Category: zerohedge

Authored by Pat Buchanan via Buchanan.org,

If Western elites were asked to name the greatest crisis facing mankind, climate change would win in a walk.

Thus did Time magazine pass over every world leader to name a Swedish teenage climate activist, Greta Thunberg, its person of the year.

On New Year’s Day, the headline over yet another story in The Washington Post admonished us anew: “A Lost Decade for Climate Action: We Can’t Afford A Repeat, Scientists Warn.”

“By the final year of the decade,” said the Post, “the planet had surpassed its 2010 temperature record five times.

“Hurricanes devastated New Jersey and Puerto Rico, and floods damaged the Midwest and Bangladesh. Southern Africa was gripped by a deadly drought. Australia and the Amazon are ablaze.”

On it went, echoing the endless reports on the perils of climate change to the planet we all inhabit.

Yet, from the inaction of the carbon-emitting countries like India, China, Russia and the USA, the gravity with which Western elites view the crisis is not shared by the peoples for whom they profess to speak.

For many First World countries, there are more compelling concerns.

High among them is population decline, and, if birth rates do not rise, the near-extinction of many Western peoples by this century’s end.

Consider…

The number of births in Japan fell in 2019 to a level unseen since 1874, around 900,000. But there were 1.4 million deaths for a net loss of 512,000 Japanese. An even larger loss in Japan’s population is expected this year.

Japan’s population has been shrinking since 2007, when deaths first exceeded births by 18,000. And with 28% of its population over 65, and fewer births every passing year, Japan is aging, shrinking and dying — with no respite in sight.

Across Japan, writes The New York Times:

“Whole villages are vanishing as young people choose not to have children or move to urban areas … The Government estimates that the population could shrink by about 16 million people — or nearly 13 percent — over the next 25 years.”

South Korea has an even lower birth rate, and its population is expected to start diminishing this year.

But it is Eastern Europe where the population crisis is most advanced.

At the end of the Cold War, Bulgaria had 9 million people. By 2017, that had fallen to 7.1 million. In 2050, Bulgaria’s population is estimated at 5.4 million — a loss of 40% to death and migration since Bulgaria won its freedom from the Soviet Empire.

By 2050, Ukraine and Poland are each projected to lose another 6 million people, and Hungary will lose 1.5 million.

Lithuania and Latvia have seen serious population losses since the end of the Cold War and are in the front rank of European nations losing people at the fastest rate.

U.N. demographers project Russia’s population may fall from 145 million today to 121 million by 2050. Such losses rival those that Russia suffered under Lenin, Stalin and World War II.

The Far East is home to some 6 million Russians who dwell on that vast tract that is so full of natural resources like timber, oil and gas.

“The population continues to decrease almost everywhere in the Far East,” lamented President Vladimir Putin at an investment conference in Vladivostok:

“The inflow is increasing, but it does not cover the number of people leaving the region.”

In the Far East, Siberia and the Lake Baikal region, investors and workers from China are appearing in growing numbers.

The tribes of Europe, the peoples of almost every country of the Old Continent, are visibly aging, shrinking and dying. The population crisis of Europe is “existential,” says Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic.

Since this writer published “The Death of the West,” nothing has happened to alter my conclusion as to where the West was destined:

“The Death of the West is not a prediction of what is going to happen. It is a depiction of what is happening now. First World nations are dying. They face a mortal crisis, not because of something happening in the Third World, but because of what is not happening at home and in the homes of the First World. Western fertility rates have been falling for decades. Outside of Muslim Albania, no European nation is producing enough babies to replace its population. … In a score of countries the old are already dying off faster than the young are being born. … There is no sign of a turnaround. Now the absolute numbers of Europeans have begun to fall.”

We are talking here about what historians, a century hence, will call the Lost Tribes of Europe. And if a people has ceased to replace itself, and the national family is dying out, it is difficult to generate alarm over the slow sinking of the Maldives into the sea, the melting of the polar ice caps, or the fact that Greenland is getting greener every year.

Two weeks ago, when looking back at 2019, Morgan Stanley concluded that the observed market action was indicative of one of the most bizarre years ever, because while the S&P ended up returning a whopping 29% in 2019, just shy of 2013’s 29.3% and the second best year for the market since 1997, earnings actually dropped, which means that all the market upside came from multiple expansion. There was another bizarre aspect to 2019: it was a year when despite the blockbuster overall return of the S&P, “bullish” strategies actually underperformed.

Now, in his year in review weekly, Goldman’s David Kostin makes some observations of his own, and reaches a similar conclusion to that from Morgan Stanley.

For one the S&P 500, which soared started in early October, just around the time the Fed launched QE4, reached 35 new all-time highs last year, with 20 of those days coming in the last two months. US equities also bested other major global markets, outperforming Japan (15%), Europe (23%), and emerging markets (15%).

