Category: zerohedge

Obesity rates have increased at least slightly so far in 2013 across almost all major demographic and socioeconomic groups, according to Gallup's latest study. The largest upticks between 2012 and 2013 were among those aged 45 to 64 and those who earn between $30,000 and $74,999 annually – which 'coincidentally' is perfectly in the cohort that is 'disincentized' to work by the growing shadow of bought votes and entitlements. So, the question then becomes, is the considerable spike in 2013 that is so evident below the "peak" in obesity rates as the government is forced to introduce more haircuts on its foodstamp program? Time will tell…

US Obesity rate is spiking (along with the Fed's balance sheet and stocks…)

(h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)

 

Via Gallup:

The U.S. obesity rate thus far in 2013 is trending upward and will likely surpass all annual obesity levels since 2008, when Gallup and Healthways began tracking. It is unclear why the obesity rate is up this year, and the trend since 2008 shows a pattern of some fluctuation.

 

…

 

Blacks, those who are middle-aged, and lower-income adults continue to be the groups with the highest obesity rates. The healthcare law could help reduce obesity among low-income Americans if the uninsured sign up for coverage and take advantage of the free obesity screening and counseling that most insurance companies are required to provide under the law.

 

With the biggest rise in the cohorts that are dominated by the disincentized-to-work…"the single mom is better off earnings gross income of $29,000 with $57,327 in net income & benefits than to earn gross income of $69,000 with net income and benefits of $57,045."

 

So one wonders… with the foodstamp program being cut – will that mean higher obesity rates or lower?

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/YZdTAFqgiDs/story01.htm Tyler Durden

‘Another week, another high for equities’ is the resigned way JPMorgan’s Jan Loeys begins his discussion of “bubbles” this week – the massive gains in equity markets, in a month and a year of lower economic growth and earnings expectations, are raising a warning flag for many investors that easy money and liquidity are creating serious asset bubbles that threaten future growth and investment returns. Simply put, “a bubble view is a view that the Fed will stay easy for too long” and will then have to stamp on the brakes when growth and inflation suddenly react to easy money; and “a sudden spurt in growth is the biggest risk to asset reflation.”

 

Via JPMorgan’s The View,

What is a bubble? Bubbles are extreme asset price inflation and overvaluations; typically as easy money leads to exaggerated price gains on initially positive fundamentals that leverage then brings to a boil, before a reversal of conditions induces a crash as everyone tries to sell at the same time. The easy money is surely here this time, and so are the big price gains. The question is now whether markets are truly overvalued to fundamentals and whether conditions could reverse soon. We would like to say No to both. And we do not see that much evidence of leverage, either, at least not in DM, while recognizing that it is the unseen or underappreciated leverage that has done the most damage in past bubbles.

Starting with basic finance, a high asset price means high expected future cash flows and/or a low discount rate (low internal rate of return). An overvaluation must thus mean that cash flow expectations are too optimistic, or that they are discounted at too low a discount rate. Over the past two years, global growth and earnings expectations have been falling, and look realistic to us. Higher asset prices can thus only come from a lower discount rate. The most important market participants in setting this discount rate are the central banks, as they set the return on cash, which is the benchmark for everything else. The US Fed is most important here, as USD assets make up half the global security universe and a number of other central banks keep their currency close to the USD and thus follow the Fed’s policy.

 

 

 

Other asset discount rates, or IRRs, on equities and bonds are greatly affected by the Fed, but do not seem too low to us. The charts above show the risk-return trade off line of USD assets, and the slope of this line over the past 60 years. The average risk premium of bonds and equities over cash remains one standard deviation above its historic mean, and seems high relative to our judgment of future uncertainty. But the all-in IRRs on bonds and equities can only stay low, and prices high, if the Fed holds the return on cash near zero. A view that assets are in a bubble is thus a view that the Fed is keeping interest rates too low, relative to the outlook for growth and inflation.

