Category: zerohedge

After a handful of mixed regional Fed survey, moments ago the Richmond Fed printed for the month of June, and if it serves as a tiebreaker, then the US economy is deep in a recession.

Expected to rebound modestly from already a near-contractionary print of 3 to 5 following the recent euphoric Philly Fed print, the mid-Atlantic index instead suffered its biggest drop in two years, dropping by 14 points to a whopping -12, the lowest print since January 2013…

 

… as all three components — shipments, new orders, and employment — registered declines.

The biggest reason behind the unexpected plunge – the orderbook has suddenly disintegrated as order backlogs fell to −26, the lowest reading since April 2009.

It gets worse: firms reported worsening local business conditions, as this index dropped from 7 to −18, its largest one-month drop on record. Of course, there was optimism, and respondents remained somewhat optimistic that conditions would improve in the coming months.

The weakness was broad based as Survey results further indicated that employment and the average workweek declined in July. However, wage growth continued among survey respondents. Firms continued to struggle to find workers with the necessary skills and expect that struggle to continue in the next six months.

The full table of components is below:

and visually:

The growth rates of both prices paid and prices received rose in July, as growth of prices paid outpaced that of prices received. Survey participants, on average, expected growth of both prices paid and prices received to slow in the near future.

The biggest paradox, however, is that just last week the Beige Book for the Richmond Area reported the following:

Since our previous Beige Book report, the Fifth District economy grew at a modest rate. Manufacturers saw a slight increase in shipments and new orders, but continued to face challenges from the current trade environment. Import volumes remained strong and, at one port, the composition of imports is shifting from China to other Asian countries.

Meanwhile, the actual Richmond Fed survey shows collapsing orders, shipments and employment.

It’s almost as if the US is now desperate to overtake China in the completely made up economic bullshit department, simply to justify whatever policy measure the Fed is undertaking next.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2Z5QtKZ Tyler Durden

After May’s surprise rebound, existing home sales were expected to slow in June and dropped more than expected (falling 1.7% MoM against expectations of a modest 0.4%) to 5.27mm SAAR.

“Sales refuse to break out higher,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said at a briefing in Washington.

“It doesn’t make economic sense” with job creation, rising wages and the stock market reaching records.

This is the 16th month of annual declines in existing home sales…

Home purchases declined in the South, the biggest region, to the slowest rate since January. Sales fell to a three-month low in the West. They increased in the Midwest and Northeast.

While rates have tumbled – helping affordability – the median home price rose 4.3% from last year to $285,700, erasing that affordability edge.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2Z6gk5z Tyler Durden

For the fourth time in a month, Bitcoin prices have tested back below the $10,000 Maginot Line this morning and the rest of cryptos are worse.

A sea of red…

Source: Coin360

Bitcoin is back below $10,000…

But Litecoin leads the week’s losses…

However, demand remains high elsewhere in the world, as CoinTelegraph’s William Suberg details, Venezuelans traded more bolivars for Bitcoin  than ever before last week, but the statistics say more about fiat than cryptocurrency. 

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph

Data from Coin Dance, which tracks trading activity on P2P exchanges Localbitcoins, Paxful and Bisq, confirmed the seven days to July 20 were Venezuela’s biggest on record.

During that period, users on LocalBitcoins alone generated volumes of over 57 billion bolivars, beating the previous all-time high of 49 billion, which appeared in the previous week.

Weekly LocalBitcoins Volume (Venezuelan Bolivar) Courtesy of Coin.dance

As Cointelegraph reported, Venezuela’s currency continues to suffer from runaway inflation, which estimates claim has reached 10,000,000%, leading citizens to resort to alternative means of storing value. 

The country’s official alternative, state-issued digital currency Petro, was declared a failure by a United States nonprofit this month. 

But there’s a catch

Yet as the bolivar count on Localbitcoins keeps growing, in Bitcoin terms, the number is falling. The 57 billion figure for last week equated to just 574 BTC — considerably less than in some previous weeks earlier this year. 

Underscoring the weakening bolivar, Venezuela’s cryptocurrency trading is not supported by the government, which also imposed embargoes on foreign currency. 

