The battle to claw back a significant percentage of the $50 trillion is just beginning.
Do you hear the pathetic bleating of America’s billionaires and their army of toadies? If not, you soon will, for a remarkable report has been released that documents the $50 trillion in earnings that’s been transferred to the Financial Aristocracy from the bottom 90% of American households in the past 45 years.
The report was prepared by the RAND Corporation, and has a suitably neutral title: Trends in Income From 1975 to 2018. (The full report can be downloaded for free.)
Longtime readers know I’ve reported on the astounding increase in America’s economic inequality for the past 15 years, and addressed the eventual banquet of consequences this imbalanced, destabilizing state of affairs will serve up.
But with few exceptions, the corporate media has ignored this fundamental reality of American life, and blown off the consequences as easily ignored speculation by marginalized bloggers and commentators. (“Would somebody please shadow-ban these sites going on and on about soaring inequality? Thank you, Facebook, Google and Twitter–we’ll return the favor directly.”)
The extreme rarity of paragraphs like these in the corporate media cannot be over-emphasized. The corporate media has carried water for the billionaires and America’s Financial Aristocracy for decades. (No surprise, given that the vast majority of America’s media / social media is owned by the billionaires and Financial Aristocracy. Why bite the hand that feeds you, especially when the risk of losing your career is so high?)
Excerpted from the time.com article linked above:
There are some who blame the current plight of working Americans on structural changes in the underlying economy–on automation, and especially on globalization. According to this popular narrative, the lower wages of the past 40 years were the unfortunate but necessary price of keeping American businesses competitive in an increasingly cutthroat global market. But in fact, the $50 trillion transfer of wealth the RAND report documents has occurred entirely within the American economy, not between it and its trading partners. No, this upward redistribution of income, wealth, and power wasn’t inevitable; it was a choice–a direct result of the trickle-down policies we chose to implement since 1975.
We chose to cut taxes on billionaires and to deregulate the financial industry. We chose to allow CEOs to manipulate share prices through stock buybacks, and to lavishly reward themselves with the proceeds. We chose to permit giant corporations, through mergers and acquisitions, to accumulate the vast monopoly power necessary to dictate both prices charged and wages paid. We chose to erode the minimum wage and the overtime threshold and the bargaining power of labor. For four decades, we chose to elect political leaders who put the material interests of the rich and powerful above those of the American people.
That this level of incendiary outrage is now seeping into the mainstream media tells us that the bill for America’s $50 Trillion gluttony of inequality is long overdue and the pendulum of reckoning will swing to political, social and economic extremes equal to the extremes of wealth and income inequality engineered by America’s Financial Aristocracy and their toadies / lackeys in government, the Federal Reserve, Wall Street, Silicon Valley and the media.
The rallying cry to claw back a significant percentage of the $50 trillion is just beginning. The billionaires have the money and power, of course, and the best government that money can buy plus the loyalty of a vast army of well-paid toadies, lackeys, factotums and apparatchiks.
But once the citizens no longer accept their servitude, the pendulum will gather momentum. America’s Financial Aristocracy has reached extremes not just of wealth-income-power inequality, but extremes of hubris. Their faith in luxury bug-out estates / private islands is evidence that even if the way of the Tao is reversal, they’ll have their private bodyguards and stashes of fuel and other essentials.
The clawback might not be as easy to rebuff as they anticipate, nor will the pendulum swing that’s just starting necessarily arrive at the opposite extreme in the orderly, predictable fashion they’re accustomed to controlling.
Here’s a few of the many charts you’ve seen over the years here that illustrate rising inequality:
Global Stocks Plunge On Bank, Election, Virus Fears; Treasuries, Dollar Spike Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/21/2020 – 07:50
We said that futures trading ahead of the Monday open would be “fun“, and sure enough they did not disappoint.
Global markets tumbled on Monday, as S&P futures slid below 3,300 after failing to hold 50DMA support on Friday, and with European stocks falling the most since July as investors worried about renewed covid lockdowns across European countries and a report detailing suspicious transactions at international banks, with a lack of U.S. stimulus and concerns about how the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg would impact what are already set to be extremely contested elections also hit sentiment.
U.S. stock index futures dropped 1.8% on Monday hit by bank stocks following media reports that several global banks moved sums of allegedly illicit funds over nearly two decades. Shares in JPMorgan Chase and Bank of New York Mellon Corp fell 4% and 3.3%, respectively, after a after a report by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists that said lenders “kept profiting from powerful and dangerous players” in the past two decades even after the U.S. imposed penalties. HSBC Holdings Plc fell to the lowest since 1995 and European bank shares slumped (more here).
Shares of airlines, hotels and cruise operators led declines in premarket trading, tracking their European peers as the UK signaled the possibility of a second national lockdown. Marriott International, Hilton Worldwide and Hyatt Hotels Corp dropped between 1.5% and 3.6%, while casino operators Wynn Resorts, MGM Resorts International and Las Vegas Sands Corp shed between 2.7% and 6.0%. Tech giants including Apple, Facebook and Amazon.com which had dominated Wall Street’s rally since April, slid between 1.5% and 2.6% in early deals.
Nikola crashed 27.9% after its founder Trevor Milton stepped down as executive chairman, as the U.S. electric-truck maker battles allegations from a short-seller that it misled investors and automakers. General Motors which took an 11% stake in Nikola for about $2 billion earlier this month, slipped 3.7%.
Another round of business restrictions would also threaten a nascent recovery in the wider economy, analysts said, and could spark a flight from equities. The first round of lockdowns in March had led the benchmark S&P 500 to suffer its worst monthly decline since the global financial crisis.
“The market remains concerned about the broader risk emulating from the U.S: Covid, the Supreme Court fight and the upcoming presidential elections,” said Peter Rosenstreich, head of market strategy at Swissquote Bank SA. “With U.S. tech stocks looking weak, the need to jump right into U.S. assets feels less critical.”
The MSCI world equity index was down 0.5%. European indexes opened lower, with the pan-European STOXX 600 down 1.7% at its lowest in nearly two weeks. London’s FTSE 100 was at a two-week low, down 2.4% and Germany’s DAX fell 2%, led by banking shares which slid after a media report on how several global banks moved large sums of allegedly illicit funds over nearly two decades. HSBC shares tumbled to a 25-year low in Hong Kong.
Investors have also turned more cautious about Europe following a sharp uptick in new COVID-19 cases. European countries including Denmark, Greece and Spain have introduced new restrictions on activity. According to Reuters, Britain is considering a second national lockdown as new cases rise by at least 6,000 per day. Germany’s health minister said the rising new infections in countries like France, Austria and the Netherlands is worrying. Investors will be looking ahead to flash PMI data on Wednesday for the first hints of how economies have fared in September.
