Category: zerohedge

Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

There certainly hasn’t been a lack of seismic activity so far in 2020.  Just a few days ago, I wrote about the horrific earthquake swarm that Puerto Rico is currently experiencing.  More than 1,000 earthquakes have rattled Puerto Rico so far, and as you will see below, it was just hit by another very large earthquake.  But right now volcanic eruptions have taken center stage.  In particular, a massive eruption in the Philippines is making headlines all over the world, but what most people don’t realize is that several other volcanoes have also blown their tops in spectacular fashion within the past week.  Suddenly, volcanoes all over the globe are shooting giant clouds of ash miles into the air, and this is greatly puzzling many of the experts.

Let’s review what we have witnessed over the past 7 days.

Last Tuesday, one of the most important volcanoes in Alaska shot hot ash 25,000 feet into the air…

Shishaldin Volcano erupted at 5 a.m. Tuesday, the Alaska Volcano Observatory announced, and sent up an initial ash cloud to 19,000 feet. Clouds initially obscured the mountain, but satellite imagery confirmed the ash cloud, U.S. Geological Survey geophysicist Hans Schwaiger said.

Seismicity diminished for a few hours, but it then increased again. During the increase, the volcano spewed an ash cloud to 25,000 feet, the observatory announced. The later eruption increased the volume of ash.

There are 5280 feet in a mile, and so we are talking about an ash cloud nearly 5 miles high.

Then on Thursday, Mt. Popocatepetl in Mexico shot hot ash nearly 4 miles into the sky…

Mexico’s Popocatépetl volcano burst to life on Thursday in a spectacular gush of lava and clouds of ash that hurled incandescent rock about 20,000 feet into the sky.

The dramatic explosion of the active stratovolcano, a little over 40 miles southeast of Mexico City, was captured on video by Mexico’s National Center for Disaster Prevention, CENAPRED.

Those that follow my work on a regular basis already know that I am deeply concerned about Mt. Popocatepetl.  It has the potential to create the worst natural disaster in the modern history of North America, because it is quite close to Mexico City.  The following summary of the potential threat that Mt. Popocatepetl poses comes from one of my previous articles…

Approximately 26 million people live within 60 miles of Popocatepetl’s crater, and so we are talking about the potential for death and destruction on a scale that is difficult to imagine. In ancient times, Mt. Popocatepetl buried entire Aztec cities in super-heated mud, but then it went to sleep for about 1,000 years. Unfortunately for us, it started waking up again in the 1990s, and now this is the most active that we have seen it ever since the volcano originally reawakened.

Let us hope that Mt. Popocatepetl settles down, because the death and destruction that a catastrophic eruption would cause would be off the charts.

Meanwhile, down in South America the Sabancaya volcano in Peru just shot a plume of volcanic ash approximately 24,000 feet into the air…

Explosive activity continues. Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) Buenos Aires warned about a volcanic ash plume that rose up to estimated 24000 ft (7300 m) altitude or flight level 240 and is moving at 15 kts in S direction.

But hardly anyone is paying any attention to what just took place in Peru because of what just happened in the Philippines.

On Sunday, Taal volcano roared to life, and it is being reported that the eruption sent “steam, ash and pebbles up to 10 to 15 kilometers (6 to 9 miles) into the sky”.

Can you imagine that?

According to USA Today, ash has already reached Manila, and “red-hot lava” has started gushing out of the volcano…

Red-hot lava gushed from of a Philippine volcano on Monday after a sudden eruption of ash and steam that forced villagers to flee and shut down Manila’s international airport, offices and schools.

There were no immediate reports of casualties or major damage from Taal volcano’s eruption south of the capital that began Sunday. But clouds of ash blew more than 100 kilometers (62 miles) north, reaching the bustling capital, Manila, and forcing the shutdown of the country’s main airport with more than 240 international and domestic flights cancelled so far.

Unfortunately, authorities are warning that the worst may still be yet to come.

In fact, they are telling us that a “hazardous explosive eruption” could literally happen at any moment…

“The earthquakes were strong, and it felt like there was a monster coming out” as in the movies, Cookie Siscar, who had left the area and was relaying a report from her husband, Emer, a poultry farmer, told the Times.

The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology increased its threat level for Taal Volcano to four out of five, saying that a “hazardous explosive eruption” could happen at any minute

Meanwhile, we continue to see unusual earthquake activity all over the globe.

After already experiencing more than 1,000 earthquakes since the beginning of 2020, Puerto Rico was hit by a magnitude 5.9 quake on Saturday…

A magnitude 5.9 quake shook Puerto Rico on Saturday, causing further damage along the island’s southern coast, where previous recent quakes have toppled homes and schools.