So far so good, yet what is more notable is how the market reached its impressive returns, and here Goldman confirms what we already knew, namely that valuation expansion drove nearly all of the S&P 500 return in 2019. To wit, according to Goldman earnings growth explains just 8% of the S&P 500 return last year (others disagree, and Morgan Stanley for example observes that earnings were actually negative in 2019 meaning earnings growth subtracted from total returns). Instead, as Kostin notes, “three 25 bp Fed cuts helped lift company valuations. The S&P 500 forward P/E expanded from 14x to 19x and accounted for 92% of the index price gain.”

But while it was largely known that the entire market gain was on the back of multiple expansion (and record buybacks), where things get far more interesting is the sectoral composition of the upside: here as Goldman notes, just one sector, Information Technology, posted a 50% total return and accounted for 32% of the S&P 500 index return. Financials contributed 14% to the index return, followed by Communication Services at 11%.

As a reminder, we also know who the source of stock buying was for most of 2019: companies themselves, which in 2018 and 2019 unleashed a record buyback spree, with IT, until recently sporting the most debt flexibility, buying back the most stock of any market sector funded with a tidal wave of debt issuance.

Away from tech, while all sectors posted positive double-digit returns, Energy fared the worst (+12%) due to weak earnings and volatile oil prices, although spot Brent rose by 23% during the year.

But what is most remarkable is just how skewed the market has become in representing the moves of just a handful of what Goldman calls large-cap “superstar” firms, which powered most of the S&P 500 return. While three Semiconductor companies – AMD (+148%), LCRX (+119%), and KLAC (+104%) – were the best-performing S&P 500 stocks, “superstar” firms AAPL (+89%) and MSFT (+58%) were the top two contributors to the S&P 500 index gain. In fact, combined the two firms accounted for nearly a fifth of the entire S&P 500 return, or 17% to be exact, in 2019. Extending that list, just the top 10 companies contributed over 10%, or exactly a third, of the S&P’s total 31% return.

Not all superstars soared: regulatory scrutiny and slowing growth weighed on other superstar firms, although it’s funny that Goldman says that GOOGL, which was up +28% and AMZN, up+23%, “lagged the index.” Because up 28% is just so disappointing. At the opposite end of the spectrum, ABIOMED (-48%), Macy’s (-38%), and Occidental Petroleum (-28%) were the worst performing S&P 500 constituents last year.

What else? Well, as Kostin writes, “the 10th anniversary of the bull market has drawn parallels to the late 1990s.”
Indeed, as discussed extensively here previously, in 1998, the Fed delivered 75 bp of “insurance cuts” and the S&P 500 rallied by 27%. And just like now, valuations exploded – from 18x to 23x – and accounted for nearly all of the index return. Furthermore, amid global economic turmoil – also just like now – investors flocked to US stocks. Back then, Russia defaulted on its sovereign debt and the hedge fund LTCM collapsed, as Treasury yields fell from 5.8% to 4.7%. And yes, just like now, Info Tech was also the best-performing sector (+77%) and accounted for 35% of index return.

Looking ahead, Goldman writes that “given the parallels between 1998 and 2019, many investors are looking to history as a potential guide for the future.” Specifically, in 1999, the S&P 500 rallied by 20%, a number which Goldman thinks may actually be conservative because unlike late 1990’s, the current forward P/E of 19x is well below the 23x P/E at the start of 1999. Relative to interest rates, the current earnings yield of 5.3% is 341 bp above the 10-year yield of 1.9%. At the start of 1999, the earnings yield of 4.4% was 26 bp below the Treasury yield of 4.7%.

In short, Goldman expects at least another year of superstar returns before the late 1990s comp ends… and everyone remembers what happened in 2000.

What may catalyze the second tech bubble bursting? Perhaps it will be the key political event of 2020 – the November presidential elections. As Goldman concludes, “looking ahead to 2020, politics will be the key focus for investors.”

Following the recent rally, we expect S&P 500 will hover around 3250 until November. Prediction markets currently imply that a divided government is the most likely election outcome. Democrats are expected to maintain control of the House (71%), and are slight favorites to win the presidency (52% probability), but appear unlikely to regain control of the Senate (30% likelihood). A divided government would limit the prospect that legislation is passed reversing the 2017 corporate tax cut.” 

And while Goldman expects the election to resolve policy uncertainty and lift S&P 500 by 5% to 3400 by year end, should there be a surprise and Democrats succeed in sweeping Washington, and eventually reversing the Trump tax cuts, under a higher corporate tax rate regime, 2021 estimated EPS would equal $162 (v. Goldman’s baseline estimate of $183), the P/E would compress to 16x, and S&P 500 would end at 2600.

Of course, now that Trump knows just how to manipulate the market, stocks may soon explode higher as the president dangles “optimism” over a Phase 2 deal, which may potentially push the S&P as high as 3,600 – 4,000 by the election, before the Fed finally admits it has blown the world’s biggest ever asset bubble and everything comes crashing down. The only question is whether Powell will follow the advice of Bill Dudley and burst the bubble before the election, or does so just after.

