Category: zerohedge

A new study from by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, and reported in AFP, finds that the earth is projected to have two billion fewer people by the next century than current United Nations projections forecast for “normal” global development. 

It forecasts a population peak by the 2060’s at an estimated 9.7 billion people, after which a steep decline will ensue down to 8.8 billion by 2100.

Currently, the global fertility rate stands at 2.4, but based on the study’s numbers, it’s expected to be at a “jaw-dropping” 1.7 by end of the century, as one the main authors Professor Christopher Murray described.

The study found alarmingly that 23 countries are expected to see their total population cut in at least half by the year 2100, among them include Italy, Japan, Poland, Portugal, South Korea, Spain and Thailand.

“It’s extraordinary, we’ll have to reorganize societies.” https://t.co/pDdi9nTVwu

— Futurism (@futurism) July 15, 2020

Some of the examples listed in the report are as follows:

Japan: from around 128 million people in 2017 to 60 million in 2100

Thailand: 71 million to 35 million

Spain: 46 million to 23 million

Italy: 61 million to 31 million 

Portugal: 11 million to 5 million

South Korea: 53 million to 27 million

Astoundingly – or perhaps entirely to be expected – mainstream media is hailing it as a “success story” given that it’s not about sperm count, but more and more women simply choosing to not have children. 

Chart illustrating the dramatic shift over the next hundred years via The Lancet/IHME

For example BBC wrote, “It has nothing to do with sperm counts or the usual things that come to mind when discussing fertility. Instead it is being driven by more women in education and work, as well as greater access to contraception, leading to women choosing to have fewer children.”

“In many ways, falling fertility rates are a success story,” BBC concluded, echoing some of the authors of the original study.

Submitted by SouthFront,

On July 14th and 15th, Syrian Army artillery units and warplanes of the Russian Aerospace Forces conducted extensive strikes on positions of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the Turkistan Islamic Party and other radical groups in northern Lattakia and southern Idlib. The main strikes hit fortified positions, weapon depots and gatherings of fighters and equipment near Kbana, Sifouhn, al-Muzarra, Ain al-Aruz, Kansafra, Kafr Uwayd, Mawzrah and Humaymat. According to pro-government sources, over a dozen militants were killed and injured, and 2 weapon depots were destroyed.

These strikes came in response to a suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device attack on a joint Turkish-Russian patrol on the M4 highway in southern Idlib on July 14. The explosion hit the patrol near Ariha. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, 3 Russian soldiers and some Turkish troops were injured. The Turkish Defense Ministry added that nobody was killed, but 2 vehicles of the convoy were damaged. A photo of the damaged BTR-82A is also circulating online.

A previously unknown group, Kataib Hattab ash-Shishani, claimed responsibility for the attack saying that the suicide bomber was one of theirs. Nonetheless, there is no such group active in Idlib. Most likely, this is a fake brand used to draw attention away from the real attackers. The main suspect would be the coalition of al-Qaeda-linked groups Fa Ithbatu, which recently lost a conflict for money and power to its elder brother Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which used to be the official branch of al-Qaeda in Syria. The Fa Ithbatu leadership sees the current ceasefire in Idlib as a threat to its interests because Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is using it to solidify its control over the few Idlib areas where its influence is still limited. The new round of clashes between the Syrian Army and Turkish-led forces in Idlib is the only thing that can help it to keep its independence and its access to resources for a significant period of time.

The Turkish military reacted to the situation by sending additional troops and equipment, including trucks with concrete blocks, to Idlib city. Instead of fighting terrorists, Ankara seems to be planning to create more fortifications to protect them from a possible offensive by the Syrian Army or its allies.

Meanwhile, the Syrian Army detained 3 members of the US-backed militant group Maghawir al-Thawra near Palmyra. The militants were tasked with collecting data about Russian, Iranian and Syrian military targets in central Syria. Earlier, Russia warned that the US-led coalition is training groups of militants in al-Tanf  to conduct sabotage operations against civilian and military infrastructure in the government-controlled part of Syria.

While it’s the Trump administration’s new punitive measures targeting China which have been driving headlines, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also signaled new measures related to the controversial Russia-Germany Nord Stream 2 pipeline. 

“Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said a sanctions exemption will be removed for a Russian natural-gas pipeline to Germany, paving the way for new penalties to be imposed on the contentious project,” The Wall Street Journal described of his comments.

“Mr. Pompeo said Wednesday that the State Department will lift a proviso that spared the pipeline, known as Nord Stream 2, from a 2017 sanctions measure,” the report added.

