One ‘Deplorable’ Takes A Stand: “They’ve Gone Too Far!”

One ‘Deplorable’ Takes A Stand: “They’ve Gone Too Far!”

Authored by ‘sundance’ via TheConservativeTreehouse.com,

Stand…

They’ve gone too far. “Donald Trump’s supporters are racist“, or “uneducated”, or “unenlightened”, or (fill_In_The_Blank).  This hate-filled sentiment is clear within the latest corrupt and targeted impeachment attack against the office of the President.

Now the media narrative controllers are fully engaged, gleeful with impeachment blood-lust amid their broadcast brethren.  The raw political corruption is now extreme.

Do not look away.

As we bear witness, anyone trying to convince us this entire assembly of our union is headed in the right direction, well, they might want to revisit their proximity to the 2020 election ballpark. Because they’re not just out of the city – they’re also out of the same state the election ballpark is located in….. Then again, the media know that.

David Mamet had a famous saying, essentially: …‘in order for democrats, liberals, progressives et al to continue their illogical belief systems they have to pretend not to know a lot of things’… By pretending ‘not to know’ there is no guilt, no actual connection to conscience. Denial of truth allows easier trespass.

This hate-filled Democrat ideology relies on our willingness to accept their lies, falsehoods, and scripted presentations; and then demands we grant benefit amid their seeds of doubt.

There’s a level of anger far deeper and more consequential than expressed rage or visible behavior, it’s called Cold Anger.

Cold Anger does not need to go to violence. For those who carry it, no conversation is needed when we meet. You cannot poll or measure it; specifically because most who carry it avoid discussion… And that decision has nothing whatsoever to do with any form of correctness.

We watched the passage of Obamacare at 1:38am on the day before Christmas Eve in 2009. We watched the Senate, then the House attempt passing Amnesty in 2014. We know exactly how it passed, and we know exactly why it passed. We don’t need to stand around talking about it….

We know what lies hidden behind “cloture” and the UniParty schemes.

We watched the 2009 $900+ billion Stimulus Bill being spent each year, every year, for seven consecutive years. Omnibus, Porkulous, QE1, QE2, Bailouts, Crony-Capitalism. We know exactly how this works, and we know exactly why this ruse is maintained. We don’t need to stand around talking about it…. We’re beyond talking.

We accept that the entire Senate voted to block President Trump’s ability to use recess appointments in 2017, and 2018, and 2019. Every.Single.Democrat.And.Republican.

Cold Anger absorbs betrayal silently, often prudently.

We’ve waited each year, every year, for ten years, to see a federal budget, only to be given another Omnibus spending bill by “CONservative” politicians.

We’ve watched the ridiculing of cops, the riots, and the lack of support for laws, or their enforcement. We’ve been absorbing all that. We’ve been exposed to violence upon us by paid operatives of the organized DNC machine. We know; the media trying to hide it doesn’t change our level of information.

Cold Anger is not hatred, it is far more purposeful.

We watched in 2012 as the Democrat party thrice denied God during their convention. The doors to evil enterprise opened by official proclamation and request.

Cold Anger takes notice of the liars, even from a great distance – seemingly invisible to the mob. Cold Anger will still hold open the door for the riot goer. Mannerly.

We’ve watched our borders being intentionally unsecured.

We’ve watched Islamic Terrorists slaughter Americans as our politicians proclaim their uncertainty of motive. We know exactly who they are, and why they are doing it. We do not need to stand around discussing it…. we’re clear eyed.

Cold Anger evidenced is more severe because it is more strategic, and more purposeful. Eric Cantor’s defeat, Matt Bevin’s victory, Brexit, Donald Trump’s highest vote tally in the history of presidential primaries or President Trump’s victory might aide your  understanding.

Cold Anger does not gloat; it absorbs consistent vilification and ridicule as fuel. This sensibility does not want to exist, it is forced to exist in otherwise unwilling hosts – we also refuse to be destabilized by it.

Transgender bathrooms are more important than border security.

Illicit trade schemes, employment and the standard of living in Vietnam and Southeast Asia are more important to Wall Street and DC lobbyists, than the financial security of Youngstown Ohio.

