Mueller Might Be Barred From Publishing Trump-Russia Report Thanks To Obscure Court Case

A six-decade old murder case working its way through a Washington D.C. Court of Appeals may set a precedent that would prevent special counsel Robert Mueller from publishing any information from stemming from the Trump-Russia investigation, reports Politico

Columbia University professor Jesus Galindez disappeared in 1956, and was believed to be possibly kidnapped to the Dominican Republic and murdered. His body was never found. The case inspired a 2003 film starring Harvey Keitel, “The Galindez File.” 

Attorney and author Stuart McKeever has been pursuing the case, and has asked the D.C. court to release secret testimony given to a DC-based grand jury, however the Department of Justice (DOJ) has argued that judges don’t have “inherent authority” to release said information unless Congress approves.

As Politico‘s Josh Gerstein notes, McKeever’s success or failure to obtain the documents may have far reaching implications for other investigations – including Mueller’s probe of President Trump and those in his orbit

 

[I]f a Washington appeals court set to hear the murder-related case next month sides with the Justice Department and rules that judges don’t have the freedom to release grand jury information that is usually kept secret, it could throw a monkey wrench into any plans Mueller has to issue a public report on his probe’s findings, lawyers following the issue said.

And it might even keep the special counsel from sending a report to Congress, shaking Democrats’ hopes that such a document could provide the impetus for impeachment proceedings against the president. –Politico

This means of course that if Mueller can’t nail Trump for anything outside of porn-star payoffs and parking tickets, he will conveniently avoid an embarrassing public disclosure after more than two years of DOJ investigation. On the other hand, if Trump is found guilty of being a Putin-puppet, it would similarly hinder public disclosure.

“It is a sleeper case,” says Harvard Law professor Alex Whiting. “If the D.C. Circuit were to accept the Department of Justice’s arguments…that would have potentially enormous implications for the future of the information from the Mueller investigation. That could close out a path by which that information becomes public.

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Colas: Here’s The Reason Why Stocks Surged To Record Highs After Powell’s Talk

Submitted by Nicholas Colas of DataTrek Research

Fed Chair Jay Powell spent 5 paragraphs of his Jackson Hole speech on Friday explaining why Alan Greenspan was right to keep rates low from 1995 to 1999. If you want to know why US stocks rallied to fresh highs on his talk, that’s pretty much all you need to know. But if you want the deep dive into the whole conference we have a fuller summary of Powell’s talk below, along with highlights from all the other presentations.

Powell: The Fault Lies In Our Stars

Equity markets like the cut of Fed Chair Powell’s jib, at least as far as that nautical reference relates to his Friday morning comments at the central bank’s annual Jackson Hole conference. The S&P 500 finally broke to a new high and the NASDAQ similarly printed a new high water mark. Also, emerging market ETFs (like EEM) rebounded 1.9% on Friday pointing to some spillover potential at the start of Sunday night’s overseas trade.

Another maritime analogy was, in fact, at the core of Powell’s speech and its message was clearly equity-friendly. He compared long run macro economic concepts about unemployment (called “u star” by econo-wonks), interest rates (“r star”) and inflation (“pi star”) to the physical stars once used for celestial navigation at sea. His summary about this:

“Navigating by the stars can sound straightforward. Guiding policy by the stars in practice, however, has been quite challenging of late because our best assessments of the location of the stars have been changing significantly.”

The Fed Chair then shifted to dry land, and a concept investors use every day: risk management. Once you accept that your perceptions of reality may be wrong (the stars aren’t where you think they are), you build more uncertainty into your decision-making. Powell took 5 paragraphs of his talk to praise former Chair Greenspan’s do-nothing stance on rates in the mid-late 1990s as an example of sound intellectual risk management. Inflation was waning at the time, although many economists thought it would return with a vengeance. Greenspan, to Powell’s thinking, was wise to watch and wait.

If you want to pinpoint the one section of Powell’s talk that buoyed US stocks on Friday, his lauding of Greenspan’s inadvertent fueling of the late 1990s dot com bubble clearly qualifies. Yes, he did highlight that the past two recessions (2000 and 2008) saw “destabilizing excesses” and appeared “mainly in financial markets rather than inflation”. But there is no mention in his talk that current financial market conditions show any similar excess. This will either prove to be Powell’s first sin of omission as Chair or a great market call. Only time will tell.

* * *

While the rest of last week’s Jackson Hole conference will probably get little attention, the topics presented do outline a worldview sympathetic to a structurally go-slow Powell Fed. Here are brief summaries of each talk:

Increasing Differences Between Firms; Market Power and the Macro-economy

  • There is rising industry concentration across many major industrial sectors in the US and EU.
  • Larger firms are growing more profitable than smaller peers but the rewards are not flowing through to workers.
  • The root cause may be an increasingly “winner take most/all” dynamic due to globalization/new technologies, rather than regulatory/policy failures.

Understanding Weak Capital Investment: The Role of Market Concentration and Intangibles

  • Capital investment is not weak, as commonly thought. Rather, firms are investing in intangible assets like R&D, software and business processes.
  • These intangible assets can provide powerful competitive advantage and even enable a rise in industry concentration.

Panel on Changing Market Structure and Implications for Monetary Policy

  • There is very little academic research on how monetary policy makers should consider industry concentration in setting interest rates.
  • FinTech, a relatively new entrant in the market for financial services, may actually exacerbate wealth inequality by using Big Data algorithms to prey on less-educated consumers.