Already the major companies laying the massive NS2 pipeline and their executives have been threatened with sanction as of last year, which temporarily halted construction. From there Russia vowed to outfit pipe-laying ships and fill in the gap via its energy giant Gazprom.

The newly announced measures will allow a wider range of punishment options against companies working on the pipeline as it nears completion, which Washington has long been trying to thwart. 

“Our expectation is that those who participate in the continued project will be subject to review for potential consequences,” Pompeo announced. 

“It’s a clear warning to companies aiding and abetting Russia’s malign-influence projects it will not be tolerated,” Pompeo said.

“Get out now, or risk the consequences,” he warned.

Pompeo’s Wednesday statement further targeted a separate Russian natural gas project, specifically through Turkey.

The statement mentioned Turkstream pipelines as putting companies “at risk” of sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act.

Authored by Austin Bay via The Epoch Times,

Four years ago this week, the Chinese Communist Party declared war on international order in the form of a blunt rejection.

On July 12, 2016, The Hague’s international arbitral tribunal, relying on the 1982 U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea treaty (UNCLOS), issued a ruling supporting the Philippines’ claims that China had violated Filipino territory in the South China Sea by seizing islets and “sea features.” China had also plundered resources in the Philippines’ maritime Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

Despite having signed the sea treaty (which meant accepting the arbitration process), the Chinese government callously ignored the verdict and disdained the court’s authority.

UNCLOS codified the geophysical conditions and legal precedents establishing sovereign control of territorial waters and sovereign rights in the EEZ. It is an example of practical, peace-promoting diplomacy.

China’s blunt rejection of the decision stunned the Filipino government and alerted other nations on the Pacific Rim. The Beijing regime not only broke a major treaty it had ratified but also openly maligned legal procedures created to promote peaceful resolution of international disputes. Beijing’s thuggish rebuke sent the message that Chinese whim backed by China’s enormous military and economic power determined sovereignty in the South China Sea.

Chinese communist predatory behavior long predates 2016, but in retrospect, Beijing’s appalling reaction to the ruling clearly demonstrated the CCP could not be trusted to abide by even the most meticulously negotiated treaty. The CCP’s June 2020 decision to break the Sino-British Joint Declaration of 1984 and impose its authoritarian laws on Hong Kong reinforced the ugly lesson that treaties with communist China do not protect smaller nations and territories from Chinese theft and absorption.

Reneging on treaties, spurning just verdicts and, of course, seizing territory without suffering severe consequences tells China’s leaders that its opponents are weak and lack the will to resist. Undermining, co-opting and ultimately dominating global diplomatic and economic institutions; public and private organizations; and methods of interaction is another CCP goal. Revealing weakness forwards this line of operation.

For decades, the U.S. Navy has conducted Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPS). During a FONOP, a Navy vessel enters contested waters and demonstrates American opposition to maritime territorial claims that intrude on international shipping lanes. In 2015, the U.S. began regular FONOPS specifically challenging China’s spurious claims in the South China Sea.

In 2016, the U.S. limited its response to China’s rejection of the tribunal ruling. Washington strongly criticized China’s mistreatment of the Philippines, encouraged diplomatic and defense cooperation among southeast Asian nations, and continued the FONOPS, but it avoided a direct, “great power” diplomatic confrontation with Beijing.

The Hong Kong invasion, China’s cyber hacking, China’s pervasive espionage operations and its duplicity regarding the COVID-19/Wuhan virus pandemic have finally convinced senior American leaders that a CCP-led China only respects power, and only greater power can deter its ambitions.

On July 13, 2020, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced a “strengthened” U.S. policy in the South China Sea that specifically aligns American policy with the tribunal’s decision. “Beijing’s claims to offshore resources across most of the South China Sea are completely unlawful, as is its campaign of bullying to control them,” Pompeo said. “(W)e seek to preserve peace and stability, uphold freedom of the seas in a manner consistent with international law, maintain the unimpeded flow of commerce, and oppose any attempt to use coercion or force to settle disputes.”

Calling CCP-led China an unprecedented threat, he succinctly described Beijing’s theft and extortion racket.

“Beijing uses intimidation to undermine the sovereign rights of Southeast Asian coastal states in the South China Sea, bully them out of offshore resources, assert unilateral dominion, and replace international law with ‘might makes right.’“

Pompeo backed his statement with a promise:

“America stands with our Southeast Asian allies and partners in protecting their sovereign rights to offshore resources, consistent with their rights and obligations under international law.”

