Category: zerohedge

We detailed previously that the US State Department is livid over repeat rocket and mortar attacks on both the US Embassy in Baghdad and the high secure ‘Green Zone’ in which the American compound is located.

This resulted in US officials signaling at the start of this week they are mulling shuttering the embassy altogether and calling all diplomatic personnel home. Multiple reports say “preparations” for just such a retreat are underway, which strongly suggests bigger US military intervention will follow.

Not only was there weekend fire on the US embassy area, but a Monday attack on Baghdad’s international airport, which also hosts Western military advisory forces, killed five Iraqi civilians when a rocket slammed into their house on the edge of the airport.

Both Iraqi and American diplomats have now told Reuters that the region will interpret closure of the US Embassy as a sure sign war is coming. 

According to the report, it would mean a US “gloves off” approach to pro-Iranian Shia Iraqi militias which have long been blamed for the sporadic rocket attacks on Western interests, on a noticeable uptick of late:

Any move by the United States to reduce its diplomatic presence in a country where it has up to 5,000 troops would be widely seen in the region as an escalation of its confrontation with Iran, which Washington blames for missile and bomb attacks.

That in turn would open the possibility of military action, with just weeks to go before an election in which President Donald Trump has campaigned on a hard line towards Tehran and its proxies.

Indeed it could be a Trump administration “tough on Iran” foreign policy selling point, in line with the long-running maximum pressure campaign, especially given there are Iran hawks on both sides of the aisle. 

Reuters cited Western diplomatic sources to say that if the go ahead order for a full embassy withdrawal is actually given, expect swift military action to follow: “The concern among the Iraqis is that withdrawing diplomats would be followed quickly by military action against forces Washington blamed for attacks.”

Al Jazeera English: “Iraq: Five civilians killed in Baghdad rocket attack” https://t.co/8LbKAYaCCK

— Evan Kohlmann (@IntelTweet) September 28, 2020

But the embassy closure or especially a timetable is still anything but certain, as the report notes:

One of the Western diplomats said the U.S. administration did not “want to be limited in their options” to weaken Iran or pro-Iranian militias in Iraq. Asked whether he expected Washington to respond with economic or military measures, the diplomat replied: “Strikes.”

The U.S. State Department, asked about plans to withdraw from Iraq, said: “We never comment on the Secretary’s private diplomatic conversations with foreign leaders … Iran-backed groups launching rockets at our Embassy are a danger not only to us but to the Government of Iraq.”

Despite Katyusha rocket attacks on the embassy in the past months becoming a near weekly occurrence (as well as deployment of countermeasures), there’s rarely any casualties or material damage to the embassy. 

Typically the non-precision rockets fall in open fields, and it’s yet ultimately unknown and unproven just who or which group is behind the bulk of the attacks. 

The day has finally come for the mano-a-mano first debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. The questions continue about whether Biden will make 90 minutes of debate after his sundowning and whether Trump can get through the debate without self-immolation.

Of course no matter what is actually said, Biden will be declared the victor by MSM but here are some questions that AmericanThinker.com’s Josh Kantrow suggests Chris Wallace ask Joe Biden…

1. Why did members of your family keep getting lucrative business opportunities overseas while you were vice president? 

2. How did your brother, Frank, secure $45,000,000 in taxpayer loans from the Obama administration for his Caribbean projects? 

3. How did a newly minted firm employing your other brother, James, receive a $1.5-billion contract to build homes in Iraq despite having no experience in construction or international development? 

4. Why did your son Hunter accompany you on your official trip to Beijing in December 2013?  What did he do on that trip?  Whom did he meet with?  What should the American public make of the fact that just ten days after this trip, your son’s boutique private equity firm secured a $1-billion investment deal from the state-owned bank of China (later expanded to $1.5 billion) despite having no prior experience in China, and why, with this deal, did the Chinese government grant your son’s firm a first-of-its-kind arrangement to operate in the the recently formed Shanghai Free-Trade Zone — a perk not granted to any of the large established financial institutions? 

5. Should the American public be concerned that your son’s private equity firm partnered with a Chinese government-owned aerospace and defense conglomerate to facilitate the purchase of an American company that produced strategically sensitive dual-use military technology that the Chinese government wanted?

6. Does your “Build Back Better” proposal contain any provisions to ensure that American taxpayer-funded technology is not bought off by Chinese state-backed enterprises working with private equity firms like your son’s?

7. Back in 2000, you voted in favor of giving permanent Normal Trade Relations (NTR) to China.  At the time, you said this would not lead to “the collapse of the American manufacturing economy” because China is “about the size of the Netherlands” and could not possibly become “our major economic competitor.”  Furthermore, you predicted that free trade with China would establish “a path toward ever greater political and economic freedom” for the people of China.  Do you stand by these statements today after 3.4 million American jobs have been lost to China and millions of China’s citizens have been imprisoned, surveilled, disappeared, and used as slave labor by an increasingly authoritarian regime enriched by 20 years of record trade imbalances from flagrant trade violations?

8. The People’s Republic of China has a bold plan called “Made in China 2025” to dominate the key technologies of the future in order to overtake the United States militarily and economically.  Do you still contend that China is “not competition for us”?

9. Why did you promote the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) to financial special interest groups when research was clear that the deal would make it easier for corporations to move U.S. jobs overseas?

10. Do you believe that Xi Jinping kept his promise to Barack Obama to end cyber-espionage against the United States?  If not, what are you prepared to do about it?

