Category: zerohedge

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

OK, now I get it. Take a couple tabs of Euphorestra and Hopium, and stick to talking about making money in the market. Greed won’t offend anyone.

So I started to tell my buddy about my new screenplay idea: “There’s a global pandemic, and when they rush a bunch of vaccines to market, then….”

“Stop right there–even talking about vaccines will get you renditioned to a hellhole in one of the ‘stans.”

“But it’s just fiction.”

“You can argue with your guard in the hellhole, just before they haul you off to be waterboarded.”

“Jeez, has everything really gotten that crazy? OK, never mind. Anyway, I’m working on a little nostalgic story about the good old days when we plinked cans with our .22 rifles…”

“Don’t mention guns. Doesn’t matter who you talk to, somebody will get upset.”

“But this was in the mountains, nobody around, just single-shot .22s.”

“Doesn’t matter. You’ll lose friends or make new enemies just mentioning guns. Forget it.”

“OK, if you say so. Hey, did you read about that proposal for the Supreme Court?”

“Are you trying to get people to hate on you? Never bring up politics and the Supreme Court, it’s a sewage sandwich. Whatever you say will unleash hell.”

“Dang, is it really so insane out there? I think you’re getting psycho-paranoid.”

“Don’t ever joke about anything related to mental illness. That’s super-taboo.”

“Anyways, I was reading an article about cryptos and energy consumption, and–“

“Never bring up cryptos except privately, it’s like a religious war. You’ll get burned at the stake one way or the other.”

“Has everyone forgotten what Thomas Merton said, ‘The beginning of love is to let those we love be perfectly themselves’?”

“Merton was a Christian, right? Don’t bring up Christianity, that’ll get you crucified. If you want to talk about religion, talk about Zoroastrianism, but only to people who don’t know anything about it.”

“This is nuts! What can I talk about? The weather?”

“Nope, never bring up the weather unless you want to lose friends and make new enemies. The word “weather” means global warming now, and there you go, down the rathole to hell again.”

“OK Mr. Smart-Guy. What isn’t taboo yet? A movie I saw?”

“No way, that’s guaranteed to set off a firestorm because every movie has a subtext that offends someone. And if you praise a comedy, that’s offensive to everyone who’s offended on behalf of the offended.”

“Don’t tell me that bringing up the killer burrito I had at that taco truck down by the harbor–“

“Are you joking? It’s cultural appropriation even mentioning an ethnic food, and the word ‘killer’ is verboten–just another example of the normalization of violence.”

“Is there anything that isn’t taboo?”

“As far as I can tell, only one thing: minting money in the market. Talk about options and penny stocks, you’re golden with everyone. Those who scored big gains are gloating, and those who missed out want in.”

“So greed and folly are the only non-taboo topics left?”

“Yes, greed is still good, but only if you’re bullish and upbeat. If you’re bearish, forget it. You’re better off in the rendition hellhole in the ‘stans.”

“OK, now I get it. Take a couple tabs of Euphorestra and Hopium, and stick to talking about making money in the market. Greed won’t offend anyone.”

“Correct. At least until the bubble pops. After that, better stick with kittens and puppies.”

*  *  *

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It’s been a very bad month for SPACs: last week we pointed out that the SPAC Bubble may have popped as the “Flood Of New SPAC IPOs Hit A Brick Wall.” In the article, we said that the flood of recent SPACs which through the end of March was a non-stop torrent…

… had come and gone, spelling trouble for the broader market for initial public offerings with just three SPACs listing last week,, following just a pair of IPOs by SPACs last week which was a collapse from the more than 20 deals a week during most of the year.

There was much more pain to come for SPACs, however, and as we reported earlier this week, out of the blue the SEC lobbed an accounting bomb at the SPAC frenzy, when it began privately telling accountants that warrants, which are issued to early investors in the deals, might not be considered equity instruments. As Bloomberg explained, the proposed changes could result in warrants being considered a liability for accounting purposes, a shift which would spell a massive nuisance for accountants and lawyers, who are hired to ensured SPACs are in compliance with the agency.

Simply put, as Bloomberg concluded, “the communications mean that filings for new SPACs may not go forward until the warrants issue is addressed.”

So, in a dramatic reversal as Bloomberg’s ECM team reported, special-purpose acquisition companies may have become the hottest must-have for business tycoons, celebrities and even athletes, but old-school initial public offerings have quietly outperformed them this year.

More than 330 blank-check firms have listed in 2021, mostly in the U.S., making up just over a third of global IPO activity, data compiled by Bloomberg show. They join the 300 SPACs already floated last year, sparking concern among investors about their potential to find suitable acquisition targets and increased competition for the most attractive assets in the market.

One place where there is a profound difference is in the early returns: this year’s SPACs are trading up about 1.2% on average on an offer-to-date basis, whereas regular IPOs have gained 36%. The strong performance for traditional listings, Bloomberg said, “signals there is brisk appetite for new companies coming to market, while investor sentiment toward SPACs is cooling.” This is precisely what we said last week.

Early this year retail traders helped fuel a strong rally in SPAC stocks amid reports of several potential deals. Since reaching a peak in late February, the U.S. IPOX SPAC index, which tracks U.S. blank-check stocks, has tumbled 21%.

“The billions of dollars that have flown into SPACs over the past year means there’s much more competition for attractive takeover targets, which diminishes the prospects of lofty returns for blank-check firms,” said Stephane Monier, chief investment officer at Lombard Odier & Cie.