By our measures, global growth is set to cruise at a trend pace of near 3% over the next year. A trend-like growth rate pace does not imply that policy rates should also be at neutral, though, as the world economy continues to operate well below capacity. Our economists judge that the DM economies are operating 3% below capacity, while EM is only 0.5% below capacity. A bubble view is a view that the Fed will stay easy for too long and will then have to stamp on the brakes when growth and inflation suddenly react to easy money.

There is little in US data that suggests a serious risk of a sudden spurt in private sector growth beyond the fading in fiscal drag from the public sector. But we cannot dismiss such risk as funding is extremely easy. The best we and the Fed can do is to monitor economic conditions and to adjust strategy and policy if growth were to accelerate suddenly. Investors should continue to overweight assets whose IRRs are least dependent on easy money. That supports our strategy since mid 2009 of overweighting equities versus bonds.

Paradoxically, low growth does not contradict higher asset prices, but is at its roots, as a weak recovery induced policy easing, which boosted asset prices. This summer’s taper-talk crisis highlights that a sudden spurt in growth is the biggest risk to asset reflation. A gentle grind up is our preferred scenario.

 

 

ZH: So there you have it – the biggest risks are “unseen and under-appreciated leverage” (margin debt at all-time highs, rehypothecation at extremes, ETFs enabling it) and the catalyst for a popping bubble “growth” – once again good news truly is bad news…

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/Dc5cqbnr2bA/story01.htm Tyler Durden

‘Another week, another high for equities’ is the resigned way JPMorgan’s Jan Loeys begins his discussion of “bubbles” this week – the massive gains in equity markets, in a month and a year of lower economic growth and earnings expectations, are raising a warning flag for many investors that easy money and liquidity are creating serious asset bubbles that threaten future growth and investment returns. Simply put, “a bubble view is a view that the Fed will stay easy for too long” and will then have to stamp on the brakes when growth and inflation suddenly react to easy money; and “a sudden spurt in growth is the biggest risk to asset reflation.”

 

Via JPMorgan’s The View,

What is a bubble? Bubbles are extreme asset price inflation and overvaluations; typically as easy money leads to exaggerated price gains on initially positive fundamentals that leverage then brings to a boil, before a reversal of conditions induces a crash as everyone tries to sell at the same time. The easy money is surely here this time, and so are the big price gains. The question is now whether markets are truly overvalued to fundamentals and whether conditions could reverse soon. We would like to say No to both. And we do not see that much evidence of leverage, either, at least not in DM, while recognizing that it is the unseen or underappreciated leverage that has done the most damage in past bubbles.

Starting with basic finance, a high asset price means high expected future cash flows and/or a low discount rate (low internal rate of return). An overvaluation must thus mean that cash flow expectations are too optimistic, or that they are discounted at too low a discount rate. Over the past two years, global growth and earnings expectations have been falling, and look realistic to us. Higher asset prices can thus only come from a lower discount rate. The most important market participants in setting this discount rate are the central banks, as they set the return on cash, which is the benchmark for everything else. The US Fed is most important here, as USD assets make up half the global security universe and a number of other central banks keep their currency close to the USD and thus follow the Fed’s policy.

 

 

 

Other asset discount rates, or IRRs, on equities and bonds are greatly affected by the Fed, but do not seem too low to us. The charts above show the risk-return trade off line of USD assets, and the slope of this line over the past 60 years. The average risk premium of bonds and equities over cash remains one standard deviation above its historic mean, and seems high relative to our judgment of future uncertainty. But the all-in IRRs on bonds and equities can only stay low, and prices high, if the Fed holds the return on cash near zero. A view that assets are in a bubble is thus a view that the Fed is keeping interest rates too low, relative to the outlook for growth and inflation.

By our measures, global growth is set to cruise at a trend pace of near 3% over the next year. A trend-like growth rate pace does not imply that policy rates should also be at neutral, though, as the world economy continues to operate well below capacity. Our economists judge that the DM economies are operating 3% below capacity, while EM is only 0.5% below capacity. A bubble view is a view that the Fed will stay easy for too long and will then have to stamp on the brakes when growth and inflation suddenly react to easy money.