Protection: Since China ignores treaties, protecting means employing American military might.

*  *  *

Austin Bay is a colonel (ret.) in the U.S. Army Reserve, author, syndicated columnist, and a teacher in strategy and strategic theory at the University of Texas. His latest book is “Cocktails from Hell: Five Wars Shaping the 21st Century.”

Pornhub issued a press release on Monday, indicating it will provide free advertising space for small businesses affected by the virus-induced economic crash. 

The campaign is called “A BIG PACKAGE,” exclusively for small businesses that need “a little stimulation,” said the world’s largest porn site. 

No matter where you are, if yours is small and it needs a little stimulation, we’re the experts. That’s why, we’re giving away free ads on pornhub.com to the tune of 1 billion impressions, exclusively to small businesses everywhere. Because what better place to connect with new customers than a website that receives over 120 million happy visitors a day. – the release states

Pornhub lists only one requirement for small businesses to freely advertise on the site: 

If you own a company with less than 100 employees, you’re eligible to apply. Complete the form below, and if you’re selected, we’ll create a series of customized ads for your business… inspired by ours. So, instead of tightening your belt in this economy, let us help you loosen it. – the release states

The campaign is global, from New York City to Tokyo – Pornhub wants small businesses to advertise on its site for free. Here’s a promotional video of “Big Package:” 

During the pandemic lockdowns, Pornhub offered free premium accounts to anyone in the world, an effort to flatten the virus curve, the company said in March. 

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Finance and economic expert Alasdair Macleod says the gold market is “extremely dangerous as far as the bullion banks, swaps and trading desks” that, at some point soon, are going to have to deliver physical gold they do not have.  

Macleod explains,

“I find it difficult to see how they can close it… The possibility of a default and the possibility of a ‘force majeure’ is increasing all the time in this current situation.  This is a difficult thing to predict, but unless someone can show me there is a way out of this . . . I can’t see how these banks can be rescued.”

So, the only way the banks can be saved is if they can deliver tons of physical gold they likely don’t have?  Macleod says, “Which they don’t have, not likely have, they don’t have.”

Macleod thinks failure to deliver gold is coming soon where the contract will be settled in cash and not physical metal.  How many times can the gold market do this?  Macleod says,

“I think it will be the end of the futures market because nobody would trust it as a means of delivering gold.  I mean it would have demonstrably failed.  So, why would you play with it again?  Of course, the failure of COMEX contracts is a very, very serious issue.”

What happens to the price of gold?  Macleod says, “The price is already on its way to infinity or, put more accurately, the dollar is on its way to zero…” 

“The question I think you really want to know the answer to is how long will that take?  In my view, not very long.  Probably by the end of the year because we’ve got another thing happening in the background, and that is we have a banking crisis developing.  This is the natural consequence of the contraction of bank credit.  There is the effect of tariffs on top of that that turn a normal cycle of bank credit contraction into a 1929 to 1932 horror show. . . . If you have a banking collapse, then those assets values will just go down in the pan.  The next thing, of course, bond yields start rising because of the inflationary implications of a financial collapse.  At that stage, government financing becomes impossible because governments are in effect bankrupt.”

Macleod says stocks, the dollar and bonds all go down together and explains,

“That is the lesson of history.  Everything just goes away.  If you destroy the currency, you destroy all the financial assets that are priced in it.  That just happens.  It just goes.”

In closing, Macleod says, “I think the problems with the currency are going to happen by the end of this year…” 

“I think the problems of the COMEX are going to happen considerably before that.  I think they are going to be tied into a wider banking crisis.  A banking crisis is certain.  I cannot see how it can be avoided. . . . If our end point is the purchasing power of the dollar goes to zero, then you can see $1,800 for the price of gold and $19 for the price of silver is chicken crap compared to where it’s going to go.  So, this is a major, major move that is happening, not because they are buying gold and silver so much, but because people are beginning to realize what is happening to the purchasing power of the dollar, pound, euro and so on and so forth.  That is the thing to keep in mind. . . . I think the dollar will be destroyed by year end, and the price of gold and silver is infinity. . . .  I think the banking crisis could start in a month.  Look what’s happening to their balance sheets. . . . I think the collapse is likely to be so rapid that in the absence of any other information, the best thing to do is to hold on to gold and silver as an insurance policy just in case I am right.”

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Alasdair Macleod of GoldMoney.com.