We get it. We understand. We didn’t create that reality, we are simply responding to it.

The intelligence apparatus of our nation was weaponized against our candidate by those who controlled the levers of government. Now, with sanctimonious declarations they dismiss accountability.

Deliberate intent and prudence ensures we avoid failure. The course, is thoughtful vigilance; it is a strategy devoid of emotion. The media can call us anything they want, it really doesn’t matter…. we’re far beyond the place where labels matter.

Foolishness and betrayal of our nation have served to reveal dangers within our present condition. Misplaced corrective action, regardless of intent, is neither safe nor wise. We know exactly who Donald Trump is, and we also know what he is not. He is exactly what we need at this moment. He is a necessary glorious bastard.

He is our weapon.

Cold Anger is not driven to act in spite of itself; it drives a reckoning.

When the well attired leave the checkout line carrying steaks and shrimp using an EBT card, the door is still held open; yet notations necessarily embed.

When the U.S. flags lay gleefully undefended, they do not lay unnoticed. When the stars and stripes are controversial, yet a foreign flag is honored – we are paying attention.

When millionaire football players kneel down rather than honor our fallen soldiers and stand proud of our country, we see that. Check the NFL TV ratings – take note.

When a school community cannot openly pray, it does not mean the prayerful were absent.

When a liar seems to win, it is not without observation. Many – more than the minority would like to admit – know the difference between science, clocks and political agendas.

Cold Anger perceives deception the way the long-term battered absorb a blow in the hours prior to the pre-planned exit; with purpose.

A shield, or cry of micro-aggression will provide no benefit, nor quarter. Delicate sensibilities are dispatched like a feather in a hurricane.

We are patient, but also purposeful. Pushed far enough, decisions are reached.

[…] On the drive to and from the East Coast, I paid attention to the billboards and bumper-stickers. Folks, the people in “Fly over” country are PISSED, from the guy that guides hunters, to the mayors of towns and cities, to state senators congressmen and Governors who are voting to arrest and imprison federal law enforcement officials for enforcing federal gun laws that don’t agree with state law … The political pendulum has never, in the history of humanity, stayed on one side of a swing. The back lash from over reach has always been proportionate to how far off center it went before coming back … right now we’re staring at a whole hell of a lot of the country (about 80-90% of the land mass, as well as about 50+% of the population) that is FED UP. You really don’t want those guys to decide that the only way to fix it is to burn it down and start over… (more)

It’s too late…

This man has faced opposition that would overwhelm any other President.  Our chosen President is constantly attacked by those holding a corrupt, conniving and Godless leftist ideology.  It is our job now to stand with him, firm on his behalf.

To respond we must engage as an insurgency. We must modify our disposition to think like an insurgent. Insurgencies have nothing to lose. If insurgents are not victorious the system, which controls the dynamic, wins. However, if insurgents do nothing, the same system, which controls the dynamic, also wins.

Do nothing and we lose. Go to the mattresses, and we might win. The choice is ours.

Right now, through November 2020, every day is Saint Crispins day.

If we are mark’d to die, we are enow
To do our country loss; and if to live,
The fewer men, the greater share of honour.
God’s will! I pray thee, wish not one man more.
By Jove, I am not covetous for gold,
Nor care I who doth feed upon my cost;
It yearns me not if men my garments wear;
Such outward things dwell not in my desires.
But if it be a sin to covet honour,
I am the most offending soul alive.
No, faith, my coz, wish not a man from England.
God’s peace! I would not lose so great an honour
As one man more methinks would share from me
For the best hope I have. O, do not wish one more!
Rather proclaim it, Westmoreland, through my host,
That he which hath no stomach to this fight,
Let him depart; his passport shall be made,
And crowns for convoy put into his purse;
We would not die in that man’s company
That fears his fellowship to die with us.
This day is call’d the feast of Crispian.
He that outlives this day, and comes safe home,
Will stand a tip-toe when this day is nam’d,
And rouse him at the name of Crispian.
He that shall live this day, and see old age,
Will yearly on the vigil feast his neighbours,
And say ‘To-morrow is Saint Crispian.’
Then will he strip his sleeve and show his scars,
And say ‘These wounds I had on Crispian’s day.’
Old men forget; yet all shall be forgot,
But he’ll remember, with advantages,
What feats he did that day. Then shall our names,
Familiar in his mouth as household words-
Harry the King, Bedford and Exeter,
Warwick and Talbot, Salisbury and Gloucester-
Be in their flowing cups freshly rememb’red.
This story shall the good man teach his son;
And Crispin Crispian shall ne’er go by,
From this day to the ending of the world,
But we in it shall be remembered-
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he to-day that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother; be he ne’er so vile,
This day shall gentle his condition;
And gentlemen in England now-a-bed
Shall think themselves accurs’d they were not here,
And hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks
That fought with us upon Saint Crispin’s day.