According to Bloomberg, this could be good news for Europe, where blank-check listings are only beginning to trickle in. On Tuesday, Berlin-based venture capital firm 468 Capital announced a SPAC in Frankfurt, set to become only the seventh such deal in the region over the past 12 months. At the same time, Europe enjoyed its biggest-ever first quarter for proceeds from regular IPOs this year.

It is too soon to truly assess SPAC performance, though there is some damping of investor euphoria, said Shaunak Mazumder, a global equities fund manager at Legal & General Investment Management. These shares are only expected to pick up after announcing a deal, he said.

Still, even the SPACs that have agreed to buy a target recently have elicited a disappointing market reaction, signaling waning investor interest. After announcing the $40 billion purchase of Singapore-based Grab Holdings Inc. on Tuesday, shares of Altimeter Growth Corp. rallied 10%, but remain 15% below a January high.

Meanwhile, 2021’s regular IPOs have provided some stellar returns for investors. Kuaishou Technology, this year’s largest deal globally, has surged 125% since listing in Hong Kong in February. In the U.S., online courses provider Coursera Inc. is up 56% and dating app developer Bumble Inc. trades 38% higher, while bootmaker Dr. Martens has jumped 28% since its London debut.

And now, as we noted above, the SEC is also cracking down on how accounting rules apply to the warrants issued along with shares in blank-check offerings, new filings in their biggest market New York will be further disrupted.

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

The International Monetary Fund has published its April outlook for the global economy. It has been hailed by most commentators due to the strong upgrade in GDP recovery. The report states that “global growth is projected at 6% in 2021, moderating to 4.4% in 2022. The upward revision reflects additional fiscal support in a few large economies, the anticipated vaccine-powered recovery in the second half of 2021, and continued adaptation of economic activity to subdued mobility”.

However, there are important warning signs that should be considered because headlines have been predominantly euphoric about this optical upgrade.

Two factors that affect the quality of the recovery should worry us:

1. The upgrade comes mostly from higher government spending and rising debt, and

2. the job recovery is much slower than in previous cycles.

The unemployment rate in the euro area will remain well above 2019 levels even in 2022 (rising from 7.9% in 2020 to 8.3% in 2022). Only Germany shows a positive employment outlook that leads its unemployment ratio to fall to 3.7%. Spain, on the opposite side, will end, according to IMF estimates, with unemployment of 15.8% in 2022 from 15.5% in 2020. This would make Spain the eurozone economy with the highest unemployment rate even in 2022 and one of the highest in the world.

The United States is estimated to end 2022 with a 4.2% unemployment rate, a rapid decrease from the current 6%, but still above pre-pandemic levels. China unemployment is expected to remain low at 3.6% and advanced Asia will likely show the best improvement in unemployment, reaching nearly record lows in 2022.

Even with these optimistic estimates of recovery, the IMF is showing that the covid-19 crisis is going to leave millions of workers left behind, and that it will be particularly negative in an area that prides itself on social policies and high public spending, the eurozone.

This crisis has proven that being rich and having a very elevated government spending did not help manage the health and economic crisis better.

The biggest loser of this crisis has been the middle class. According to Bloomberg, an estimated 150 million slipped down the economic ladder in 2020, the first pullback in almost three decades. Massive liquidity injections and large government spending programs have not helped the middle class, and we could argue that it created a negative effect. Why? The middle class has been the most negatively affected by the loss of employment while its savings and real wages have been eroded by inflation as central banks pumped trillions into government debt, creating a perverse spiral of rising prices when disposable real income fell dramatically.

We could argue that it would have been worse without central bank intervention and government spending, but there is absolutely no evidence that shows it should have been as massive and indiscriminate as it was in 2020. We have been told to ignore the size of stimulus or its effectiveness and just accept these massive repurchase and spending programs as essential. No one seems to ask how much is too much and even less when the results are a bloated GDP recovery due to debt and public expenditure with a poor job recovery ratio. As time passes, we have grown used to hear of “ trillion dollar stimulus” and think it is not enough.

This poor return on capital employed of government and central bank programs would result in lay-offs of management in any company. We are not discussing diminishing returns of monetary and fiscal policy, but outright negative effects if we add asset bubbles and high leverage.

Any serious analyst would be appalled at the figures of unemployment and growth shown by the IMF after spending close to twenty trillion in chained stimuli. Furthermore, any serious analyst would be seriously warning about the negative consequences of making central banks and government the lender of first resort, not the last resort. What is the biggest risk? That the 2022 estimates prove to be too optimistic, again, and governments and central banks push to an even higher level of interventionism.

The destruction of the free market, competition and innovation may seem appealing to some now, but the likely outcome of poor employment, negative real wage growth and stagnation should be a real cause of concern.

It was announced Thursday that Russia will close off the Kerch Strait to all foreign warships for six months amid rising Ukraine tensions, and after the US threatened to send additional warships to the area. The Kerch Strait is the vital, narrow waterway connecting the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, and which importantly connects southern Russia to “annexed” Crimea.

“Putin will close the Kerch Strait beginning next week until October, blocking foreign warships that are conducting military exercises, including the US, the Ukraine foreign ministry said Thursday,” The New York Post reported. 

The move has enraged Ukraine, which is now accusing Russia of seeking to ‘illegally’ block its ships – especially naval vessels – from accessing the Black Sea, and has protested what it says is a severe violation of norms of ‘freedom of navigation.

Ukraine’s foreign ministry said “such actions by the Russian Federation are another attempt to violate the norms and principles of international law to usurp the sovereign rights of Ukraine as a coastal state, as Ukraine has the right to regulate navigation in these areas of the Black Sea.”