“Concerns are rising that the summer recovery is probably as good as it gets when it comes to the recent rebound in economic activity,” wrote Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK. “This reality combined with the growing realisation that a vaccine remains many months away, despite President (Donald) Trump’s claims to the contrary, has made investors increasingly nervous, as we head into an autumn that could see lockdowns reimposed.”
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell, led by materials and finance, after rising in the last session. The Hang Seng Index slid 1.5%, while equities in China and Australia also retreated. Taiwan’s dollar strengthened to a level not seen in seven years.The Shanghai Composite Index retreated 0.6%, with Sanxiang Advanced and Shandong Shida posting the biggest slides.
Emerging-market stocks and currencies headed for their biggest declines this month as surging coronavirus cases and uncertainty about additional US fiscal support dented demand for risky assets. The Mexican peso and South African rand led the retreat among peers as the U.S. political battle over who will be the next Supreme Court justice – following the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg six weeks before Election Day – also weighed on sentiment. South Africa’s stock market was the worst performer, with the main benchmark headed for its longest losing streak since May 2019. The average spread on developing-nation dollar debt widened by 2 basis points.
Seven members of the Fed will speak this week – including chairman Jerome Powell appearing before Congressional committees – so investors will be looking for hints to determine the dollar’s direction. In a House Financial Services Committee hearing on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are expected to speak about the need for more stimulus.
“There’re too much expectations about U.S. economic resilience,” said Fabrizio Fiorini, chief investment officer at Pramerica SGR SpA. “There is more selloff to come. Election risk is underestimated.”
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index reversed early losses and extended Friday’s advance to rise against all Group-of-10 peers apart from the safe-haven Japanese yen which was in its sixth consecutive session of gains versus the dollar, up around 0.4% at 104.185. Japan has public holidays on Monday and Tuesday this week, meaning volumes are thin in Asian trading. The euro dipped against the dollar, sliding to $1.1791 while the safe Swiss franc rose against both the dollar and euro.
The yuan headed for a third straight daily drop, the longest slide since July, as the greenback advanced. The onshore yuan slipped 0.14% to 6.7793 a dollar as of 5:53 p.m. in Shanghai after earlier rising as much as 0.2%. A measure of the dollar’s strength rose in the afternoon as risk appetite took a hit on concern that the climbing number of virus cases across Europe could lead to travel restrictions and cripple an economic recovery. Despite the retreat over past few days, the onshore yuan has surged 4.3% in the third quarter, on pace for the best performance on record. The rally has come as the greenback is set for its weakest quarter in a decade and amid investor optimism over China economy.
The Turkish lira continued to plumb record lows with Moody’s adding more fuel to the fire warning that the country has almost depleted its buffers against a Balance of Payments crisis.
In rates, Treasuries jumped after risk sentiment deteriorated in global markets. Yields were lower by 5.5bp across long-end of the curve, flattening 2s10s, 5s30s by 3.1bp and 3.5bp; 10-year yields richer by 3.8bp at 0.655%. Treasuries bull flatten from London open after cash markets closed in Asia for Japan holiday. Risk-off backdrop supports long-end of the curve with S&P e-minis lower by 1.6% and Estoxx 50 dropping 3% over European morning session. U.S. 2-, 5-, 7-year sales due this week for comb. $155b, while Fed chair Powell is due to speak three times. In Europe, the benchmark 10-year German bund yield was down 2 basis points at -0.507% with most high-rated euro zone government bond yields down by a similar amount. The European Central Bank will review how long its emergency pandemic bond-purchase scheme should go on, the Financial Times reported. The European Council meets in a summit on Thursday and Friday this week.
Elsewhere, oil prices fell, with Brent crude down 1.8% at $42.39 a barrel while WTI was down 1.9% at $40.34 a barrel. Gold prices slumped, hit by the rising dollar, with spot gold down to $1,931 per ounce at 730am ET>
Data include the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. No major earnings are expected.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures down 1.8% to 3,262.75
STOXX Europe 600 down 2.2% to 360.69
MXAP down 0.6% to 172.88
MXAPJ down 1% to 563.47
Nikkei up 0.2% to 23,360.30
Topix up 0.5% to 1,646.42
Hang Seng Index down 2.1% to 23,950.69
Shanghai Composite down 0.6% to 3,316.94
Sensex down 0.9% to 38,482.09
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.7% to 5,822.62
Kospi down 1% to 2,389.39
Brent futures down 2% to $42.29/bbl
German 10Y yield fell 2.6 bps to -0.511%
Euro down 0.3% to $1.1807
Italian 10Y yield rose 0.7 bps to 0.756%
Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.2 bps to 0.283%
Gold spot down 0.5% to $1,940.89
U.S. Dollar Index up 0.3% to 93.19
Top Overnight News
U.S. deaths related to Covid-19 approached 200,000 and the nation’s new cases rose in line with a one-week average. Former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb said he expects the U.S. to experience “at least one more cycle” of the virus in the fall and winter
The dollar’s weakest quarter in a decade may get even worse as investors respond to the effects that massive American equity-market gains have had on the composition of their portfolios
The European Union will unleash as many green bonds as the world issued last year, testing the level of investor interest in financing a shift toward cleaner economies
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden blasted Republican efforts to speed through a replacement for the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the Supreme Court, warning that such a process would “inflict irreversible damage” on the country
Britain is at a “critical point” in the coronavirus pandemic, Prime Minister Boris Johnson will be told on Monday, as concern mounts that a second lockdown may be needed to stop the renewed spread of the disease.
The European Central Bank has launched a review of its pandemic bond-buying program to consider how long it should continue and whether its exceptional flexibility should be extended to older programs, the Financial Times reported, citing two Governing Council members that it didn’t identify
New Zealand cabinet has confirmed that gathering limits in Auckland will ease from Sept 23 while they will be lifted entirely for the rest of the country tonight, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said Monday
Oil steadied following its biggest weekly gain since June as a lack of clarity over the global energy demand recovery was balanced by the possibility that Saudi Arabia could press for more OPEC+ output cuts
A quick look at global markets courtesy of NewsSquawk:
Asian equity markets were subdued and US equity futures traded choppy after last Friday’s losses on Wall St amid quadruple witching and continued tech woes, with risk appetite also dampened by holiday conditions as Japanese participants observe a 4-day weekend. ASX 200 (-0.7%) was negative with losses in metal miners and financials underperforming in the broad weakness across its sectors aside from Health Care and Energy, while KOSPI (-1.0%) swung from gains and losses on varied COVID-19 headlines with South Korea to extend level 2 social distancing curbs by an additional week but will also be distributing emergency funds from the 4th extra budget within days. Hang Seng (-2.0%) and Shanghai Composite (-0.6%) were downbeat with HSBC shares slumping to a 25-year low in Hong Kong after a leaked document noted that the bank had permitted GBP 62mln to be moved to Hong Kong in suspicious transactions during 2013-2014 despite being warned by a regulator, while Standard Chartered also declined after being implicated by the ‘FinCEN’ leak, and other reports noted concerns HSBC and Standard Chartered could be frozen out of the US banking system in the event of a further escalation US-China tensions. Elsewhere, Tencent shares were pressured amid uncertainty regarding its US future despite a California judge halting President Trump’s ban on WeChat downloads, while weekend news that President Trump gave his blessing to the TikTok-Oracle-Walmart deal, also did little to spur risk appetite.