The awakened American middle-class insurgency, led by Donald Trump, is an existential threat to the professional political class and every entity who lives in/around the professional political class. Their entire political apparatus is threatened by our insurgency. The political industry, all of corrupt governance, is threatened by our support through Donald Trump.

Decision time.

You know why the entire apparatus is united against President Trump. You know why the corrupt Wall Street financial apparatus is united against President Trump. You know why every institutional department, every lobbyist, every K-Street dweller, every career legislative member, staffer, and the various downstream economic benefactors, including the corporate media, all of it – all the above, are united against Donald Trump.

Donald Trump is an existential threat to the existence of a corrupt DC system we have exposed to his disinfecting sunlight. Donald Trump is the existential threat to every entity who benefits from that corrupt and vile system.

Global elites now stand with jaw-agape in horror as they witness the result.  The value of multi-billion dollar contracts dispatched at our leisure. Trillion dollar multi-national trade deals, full of scheme and graft, left nothing more than tenuous propositions smashed asunder from the mere sound of our approach.

The fundamental construct within decades of their united global efforts to tear at the very fabric of our U.S.A is being eliminated. They too have nothing to lose; their desperation becomes visible within their apoplexy; and they’re damn sure displaying it.

Do not look away.

Throw aside the sense of discomfort and bear witness to the evil we oppose. Do not turn your eyes from the hatred focused in our direction. Stand firm amid the solace of our number and resolve to the task at hand.

Those who oppose our efforts are merely vile parasites quivering as they stare into the Cold Anger furnace of righteousness.

Who fuels that furnace?

…..US !


Tyler Durden

Thu, 10/03/2019 – 16:45

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Watch What Happens When Climate Alarmists And High Pressure Hoses Mix

Watch What Happens When Climate Alarmists And High Pressure Hoses Mix

An environmental group’s plan to paint the British Treasury building in ‘blood’-red paint backfired Thursday morning after a decommissioned fire engine experienced a hose malfunction, spraying just about everything but the building in the vicinity with 475 gallons of red liquid. 

The group, Extinction Rebellion, was unable to wrestle the hose back under control, coating the road, sidewalk and front steps of the building in the red water, while a sign which read “STOP FUNDING CLIMATE DEATH” hung from the vehicle. 

The activists’ plan, according to a statement about their protest, was to draw attention to what they say is the British government’s inconsistent messaging on climate change. The government claims to be a world leader in studying the way humans have affected global temperature and the decline of ecosystems worldwide, the activists say, while also pouring “vast sums” into “fossil fuel exploration and carbon-intensive projects.” –WaPo

The activists – three men and one woman, remained on the fire truck and were promptly arrested according to a Met Police spokesman. 

The stunt was conducted ahead of an October 7th coordinated global climate rally called International Rebellion which includes activists from 60 countries, who plan to pressure their governments to act on climate change.

We’re guessing Chinese protesters aren’t included, nor will there be any protest of the world’s largest polluter by volume. 

 The group is calling for a net-zero reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2025 and the creation of a Citizens’ Assembly on “climate and ecological diversity.”

Talking to British radio station LBC on Thursday morning, London Mayor Sadiq Khan said the climate change activist group involved in the fire-hose fiasco was responsible for putting additional pressure on a police service that is already “under-resourced and overstretched.” –WaPo

“What a complete disgrace these people are,” tweeted Conservative Party politician Susan Hall. “I hope they are made to pay for the removal of this paint and the waste of Police and Fire Officers time. If they think this helps their cause they can think again!”