The U.S. Geological Survey said the 8:54 a.m. (1254 GMT) quake hit 8 miles (13 kilometers) southeast of Guanica at a shallow depth of 3 miles (5 kilometers).

For quite a while, I have been warning that our planet is becoming increasingly unstable and that the shaking is only going to get worse.

I know that a lot of people didn’t believe me at first, and that is okay.

After the events of the last few days, perhaps a few more people will start to understand what is going on.

There have always been earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, but for most of our lives we have been able to assume that our planet is generally stable.

Unfortunately, that is no longer a safe assumption.

We have entered a period of time when all of the old assumptions will no longer apply, and everything that can be shaken will be shaken.

Young NFL players (and leveraged-to-the-gills stock market longs) “need to start taking care of their chicken…”

Marshawn Lynch dropping jewels for NFL players in what could be his final presser as a player pic.twitter.com/N8qOl6vcyC

— Donté Stallworth (@DonteStallworth) January 13, 2020

Chinese markets surged overnight with small-cap, tech dominant…

Source: Bloomberg

Europe was mostly lower with UK’s FTSE bucking the trend with a gain…

Source: Bloomberg

In the US markets, The Dow underperformed (weighed down by UNH) as Nasdaq soared… (S&P and Nasdaq new record highs)

 

Dow futures spiked instantly on the “China removed as currency manipulator” headlines, then fell back, then the machines lifted the market back to run those stops, and then the market fell back… again…

The tech sector is now trading at its most expensive to the broad market since the highs in 2007…

Source: Bloomberg

And then there’s TSLA, which exploded higher today, “coincidentally” correlated with AAPL and the expansion of global liquidity…

Source: Bloomberg

And then there’s this masterpiece of analysis from Morgan Stanley: “Our ‘analysis’ of Fed balance sheet expansions suggests it does boost asset prices.”

Will TSLA hit $1000 before this is over?

Source: Bloomberg

Seriously… this is just a joke!

Source: Bloomberg

It’s not just TSLA, BYND soared over 30% today and up over 55% in the last 3 days as another massive squeeze has been engineered…

Source: Bloomberg

The decoupling between AAPL stock price and its implied vol is shocking…

Source: Bloomberg

The divergence is being driven by soaring demand for calls (levered longs), not puts (hedges)…

Source: Bloomberg

Shorts were squeezed (once again) with “Most Shorted” stocks soaring back last Wednesday highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Defensive stocks dominated cyclicals for the 2nd day in a row…

Source: Bloomberg

Stock prices relative to bond prices are back at their historical highs seen just before the collapse in Q4 2018…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields limped higher today by 1-2bps across the curve…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar was a smidge weaker on the day, but basically trod water…

Source: Bloomberg

Amid the “currency manipulator” headlines, Yuan has rallied back to pre-Muchin label levels…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos are very marginally higher since Friday…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin went nowhere, clinging to $8100…

Source: Bloomberg

Copper rallied strongly as crude crapped out today with PMs drifting lower…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold slipped lower today, with futures back at $1550 – pre-Soleimani levels…

And WTI tumbled to a $57 handle intraday…

 

And finally, tomorrow we see the start of the financial earnings reporting cycle. We thought these charts might provide some sense of the farce that this so-called ‘market’ has become…

Source: Bloomberg

Notice a pattern in these charts? Fun-durr-mentals don’t matter!!

Extended forecasts are suggesting the arrival of much colder weather across the U.S. starting later this week into February, and this could elevate potential risks for winter storms in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

Global Forecast System (GFS) data shows Old Man Winter will return to the Northeast on Friday with average temperatures from Washington, D.C., to Boston around 25 to 34 degrees. The cold will persist through the end of the month. 

By Friday, the Midwest, Central, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast will see a rush of Arctic air that will push the 32-degree line down towards the Southeast.

The 32-degree line could dive as low as North Florida on January 21-22, which means more than half the country will be experiencing frigid temperatures.

Northeast heating degree days (HDD) show above-trend activity by this weekend, which usually suggests energy demand will start to increase as people will use their furnaces to stay warm.

Southeast HDD will move above trend by the weekend as energy demand increases.

Midwest HDD shows similar activity as cold air will force people to increase energy demand to heat their homes.

Central HDD shows energy demand will increase into the weekend.

Spot natural gas prices have dropped 25% in the last 46 days thanks to warmer weather trends and oversupply issues. Energy traders are looking at the incoming weather data to see just how much cold air will be released from Canada starting Friday.

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

It is a wonder of these incendiary times that even as impeachment of a president moves to its ripest phase, trial in the Senate, the acts of sedition that prompted it still go on behind the scenes with no intervention – an epic failure of authority, if there ever was one. And further irony, if ever there was a trial that cried for witnesses, the impeachment case being brought by Mrs. Pelosi is such a hash of fraud, incompetence, and chicanery, that it begs for summary dismissal — so that these seditious caitiffs will not have to answer to the nation.

