckoned they could discern when the Fed drug would wear off or trigger mass overdoses, and they’d exit the market with their gains well before things got out of hand. But the exit is small and the venue is cavernous and crowded: easier said than done.

Powell is trying to restore trust in the market by stripping it of the Bernanke-Yellen Fed Put. After a decade of addiction to Fed stimulus, it’s tough to surrender the delusional convictions of the addict and start engaging the world as it is, which in financial markets mean transparent price discovery of all things, including risk and credit.

If we can dare to be honest for a moment, we’d confess that everybody knew the markets of the past decade were fake. When people can no longer tell the difference between fakes and the real deal, fraud is incentivized as trust is lost.

We are circling the financial Black Hole: reliance on fakery and the destruction of trust in markets have systemic consequences. We should be grateful to Jay Powell and his Board of Governors for refusing to steer the U.S. financial system and economy into the Black Hole from which there is no return.

Relying on fakery and addictive stimulus is the acme of fragility and vulnerability. If we want an anti-fragile, adaptive and durable financial system and economy, we need to start dealing with reality, and the first step is to restore markets’ price discovery mechanisms, regardless of the short-term pain.

Short-term pain, long-term gain.

*  *  *

My new book Pathfinding our Destiny: Preventing the Final Fall of Our Democratic Republic is discounted ($5.95 ebook, $10.95 print): Read the first section for free in PDF format. My new mystery The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake is a ridiculously affordable $1.29 (Kindle) or $8.95 (print); read the first chapters for free (PDF). My book Money and Work Unchained is now $6.95 for the Kindle ebook and $15 for the print edition. Read the first section for free in PDF format. If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $10/month patron of my work via patreon.com.

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Tesla Drops After Committing To Paying Missed Tax Credits Hours After Slashing China Prices Again

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has gone on record stating that the company is going to reimburse customers if delivery delays wind up being the cause of them missing out on a tax credit that will be cut in half after the end of 2018. Tax credits for electric vehicles are available on the first 200,000 vehicles sold by any given automaker. After that, the credit is cut in half every six months until it phases out completely. Earlier this year, Tesla told its customers that orders placed by October 15th would be eligible for the full credit of $7500 and that customers would also receive their cars by the end of the year.

On January 1, this tax credit is cut in half to $3750.

As crunch time approaches, customers who have already ordered vehicles and have been waiting on them to be delivered have started to complain on social media – not only about delays in receiving their vehicles, but also in a lack of communication from the company.

And in the “management by Twitter” style that Elon Musk has reportedly employed – focusing on and micromanaging one problem at a time, instead of trying to arrive at broader scale solutions – Musk proclaimed to one customer that Tesla would “cover the tax credit difference” if Tesla had committed to delivery and the customer had made “good faith” efforts to get their car before 2019.

Recall, in a recent expose, one former SolarCity employee stated: 

“We called it management by Twitter. Some customer would tweet some random complaint, and then we would be ordered to drop everything and spend a week on some problem affecting one loudmouth in Pasadena, rather than all the work we’re supposed to do to support the thousands of customers who didn’t tweet that day.”

Musk also said on Twitter this weekend that orders for the mid-range Model 3 should all be delivered by the end of the year.

This news comes after Tesla has once again cut prices on its Model 3 in China. The latest discount – of up to 7.6% – may be an indication that demand in China is still lagging expectations. This was the third time in the last two months that Tesla has changed its prices in China. Back in November, the company cut the prices of its Model X and Model S vehicles by 12% and 26%, respectively. Tesla claimed at the time that it was “absorbing a significant part of the tariff to help make cars more affordable for customers in China”.

Given the fact that Tesla is now supposedly in a good enough financial position to not only absorb the cost of tariffs, but also to make up the difference in customers’ tax credits, we’re sure it’s just going to be a happy and healthy runway of nonstop profitability and cash generation from this point forward.

Not surprisingly, the market was less than excited by the margin-compressing news, pushing TSLA stock over 2% lower, even though it has a way to go before catching down to the growing skepticism exhibited by Tesla bondholders.

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China Cutting Tariffs On 700 Items Amid Push To Boost Imports By $30 Trillion

As part of China’s efforts to open its economy – something its leaders have been touting at least since President Xi’s keynote speech at the 2017 World Economic Forum – Xi revealed on Monday a detailed breakdown of what will be the third round of tariff reductions this year, measures that were teased by President Xi during a speech nearly two months ago.

The plans to spend more on foreign goods are part of China’s plan to import an additional $30 trillion over the next 15 years as the world’s second-largest economy continues its transition from an industrial powerhouse to a service-focused economy, according to Bloomberg.