Reflections on Dwindling Worker Bargaining Power and Monetary Policy

  • Lunch presentation by Alan Krueger (Princeton and NBER). US wages are not growing as quickly as corporate profits due to structural factors, ranging from lower levels of unionization to the increasing use of anticompetitive practices on the part of employers.

More Amazon Effects: Online Competition and Price Behaviors

  • The growth of Amazon over the last decade has pulled US consumer prices lower in much the same way as Walmart’s growth in the 1980s/1990s reduced structural inflation.
  • Because Amazon’s prices are easily visible, other retailers quickly follow any changes there (usually lower) in pricing across a wide variety of goods. This give Amazon more influence in price-setting than its market position would imply.
  • Since Amazon charges one price nationally, this limits retailers’ ability to differentiate prices by region.

Competition, Stability and Efficiency in Financial Markets

  • Financial system regulation typically focused on cross-cycle stability (i.e. making sure banks have enough capital to withstand a severe recession without the need for government bailouts).
  • Policymakers need to consider the role of technology as financial services industry “disruptor” and create a regulatory framework to ensure the system remains stable.

Overview Panel (no unifying topic)

  • The current global debate over trade/tariffs could be damaging to the global economy.
  • The current boom in technological disruption is analogous to the last big macro trend of globalization. Policymakers need to explain the benefits of this shift to their citizens and address those left behind.
  • Among the final lines from the final speaker at Jackson Hole this year: “Digital technologies are disrupting central banking along with everything else.”

Summing up: Jackson Hole 2018 is the year the Federal Reserve accepted that the world really is different from 10 or 20 years ago, thanks to everything from technology to a changing political landscape. How much that realization dulls their appetite for aggressive monetary policy is now as important a question as where CPI or inflation goes in the next few years.

For links to all the papers presented and their authors (omitted from our summaries due to length constraints, click here: https://www.kansascityfed.org/publications/research/escp/symposiums/escp-2018

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GOP Prepares For “Coming Hell” If Democrats Take House In Midterms

While Congressional Republicans are putting on a good face in public going into the November midterms, they are privately panicking over the House flipping to the Democrats this November – a possibility which Compass Pointe analyst Isaac Boltansky places at 70%

Axios has obtained a spreadsheet circulating through Republican circles “on and off Capitol Hill – including at least one leadership office,” which catalogs a list of probes they expect Democrats to launch if they regain control of the House. 

The spreadsheet includes requests for administration officials to be grilled by committee staff, requests for hearings to obtain sworn testimony, efforts to seize communications about controversial policies and personnel decisions, and subpoena threats. –Axios

  • President Trump’s tax returns
  • Trump family businesses — and whether they comply with the Constitution’s emoluments clause, including the Chinese trademark grant to the Trump Organization
  • Trump’s dealings with Russia, including the president’s preparation for his meeting with Vladimir Putin
  • The payment to Stephanie Clifford — a.k.a. Stormy Daniels
  • James Comey’s firing
  • Trump’s firing of U.S. attorneys
  • Trump’s proposed transgender ban for the military
  • Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s business dealings
  • White House staff’s personal email use
  • Cabinet secretary travel, office expenses, and other misused perks
  • Discussion of classified information at Mar-a-Lago
  • Jared Kushner’s ethics law compliance
  • Dismissal of members of the EPA board of scientific counselors
  • The travel ban
  • Family separation policy
  • Hurricane response in Puerto Rico
  • Election security and hacking attempts
  • White House security clearances

Compass Point’s Boltansky, meanwhile, says he expects Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA) to chair the House Financial Services Committee, where in addition to the above she’s likely to focus on Jared Kushner’s family finances, businesses and lenders such as Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, Signature Bank and Ladder Capital. Also in focus will be “aggressive” oversight of the Trump administration’s financial regulators and big bank oversight. 

In short, “These demands would turn the Trump White House into a 24/7 legal defense operation,” according to Axios‘ Jonathan Swann. 

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Becoming Serfs: Chris Hedges Warns “Ignore Reality At Your Peril”

Authored by Chris Hedges via TruthDig.com,

You know the statistics.

Income inequality in the United States has not been this pronounced in over a century. The top 10 percent has 50 percent of the country’s income, and the upper 1 percent has 20 percent of the country’s income. A quarter of American workers struggle on wages of less than $10 an hour, putting them below the poverty line, while the income of the average CEO of a major corporation is more than 300 times the pay of his or her average worker, a massive increase given that in the 1950s the average CEO made 20 times what his or her worker made. This income inequality is global. The richest 1 percent of the world’s population controls 40 percent of the world’s wealth. And it is getting worse.

What will the consequences of this inequality be economically and politically? How much worse will it get with the imposition of austerity programs and a new tax code that slashes rates for corporations, allowing companies to hoard money or buy back their own stock rather than invest in the economy? How will we endure as health care insurance premiums steadily rise and social and public welfare programs such as Medicaid, Pell Grants and food stamps are cut? And under the tax code revision signed by President Trump in December, rates will increase over the long term for the working class. Over the next decade, the revision will cost the nation roughly $1.5 trillion. Where will this end?