Top Asian News
Hedge Funds Raise Long Aussie Bets to 2018 High on China Rebound
Amundi Sanguine on Indonesian Bonds on Attractive Real Yields
China Tried to Dramatize Its Handling of the Virus. It Backfired
SCG Packaging Seeks to Raise Up to $1.27 Billion in Thai IPO
Stocks in Europe see deep losses across the board (Euro Stoxx 50 -3%) as the region coat-tailed on the downbeat APAC handover before extending on losses amid an intensifying risk averse tone and a number of sector-specific factors. Firstly, Travel & Leisure resides as the marked underperformer as the resurging cases across Europe trigger warning bells for the sector, with some of the region’s worst performers including the likes IAG (-12%), Tui (-8.6%), easyJet (-8.4%), Carnival (-8.0%), Lufthansa (-7.7%) and Ryanair (-7.1%). Secondly, the European banking sector plumbs the depths in light of a leaked US government document accused HSBC (-5%), Standard Chartered (-4.4%), Barclays (-6.2%), Deutsche Bank (-5.6%), JPM (-3.6% premkt) and BNY Mellon (-2.5% premkt) of moving large sums of illegal cash for shady characters and criminal networks. The documents center around the number of SAR’s (Suspicious Activity Reports) sent to US authorities between 1999 and 2017. The Basic Resources and Oil & Gas sectors are also among the laggards. As such, the UK’s FTSE 100 (-3.4%) underperforms the region despite a softer Sterling, given its heavy exposure to the aforementioned sectors. In terms of other movers and shakers, United Internet (-24%) and 1&1 Drillisch (-27%) reside as the biggest losers in Europe after cutting their respective FY EBTIDA guidance, whilst their spat with Telefonica (-3.6%) intensified over its subsidiary Telefonica Deutschland (-3.4) being accused of raising user costs significantly from July. Elsewhere, Rolls-Royce (-8.5%) holds onto its losses amid reports that the group is planning to raise as much as GBP 2.5bln to brace itself for another demand decline for aircraft engines. As such, Leonardo (-6.0%) continues falling despite an early halt, whilst Safran (-4.4%) is also pressured in sympathy. Finally, the Norwegian government has proposed that its Sovereign Wealth Fund should invest more within the US stock market and less within Europe.
Top European News
Unilever’s Dutch Investors Said to Approve Single Headquarters
European Stocks Drop Most Since July as HSBC Leads Bank Slump
Sweden Loosens Purse Strings With Virus Stimulus Budget
U.K. House Prices Up Most Since 2016 as Britons Seek More Space
In FX, although the Dollar has regained some poise amidst more pronounced risk aversion at the start of a new week, Usd/Jpy continues to decline alongside Yen crosses in the absence of Japanese market participants for ‘Old Age Day’. The headline pair has now breached another key chart if not major technical level in the form of July 31’s 104.20 low and there is little in the way of 104.00 to stop a 250+ pip cumulative fall from this month’s early peaks, especially given another holiday on Tuesday (Autumnal Equinox). However, it remains to be seen whether a 103.00 print provokes some verbal intervention from the MoF, and for now greater safe-haven demand for the Jpy is keeping the Usd index relatively capped beyond 93.000 within a 93.322-92.746 band.
AUD/CAD/CHF – All succumbing to the increasingly sour tone and deterioration in broad sentiment as the Aussie loses 0.7300+ status vs its US counterpart, the Loonie retreats through 1.3200 with added fuel from a reversal in crude prices and the Franc falls back below 0.9100, albeit holding above 1.0800 against the Euro following latest weekly Swiss bank sight deposit balances showing perhaps surprise declines ahead of the SNB. Question is, are these coincidental or significant in advance of a more official shift in policy to be revealed at Thursday’s quarterly review?
NZD/EUR/GBP – The Kiwi is back-pedalling further from Friday’s near 0.6800 peak vs its US peer and 1.0800+ apex on the Aud/Nzd cross even though NZ PM Adern scaled down the country’s COVID-19 alert level outside of Auckland again, while the Euro is retesting bids/support around 1.1800 and Sterling has recoiled over a big figure to sub-1.2850 on the ongoing rise of the pandemic across Europe.
SCANDI/EM – A sea of red as risk assets tumble, while the aforementioned downturn in oil takes a heavier toll on the Norwegian Crown compared to the Swedish Krona that seems to be deriving some traction from upbeat commentary by the nation’s Finance Minister. Similarly, the Yuan is drawing a degree of comfort from a steady PBoC Cny fixing, net liquidity injection and unchanged loan prime rates to offset other less favourable issues like the ongoing Sino-US spat and reports from China’s top infectious disease expert warning that a 2nd wave is inevitable. Conversely, diplomatic strains and the retracement in Brent are undermining the Lira and Rouble again, while the Rand has unwounded all and more of its post-SARB gains.
In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures continue to decline with losses driven by the broader risk averse sentiment coupled with a firmer Dollar and the prospect of dwindling demand given the resurgence of COVID-19 prompting talks of renewed lockdown measures. Furthermore, on the supply side of the equation, Libya’s NOC said it will lift the force majeure at ports and facilities that were deemed safe, with the gradual return of Libyan oil raising questions in terms of an OPEC quota for the country. WTI Nov resides around USD 40.50/bbl, having declined from a high ~41.50/bbl, whilst Brent Nov hovers just under USD 42.50/bbl vs. a high of USD 43.30/bbl. Another thing to keep on the radar – unconfirmed twitter reports noted that Saudi King Salman is reportedly in a critical condition, albeit nothing has been seen since on this front, with participants likely to dwell on the future of the Kingdom’s oil policy should he be replaced. Elsewhere, precious metal prices succumb to the Dollar, with spot gold now losing ground below the USD 1950/oz mark having traded on either side of the level in APAC hours. Spot silver meanwhile extends losses below USD 26.50/oz after printing a high just shy of USD 27/oz earlier in the session. In terms of base metals, LME copper is pressured by the broader equity sell-off and the firmer Buck, whilst Dalian iron ore futures slipped over 2% amid the soured risk tone and sluggish downstream demand.