There is little in US data that suggests a serious risk of a sudden spurt in private sector growth beyond the fading in fiscal drag from the public sector. But we cannot dismiss such risk as funding is extremely easy. The best we and the Fed can do is to monitor economic conditions and to adjust strategy and policy if growth were to accelerate suddenly. Investors should continue to overweight assets whose IRRs are least dependent on easy money. That supports our strategy since mid 2009 of overweighting equities versus bonds.

Paradoxically, low growth does not contradict higher asset prices, but is at its roots, as a weak recovery induced policy easing, which boosted asset prices. This summer’s taper-talk crisis highlights that a sudden spurt in growth is the biggest risk to asset reflation. A gentle grind up is our preferred scenario.

 

 

ZH: So there you have it – the biggest risks are “unseen and under-appreciated leverage” (margin debt at all-time highs, rehypothecation at extremes, ETFs enabling it) and the catalyst for a popping bubble “growth” – once again good news truly is bad news…

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/Dc5cqbnr2bA/story01.htm Tyler Durden

It is only fitting that promptly following the third worst bear market of all time resulting from the bursting of the biggest, until that point, credit bubble …

… that as a result of over $10 trillion in global fungible central bank balance sheet expansion, and a new and improve and bigger than ever credit bubble, one which includes the sovereigns too, the S&P is now 162% higher from its March 9 2009 lows of 676.53, making this the fourth biggest bull market in US history, and 120% greater than the median, 73.53%, bull market since 1929.

The next logical question: what would make this relentless Fed balance sheet tracking “bull market” become the 3rd biggest bull market in history, or 2nd biggest… or biggest of all time.

Here are the S&P500 breakevens for those particular thresholds:

• 2,225 on the S&P would mean a 228.9% rise from the lows, becoming the 3rd biggest bull market ever.
• 2,500 on the S&P would mean a 267.1% rise from the lows, becoming the 2nd biggest bull market ever.

And, the winner, and perhaps the Fed’s real end target for the S&P500, which would make the current artificial stock ramp on tens, and soon hundreds, of billions in monthly Fed flows, is:

• 4,616 on the S&P500 for a 582.3% return from the March 2009 lows without a 20% bear market drawdown inbetween.

At that point the Fed will be able to sleep soundly, knowing its biggest credit bubble ever has also resulted in the biggest equity bull market of all time.

So just under 3,000 more points to go.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/A1xNT4Xu5Fo/story01.htm Tyler Durden

It is only fitting that promptly following the third worst bear market of all time resulting from the bursting of the biggest, until that point, credit bubble …

… that as a result of over $10 trillion in global fungible central bank balance sheet expansion, and a new and improve and bigger than ever credit bubble, one which includes the sovereigns too, the S&P is now 162% higher from its March 9 2009 lows of 676.53, making this the fourth biggest bull market in US history, and 120% greater than the median, 73.53%, bull market since 1929.

The next logical question: what would make this relentless Fed balance sheet tracking “bull market” become the 3rd biggest bull market in history, or 2nd biggest… or biggest of all time.

Here are the S&P500 breakevens for those particular thresholds:

• 2,225 on the S&P would mean a 228.9% rise from the lows, becoming the 3rd biggest bull market ever.
• 2,500 on the S&P would mean a 267.1% rise from the lows, becoming the 2nd biggest bull market ever.

And, the winner, and perhaps the Fed’s real end target for the S&P500, which would make the current artificial stock ramp on tens, and soon hundreds, of billions in monthly Fed flows, is:

• 4,616 on the S&P500 for a 582.3% return from the March 2009 lows without a 20% bear market drawdown inbetween.

At that point the Fed will be able to sleep soundly, knowing its biggest credit bubble ever has also resulted in the biggest equity bull market of all time.