Moscow has since underscored that it will not impact regional trade, particularly the regional grain trade for which the strait serves as a vital passageway, and that the closure is necessary for “military exercises”. Reuters on Friday cited state sources to detail the following:

The right of passage of foreign warships and “other state ships” will be suspended in three spots near Crimea’s Black Sea coast from April 24 until October 31, RIA said, citing Russia’s defence ministry.

Russia says the strait is not closed to commercial and trade vessels. The closure comes after the Kremlin warned American naval ships to stay away from approaching the Crimea “for their own good”.

Meanwhile, akin to the major 25 November 2018 naval “ramming” incident which saw Ukrainian navy personnel arrested and detained by Russian patrol boats in the Kerch Strait, there’s been new hostile encounters between the two sides this week in the same area, with Ukraine’s military charging that Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) tried to aggressively block its vessels.

“Russian FSB boats once again attempted to obstruct the legitimate actions of the Ukrainian Navy’s boat group on combat duty tonight,” the Ukrainian Navy said Thursday. “Despite the Russians’ provocations and the targeted actions, the Ukrainian Navy submarine tactical group continued to perform its tasks.”

All of this points to the increasing likelihood of a new major ‘Kerch Strait incident’ brewing… which could see yet more direct Russia-Ukraine naval clashes, akin to Fall of 2018 and other similar hostile encounters of the past years. 

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

Advisors to the government in the UK, which has mostly been under varying degrees of lockdowns for more than a year now and is supposed to be emerging from the last of the restrictions, have said that there may have to be further lockdowns in order to stop new coronavirus variants.

The London Independent reports:

…a top scientist advising the government has said local restrictions may need to be reintroduced if surge testing fails to halt the spread of the South African Covid variant.

Professor John Edmunds, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told ITV’s Peston show that if mass testing events, such as those currently underway in Southwark and Barnet in London, “don’t work that well … then it’s possible we’ll have to impose some sort of local restrictions back in place and nobody wants to do it”.

A similar report in the Telegraph notes that lockdowns may have to be localised to different streets to prevent outbreaks of new variants.

Dr Jeffrey Barrett, director of the Covid-19 Genomics Initiative at the Wellcome Sanger Institute told the BBC that shutting down individual streets “certainly could” help prevent the spread of the virus “because one of the trickiest parts of this virus overall is, of course, some individuals who are infected don’t have symptoms and so they can transmit.”

“Trying to use interventions that might stop asymptomatic transmission may well be an important part of keeping outbreaks of these new variants to be as absolutely small as possible,” Barrett added.

He also suggested that there is a “chance” new variants will be “less well neutralised” by vaccines, adding that it is “restrictions” that have helped contain outbreaks.

That rhetoric echos what Prime Minister Boris Johnson said earlier this week when he stated that it is lockdowns, rather than vaccinations that have caused a reduction in cases of the virus:

“The reduction in numbers… has not been achieved by the vaccination programme… the bulk of the work in reducing the disease has been done by the lockdown”

PM Boris Johnson says there will be more deaths as rules ease, as he urges public to be cautioushttps://t.co/6z0BJzc6y3 pic.twitter.com/iy8Bo0xbWz

— BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) April 13, 2021

Both government advisors mentioned above also advocated so called ‘surge testing’, yet as noted earlier this week, the vast majority of positive results from rapid testing are likely false:

Oh. https://t.co/cQIYXeVYXM

— Paul Joseph Watson (@PrisonPlanet) April 15, 2021

As we have tirelessly documented, lockdowns are not an effective means of preventing the spread of any virus, and come with many other disastrous consequences.

Many people struggle to accept that lockdowns don’t have any impact on Covid outbreaks. After all, isn’t it obvious that keeping people apart stops the spread? Here are seven peer-reviewed studies that say no, it’s not. https://t.co/jODXsvDpVG

— Toby Young (@toadmeister) April 15, 2021

As the UK begins to reopen, we are seeing a further enforcement of restrictions with the likes of ‘COVID marshals’ being put back onto the streets to report people to the police for not properly social distancing.

It appears to be becoming clearer that this nightmare is never going to end.

Iran on Friday has announced its latest nuclear fait accompli, saying that it’s obtained for the first time ever 60% enriched uranium overnight. This marks the highest level of purity the Islamic Republic has ever enriched to, and has no doubt put the US and European countries negotiating in Tehran on edge.

Particularly Israel has warned it will take action to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons capability, which requires 90% enrichment, which Iranian leaders this week have warned is indeed obtainable “if we wanted to” – according to the latest remarks from President Hassan Rouhani. 

Tehran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf made the Friday announcement in a Tweet, writing, “I am proud to announce that at 00:40 last night, and on the night of the pilgrimage of Sayyid al-Shuhada, young and pious Iranian scientists were able to obtain a product of 60% enriched uranium.”

Qalibaf added: “Congratulations to the brave people of Islamic Iran on this success.”

The Islamic Republic said this is the necessary response to Sunday Natanz nuclear facility sabotage attack, which has been widely blamed on Israel. An Israeli intelligence official also told The New York Times that the Jewish state was indeed behind it.

It appears also part of Iran’s latest efforts to pile on the leverage for Washington to drop Trump-era crippling sanctions on the country immediately if the US hopes to restore the JCPOA nuclear deal. 

An apparent response to @SecBlinken ’s remark yesterday in response to a question (about Natanz explosion, Vienna talks, and 60% enrichment) that “It remains to be seen whether Iran has that same seriousness of purpose (as the U.S.)” https://t.co/Mop9FyVMO9

— Hooman Majd (@hmajd) April 15, 2021

Iran is now warning that it doesn’t plan to let nuclear negotiations “drag on” and has threatened to cut talks short if they are “not constructive”. 

