There are times when you think: now things must be easy to comprehend, but as it turns out, they are still not. Let me try once more. See, I was thinking it must have become much easier to gauge the impact in the US of COVID19 when I published the graph below from TheNewAtlantis.com a few days ago. That the stories about seasonal flu etc. at least should be dead and buried, because, well, just look at the graph.
No such “luck”. That warped comparison keeps on rearing its head. The graph is plenty clear about it, however. In a period of about 3 weeks, COVID19 obliterated all other causes of death far behind.
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I have followed the progress of the virus since early January, so plenty of graphs are available. Below are those from Worldometer and SCMP, starting February 20.
On February 2, the US had 5 cases and zero deaths. Then we get to the graphs.
On February 20, there were 75,750 global cases, 74,500 of which were in China. There were 2,130 deaths, of which just maybe 10 were outside China.
The US had fewer than 15 cases and zero deaths.
One month later, things had changed quite dramatically, or so it seemed.
On March 20, there were 250,000 global cases and over 10,000 deaths. Cases had tripled, deaths had almost quintupled. Italy had overtaken China in most fatalities, from zero a month earlier.
The US had emerged “on the forefront”. It now had 10,400 cases and 150 deaths. Yes, that is just one month ago, 32 days to be exact.
Today, on April 21 2020, you would hardly recognize the situation as it was on February 20 or March 20.
There are now over 2,500,000 cases and over 172,000 deaths.
The US has become the frontrunner, and by a very large margin. It has over 800,000 cases and over 43,000 deaths.
From those 10,400 cases and 150 deaths 32 days ago.
Moreover, of those 43,000 deaths, almost half, 20,000, died in just the past 7 days.
And it’s at this point that people want to call the peak.
Investor John Hussman developed a model from early February which he’s been updating ever since. His model followed (or actually, predicted) actual numbers quite well:
Apr 15 (637,716 cases, 30,826 deaths): Assuming sustained containment efforts, the “optimistic” projection (my adaptive model) suggests that U.S. daily new cases may have peaked. This does NOT mean these efforts can now be abandoned. Most U.S. fatalities are still ahead, and we still lack capacity to test/track/trace.
But 5 days ago, John started getting worried:
Apr 16 (667,801, 32,917): This isn’t good. U.S. fatalities just jumped off book. We shouldn’t see 31,000 yet.
Apr 18 (735,076, 38,903): So much for the optimistic scenario. We’re way off book. I had hoped this was just a one-time adjustment. Understand this:
PEAK daily new cases in a containment scenario is also PEAK infectivity if containment is abandoned at that moment.
I’ve long said that people are social animals, and you cannot -and shouldn’t- keep them apart for too long. But at the same time, containment measures in case of epidemics go back a very long way in history. And it’s very well for people to develop models that appear to show that the virus will do whatever it can until it no longer does, and it will soon disappear even if we didn’t do anything to prevent it from spreading.
But those are still just models, just like the one John Hussman developed. And until they are proven, which takes time, the actual numbers we have now speak loudly. Globally, we went from 250,000 to 2,500,000 cases in one month, and from 10,000 fatalities to 172.000. In the US in that same month we went from 10,400 cases to over 800,000 and from 150 deaths to 43,000.
“PEAK daily new cases in a containment scenario is also PEAK infectivity if containment is abandoned at that moment”, says Hussman. Of course everybody wants their freedom back. But at what price? If you don’t, because you can’t, know what the price will be, are you still willing to pay that price?
What I mean is, everyone’s trying to call a peak, but for most that’s merely because they want there to be a peak. The numbers don’t really say that; they may seem to do, but that’s just over 1,2 or 3 days at best. While half of all US fatalities have been over the past 7 days.
If the peak has really already occurred, we will not know it until about 10-14 days from now. So the only thing we can do is to wait that long.
Perhaps it would be a good idea to listen to what those have to say who are so enthusiastically labeled “heroes” all over the globe, the doctors, nurses and other frontline caretakers.
If they are indeed your heroes, and that’s not just some empty phrase, listen to what they have to say about the pressure on them, on the system they work in, on the numbers of cases and deaths they see themselves confronted with.