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Authorities in Australia are working on the premise that arsonists and lightning strikes are to blame for bushfires that have devastated numerous areas of the country, not “climate change” as many global warming alarmists have claimed.

Since November, the fires have struck various regions of the state of New South Wales, destroying thousands of buildings and killing at least 22 people.

Despite the fact that bushfires are not uncommon in Australia, the severity of the damage led numerous climate change alarmists to blame the disaster on man-made global warming.

Earlier this week, Bernie Sanders blamed those who were “delaying action on climate change” for “the blood-red sky and unbreathable air in Australia because of raging forest fires.”

However, according to those tasked with investigating the fires, climate change has nothing to do with it.

Police are now working on the premise arson is to blame for much of the devastation caused this bushfire season. A strike force will investigate whether blazes were deliberately lit, and bring those responsible to justice. https://t.co/TWh1KQycs4 @ebatten7 #NSWFires #7NEWS pic.twitter.com/Dul8dMFrZv

— 7NEWS Sydney (@7NewsSydney) January 3, 2020

“Police are now working on the premise arson is to blame for much of the devastation caused this bushfire season,” reports 7 News Sydney.

Authorities in the country have formed Strike Force Indarra, comprising of detectives from homicide and arson units in an attempt to find the culprits.

Other causes for the fires include lightning strikes and a natural weather phenomenon called Dipole, again neither of which have anything to do with man-made climate change.

Many bushfires are also actually caused by environmentalist ‘green’ policies which prevent land owners from clearing their own vegetation to protect themselves.

“Governments appeasing the green beast have ignored numerous state and federal bushfire inquiries over the past decade, almost all of which have recommended increasing the practice of “prescribed burning,” writes Miranda Devine. “Also known as “hazard reduction”, it is a methodical regime of burning off flammable ground cover in cooler months, in a controlled fashion, so it does not fuel the inevitable summer bushfires.”

As ever with climate change alarmists, they don’t let the facts get in the way of a good power grab.

*  *  *

My voice is being silenced by free speech-hating Silicon Valley behemoths who want me disappeared forever. It is CRUCIAL that you support me. Please sign up for the free newsletter here. Donate to me on SubscribeStar here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown.

We have been covering the global automotive recession for the better part of 18 months now and, while a lot of our focus has been on the slowdown in China, the United States now appears to be spearheading the misery.

This revelation comes as a result of what can only be described as absolutely atrocious auto sales numbers for December, which were reported in scattered fashion, hitting the terminal in the appropriate red color, on Friday throughout the day. 

Fiat Chrysler sales for Q4 fell 2% despite “robust” demand for the company’s Ram pickup trucks. GM deliveries fell 6% in the quarter and Toyota saw sales fall 6.1% in December, handily missing estimates for a 0.8% gain. 

And Toyota wasn’t the only automaker that missed estimates in grand fashion: Honda was also expected to report a modest gain in sales, but posted an ugly 12% drop in sales for the quarter.

Expectations were lower for Nissan, who was expected to post a drop of 22.1% but missed even those pessimistic expectations by posting a monster 29.5% loss for the quarter. 

Ford is expected to post results on Monday. 

IBD offered some additional detail on the numbers behind the numbers: 

• GM deliveries declined 6.3% to 735,909 units in Q4, with fleet sales accounting for 19.7% of the total. For all of 2019, GM deliveries fell 2.3% to 2,887,046 units. North American wholesale sales fell roughly 25% year over year in the quarter. GM cited the 40-day autoworkers’ strike over labor contracts that brought factories to a halt. GM’s newly launched heavy-duty full-size pickups saw sales fall 17% in Q4.

• Fiat Chrysler reported record Q4 sales for the Ram truck brand, Jeep Wrangler SUV and Dodge Charger passenger car. The Ram brand also posted record full-year sales, amid the launch of the redesigned Ram Heavy Duty pickup truck.

• For all of 2019, Honda’s sales rose 0.2% to 1,608,170 vehicles. Honda saw declines of 11.3% in December for cars; 2.3% for trucks; 12.9% for the Honda division; and 3.8% for the luxury Acura division. Sales of electric and hybrid vehicles fell 31.4% for December but rose 17.2% for the full year.

• Nissan auto sales crumbled 29.5% to 104,781 vehicles in December. For all of 2019, Nissan’s sales declined 9.9% to 1,345,681 vehicles. In December, Nissan saw sales plunge 23.4% for cars; 32.9% for trucks; 28.4% in the Nissan division; and 37.8% in the luxury Infiniti division.

Look at the year-long 2019 numbers paints an ugly picture, as well.

GM’s sales fell 2.3% in 2019, dented by the UAW strike that brought more than 30 U.S. factories to a halt toward the end of the year, according to the Wall Street Journal. Fiat’s sales in the U.S. were down 1% for the year and Toyota’s sales fell 2%. Nissan’s sales fell a whopping 10%. 