I speak of the “whistleblower” scheme cooked up by a network of officials who have actively plotted to overthrow the president for three years, as laid out at The Last Refuge website Sunday night: Intelligence Community Inspector General Michael Atkinson in league with former colleagues from the Department of Justice National Security Division and the Lawfare org — a group dedicated to weaponizing law, in service to the political Left.

As I have averred in this blog as far back as October, Mr. Atkinson’s previous job before being appointed ICIG was counsel (lawyer) to the Department of Justice’s Chief of National Security. During the first half of the election year 2016, that was John Carlin. Mr. Carlin’s job was not just to sign-off on FISA warrants, but to actually write them. It also happens that Mr. Carlin had previously served as chief of staff to Robert Mueller, when Mr. Mueller was FBI Director.

Mr. Carlin signed-off on a March 2016 warrant against Carter Page, under suspicion of being a Russian Spy, when in fact Carter Page was a CIA informant who had been operating in Russia for years to uncover Russian adventures against the USA. CIA Director John Brennan inserted Mr. Page into the Trump campaign to open up Mr. Trump’s campaign to FBI surveillance, since the CIA has no law enforcement powers. The FISA Court’s Two-hop Rule allows a second hop to anyone who communicated with the initial subject of a warrant, which might have achieved surveillance of everyone in the Trump campaign, including the candidate himself. It also would have allowed access to all communications going back for years. This part of the scheme was probably green-lighted by White House National Security Advisor Susan Rice for Mr. Brennan, with President Obama’s approval, for the purpose of helping Hillary Clinton win the election.

John Carlin resigned in September of 2016 when faced with the prospect of having to sign a second fraudulent FISA warrant. He was replaced by DOJ attorney Mary McCord. Among other things, Ms. McCord was involved in engineering the case against General Michael Flynn, as well as the continuing surveillance of the Trump campaign. She resigned in April of 2017. A month later, Robert Mueller was appointed Special Counsel by Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein (acting for recused AG Jeff Sessions). Mary McCord then moved to a job at the elephant’s graveyard of federal officials under suspicion of malfeasance: the Georgetown University Law School. Meanwhile Michael Atkinson, who had continued as counsel under Ms. McCord, was shifted to his new job as ICIG.

Since then, somehow, Mary McCord landed a gig as an outside lawyer for Adam Schiff’s House intelligence Committee, to which she remains attached to this day. She is also associated with the Lawfare org that has supplied several other lawyers to Mr. Schiff’s committee and Jerrold Nadler’s House Judiciary Committee. Did Ms. McCord organize the “whistleblower” complaint and coordinate its transmission through Mr. Atkinson’s IG office, with CIA agent Eric Ciaramella acting as the spearpoint for the operation? Did Mr. Ciaramella have direct contact with Ms. McCord in the process? Did Ms. McCord have any part in actually writing the “whistleblower’s” highly legalistic complaint? Did Ms. McCord play any part in the backdating of official forms submitted for the “whistleblower’s” complaint — especially the crucial matter of changing the provision that disallowed second-hand “hearsay” evidence from such a complaint? Isn’t it a pity that the Senate phase of this impeachment may conclude with no testimony from these people?

An additional insult to the public interest went down on Friday when FISA court presiding judge James Boasberg picked one David Kris, former DOJ National Security Division chief (preceding John Carlin under President Obama), to “assist” in reforming FISA court procedures lately discredited by multiple acts of fraud and seditious abuse. Mr. Kris’s conflicts of interest in this endeavor are so rich and dark that they would embarrass a Gestapo Gruppenführer. In October, 2019, he tweeted “Trump has to go.” He was a loud critic of the report issued by Rep Devin Nunes, former chair, now ranking minority member, of the House Intel Committee — a report subsequently proven factually correct about the deceit surrounding RussiaGate — and a fervent supporter of Adam’s Schiff’s dishonest and factually erroneous minority report. He is one of the most active contributors to the Lawfare blog.

The appointment of Mr. Kris has provoked vehement objections for these obvious reasons, yet who and where is the authority to adjudicate it? Apparently in Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts, who is the only person with any supervisory role over the FISA court. Maybe someone should ask Justice Roberts how this appointment can possibly stand.