We live in a new feudalism. We have been stripped of political power. Workers are trapped in menial jobs, forced into crippling debt and paid stagnant or declining wages. Chronic poverty and exploitative working conditions in many parts of the world, and increasingly in the United States, replicate the hell endured by industrial workers at the end of the 19th century. The complete capture of ruling institutions by corporations and their oligarchic elites, including the two dominant political parties, the courts and the press, means there is no mechanism left by which we can reform the system or protect ourselves from mounting abuse. We will revolt or become 21st-century serfs, forced to live in misery and brutally oppressed by militarized police and the most sophisticated security and surveillance system in human history while the ruling oligarchs continue to wallow in unimagined wealth and opulence.

“The new tax code is explosive excess,” the economist Richard Wolff said when we spoke in New York.

“We’ve had 30 or 40 years where corporations paid less taxes than they ever did. They made more money than they ever did. They have been able to keep wages stagnant while the productivity of labor rose. This is the last moment historically they need another big gift, let alone at the expense of the very people whose wages have been stagnant. To give them a tax bust of this sort, basically reducing from 35 percent to 20 percent, is a 40 percent cut. This kind of crazy excess reminds you of the [kings] of France before the French Revolution when the level of excess reached an explosive social dimension. That’s where we are.”

When capitalism collapsed in the 1930s, the response of the working class was to form unions, strike and protest. The workers pitted power against power. They forced the oligarchs to respond with the New Deal, which created 12 million government-funded jobs, Social Security, the minimum wage and unemployment compensation. The country’s infrastructure was modernized and maintained. The Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC) alone employed 300,000 workers to form and maintain national parks.

“The message of the organized working class was unequivocal,” Wolff said. “Either you help us through this Depression or there will be a revolution.”

The New Deal programs were paid for by taxing the rich. Even in the 1950s, during the Eisenhower presidency, the top marginal rate was 91 percent.

The rich, enraged, mounted a war to undo these programs and restore the social inequality that makes them wealthy at our expense. We have come full circle. Dissidents, radicals and critics of capitalism are once again branded as agents of foreign powers and purged from universities and the airwaves. The labor movement has been dismantled, including through so-called right-to-work laws that prohibit agreements between unions and employers. The last remaining regulations to thwart corporate pillage and pollution are removed. Although government is the only mechanism we have to protect ourselves from predatory oligarchs and corporations, the rich tell us that government is the problem, not the solution. Austerity and a bloated and out-of-control military budget, along with the privatization of public services and institutions such as utilities and public education, we are assured, are the way to economic growth. And presiding over this assault and unchecked kleptocracy are the con artist in chief and his billionaire friends from the fossil fuel and war industries and elsewhere on Wall Street.

The elites cook statistics to lie about a recovery from the 2008 global financial crash. To gather unemployment statistics, for example, government agents ask people two questions: Are you working? If they answer “yes” they are counted as employed even if they have a temporary job in which they work only an hour a week. If they say “no” they are asked if they have been looking for work. If they have not looked for work in the last four weeks they are magically erased from the unemployment rolls. And then there is the long list of those not counted as unemployed, such as prisoners, the retired, stay-at-home spouses and high school and college students who want jobs. Alternative facts did not begin with Donald Trump.

“You don’t have to be a statistical genius to understand that over the last 10 years, a significant number of people gave up looking because it’s too disgusting,” Wolff said.

“The jobs they were offered were inferior to what they had before or so insecure that it made their family life impossible. They went back to school, went into the illegal economy or began to live off their friends, relatives and neighbors.”

“The quality of the jobs, the security, the benefits and the impact on physical and mental health have been cascading downward as the wages remain stagnant,” he went on.

“We’re not in a recovery. We’re in an ongoing decline, which, by the way, is why Mr. Trump got elected. This is happening to capitalism in Western Europe, Japan and the United States. This is why an angry working class is looking for ways to express and change its circumstances.

“Society has a responsibility to itself,” Wolff said. “If the private sector can’t or won’t manage that, then the public sector has to step in. It’s what [Franklin] Roosevelt said when he came on the radio: ‘If there are millions of Americans who ask for nothing other than a job, and the private sector can’t provide it, then it’s up to me. Who else is going to do it?’ If we cut back on welfare we are making people depend on the private sector. What happens to people thrown on a private capital sector that cannot and will not function in a socially acceptable way?”

“Instead of creating a middle class, it polarizes everything,” he said of the inequality. “It allows the top executives to go completely crazy with their pay packages. They are paid beyond what’s reasonable, beyond what their fellow capitalists receive in other parts of the world. There is a collapse of the ability to buy things. A company that saves all this money through a tax cut from Mr. Trump is not going to spend its money hiring people, buying machines, producing more. They’re having trouble selling what they already produce. They’re impoverishing the very people they sell to. What do they do with the money? They take it and pay themselves. They give themselves higher pay packages. They buy back their own stock, which they’re legally allowed to do. It pushes the price of the stock up. Their [personal] compensation is connected to how well the price of the stock does. No jobs are created. No growth is created. The price of stock is going up even though the viability of the enterprise—because of the [company’s] collapsing market—is shrinking.”

“Capitalism is hollowing itself out,” he said. “The capitalists refuse to face this because they are making money, for a while. That’s the same logic as the monarchs before the French Revolution building the fantastic Versailles without understanding they were digging their own graves in those lovely gardens.”

The elites divert attention from their pillage by blaming foreign countries such as China or undocumented workers for the economic demise of the working class.