US Event Calendar
8:30am: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 1.2, prior 1.2
12pm: Household Change in Net Worth, prior $6.55t deficit
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
one of the reasons we have a widening bias for credit into year-end ( see our YE outlook here from a couple of weeks back) is that it seemed inevitable to us that we’d see a second wave causing confusion and chaos to many government’s strategies. Well as we sweltered in a pretty hot late September weekend here in the U.K. (and across much of Europe) the fact that the virus is already spreading quite rapidly is a big worry. It doesn’t feel like fatalities are going to be as big as an issue as they were in the first wave but it really is hard to understand what the strategies of governments are at the moment. They pretty much all don’t want a further wide scale lockdown but they also don’t want the virus to spread. Its not going to be easy to solve for both and as such It’s going to be a pretty difficult few months ahead if September is seeing numbers as high as they are already. I personally didn’t think these type of numbers would take place until well into October. Expect lots more restrictions over the days and weeks ahead, especially in Europe.
The latest on virus is that its spread has continued in the Europe with France reporting 37,282 new cases in the last 3 days, the highest since pandemic began. The 7 day average of new cases for France stands at 10,123,versus 8,161 a week ago. Over in the UK, the 3-day number stands at 12,661, the highest since May 9 with Health Secretary Matt Hancock not ruling out that London office employees might have to work from home again this week as Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty is set to warn on today that the UK is at a “critical point.” Meanwhile, the LBC radio reported yesterday that London Mayor Sadiq Khan will recommend tightened rules for the capital today. Across the other side of world, South Korea reported 70 new cases yesterday, the lowest since the second wave began. However, the country is set to strengthen social distancing rules from September 28 to October 11, which will be designated as special quarantine period as the country celebrates Chuseok holidays from September 30 to October 4. So restrictions are tightening in even successful virus fighting places.
The weekend political press has also been full of news after US Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away late Friday night following a long battle with cancer. Afterwards, President Trump said that he would put forth a nominee to fill the seat and Senate Majority Leader McConnell said “President Trump’s nominee will receive a vote on the floor of the United States Senate,” indicating that Republican leadership will try to fill the seat ahead of the election.This represents a turn in the Majority leader’s thinking from 2016, where he did not allow a floor vote for then-President Obama’s nominee in an election year. The nomination and confirmation process will introduce a new element to an election not least because the court can hold sway over highly contentious issues like healthcare, abortion rights and gun law.
It brings lots of fascinating scenarios to the table. If Trump succeeds at getting his nomination through before the election there will be a 6-3 Republican bias to the Supreme Court which as discussed could have policy ramifications for the US for a generation. Democrats are up in arms that the Republicans won’t wait until after the election and are suggesting that may do extraordinary things to address the balance (like adding new judges to the bench) if they gain control of both the Senate and the White House. Congress altered the size of the bench seven times in the first eighty years of the republic (ranging from 5 to 10 justices) but this has not changed since the Judiciary Act of 1869. However getting the current Senate to confirm a nominee won’t be straight forward for Mr Trump as the GOP only hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate (with Vice President Pence serving as the tie-breaker) and a few members have already made noises that they don’t think a new judge should be added this close to the election. So even more drama added to an election campaign.
Another interesting weekend story is of China revealing how it will manage its “unreliable entity list” that aims to punish firms, organizations or individuals that pose a threat or potential threat to China’s sovereignty, national security, development and business interests; and those that discriminate against or harm Chinese businesses, organizations or individuals. According to details, penalties will include restrictions on trade, investment and visas of any company, country, group or person that appears on its “unreliable entity list.” The Global Times has carried an article that HSBC is a possible candidate and is down -2.91% to the lowest level it has traded since the 2008 financial crisis.
In overall trading, the Hang Seng (-0.95%) is leading the declines this morning not helped by this. Other Asian markets have also started the week on a weak footing with the Shanghai Comp (-0.41%), Kospi (-0.29%) and Asx (-0.54%) all down along with S&P 500 futures (-0.21%). In fx, all G-10 currencies are trading strong against the greenback with the US dollar index down -0.21%.
In other news, the FT reported that the ECB has launched a review of its pandemic bond-buying program to consider how long it should continue and whether its exceptional flexibility should be extended to older programs. The report added that the review is expected to be discussed by policy makers next month.
Looking to this week now, the flash PMIs on Wednesday will probably get the most attention due to it being one of the first glimpses of September economic performance around the world. Economic and social restrictions are mounting again in various places due to the virus but it may be a bit too early to see their impact in these numbers.
It’ll also be worth keeping an eye on Germany’s Ifo survey on Thursday, which has so far been rising each month since its April low, even as it remains below its pre-pandemic level. The consensus is looking for a further increase to 93.8, which would be just 2 points below its level in February.
Meanwhile Fed Chair Powell will be speaking three times before congressional committees. He’ll be appearing tomorrow before the House Financial Services Panel about the CARES Act. Then on Wednesday he’ll be appearing on the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis, before Thursday sees him speak before the Senate Banking Committee on the CARES Act once again. Otherwise, there’ll be remarks from Fed Vice Chair Quarles on the economic outlook, while Bank of England Governor Bailey will be speaking twice next week.
There’ll also a special European Council summit on Thursday and Friday. As well as taking stock of the Covid-19 pandemic, the agenda includes a discussion of the single market, industrial policy and digital transformation, along with the EU’s external relations. Brexit may get a small mention as relationships between the EU and the U.K. are just about hanging by enough of a thread enough to merit it. The day by day calendar of the week ahead is at the end.
Recapping last week now and equity markets continued to feel the pullback in mega-cap tech stocks. The S&P 500 dropped -0.64% (-1.12% Friday) to six week lows, having declined for a third straight week for the first time since October 2019. The index is now down -7.30% from 2 Sept highs. The NASDAQ also fell a third week in a row itself, declining -0.56% (-1.07% Friday) and is now down -10.48% from recent highs. Meanwhile European equities edged higher for a second straight week with the Stoxx 600 ending the week +0.22% higher (-0.66% Friday). While the broader index rose on the week, many individual bourses across Europe finished lower with the DAX (-0.66%), FTSE 100 (-0.42%), FTSE MIB (-1.49%), CAC 40 (-1.11%) and IBEX (-0.19%) all posting losses as Covid-19 caseloads continue to rise throughout western Europe, prompting some restrictions to be reinstated. Asian equities were mixed with the CSI 300 up +2.37% on the week, while the Nikkei (-0.20%) and the Kospi (+0.66%) saw smaller weekly moves.
Similar to risk assets, core sovereign bonds were mixed on the week. US 10yr Treasury yields rose +2.8bps (+0.5bps Friday) to finish at 0.694%, while 10yr Bund yields were down -0.4bps (+0.6bps Friday) to -0.49% and gilts were largely unchanged (+0.1bps) at 0.18%. The dollar fell -0.44% on the week after rising in 3 of the previous 4 weeks. This in part supported gold’s +0.53% rise on the week, while copper gained +2.62%. However, the largest move in commodities was in oil. Brent (+8.34%) and WTI (+10.13%) rose in part on news that Russia and Saudi Arabia would push their fellow OPEC+ members on keeping to quotas.