Earlier this year, the Lightning Torch transaction relay raised 0.4 BTC ($4,000) in funds among Bitcoin users for Venezuelans unable to escape the country.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2Ob6lLf Tyler Durden

Authored by Richard Breslow via Bloomberg,

The next in a long line of moments of truth for the ECB will soon be upon us. And in typical fashion the market is gearing up to have a last-minute debate about whether they will stick to consensus expectations or surprise with a move this month rather than teeing one up for September. Traders love to drive themselves crazy. To make matters more fun, there isn’t even agreement on what sooner rather than later, bigger rather than less, will mean for the currency. Such is the extent of dollar bearishness.

Getting in under the wire, lest anyone be under the misapprehension that rate cutting is anything but a global phenomenon, are dovish comments by officials at several other central banks. They aren’t scheduled to imminently do anything, but seemingly want to make sure everyone knows they are on the case. This non-currency war gets more interesting by the week.

RBA’s Christopher Kent could have been speaking for a lot of his global peers when he said, that, in response to their recent rate cuts, the exchange-rate transmission mechanism has been working as one would expect. Adding, with what seems like great candor, without the rate cuts “the Aussie dollar might have been higher.” And I’m sure EUR/JPY being within shouting distance of the post-flash crash year-to-date lows wasn’t lost on BOJ’s Haruhiko Kuroda. The RBNZ just admitted to taking a new look at potential unconventional monetary policy should it be needed. So much for any breakout for the kiwi above $0.6815. Not to be outdone, Bank of Korea Governor Lee Ju-yeol assured parliament that he’s also ready to act if needed.

It has been quite a day on the monetary-policy front. No wonder so many of the world’s equity indexes are having a happy day.

It’s a testimony to just how ubiquitous are the promises and hints at further liquidity infusions, that PBOC Governor Yi Gang sounded positively hawkish when he said earlier Tuesday that China’s interest rates are at an appropriate level. More importantly, given all the allusions to “global headwinds”, he said the bank will set interest rate policy “based on its own situation.” Cue the next round of trade talks.

But the most important remarks came from the Bank of England’s Michael Saunders. He said, in a Bloomberg interview, that Brexit “vulnerabilities“ could prevent any rate hike even if their forecasts imply a need to do so. Talk about known unknowns.

Once again, a central bank is inching closer to market pricing rather than the other way around. When I read this, I couldn’t help but think back to a comment made in 2012 by then Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher. In what at the time seemed like sacrilege, he said:

“I would caution, again, that at best, the economic forecasts and interest-rate projections of the FOMC are ultimately pure guesses.”

Boy was he right.

Yet it is a truth the market still struggles with as they continue to parse with great intensity the latest staff projections, dots and comments. Traders knew, or should have, what to do when forward guidance was having its hay day. When trying to discern policy-maker reaction functions, they hung on every word uttered in speeches. Comforted in the knowledge that everyone agreed that no surprises was the order of the day. During the period when data-dependence was purported to be the key, investors were told which numbers mattered most and went from there. We may now be entering a period of educated guessing.

NY Fed President John Williams’ comments got the lion share of last week’s attention. But it was actually Governor Richard Clarida’s comments that will have lasting import. He made it quite clear that the Committee is willing to make rate decisions based on forecasts. Gone are the “whites of their eyes” notion. And it’s going to make it harder to handicap what they are likely to do. You have to be impressed with their self-confidence.

The dollar, unsurprisingly, is having a good day. But both the Dollar and Bloomberg Dollar Indexes have risen right into resistance. Now it gets really interesting. Trading wise and, perhaps, politically.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2OfdNVX Tyler Durden

The world’s largest central banks are preparing for a policy u-turn, some have questioned whether ‘more of the same’ from the ECB will be enough to revive the continent’s moribund economy. In fact, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink  speculated that the ECB would need to start buying stocks for its stimulus to have any impact – though he acknowledged that there would be repercussions.

On Tuesday, just hours after his bank reported its best Q2 results in nine years, UBS Chief Sergio Ermotti sat down for an interview with Bloomberg and warned that the next round of monetary easing, which could begin with the ECB later this week, might risk bursting the tremendous asset bubble that has formed over the past decade of QE-driven policy.

“I’d be very, very careful about growing further the balance sheet of central banks,” Ermotti said. “We are at a risk of creating an asset bubble.”