Yesterday, when looking at the composition of the ongoing market meltup, Morgan Stanley flagged just how uneven the leadership distribution has become highlighting the “other 1 percent”, namely the handful of tech names that have been responsible for the bulk of the S&P’s move higher in 2019, and noting “that in a world of low growth, limited pricing power and now rising costs, it’s clear that bigger is better and scale matters.” As a result, “currently, the top five companies in the S&P 500 (the other 1 percenters) make up 18% of the total market cap.“

As Morgan Stanley’s equity strategist, Michael Wilson, writes today “this is the most extreme this metric has ever been, including the tech bubble of the late 1990s. This doesn’t have to correct itself immediately but it is an unsustainable development in our view especially if net income concentration doesn’t keep pace.”  We also know how this “unsustainable development” came to be: as he cautions, “this divergence is the result of the extraordinary liquidity being provided by the world’s central banks, which is flowing to the most liquid and largest names in the S&P 500. This also recalls 1999, when the Fed expanded its balance sheet at the end of the year and early in 2000 as a precaution against Y2K disruption.“

In other words, not only is it “not different this time“, but the entire market is stating to resemble the euphoria last seen just before the dot com bubble. And we all have the Fed to thank for it.

Again.

It gets better: with Michael Wilson clearly getting very angry client emails, especially following his downgrade of the “tech” sector last summer (take one look at the Nasdaq since last July to see why said clients may be mad), the MS strategist decided to take out his frustration at the Fed, pointing out what has been obvious to our readers ever since, oh… 2009, to wit: “we continue to view central bank activity as an important driver of asset prices in the near term given the lackluster improvement in earnings revisions.” Well, about time, Michael, about time. What next: you will admit to reading tinfoil fringe blogs that have blamed the Fed of doing just the for the past 11 years?

So what finally sparked Wilson’s Eureka moment? It appears, the answer is the chart below, which shows that “an unprecedented divergence has opened up between the y/y change in the S&P 500 and earnings revisions breadth.”

But what if it’s just sour grapes, and S&P earnings are indeed set to blast off? After all, as we showed yesterday, the market is already pricing in the biggest economic recovery (or at least ISM surge) since the financial crisis.

Indeed, Wilson gives some credence to this view, noting that “as for earnings, our work is also starting to show some signs of bottoming in the growth rate for the S&P 500 while small/mid caps are still struggling with deteriorating  operating leverage. We will be looking this earnings season for signs of stabilization in margins and areas of pricing power and positive operating leverage. The equity market continues to pay up for quality and is fading cyclicals relative to defensives again as this ratio tests its 200 day moving average.” “In short”, Wilson summarizes, “as equity markets make new highs every week, there is still a defensive undertone that suggests the recovery will be much more modest than 2016-17 and in line with our economists’ forecast.”

Ok, fine: while economic data may have indeed bottomed, does that suggest a meteoric rise in S&P earnings to justify the unprecedented multiple expansion observed in the past year? The answer it appears, is probably not, and Wilson explains why below:

As we head into earnings season,negative revisions have abated which is natural at this time of the quarter. Exhibit 3 shows that revisions during each quarter last year got progressively worse which led to progressively smaller beats (Exhibit 4).

Based on the sharp decline of 4Q EPS estimates during last quarter, we expect a beat of approximately 2 percent when 4Q earnings season is finished. This would leave 4Q flat y/y based on the current -1.8% estimate. Hardly exciting, but that would be a slight uptick from 3Q when y/y EPS came in at -0.8% which supports the view that the earnings recession is behind us, at least for the large caps.”

So yes, some good news: after four quarters of declining earnings as the WSJ noted earlier today, earnings are finally bottoming out. Now if only that justified a 30% S&P surge in 2019. To that point, Wilson still thinks 2020 bottom up consensus EPS forecast for the S&P 500 of +9.5% growth is too high “and these numbers will come down.” The question is how much down, and just how much pain will there be as the “Unprecedented Divergence” shown above finally closes.

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Philadelphia is one of the least safe big cities in the US. How did it get that way?

Social Justice Warriors

Thanks to George Soros, Larry Krasner was elected District Attorney in Philadelphia.

Krasner is Self-Proclaimed Social Justice Warrior.  Consider the case of Michael White, a 22-year-old black college student who admitted killing Sean Schellenger, white. Numerous witnesses and a cellphone video confirmed what happened.

Krasner initially charged White with first-degree murder and denied his request for bail. But under pressure from leaders in Philadelphia’s African-American community, Mr. Krasner downgraded the charge to third-degree murder. Then, days before the trial, Mr. Krasner dropped the murder charge entirely.

White was then acquitted. How’s that for justice?