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Considered one of the most strategically important unincorporated US island outposts in the world, Wake Island is also among the most restricted territories claimed by the US (also claimed by the Marshall Islands), given it remains a key American military outpost located about halfway between Hawaii and Japan.

It has historically served as a vital staging ground for US aircraft operating in the Western Pacific and as a remote line of defense, and is more recently witnessing military build-up as part of the US Navy’s “pivot toward the Pacific” — especially given rising US-China tensions and the controversial presence of two US supercarriers in the disputed South China Sea.  

Fresh satellite imagery republished by The Drive shows significant expansion to facilities, including to the airfield, which has a nearly 10,000 foot runway. Military publications have previously note that  “Wake is the only 10,000-foot runway for a 4,000-mile stretch of Pacific Ocean.”

The report details that images “The War Zone obtained from Planet Labs dated June 25th, 2020 shows that substantial improvements to the base have occurred recently. Based on archival satellite imagery, the major expansions to the airfield began early this year and are still underway today.”

Advanced American bombers routinely land and operate from Wake Island, supporting operations in the South Pacific. 

America’s remote outpost deep in the Pacific, situated roughly between Japan and Hawaii, Wake Island serves as a reserve airfield should American airpower have to fallback from the far reaches of Western Pacific during a peer state conflict. pic.twitter.com/XdvGBaQu6s

— Indo-Pacific News (@IndoPac_Info) July 8, 2020

“Beyond its clear logistical utility, acting as a major hub where there isn’t another for thousands of miles, it sits outside the range of China’s and North Korea’s medium-range ballistic missiles, and largely at the end, if not entirely out of range, of their intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs),” a separate report noted. 

“Guam, which is situated about 1,500 miles further west, is well within the range of these weapons.”

The new satellite images shows the large eastern apron area’s big expansion, as well as an enlarged secondary apron area on the west end on the runway. The runway itself has been completely rebuilt. pic.twitter.com/7MOT0BBWJ1

— Indo-Pacific News (@IndoPac_Info) July 8, 2020

But Wake Island would be out of reach in any rapid conflict with either China or North Korea, which would target nearer bases up to and including Guam with long-range cruise missiles.

Thus Wake Island would be considered a first line fall-back position in any hot war with major US enemies in Asia. Conscious of this, it appears the Pentagon is busy rapidly improving the remote atoll. 

Authored by Kerry McDonald via The Foundation for Economic Education,

With dehumanizing COVID-19 restrictions awaiting students at schools, many parents are opting to keep on homeschooling…

Next month marks the beginning of the 2020/2021 academic year in several US states, and pressure is mounting to reopen schools even as the COVID-19 pandemic persists. Florida, for example, is now considered the nation’s No. 1 hot spot for the virus; yet on Monday, the state’s education commissioner issued an executive order mandating that all Florida schools open in August with in-person learning and their full suite of student services.

Many parents are balking at back-to-school, choosing instead to homeschool their children this fall.

Gratefully, this virus seems to be sparing most children, and prominent medical organizations such as the American Academy of Pediatrics have urged schools to reopen this fall with in-person learning. For some parents, fear of the virus itself is a primary consideration in delaying a child’s return to school, especially if the child has direct contact with individuals who are most vulnerable to COVID-19’s worst effects.

But for many parents, it’s not the virus they are avoiding by keeping their children home—it’s the response to the virus.

In May, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued school reopening guidelines that called for:

• Strict social distancing tactics

• All-day mask wearing for most students and teachers

• Staggered attendance

• Daily health checks

• No gym or cafetaria use

• Restricted playground access and limited toy-sharing, and

• Tight controls on visitors to school buildings, including parents.

School districts across the country quickly adopted the CDC’s guidelines, devising their reopening plans accordingly. Once parents got wind of what the upcoming school-year would look like, including the real possibility that at any time schools could be shut down again due to virus spikes, they started exploring other options.

For Florida mother, Rachael Cohen, these social distancing expectations and pandemic response measures prompted her to commit to homeschooling her three children, ages 13, 8, and 5, this fall.

“Mandated masks, as well as rigid and arbitrary rules and requirements regarding the use and location of their bodies, will serve to dehumanize, disconnect, and intimidate students,” Cohen told me in a recent interview.

She is endeavoring to expand schooling alternatives in her area and is currently working to create a self-directed learning community for local homeschoolers that emphasizes nature-based, experiential education. “There is quite a lot of interest,” she says.