If Europe wants to revive economic growth, it needs to focus on political and economic reforms, not rely on central bank money printing, which accomplishes little aside from inflating asset prices.

The ECB “can only help in a transition, it’s not a solution to the problem,” Ermotti said.

Unfortunately, at this point, the ECB is probably already set on its policy path. A team of analysts at Goldman Sachs laid out three “bundles” which Mario Draghi could unveil later this week as he sets the bank back on course for more stimulus before handing the reins to Christine Lagarde later this year. These “bundles” include small, medium and large bundles that reflect different levels of stimulus.

According to Bloomberg, money markets are pricing in a 40% chance of a 10-basis-point rate cut at Thursday’s meeting. They also expect the central bank to restart its asset-purchase program later this year. Net bond purchases by central banks will soon swing back above zero.

As anybody who has been paying close attention to US markets could tell you, the “about-face” by central banks, particularly expectations that the Fed will deliver a rate cut next week, has fueled a torrid rebound in stocks and bonds, creating a growing pile of debt with negative yields, and sending US benchmarks to new highs.

Though there has been a mild recovery in US economic data this month,in Europe, the rally seems to be based solely on expectations for more central bank stimulus, and nothing further.

“Asset prices went up but it’s not really correlated with investor sentiment, which is in my point of view, of course, a very dangerous development,” said Ermotti.

Still, many investors have remained on the sidelines this year, fearing the collapse of trade talks between Washington and Beijing, or some other risk event, could undermine markets. Ermotti said that client cash balances remain “very high,” which could also suggest that the melt up has more room to run, and that investors aren’t simply waiting to “sell the fact” when and if the ECB and the Fed cut interest rates.

“What they say is that they’re willing to step into the market if there’s a major correction,” Ermotti said.

Watch a clip from the interview below:

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/32OVD0y Tyler Durden

There’s good news, bad news, and goldillocks news from today’s IMF report.

Bad News: For the fourth time in a row, The International Monetary Fund is downgrading its outlook for the world economy because of simmering international trade tensions.

The IMF expects the global economy to expand by a “sluggish” 3.2% in 2019, down from 3.6% in 2018 and from the 3.3% growth it forecast for this year back in April.

“The projected growth pickup in 2020 is precarious, presuming stabilization in currently stressed emerging market and developing economies and progress toward resolving trade policy differences,” the IMF said.

“The principal risk factor to the global economy is that adverse developments — including further U.S.-China tariffs, U.S. auto tariffs, or a no-deal Brexit — sap confidence, weaken investment, dislocate global supply chains, and severely slow global growth below the baseline,” the IMF said.

It forecasts 6.2% growth for the Chinese economy, slowest since 1990 when China faced sanctions following the brutal crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrations in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square.

Good News: The IMF boosts its forecast for the U.S. economy this year, citing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates.

The fund now expects the U.S. economy to grow 2.6% in 2019, down from 2.9% last year but up from the 2.3% it forecast in April.

Goldilocks News: While the IMF saw global trade slowing this year more significantly as a result of the trade tensions, it predicted a bounce back to 3.7% growth in volumes in 2020, the same pace as 2018.

“It’s absolutely urgent to end these trade wars as soon as possible, to not escalate, and also to roll back the tariffs in place,” Chief Economist Gita Gopinath said in an interview with Bloomberg’s Tom Keene ahead of Tuesday’s report.

“That will have a big boost to business sentiment that will raise investment and be good for the global economy.”

Watch the press conference here:

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Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

The EU thinks there is an 80% chance of no deal. Yet, less than 50% of the UK thinks the UK will leave at all.

Will Boris Johnson Really Leave the EU?

Boris Johnson’s pitch throughout the Conservative leadership election has been that October 31st is a hard deadline for Brexit. Having already seen two deadlines come and go, the former Foreign Secretary declared delivering on this third date will be “do or die”.

The public doesn’t buy it, however.

New YouGov Tracker Data finds that 56% think it’s unlikely that the UK will have left the EU by the end of October. This is twice the number (27%) who think it’s likely.

EU Believes 80% Chance of No Deal

Meanwhile, the EU Believes there’s an 80% Chance of No Deal.