11. Do you accept that the coronavirus originated in China?  Do you think China was honest with the world in its handling of the coronavirus?  Are you satisfied with China’s explanations for how it spread?  Do you believe Chinese claims about the number of cases and fatalities in China?

12. Do you think China should be held responsible in any way for its handling of the coronavirus?  If not, why not?  What, if any, repercussions should there be for China in its handling of the coronavirus?

13. Did you suggest investigating Michael Flynn under the Logan Act, as Peter Strzok’s notes suggest?

14. You said in your DNC acceptance speech that America is ready to “do the hard work of rooting out our systemic racism.”  What did you do in your 36 years as a U.S. senator and eight years as vice president to root out systemic racism?  Why didn’t it work?

15. You have called for “revolutionary institutional changes.”  What does that mean in practice?

16. You have vowed to rescind the Trump tax cuts.  Can you think of a single example of a country that recovered from a recession by raising taxes?

Perhaps Wallace should be judged on how many of these questions are asked?

In what may be the biggest mass layoff in recent history, after the market close Walt Disney unveiled its transformation to the most miserable place on earth, announcing that it would lay off 28,000 workers in its U.S. resort business, in the latest confirmation that the covid pandemic continues to devastate all tourism and communal experiences.

“As heartbreaking as it is to take this action, this is the only feasible option we have in light of the prolonged impact of Covid-19 on our business,” Josh D’Amaro, the chairman of the parks division, said in a memo to workers.

The cuts span across the company’s various businesses including theme parks, cruise ships and retail businesses, Disney said on Tuesday. While the layoffs also include executive, they are focusing on part-time workers: 67% of those getting a pink slip are part-time workers.

As part of its farewell package, Disney will offer benefits to the workers being cut, including 90 days of severance.

The mass layoffs follow the furloughing of a massive 43,000 workers in April, when the company was first impacted by the covid pandemic. 

In July, Disney triumphantly reopened several of its shuttered parks, including in Florida, although visits were a fraction of their pre-covid levels. Disney still hasn’t received clearance to restart operations at its two theme parks in Anaheim, California.

Before the pandemic, Disney’s domestic parks alone employed more than 100,000.

And while one can “understand” the plight of management, which is scrambling to boost cash flow after it saddled the company with record debt in recent years…

… it probably would make all those soon-to-be-laid off workers feel a little bit better if most of that newly issued debt hadn’t gone to pay for stock buybacks the benefited upper management.

Disney stock dropped on the news because it appears that buybacks won’t be coming back any time soon.

The Huffington Post has already been gutted by several waves of layoffs since the left-leaning digital news aggregator was sold to Verizon as part of a deal to buy the rest of AOL’s assets in 2015. Now, the New York Post is reporting that the telecoms giant, which engineered the acquisition as part of a larger content play, is shopping around for a buyer.

But in one of the worst environments for bloated digital media outlets in ages, it appears Verizon is having trouble finding a seller.

To be fair, HuffPo essentially came with the rest of the furniture during Verizon’s $4.4 billion acquisition of AOL, a deal that has proven about as disastrous as one might expect.

Verizon has pitched the site to several companies, including Thrillist owner Group Nine Media, Rolling Stone published Penske Media, Bustle Digital Media and J2 Global, according to a report in Insider, a rival digital media publication which has itsef created headaches at its owner, German publisher Axel Springer. 

To be fair, Verizon has gotten at least one nibble from Vox. Given the left-leaning editorial direction at Huffpo, it’s possible that some synergies might be found.

Unfortunately for HuffPo’s remaining employees, part of the sale will likely be based on whether the buyer is willing to take an axe to HuffPo’s “enormous” overhead costs. 

Being a “reporter” at the Ariana Huffington-founded website is a notoriously thankless job featuring substandard pay and long hours, with employees essentially at the mercy of Ariana Huffington and her favored inner circle, according to a New York Times expose from a few years back which exposed Huffington’s hypocrisy in selling “work-life balance” while exploiting low-paid recent graduates, mostly from the Ivies and other top schools (an unspoken prerequisite for the job is having parents wealthy enough to help out with rent and pocket money, given the abysmal pay, which can be less than $40,000 a year.

Then again, one expert opined to the New York Post that the site is essentially worthless, reasoning that if Verizon can’t sell enough ads on the site, then nobody can.

“The brand means nothing anymore and it’s ultra partisan,” said one unnamed source.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Authored by Scott Willis via Grizzle.com,

WHO IS PALANTIR?

To put it simply, Palantir is one of the oldest private big data software companies.

Palantir sells software to businesses and government agencies to help them manage their data and make better connections.

For example, Palantir can find connections from thousands of unstructured data points (credit card purchases, phone calls, web browsing) to identify a potential terrorist for government agencies.

The company was built on government contracts and only recently has begun making a big push to diversify into corporate contracts.

Palantir’s product is most definitely valuable and in demand, but there are three major risks we see to continued growth and profitability that are keeping us on the sidelines for now.

THREE MAJOR RISKS TO GROWTH

#1: Reliance on Big Government Clients

Palantir is trying to diversify away from a dependence on government contracts but so far has not been successful.

Looking at the % of revenue coming from the largest 20 clients (read governments) we don’t see a meaningful decrease in the weighting over the last few years.

A high concentration of customers means a loss of one can have a big impact on revenue growth and the stock price.

Investors don’t like surprises and Palantir’s customer concentration is currently an unwelcome feature of the company.

% OF REVENUE COMING FROM LARGEST 25 CUSTOMERS

A contract with the U.S. Army made up a big part of that jump in government revenue.