“It’s a classic ploy of crooked politicians stuck with a problem of their own making, blaming somebody else,” Wolff said. “We take the poor 10 or 11 million immigrants in this country with questionable legal status and we demonize them. We scapegoat them. They couldn’t possibly account for the difficulties in this economy. Throwing them out does not fundamentally change the dynamics of the economy. It’s childishly easy to show this. But it’s good theater. ‘I am smiting the foreigner.’ ”

“Tariffs are another way to smite the foreigner,” Wolff went on. “The tariff is a punishment of others. These days, the bugaboo is China. They are the bad ones. They are doing this. I’d like to remind people two or three things about these tariffs:

One: Historically, they don’t work very well. It’s very easy to evade. For example, we put a tariff on steel from China. What do the Chinese do? They cut a deal with the Canadians or the Mexicans or the Koreans or the Europeans. Sell it to them, who resell it here. It’s on the same ship coming here. It just has a different flag at the back. This is childish. It’s well known.”

“Number two: It’s political theater,” he said. “It doesn’t change very much. For example, a good half of the goods that come from China come from subsidiaries of American corporations that went to China over the last 30 years to produce for the American market. You are smiting them by closing off their market. They’re going to be angry. They’re going to lose their investments. They’re going to take corrective action. All of this is negative for the American economy. It’s bizarre.”

“Finally, the Chinese, their politicians being not that different from ours, will have to posture in return and retaliate,” he said. “They’re already targeting our farm products. It is chaos. The United States, when we were a young country, was accused by the British and the Europeans of stealing their technology and intellectual property. Never before has it been easier to communicate intellectual property than it is today. The Chinese have been doing their share of this as an up-and-coming economy. It’s not new. It’s not frightening. It’s a part of how capitalism works. To suddenly get people outraged as if something special is going on, that’s just dishonest.”

There is no discussion in the corporate-controlled media of the effects of our out-of-control corporate capitalism. Workers struggling under massive debts, unable to pay for ever-rising health care and other basic costs, trapped in low-wage jobs that make life one long emergency, are rendered invisible by a media that entertains us with court gossip from porn actresses and reality television stars and focuses on celebrity culture. We ignore reality at our peril.

“We’ve given a free pass to a capitalist system because we’ve been afraid to debate it,” Wolff said. “When you give a free pass to any institution, you create the conditions for it to rot right behind the facade. That’s what is happening.”

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Zero Trimmed Hedges? How American Landscapers Found Themselves Reeling

Changes to the seasonal H-2B visa program by the Trump administration have left seasonal businesses across America without an adequate supply of foreign workers. In return, these small businesses have been severely damaged, as a labor shortageshows Americans do not want low-wage jobs.

Landscaping and the food industry have been hit the hardest — from lawn care companies in Pittsburg to crab houses in Maryland — small business owners are in shock as their foreign workforce is no more.

The administration’s decision to change the H-2B system from first-come, first-served to a lottery forced many small, American companies to lose out on their seasonal foreign workers, causing them to lose customers and profit as vendors turned to competitors.

Brian Friend spoke with The Wall Street Journal about how his small business canceled $80,000 in landscaping contracts because he could not find enough workers.

“It was a low point,” said the 42-year-old Mr. Friend, who runs Sylvan Gardens Landscape LLC in Pittsburgh.

Friend is not alone in this worker shortage crisis, many landscaping companies across the country are facing similar threats, spurred by low levels of unemployment and high demand for visas under the H-2B program. He noted that higher wages and generous bonuses did not attract American workers.

Brian Friend, owner of landscaping service Sylvan Gardens in Pittsburgh, estimates that he has lost $500,000 in revenue this year because his visa applications for immigrant workers weren’t approved. (Source/ WSJ) 

Richard Cafaro, the owner of a small business, Lawn Maintenance Services Co. in Pittsburg, said he shut down operations because his company did not receive any of the seasonal foreign-worker visas it requested. For nearly two decades, Cafaro relied upon the H-2B system to fill a majority of his field crews.

“I just had no path forward,” said Mr. Cafaro, 47. “It’s so frustrating.”

Customers were not happy. WSJ interviewed Theresa Dozzi, a 20-year customer, who watched her 3-acre yard around her 10,000 square-foot brick mansion deteriorate. She said the grass grew so high it became “unsightly.”

“It was a nightmare,” she added.

With a tight labor market and visa shortages, WSJ notes that many industries that relied on foreign seasonal workers have been badly damaged this year, especially Maryland’s crab-picking industry to New England restaurants to Michigan fudge shops. But the largest victim has been the $82 billion-a-year landscaping industry, which is the largest user of the visa program — accounting for 50 percent of all such visas certified by the government per year.

The visa program, which now has a cap, was remarkably oversubscribed in 2018 and left many landscapers across the country short-handed. US business requested 167,000 H-2B visas in the first three quarters of 2018, exceeding the congressional cap of 66,000 workers for the year.

Philip Brua, who operates CitiTurf LLC. in Plano, Texas, received about 50 percent of the 110 visas he requested for in 2018. That induced an internal crisis where Brua’s company could not fulfill all 5,000 landscaping contracts.

He said that his company tried to hire locally, but only one person showed up. Mr. Brua even raised wages by 40 percent in the last several years, but it has yet attracted local workers. In return, he canceled 846 contracts and said he expects to cancel 1,000 more next year if the labor shortage crisis continues. This translates to a $2 million and $4 million loss for the company in 2018.

“We spent 14 years building this business and it can all be gone in a second,” he said.