Please consider Philadelphia’s Top Prosecutor Pursues ‘Social,’ Not Actual, Justice

Mr. Krasner is one of a new crop of “progressive prosecutors” who have won election in liberal cities. They include San Francisco’s Chesa Boudin, who was raised by Weather Underground radicals Bill Ayers and Bernardine Dohrn because his own parents were in prison for participating in the murder of police officers. Mr. Krasner was a virulent critic of law enforcement before running to become the city’s top prosecutor. During a 30-year career as a defense lawyer, Mr. Krasner gained notoriety for filing 75 lawsuits against Philadelphia police. In a 2017 campaign video he said “policing and prosecution are both systematically racist,” and he called poverty and crime consequences of “mass incarceration.”

Mr. Krasner’s candidacy was laughed off until George Soros dumped $1.7 million into the campaign. At his primary election night victory party, Mr. Krasner smiled while his supporters chanted, “No good cops in a racist system!” and “f— the FOP!” (the Fraternal Order of Police)

​Mockery of Justice

Attorney William McSwain has convincingly argued that Mr. Krasner has created a dangerous “culture of disrespect for law enforcement.”

Radical prosecutors like Mr. Krasner make a mockery of justice. There’s nothing progressive about public servants who shirk their duties, and nothing just about allowing violent criminals to roam free.

Violent Crime in Philadelphia​

As you might expect, Violent Crime in Philadelphia is high and on the rise.

Philadelphia consistently ranks above the national average in terms of crime, especially violent offenses. It has the highest violent crime rate of the ten American cities with a population greater than 1 million residents as well as the highest poverty rate among these cities. It has been included in real estate analytics company Neighborhood Scout’s “Top 100 Most Dangerous Cities in America” list every year since it has been compiled. Much of the crime is concentrated in the North, West, and Southwest sections of the city.

Violent Crimes and Murders

The above Wikipedia snip on Philadelphia triggered further inquiries.

Let’s investigate violent crimes and murder rates.