In addition to the $30 trillion in goods (which is higher than the $24 trillion previously promised by Xi), China is also hoping to increase services imports by $10 trillion during the same period. The measures come as China is weighing whether to abandon its “Made in China 2025” initiative and speed up the liberalization of its economy and its openness to foreign competition as a means of reducing wasteful state-directed spending that has heavily contributed to the massive pile of bad debt swirling around China’s corporate sector.

China

The tariffs will have the added bonus of cutting costs for Chinese consumers at a time when a dramatically weaker yuan is expected to stoke inflation. The announcement follows a raft of disappointing economic data released earlier this month raised fears of a global recession (and sent stocks around the world tumbling lower).

Before Trump takes credit for the cuts as another victory in his trade war with China, Bloomberg pointed out that Xi’s latest comments “don’t move the needle very far on trade policy”. China has already cut tariffs this year (case in point: the recent reductions in auto tariffs) and has repeatedly said it’s planning more cuts.

Bar

The lowered tariffs, which will impact some 700 goods, will take effect on Jan. 1. The “temporary” rates can be changed at will and also can be lower than the current most-favored nations levels, though these tariffs will also apply to goods imported from all WTO members. 

Here’s a breakdown of the tariff highlights courtesy of Bloomberg.

  • With tariffs on U.S. soybeans stopping a key source of edible meal (often used for animal feed), China will implement zero tariffs on imports of a variety of meals including sunflower and canola.
  • Some materials for pharmaceutical manufacturing will also be subject to zero tariffs, and taxes on high-tech imports will be set “relatively low,” including at 1 percent for a type of generator for aircraft, and 5 percent for a type of welding robots used in car assembly lines.
  • The ministry said MFN tariffs will be further cut for a wide-range of information technology imports starting from July 1, 2019, including for medical diagnosis machines, speakers and printers, according to a separate table on its website.
  • The nation will also scrap export tariffs on 94 items of products starting from the new year, including fertilizers, iron ore, coal tar, and wood pulp. Export tariffs on these goods are as high as 40 percent currently.
  • Imports from nations that have reached a trade pact with China will be levied at the rates agreed by both sides. China’s bilateral deals with New Zealand, Peru, Costa Rica, Switzerland, Iceland, South Korea, Australia, Georgia already included promises to further lower tariffs in 2019, as does the Asia-Pacific Trade Agreement.
  • Imports from Hong Kong, Macau will also enjoy lower taxes.

China’s stated plans to liberalize its economy could help improve the chances for an enduring trade pact with the US, as one of Trump’s central demands is that the Communist Party take steps to narrow China’s trade surplus with the US. Then again, China has a long and storied history of promising to open up its markets – a process which created holes in its storied captial account firewall; whether it actually follows up on them has been a different matter entirely.

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From Goldilocks To Humpty-Dumpty Markets

Authored by Constantin Gurdgiev via TrueEconomics blog,

I am covering the recent volatility and uncertainty in the financial markets for the Sunday Business Post

2018 has been a tough year for investors. Based on the data compiled by the Deutsche Bank AG research team, as of November 2018, 65.7 percent of all globally-traded assets were posting annual losses in gross (non-risk adjusted) terms. This marks 2018 as the third worst year on record since 1901, after 1920 (67.6 percent) and 1994 (67.2 percent), as Chart 1 below illustrates. Adjusting Deutsche Bank’s data for the last thirty days, by mid-December 2018, 66.3 percent of all assets traded in the markets are now in the red on the annual returns basis.

CHART 1: Percentage of Assets with Negative Total Returns in Local Currency

Source: Deutsche Bank AG

Note: The estimates are based on a varying number of assets, with 30 assets included in 1901, rising to 70 assets in 2018

Of the 24 major asset classes across the Advanced Economies and Emerging Markets, only three, the U.S. Treasury Bills (+19.5% YTD through November 15), the U.S. Leveraged Loans (+7.45%), and the U.S. Dollar (+0.78%) offer positive risk-adjusted returns, based on the data from Bloomberg. S&P 500 equities are effectively unchanged on 2017. Twenty other asset classes are in the red, as shown in the second chart below, victims of either negative gross returns, high degree of volatility in prices (high risk), or both.

CHART 2: Risk-Adjusted Returns, YTD through mid-December 2018, percent

Source: Data from Bloomberg, TradingView, and author own calculations

Note: Risk-adjusted returns take into account volatility in prices. IG = Investment Grade, HY = High Yield, EM = Emerging Markets

The causes of this abysmal performance are both structural and cyclical.