On the data front from Friday, UK August retail sales rose more than expected and up +0.6% MoM (+0.4% expected) and +4.3% YoY (+4.2% expected). In Germany, August PPI was -1.2% YoY, up from last month’s -1.7% reading and slightly higher than expected (-1.4%). While in the US, the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Sentiment survey showed an +4.9pt increase to 78.9 (75.0 expected), which is the highest since March.
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2FM9deg Tyler Durden
European Banks See Biggest Drop In Months After Massive FinCEN Leak Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/21/2020 – 07:01
Shares of the world’s biggest banks are tumbling in premarket trade Monday morning after Buzzfeed last night published a lengthy report based on a cache of thousands of leaked SARS – suspicious activity reports – filed by the world’s biggest banks, including JP Morgan, and Deutsche Bank, which were both prominently featured.
JP Morgan shares tumbled 3.5% to their lowest levels since July.
European banks bore the brunt of the selling on Monday, given that many European megabanks featured prominently in the reporting. Deutsche Bank tumbled 8.3% as the report relitigated parts of the Mueller probe and the bank’s involvement with the Trump family, and members of the Trump inner circle. Reports in the files revealed at least $1.3 trillion in suspicious transactions passed through the bank between the late 1990s and late 2010s.
European banks are having their worst session in six months, as HSBC falls 4% to lows unseen in decades. HSBC and Standard Chartered both featured heavily in the report, as transgressions involving both banks from around 2012 were cited as helping spur a massive surge in banks filing SARs.
As a result of dredging up these years-old allegations, HSBC shares – already battered by uncertainty in its biggest market, Hong Kong – have slumped to their lowest level since 1995.
DB, meanwhile, was shown to have processed $1.3 trillion in suspicious transactions between the late 1990s and 2017. All told, the documents obtained by Buzzfeed and shared with the ICIJ showed the banks moving more than $2 trillion in suspicious funds between 1999 and 2017.
The Stoxx Europe 600 banks index dropped 4.6% at its lows, the biggest daily drop in more than 3 months.
European banks are now down roughly 43% so far this year. One banking analyst noted that although the allegations represented in the story are years, even decades, old, the sprawling report is “yet another bad-report card for the banking sector,” wrote Zurcher Kantonalbank analysts in a note to clients.
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3mB7kln Tyler Durden
Nikola Plummets 25% After Founder Milton Unexpectedly Resigns As Chairman Amid SEC Probe Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/21/2020 – 06:26
Nikola stock plunged more than 25% after founder Trevor Milton unexpectedly resigned as Executive Chairman of Nikola just days after the company was reported to be the focus of investigations by the SEC and DOJ following a highly critical short-seller report. The resignation was first reported by FreightWaves.
“Nikola is truly in my blood and always will be, and the focus should be on the company and its world-changing mission, not me,” Milton wrote at 2:21am in a terse, disjointed tweet to which he blocked responses (one can imagine why), confirming the FreightWaves rerport. “So I made the difficult decision to approach the board and step aside.”
Well, Trevor, it was never about you as the NKLA price confirms, but we are confident the regulators will be happy to make it about you now that you have confirmed that the Hindenburg report was accurate and most if not all of Nikola is a fraud. Until then, just keep an eye on Trevor taking a private jet to various non-extradition countries.
Milton’s tweet was merely the latest indication that Milton, like Tesla’s Elon Musk, has relied on social media to promote his company. In February, he introduced the Badger truck via a tweet, calling it “the most advanced electric & hydrogen pickup, designed to take down the Ford Raptor.” On June 8 he tweeted that Nikola would start taking Badger reservations later in the month for “the most bad a – zero emission truck.” Potential buyers paid deposits as high as $5,000 – without even seeing a prototype of a vehicle that won’t go on sale until 2022.
As Bloomberg notes, “investors have sometimes struggled to keep up with Milton’s messages, especially given the evolving list of projects Nikola is pursuing: battery-electric big rigs in Europe, fuel-cell-powered semis in the U.S., an electric pickup to be built by GM, becoming the preeminent supplier of hydrogen for fleets of vehicles and vague proposals to enter the market for high-performance sports cars.”
“It’s a bit confusing trying to follow Trevor on his various social-media outlets about the timing and cadence of communication of the different variables that you’re talking about,” Jeff Osborne, a Cowen & Co. analyst, told executives during Nikola’s first earnings call on Aug. 4.
Milton’s resignation comes less than 2 weeks after Hindenburg Research’s original report calling the company an “intricate fraud” and just 6 days after Hindenburg’s follow up report stating it viewed Nikola’s response as a “tacit admission of securities fraud”.
It remains to be seen whether the sudden departure has anything to do with reports of both the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Department of Justice making inquiries to the company. Additionally, Tweets began to surface late Sunday night by the CEO of Entrata, David Bateman, who alleged that women had “come forward accusing Milton of groping her”.
Trevor hired her for a https://t.co/E5n9ccpnHW modeling shoot. Of course the shoot was out of town, and he arranged the trip so he’d be sleeping in the same home as the two models he hired. After pushing him off he berated her and slept on the floor next to her bed all night
The sudden resignation also came just hours after Cowen put out a note defending the company and Milton, placing a $79 price target on the company. “To be clear, we don’t believe Nikola is a fraud,” Cowen said.
“We see Mr. Milton as overly aggressive in the positioning, specifics and timing of many of the variables he has discussed, but we don’t see this as intentional deception” pic.twitter.com/tQ9FT7zZcf
As reported previously, Nikola had said it voluntarily reached out to the SEC to discuss its issues with the Hindenburg report, and ultimately held a call with agency officials on the morning of Sept. 11. Nikola says Hindenburg was attempting to profit from a “manufactured decline” in its share price.
“Nikola has contacted and briefed the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission regarding Nikola’s concerns pertaining to the Hindenburg report,” the company said early last week. “Nikola intends to fully cooperate with the SEC regarding its inquiry into these matters.”
In a lengthy report on Sept. 10 Hindenburg Research compared Nikola to Theranos, calling it an “intricate fraud” which overstated the capabilities of its earliest test trucks among many other allegations. Among the bolder accusations made by Hindenburg Research in their recent scathing report about Nikola Corporation was the allegation that Nikola faked its Nikola One semi truck “in motion” video, which appeared to show a functioning big rig barreling through the desert, trailer in tow.
Some people even took to the desert with their own cars to recreate the experiment on the same hill.
On the morning of September 14, Nikola put out a response that confirmed its Nikola One wasn’t powering itself during the company’s 2018 commercial featuring the semi. You can read Nikola’s full response here.
Nikola’s shares have roller-coastered since the company went public on June 4 in a reverse merger, with Girsky’s blank-check company VectoIQ. At one point, they soared so high driven by clueless Robinhood momentum-chasers that the startup’s market value exceeded Ford Motor. After the third day of trading, Milton – who owns 35% of the company, based on regulatory filings – was worth $9 billion, making him the world’s 188th richest person. His net worth was valued at $4 billion before Monday’s stock plunge.