Brussels fears his campaign rhetoric and pledges on the backstop and leaving on October 31 “do or die” have made a compromise solution near impossible.

They are now bracing for ill-tempered talks with the new PM over the summer – and having to “shoot down” ideas already tested and discarded by Mrs May.

Member States now expect an EU Council summit on October 17 to become all about crisis planning for a crash out at the end of the month.

Officials also dismissed Mr Johnson’s bid to seek a tariff and quota free “standstill” trading arrangement with the EU in the event on No Deal.

Instead, they said the new PM would have to negotiate similar market access terms to those contained in the backstop, only on a “worse basis”.

Crash Out? Worse Basis?

For starters it will not be a “crash out”. It will be a “WTO out”.

If the EU is foolish enough to insist on a worse basis, then they will not get any Brexit Exit Fee payment from Johnson.

Who’s Bluffing Whom?

It’s difficult to know if the EU is just posturing or if they really intend to make themselves more miserable than the UK.

The notion the UK will be hurt more by Brexit is nonsensical. But if the EU really believes that, they may go for it.

All we know now is what the sides say they will do. As the clock ticks down, what will the EU and Johnson really do?

I happen to believe Johnson and I am now of the opinion that 80% is about right.

Delusional Remainers

Remainers, Labour, and Liberal Democrats are completely oblivious to reality.

Perhaps they think Boris will seek an extension. Other than a couple weeks to tie up loose ends, forget about it.

Nor can Parliament stop Brexit.

All Parliament can do, but it better act immediately, is force an election in time to matter, then win that vote.

That’s quite the parlay and it might be impossible after July 25. It will be impossible, even under the most favorable assumptions after September 10.

For further discussion, please see UK Foreign Minister in Bizarre Plot to Persuade the Queen to Reject Johnson.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2y3EQIL Tyler Durden

Unhappy with its market share in the US real estate market, the largest online retailer in the world and global commercial monopolist, Amazon, announced a deal on Tuesday morning with the largest US residential real estate brokerage company, Realogy, in a strategy designed to boost sales for both.

As CNBC reports, Realogy – whose stock soared 25% – and Amazon will now offer TurnKey, a horizontally and vertically integrated program meant to streamline and optimize the home- and furniture-buying process, by taking potential homebuyers through the Amazon portal and connects them to a Realogy agent. Once they purchase a home, they then get complimentary Amazon Home Services and products worth up to $5,000.

Realogy, which is the largest real estate broker in the US and which owns such brands as Coldwell Banker, Century 21, Sotheby’s International Realty, Corcoran, ERA and Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate, has been facing stiff online competition from newcomers like Compass and Redfin, which rely heavily on high-tech, online platforms. As CNBC’s Diana Olick writes, “partnering with Amazon gives Realogy a platform unlike any other, not to mention access to more buyer data.”

“We’re the market leaders in this industry and we like that position, but you always have to be innovating to stay ahead, you’ve got to be willing to cannibalize yourself, you’ve got to do all the things that a big successful company needs to do to stay on the forefront,” said Realogy CEO Ryan Schneider.

“In a world that is awash with low quality lead generation out there, where you can get real estate leads from millions of online websites, giving an agent and franchisees high-quality leads from a source like Amazon and Realogy together is a real differentiator that’s going to be very powerful for the group.”

The group’s simple strategy for success: Always Be Closing... and then get the buyer to purchase a whole lot of additional stuff as well.

Here’s how it will work:

A potential buyer will go to the TurnKey portal on Amazon and put in information on the type of home they’d like to purchase, the location and price. Amazon then matches them with a Realogy agent. Once the buyer closes on the home, Amazon connects them with services and experts in the area. The buyer not only gets a selection of Amazon Home Services, like painting or hanging a large TV, but they also gain access to smart home products, like a Ring doorbell, to be installed by Amazon professionals. The value of the free products and services can range from $1,000 to $5,000 depending on the purchase price of the home.

“Customers can be overwhelmed when moving, and we’re excited to be working with Realogy to offer homebuyers a simplified way to settle into a new home,” said Pat Bigatel, director of Amazon Home Services. “The Amazon Move-In Benefit will enable homebuyers to adapt the offering to their needs — from help assembling furniture, to assisting with smart home device set up, to a deep clean, and more.”