So just under 3,000 more points to go.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/A1xNT4Xu5Fo/story01.htm Tyler Durden

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President Obama, the US federal government shutdown, the omnipotence of the National Security Agency and the anger of the world at just how much the USA flouts the laws that we thought we might have lived by. These are all reasons and more for the rest of the world to turn their backs on the most powerful country in the world and play a role in its demise. What the USA has not realized is that when the going gets tough, the rest of the world which just turn their backs on them and jump into bed with China. That’s happening right now, but is there actually anyone (except the billions of people that live outside the country) in the USA that believes that this is going to happen? It may not happen tomorrow and it’s certainly not going to happen overnight. But, the necessary groundwork is being laid down and the demise of the USA is in sight already. But, there are probably still 313.9 million people that are under the belief that it will never happen. How wrong they will be. Or have they just been sheepled into a complacent state of acceptance?

Snowden Affair and the NSA

The governments and the leaders of the countries around the world may have serenely played a role in the spying tactics of the NSA. But, now that the citizens of those countries have finally been told what the NSA and those very same leaders that they voted into office were actually up to, the people are ready to perhaps not revolt (although they should), then at least condemn and use the only power that they actually might have left. The leaders of those countries will now do anything they have to, out of fear that the people will exercise their last right (now that democracy has been proved to have gone well and truly into oblivion): the right to vote in and out of office. The people know one thing: those that are attracted to power will do everything or anything (or both at the same time) to get into office and they will do even more to stay there with the bonuses, privileges and power-rush that they get given every time they stand in front of the mike to give a press conference and get whisked away in their chauffeur-driven cars.

As Angela Merkel reels from the revelations that she was also under scrutiny by the USA, the Germans are asking for Snowden to be allowed asylum in Germany. To believe that Edward Snowden might be comfortable in Russia right now is nothing on what he could be in the Germany. It would mean an added victory for the man that has finally had the gumption to reveal that 70.3 million communications were tapped in France, that over 60 million were also listened into in Spain and that Germany was a prime target as a leading industrial nation in the EU and the world.

Please don’t tell us that we are benefiting from the fact that the NSA has taken away a fundamental right that they had no right to actually remove. Harping on about how many terrorists have been caught and how many lives have been saved for the common good of all is nothing more than a smack in the face with a king-size portion of lies (sometimes a splattering of ketchup is thrown in for good measure).  Please don’t be so condescending as to believe that the French would pop their champagne corks if they knew what good the NSA was doing. Please don’t tell us that they are all doing it. Just because everyone does it to their own populations doesn’t mean the US can do it too.

German intellectual Hans Magnus Enzensberger said that “the American dream is turning into a nightmare”. TheAmerican dream is long gone.

Enzensberger said that the UK has become “a US colony” and the British people might be thinking quite the same right now as they are lauded and condemned in the EU today for digging their own grave by siding with the Yanks.

Towards the end of August 2013 the partner of Glenn Greenwald (The Guardian reporter who wrote the majority of the Snowden revelations) was arrested and detained at Heathrow airport for nine hours under anti-terrorism laws. British government officials ordered hard drives at British newspapers to be destroyed or face legal action. Prime Minister of the UK David Cameron used veiled threats last week to say that he would have to resort to “other tougher measures” against newspapers that carried out such investigative journalism. Now, there are 70 international human-rights organizations that have condemned his comments. The British public might have had enough and Cameron will be forced to fall in line with what they have to say. Although, does that mean that it will all come to a halt? Probably not, but, the people need to at least believe that they are living in a country that allows freedom of the press and speech.

Heiner Geisser (former secretary to Angela Merkel and the Christian Democrats) said: “Snowden has done the western world a great service. It is now up to us to help him”.

Although it is doubtful if Germany would actually go that far, it will certainly increase the leverage that Merkel has in the world and it will certainly mean that she will have greater clout in the face of the US. One man’s power declines, another (wo)man’s weight increases.