“People doing stupid things like this, totally undermine the debate put forward by people who genuinely want to address climate change,” tweeted another conservative MP, James Cleverly. 


Tyler Durden

Thu, 10/03/2019 – 16:25

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The Hunt For Red October… Is Over

The Hunt For Red October… Is Over

This is the worst start to Q3 in US equity markets since 2008…

It seems the stock market is playing chicken with The Fed – sell off to force dovish bias that The Fed would be loathe to disappoint BUT rally back to front-run The Fed’s dovish bias and you remove The Fed’s need to be dovish…

Source: Bloomberg

NOTE – the moment the market priced in another 25bps of cuts, stocks soared back.

“the hard part about playing chicken is knowing when to flinch.”

China remains closed for Golden Week.

European stocks were lower (with FTSE worst) but chopped around on US ISM before the EU Close (Germany closed today)…

Source: Bloomberg

US markets were just comical – crashing on the dismal ISM data, then exploding higher (on no news) as the funds market priced in more rate-cuts – Nasdaq ended up over 1%!!! (after being down 1% in the morning)…

On the week, all US majors remain red, with Trannies the biggest laggards…

Nasdaq and Dow bounced perfectly off their 200DMA…

And while today’s big drop was bid (as we noted above on the back of market pricing in more easing), Gold remains the biggest winner since ISM Manufacturing tumbled…Gold is up 3%, S&P is down 3%

 

VIX topped 21 intraday again but ended lower on the day (and the term structure remains inverted)

 

“Most Shorted” Stocks soared on yet another short-squeeze…

Source: Bloomberg

Momo and Value continues to diverge this week…

Source: Bloomberg

1987 anyone?

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields all tumbled today but the short-end dropped dramatically (2Y -10bps, 30Y -5bps)

Source: Bloomberg

30Y Yields pushed back closer to 2.0% again today…

Source: Bloomberg

The 3M10Y yield curve remains inverted (and is the most accurate measure) but 2Y10Y has steepened dramatically this week, which as Jeff Gundlach noted, after the inversion, is the most dangerous time…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar fell out of bed on the ISM miss and never filled gap (into the red for the week)…

Source: Bloomberg

With China on holiday all week, offshore yuan is strengthening…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos drifted lower today but remain barely positive on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

Precious metals rallied back into the green for the week as crude crumbled further…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold futures tested up to $1525, legging higher on the ISM Services data…

 

WTI Futures traded briefly with a $50 handle intraday.

 

Finally, we will take a brief victory lap as we warned the end of the surge in US macro data would come after the government fiscal year spendfest ended… and indeed, since the end of September, data has collapsed…

Source: Bloomberg

And judging by the plunge in CEO confidence, things are about to get a whole lot worse in ‘hard’ data…

While top-down is not pretty, bottom-up is getting ugly too…

And just in case you weren’t nervous about tomorrow’s payrolls data… ISM Employment data suggests, you should be!

Source: Bloomberg


Tyler Durden

Thu, 10/03/2019 – 16:01

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And It Begins: Kroger Lays Off Hundreds Amid Failed Turnaround

And It Begins: Kroger Lays Off Hundreds Amid Failed Turnaround

Earlier this month, Kroger Co. announced a disappointing 2Q19 earnings call after CEO Rodney McMullen warned that the grocery chain wouldn’t reconfirm its three-year forecast to hit profit targets amid a turnaround effort. As a result, Kroger said this week that it would start the process of laying off hundreds of employees across the family of grocery stores it owns.

“As part of ongoing talent management, many store operating divisions are evaluating middle management roles and team structures with an eye toward keeping resources close to the customer,” a Kroger spokesperson said in a statement. “Store divisions operate independently, but all of them are taking steps to ensure they have the right talent in the right store leadership positions.”

Kroger didn’t specify how many job cuts were anticipated — but sources told CNBC that it’s likely to be in the hundreds.

The company’s turnaround effort is showing signs of distress, and macroeconomic headwinds in the economy could produce a weakening consumer that would contribute to declining retail sales next year.

The grocery chain, which also owns Harris Teeter, Ralphs, Fred Meyer, has 443,000 full-time and part-time employees across its stores as of fiscal 2018.