As CNBC notes, one of the nation’s largest homebuilders, Lennar, previously partnered with Amazon in 2018, introducing smart-home “experience showrooms.” Amazon outfitted Lennar model homes with smart-home technology available for purchase on its site. In something of a show-and-sell strategy, Lennar then offered 90 days of free Amazon home services with the purchase of a home.

“Amazon, Google, Apple, most of the technology-centric companies are starting to think about the home as a centerpiece for the way they think about the future of how their products work and how they interact with them, ” said Stuart Miller, executive chairman of Lennar, in an interview in May 2018. “Home automation is a point of attraction. It’s a proxy for a lot of other things.”

The new TurnKey service will first launch in 15 major metropolitan housing markets, including Seattle, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Atlanta, Dallas, Chicago and Washington, D.C., and will then expand into more markets. However Realogy CEO Ryan Schneider did not suggest that this is a stepping stone to putting Realogy brokerages’ listings on Amazon.

“We’ve never had that conversation with Amazon,” he said.

Of course, when Amazon decides to simply eliminate the middleman, it will do so without holding such a conversation in advance. For now, however, Realogy shares are enjoying the added exposure and the stock has soared over 25% this morning on the Amazon news.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2JKMtKU Tyler Durden

Elon Musk’s futuristic vision for disrupting the world of transportation hit a new milestone yesterday: a Hyperloop test pod hit 288 miles per hour – right before it exploded, according to the Independent.

The incident took place at the 2019 SpaceX Hyperloop pod competition, which is where student teams launch prototype pods through a 1.2 km vacuum tube next to SpaceX headquarters in California. We’re sure this contest definitely isn’t Musk farming out his engineering work to a bunch of his cultists for cheap labor.

The winning team reached the top speed – and then their pod exploded.

The team said on Twitter:

“We are happy to announce that we have reached a top speed of 463 km/h today. Although we lost some parts on the way, we were able to successful finish our run and are proud to be the winners of the 2019 SpaceX Hyperloop Pod Competition.”

When Musk first conceptualized the Hyperloop in 2013, he suggested that vacuum tubes might help move people at more than 500 mph. As the article notes, this latest record is still a long way off from this prediction and is barely on a par with some of the fastest high-speed trains currently in use in China. Except, of course, those trains don’t explode after they reach 250 mph.

The explosion didn’t stop Musk from announcing the new speed record on Twitter and revealing that the 2020 competition would take place in a 10 km vacuum tube “with a curve”.

We wonder if Elon will take the first test ride. 

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Blain’s morning porridge, submitted by Bill Blain of Shard Capital

“Caught in the chaos of the market square, I don’t know what, I don’t know why, but something’s wrong down there… “

As we are about to find out… Jokes aren’t so funny when you find yourself to be the butt. How is a whole country going to feel? I’ve never felt so inclined to punch the TV as when watching an oiky spotty brat boasting to camera in plummy Eton tones about how his vote for Boris will save the UK. Retching noises…

Moving on…

Fascinating article in FT this morning written by BlackRock’s head of global fixed-income, Rick Rieder: ECB can boost growth across Europe by buying stocks. Er, I how do I tell the world’s largest investor that’s about the stupidest idea I’ve heard in a long time? I completely agree Europe needs to urgently address and formulate policy to solve long-term and especially youth unemployment – but not through more distorting Monetary Experimentation by Central Banks. Yeah, ‘cos that’s been a massive success.

The danger of a central bank pumping money into financial markets by buying stocks is simple – money invested in financial assets (stocks and shares) stays in financial assets. That’s the clear lesson we’ve seen over past 10 years. Trillions of QE cash has caused massive inflation in financial assets, but barely grazed the real economy. If you want a full explanation, then buy my book: The Fifth Horseman – How to Destroy the Global Economy, for the full theory.

Even Mr Rieder makes the point the US has created many $1 bln tech unicorns without having to rely to central bank largesse to create and fund them. Why can’t Europe? Clue: it’s not because the ECB isn’t buying stocks!! He is absolutely right that lower for longer interest rates have made financing tech, all kinds of small and medium sized business difficult, and is causing a new banking crisis in Europe – but Central Banks buying stocks will just increase the risks.