China

When it comes to making money, the world will turn their backs on the USA as soon as they have to. The problem is that the USA still believes that it won’t happen. They have had decades of believing that they will always be top of the roost. But, the wheel turns and fortunes will change. Nobody stays at the top all the time, not even dictators. The USA has been dictating for far too long and now it’s someone else’s turn. The wonderful thing about dictatorships is that you are only a dictator just as long as the people allow you to be one. The Master only exists because the Slave allows him to. So, who’s the real Master?

China has liberalized its industry and it is starting to gear up for liberalization of its finances today. China is talking of its economic ‘masterplan’ today. Next weekend there will be the third plenum of the Communist Party and it will focus on the economy of China and the changes that need to be made. It is suspected that it will be quality and not quantity that is the order of the day in the manufacturing sector. It is believed that the Renminbi will be allowed to operate in a wider trading band and that there will be the possibility of banks going fully into private ownership. Cross-border capital flow will therefore become much easier. China has savings of $4 trillion today and the opening up and liberalization of the financial market would mean that any country would be vying for a piece of that cake. Why would George Osborne, Chancellor of the Exchequer in the UK, have flown to Beijing last week to try to convince the Chinese that London was the place to trade the Renminbi in the future? The UK and others will turn their backs (or at least they will turn over and move to the other side of the bed) if they can get some of that pie.

Bye Bye Miss American Pie: this is the day that the US died

The rest of the world is ready to jump into bed with China. There may or may not be a divorce between the USA and its old lover, but at least right now the world is ready to play around with China just for the thrill of it, before the USA gets home. But, by the time it wakes up from its shutdown, its self-centered talk on budget ceilings and Quantitative Easing and when it finally comes clea
n about its illegal and reprehensible eavesdropping on the entire world in a bout of power-struggle that dates back to another era, then it will realize that it has been spending too much time working at the office and the world has had enough of being neglected, down-trodden and ill-treated. Yes, the world is ready to jump into bed with China and it will more than likely be a far better lover. At least we expect China to eavesdrop on us, at least the West expects them to be subversive in their dealings and fake it when they are with us. But, we know all that and so expect it. With the USA the world thought that they were getting something better.

The USA might have been in bed with China in the past, but that’s going to change in the future. It will be the others.

It’s not ‘Game Over’ that will echo from the good old land of Uncle Sam as more than one has told the world before, this time, it’s the honeymoon that’s over, guys!

Originally posted: World Ready to Jump into Bed with China

 

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Technical Analysis: Bear Expanding Triangle | Bull Expanding Triangle | Bull Falling Wedge | Bear Rising Wedge | High & Tight Flag

 

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/r47Ag_atRDQ/story01.htm Pivotfarm

In what is the biggest black eye for Bill Gross and the largest bond manager in the world, moments ago Bloomberg reported that the title of the world’s largest mutual fund has just changed hands:

• PIMCO TOTAL RETURN LOSES LARGEST MUTUAL FUND TITLE TO VANGUARD
• GROSS’S PIMCO TOTAL RETURN BECAME LARGEST MUTUAL FUND IN 2008
• PIMCO TOTAL RETURN HAD $247.9 BILLION IN ASSETS AS OF OCT. 31

This comes on the heels of what Reuters reports is the sixth consecutive month of outflows for the TRF, with $4.4 billion withdrawn in October, while on the other side Vanguard, now at $251 billion, has more than tripled in size since the end of 2008 as the scramble for equities in Bernanke’s new normal has become the only game in town.

Which begs the question: a few months ago, the BOE’s Andy Haldane stated explicitly that central bankers have “intentionally blown the biggest government bond bubble in history.” So with this symbolic shift away from bonds and into stocks, is the bubble now well and truly just an equity phenomenon?