Additionally, year end U.S. sales are expected by analysts to come in at a decrease of 1% to 2% for the year, totaling about 17 million sales. Industry forecasters are expecting a steeper drop, to a range of 16.5 million to 16.8 million vehicles. 

Jonathan Smoke, chief economist of Cox Automotive, says that record amount of non-housing debt, slowing retail spending and rising severe delinquencies and defaults are continuing concerns for the industry, according to CNBC. He stated: 

“Retail spending growth began to slow as we entered the fourth quarter. Collectively these trends suggest that the consumer may not be capable of single-handedly carrying the economy in 2020, which is why we are expecting another decline in new-vehicle sales.”

Authored by Scott Cosenza via LibertyNation.com,

Like the 2011 Virginia earthquake, gun control proposals rumble through the Commonwealth once again. The latest is Governor Ralph Northam’s (D) budget proposal, which includes – among other things – what sure seems to be funding for a gun confiscation squad.

Democrats showed their intent to turn Virginia from a state that broadly respects the rights of its residents to bear arms to one that seizes and destroys those guns right after the November elections.  Over 100 cities and counties have declared “sanctuary” pledges to uphold the Second Amendment rights of the people, but the state hasn’t backed down. This led to an opinion from the Democrat Virginia Attorney General proclaiming the sanctuary movement a big legal nothing.  And now we have this very anti-gun budget proposal.

Guns Or Butter

Wars are fantastically expensive, especially those fought between two factions in the same nation.  We essentially take 100% of the losses and pay for 100% of the cost, as was the case in our Civil War. Putting aside the notion of extreme violent opposition to the confiscation laws proposed by Governor Northam and the Democratic Caucus, even if resistance is more measured, taking so many guns from so many people will not be easy.   According to an email blast raising the alarm in opposition, the Virginia Citizens Defense League* (VCDL), the state’s leading civil rights champion for gun rights, said:

• The Governor has requested $4 million and 18 law-enforcement positions to enforce his gun ban – a request that could be the preparatory steps for confiscating the guns which would be banned by SB 16.

• Moreover, the Governor is requesting another $3.5 million to enforce gun control that has NOT been passed by the legislature and is NOT even current law in Virginia: universal background checks, one gun a month limitations, so-called “red flag” gun confiscation orders, and more.

The group has encouraged its members to voice their opposition in regional meetings scheduled by various county delegations to the Assembly.  If the turnout is anything like we’ve seen with the sanctuary movement, it will be impressive.

Elections Have Consequences

The precursor to the seismic waves now bouncing around Virginia was the November election.  Virginians elected a new legislature for 2020 and gave Democrats a majority for the first time since 1994.  With that, the Dems have decided to swing for the fences on their first up at bat in over 20 years, promoting controversial legislation on gun control, zoning, and gender equality.  It’s the gun control bills that have produced the biggest response – an avalanche of opposition by Virginia gun owners.  Senate Bill 16, which was filed 11 days after the election, bans many common firearms, including the AR-15, and does not grandfather them in.  A more aggressive mission to destroy the guns – and the right to own them – of Virginians could hardly be devised.  If the legislation were to pass, gun owners in Virginia would have to sell or surrender their firearms or become felons.  Hence the backlash.

The first sanctuary county in Virginia was not established after the November elections, but before.  These confiscation bills were introduced in previous sessions, but they had no chance to pass.  This didn’t matter to the Carroll County Board of Supervisors, who started the trend with a resolution announcing they wished:

[T]o express its intent to stand as a Sanctuary County for Second Amendment rights and to oppose, within the limits of the Constitutions of the United States and the Commonwealth of Virginia, any efforts to unconstitutionally restrict such rights, and to use such legal means at its disposal to protect the right of the citizens to keep and bear arms, including through legal action, the power of appropriation of public funds, and the right to petition for the redress of grievances.

Since that measure passed in January of 2019, over 100 independent counties and cities have voted in their own sanctuary protections.  Democrats in Richmond may very well be successful in banning guns in Virginia, but the movement between election day and now gives the lie to the notion that they can do so while claiming the will of the people.

Today on Wall Street’s version of the Jerry Springer Show, the saga of a former Sequoia Capital partner and an exotic dancer has finally come to an end, to some degree exonerating Michael Goguen after nearly a half decade of false claims and drummed up #MeToo-style publicity that cost him his career.

A Superior Court Judge in California ruled in favor of Michael Goguen and found that his former mistress, Amber Laurel Baptiste had committed fraud and extortion by threatening to publicize false claims about Goguen, including that he gave her an STD, according to Bloomberg. The judge ordered Baptiste to pay back $10.25 million she had gotten from Goguen after a three day trial that she didn’t attend.

The court also granted Goguen a restraining order.

Baptiste has until next week to file an objection to the ruling or it becomes final and ends the saga that ruined Goguen’s 20 year career at one of the world’s most prestigious venture capital firms. Baptiste’s allegations surfaced right around the same time as the #MeToo movement, which brought heightened scrutiny unto Goguen. 