The layoffs were announced as the company increases technology investments into e-commerce, automation, artificial intelligence, last-mile deliveries, and meal kits. Kroger is trying to stay ahead or at least compete with Amazon and Walmart.

The profit warning earlier this month from McMullen sent shares lower in the last 14 sessions, down nearly 4.5%.

Labor costs continue to be a significant issue for Kroger, as unions continue to gain ground ahead of the 2020 Election, CNBC noted. Kroger, unlike Amazon and Walmart, has a unionized workforce, that has caused tremendous margin compression as the company struggles with unwanted expenses tied to union contracts.

“Our financial results continue to be pressured by inefficient healthcare and pension costs, which some of our competitors do not face,” CFO Gary Millerchip told analysts earlier this month.

Kroger’s failed turnaround into the possibility of a recession in 2020 could result in more job cuts.


Tyler Durden

Thu, 10/03/2019 – 15:55

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Pakistani Kashmir Chief: Standoff With India May Spark Nuclear Armageddon

Pakistani Kashmir Chief: Standoff With India May Spark Nuclear Armageddon

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

The head of Pakistan’s Azad Kashmir said that a small-scale conflict between his country and India-rivals could ignite a nuclear war that would kill hundreds of millions. Kashmir made these comments just days after Prime Minister Imran Khan addressed India with similar rhetoric.

The threat of nuclear war may be upon the globe.

“If a war breaks out between India and Pakistan, it will be quick, dirty and deadly. It will be an Armageddon, hundreds of millions will die in South Asia, and 2.5 billion people will be affected by radiation all over the world,” said Masood Khan, the president of the Pakistani-controlled part of Kashmir, according to a report by RT.

“Even a limited military conflict could evolve into a nuclear war,” said Khan.

Just because other countries wouldn’t be involved in this particular war, the consequences of unleashing a nuclear weapon would have far-reaching effects.

Khan, Pakistan’s former envoy to the United Nations, then struck a milder tone, saying his country is not seeking war, but he wants to predict “a realistic scenario so that international community could intervene and pile pressure on India.”

So basically, Kahn is still asking for violence, just as long as it’s on his side only.

India and Pakistan fought two wars over Kashmir in 1947 and 1965, and have engaged in an array of smaller cross-border skirmishes, most recently this February. At the time, the nuclear-armed neighbors came disturbingly close to full-scale war, but mutual diplomatic efforts and goodwill gestures helped defuse the tensions for a while, reported RT

Last week, Prime Minister Imran Khan warned that a “bloodbath was brewing in the disputed territory, and hinted that weapons of mass destruction could be employed against India if war breaks out. The remarks were condemned in New Delhi, with government ministers and pundits accusing him of warmongering” and “obsession with Kashmir.”


Tyler Durden

Thu, 10/03/2019 – 15:40

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Watch Out Below: Why Earnings Expectations Are About To Plunge

Watch Out Below: Why Earnings Expectations Are About To Plunge

It may come as a surprise to some, but as we first pointed out in late July when Q2 earnings season was peaking, the earnings recession – traditionally a harbinger to the broader, economic recession – is already here as a result of two consecutive quarter of declining earnings Y/Y. And, with Q3 earnings season on deck, its set to get worse.

As Morgan Stanley calculated, S&P 500 y/y EPS growth came in at roughly zero in 1Q and 2Q…

… while the much broader S&P 1000 EPS growth is closer to -6% for 1Q and 2Q.F

Worse, the recession is set to get far worse with consensus now estimating Q3 y/y EPS growth for the S&P 500 will be -4% and S&P 1000 will be closer to -9%. And while some investors have dismissed this as either ‘old news’ or a temporary trough before a reacceleration, the problem with that argument, in the view of Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson, is that the same one was proposed in April and then again in July, “yet 3Q EPS growth estimates are now lower than 2Q and 4Q looks vulnerable to further revisions.

And yet, as Wilson pointed out, “the S&P 500 seems not to care either and so we have to acknowledge that perhaps the market knows something we do not.” To this, the Morgan Stanley strategist counters that the market is once again blissfully complacent, and his own earnings model has proven to be accurate this year, and over time, and is still indicating that next year’s consensus estimates of $181 are about 10 percent too high.