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/l0Hr5uZCQ24/story01.htm Tyler Durden

In what is the biggest black eye for Bill Gross and the largest bond manager in the world, moments ago Bloomberg reported that the title of the world’s largest mutual fund has just changed hands:

• PIMCO TOTAL RETURN LOSES LARGEST MUTUAL FUND TITLE TO VANGUARD
• GROSS’S PIMCO TOTAL RETURN BECAME LARGEST MUTUAL FUND IN 2008
• PIMCO TOTAL RETURN HAD $247.9 BILLION IN ASSETS AS OF OCT. 31

This comes on the heels of what Reuters reports is the sixth consecutive month of outflows for the TRF, with $4.4 billion withdrawn in October, while on the other side Vanguard, now at $251 billion, has more than tripled in size since the end of 2008 as the scramble for equities in Bernanke’s new normal has become the only game in town.

Which begs the question: a few months ago, the BOE’s Andy Haldane stated explicitly that central bankers have “intentionally blown the biggest government bond bubble in history.” So with this symbolic shift away from bonds and into stocks, is the bubble now well and truly just an equity phenomenon?

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/l0Hr5uZCQ24/story01.htm Tyler Durden

UPDATE: 10 minutes later – *BATS EXCHANGES REVOKE SELF-HELP AGAINST NYSE EXCHANGES

It’s Monday morning and stock “markets” are open for trading… well some of them…

• *BATS EXCHANGES DECLARE SELF-HELP AGAINST NYSE
• *NYSE AND NYSE MKT REVIEWING TRADES MARKED AS SOLD

Of course, as CNBC once said, we are all getting used to this now (and stocks are going higher) – so it doesn’t matter.

 

From BATS:

 

and from NYSE:

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/Ph5HSEXQRco/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Just days ahead of the most-anticipated IPO of the year, and despite the constant calming language from the mainstream media, as the WSJ notes, investors are stampeding into initial public offerings at the fastest clip since the financial crisis, fueling a frenzy in the shares of newly listed companies that echoes the technology-stock craze of the late 1990s. October was the busiest month for U.S.-listed IPOs since 2007, and while ‘everyone’ is convinced that the Twitter IPO will be different from Facebook, the early exuberant demand suggests otherwise:

• *TWITTER SEES IPO PRICE $23-$25, HAD SEEN $17-$20

So a 25% rise in the offering price perhas best contextualizes the comments of one broker: “When I hear intelligent investors asking me not which companies are good to invest in, but which IPOs can I get into, it scares the heck of me.”

 

But it’s not all rainbows and unicorns:

• TWITTER INC UPDATES RISK FACTOR IN IPO FILING; TWITTER RECENTLY GOT LETTER FROM IBM ALLEGING THAT CO INFRINGE ON AT LEAST 3 US PATENTS HELD BY IBM
• TWITTER INC – PATENTS SPECIFICALLY IDENTIFIED BY IBM INCLUDED PATENT ON ‘METHOD FOR PRESENTING ADVERTISING IN AN INTERACTIVE SERVICE’ – SEC FILING

 

But of course, none of that matters – as the flow has to go somwehere, and the VC has to get paid…

 

Via WSJ,

October was the busiest month for U.S.-listed IPOs since 2007, with 33 companies raising more than $12 billion.

 

…

 

The rush to buy shares of newly public companies is the latest sign of investors’ thirst for assets with potential upside, at a time when relatively safe investments are generating scant income due to tepid economic growth and Federal Reserve policies that have kept a lid on U.S. interest rates.

 

Many of these companies aren’t profitable. But investors increasingly are willing to roll the dice, particularly on technology firms that they say have the potential to “disrupt” the industry.

 

…

 

So far this year, 61% of companies selling U.S.-listed IPOs have lost money in the 12 months preceding their debuts, according to Jay Ritter, professor of finance at the University of Florida. That is the highest percentage since 2000, the year the Nasdaq Composite Index roared to its all-time high of 5048.62.

 

…

 

Many IPOs this year have raised funds to pay back debt to private-equity owners rather than to invest in corporate expansion,

 

…

 

“These are good companies,” said John Bichelmeyer, co-manager of the $450 million Buffalo Emerging Opportunities Fund, the top small-cap growth mutual fund by three-year performance, according to Morningstar. “It’s just, you’re pricing in all the growth on day one.”

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/QlruZHz9REI/story01.htm Tyler Durden