Baptiste says she stands by her claims and expects to file an objection to the ruling. She said she has already spent $5 million of the money Goguen gave her on legal fees and is in the process of hiring her sixth attorney. “I will continue to fight this all the way to the end,” she commented.

Goguen says the ruling ends a “heartbreaking and devastating” chapter in his life and says many of his friends have treated him “like a leper” since the allegations became public in 2016. 

“I’ve become jaded,” he said, noting that he couldn’t even celebrate the ruling as a victory due to the toll the legal process had taken on his life. 

Goguen had previously worked on finding and funding technology startups that specialized in networking and cybersecurity for Sequoia. Goguen struck it rich with sales of some of these companies to names like Cisco Systems. But Baptiste’s suit in 2016 had immediate implications: Goguen was taken off the company website and was removed from the boards of 11 companies. 

And despite Sequoia noting that they were “unproven and unrelated” allegations at the time, they said they had “decided his departure was appropriate,” according to the firm. 

Goguen met Baptiste in a strip club in Dallas in 2002 where she was working. They then began spending time together and, in 2014, Goguen paid Baptiste $10 million to sever communication and keep the details of their affair under wraps. Baptiste claimed in 2016 that Goguen sexually abused her for more than a decade, infected her with an STD, and then reneged on a promise to pay her $40 million. 

Goguen countersued, claiming the affair was consensual and that Baptiste was extorting him. Goguen said he stopped paying because she broke her end of the deal by continuing to contact him. Baptiste soon left her attorney and claimed that Goguen’s lawyers were working with a PI to spy on her. 

Last year, Goguen beat Baptiste in court before it went to trial when a judge ruled that Baptiste failed to provide evidence of her claims and/or undergo examinations required by the court. In deciding Goguen’s countersuit in December, another judge ruled that Baptiste had forged the date and results of medical tests to try and prove her case. He found that Goguen had agreed to pay her to simply keep her false allegations out of the media spotlight. 

The same judge also found that Baptiste solicited donations from Goguen for a non-profit she established, called Every Girl Counts. The organization was supposed to help feed, clothe and shelter 36 girls, but Baptiste could not prove these services and, instead, spent more than $40,000 of the non-profit’s funds to “to commission fantasy paintings of herself, according to the ruling.”

As for Goguen, who clearly got the short end of the stick in the deal having lost his career due to false allegations, what is his consolation prize? 

Firms still won’t work with him. 

Goguen said the conclusion had the opposite effect of what he expected. Silicon Valley Bank and an angel investing group refused to work with him because, even though the allegations weren’t true, they didn’t want to invite negative news coverage, Goguen said.

Goguen hopes the new ruling puts the matter to rest. He said if Baptiste pays back the money, he’ll donate it to charity. Goguen is now focused on his Montana-based VC firm, Two Bear Capital. He said he contributed $15 million to the initial fund, which has backed seven startups. He has no plans to return to Sequoia or Silicon Valley.

At the risk of sounding too simplistic and old fashioned, the moral of the story today seems to simply be: If you’re rich, steer clear of starting long-term relationships with strippers.

Oh, and if you’re a stripper that’s extorted $10 million from a customer, maybe it’s time to retire and walk away with your chips instead of pressing your luck. 

Authored by Bruce Levine via Counterpunch.org,

Getting rid of Trump means taking seriously “shit-life syndrome” – and its resulting misery, which includes suicide, drug overdose death, and trauma for surviving communities.

My state of Ohio is home to many shit-life syndrome sufferers. In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton lost Ohio’s 18 electoral votes to Trump. She got clobbered by over 400,000 votes (more than 8%). She lost 80 of Ohio’s 88 counties. Trump won rural poorer counties, several by whopping margins. Trump got the shit-life syndrome vote.

Will Hutton in his 2018 Guardian piece, “The Bad News is We’re Dying Early in Britain – and It’s All Down to ‘Shit-Life Syndrome’” describes shit-life syndrome in both Britain and the United States: “Poor working-age Americans of all races are locked in a cycle of poverty and neglect, amid wider affluence. They are ill educated and ill trained. The jobs available are drudge work paying the minimum wage, with minimal or no job security.”

The Brookings Institution, in November 2019, reported:

“53 million Americans between the ages of 18 to 64—accounting for 44% of all workers—qualify as ‘low-wage.’ Their median hourly wages are $10.22, and median annual earnings are about $18,000.”

For most of these low-wage workers, Hutton notes:

“Finding meaning in life is close to impossible; the struggle to survive commands all intellectual and emotional resources. Yet turn on the TV or visit a middle-class shopping mall and a very different and unattainable world presents itself. Knowing that you are valueless, you resort to drugs, antidepressants and booze. You eat junk food and watch your ill-treated body balloon. It is not just poverty, but growing relative poverty in an era of rising inequality, with all its psychological side-effects, that is the killer.”