Aubrey Vincent, operates Lindy’s Seafood, a 40-year-old small business in the Trump-voting crab town of Fishing Creek, Maryland, told NBC that she had exhausted efforts to recruit American workers after receiving none of the 104 visas she requested this year. Her current staff has only been able to process 25 percent of the company’s normal volume of seafood, devastating her bottom line. Her full-time American employees in other departments have been working overtime to keep the business afloat.

Celia Serna, a guest worker at the J.M. Clayton processing plant in Cambridge, Md., picks crabs. (Source/ Baltimore Sun)

“I haven’t been able to give them vacations,” she said. “Everybody’s working way too much, and we don’t have enough hands to give everyone the relief they need.”

Bill Sieling, a director of the Chesapeake Bay Seafood Industries Association in Maryland, said that the seafood industry in the region had been crushed.

“Most of these companies can weather this year, but if this whole thing continues into next year, which is our nightmare scenario, you’re going to see the end of this industry,” he warned.

To sum up, small businesses across the country are faced with a shortage of temporary American workers because of the Trump administration’s limits on hiring foreign workers. Many of these companies have tried to source local labor but it turns out Americans do not want low wage jobs. President Trump has touted his “America First” agenda at rallies and at White House events. As a candidate, he often spoke on the campaign trail about his desire to prioritize American workers over immigrants seeking jobs. Interesting enough, the Trump Organization’s properties have on multiple occasions tried to hire temporary foreign workers through the H-2B visa program, according to the Department of Labor’s records.

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Remember When Obama And His Supporters Hated And Mocked John McCain?

Submitted by Rusty of The Political Insider,

While the left has spent the last few days shedding tears over the passing of Arizona Senator John McCain, it’s important to remember that their admiration for him hasn’t always been so prevalent.

In fact, Barack Obama and his supporters in 2008, when McCain dared to challenge the first African-American candidate for the presidency, offered far less adoration than you’ll see today.

For his part, the former President issued a statement raving about his longtime adversary, even lauding his tragic war experiences as a test that showed McCain’s courage.

“Few of us have been tested the way John once was or required to show the kind of courage that he did,” Obama said in a statement. “But all of us can aspire to the courage to put the greater good above our own.”

It is a far cry from those years in which supporters of Obama belittled McCain’s war record, mocked him for the injuries he suffered, scoffed at his age, and even compared him to a Nazi.

If you’re watching media coverage of the Republican ‘maverick’ today, you’d be skeptical. But yes, all of those things happened just a decade ago.

General Wesley Clark, an ardent defender of Obama who was once considered for the role of Vice President, scoffed at McCain’s war record, or the ‘test’ that Barack referenced.

“I don’t think getting in a fighter plane and getting shot down is a qualification to become president,” he said during a ‘Face the Nation’ interview.

Former Obama adviser Rand Beers attacked McCain saying his “isolation” during much of the Vietnam War (being a POW and tortured), meant that his national security experience was “sadly limited.”

Liberal blogger John Aravosis added to the reprehensible attacks saying, “getting shot down, tortured, and then doing propaganda for the enemy is not command experience.”

Aravosis was referring to a false confession drawn out of McCain after being tortured for multiple days and having his ribs broken in a North Vietnamese prison.

In a later blog post, Aravosis claimed Obama’s people asked him to do “all the dirty work” for the campaign.

What is now a test of courage and a sign of McCain’s strength was once a source of mockery for his political opponents. A political ad released by the campaign even mocked the Republican’s old age and inability to use email, a result of injuries sustained during his years in captivity.

“McCain’s severe war injuries prevent him from combing his hair, typing on a keyboard, or tying his shoes,” Mary Leonard wrote in the Boston Globe in 2000.

Rep. John Lewis painted McCain as comparable to George Wallace, a man fostering “an atmosphere of hate” and “hostility” in 2008. Two days ago he called the ‘hostile’ McCain a “warrior for peace.”

Then there was the far-left Hollywood crowd who adored Obama and remarkably compared McCain to Nazis and Adolf Hitler, paving the way for Trump supporters years later to not give a rip about the disparaging comparisons.

The animated comedy ‘Family Guy’ featured a scene in which characters were transported back to Nazi Germany and tried to blend in wearing uniforms, one of which had a McCain/Palin button.

Madonna, who this go around declared her fantasy was to blow up the White House because a Republican resides there, used a video montage during one of her concerts in 2008 that showed images of McCain alongside photos of Hitler and brutal Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe.

Not very many offered an ardent defense of McCain at the time. Certainly not the media, and certainly not soon-to-be President Obama and former President George W. Bush.

Yet both men have been invited to deliver a eulogy at the Senator’s funeral services at the National Cathedral.

By contrast, “Mr. McCain quietly declared before his death that he did not want Mr. Trump to take part in his funeral,” the New York Times reported.

How quickly they have forgotten that Obama and his supporters said the very same things Trump did during the heat of a political battle.

One side has been forgiven. The other has not.

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Starter Homes Most Expensive Since Just Before Last Housing Crash

There is a simple reason why the US housing market is headed for its “broadest slowdown in years“: prices for housing are just too high, a new report suggests. Which is odd considering the conventionally accepted narrative that “rising prices are better for everybody.”

According to a new report from the National Association of Realtors, prices for starter homes are the highest they have been since 2008, just prior to the collapse of the housing market, and when Ben Bernanke infamously said that there is no housing bubble  and that “we’ve never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis” and therefore we’ll never have one. The housing market suffered its worst crash on record shortly after.