The U.S Army alone went from 1% of revenue in 2018 to 16% today and was 30% of all revenue growth in 2019.

BIG JUMP IN GOVERNMENT REVENUE IN 2020

Source: Palantir S-1

To drive our point home, government revenue increased from 45% of sales in 1H2019 to 53% in 1H2020.

COVID HAS ACTUALLY INCREASED GOV’T CONCENTRATION

Source: Palantir S-1

Corporate diversification is only in the early stages which could keep growth from showing the slow and steady results investors expect from SaaS companies.

#2: The Recent Improvement in Margins Likely Won’t Last

Palantir has seen a big increase in profit margins in the last six months compared to last year.

Investors new to the story may be tempted to pay a higher price for the stock to give the company credit for a new, higher-margin profile.

We think this would be a costly mistake.

If you dig a bit deeper you will see the margin increase was due to unsustainable cuts to operating expenses, not a change in the long-term profit potential.

The chart below shows that marketing spend as a % of revenue fell 25%, R&D spend fell 16% and salary expense fell 8%.

Palantir specifically called out the Coronavirus in their S-1 for keeping employees at home which has saved them lots of money on travel and marketing expenses.

In our opinion, these cost savings will largely reverse once the pandemic is over and sales and marketing ramps back up.

We are already seeing this with Marketing, R&D and G&A as a % of revenue up in the June quarter reversing some of the big fall in the quarter ending March.

The chart below shows that the improvement in the operating losses was almost exclusively due to lower spending on R&D and marketing, not a change in the underlying profitability of the business.

CUTS IN MARKETING AND PERSONEL SPENDING DROVE MARGIN GAINS IN 1H2020

Source: Palantir S-1

If costs rebound as the Coronavirus recedes it will slow or even reverse the recent profit improvements, denting the multiple investors are willing to pay and the stock price.

#3: To Grow You Need Clients, But Client Attrition is Concerning

Palantir’s average customer has been with the company for over six years, which is impressive and is typical among large government clients.

But to win these huge accounts, the company spends a lot more time selling the product before the customer will bite, six to nine months on average.

Also, the initial revenue from the contracts are tiny as Palantir proves the value of its software to customers who over time ramp up their usage and spending.

The initial losses are all fine if Palantir can hang onto clients for a long enough time, but recent data points to some lost customers as the Pandemic raged.

According to back of the envelope calculations below, Palantir went from 133 customers in 2019 to 125 today.

Palantir is not immune from the Coronavirus.

Based on my math they’ve lost around 8 customers in H1 2020 (comparing end of period 2020 customers with 2019 average) pic.twitter.com/RgXbz74y7Y

— Bread Crumbs Research (@CrowdedTradeCap) September 19, 2020

An article on Palantir’s push into Europe makes a concerning claim that of the 48 entities to have tried the service, 27 had already quit with the status of 8 others unknown.

Potentially losing 70% of your clients even if it is over a number of years doesn’t give us confidence in Palantir’s ability to hold onto clients long enough to generate solid profits from them.

Palantir’s business model gives up profits in the short term for cashflow on the backend, but it only works if customers don’t leave.

Given the lack of information around Palantir’s customer churn and 16 years of losses, we question if the profitability required to justify a $22+ billion valuation will ever arrive.

PALANTIR CHOSE A DIRECT LISTING INSTEAD OF AN IPO: WHAT’S THE DIFFERENCE?

Palantir management chose a different route to take the shares public than the traditional initial public offering (IPO) process.

The decision to pursue a direct listing over an IPO could have potentially huge implications for the future price of the stock.

The biggest practical difference between an IPO and a direct listing is that Palantir will not set an official price for the shares before trading begins.

In an IPO process, the management team travels all over the world meeting investors, explaining the story and drumming up buying interest.

Based on these meetings and conversations between the banks on the deal and their own clients, a price is decided on that balances supply, demand and the desire to see the stock price perform well, ie. go up, on the first day of trading.

A direct listing avoids all of this price discovery in favor of letting investor’s sort out the price for themselves through actual trades on the first day.

Now don’t think this means investors can just name any price they want for the stock until the equilibrium price is found.

Day 1 trades are still anchored to where the stock has been trading recently on the private markets.

Investors set their opening bids based on the private price of the stock, so these prior sales do have a big impact on early trading prices in a direct listing.

The market maker, the one who makes sure shares are trading hands in an orderly fashion, also sets a “reference price” on the first day based on buy and sell prices they are seeing.

This reference price also guides investors in what prices they offer on day 1.

Now the big difference between an IPO and a direct listing comes after the first public trade is done.

In a direct listing, all shareholders are free to sell their stock whenever they want at the prevailing market price.

This differs in a big way from an IPO where a majority of shares are restricted from trading for 180 days.

Direct listings can lead to more selling pressure than a typical IPO which means the stock price falls more in the month or two after going public than it would under an IPO process.

However, the market finds the stock price that balances supply and demand quicker than in an IPO where the share restrictions keep supply artificially low.

Looking at past direct listings will give us a flavor for how the Palantir stock price could perform in the days and months after it goes public.

HOW HAVE OTHER DIRECT LISTINGS PERFORMED?

There are two large direct listings we can use for reference here, Spotify and Slack.

Spotify went public in April 2018 while Slack’s direct listing was in April 2019.

Both companies did not put any restrictions on stock sales by employees and insiders, which is a big difference from the 180-day lockup Palantir is imposing on 80% of shares outstanding.

So how did buyers of the stocks on day 1 make out?