According to a recent USA Today/Ipsos poll, 60 percent of parents surveyed said they will likely choose at-home learning this fall rather than send their children to school even if the schools reopen for in-person learning. Thirty percent of parents surveyed said they were “very likely” to keep their children home.

While some of these parents may opt for an online version of school-at-home tied to their district, many states are seeing a surge in the number of parents withdrawing their children from school in favor of independent homeschooling. From coast to coast, and everywhere in between, more parents are opting out of conventional schooling this year, citing onerous social distancing requirements as a primary reason.

Indeed, so many parents submitted notices of intent to homeschool in North Carolina last week that it crashed the state’s nonpublic education website.

Other parents are choosing to delay their children’s school enrollment, with school districts across the country reporting lower than average kindergarten registration numbers this summer.

School officials are cracking down in response.

Concerned about declining enrollments and parents reassuming control over their children’s education, some school districts are reportedly trying to block parents from removing their children from school for homeschooling.

In England, it’s even worse. Government officials there are so worried about parents refusing to send their children back to school this fall that the education secretary just announced fines for all families who keep their children home in violation of compulsory schooling laws. “We do have to get back into compulsory education and obviously fines sit alongside as part of that,” English secretary Gavin Williamson announced.

When school officials resort to force in order to ensure compliance, it should prompt parents to look more closely at their child’s overall learning environment. Parents have the utmost interest in ensuring their children’s well-being, both physically and emotionally, and their concerns and choices should be respected and honored.

After several months of learning at home with their children, parents may not be so willing to comply with district directives and may prefer other, more individualized education options. Pushed into homeschooling this spring by the pandemic, many parents are now going willingly, and eagerly, down this increasingly popular educational path.

By now, you probably already know about the massive Twitter hack that has taken place this evening where, in summary, the following has taken place:

• A massive hack which allegedly has originated at a Twitter employee with access to the user management panel was, has affected hundreds of billionaires and politicians, including Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Bill Gates, Kanye West, Elon Musk, Wiz Khalifa, Apple, Uber, Jeff Bezos, Benjamin Netanyahu

• Tweets urged people to send money to a Bitcoin address; over $113,000 has been sent so far

• Twitter has investigated and appears to have resolved most of the issue after taking down the offending Tweets and restoring access to the site for those with blue checkmarks, all of whom were previously shut down from the site

For the full details on the hack, you can read our report on it here.

But now, an even more sinister subplot is emerging from the ruins of Twitter’s reputation.

Sources that are “close to or inside” the underground hacking community have leaked a screenshot of what is allegedly an internal software panel used by Twitter to interact with user accounts, according to a late Wednesday night report from Vice. 

The tool is said to be used to help change ownership of popular accounts and, in the case of the hack, was said to play a role in usurping the high profile accounts involved. Here is a photo of the panel, with portions redacted by the leaker of the photo to Motherboard. 

The interesting thing is that screenshots of the supposed internal software are being aggressively pursued and deleted from Twitter by Twitter itself, with the company claiming that they violate the platform’s rules. In addition to being posted to Motherboard and Twitter, a similar image also appeared on a now deleted Tweet controlled by “Under the Breach”. They have since said their account has been suspended for 12 hours as a result of them posting it.

Of particular interest are the buttons labeled “SEARCH BLACKLIST” and “TRENDS BLACKLIST”. Could these be tools actively used by Twitter to censor what Tweets and topics appear during searches and on its trends page?

In other words, could this be the holy grail that all those who have accused Twitter over the years of shadowbanning conservative accounts, have been looking for?

“As per our rules, we’re taking action on any private, personal information shared in Tweets,” Twitter told Motherboard in response to inquiries about the screenshot, and its deletion or suspension of any account that posted it.

While we cannot confirm independently that the screenshot is, in fact, from Twitter’s development/moderator tools, it certainly would open up a whole new can of worms regarding the hack if it turns out to be.

For example, back in 2018, when Jack Dorsey took the Hill in Washington, D.C. to address the notion that Twitter could be disproportionately shadowbanning conservative voices on its site, Dorsey claimed that Twitter “believed strongly in being impartial”, according to Vox:

Pressed again and again to admit to Twitter showing some type of bias, either systemic or personal, Dorsey consistently demurred. At one point, he sidestepped giving information, when challenged, about whether his own personal political leanings are liberal; at another, he refused to concede that President Trump’s Twitter account might be in violation of Twitter’s general content policies. “We believe strongly in being impartial,” Dorsey said, “and we strive to enforce our rules impartially.”