In the second quarter, first time buyers needed 23% of their income in order to afford a typical entry-level home; this was up from 21% in the year prior, and the highest in the past decade.

This, of course, should surprise nobody as price gains in the housing market have long outpaced wages; in fact in most markets the average home price increase is double the growth in hourly earnings.

Now, with the housing market starting to show signs of cooling off, those bearing the brunt of the increases are buyers at the low-end of the market and in areas where supplies are the tightest. This has probably not been helped along by the volatile cost of commodities like lumber which have been impacted by Canadian tariffs, among others.

On top of that, rising interest rates are making mortgage prohibitively expensive for a broad section of the population.

“When prices go up at the entry level, that’s where the affordability issue is most acute,” Wells Fargo economist Charles Dougherty told Bloomberg. “People are hesitant to stretch the amount they’re willing to pay.”

The most expensive markets in the United States were San Francisco and New York City, where Bloomberg reported that the median household needed 65% of its income to buy a house in the second quarter of this year. Similar statistics followed in Los Angeles and Miami, where those numbers were 59% and 55%, respectively.

Perhaps a better way of saying this is that no mere mortal can actually afford to buy there, and the only buyers are members of the 0.01% or those who have an extremely generous mortgage lender.

None of this housing information is discussed at length by the FOMC or the government, which find no problem with a near record number of people getting priced out of the market. Nobody will be surprised when, as prices continue to rise, we are “surprised” by the next housing crisis.

This news comes just days after we reported layoffs taking place at Wells Fargo as a result of the slumping housing market and slower mortgage applications, as a result of collapsing mortgage loan demand. Last Friday, Wells Fargo announced it was cutting 638 mortgage employees as the nation’s largest home lender is hit by a crippling slowdown in the business.

“After carefully evaluating market conditions and consumer needs, we are reducing to better align with current volumes,” Wells Fargo spokesman Tom Goyda said in an emailed statement according to Bloomberg.

As we reported back in March that the “Bank Sector Is In Peril As Refi Activity Crashes Amid Rising Rates” and as interest rates have continued to rise, Wells Fargo has been contending with the end of a refinancing boom that helped push profits to a record.

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The Tectonic Plates Of Geopolitics Are Starting To Shift

Authored by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

The United States is currently waging economic warfare against one tenth of the world’s countries with cumulative population of nearly 2 billion people and combined gross domestic product (GDP) of more than $15 trillion.

These include Russia, Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, Sudan, Zimbabwe, Myanmar, the Democratic Republic of Congo, North Korea and others on which Washington has imposed sanctions over the years, but also countries like China, Pakistan and Turkey which are not under full sanctions but rather targets of other punitive economic measures.

In addition, thousands of individuals from scores of countries are included in the Treasury Department’s list of Specially Designated Nationals who are effectively blocked from the U.S.-dominated global financial system. Many of those designated are either part of or closely linked to their countries’ leadership…

But in recent months it seems that America’s unwavering commitment to fight all of the world’s scourges has brought all those governments and the wealthy individuals who support them to a critical mass, joining forces to create a parallel financial system which would be out of reach of America’s long arm. Should they succeed, the impact on America’s global posture would be transformational.

– From the recent article: The Anti-Dollar Awakening Could Be Ruder and Sooner Than Most Economists Predict

The peak of American empire has already come and gone, but this reality is not yet widely understood due to the continued dominance of the global financial system by the U.S. dollar, still the world’s preeminent reserve currency. U.S. leaders have always used the USD as a weapon, but it’s only in recent years that geopolitical rivals and long-standing allies alike have started to come to an increasingly vocal understanding that the unipolar role played by the U.S. in the world’s centralized financial system is well past its expiration date.

I think history will show Trump’s decision to unilaterally scrap the Iran deal (JCPOA) was the catalyst that caused much of rest of the world to get serious about creating alternative financial rails on which to conduct global business. Nation-states the world over are coming to the obvious conclusion that it’s virtually impossible to execute independent foreign policy in the content of a global financial system so completely dominated by the U.S.

European countries that entered the Iran deal wish to remain in it, but this has been complicated by the Trump administration’s decision to use the global financial system as a weapon. Although this angered leaders across the pond back in May when it first went down, it was unclear whether they’d just roll over as usual. Months later, it appears perhaps not.

First, we saw comments last week from Germany’s foreign minister Heiko Maas. Here are a few excerpts from his widely read column published last week at Handelsblatt.

Via Business Insider:

The US monopoly over the global payments infrastructure has been challenged by Germany’s foreign minister, Heiko Maas, who has suggested that the European Union should set up its own payment system that would give Brussels independence from Washington.

Maas wrote in the German daily Handelsblatt on Tuesday that the EU should “strengthen European autonomy by creating payment channels that are independent of the United States – a European Monetary Fund and an independent SWIFT system.”

“Europe should not allow the U.S. to act over our heads and at our expense,” Maas wrote.

Maas called for a “balanced partnership” with the U.S., in which Europe would fill gaps in the world left by the American withdrawal. He said Europe must “form a counterweight when the U.S. crosses red lines.”

“It is high time to re-evaluate our partnership…The Europeans must become a mainstay of the international order, a partner for all who are committed to this order,” Maas wrote.