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei weighed in on this note with forceful words on Wednesday, saying,  “The talks shouldn’t become talks of attrition,” and that they “shouldn’t be in a way that parties drag on and prolong the talks. This is harmful to the country.” 

Authored by Rick Rozoff via AntiWar.com, 

On Thursday Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky seconded a statement by Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili that “it is time for concrete proposals for Ukraine and Georgia to obtain a NATO MAP and a plan to join the EU.” The two countries have been paired as partners for future NATO membership, with both being promised membership in the global military bloc at the NATO summit in Bucharest, Romania in 2008.

Ukraine’s ambassador to Germany, Andriy Melnyk, seconded Zelensky’s demand that NATO admit Ukraine as a full member, stating that only that move would prevent a Russian invasion: “The only possibility for this [to prevent alleged invasion plans] is for Ukraine to finally become a NATO member.”

He also claimed that had his country been in NATO in 2014 the secession of Donetsk, Lugansk and Crimea would not have occurred; neither would the now seven-year was in the Donbass. He neglected to state whether the U.S.-engineered uprising and overthrow of an internationally-recognized government would also have occurred. Most likely not, as the populations of NATO nations are not allowed to elect, or if elect, keep any government Washington and Brussels view with disapprobation.

The envoy then made this provocative statement:

“Ukraine has no other choice: either we are part of an alliance such as NATO and are doing our part to make this Europe stronger, or we have the only option – to arm by ourselves, and maybe think about nuclear status again. How else can we guarantee our defense?”

He also claimed there were 90,000 Russian military personnel deployed to the Donbass border and to Crimea; in his words, “We are dealing with the largest troop movement in Russia since the Second World War.” Which is arrant nonsense.

When the Soviet Union was dissolved in 1991 a third of total Soviet nuclear weapons were in Ukraine; with 1,700 warheads in the country it had the third largest nuclear arsenal in the world after the US and Russia.

In 1994 Ukraine joined the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons as a non-nuclear-weapon nation. It’s that decision the above-cited ambassador suggested be reversed. In fairness, this isn’t the first time the question of Ukraine developing its own nuclear weapons capacity has been broached.

Over the past twenty years NATO-trained military leaders have raised the issue. But never before, and never during a crisis remotely comparable to the present one, has the issue been phrased so brutally: either place Ukraine under NATO Article 5 mutual military assistance status – and NATO acknowledges itself a nuclear alliance – or Ukraine will reassert itself as a nuclear power.

The shelling of the Donbass will be mild in comparison to what an armed conflict between a nuclear Ukraine and nuclear Russia would portend.

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

It might sound like “US exceptionalism” to point this out (…and how very dare I), but even if the globalist Reset is successful in every other nation on Earth, the globalists are still failures if they can’t secure and subjugate the American people. As I’ve noted many times in the past, most of the world has been sufficiently disarmed, and even though we are seeing resistance in multiple European nations against forced vaccination legislation and medical tyranny, it is unlikely that they will have the ability to actually repel a full on march into totalitarianism. Most of Asia, India and Australia are already well under control. Africa is almost an afterthought , considering Africa is where many suspect vaccines are tested.

America represents the only significant obstacle to the agenda.

Conservative Americans in particular have been a thorn in the side of the globalists for generations, and it really comes down to a simple matter of mutual exclusion: You cannot have an openly globalist society and conservative ideals at the same time in the same place. It is impossible.

Conservatives believe in limited government, true free markets, individual liberty, the value of life, freedom of speech, private property rights, the right to self defense, the right to self determination, freedom of religion, and the non-aggression principle (we won’t harm you unless you try to harm us). None of these ideals can exist in a globalist world because globalism is at it’s core is the pursuit of a fully centralized tyranny.

There are people on this planet that are not satisfied to merely live their lives, take care of their families and make their mark peacefully. They crave power over all else. They desperately want control over you, over me, over everything, and they will use any means at their disposal to get it. I would compare it to a kind of drug addiction; globalists are like crack addicts, they can never get enough power, there is always something more to take.

They tell themselves and others that they are “philanthropists”, that “they know what is best” for the rest of us. They believe themselves superior and therefore it is their “destiny” to dictate and micro-manage society for the “greater good” of us all. But really, when we witness their methods it becomes clear that they have no noble aspirations. They have no empathy or honor. They don’t care about the average human being, or the environment, or the economy or society in general. They only care about themselves and their delusions of grandeur. These people are a cancer on the rest of civilization.

They seem to be particularly obsessed with deconstructing and sabotaging America in the pursuit of their global Reset. Real philanthropists would not have a problem if someone didn’t want to accept their “charity”, but psychopaths cannot abide a group of people rejecting them and their ideology. You are not allowed to walk away from them. You are not allowed to do things your own way. You must be forced to comply. The agenda only works if EVERYONE submits.

Unfortunately for the globalists, the Reset is not working out for them everywhere. In the US, the agenda is failing miserably compared to Asia and parts of Europe.

As the head of the World Economic Forum, Klaus Schwab, is so fond of reminding us, the Covid pandemic is the “perfect opportunity” to push forward the globalist plans for a total Reset of human economy and society. To the globalists, the crisis is a panacea, a doorway to their version of a better world. They love the pandemic, they are not distressed by it.

The problem is, it’s not doing enough damage or terrifying enough people.

Consider the Event 201 coronavirus pandemic simulation – It was held by the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation only two months before the real thing “coincidentally” happened in early 2020. The pandemic war game was less about saving lives and more about how the elites planned to keep the public under control. The suppression of alternative media and censorship in social media was discussed at great length. Dissenting voices need to be silenced if the Reset is going to prevail.