For Slack, the company gave investors a “reference price” before the direct listing of $26.

The stock opened at $42/sh, a 62% pop on day 1.

Spotify listed a reference price of $132/sh and also opened higher, up 25% to $165/sh.

So insiders were certainly happy but what happened to investor’s who bought at those prices?

In Slack’s case, the stock closed day 1 at $38.62/sh before eventually falling to $25 3 months later and bottoming at $22 in October, handing early investors a 40% loss.

SLACK’S FIRST 9 MONTHS PUBLIC

Source: http://www.ycharts.com

Spotify closed the first day at $149.01/sh and was at $169/sh 3 months later, however, the stock bottomed at $109/sh in December handing investors early losses just like Slack.

SPOTIFY’S FIRST 9 MONTHS PUBLIC

http;//www.ycharts.com

Based on the track record of the two largest direct listings so far, investors should not be buying Palantir until the stock has been publicly traded for at least six months.

HOW DOES GROWTH AND PROFITABILITY STACK UP?

High growth software companies are valued by the market for their growth above all.

The faster you can grow the more the market likes you and the higher multiple of revenue they are willing to pay.

Cashflow, profits, free cashflow, whatever your name for profitability, they all come in a distant second.

The most important steps you can take to figure out where Palantir should trade on day 1 and 10 years from now is to figure out how revenue growth stacks up against other software competitors.

Best growth = best multiple, its really that simple.

First, looking at the absolute size of Palantir, the company is on the larger side for a cloud software business.

The company has been in business for almost 20 years which explains its larger size.

PALANTIR REVENUE VS PEERS

Source: https://cloudedjudgement.substack.com/p/clouded-judgement-92520

Growth is more important than the absolute level of revenue however and here Palantir puts up a decent showing based on the last 12 months of revenue growth.

Growth is above average but out of the top quartile and forecast to slow to 35% in the next 12 months, from 38% in the last 12.

PALANTIR LTM REVENUE GROWTH BETTER THAN AVERAGE

Source: https://cloudedjudgement.substack.com/p/clouded-judgement-92520

Looking at Palantir’s profitability through the “rule of 40” metric is a better way to compare the company’s growth vs profitability.

The rule of 40 takes the LTM revenue growth rate and adds the free cashflow margin (CFO – CFI).

Palantir’s rule of 40 of 30%  is again below the median of 38%.

PALANTIR “RULE OF 40” VS THE SAAS GROUP

Source: https://cloudedjudgement.substack.com/p/clouded-judgement-92520

The company is still losing money while also growing slower than a majority of software peers which is concerning.

We need to see a pickup in growth or a big increase in the cashflow margin for this stock to be worth a purchase when there are already so many attractive SaaS stocks growing faster for not much more money.

24% OF SHARES CAN BE SOLD ON DAY 1

The performance of Palantir in the first few weeks after going public will depend on how many shares can be freely sold by insiders.

In the direct listings for Slack and Spotify, more than 80% of shares could be freely sold as soon as the stocks started trading.

Palantir management no doubt saw the weak stock performance of both companies in the months after listing and is trying to avoid the same outcome.

To do this they’ve gotten shareholders of 75% of the stock to agree not to sell their stock until 3 business days after financial results for the year ending 2020 are released.

This means Palantir’s “share unlock” date will fall sometime in late January 2021.

With only 25% of shares free to be sold immediately, we think Palatir’s stock will behave more like it would in a typical IPO.

The scarcity of shares due to the lockup will prevent the stock from falling as much as we saw in the Slack example (40% fall), until the share unlock in January when the stock price will likely take another leg down until the equilibrium price is reached.

PALANTIR WORTH $9-$12/SH BASED ON PRIVATE TRADES BUT WILL OPEN 50%-75% HIGHER.

Palantir’s recent private transactions will set the tone for how high the stock trades on its first day.

Looking at private transactions over the past nine months we see a big increase in the value investors are willing to pay leading up to the direct listing.

Palantir stock traded for as much as $11.50/sh in late August and this will likely serve at the “reference price” for the stock on day 1.

RECENT PRIVATE TRADING PRICE OF PALANTIR STOCK

Source: Palantir S-1

Palantir’s revenue growth is above average but not best in class and is expected to slow to slightly above 30% next year according to management.

Looking at group multiples, Palantir shouldn’t trade higher than 25x revenue which would still put it firmly in the high-growth valuation bucket even though growth is closer to the Mid-growth bucket.

SAAS REVENUE MULTIPLES COMPARED TO REVENUE GROWTH

Source: https://cloudedjudgement.substack.com/p/clouded-judgement-92520

With expected revenue growth of 35% over the next twelve months and our expected revenue multiple of 25x, we think the best case price for Palantir on the first day of trading will be $16-$20/sh.

Where in that range will all depend on how investors are feeling that day, if markets are down, the stock could be on the low end, if markets are green the stock could hit $20.

EXPECTED PRICE RANGE ON DAY 1

Source: Grizzle Estimates

The range of $16-$20 is merely a trading price in the middle of a software bubble and during a period when demand for the stock likely exceeds artificially low supply.

What matters longer-term for investors is what the stock is worth based on the fundamental cashflows of the business.

Here the stock is less compelling if it trades at $16/sh or above.

In the example below, we assume Palantir can keep growth steady at an average of 20% a year, which would put it in an elite league with the likes of Amazon, Microsoft, Salesforce, Adobe and other tech juggernauts.

This is a bullish forecast for a stock that was growing below 20% in 2017 and 2018.