Those are strong words, words that have not been walked back since. In fact, other historic U.S. allies feel emboldened to echo similar sentiments. As reported by Bloomberg earlier today:

“With Germany, we are determined to work on an independent European or Franco-German financing tool which would allow us to avoid being the collateral victims of U.S. extra-territorial sanctions,” French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said Monday during a meeting with press association AJEF. “I want Europe to be a sovereign continent not a vassal, and that means having totally independent financing instruments that do not today exist.”

“We have to react and strengthen Europe’s autonomy and sovereignty in trade, economic and finance policy,” Maas said in a speech in Berlin. Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland also spoke at the event and said that her nation shares the goal of preserving a multilateral world order.

If this sort of talk was merely limited to a couple of European nations expressing frustration with SWIFT, I probably wouldn’t have written this post. Where it gets really interesting is when you compare the sentiments highlighted above with the extraordinary statement made by Pakistan’s recently elected Prime Minster Imran Khan in the clip below.

But that’s not all. Take a look at the following excerpts from an article written by Daniel Sneider, Lecturer in East Asian Studies at Stanford University, in Tokyo Business Daily.

Inside the national security bureaucracy, there is growing alarm over relations with South Korea. On the surface, President Moon and his government continue to support U.S. diplomacy and reinforce its messages to Pyongyang. But things are starting to shift, with Seoul telling administration officials that the nuclear issue is basically between the U.S. and North Korea and that they want to separate their engagement with the North from progress on that issue.

“We have a big problem coming with South Korea,” a senior official involved in the talks told me. “It has reached the point where the South Koreans are determined to press ahead. They no longer feel the need to act in parallel with us.”

Moon is planning a visit next month to Pyongyang. He is eager to proceed with projects such as rail and pipe lines that will run from South, through the North, to Russia and China, as he outlined in a recent address.

Taken together, we can see a big picture starting to emerge. Countries around the world, including many longstanding U.S. allies, are starting to very publicly express frustration with U.S. imperial bullying, as well as deep concern with the limits placed on national sovereignty by a unipolar world centralized in Washington D.C.

We’re beginning to see the emergence of a global consensus related to two crucial geopolitical perspectives:

  1. A growing understanding that a world unilaterally controlled by an imperial U.S. which demands all other nations accept vassal status is no longer tenable.

  2. Recognition that a more multi-polar world cannot truly come into being without displacing, or at the very least creating, a viable alternative(s) to the USD-centric global financial system.

These developments have not been lost on many in the beltway, which is precisely why U.S. tech giants are being rapidly weaponized in a struggle to maintain imperial dominance. While the seemingly coordinated deplatforming of Alex Jones was the canary in the coal mine, the tech giants have also moved against several countries seen as problematic when it comes to achieving full spectrum dominance of the U.S. empire, including Venezuela, Iran and of course Russia.

As I tweeted last week:

It’s really undeniable at this point. U.S. tech giants are merely extensions of the U.S. shadow government — complicit organs of the imperial state masquerading as private companies.

While unquestionably disturbing, I see recent moves by the tech giants as part of a desperate response to the huge cracks developing beneath the post-World War II geopolitical paradigm. A status quo confident in its position or role in the world would never resort to such blatant attempts at censorship. This is all rooted in fear, insecurity and a futile desire to hold onto a world that is vanishing. 

I’ve discussed these themes continually over the years, but it’s nevertheless extraordinary to see it begin to play out. The tectonic plates of geopolitics are finally starting to shift. Slowly at first, rapidly later, and I expect the world to be entirely different in structure by around 2025.

Today’s post should be seen as an update to a four part series I published earlier this year. Links below.

Part 1: The Road to 2025 – Prepare for a Multi-Polar World
Part 2: The Road to 2025 – Russia and China Have Had Enough
Part 3: The Road to 2025 –USD Dominated Financial System Will Fall Apart
Part 4: The Road to 2025 – A Very Bright Future If We Demand It

*  *  *

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Top Student Loan Official Quits, Blames Trump; Warns “The System Is Rigged”

The top federal official overseeing the massive $1.5 trillion student loan market bubble resigned Monday, citing in a letter what he says is the Trump administration’s blatant disregard toward protecting the nations 44 million Americans struggling with student loan debt (which, however, they had no problem taking out).

In a fiery resignation letter, Seth Frotman, who until Monday morning was the Student Loan Ombudsman at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), warned that current leadership “has turned its back on young people and their financial futures.” i.e., loans are not being forgiven. The letter was addressed to the Honorable Mick Mulvaney, the Acting Director of the CFPB.

In the letter, obtained by NPR, Frotman unloads on Mulvaney and the Trump administration of undermining his ability to defend the millions of millennial loan borrowers struggling to stay afloat. There was no mention of explaining to said millions of millennials why taking out debt in the first place is a bad idea if there are no prospects of ever repaying it.

“I had hoped to continue this critical work in partnership with you and your staff by using our authority under law to stand up for student loan borrowers trapped in a broken system. Unfortunately, under your leadership, the Bureau has abandoned the very consumers it is tasked by Congress with protecting. Instead, you have used the Bureau to serve the wishes of the most powerful financial companies in America.”

Congress created the Student Loan Ombudsman office when it formed the CFB, citing the critical need for a specific office to handle student loan complaints.

Frotman’s office was quite powerful; they worked with the bureau’s enforcement staff to pinpoint bad behavior in the student loan market as well as an advocate for student loan borrowers. Since inception, the Student Loan Ombudsman office returned $750 million to harmed borrowers.