Wilson’s take: it is “hard to believe the market won’t care if next year’s EPS potentially falls $20 over the next few quarters.

Sarcasm aside, of course the market will care, unless the Fed finds some way to boost P/E multiples by 2-3 additional turns (coughQE4cough). Alternatively, perhaps the market has some uncanny ability to see the future better than the most accurate sellside strategist of 2018. While Wilson briefly considers this possibility, he then quickly dismisses it noting that one key market limitation is that “it has a difficult time thinking beyond 12 months.”

This is also why the MS equity team uses next 12 months EPS rather than calendar year forecasts when looking at valuations; the bank explains that it has found this time period to have the highest efficacy to predicting stock prices, but herein lies a problem, too: “Over the past 20 years, we believe the investment community has become over reliant on company guidance for its earnings forecasts. Therefore, earnings forecasts tend to be more tightly clustered today for the time periods for which there is “company guidance.”

But most companies don’t provide guidance beyond their current fiscal year, which means the following year tends to be an extension of the longer term averages and/or current trends, which is where we find ourselves today.

Indeed, as we have moved through 2019 and watched earnings guidance drop every quarter, the estimates have followed… “but the numbers haven’t changed as much for2020 because companies don’t guide that far out, leaving 2020 estimates unrealistic.

As a result, today consensus bottom up forecasts 10.4% EPS growth for the S&P 500, allowing the forward 12 months EPS to remain flat and even rise this year as we have gone forward in time. According to Wilson, “it is very unusual for the index to sell off much when next 12 months EPS is rising, as it has been this year. Quite frankly, this was a bit of a miss on our part as we just assumed these numbers would follow the 2019 cuts, but they haven’t.”

Why is thie relevant? Because as Wilson concludes, the trend in forward EPS forecasts is about to turn down again, much like it did last fall, for three reasons:

First, this is the time of the year when companies may have to give up any furtherexpectation of a rebound for the year if it has not emerged yet. As a reminder, the second half of 2019 is when many companies expected we would see an earnings recovery; instead this has failed to materialize and another disappointing quarter of results and guidance would seal the deal on 2019.

But what about 2020? While most companies likely will not guide on 2020 until January, some will start to lower the bar if they know it is unachievable to avoid further disappointment, particularly if stocks fall on bad earnings results.

Finally, and perhaps more importantly, we ares tarting to see the forward estimates come down now for the mid caps and small caps which have been leading the S&P 500 lower in this earnings recession (chart below). It is also worth pointing out that small / mid caps have underperformed materially this year which makes sense given the material deterioration in NTM EPS that has been going on all year.

The bottom line on the deteriorating earnings recession is that according to Morgan Stanley, the market (at the index level) has generally ignored the poor results to date simply because the 12 month forecasts have yet to fall. This is largely a technical issue related to stale 2020 estimates that will soon be cleaned up as we go through October and November, much like lastyear.

That, as Michael Wilson concludes, “should put downward pressure on the index like it has for the small and mid cap indices all year”, and lead to the S&P swinging from trading near Morgan Stanley’s upper price target band…

… to the lower one. The only question is when.


Tyler Durden

Thu, 10/03/2019 – 15:27

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The Fed’s “Insurance” Rate Cuts Didn’t Work. Now For The Emergency Cuts

The Fed’s “Insurance” Rate Cuts Didn’t Work. Now For The Emergency Cuts

Authored by John Rubino via DollarCollapse.com,

Pity the guys now running the Fed. They’ve inherited an economy that requires ever-bigger infusions of new credit and ever-lower interest rates to avoid financial cardiac arrest. But with interest rates already perilously close to zero the usual leeway is no longer there.

Making the best of a bad hand, Fed chair Jerome Powell has been cutting the Fed Funds rate but managing expectations for future cuts by calling the current ones “recalibration” and “insurance.” In other words, “don’t expect a quick excursion into steeply-negative territory. In fact this latest cut might be all there is.”