One factor within the Event 201 simulation that never played out, though, was the WEF projections on deaths. The war game suggested at least 65 million initial deaths due to the pandemic. Early projections on the death rate suggested 2% to 3% of the population or more. The same projections were repeated by the UN’s World Health Organization when the real pandemic was first revealed to the public.

Instead, Covid-19 has been a letdown for the globalists, with a tiny death rate of around 0.26% outside of nursing homes. Meaning, 99.7% of the population has nothing to worry about from covid. Millions of Americans are becoming savvy to the situation and are refusing to comply with mandates over a virus that is a non-threat.

Instead of backing off of the Reset scheme, the globalists are continuing to double down. Why? Because they have no other choice. They let the cat out of the bag and bloviating big-mouths like Klaus Schwab told the world exactly what the plan is. If they retreat now, they might NEVER get another chance to implement a world centralization plan; a massive grift which requires medical tyranny in order to prevent rebellion.

You see, if the death rate had been dramatically higher than 0.26% and covid represented a legitimate threat, then maybe a larger portion of the US population would have been on board with longer term restrictions and medical passports. Maybe not. The fact remains that 40% of deaths have been in nursing homes among patients with preexisting illnesses, the death rate outside of these facilities is minimal, the mask mandates have been proven completely ineffective and the states that have remained open and removed mask mandates have FALLING death and infection rates when compared to states that are enforcing lockdowns.

The fear narrative is falling apart. States across the US are opening and are refusing to implement useless mandates. In my home state of Montana, legislators and the governor are passing laws that forbid the enforcement of medical passports. Even major corporations are not allowed to demand vaccine passports from customers or employees.

On top of that, 40% to 50% of the US population in polls are refusing to comply with the vaccine rollout or medical passports. Why take a vaccine for a virus that 99.7% of the population is unaffected by anyway?

The jig is up. The globalists are going to need another crisis if they hope to enforce further lockdowns in the US, along with medical passports and disarmament. Do not be surprised if there is more engineered chaos going into the summer months. But what will the next crisis look like? I think we are already seeing the signs…

Covid Mutations

The mainstream media is pushing a non-stop narrative of covid mutation hype. We hear about UK and Brazilian variants on a weekly basis, and the assertion has been that surely, these variants will be more infectious and more deadly that the original virus. There is still no proof whatsoever to confirm this, but the globalists only care about planting the idea in people’s heads. They only care about reigniting the fear.

My feeling is that this strategy is going to fail, at least in the US. Too many Americans are aware of the con game, and a new virus threat is not going to have the same effect as Covid-19 did in the early months of the pandemic. None of us really knew what we were facing back then, and caution was a practical response. Today, we know for a fact that covid is not a concern for the vast majority of the public. Media attempts to amp up the threat will be ineffective, but they will of course still try.

BLM Riots

This is the next obvious tactic on the part of the establishment. Numerous state officials are openly supporting renewed riots across the country due to a recent police shooting in Minnesota. The shooting itself was accidental, with the suspect violently resisting arrest and leaping into his car. A female officer grabbed her pistol in a panic instead of her taser and fired.

This event had nothing to do with racism, and nothing to do with police brutality. But, that’s not stopping Marxist groups like BLM from taking advantage and making it all about “white supremacy”. The real danger of unrest, however, will arrive at the closing of the Derek Chauvin trail.

With the trail coming to an end, evidence has been revealed that George Floyd was involved in heavy drug use and the medical examiner indicated that this along with heart disease were contributing factors to Floyd’s death. A “speed ball” containing Fentanyl was also discovered in the back of the police cruiser in which Floyd was originally restrained. So, even if Derek Chauvin’s knee to the neck tactic helped kill Floyd, it is unlikely that a jury will convict him of 1st or 2nd degree murder based on the evidence. Any lesser charges will undoubtedly trigger more BLM riots.

Conveniently, these powderkeg events are taking place at the onset of the warm spring and summer months, which is prime time for riots.

My concern is that civil unrest will be allowed to spread and fester in the US until regular citizens start taking matters into their own hands. And, of course, any community that tries to defend itself against looting and destruction will be accused of “racist aggression” – At which time the Biden Administration will then try to assert the authority to institute martial law measures in various regions. This combined with renewed attempts at covid lockdowns is a highly likely scenario.

Cyber Polygon

Just as the Event 201 simulation of a coronavirus pandemic preceded the real thing by only two months, there are concerns that the next World Economic Forum simulation event will also be a precursor to another crisis.

Cyber Polygon is a war game being held by the WEF this July which is meant to simulate a major cyber attack on the global supply chain and the economic system. There has been endless discussion int the media the past year building up fears of cyber attacks by Russia, China, Iran and even North Korea.

In terms of supply chain threats, I’m not sure exactly how a cyber attack could do much to disrupt global shipping, unless we are talking about another blockage in a major shipping route like the Suez Canal. But, a successful attack on stock exchanges in places like Wall Street could be devastating. I suggest watching this event carefully as it may be designed to precede a real cyber attack sometime this year.

Global War Tensions

The media and the Biden Administration are very busy trying to create tensions with Russia over Ukraine. There are renewed tensions between Iran and Israel and continued destabilization by the West in Syria. And, a rising danger of confrontation with China over Taiwan.

War could be the goal, or, the goal could merely be economic conflict. After all, China has already been dumping dollars and US treasuries the past year, and it would not take much to cause damage to the dollar’s world reserve status if China and Russia both diversified into a basket of currencies for global trade.