He also told Congress that Twitter’s algorithms did not have a liberal bias:

In response, Dorsey repeatedly explained that the algorithm had no inherent political bias and was simply sorting Twitter content on the basis of numerous behavior signals from the accounts it was reviewing.

Perhaps the algorithms don’t – but maybe those manually using this alleged interface do?

Regardless, once people are done asking how this unprecedented hack could have happened in the first place, we wouldn’t be surprised if attention turns to how these moderation tools, if they truly exist, are being implemented.

Judging by the Chinese stock market, Chinese credit impulse data, and Chinese PMIs, tonight’s GDP data should be a big winning rebound proving the communist nation has overcome the viral enemy and is back on its path to global economic domination.

Source: Bloomberg

The “v-shaped” recovery in all the PMIs is rather impressively well managed…

Source: Bloomberg

And Total Social Financing is soaring at a record pace…

Source: Bloomberg

And while trade data rebounded surprisingly in June (as it stepped up efforts to meet the terms of the U.S. trade deal), it remains well down from 2019 in the first six months of 2020, but rebounds are expected to continue to accelerate in all the other macro data released tonight, though most are still expected to be notably lower YoY.

Going into the data, the upturn in industrial production is the clearest sign that the Chinese economy expanded in 2Q after cratering in 1Q due to the COVID-19 impact, said Bloomberg Economics’ Chang Shu.

“Even so, weakness in private and external demand means the pace of growth is likely to be well below historical levels.”

“Even so, the revival in consumption probably remains a long way off, given changes in behavior to the detriment of contact-intensive services, as well as stress in the labor market and dented incomes.”

So here’s the data:

• Q2 China GDP YoY BEAT +3.2% vs +2.4% exp and -6.8% in Q1

A much stronger than expected rebound (up a record 11.5% QoQ)…

• June China Industrial Production YTD YoY BEAT -1.3% vs -1.5% exp and -2.8% in May

• June China Retail Sales YTD YoY MISS -11.4% vs -11.2% exp and -13.5% in May

• June China Fixed Asset Investment YTD YoY BEAT -3.1% vs -3.3% exp and -6.3% in May

• June China Property Investment YTD YoY BEAT +1.9% vs +1.0% exp and -0.3% in May

• June China Surveyed Jobless Rate BEAT 5.7% vs 5.9% exp and 5.9% in May

So, the good news is that GDP rebounded faster than expected, but the bad news is retail sales continued to contract YoY(-1.8% in June against expectations of a 0.5% expansion)…

The biggest disappointment was a contraction in large enterprise retail sales (-0.4% YoY in June vs +1.3% YoY in May) as the rebound stalls.

As Bloomberg’s Jeff Black points out, that tells us the recovery is still industry-led, and consumer confidence is still very fragile. That means China’s recovery will be harder to sustain if the world increasingly goes back into lockdown.

Offshore Yuan is back at 4-month highs…

Bloomberg’s Enda Curran notes that one big question remains, is it a rebound or a recovery.

Sceptics will argue that China’s GDP number will overstate the recovery while others say it reflects the rebound seen in underlying indicators on manufacturing, investment and consumption. But all sides will agree that even if GDP turned positive last quarter, it’s still a long way from a full recovery. We know China’s jobs market is under pressure and we know that the rest of the world remains in a funk. Both of which are clear brakes on China getting back to where it was before the crisis.

And for those who see tonight’s data and brush it off as implying the next stimulus move is imminent by Chinese officials, Shang-Jin Wei, a China expert at Columbia Business School in New York and formerly chief economist of the Asian Development Bank, warns:

“Prevention of a return or the ‘second wave’ of the virus outbreak is more important than getting a high growth rate for the remainder of the year.”

Additionally, with virus second-wave fears and the Trump administration back in sanction mode and seemingly less inclined to support Phase 1 of the trade deal, let alone Phase 2, perhaps the biggest “V” is now behind China; and none of the China growth is helped by an increasing number of runs of China’s banks.

China’s bank runs have begun. At precisely the time when Chinese banks need any and all cash flow to pay for severe loan losses, the State Council demands 1.5 trillion rmb (75% of 2019 profits!) from banks to “help the economy”.

— 🇺🇸Kyle Bass🇺🇸 (@Jkylebass) July 15, 2020

And as Bloomberg’s David Ingles notes succinctly, most of the things you’ve seen in the news and will continue to see in the decades to come can be traced back to this one, single chart…

This won’t end well.