The question now is whether GM CEO Mary Barra, who infamously defended her investment in Nikola claiming sufficient due diligence was performed, follows in Milton’s footsteps and resigns next.
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3hQXA2u Tyler Durden
Manager Of $139BN Fidelity Fund Blames Robinhood For Exodus Of Client Money Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/21/2020 – 05:30
At this point, few serious market historians would deny that Robinhood has changed the market game in a major way. As we explained a few weeks ago when it was revealed that the SEC would be investigating Robinhood for allegedly misleading customers about how it makes money, the discount brokerage is now making a tidy sum selling its users’ order flow to HFT firms like Citadel.
Some might call this “market making”, others might call it “frontrunning”. It depends on the context. As far as RobinHood’s business goes, the company, and its discount brokerage rivals, bristle at the notion that RH is helping HFT firms front-run mom-and-pop traders.
Whatever the impact on market conditions, it’s clear this trend has accelerated dramatically since the start of the year. It’s one reason Barstool Sports’ founder Dave Portnoy has achieved almost as much notoriety for his market commentary as he earned from his pizza reviews.
Thanks to the allure of “gameification”, young people actively trading via discount electronic brokerages has become so popular, that managers of large mutual funds are starting to feel threatened.
Fidelity portfolio manager Will Danoff, the longtime manager of the $139 billion Contrafund, which is up more than 20% year to date, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 recently told Bloomberg that he’s “worried” about Robinhood luring away more of his investors, particularly younger investors.
Will Danoff has been wondering why billions of dollars keep flowing out of the Contrafund, the giant mutual fund he manages at Fidelity Investments. Performance isn’t the problem. He’s up 21% this year, trouncing the S&P 500’s 6.2% return. His conclusion: Today’s kids want something sexier.
“There’s a demographic issue,” Danoff, who has beaten the benchmark by an average of more than 3 percentage points annually over three decades, said in a Bloomberg Front Row interview. “We need to appeal to the Gen Z-ers and the younger generation as well, and luckily I think our app is quite good. But you know, a typical Gen Z-er may not be as interested in owning a mutual fund.”
To be sure, mutual funds have been on the decline for years, losing more and more market share to lower-cost ETFs. Now, the younger generation’s demands for user-friendly and trendy apps, and their taste for the rush of “day trading”, represents a new challenge for people like Danoff.
As Bloomberg points out, compared with Portnoy, Danoff’s buy-and-hold methodology looks “antiquated”.
Next to the social media antics of celebrity speculator Dave Portnoy, Danoff’s world of buy-and-hold discipline seems antique by comparison.
“When I started in 1990, there were 261 equity funds, and now there are thousands,” said Danoff, who manages $230 billion. “There are thousands of hedge funds. There are thousands or millions of Robinhood investors. There’s sovereign wealth funds, etc. So there’s no question that it’s become much, much more competitive.”
Danoff’s concerns are certainly justified, but he’s missed out on some important trends himself. Danoff told BBG he dumped his Tesla position back in 2018, missing out on $10 billion in gains.
Will Danoff
Buying back in to such a capital-intensive business at such a lofty valuation makes him too apprehensive to even contemplate, so he feels like he’s stuck in limbo, he says. At the same time, Danoff has stuck with Berkshire Hathaway shares, despite Berkshire’s struggles over the past decade.
Fidelity also owns and operates its own discount electronic brokerage, and has sought to lure younger investors with offerings like crypto trading, and allowing customers to integrate Coinbase. So, should Danoff start working on his cover letter for a job at DDTG? Probably not. However, if the goal is to make mutual funds more “fun” or “exciting” in the hopes of attracting more young investors, the firm will have its work cut out for it: any fund or asset that prices just once per day probably isn’t exciting enough to hold the attention of younger investors.
But how might this trend impact market dynamics? Well, some argue we’re already seeing it play out in real time. Just look at the Nasdaq Thursday: It has already swung 2% in both directions.
At the end of the day, Fidelity has reason to complain: It’s attempts at being ‘hip’ aside, the exchanges and HFT firms are the ones who are really going to make a killing off the “Robinhood-ification” of markets.
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3kBUkdq Tyler Durden
Having presided over the recognition of Israel by the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, President Donald Trump has been nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize amid talk of peace breaking out across the region.
Assuredly, this is a major diplomatic breakthrough, and Nancy’s Pelosi’s sour-grapes dismissal of the deal as a “distraction” testifies to that truth.
Recognition of Israel by the UAE and Bahrain will, it is predicted, be followed by recognition of Israel by Oman and other Gulf states, perhaps even Saudi Arabia. But the idea that peace is at hand appears to be, as Mark Twain said of reports of his death, premature.
Indeed, the Gulf Arabs could be signing up to recognize Israel because they see the Jewish state as an indispensable ally in the Arab Sunni clash with the larger and more powerful Shiite Iran.
In 1979, the Camp David Accords were signed in a land-for-peace deal whereby Israel returned the Sinai, captured in the 1967 Six-Day War, to Egypt. Egypt’s Anwar Sadat and Israel’s Menachem Begin both won the Nobel Prize for Peace. Yet, while peace was established between Cairo and Jerusalem, that did not inaugurate an era of peace.
Jordan’s King Hussein recognized Israel in 1994. Yet, since then, Israel has fought wars with Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Palestinians of the West Bank in successive intifadas.
The Palestinian issue also seems no closer to resolution.
What the Gulf Arabs are saying with these recognitions is that the seemingly irreconcilable Palestinian-Israeli conflict can no longer be permitted to interfere with the Arabs’ pursuit of allies in the conflict that more immediately concerns them — that of Iran against the Sunni Arab nations of the Persian Gulf.
The Palestinians are the losers here, having lost their veto power over Arab nations establishing ties to Israel. As for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, it seems even further from resolution.
The “deal of the century” peace plan midwifed by Jared Kushner projected a Palestinian state on two-thirds of the West Bank. The rest of the West Bank, now occupied by half a million Jewish settlers, would be ceded to Israel.
Any Palestinian leader who signed away Jerusalem and a third of the West Bank to Israel would risk ending up like Matthias Erzberger, who signed the Versailles Treaty in Paris for Germany and was assassinated in the Black Forest in August 1921.
Other conflicts in the region contradict the notion of a coming era of peace. Syria’s civil war, where Russia, Hezbollah and Iran are supporting the Damascus regime of Bashar Assad is unfinished, though Assad has regained control of most of his country.
The Yemen civil war remains a bloody and inconclusive conflict between a Saudi-backed regime which was driven out of the capital by Houthi rebels five years ago. U.S.-backed Saudi airstrikes have made of the country a human rights catastrophe. There is even talk of war crimes charges being brought against Riyadh for its bombings, and the United States for having sustained and supported those airstrikes.
In Libya, a civil war is underway between the recognized regime backed by Turkey and rebels backed by the UAE, Russia and Egypt.