Assuming a price to sales multiple of 8x-12x, in line with the long-term industry average and taking into account slower growth, Palantir isn’t worth more than $16.

Don’t forget that investors were valuing Palantir below $6.50/sh only three months ago and the stock has been at that price in private transactions for almost two years prior.

What has changed to justify a doubling in the value of this company?

Honesty we can’t find anything.

A $16 stock implies good growth, but most importantly significant profits over the next decade, compared to deep losses right now.

For Palantir to offer long term upside for investors who buy above $13/sh, the company will have to grow revenue at a 30% annual rate, or better, for the next 9 years, a heroic outcome based on how the business operates today.

THE FUNDAMENTAL VALUE OF PALANTIR

Source: Grizzle Estimates

Palantir is going to be an expensive stock out of the gate and investors should not be buying within the first six months until after the share unlock or if the stock falls below the reference price of $11.50.

Oil prices tumbled today amid growing concerns of less stimulus and COVID second-wave fears driving expectations for less demand amid rising supply (overwhelming any Armenia-regional war premia). WTI tumbled back below $40 intraday.

“If they were to put new restrictions on areas of New York, that would surprise the market a little bit and knock it down,” said Michael Hiley, head of over-the-counter energy trading at New York-based LPS Futures.

Last week’s surprisingly large draws in gasoline and distillates will be closely watched this week…

API

• Crude -831k (+1.9mm exp)

• Cushing +1.61mm

• Gasoline +1.623mm (-1.3mm exp)

• Distillates -3.424mm (-1.7mm exp)

Another surprise crude draw last week according to API data but a surprise gasoline product build offset some of the excitement…

Source: Bloomberg

The sell-off in equities, “which have been propping up oil prices recently, is exposing the oil markets’ weak fundamental backdrop,” said Ryan Fitzmaurice, commodities strategist at Rabobank.

The Covid-19 situation continues to weigh on the market, as “Europe has seen notable uptick in virus cases recently and even New York has seen cases rise just ahead of the start of the scheduled indoor dining restart tomorrow.”

WTI was hovering around $39 ahead of the API data and bounced modestly on the data…

We do note that the clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan have “kept markets on edge,” as an escalation in the conflict “could affect oil and gas exports from Azerbaijan,” said analysts at ICICI Bank.

Amid all this, Bloomberg reports that the chorus of downbeat oil demand predictions continued to grow. Three of the world’s biggest independent oil traders said consumption won’t meaningfully recover for at least another 18 months. That comes as Total SE said demand growth will end around 2030 and Pierre Andurand, chief investment officer and founder of Andurand Capital Management LLP, called for demand to peak in 2026.

Authored by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,

“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!”

– Upton Sinclair

Upton Sinclair was describing willful ignorance based upon who butters your bread. The rampant corruption of our society, as power has been consolidated into fewer and fewer hands, has resulted in our political, financial, cultural and economic systems being captured by a billionaire class who use their wealth to dictate the path we are forced to follow – or lose everything.

The sociopath class include the Silicon Valley social media titans, the billionaires running the six mainstream media companies, the rogue billionaires like Soros and Bloomberg who fund chaos and foment insurrection, the Deep State surveillance agency operatives like Clapper, Brennan, Comey and Mueller doing the bidding of the oligarchy, Wall Street criminals like Dimon, Paulson, and Blankfein doing god’s work, and last but certainly not least – Powell, Yellen, Bernanke and slimy Kashkari priming the pump for the never ending systematic pillaging of the nation’s wealth.

When you witness what passes for legislators at the Federal, State and Local levels, you must weep for our future. These pathetic excuses for leaders display none of the qualities a citizenry would want in those they have elected to manage our governmental affairs. They are bought off hacks, lacking any intellectual honesty, and selling their votes to the highest bidder. They lie, misinform, steal, and do the bidding of the monied interests who selected them because they are pliable dupes without an ounce of courage or forethought about the long-term best interests of the people they are supposed to be representing.

We are far from the republic Franklin and his fellow patriots gave us, and as Franklin foreshadowed, we were unable to keep it. As the fledgling republic devolved into a mob democracy, with the Federal government grabbing more power during the Civil War, the banking cabal seizing control of the nation’s finances in 1913 with the creation from Jekyll Island, the growth of the welfare state with FDR and LBJ doing the most damage, the metastasis of the military industrial complex, the elimination of privacy after the Patriot Act surveillance state execution, and now the final countdown to Armageddon as the state, media conglomerates, Wall Street criminals, mega-corporations, and billionaire oligarchs use this purposefully over-hyped flu pandemic to consolidate their power, wealth and control over a dumbed down, iGadget addicted, fearful, easily manipulated, compliant populace.

Most people go through life not questioning the motivations of their political, financial, economic and religious leaders. They naively believe they have achieved their positions of power because they have earned it through hard work, intellectual superiority, and moral authority. Most people are not sociopaths. They are just trying to steer around the potholes of life, raising families, earning a living, finding some enjoyment, leaving a positive legacy and trusting those in positions of power are looking out for their best interests.

They are wrapped up in their day to day existence, so are not vigilant in monitoring what political, financial and corporate power players are plotting to further reduce their liberties, freedom, and bank accounts. After decades of government school social indoctrination dumbing down of the masses, relentless propaganda propagated by the corporate media mouthpieces of the Deep State, endless technological and sports distractions, and being lured into crushing levels of debt by Wall Street and Madison Avenue, the masses are incapable of critically assessing how they have been systematically screwed by the ruling class.