Cyclical Worries

The cyclical side of the markets is easier to deal with. Here, concerns are that the U.S., European and global economies have entered the last leg of the current expansion cycle that the world economy has enjoyed since 2009 (the U.S. since 2010, and the Eurozone since 2014). Although the latest forecasts from the likes of the IMF and the World Bank indicate only a gradual slowdown in the economic activity across the world in 2019-2023, majority of the private sector analysts are expecting a U.S. recession in the first half of 2020, following a slowdown in growth in 2019. For the Euro area, many analysts are forecasting a recession as early as late-2019.

The key cyclical driver for these expectations is tightening of monetary policies that sustained the recovery post-Global Financial Crisis and the Great Recession. And the main forward-looking indicators for cyclical pressures to be watched by investors is the U.S. Treasury yield curve and the 10-year yield and the money velocity.

The yield curve is currently at a risk of inverting (a situation when the long-term interest rates fall below short-term interest rates). The 10-year yields are trading at below 3 percent marker – a sign of the financial markets losing optimism over the sustainability of the U.S. growth rates. Money velocity is falling across the Advanced Economies – a dynamic only partially accounted for by the more recent monetary policies.

CHART 3: 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate, January 2011-present, percent

Source: FRED database, Federal reserve bank of St. Louis.

Structural Pains

While cyclical pressures can be treated as priceable risks, investors’ concerns over structural problems in the global economy are harder to assess and hedge.

The key concerns so far have been the extreme uncertainty and ambiguity surrounding the impact of the U.S. Presidential Administration policies on trade, geopolitical risks, and fiscal expansionism. Compounding factor has been a broader rise in political opportunism and the accompanying decline in the liberal post-Cold War world order.

The U.S. Federal deficit have ballooned to USD780 billion in the fiscal 2018, the highest since 2012. It is now on schedule to exceed USD1 trillion this year. Across the Atlantic, since mid-2018, a new factor has been adding to growing global uncertainty: the structural weaknesses in the Euro area financial services sector (primarily in the German, Italian and French banking sectors), and the deterioration in fiscal positions in Italy (since Summer 2018) and France (following November-December events). The European Central Bank’s pivot toward unwinding excessively accommodating monetary policies of the recent past, signaled in Summer 2018, and re-confirmed in December, is adding volatility to structural worries amongst the investors.

Other long-term worries that are playing out in the investment markets relate to the ongoing investors’ unease about the nature of economic expansion during 2010-2018 period. As evident in longer term financial markets dynamics, the current growth cycle has been dominated by one driver: loose monetary policies of quantitative easing. This driver fuelled unprecedented bubbles across a range of financial assets, from real estate to equities, from corporate debt to Government bonds, as noted earlier.

However, the same driver also weakened corporate balance sheets in Europe and the U.S. As the result, key corporate risk metrics, such as the degree of total leverage, the cyclically-adjusted price to earnings ratios, and the ratio of credit growth to value added growth in the private economy have been flashing red for a good part of two decades. Not surprisingly, U.S. velocity of money has been on a continuous downward trend from 1998, with Eurozone velocity falling since 2007. Year on year monetary base in China, Euro Area, Japan and United States grew at 2.8 percent in October 2018, second lowest reading since January 2016, according to the data from Yardeni Research.

Meanwhile, monetary, fiscal and economic policies of the first two decades of this century have failed to support to the upside both the labour and technological capital productivity growth. In other words, the much-feared spectre of the broad secular stagnation (the hypothesis that long-term changes in both demand and supply factors are leading to a structural long-term slowdown in global economic growth) remains a serious concern for investors. The key leading indicator that investors should be watching with respect to this risk is the aggregate rate of investment growth in non-financial private sector, net of M&As and shares repurchases – the rate that virtually collapsed in post-2008 period and have not recovered to its 1990s levels since.

The second half of 2018 has been the antithesis to the so-called ‘Goldolocks markets’ of 2014-2017, when all investment asset classes across the Advanced Economies were rising in valuations. At the end of 3Q 2018, U.S. stock markets valuations relative to GDP have topped the levels previously seen only in 1929 and 2000. Since the start of October, however, we have entered a harmonised ‘Humpty-Dumpty market’, characterised by spiking volatility, rising uncertainty surrounding the key drivers of markets dynamics. Adding to this high degree of coupling across various asset classes, the recent developments in global markets suggest a more structural rebalancing in investors’ attitudes to risk that is likely to persist into 2019.

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