In the Eastern Mediterranean, there is a naval stand-off between NATO allies Greece and Turkey over who owns the oil and gas below the seas off Cyprus and the Greek islands closest to the Turkish coast.
Then there is the undeclared war being waged against Iran by Israel and to which the U.S. is contributing with the crushing sanctions it has imposed to weaken and to isolate the ayatollah’s regime.
U.S. military action against Iran, before Election Day, long advocated by hawks in this city and Israel, cannot be ruled out.
As for the Afghan civil war, in which the U.S. has been engaged for 19 years, it remains unresolved, though the Taliban have begun talks with the Kabul government. Then there is the endless Turkish-Kurd conflict inside Turkey that has spilled over into Iraq and Syria.
In establishing embassies in Israel, the UAE and Bahrain are taking a risk, making a wager on who will emerge as dominant in the Middle East.
While the UAE is a significant power in the Persian Gulf, Bahrain is a collection of islands of 300 square miles with a population fewer than two million people, a Sunni king and a Shiite majority.
Though home port to the U.S. Fifth Fleet, it is vulnerable.
A decade ago, the king was almost dethroned by a Shiite uprising sparked by the Arab Spring. Saudi Arabia had to send an army across the causeway to put down the resistance and save the regime.
Even Israel is not truly at peace today, with its drones, planes and missiles intermittently striking Iranian-backed militia in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq. Still, all in all, this week brought good news on at least one front of the Middle East’s forever wars.
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2FSVFNK Tyler Durden
Patient Dies As German Hospital Ransomware Attack Unleashes Chaos Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/21/2020 – 04:15
A hospital in Germany was the target of a severe ransomware attack in early September, which resulted in “extensive IT failure,” preventing one patient from receiving urgent care, marking a rare instance in which ransomware directly contributed to a death.
“There is currently an extensive IT failure at the University Hospital Düsseldorf (UKD),” UKD hospital officials said in a statement on Sept. 11. “This means, among other things, that the clinic can only be reached to a limited extent – both by telephone and by email. Planned and outpatient treatments will also not take place and will be postponed. Patients are therefore asked not to visit the UKD – even if an appointment has been made.”
According to hospital officials, the ransomware attack took place on Sept. 11 and led to a significant failure of IT systems and databases.
“In addition, the clinic cannot be reached by email,” the statement read. “Except for a few extensions, the telephone system is already back in operation. The care of patients who are already being treated as inpatients at the UKD is still guaranteed.”
The consequence of the outage forced hospital officials to shift patients to other medical facilities and postponed operations. One death was attributed to the hack after a woman in desperate need of urgent care was rerouted to another hospital in the metro area for treatment. She was transported 20 miles to a hospital in Wuppertal, said RT News, with doctors indicating the delay in treatment was fatal. As a result, local police have opened up a homicide investigation in connection with the incident.
RT also notes the ransomware encrypted 30 serves at the hospital, holding much of its IT systems and databases hostage. Hospital officials said the ransomware did not come with explicit instructions to wire money or cryptocurrency but instead had instructions on contacting the hackers.
Systems were being “gradually restored and that it doesn’t believe that any of the affected data will be irretrievably lost,” RT said.
The attack is the first reported death from ransomware. Hospitals have often been targeted by hackers because critical IT systems and databases of these facilities increase the probability the victims will pay their extortionists.
While hospitals are often the target, entire municipalities have been hit with aggressive ransomware attacks. We noted in 2019, “coordinated” ransomware attacks hit at least 23 cities in Texas.
A cryptocurrency ransomware paralyzed the city of Baltimore as hackers disabled critical communication networks last year.
In 2018, a small Florida city called Lake City paid ransomware extortionists around $462,000 to unlock critical IT networks.
Even with all the technology available to hospitals and municipalities, hackers continue to penetrate critical systems and extort millions of dollars per year.
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2RK7W9Z Tyler Durden
In Harry Potter, Albus Dumbledore told the students of Hogwarts School of Witchcraft and Wizardry that “It takes a great deal of bravery to stand up to our enemies, but just as much to stand up to our friends.”
Many are learning the truth of that line written by famed author JK Rowling as self-described progressives burn her books or ban them from shelves because she personally holds an opposing view of gender. Much like the boycott movement of Chick-Fil-A over comments by its CEO, people are seeking to punish Rowling through attacks on her literature.
We previously discussed the embracing of art destruction as analogous to book burning, but now actual book burning is being embraced as a weapon of the woke.
A TikTok series show people around the world burning copies of Rowlings’ books. In one video of a burning pile of books by TikTok user @elmcdo, a voice is heard saying
“You have to stop using ‘death of the author’ as an excuse to have your cake and eat it too. While the reader’s perspective is an important part of interpretation and meaning, it is impossible to completely divorce a work from its creator. The positive impact that J.K. Rowling’s work had on millions of readers does not negate how her hateful lobbying has affected the trans community.”
That sums up the logic of every book burner in history. You cannot read a book because of the views or religion or identity of the author. It is better to burn the book to protect society.
Then there is Rabble Books and Games in Maylands, Perth. The owner owner Nat Latter proudly declared on Facebook that he had removed all of the Harry Potter books from bookshelves to guarantee “a safer space for our community.” So you can buy a Rowlings book by having it retrieved from behind the back room like pornography. It is a form of censoring by making it more difficult to buy some books rather than others because you disfavor authors with opposing views.
Latter seems to relish the role of a book censoring book seller:
“Whilst stocking a book isn’t an endorsement (good grief, that would be a minefield), and we will always take orders for books that aren’t in stock, there are more worthy books to put on the shelf, books that don’t harm communities and won’t make us sad to unpack them.”
Does Latter also hide works with opposing views on gender from the Bible to the Koran to classic novels? Indeed, why not pull all of the work of authors like Hemingway and others for their views of women or race relations or other issues? Book sellers used to be people who wants to be gateways to knowledge and a world of different ideas and values. Now readers are being protected from even seeing the name of an author who personally holds opposing or offensive views.
What is most disturbing is not the flawed rhetoric of these individuals in justifying book burning and speech regulation but the relative silence from communities as a whole. We have seen increasing pressure to regulate art based on the identity or gender of artists. Authors often hold unpopular views from society as a whole. Many are deeply religious or hold narrow views of certain social institutions or rights. These views are often not reflected in their art or writings. Indeed, Rowlings is viewed as extremely liberal but holds a narrow view of gender. We can debate her on those views and denounce those that we find hateful or intolerant. However, burning or banning or hiding books (or destroying art) is the ultimate attack on free speech. It is the signature of oppression from the China’s Qin Dynasty to the Nazis to Southern segregationists. Saying that you are different because you are acting in defense of others is a transparently weak rationalization. Declaring intolerance in the name of tolerance captures the very illogic of book burning.
These actions only prove again what Albus Dumbledore said (and J.K. Rowlings wrote): “Dark times lie ahead of us and there will be a time when we must choose between what is easy and what is right.”