Most Dangerous Cities Population 25,000 and Above

Please consider Neighborhood Scout’s Most Dangerous Cities – 2020

1. Detroit, MI: Chance of being a victim 1 in 5,000

2. Memphis, TN: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 5,100

3. Birmingham, AL: Chance of being a victim 1 in 5,200

4. Baltimore, MD: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 5,400

5. Flint, MI: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 5,500

6. St. Louis, MO: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 5,500

7. Danville, IL: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 5,500

8. Saginaw, MI: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 6,000

9. Wilmington, DE: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 6,100

10. Camden, NJ: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 6,200

11. Pine Bluff, AR: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 6,200

12. Kansas City, MO: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 6,300

13. San Bernardino, CA: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 6,500

14. Alexandria, LA: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 6,800

15. Little Rock, AR: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 6,800

16. Cleveland, OH: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 6,900

17. Milwaukee, WI: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 7,000

18. Stockton, CA: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 7,000

19. Monroe, LA: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 7,100

20. Chester, PA: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 7,100

21. Rockford, IL: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 7,100

22. Myrtle Beach, SC: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 7,200

23. Albuquerque, NM: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 7,300

24. Shawnee, OK: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 7,300

25. Pontiac, MI: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 7,400

26. Kalamazoo, MI: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 7,500

27. Farmington, NM: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 7,600

28. Springfield, MO: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 7,600

29. Anchorage, AK: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 7,600

30. Oakland, CA: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 7,700

31. Indianapolis, IN: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 7,700

32. East Point, GA: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 7,800

33. Compton, CA: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 8,200

34. Battle Creek, MI: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 8,300

35. East St. Louis, IL: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 8,300

36. Canton, OH: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 8,300

37. Elkhart, IN: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 8,400

38. Newburgh, NY: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 8,400

39. Riviera Beach, FL: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 8,400

40. Wichita, KS: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 8,400

41. Jackson, MI: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 8,400

42. New Orleans, LA: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 8,500

43. Trenton, NJ: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 8,500

44. Jacksonville, AR: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 8,500

45. Nashville, TN: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 8,700

46. Lansing, MI: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 9,000

47. Daytona Beach, FL: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 9,000

48. Albany, GA: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 9,100

49. Harrisburg, PA: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 9,300

50. Tulsa, OK: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 9,300

51. Beaumont, TX: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 9,300

52. Hartford, CT: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 9,300

53. Desert Hot Springs, CA: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 9,300

54. Buffalo, NY: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 9,400

55. Scranton, PA: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 9,400

56. Gadsden, AL: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 9,500

57. Chattanooga, TN: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 9,500

58. Muskogee, OK: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 9,500

59. Houston, TX: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 9,600

60. South Bend, IN: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 9,600

61. York, PA: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 9,800

62. Homestead, FL: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 9,800

63. Fall River, MA: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 9,900

64. Chicago, IL: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 9,900

65. Lubbock, TX: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 9,900

66. Jackson, TN: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 10,000

67. Washington, DC: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 10,000

68. Pueblo, CO: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 10,100

69. Springfield, MA: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 10,100

70. Dothan, AL: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 10,200

71. North Las Vegas, NV: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 10,300

72. Florence, SC: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 10,300

73. Lake Worth, FL: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 10,300

74. Holyoke, MA: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 10,300

75. Levenworth, KS: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 10,500

76. Richmond, CA: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 10,500

77. South Salt Lake, UT: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 10,500

78. Miami Beach, FL: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 10,500

79. Schenectady, NY: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 10,500

80. Baton Rouge, LA: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 10,600

81. West Palm Beach, FL: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 10,800

82. Sumter, SC: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 10,800

83. Dayton, OH: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 10,900

84. North Charlston, SC: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 10,900

85. Odessa, TX: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 10,900

86. Philadelphia, PA: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 11,000

87. Lawton, OK: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 11,000

88. Brockton, MA: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 11,300

89. Salisbury, MD: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 11,300

90. Modesto, CA: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 11,300

91. Niagra Falls, NY: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 11,300

92. Kankakee, IL: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 11,300

93. Chicago Heights, IL: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 11,400

94. Oklahoma City, OK: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 11,400

95. Santa Monica, CA: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 11,400

96. Akron, OH: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 11,600

97. Lauderdale Lakes, FL: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 11,600

98. Tacoma, WA: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 11,600

99. Albany, NY: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 11,600

100. Wheeling, WV: Chance of being a victim: 1 in 11,600

States With 5 or More of Top 100 Violent Crime Cities

• California: 8

• Michigan: 8

• Florida: 7

• Illinois: 6

• New York: 5

• Pennsylvania: 5

• Oklahoma: 5

Top 10 Murder Rate Cities

1. East St. Louis, IL: Murder Rate (.87 per 1,000 residents). 17.5X U.S. Average, No. of Murders: 23

2. St. Louis, MO: Murder Rate (.62 per 1,000 residents), 12.3X U.S. Average, No. of Murders: 187

3. Gary, IN: Murder Rate (.53 per 1,000 residents), 10.6X U.S. Average, No. of Murders: 40

4. Chester, PA: Murder Rate (.53 per 1,000 residents), 10.6X U.S. Average, No. of Murders: 18

5. Baltimore, MD: Murder Rate (.51 per 1,000 residents), 10.3X U.S. Average, No. of Murders: 309

6. York, PA: Murder Rate (.45 per 1,000 residents), 9.1X U.S. Average, No. of Murders: 20

7. Petersburg, VA: Murder Rate (.44 per 1,000 residents), 8.9X U.S. Average, No. of Murders: 14

8. Birmingham, AL: Murder Rate (.42 per 1,000 residents), 8.4X U.S. Average, No. of Murders: 88

9. Detroit, MI: Murder Rate (.39 per 1,000 residents) 7.8X U.S. Average, No. of Murders: 263

10. Danville, IL: Murder Rate (.39 per 1,000 residents) 7.8X U.S. Average, No. of Murders: 12

Illinois Shines

Illinois really shines here. It claims the number 1, number 10, and number 20 murder spots, the latter Alton, IL.

The site shows the top 30. I only listed the top 10.

Danville, Illinois

Danville is my home town.

It is number 7 on the list of most crime ridden cities and number 10 on the murder rate list.

How to Reduce Crime Stats

One way to reduce violent crime is to not convict anyone of anything in the name of “social justice”.

This is the method preferred by George Soros and Philadelphia DA Larry Krasner.

As a side note, these crime stats gave me another reason to share my previous post, Escape Illinois: Get The Hell Out Now, We Are

In ATTOM’s latest annual report on the state of the American housing market, the company, which maintains a popular proprietary service for housing-market data, found that owning a median-prices three-bedroom home is more affordable than renting a similar property in just over half of the more than 850 counties examined.

However, there’s a clear split between urban/suburban markets, and their rural counterparts: Typically, home ownership is more affordable than renting in lightly populated markets, while renting is more affordable than owning in major cities and their surrounding suburbs.

The annual report used wage data from the BLS, along with recently released data on fair-market rent data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development. The study also incorporated ATTOM’s proprietary data about publicly-recorded home sales. The ultimate conclusion was that, in 455 of 855 US counties analyzed (roughly 53%), home ownership is more affordable than renting.

The gist is that home ownership is a more financially sensible option than renting in a slim majority of American markets.

“Home ownership is a better deal than renting for the average wage earner in a slim majority of U.S. housing markets. However, there are distinct differences between different places, depending on the size and location from core metro areas,” said Todd Teta, ATTOM’s chief product officer. “For sure, either buying or renting is a financial stretch or out of reach for individual wage earners throughout most of the country in the current climate. But with interest rates falling, owning a home can still be the more affordable option, even as prices keep rising.”