Beyond that, there are many advantages for globalists in creating regional wars and drawing Americans into pointless conflicts. For example, the threat of war could be used to institute a new draft. What better way to keep American men in particular busy and stop them from rebellion against the Reset than to draft them so they can die in a meaningless war overseas?

There is also a narrative advantage to global tensions; when presented with a foreign threat, are Americans more likely to reject notions of rebellion against government trespasses? I have no doubt that the establishment will try to claim the liberty movement is not a movement for freedom, but an “astro-turf” movement created by the Russians to destabilize America. This has been the leftist media propaganda strategy for years now; so why would they stop?

The bottom line is this: America is the primary target of the globalists because we are one of the only countries with the means and the numbers to stop them and the Reset. Until they are removed from the equation they will continue to throw crisis after crisis at us in order to wear us down and force us to accept totalitarianism. Do not get too comfortable in the fact that the pandemic agenda is failing here; stay alert and continue to organize your communities.

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A decentralized network of 3D printed gun advocates is mobilizing online and quickly revolutionizing gun designs, sharing blueprints, advice, and building a community. There’s no easy way the federal government can halt this movement as President Biden, not too long ago, declared war on “ghost guns.” 

YouTuber Sean with “The 3D Print General” attended “Bear Arms N’ Bitcoin” on April 10-11 in Texas. The first day involved top experts and practitioners that gave the audience actionable steps on how to print 3D guns at home. The second day, readers should be excited for this, was when Sean attended “shooting rad guns” day. 

The event was held at Onion Creek Gun Club, located in Austin, Texas. Sean shot various 3D-printed weapons, such as the FGC-9, which stands for “f**k gun control 9 mm.” As we’ve noted, the FGC-9 can be printed entirely at home for the cost of $350, including the printer’s cost. 

In the video “I Shoot a Bunch of 3D Printed Guns – Do My Hands Survive?” Sean test-fired an array of 3D-printed guns. In the last decade, the printing technology behind these weapons without serial numbers has drastically improved that it’s rare a gun explodes in someone’s hand as the early models did. Sean proves it; not one of these guns he fired at the range exploded in his hand. In fact, some of the weapons appeared to be high-tech or even futuristic. 

Without further adieu, here’s Sean test firing 3D printed weapons. 

When it comes to the Biden administration waging war on ghost guns  – well – good luck, what are they going to do – ban printers?

Authored by Fabian Ommar via The Organic Prepper blog,

The developed world, accustomed to safety, convenience, and comfort, is facing a slow-burning SHTF called Thirdworldization by some. Each time humankind faces some tribulation like the one we’re currently going through, it feels like the world is coming to an end. In many senses, the threat is present: a pandemic is a serious SHTF. It IS the end for many. 

But the real SHTF isn’t just the pandemic – it’s the effects on the system that Selco warned us about from the very beginning.

The ramifications of such events as Covid-19 and government responses are real and long-lasting. Despite theories surrounding COVID-19 (conspiratorial or not), the fact is real damage has happened to the economy and our lifestyle. To those who say we’ve been through a lot since March 2020, I’d argue we haven’t yet seen the full range of consequences. Objectively, we’re not even out of the pandemic.

The question remains: how and when will this Thirdworldization play out?

I concede this doom-and-gloom talk is growing old and burning out even among preppers. But we’re not talking probabilities: it’s already happening.

We must face reality and accept things are not going back to normal any time soon (if ever). It may indeed get worse before it starts getting better again. It’s past time to stop waiting for Black Swans and pay attention to subtle changes already underway.

It’s been a different SHTF for each country, each business, each family, and each person. On a more broad scale, there’s no way to tell for sure whether it will be a storm, “the” perfect storm,” or something in between. These things unfold slowly – the proverbial frog in the pot (until they catch up). As always, multiple interests and powerful forces are acting simultaneously in different directions, which means lots of possible ramifications.

Global crises affect countries in different intensities and manners

Global-scale SHTF hit some places faster and worse than others. Good and bad are never evenly distributed. The capacity of a nation and its population to withstand and overcome disaster depend on many factors. These include the size, strength, and resiliency of the economy. Also, how solid, functional, and credible the institutions are, the social fabric’s stability, etc. 

Those and others dictate whether a country will suffer more or less the effects of a global economic setback. But as it’s happening with the pandemic, no one will come out unscathed: some will feel the impact of migration, others (eventually) by war. At the same time, some will see internal conflicts, currency devaluation, martial law, coups, political instability, social eruptions, and more. Much of that is already taking place in various places around the globe.

It’s impossible to get the timing right or know what will happen, but trends can be forecast

These and other events are hitting differently even inside the same country: some regions are “normal,” while others suffer badly. That’s one of the factors driving the migrational movements within the U.S. Many people are moving to different states. People go wherever they receive better treatment.

You should already have a grip on your local zeitgeist. If you don’t, maybe it’s a good idea to start paying attention to the social, political, economic, and institutional moods in your piece of land. That will help tell which way things go when SHTF. You don’t want to get caught on the wrong side of the fence if it happens. 

And that’s how we get to Thirdworldization

Thirdworldization is a slow-burning SHTF for those living in developed countries, used to comfort, convenience, and security.

Thirdworldization is the gradual and inevitable impoverishment of a rich country. It is the visible effect of major crises hitting square on the population, institutions, corporations, and even the government. It spreads insidiously in every aspect of daily life and our small circles. 

Less growth means less wealth, less money circulating for everyone to take care of necessities and obligations. This shrinking economy brings all sorts of declines that affect services, infrastructure, the supply chain, institutions, and changing the population’s lives and routines.