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2ZXfx9w Tyler Durden
UK Unveils Harsh $13,000 Fine For Breaking Quarantine Amid Covid 2nd Wave Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/21/2020 – 02:45
The UK witnessed new record coronavirus case numbers reported in a single day since May on Saturday, logging over 4,420 confirmed infections.
And now authorities are getting desperate, threatening severe law enforcement measures and penalties, with the latest being that those who test positive but refuse to self-quarantine can be hit with a fine up to $13,000 (or 10,000 pounds).
It comes after Prime Minister Boris Johnson confirmed the country is undergoing an “inevitable” second wave of infections on Friday.
Via The Daily Records
“Obviously, we’re looking carefully at the spread of the pandemic as it evolves over the last few days, and there’s no question, as I’ve said for several weeks now, that we could expect, and we are now seeing, a second wave coming in,” Johnson said.
He referenced case number spikes seen in nearby Spain and France, saying that it’s “absolutely inevitable, I’m afraid, that we would see it in this country.”
The new harsh penalty of the equivalent of a $13,000 fine takes effect by the end of this month, per the AP:
The new rule obliges people to self-isolate if they test positive for the coronavirus or are traced as a close contact. The rule comes into effect on Sept. 28.
The government will help those on lower incomes who face a loss of earnings as a result of self-isolating with a one-time support payment of 500 pounds ($633).
Amid continuing protests in London by Britons fed up with restricted freedoms, including mask and social distancing mandates and security crackdowns, PM Johnson’s latest comments also stronglyhinted that a second lockdown is on the table, such as Israel is experiencing.
“I don’t think anybody wants to go into a second lockdown, but clearly when you look at what is happening, you’ve got to wonder whether we need to go further than the rule of six that we brought in on Monday,” Johnson said.
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/35UEdmQ Tyler Durden
Do Norwegian politicians have a sense of humor after all? Or are they being deliberately provocative by nominating President Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize in the middle of the biggest campaign of character assassination faced by any Western politician in recent times?
At first glance, Trump may actually have a claim to the dynamite-maker’s prize. He has brokered normalization between Israel and two of its erstwhile Arab enemies, with more expected to follow. He may have also cleared the last foyer of conflict in former Yugoslavia by mediating a settlement between Serbia and Kosovo.
In both cases he has managed to jump historic, emotional and ideological hurdles that many, including this writer, believed could not be crossed in the foreseeable future. How he did it and what underhand measures he employed to clinch the deals is a matter for speculation. But what matters, as far as the Nobel judges are concerned, is that he did it; he brought peace where there was conflict.
Trump the peacemaker? The liberal elites on both sides of the Atlantic react to that phrase with a hearty “Ha! Ha! Ha!” or an angry cry of “scandal”.
But, wait a minute, a closer look may tell a different story.
First, with the exception of Dwight Eisenhower, Trump is the only US president since World War II not to have led his nation into a war, big or small.
President Harry Truman took America into the Korean War. John F. Kennedy got the US involved in the Vietnam War. His successor Lyndon Johnson extended the war into Laos. Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford prolonged the war and extended it into Cambodia. Ronald Reagan had his mini-war in Grenada plus proxy wars in El Salvador and Nicaragua while also helping British allies in the Falklands conflict.
George H. W. Bush led the invasion of Iraq plus a mini but costly incursion in Somalia. Bill Clinton dragged the US into the Yugoslav conflict. George W. Bush drew a double by invading first Afghanistan and then Iraq. Leading from behind, Barack Obama got the US involved in the Libyan war while starting the largest drone war in history in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Yemen. He also incited the Arabs to rebellion against their governments but then refused to raise a finger to help them, thus lighting the fire of civil wars, notably in Syria. His support for the mullahs of Tehran also encouraged them to speed up their empire-building efforts, plunging much of the Middle East into violence and war.
In contrast, Trump the dealmaker, ignoring hawkish advisers, refused to take military action against North Korea. He even accepted to demean himself in the eyes of many by treating the North Korean despot Kim Jung-un with decorum. Trump also pulled the plug on a series of planned airstrikes against the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Last but not least, Trump tried to broker a deal with the Afghan Taliban.
One may or may not approve of those acts, and in some cases, notably legitimizing the Taliban, one may even have a sense of betrayal. But, as far as Nobel judges are concerned, all those acts were aimed at making peace.
I doubt that, in the end, the liberal elites in control of the Nobel game will go for Trump. But if they do, he will be the fifth US president to gain the accolade. And if he does, he would be the most deserving of them all.
The first to win the Nobel was Theodore Roosevelt in 1906, for mediating a ceasefire in the Russo-Japanese war, which Russia had lost. The mediation did not remove the core of the conflict over the Sea of Okhotsk, with Russia recovering its losses in World War II and annexing the Japanese Kuril archipelago. Roosevelt, endearingly known as “Teddy”, was far from a “peace and love” icon. He waged war to complete the conquest of the Philippines and campaigned for joining the First World War. Worse still, the dear “Teddy” was a promoter of eugenics, ordering that “criminals should be sterilized and mentally retarded be forbidden to have descendants.”
The second of the four was President Woodrow Wilson, in 1919. Hailed for his “liberal internationalism,” Wilson had led the US into World War I, at the end of which he published a 14-point declaration promising self-determination to numerous “nations” and proto-nations in Europe and the Middle East. Britain and France ignored the declaration and went on to expand their empires with a series of treaties from Versailles to Lausanne and Montreux.
During his presidency, Wilson the peace laureate had led several wars, notably an invasion of Mexico to seize Vera Cruz and destabilize the despot Victoriano Huerta in favor of the “liberal” Venustiano Carranza. Wilson’s Secretary of State William Jennings Bryan talked a good talk for liberal elites but achieved little. Had he been around today, Wilson’s thinly disguised racism alone would have disqualified him.
The third Nobel laureate was Jimmy Carter for “his decades of untiring efforts to find peaceful solutions to international conflicts and advance democracy.” Since Carter was president only for four years, it is not clear where those “decades of efforts” came from. In any case, by arming, training and financing the first Mujahedin, Carter started a war that is still going on in Afghanistan. Carter’s Keystone Cops-style mini-invasion of Iran to release US hostages showed that was not shy about using force; he just didn’t know how to do it.
The fourth Nobel winner was Barack Obama, who was chosen even before he had become president. His case illustrated what in 1817 Coleridge called “a suspension of disbelief” with Nobel judges deciding to honor Obama for what he might do in the future. That Obama did not turn out to be the champion, of “make love, not war,” as Nobel judges had expected, is beside the point. His fans like him because he talked their talk without walking the walk.
Trump’s message of “make deals, not war” isn’t intellectually sexy enough for the liberal elites who set the norm for Nobel-style gimmicks. He may yet win the Nobel, but don’t hold your breath.
via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3mHnVng Tyler Durden