Shit-life syndrome is not another fictitious illness conjured up by the psychiatric-pharmaceutical industrial complex to sell psychotropic drugs. It is a reality created by corporatist rulers and their lackey politicians – pretending to care about their minimum-wage-slave constituents, who are trying to survive on 99¢ boxed macaroni and cheese prepared in carcinogenic water, courtesy of DuPont or some other such low-life leviathan.

The Cincinnati Enquirer, in November 2019, ran the story: “Suicide Rate Up 45% in Ohio in Last 11 Years, With a Sharper Spike among the Young.” In Ohio between 2007 and 2018, the rate of suicide among people 10 to 24 has risen by 56%. The Ohio Department of Health reported that suicide is the leading cause of death among Ohioans ages 10‐14 and the second leading cause of death among Ohioans ages 15‐34, with the suicide rate higher in poorer, rural counties.

Overall in the United States, “Suicides have increased most sharply in rural communities, where loss of farming and manufacturing jobs has led to economic declines over the past quarter century,” reports the American Psychological Association. The U.S. suicide rate has risen 33% from 1999 through 2017 (from 10.5 to 14 suicides per 100,000 people).

In addition to an increasing rate of suicide, drug overdose deaths rose in the United States from 16,849 in 1999 to 70,237 in 2017, more sharply increasing in recent years. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently reported that opioids—mainly synthetic opioids—were involved in 47,600 overdose deaths in 2017 (67.8% of all drug overdose deaths).

Among all states in 2017, Ohio had the second highest rate of drug overdose death (46.3 per 100,000). West Virginia had the highest rate (57.8 per 100,000).

“In 2016, Donald Trump captured 68 percent of the vote in West Virginia, a state hit hard by opioid overdoses,” begins the 2018 NPR story: “Analysis Finds Geographic Overlap In Opioid Use And Trump Support In 2016.”

The NPR story was about a study published in JAMA Network Open titled “Association of Chronic Opioid Use With Presidential Voting Patterns in US Counties in 2016,” lead authored by physician James Goodwin. In counties with high rates of opioid use, Trump received 60% of the vote; but Trump received only 39% of the vote in counties with low opioid use. Opioid use is prevalent in poor rural counties, as Goodwin reports in his study: “Approximately two-thirds of the association between opioid rates and presidential voting was explained by socioeconomic variables.”

Goodwin told NPR:

“It very well may be that if you’re in a county that is dissolving because of opioids, you’re looking around and you’re seeing ruin. That can lead to a sense of despair . . . . You want something different. You want radical change.”

Shit-life syndrome sufferers are looking for immediate change, and are receptive to unconventional politicians.

In 2016, Trump understood that being unconventional, including unconventional obnoxiousness, can help ratings. So he began his campaign with unconventional serial humiliations of his fellow Republican candidates to get the nomination; and since then, his unconventionality has been limited only by his lack of creativity—relying mostly on the Roy Cohn modeled “Punch them harder than they punch you” for anyone who disagrees with him.

I talked to Trump voters in 2016, and many of them felt that Trump was not a nice person, even a jerk, but their fantasy was that he was one of those rich guys with a big ego who needed to be a hero. Progressives who merely mock this way of thinking rather than create a strategy to deal with it are going to get four more years of Trump.

The Dems’ problem in getting the shit-life syndrome vote in 2020 is that none of their potential nominees for president are unconventional. In 2016, Bernie Sanders achieved some degree of unconventionality. His young Sandernistas loved the idea of a curmudgeon grandfather/eccentric uncle who boldly proclaimed in Brooklynese that he was a “socialist,” and his fans marveled that he was no loser, having in fact charmed Vermonters into electing him to the U.S. Senate. Moreover, during the 2016 primaries, there were folks here in Ohio who ultimately voted for Trump but who told me that they liked Bernie—both Sanders and Trump appeared unconventional to them.

While Bernie still has fans in 2020, he has done major damage to his “unconventionality brand.” By backing Hillary Clinton in 2016, he resembled every other cowardly politician. I felt sorry for his Sandernistas, heartbroken after their hero Bernie—who for most of his political life had self-identified as an “independent” and a “socialist”—became a compliant team player for the corporatist Blue Team that he had spent a career claiming independence from. If Bernie was terrified in 2016 of risking Ralph Nader’s fate of ostracism for defying the corporatist Blue Team, would he really risk assassination for defying the rich bastards who own the United States?

So in 2020, this leaves realistic Dems with one strategy. While the Dems cannot provide a candidate who can viscerally connect with shit-life syndrome sufferers, the Dems can show these victims that they have been used and betrayed by Trump.

Here in Ohio in counties dominated by shit-life syndrome, the Dems would be wise not to focus on their candidate but instead pour money into negative advertising, shaming Trump for making promises that he knew he wouldn’t deliver on: Hillary has not been prosecuted; Mexico has paid for no wall; great manufacturing jobs are not going to Ohioans; and most importantly, in their communities, there are now even more suicides, drug overdose deaths, and grieving families.