Though this isn’t true for the 136 counties with populations greater than 500,000 people. In 69% of these counties, renting is the more “affordable” option.

That’s hardly a surprise. As we’ve explained many times in the past, millennials, now the generation that represents the greatest share of workers in the American labor force, are fueling an unprecedented boom in the American rental economy.

And this doesn’t apply solely to homes. The “renting revolution” is sprawling to include furniture, clothes and even video game consoles.

In 36 of the 43 counties (about 80%) with a population of at least 1 million or more people, renting is the more affordable option, the author of the report explains. These counties include LA County, Cook County (Chicago), Harris County (Houston), and Maricopa County (Phoenix), as well as San Diego.

In a comparison between home prices and average rents, the study found that the former is rising faster than the latter in 67% – or 575 – of the 855 counties examined by ATTOM’s staff. This ncludes Harris County, San Bernardino, Bexar County (San Antonio), Wayne County (Detroit) and Philadelphia. That figure is slightly better for average rents, which are climbing faster than median home prices in 280 counties (or just 32% of those examined).

Moving on to the subject of wage growth, the study found that home prices in 66% of the markets examined are rising faster than average weekly wages. Meanwhile, average weekly wages rose faster than home prices in about 34% of the counties examined.

The takeaway is clear: Young people who are hoping to own their homes – long seen as a critical component of building long-term wealth – are better off living in more suburban and rural parts of the south and Midwest. Though well-paying jobs are typically scarce in these regions, as more companies migrate to these typically low-tax states, that could soon change, too.

The establishment is in full panic mode over Bernie Sanders, whose rise in the polls has been accompanied by not one, but two Monday morning media hit pieces.

First, as we reported earlier, Democrats have been riled by Sanders’ attacks on Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren – recently saying that President Trump will ‘eat Joe Biden’s lunch’ if he is the nominee.

Second, Sanders took flack after it emerged that campaign volunteers have been telling potential voters that Warren is trying to capture upper-income Democrats and would not attract new voters to the party.

In response, CNN (on the eve of a CNN debate) reports in a thinly-sourced article that Sanders told Warren in a private 2018 meeting that a woman can’t win in 2020 against Donald Trump – based on the accounts of four people “two people Warren spoke with directly soon after the encounter, and two people familiar with the meeting.”

That evening, Sanders expressed frustration at what he saw as a growing focus among Democrats on identity politics, according to one of the people familiar with the conversation. Warren told Sanders she disagreed with his assessment that a woman could not win, three of the four sources said.

Sanders denied the characterization of the meeting in a statement to CNN. –CNN

Lightly sourced and denied by Sanders. The liberal media desperately wants these candidates and their campaigns to fight over bullshit.

Before you dig in your heels, ask yourself why that might be. https://t.co/UmDnEObaCP

— Sam Adler-Bell (@SamAdlerBell) January 13, 2020

if this were true, seems like warren would have a responsibility to go on the record with confirmation! https://t.co/oTDgcmOJQm

— Ashley Feinberg (@ashleyfeinberg) January 13, 2020

Sanders hit back, telling CNN “It is ludicrous to believe that at the same meeting where Elizabeth Warren told me she was going to run for president, I would tell her that a woman couldn’t win.”

“It’s sad that, three weeks before the Iowa caucus and a year after that private conversation, staff who weren’t in the room are lying about what happened. What I did say that night was that Donald Trump is a sexist, a racist and a liar who would weaponize whatever he could. Do I believe a woman can win in 2020? Of course! After all, Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump by 3 million votes in 2016.“

If this stuff is coming *from* the Warren campaign, shame on them. It won’t help her win, but it could destroy our best chance at a progressive presidency. https://t.co/lnjhBGxCzj

— Sam Adler-Bell (@SamAdlerBell) January 13, 2020

Needless to say, there aren’t a lot of hot takes floating around which are supportive of this unbelievable, second-hand claim. 

Agreed. I have a hard time imagining this story is true. It’s just not what Bernie would say and I don’t think Warren would leak it. https://t.co/fiGiSKmvFB

— Matt Stoller (@matthewstoller) January 13, 2020

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

Ninety-seven percent of CFOs (corporate financial officers) surveyed in a new poll believe that the United States will be in recession by the end of 2020.

Eighty-eight percent of CFOs represented in the survey work at companies generating greater than $1 billion in annual revenue.

Corporate financial officers are forecasting an impending economic downturn, according to a new survey of around 150 chief financial officers conducted by the consulting firm Deloitte. In its CFO Signals report covering the last quarter of 2019, Deloitte found that 97 percent of CFOs queried believe either an economic slowdown or recession will occur before the end of 2020. This is up from 88 percent one year ago. –Newsweek

According to a report by Newsweek, by the end of 2018, many CFOs surveyed “began to cite external factors” such as trade policy “over internal factors as the dominant constraint on their companies’ performance,” the report noted. And increasing concerns about a reversal of the longest economic expansion in U.S. history come amid related anxieties about Trump administration policies that may be hampering growth.