But the economy, like any addict, is profoundly uncomfortable with not knowing where the next fix is coming from and is behaving accordingly. From just the past couple of days’ headlines:

US manufacturing survey contracts to worst level in a decade

US gross national debt jumps by $1.2 trillion, to $22.7 trillion

Growth hits the wall

Student loan debt soars, totaling $1.6 trillion in 2019

There is good reason to fear the repo

Midwest’s faltering economies will spread pain nationwide

Treasury yields sink after U.S. manufacturing weakness raises recession fears

VC veterans host emergency meeting of unicorns as IPO ‘bubble’ implodes

Now equities are picking up the anxious vibe. See Global stocks plunge for a second day to start Q4.

What happens next? Almost certainly, a “coordinated” round of aggressive easing by the US Fed, the ECB and BoJ. With some unconventional coercion thrown in by the People’s Bank of China.

As for the timing, it’s just a question of “the number.”

That is, how far does the S&P 500 have to fall before the stampede begins. Since this question will be answered by a bunch of largely clueless men dripping fear sweat and trying to figure out why their models have stopped working (and more poignantly why their life’s work has turned out to be a fraud), the number is unknowable in advance.

But it probably won’t take too many more days like the last couple before the Fed issues its “whatever it takes” statement, cuts rates by a half-point or more, and initiates a QE program that includes equities along with bonds.

Oh, and before a US-China trade deal is signed that accomplishes little but is sold as “historic” and “huge.”

And before a trillion-dollar infrastructure plan passes both houses of Congress with bi-partisan support.

Stocks will of course pop on these announcements, which makes the “short everything in sight” impulse less than the sure thing it appears. But the initial upward thrust won’t hold because there are limits to both how far interest rates can fall and how big central bank balance sheets can become before even the pretense of capitalist free markets evaporates. We don’t know what those limits are but they’re definitely out there.

Source: Bloomberg

Put another way, an economy that has been LBO-ed by its government is no economy at all.


Tyler Durden

Thu, 10/03/2019 – 15:10

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NK Tests Sub-Launched Ballistic Missile In Show Of “Second-Strike Capability”

NK Tests Sub-Launched Ballistic Missile In Show Of “Second-Strike Capability”

North Korea has confirmed a new successful missile launch on Wednesday, which notably involved its first submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) in three years, and a new type of “vertical mode” ballistic missile. 

The test was “to contain external threats and bolster self-defense” as Reuters reports, and comes just two days ahead of working level talks with the United States in Stockholm, Sweden at the end of this week. 

Photo of the launch in the official NK newspaper Rodong Sinmun.

State news agency KCNA hailed the “successful” test as of “great significance” as it marks a “new phase” in defending North Korea from the threat of “outside forces” via a “new-type ballistic missile fired in vertical mode” in waters off Wonsan Bay.

There’s little doubt that the tests are meant to give Pyongyang some last minute leverage just before heading into talks with Washington

Noting the crucial timing of the SLMB test, The Guardian reports the following:

Ankit Panda of the Federation of American Scientists described the missile, the Pukguksong-3, as Pyongyang’s longest-range-capable solid-fuel missile, adding that Wednesday’s launch was “unambiguously the first nuclear-capable missile test since November 2017”.

“Kim Jong Un’s ‘rocket men’ kept busy during the diplomatic charm offensives of 2018-2019,” Panda added.

Analysts believe it was likely launched from a special underwater platform designed for the test, or possibly from a submarine. 

Wednesday’s SLMB launch, via KCNA/Reuters

The ability to launch SLMBs from submarines or from anywhere in the water gives the north a “second-strike capability”. If its bases or cities come under attack, it can rely on its underwater arsenal, which is considered much harder for other nations’ defenses to detect. 

Meanwhile, South Korea’s military described that Wednesday’s test involved the missile traveling about 450km in an easterly direction and reaching an altitude of 910km.


Tyler Durden

Thu, 10/03/2019 – 14:55

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Corporate Buybacks Accelerate To Strongest Weekly Level In History

Corporate Buybacks Accelerate To Strongest Weekly Level In History

When it comes to politics, one thing is certain: it is all about fake news, and how it is spun. Which is why some people prefer finance: after all, when it comes to math-based financial data, reality is either a 1 or a 0.