You would think a Hollywood Dem could viscerally communicate in 30 seconds: “You fantasized that this braggart would be your hero, but you discovered he’s just another rich asshole politician out for himself.” This strategy will not necessarily get Dems the shit-life syndrome vote, but will increase the likelihood that these folks stay home on Election Day and not vote for Trump.

The question is just how clueless are the Dems? Will they convince themselves that shit-life syndrome sufferers give a shit about Trump’s impeachment? Will they convince themselves that Biden, Buttigieg, Bloomberg or Warren are so wonderful that shit-life syndrome sufferers will take them and their campaign promises seriously? Then Trump probably wins again, thanks to both shit-life syndrome and shit-Dems syndrome.

Multiple similar accounts have now come out over the inside the Situation Room decision-making process concerning the risky move to take out the IRGC’s Gen. Qasem Soleimani, as well as how the drone attack operation played out at the airport. 

By all accounts, as Soleimani traveled to and through Baghdad airport US intelligence seized upon the “target of opportunity” and moved fast to brief President Trump, who was at Mar-a-Lago. Defense sources explained to Bloomberg that Soleimani wasn’t being monitored before it was known he was coming through Baghdad’s international airport. 

Defense and intelligence officials believed the Revolutionary Guard Quds force leader was plotting attacks on Americans inside Iraq and the region — this based on an “intelligence assessment” — the contents of which haven’t been made public.

From the moment Trump was briefed on the matter it was only known to a tightly restricted group of aides within the cabinet, as even White House communications officials “were excluded from the planning,” notes Bloomberg. And further Bloomberg’s sources reveal that:

The White House opted against notifying Congress ahead of the attack out of concern for security, a person familiar with the matter said. The Department of Homeland Security, which is partially responsible for deterring potential Iranian retaliation on U.S. soil, was only notified of the Soleimani strike after the fact. 

However, select “friendly” Congressional leaders were let in on the discussions, most notably South Carolina Republican and outspoken Iran hawk Sen. Lindsey Graham. 

Bloomberg continues:

Inside ornate Mar-a-Lago suites commandeered as makeshift situation rooms, Trump hosted top advisers and certain friendly members of Congress on Tuesday to discuss a strike taking out the commander of Iran’s security and intelligence services.

In between rounds of golf and dinners with his family over the next 48 hours, he was updated on specific intelligence showing multiple threats to Americans from Iran in the region — and on the expected movement of Qasem Soleimani to Baghdad, where he was taken out by an American drone on Thursday.

Top advisers and military brass also sought to offer Trump a view of what the kill might mean for the region, for the United States and for his presidency.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Defense Secretary Mark Esper and Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, had been urgently flown in from Washington to advise the president based on the new intelligence. 

The ensuing debate over whether to act centered on the endless unforeseen consequences and “escalation risk” that assassinating Iran’s most influential military leader and close friend to the Ayatollah and Iranian president might entail. 

“The morning after the strike, Trump abandoned plans to play a round of golf and instead spent time surveying his orbit of advisers on the kill order. He was defiant, according to some of the people he spoke with, and defensive,” Bloomberg reports. “But he also appeared to be freshly aware of the gravity of his role and the power he wields, unsure of how Iran would respond.”

During the whole affair, others who had attended holiday and New Year’s events with the president described him as “calm, cool and collected.” According to Politico, conservative radio host Howie Carr, who’d been among the first to speak to Trump at Mar-a-Lago moments after the news first broke, said “I had no idea there was anything out of the ordinary going on until I got home.”

Concerning initial questions of how Soleimani could have been traveling so visibly and “out in the open” through Baghdad’s large international hub, one Republican foreign policy analyst had this to say: “We’ve known every minute of every day where Soleimani is for years—there’s no moment of any given day where five or six intelligence agencies can’t tell you where he is,” according to Politico. “It’s been one of his talking points: The Americans can find me any time, they just don’t dare hit me.”

This despite Israeli officials and media for the past two years touting that Tel Aviv has given a ‘green light’ for his assassination should the opportunity present itself. 

As Politico aptly summarizes: “That calculation proved misguided in the wee hours of January 3 in Iraq, where Soleimani landed amid spiraling tensions between U.S.- and Iranian-allied factions.”

A senior defense official concluded, “He arrived at the airport and we had a target of opportunity, and based on the president’s direction, we took it.”

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

Are you ready for this week’s absurdity? Here’s our weekend roll-up of the most ridiculous stories from around the world that are threats to your liberty, your finances, and your prosperity.

Professor Blames Private Property for California Wildfires

A public takeover of utility companies is not enough, according to Kian Goh, Professor of Urban Development at UCLA.

In order to combat California wildfires, we need to abandon “aspirations of home ownership, and belief in the importance of private property.”

Fueled by cheap energy– and of course the ever-present racism of the white middle-class– people expanded beyond cities, building little tinder-box neighborhoods into the forests.