“Frotman’s office was central to processing tens of thousands of complaints from student loan borrowers against their servicers. It also was the office at the center of the lawsuits against for-profit colleges like Corinthian Colleges and is currently heading up a lawsuit between the CFPB and Navient. The Navient lawsuit has been mired in bureaucratic red tape as the Department of Education, headed by Betsy DeVos, has been unwilling to help the CFPB with their lawsuit,” said Bloomberg.

Under Mulvaney, Frotman’s student loan office was severely downgraded, which scaled back its enforcement work. Mulvaney’s office is currently in the process of revising or rescinding all of the rules and regulations it put into place under the Obama administration.

Frotman concludes the resignation letter with a warning that the “system is rigged to favor the most powerful financial interests.” He also mentioned millions of borrowers are “trapped in a broken student loan system”, by which he meant one in which borrowers are expect to repay their lenders:

In my time at the Bureau I have traveled across the country, meeting with consumers in over three dozen states, and with military families from over 100 military units. I have met with dozens of state law enforcement officials and, more importantly, I have heard directly from tens of thousands of individual student loan borrowers.

A common thread ties these experiences together — the American Dream under siege, told through the heart-wrenching stories of individuals caught in a system rigged to favor the most powerful financial interests. For seven years, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau fought to ensure these families received a fair shake as they as they strived for the American Dream.

Sadly, the damage you have done to the Bureau betrays these families and sacrifices the financial futures of millions of Americans in communities across the country.

For these reasons, I resign effective September 1, 2018. Although I will no longer be Student Loan Ombudsman, I remain committed to fighting on behalf of borrowers who are trapped in a broken student loan system.

As for millions of the millennials who are financially wrecked with student loans and shitty jobs in the gig economy, and whose only hope was to get their debt forgiven, perhaps complain to the Fed and demand that during the next bailout their debt be monetized too.

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Damning UN Report Calls For Myanmar Generals To Be Prosecuted For Genocide

Authored by Jessica Corbett via CommonDreams.org,

Following a United Nations Human Rights Council fact-finding mission in Myanmar, a damning U.N. report published Monday concludes that the nation’s military leaders, including its top commander, should be further investigated and prosecuted for genocide, crimes against humanity, and war crimes committed against Rohingya Muslims in the wake of a violent crackdown last August that forced more than half a million refugees to flee to neighboring Bangladesh.

“The gross human rights violations and abuses committed in Kachin, Rakhine, and Shan states,” which “stem from deep fractures in society and structural problems that have been apparent and unaddressed for decades,” the report asserts, “undoubtedly amount to the gravest crimes under international law.”

The report (pdf) comes from a yearlong investigation conducted by a three-member panel, which relied on 875 in-depth interviews with victims and eyewitnesses, satellite images, and verified documents, photographs, and videos. It documents crimes including murder, enforced disappearance, enslavement, imprisonment, torture, rape, and sexual slavery.

While the report determines that six leaders of the Myanmar military, or Tatmadaw—most notably Commander-in-Chief Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing—bear the greatest responsibility for such crimes, it also charges that State Counsellor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, “has not used her de facto position as head of government, nor her moral authority, to stem or prevent the unfolding events in Rakhine State.”

Among the report’s key recommendations, it declares, “The international community, through the United Nations, should use all diplomatic, humanitarian, and other peaceful means to assist Myanmar in meeting its responsibility to protect its people from genocide, crimes against humanity, and war crimes.”

It also urges the U.N. Security Council to “ensure accountability for crimes under international law committed in Myanmar, preferably by referring the situation to the International Criminal Court or alternatively by creating an ad hoc international criminal tribunal,” as well as to “adopt targeted individual sanctions, including travel bans and asset freezes, against those who appear most responsible for serious crimes under international law” and to “impose an arms embargo on Myanmar.”

Human rights advocates responded to the findings, which bolster previous reportsfrom U.N. officials and international news agencies, with immediate calls for actions.

Brad Adams, Asia director at Human Rights Watch, said that the “powerful report and clear recommendations demonstrate the obvious need for concrete steps to advance criminal justice for atrocious crimes, instead of more hollow condemnations and expressions of concern,” especially considering that “so far, condemnations without action by U.N. member states have only emboldened a culture of violence and oppression in Myanmar.”

Tirana Hassan, director of crisis response at Amnesty International, said the report makes “clear that the Myanmar authorities are incapable of bringing to justice those responsible,” which means that “the international community has the responsibility to act to ensure justice and accountability. Failing to do so sends a dangerous message that Myanmar’s military will not only enjoy impunity but is free to commit such atrocities again.”

The report will “have a big impact internationally, coming from the main U.N.-mandated body investigating the violence against the Rohingya, and also covering armed conflict in Shan, and Kachin states,” Richard Horsey, a former U.N. diplomat in Myanmar and longtime Yangon-based analyst, told the Washington Post. “Its specific finding that there is sufficient grounds for investigation and prosecution of military commanders for genocide is likely to have particularly serious diplomatic, not only legal, consequences.”

After the report’s release, Facebook – according to a company blog post – removed “18 Facebook accounts, one Instagram account, and 52 Facebook Pages, followed by almost 12 million people,” specifically banning  20 individuals and organizations, including the commander-in-chief and the military’s Myawady television network, “to prevent the spread of hate and misinformation.” Reuters noted that the “action means an essential blackout of the military’s main channel of public communication.”

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