Even with the self-imposed economic depression initiated by politicians, at the behest of captured self-proclaimed medical “experts” and college drop-out techno-geek billionaires (Bill Gates), resulting in tens of millions (mostly blue collar and service industry workers) being put out of work, there are still 147 million employed Americans. That’s up 14 million from the April pandemic low, but to provide some perspective, it’s at virtually the same level as late 2007 just before the Wall Street/Fed created financial collapse.

Considering there are 260 million working age Americans in the country, with 26 million employed part time, 9 million self-employed and 21 million government workers paid for by the 91 million full-time wage earners, you understand why wage earners can be intimidated into “not understanding something” because their livelihood depends upon them pretending to not understand the truth.

The propaganda phrase “we’re in this together” is another Orwellian doublespeak example, as there are 10.7 million less private industry workers than a year ago, but the number of government workers is amazingly up by almost 200,000. So much for sharing the pain. The other dichotomy is between college graduate white collar workers who can work from home and the mostly low paid service industry workers who “serve” the white-collar workers. The number of college graduate workers is up by 1 million in the last year versus down 9.3 million for all other workers. These pandemic lockdowns have devastated the job prospects of blacks, teenagers, and anyone working in the hospitality industry. We are not in this together.

The Federal Reserve actions have only benefited their Wall Street constituents and the .1% who own most of the financial assets in this country. The poor, blue collar workers, waitresses, bartenders, savers, and senior citizens (who avoided being sentenced to death in nursing homes by Cuomo and his fellow Democrat governors) have been thrown under the bus once again. The rich get richer and the poor are thrown a $600 bone and told to obey and stay like a good dog.

The Sinclair quote is even more apt in relation to the latest narrative being used by the powers that be to divide us and create chaos. The false story line of “systematic racism” is being used as a cudgel to beat us into submission and compliance. The only thing systematic is the organized and well-funded traitorous endeavor by Soros and his ilk to undermine the basic moral tenets of our society in order to institute a Marxist new world order in the U.S., Europe, Australia, New Zealand, and eventually the entire world.

They want to destroy our past by tearing down statues and promoting fake history like the NYT promoted 1619 Project. They publicize and promote division and racial strife by publicizing the few murders of blacks by whites, while ignoring the daily slaughter of blacks by other blacks in Chicago, Baltimore, Philadelphia and the other Democrat run urban ghetto kill zones. The lawlessness and savagery in black inner cities with black on black crime is ignored by the left-wing politicians who run these cities and their media mouthpieces. There is clearly something systemic about what has happened, but it’s not due to systemic racism.

The term ‘systemic’ has been in vogue lately because the propagandized narrative since a black felon dying of a fentanyl overdose was videotaped being kneeled upon by a white cop with a history of abusing citizens has been “systemic racism” is the single most important problem in America, keeping black people from getting ahead and resulting in them fearing for their lives, as cops and white people target them because they’re black. Once the narrative was unleashed, the leftist mainstream media carried the ball with a misinformation campaign, and the domestic terrorist organizations BLM and ANTIFA were funded with millions of dollars from Soros and other leftist billionaires to riot, loot, burn and destroy cities across America in the name of racial justice.

Corporate America latched onto the narrative, along with sports leagues, Hollywood elites, and every virtue signaling toady in America. Anyone questioning the narrative with facts is cancelled, attacked and destroyed by the mob of willfully ignorant lemmings. A white person’s salary now depends upon them apologizing for being white and kneeling before BLM and begging for mercy because they are systematically racist.

The dictionary definition of systematic is:

done or acting according to a fixed plan or system; methodical in procedure or plan; presented or formulated as a coherent body of ideas or principles.

The “systematic racism” narrative has absolutely no factual basis. Are there racists in our society? Sure. There are white racists, black racists, Latino racists, and Asian racists. Harvard, Yale and other elite Ivy League institutions have been cited by Federal authorities for racist policies against Asians and whites.

If systematic racism is keeping blacks from succeeding why are there numerous examples of whites pretending to be minorities (Pocahontas Warren, Jessica Krug, Rachel Dolezal, Shaun King) in order to get an advantage in their career advancement?

Since the implementation of LBJ’s Great Society, trillions of taxpayer funds have been spent to boost the lives of black America, with a phenomenally detrimental impact on their lives. The creation of the welfare state has enslaved the black community in dependence and squalor. Incentivizing out of wedlock children has resulted in over 70% of all black children being raised in fatherless households.

Even though urban school districts spend $12,000 to $16,000 per student, the majority of blacks are matriculated into society unable to add, subtract, spell or speak the English language. Their urban enclaves are drug infested homicide zones, with young fatherless black men killing each other at an astounding rate. Chicago has at least 50 shootings every weekend, with nary a white shooter. It seems black lives don’t matter to other blacks. But, when a black rapist is shot by police while reaching for a knife, the BLM and ANTIFA terrorists use it as an excuse to loot, riot, kill white Trump supporters, kill cops, and generally act like savages.

This entire contrived fairy tale shows all the signs of being systematic, but the methodical plan being implemented has nothing to do with racism or justice. The Davos elitist lords have been emboldened by their success since 9/11, as they have utilized every crisis as an opportunity to further their agenda of consolidating power, wealth, and control over the plebs.

This pandemic “crisis” is being used as an opportunity to reset the world in a manner most beneficial for the Davos billionaires, by exploiting pandemic fear, engineered social chaos, a fake climate crisis and economic anxiety to implement a corporate fascist world order, disguised as a green new deal, MMT, socialist paradise. The apparently incomprehensible actions of left wing politicians, DA’s, the corporate media, surveillance state bad actors, compliant central bankers, and emboldened billionaires over the last few months begin to make sense when you realize it is part of the plan.