Goh says that, “Expansionist, individualist, and exclusionary patterns of housing became synonymous with freedom and self-sufficiency.”

Ah yes, it’s not so hard to link the desire for freedom and self-sufficiency with every known evil on earth. You’re even responsible for burning down California.

But Urban Planners like Kian Goh would be happy to step in, and tell us how our lives should be designed.

For the greater good, we must collectivize and live on communal (i.e. government controlled) land.

Just a reminder– parents across the country pay top dollar each year so people like Professor Goh can teach their children.

Click here to read the original article.

*  *  *

Update: New York Man finally has his hemp back

In Early November, Oren Levy had his shipment of legal hemp confiscated by the New York Police. They even bragged about the “drug bust” on social media.

Too bad it was perfectly legal. Levy even had the documentation to prove it, included in every box of the shipment.

But police still lured Levy’s brother to the department under the guise that he could pick up the shipment, and arrested him.

After almost two months, and nearly destroying Levy’s perfectly legal CBD oil business, charges were dropped. The shipment was returned– though in a dry and deteriorated condition.

Levy is now suing the NYPD, the City of New York, and possibly FedEx for alerting the authorities in the first place.

Levy broke the good news in a Tweet and Instagram post.

*  *  *

Congress has a New Year’s Resolution: Destroy Facebook’s Libra Token

Two bills that the US Congress will consider this year seem aimed specifically at preventing Facebook from rolling out it’s digital token Libra.

One is called the “Keep Big Tech Out Of Finance Act.” It would ban “large platform utilities” from being, or being affiliated with, a financial institution.

It would also not allow large platforms to create or “operate a digital asset that is intended to be widely used as medium of exchange, unit of account, store of value, or any other similar function.”

Violators would be fined $1 million per day.

The other bill is called the “Managed Stable Coins are Securities Act.”

Libra is intended to be a “stable coin” which is a digital currency tied to the value of existing currencies.

This bill would make it law that Libra would be considered a security, like a stock or bond, as opposed to a currency, like the dollar or Swiss franc.

Sounds like the US government doesn’t want any competition with their Federal Reserve Notes.

Click here and here to see the bills.

*  *  *

Gig workers’ big win in California? Being fired.

In September 2019, the media company Vox ran the headline, Gig workers’ win in California is a victory for workers everywhere.

They were referring to a new law in California which classified gig workers and contractors as employees.

The story was that by classifying workers as contractors instead of employees, companies like Uber and Lyft got away with not providing employee benefits required under California law.

Then, just before Christmas, Vox showed us what the law really meant when it fired 200 California-based freelance writers.

Vox helped sell the public the lie that laws like these force companies to absorb freelancers as employees. But in reality, it means they get fired.

Click here to read the full story.

Top Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani was plotting to attack American military, diplomatic and financial targets in Syria and Lebanon, and comprised the imminent threat used to justify Soleimani’s killing, according to NBC News, citing multiple US officials.

“When we start seeing extensive and very solid intelligence that [Soleimani] is plotting imminent attacks against the United States, the president as commander in chief has a duty to take decisive action,” said a senior State Department official, adding “If we had not taken this action, and hundreds of Americans were dead, you would be asking me why didn’t you take out Soleimani when you have the chance.”

Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, said he is confident Soleimani was actively planning attacks against the U.S. in the Middle East and those attacks were imminent.

“We had clear, compelling, unambiguous intelligence to indicate Qassem Soleimani was planning, coordinating, and directing a significant campaign of violence against the United States in the coming days,” said Gen. Milley. –NBC News

Soleimani’s targets are said to include US military outposts in eastern Syria, and diplomatic and financial targets in Lebanon. According to Gen. Milley, the US is confident that the “size, scale and scope” of the planned attacks constituted an imminent threat.

“By the way, it still might happen,” he added.

Should Lebanon come under attack, the 173rd Airborne Brigade Combat team is on alert and prepared to deploy, should they come under attack. The deployment would consist of somewhere between 130 and 750 total troops.

A senior U.S. official said Soleimani had traveled to Syria, Lebanon and then to Iraq Thursday, and U.S. intelligence officials believe he was approving final plans for attacks in each location.

Milley said Soleimani had been directing attacks against the U.S. inside Iraq, including a Dec. 27 attack near Kirtkuk that killed an American contractor and wounded four U.S. service members.

“He approved it,” said Milley. “I know that. One hundred percent.” –NBC News

According to a senior Congressional aide briefed on the intelligence, however, lawmakers saw nothing linking Soleimani to an imminent attack – rather, what they saw was “exactly the sort of planning and coordination he has been doing for years,” according to NBC. The aide added that while nobody doubts Soleimani was a threat to the United States, the case for acting on an imminent threat was not made.

Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA), ranking member of the Senate Intelligence Committe, said “I have real questions and want to get a full briefing from the intelligence community about the decision on this time and place.”