Who checks that money goes into building productive capacity, and isn’t funneled back to owners via stock buybacks and dividends? Because that’s how QE had widened income inequality!

Readers of the Morning Porridge will be surprised to know I am very positive on the prospects on Europe. I believe it is going to survive the current Populist plague and solve its current economic problem. And its simple: Fiscal policy. The reason Europe doesn’t work is because the Euro is a monetary construct. The current rules don’t acknowledge any fiscal dimension – that allows counter cyclical government spending to shore up economies, build infrastructure and increasing productivity (towards German levels). That is a key thing desperately required for Europe to work as it could.

It’s a slow process, and difficult when the Germans are not engaged. But Christine Lagarde, Macron, Leyen and Merkel? Talk to each other. Solve it. When Europe agrees a Fiscal Parallel to the Euro, then I am a massive buyer. I have high hopes it may happen soon. Until it does….

(Of course, any head of fixed income must be wondering what they are going to Arb next – when even Euro high yield is in negative territory, maybe its time to switch the whole portfolio into stocks, and then how wonderful if the ECB starts buying!)

Meanwhile, in a Galaxy far far away…

10 days ago I warned Boeing could be the stock that triggers a stock market slump. Tomorrow it reports Q2 earnings, and everyone is braced for lower numbers – around 47% down from last year. Its already said its $4.9 bln charge relating to the 737 Max will lower Q2 by $5.6bln.

Yesterday Fitch put Boeing’s credit rating on Downgrade watch. Their reasoning covered many of the points I made last week about its fundamental weakness: the increased regulatory oversight and uncertainty around getting the 737 Max approved to re-enter passenger service, the logistical challenge of getting the planes back in the air, and the likelihood the plane maker will have to offer airlines costly concessions to use/buy/take delivery of the B-737 Max.  They also cite the damage done to Boeing’s “reputation and brand”. I’d add cash flow drain from unpaid for planes!

What Fitch didn’t note is the problems at Boeing are long term managerial and behavioural issues – and the plane maker is doing precious little that’s visible to address these. How many Boeing execs have admitted it was their responsibility the planes were delivered with no clear warnings about the failing stall prevention system, the flight manuals were skinny on detail, or that the new engine position made it inherently unstable? Who got the lash-up design, and lack of clarity past the Federal Aviation Authority? 

Over the past decade and longer its operating mode has been tight. Saving money by paying Indian software engineers $9 an hour was just the tip of the iceberg. A history of using cheap and second hand spare parts is being uncovered. Passing off the B-737 Max as just an upgrade requiring one hour of iPad crew training to make it cheaper for airlines was another scam to help sell units. A history of poor quality, badly built planes is becoming increasingly apparent – especially from its Carolinas plant. Hammers left in the void spaces of military tankers beggars belief. Perhaps the biggest issue was how it effectively captured the Federal Aviation Authority and self-regulated itself for years.

Nor did the rating agency talk about the future – how Boeing reinvents itself from here. How does it resolve its current issues, and relaunch itself as the premier plane maker? How does it introduce a new product range – the costs and problems when it launched the B-787 Dreamliner were huge! How does it ensure its next leading launch, an upgrade of the now venerable B-777 avoid crisis and gets a clear regulatory stamp? Where do they get the money to develop new aircraft?

Just thinking out loud, but the original B-737 flew 60 years after the Wright Brothers. We should really have moved on since 1963? What does the future look like? 

What’s happening at Boeing now is Hubris – excessive arrogance in defiance of the odds. After nearly 35 years in the credit markets I’ve seen it all before. No two companies are alike – but there are lessons in watching mighty companies tumble and fall. “Look upon my works ye mighty and despair” brings back the memories of trips to win GECC mandates – then it was a trip AAA issuer.  We were treated as lepers by the company treasury team. Now its struggling to retain an investment grade rating with a miserable business.

Firms can struggle on for years or they die slow and hard. GE and Deutsche Bank are examples of the latter. Bear and Lehman went relatively fast. I wonder what the world is going to look like when/if interest rates ever normalise and literally thousands of Zombie overlevered companies look set to tumble and fall? Boeing is unlikely to go bust or default – its simply too big, too important, and had too good a product suite for that to happen. But it does need to change, and that could prove very costly.

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