Unfortunately, it now turns out that even financial “data” can mean whatever one wishes to read from it. Case in point: today’s CNBC appearance by Goldman’s chief equity strategist David Kostin, who when commenting on the fate of the market in the context of trade war, warned that stock buybacks – the primary driver of stock upside together with the Fed in the past decade – “are getting muted” (1’40” in the clip below) and thus clients are turning cautious.

There is just one problem with Kostin’s statement: it is dead wrong, at least according to the latest buyback data from Bank of America’s trading desk.

As BofA’s Jill Carey Hall writes in her latest client flow trends, “corporate buybacks accelerated to their strongest weekly level in our data history since 2009″, led by Tech buybacks for the fifth week. This is in line with BofA’s expectations, which had predicted that tech would benefit from a ramp up in buybacks YTD given the high announced/completed buyback ratio for the sector heading into the year.

As a result of this burst in stock repurchases, cumulative YTD buybacks are now +25% YoY, with 3Q to date buybacks +39% YoY and stronger than normal seasonal trends (which typically slow through late Sept, and pick up over the next ~6 weeks amid earnings season).

In other words, far from “muted” – as Goldman claims- stock buybacks heading into the Q3 blackout period have been bigger.

But why did buybacks just soar to an all time high? After all, isn’t it naive and foollish to launch a record stock repurchase program with the S&P at all time highs? Well, no, when the one paying for it is the greatest fool of all – the yield-starved corporate bond investor. Recall that September saw a record monthly corporate bond issuance, with some $434 billion in bonds sold globally, $5 billion more than the previous all time high of March 2017.

And since a substantial portion of the proceeds is used for stock buybacks, it should not come as a surprise that we just saw a record week for stock buybacks… and why stocks are surging today even as both PMIs now suggest the US is headed for a recession.

But if companies are buying every share of their stock they can find – with no price discrimination – who are the sellers? We know that answer too: as we reported a week ago,  corporate insiders – typically CEOs, CFOs, and board members, but also venture capital and other early state investors – sold a combined $19BN of stock in their companies through to mid-September. Annualized, on track to hit $26BN for the year, which would mark the most active year for insider sales since 2000, when executives sold $37bn of stock amid the idiotic frenzy of the first tech bubble. That 2019 total would also set a post-crisis high, eclipsing the $25bn of stock sold in 2017.

Finally, as for Goldman once again completely misrepresenting reality and peddling “fake news”, we hope that by now that comes as no surprise to any of our regular readers.


Tyler Durden

Thu, 10/03/2019 – 14:40

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2OgEojD Tyler Durden

Michael Moore: Joe Biden Is ‘This Year’s Hillary’ 

Michael Moore: Joe Biden Is ‘This Year’s Hillary’ 

Liberal film director Michael Moore – who called Trump’s 2016 victory (and may have inadvertently contributed to it), says that former Vice President Joe Biden is “this year’s Hillary.”

During an interview with MSNBC this week, the “Fahrenheit 11/9” director called out Biden for saying he “never” discussed his son’s business dealings in Ukraine, while in a different interview saying they had spoken a few times. 

Joe Biden is not going to excite the base to get out there and vote on Nov. 3, 2020,” Moore added. “The things that he said publicly are very strong … “But it looks like he’s not really wanting to deal with it. He’s afraid to be out there.” 

Moore’s suggestion? “We need all the candidates right now — need to be unified and coming at this full force. No backing down and no trying to placate the other and none of this, ‘Well we have to wait and see.’” 

Moore was one of the few liberal personalities to predict Donald Trump would win the presidential election in 2016 — and claimed earlier on that Biden would be the one to overtake Trump in a presidential race.

He still believes that — but feels the former vice president needs to take a stronger stance on the allegations against the Biden family in order to motivate people to come out and “vote against Trump.”

The heat is on Joe Biden’s son, Hunter Biden, following Trump’s and others’ accusations that the two Biden men were in some way involved in corruption connected to Burisma Holdings, the Ukranian natural gas company on whose board Hunter Biden sat (and pulled in $50,000 a month for doing so though he had no experience in this area of business). –The Political Insider

Perhaps Moore will make another campaign ad for Trump this time around?


Tyler Durden

Thu, 10/03/2019 – 14:25

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/30JJDem Tyler Durden