The economy has a direct impact on the structure and foundation of social order. As an engineer, I tend to analyze structures and foundations by force of my work before assessing other factors. If those are in bad shape, the rest can’t be good. That holds true for a family, a company, a city, or a country.

The standard of living is dropping significantly everywhere

Even though the rich are getting richer, they will be affected by the destruction of the middle class and the poor becoming miserable. The wealthy don’t build their own houses, grow their own food, nor collect their own trash. But like rich countries and corporations, they’re much less affected because wealth can soften the blow and pay for a lot during hard times – or should I say, especially during hard times. 

For the rest (the great majority of society), there’s SHTF as the unfolding of the economic decline is reflected in various aspects as described below. 

Criminality

Crime on the rise is shocking America. Many factors contribute to that: joblessness, homelessness, financial struggle, disillusionment, and anger. Dwindling resources mean a reduction in the capacity of governments and authorities to keep society safe. There’s an overall defunding of not only the police but the entire crime-fighting apparatus: ostensive, preventative, and investigative work, departments of justice, social support, prisons and corrections, everything.

How it plays out: All kinds of crimes jump and tend to become more violent, too. Expect (and prepare for) rises in everything from minor scams to drug traffic (and consumption), bank robberies, kidnappings, arson, home invasions, homicides. Honest citizens may not engage in violent actions, but bribing, corruption, extortions, black market, misappropriations, tax evasion, and others become widespread. Sociopaths and psychopaths feel more emboldened: rapes, killings, vengeance acts, gang wars, fights, and similar also tend to increase. 

Homelessness

Homelessness exploded in the U.S. and other western countries in 2020. It’s still on the rise with no signs of getting better anytime soon. Some argue it’s not as bad as it would have been (and can become) without the aggressive forbearance and moratorium programs implemented by governments. But this has side effects. What will happen when these suspensions end? And if they extend, what will be the unintended consequences? It is hard to predict, but eviction waves could throw millions into the streets in months and years ahead if the crisis worsens. Homelessness can also get boosted by mass migration, as we’ll see below.

How it plays out: During the 1930’s Great Depression, cities everywhere saw the growth of squatter areas and shantytowns. New York’s Central Park became Hooverville, a giant slum right in the middle of America’s biggest and wealthiest city at the time. Whole areas in L.A., San Francisco, and many other towns across the U.S. have already become tent cities. These are ripe for crime, exploitation, drug trafficking, violence, disease, and political manipulation. 

Immigration

Immigration is serious and can turn into major geopolitical issues in some regions. Migration waves can be impossible to contain, as people desperately try to flee conflicted countries searching for better conditions elsewhere, even at great risks. Sudden, large internal movements can create imbalances internally and bring unforeseen consequences. People leave cities for the country or move to other states to avoid the rising taxes and crime, loss of freedom, or other threats.

How it plays out: Countries in better shape could face massive migration waves. The entire network of support put in place to control, minimize impacts, and give immigrants support can weaken. Significant or sudden movements may overwhelm border control. Immigrants in large numbers can cripple social support systems. That makes things harder for the population, sparking crime and violent actions from both sides.

Private Services and Products

Manufacturers and companies across the board are required to cut costs everywhere to stay afloat or keep profits. It reflects directly on the quality and variety of products and services provided to the population.

How it plays out: There will be an overall drop in quality and more inferior ingredients used to manufacture items and produce food. We will experience crowded, inefficient, slow customer support by poorly trained and low-paid workers. Strikes may cause disruptions and delays. 

Public Services

I have friends living in wealthy, developed countries. They complain a lot about the quality of public services, the bureaucracy, the inefficiency. Sure enough, it’s (almost always) subpar when compared to private counterparts. But they have no idea how good they have it compared to underdeveloped or even developing places. They don’t know how bad this can get. Is USPS’s announcement that First Class mail will have longer delivery times and will cost more a glimpse of things to come?

How it plays out: Overwhelmed systems, (even more) disincentivized agents. Longer lines, longer waiting, slow or no response, more bureaucracy, squandering, etc. Many welfare programs will go extinct. There will be lower-quality education, transportation, childcare, healthcare, etc. Strikes and corruption are other effects of the Thirdworldization of public services 

Infrastructure

Without constant investment in maintenance, expansion, and rebuilding, the entire infrastructure becomes derelict. More than 50 bridges have collapsed worldwide since 2015. Roads will be in dire need of maintenance. Billions of gallons of treated water get lost daily in leakages (estimates talk about one water main break every two minutes in the U.S.). There may be issues in the energy sector. Airports and ports will postpone expansions and modernizations, and so on.

How it plays out: Despite talks of megalomaniac infrastructure programs everywhere to “save the economy and promote growth” (governments love doing this when crises erupt), disruptions, rationing, supply rotations, closings, and more are much more frequent during prolonged recessions.

Sanitation

Trash removal and disposal drains a large portion of city and state budgets. As it happens to other public services, once tax revenue drops, these impacts and effects can drag on for years. Sewage and water treatment systems cease expansion and quality and safety drops. Does anyone remember the water crisis in Flint, Michigan, just five years ago?

“Nearly half a decade has passed since the water crisis in Flint captured the attention of America, during which toxic water was delivered to a city of nearly 100,000 people for 18 months before the state acknowledged the problem.”

How it plays out: Those who watched the movie Joker may remember the streets full of trash, rats, and graffiti. Many 80’s movies have that decadent “look and feel.” Dim cities, with boarded-up storefronts and “for rent” or “sale” signs everywhere. That’s the portrait of slow-burning SHTF. What’s missing in films is the smell, the diseases, the flies, rats, and insects present in real life. 