As we have learned over the last decade, conspiracy theorists have been proven right, time after time, as a coup against a duly elected president has been revealed through texts and incriminating documents; Snowden and Assange revealed the illegal surveillance program conducted by unaccountable spy agencies; JP Morgan and other criminal banks have admitted to rigging precious metals, bond and stock markets; Soros has funneled tens of millions to elect far left District Attorneys who refuse to enforce the law and prosecute violent criminals; a captured left wing judge attempts to prosecute an innocent man who was setup by Obama’s FBI hacks; and Bloomberg is using his billions to buy the votes of tens of thousands of black and Hispanic ex-convicts in Florida to steal the presidential election.

The selection of a senile handsy blunder zombie as a presidential candidate is clearly a Trojan horse to install Kamala Harris (who had 2% popularity among Democrats) as the evil conduit to inflict the Davos master plan upon our country.

“Reason is poor propaganda when opposed by the yammering, unceasing lies of shrewd and evil and self-serving men.”

– Robert A. Heinlein

I consider myself a rational fact-based person who tries to seek the truth and live my life in a manner that would make my deceased dad and my children proud. My negligible efforts, over the last twelve years, to try and expose the lies and corruption of those wielding power over our lives seems like a drop in this ocean of deceit. My message is only able to reach the few who want to know the truth, while the unceasing propaganda and lies of powerful evil men is broadcast to the masses through mainstream and social media conglomerates to manipulate their emotions and lead them on a path to destruction.

This bad flu outbreak has been seized upon by the shrewd, evil, self-serving men who rule the world to test their universal basic income scheme, pushing green new deal idiocy, consolidating commerce and profits into fewer mega-corporations, waging a war on the white middle class, tyrannically imposing job crushing government lockdown mandates, and dehumanizing the populace by forcing mask compliance in order to gain admittance to places of business.

In Part 2 of this article I will demolish the mask narrative, describe the systematic destruction of small businesses, enlighten you about the true purpose of the Federal Reserve, and try to make sense of what might happen as the climax of this Fourth Turning rapidly descends upon an unprepared nation.

*  *  *

The corrupt establishment will do anything to suppress sites like the Burning Platform from revealing the truth. The corporate media does this by demonetizing sites like mine by blackballing the site from advertising revenue. If you get value from this site, please keep it running with a donation.

COVID concerns (NFL cases and NYC positivity rates), a lack of stimulus progression, and the uncertainty ahead of tonight’s presidential debate weighed on stocks and the dollar, but sparked a safe-haven bid under bonds and precious metals…

The machines tried as usual to get back to even but with no lasting luck (weakness into Asia close and European close and US close…

And the 50DMAs were tested and rejected…

“Where’s my money!”

Gold futures topped $1900…

Gold bounced off its 100DMA…

Source: Bloomberg

As Real yields tumbled, precious metals were bid…

Source: Bloomberg

Election uncertainty continued to surge…

Source: Bloomberg

With the VIX curve notably perturbed…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar leaked lower again today…

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds were bid very modestly on the day with 10Y Yields back to A 63bps handle…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were lower on the day…

Source: Bloomberg

Silver futures back above $24…

Which pushed the Gold/Silver ratio back below 80x…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, as Bloomberg notes, oil trading is grinding to a halt with the market concerned about the coronavirus pandemic’s impact on demand and supply cuts from OPEC+ producers.

Source: Bloomberg

And as the month comes to an end, we note that the USDollar is outperforming gold in September by the most since Trump was elected…

Source: Bloomberg

Still, it’s probably best not to get too excited. Year to date, “in terms of gold, the dollar is declining over 20%,” said Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike McGlone. “I see the metal building a base around $1,800 and resuming the rally above $2,000.”

Source: Bloomberg

Offering perhaps the clearest indication yet of his priorities as a Democratic governor of one of the most liberal states in the country, NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo just suggested Tuesday that he might send in the national guard to help pick up trash around the city, infuriating critics who questioned his eagerness to send in the National Guard to act as glorified garbagemen, despite his unwillingness to deploy them during the unrest that followed the killing of George Floyd.

During the lockdown and the months that followed, trash has piled up on some NYC sidewalks. While kvetching about the growing trash pileup, the governor complained that he didn’t know “what was going on” in NYC – which is run by his political rival, Mayor Bill de Blasio –  and claimed that he had offered to send in the National Guard to come pick up the garbage if the city couldn’t handle the job.

Complaints about negligent trash pickup have piled up alongside the mountains of garbage, largely thanks to a $106 million cut to the budget of the city’s Department of Sanitation. Complaints about trash piling up in city parks have doubled since last summer, according to Patch.com.

City politicians have demanded the mayor address the problem, which primarily impacts low-income neighborhoods, officials have argued.

If the “New York City Department of Sanitation and their resources can’t do it for one reason or another,” the national guard will be sent in, Cuomo claimed. Cuomo made the remarks during a presentation devoted to his “New York City Stabilization and Recovery Strategy,” where the governor outlined ideas on how to improve everything from schools to the city’s homelessness crisis.

“This is a public health pandemic — cleanliness matters,” Cuomo insisted. the trash comment wasn’t the only dig at de Blasio.

Pretty pointed dig at @NYCMayor in @NYGovCuomo‘s slideshow today pic.twitter.com/Ub2khyxBio

— Julia Marsh (@juliakmarsh) September 29, 2020

Many NYers would probably agree.