The external risk most frequently cited by CFOs in the survey was a combination of trade policy and tariffs.

The second-most cited external risk is political turmoil and general instability. Companies are also growing increasingly worried about upcoming election. While the impact of the 2020 election was only cited by a relative handful of respondents, its placement on the chart has moved substantially upward since the third quarter of 2019. –Newsweek

The CFOs surveyed expect very low interest rates and 10-year bond yields. They again expect a strong U.S. dollar as well in the upcoming year. At the same time, consumer and business spending expectations have fallen; CFOs are less likely to expect higher industry revenue and prices, according to the press release at PRNewsWire. 

Expectations for a U.S. economic downturn have risen since earlier this year, with 97% of CFOs saying that a downturn in the economy (a slowdown or a recession) has already begun or will occur by the end of 2020.  That’s up quite a bit from the 88% reported in 1Q19. Overall, 12% of CFOs say they believe a downturn has already commenced, and 14% say they already see signs of a downturn in their company’s operations.

“Compared to early 2019, companies appear to be taking more defensive actions related to downturn expectations — particularly around reducing spending and limiting or reducing headcount. While CFOs expect some form of U.S. downturn by the end of 2020, the good news is that expectations of a full-blown recession have fallen sharply since 1Q19.”  – Sanford Cockrell III, national managing partner of the U.S. Chief Financial Officer Program, Deloitte LLP

Perhaps this explains why one of the market’s most important pillars of support – buybacks – have suddenly collapsed?

Bernie Sanders (I-VT) needs to lighten up on his Democratic opponents, or he risks damaging the party going into this year’s election against President Trump, according to The Hill. 

According to those complaining, the 78-year-old Sanders will make it harder for Democrats to unify around a nominee after months of taking flack from their own side of the aisle – despite the fact that a Friday poll has him in the lead, and that his no-holds-barred approach may earn him the nomination.

“He needs to stop,” said one Democratic strategist who is unaffiliated with any candidates. “It’s not helpful and it actually hurts the party. It’s like he didn’t learn his lesson the last time. It’s incredibly short-sighted and terrible.”

The strategist highlighted Sanders’ recent comments in a LA Times editorial board meeting where he said that President Trump will eat Joe Biden’s lunch if he is the nominee.

“Joe Biden is a personal friend of mine, so I’m not here to, you know, to attack him, but my God, if you are, if you’re a Donald Trump and got Biden having voted for the war in Iraq, Biden having voted for these terrible, in my view, trade agreements, Biden having voted for the bankruptcy bill. Trump will eat his lunch,” said Sanders.

Sanders has also unloaded on Democratic rival Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), after giving campaign volunteers a script to tell potential voters that she was appealing primarily to upper-income Democrats and would not attract new voters to the party.

“I was disappointed to hear that Bernie is sending his volunteers out to trash me,” said Warren. “I hope Bernie reconsiders and turns his campaign in a different direction.”

Bernie Sander’s volunteers are trashing Elizabeth “Pocahontus” Warren. Everybody knows her campaign is dead and want her potential voters. Mini Mike B is also trying, but getting tiny crowds which are all leaving fast. Elizabeth is very angry at Bernie. Do I see a feud brewing?

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 13, 2020

According to Clinton campaign veterans, this looks like 2016 all over again.

“In and of itself it shouldn’t take on too much meaning,” said Philippe Reines, a longtime communications adviser to Clinton. 

“But if it’s a harbinger of tone to come, that’s not great. And I say that as someone who doesn’t believe the primaries should be a cotillion or game of paddy cakes.” –The Hill

Reines also blames Sanders for not immediately backing Hillary Clinton when she won the nomination – after cheating against him, saying that Bernie “needs to either accept the plain fact — supported both quantitatively and anecdotally — that his supporters did not go all in for Hillary.”

“Giving him the benefit of the doubt about his intentions, he still needs to be mindful that at some point he might need to rally millions of people to support someone else. That’s not easy. You can’t just flip a switch. It’s a process. Your supporters have to believe you’re being genuine in your endorsement, and you have to convince them,” Reines added.

Sanders allies, meanwhile, take exception to the critics.

“I don’t see it any differently than Vice President Biden going after ‘Medicare for All,” said longtime Sanders ally Larry Cohen, chairman of Our Revolution – an organization which sprung from the 2016 Sanders campaign. “It should be about the issues and when we have differences and believe if something is better, we should say so.”