Inflation, Deflation, Taxation, and Confiscations

The inflation vs. deflation debate is raging among the macroeconomic experts right now. It’s a hard bet as there are pressures for both to turn out. And indeed, both could take place at the same time (in different areas). It’s that crazy. Prices are already all over the place, with inflation running hot in some items/sectors and deflation in others. Whatever happens, rest assured the “non-essentials” (that’s you, me, and the 99%) will be called to foot the bill, so get prepared for that.

How it plays out: Price fluctuations, insecurity, bank runs. Rises in fuel affect prices of everything else. Inflation can show in perversely subtle ways: dilutions and reductions in quantity/portions effectively raise products’ price. Shortages and a drastic reduction in product variety are other common effects of highly dysfunctional economies. Taxation will explode – this is already being talk-tested everywhere. 

Confiscations can happen, too. One day after taking office in 1990, the newly elected government in Brazil seized money from bank accounts “on grounds to reduce liquidity and fight rampant inflation.” The seizure left citizens without their savings and only 50k in currency. It was a stupid plan that didn’t work (it should’ve caused a revolution, but I digress). Such insanities have happened in other places in recent times. They could happen again because governments can become dictatorial and change laws and rules or do anything if conditions are in place (desperate times).

Some other third-world things that first-world people might not know about (yet)

Just like countries are affected differently, so do the various layers of society. High levels of inequality exacerbate some bizarre distortions people living in rich and developed countries might have only seen in dystopian movies. But the things listed below exist and could become a reality if things keep going south.

Social contract

Large social inequalities are incredibly poisonous: they destroy the social fabric faster than you can say “who messed with my stimulus check?”.

Two very adverse effects are radical divisiveness and a rise in crime and violence. It affects everybody, from top to bottom: trust in other people, institutions, and even in the collective disappears. It becomes impossible to lower the guard, and that is stressful. And even for those fortunate enough to get by okay, it sucks to live in a society where most of the population is struggling so hard (and failing) to live with a minimum of decency. How can someone be genuinely happy surrounded by misery? The answer is, no one can.

High Walls

In unsafe societies, every house and building has high (as in 10ft. tall or higher) protection walls, either masonry or steel bars, lockers, cameras, electrical fences, and barbed wire (concertina). For citizens accustomed to open front yards and unprotected houses, it looks like a bunch of high-security prisons (only it’s in reverse: the ones “locked” are the rich trying to stay safe from the violent mobs).

Slums

The “favelas” (slums) of Rio de Janeiro are worldwide famous, shown as “communities” where everyone is friendly and loves to dance to the samba. It is a vibrant and unique scene in some places, but the reality is that many are unsafe, unhealthy places where drug traffic and militia rule with iron hands. The government and public power have almost no presence and oversight: there’s little to no sanitation and safety, health, education, and other precarious services. If the standard of living drops for long enough, slums may become a lot more common in countries and places where they previously didn’t exist. 

Private security

Off-duty cops do double-duty as security agents or consultants for companies, commerce, and individuals, either as private guards, security personnel, or security consultants. It’s not legalized but also not enforced, nonetheless a big thing, an organized multimillion-dollar business with huge companies competing with each other. 

Armored vehicles

In 2014 Brazil already had the most extensive fleet of armored cars globally (not an enviable title). I’m not talking about expensive, luxury cars driven by (or for) the ultra-rich, high-profile personalities and figureheads: even the middle-class look for ballistic protection, especially for women and children. It’s a big industry here. Much bigger than in conflicted nations. Criminals are armed and violent, even against the police. When crime soars, the armoring industry booms. 

Preparing for the possibility of Thirdworldization

There are no downsides to investing in awareness, creativity, mentality, and determination (and some preparations).

These are not predictions. Perhaps a chronicle of what happens in poorer countries and has happened before in rich ones during crises. We can already see some signs and even developments, and if you believe this kind of SHTF is somehow coming your way, you may want to prepare. Here are few tips that might help:

• Mental strength: accept reality and learn to deal with all sides’ psychological pressures, including ourselves. Even though, at times, it may seem like there’s no option. As Churchill once said, “If you’re going through hell, just keep going.” Everyone is in this together, and no one is special. 

• One day and one problem at a time: It’s easier to deal with one issue, focus on what we can control, and live the present than it is to worry about the significant, long-term issues that are out of our control. We usually suffer more in imagination than in reality.

• Independence: Realistically, being independent and living off-grid is for a few. But everyone can benefit from growing more self-reliant wherever that is possible. Grow some food, learn new skills, recycle and reuse, invest in generating part of your power, build situational awareness, etc.

• Financially savvy: Seek economy and finance education as a way to mitigate or defend from inflation (or deflation), to invest and make money grow and last longer. Read about life in times of crises and inflation, like the ’70s and ’80s.

• Economically viable: Invest in alternative income sources. Today there are hundreds of ways to make money without even leaving home. Even a little can make a difference if the belts get tightened further.

• Help others: It will be hard for almost everyone but harder for some. If you are fortunate enough to be in a relatively good situation, look around and try to help others. It doesn’t have to be with money or goods: donate time, teach skills, even listening can bring support and relief. Helping others is a way to help ourselves, too.

Have you noticed a reduced standard of living in your area?

Have you seen a reduced standard of living in your area or a wider disparity between rich and poor? Are you noticing any of the Thirdworldization effects happening near you or are there some things you’ve seen on the news that surprised you when you realized they were happening here?