NYC is a shell of its former self.I walked to the Post Office this morning,trash all over the place and in that 6 block walk I was hassled for $$ from 7 different panhandlers. NYC might be lost for quite some time.

— Christopher Conway (@biscuitopequeno) September 29, 2020

However, some on Twitter took issue with the governor’s remarks, claiming the National Guard shouldn’t be co-opted for something like picking up the trash left behind by the Department of Sanitation.

I would respectfully decline if I was in charge of the Natl Guard. This is NOT an appropriate use of the guard. https://t.co/QA6nKXiLzj

— Bring back the crusades (@rocketwolf) September 29, 2020

Cuomo sends NG to Collect NYC Garbage-

Don’t Forget to Collect Cuomo & de Blasio. https://t.co/tQjfsm2nUn

— . (@Thinking4UrSelf) September 29, 2020

1) NY must pay for their labor 2) Gov has them do garbage not stop unrest tells you his priorities 3) THIS is what Cuomo thinks of Military. https://t.co/IKyxNjLENH

— John A. Jensen (@FixTheNation) September 29, 2020

Cuomo’s presentation comes as NYC’s new COVID-19 hotspots have pushed its positive test rate to its highest level in months.

Authored by ‘Cockburn’ via The Spectator,

With the first presidential debate now just hours away, President Trump continues to insist that Joe Biden take a drug test. Trump’s none-too-subtle insinuation is that the former vice president is so mentally frail that he cannot hope to match the vaulting intellect of the 45th president of the United States on the debate stage.

It’s a peculiar form of Trumpian baiting – something the President has probably learned from the world of Mixed Martial Arts – or perhaps the product of a guilty conscience. Trump himself famously sniffed his way through his first debate with Hillary Clinton four years ago, and there’s been plenty of speculation over the years that the President consumes medicinal substances to combat some form of attention-deficit disorder.

Cockburn won’t weigh in on the specifics. But if Biden were to use drugs for tonight’s performance, which ones should he take? Because make no mistake, Biden should absolutely be taking drugs prior to Tuesday’s debate.

Pro athletes all take performance enhancing drugs, after all, and winning a presidential election is at least as important as hitting 40 home runs or making the Pro Bowl, or something.

Fortunately, Cockburn is a writer, which means he has countless friends who are perpetually in one sort of drug-induced haze or another. They quickly supplied suggestions.

1. Aricept

Aricept is used to enhance mental acuity in patients suffering from Alzheimer’s or vascular dementia. That will certainly be handy for keeping Biden from drooling on the podium. However, Aricept also has the side effect of increasing libido, and has been found to correlate with inappropriate sexual behaviors in those who take it.

did putin tell biden to sniff every woman he comes across pic.twitter.com/lfk0UqznTm

— Elon Mollusk (@minvskv) May 5, 2020

…actually, Biden may have been taking this drug for a long time.

2. Fentanyl

This may seem like an odd choice. Fentanyl causes mood swings, irritation and heart failure — and the last thing Joe Biden needs is to fall asleep on stage. It would be an interesting statement in favor of globalization, however, since most Fentanyl is synthesized by our friends in China. And what better way for Biden to exhibit his legendary ‘empathy’ than by showing America’s opioid addicts that he knows what it’s like?

3. Ecstasy

Arriving Tuesday night amped on MDMA would offer a host of benefits to Biden. Besides keeping him cheerful and upbeat for the cameras, if Biden is caught, he can easily pivot in a positive direction: by taking a party drug, he will disavow one of his tough-on-crime achievements, the 2003 RAVE Act. Cockburn doesn’t understand how contributing to the dramatic collapse of crime rates nationwide is a bad thing, but in 2020 everybody is convinced that it is. Biden debating while hopped upon Molly would go a long way toward showing his remorse. ‘Loved-up’, Biden would also show a winning spirit of magnanimity towards Donald Trump, which might help sway independents.

Finally, for years Biden was known as the ‘senator from MBNA’ due to his pro-credit card activism in Congress. If he rebrands as the senator on MDMA, at the least everyone will be really confused.

4. Steroids

It’s not well-known, but then-Sen. Biden also played a key role in banning the recreational use of anabolic steroids. It’s time for Biden’s position to evolve. Putting on 10-20 pounds of lean muscle mass will alleviate concerns about Biden looking old and frail, while also providing a leg up if he and Trump decide to settle their differences through personal combat instead of rhetoric.

5. Adrenochrome

Hunter S. Thompson’s favorite would provide a mountain of psychological benefits to Biden. By inducing thought disorder and derealization, Biden will cease to believe physical reality. That in turn will produce exciting policy insights and a blunted affect that voters will mistake for sangfroid. Even better, though, adrenochrome will be easy to get. While previously obtainable only at the finest pizza arcades, today almost unlimited amounts of the drug are harvested in human sacrifice rituals held by Satan-worshipping pedophiles like Hillary Clinton — or so Cockburn is told. Biden will be able to get more than enough of the drug to power him through all three of the debates, and thanks to the drug’s youth-preservation qualities, he’ll be able to serve a full eight (or 12 — or 200) years as president.

6. Bath salts

Bath salts wouldn’t do much for Biden’s debate coherence. They may, however, trigger a psychotic break that would cause him to assault Trump on stage and try to eat him. This would demonstrate Biden’s vigor and determination to lead the country, and if he does in fact consume Trump, Mike Pence would likely prove a far less formidable adversary.