But also listen when they say things you may not like to hear. If anybody deserves a relaxation of a lockdown, and of pressure overall, surely it must be them, before you.
Guess it’s too much to ask that perhaps you may have learned some lessons lately, about things that you don’t need to do but that you always did. Or to ask you if you heard the birds singing louder in the bluer skies this morning.
Just out of curiosity: Did you know that Anne Frank spent 2 whole years locked down behind a wall?
“Eat A Bag Of Dicks”: De Blasio’s COVID-19-Lockdown Snitch-Line Flooded With Penis Pics And Memes
New Yorkers didn’t seem to take too kindly to Mayor Bill de Blasio asking them to snitch on each other.
Back on April 18, the mayor put out this video on social media commending New Yorkers, before asking them to snitch on each other if they see other New Yorkers violating social distancing rules.
In what we’d guess was more of a bi-partisan effort than some Democrats would like to admit, the city seems to have told de Blasio exactly what they think of his program, texting the NYC snitch-line photos of penises, middle fingers and memes, instead of using it to snitch on their fellow citygoer.
In addition, people have texted the snitch-line with photos of the mayor dropping the Staten Island groundhog and news coverage of him going to the gym, according to the NY Post.
“We will fight this tyrannical overreach!” one person texted to the line. Another posted a photo of Hitler and said:
“TO THOSE TURNING IN YOUR NEIGHBORS AND LOCAL BUSINESSES — YOU DID THE REICH THING.”
“Start flooding their reporting text numbers with this pics!” the person continued.
One person sent a bowl of penis-shaped candies with the banner “Eat A Bag of D*cks”. A source at the NYPD says that actual dick pics have also been texted to the line.
Another person called in and said that de Blasio was seen having oral sex with someone “in an alleyway behind a 7-11”.
“He looked at me…and coofed in my direction,” the anonymous tipster said.
The service had to be shut down temporarily as a result of the chaos.
SouthFront offers a scientific-based survey providing an in-depth look at the real death toll statistics and the spread of SARS-COV-2.
1. The research issued by the Bonn University Hospital
The research issued by the Bonn University Hospital and made by the group of scientists including Prof. Dr. Hendrik Streeck (Institute of Virology), Prof. Dr. Gunther Hartmann (Institute for Clinical Chemistry and Clinical Pharmacology, Spokesman for the Cluster of Excellence ImmunoSensation2), Prof. Dr. Martin Exner (Institute for Hygiene and Public Health), Prof. Dr. Matthias Schmid (Institute for Medical Biometry, Computer Science and Epidemiology).
In the framework of the research, all residents of Germany’s Gangelt were tested on the existence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and antibodies to SARS-CoV-2.
Gangelt is one of the most COVID-19-affected German municipalities. It is believed that the outbreak was caused by the carnival held on February 15, 2020. After the event, several people tested positive for SARS-CoV-2.
Preliminary result: the existing immunity was determined at about 14% (IgG against SARS-CoV2, method specificity>, 99%). About 2% of people had current SARS-CoV-2 infection detected by the method of polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The overal infection rate (the presence of a current infection or antibody in the body) was about 15%. The mortality (mortality rate), based on the total number of infected people in the Gangelt community, is approximately 0.37% based on the preliminary data of this study. The mortality rate based on the total population in the Gangelt is currently 0.06%.
2. A new Epidemiological bulletin from German Robert Koch Institute
“in general, it is true that not all infected people have symptoms, not all who has symptoms go to a doctor’s office, not all who go to the doctor are tested and not all who test positive are recorded in a survey system. In addition, a certain amount of time passes between all these individual steps, so that no data collection system, however good, can make a statement about the current infection process without additional assumptions and calculations.”
Meanwhile, April 18 Daily Situation Report of the Robert Koch Institute shows that 86% of deaths, but only 18% of all cases, occurred in persons aged 70 years or older. The median age was 82 years. Pneumonia was reported in 2,764 cases (3%). COVID-19 related outbreaks continue to be reported in nursing homes and hospitals. In some of these outbreaks, the number of deaths is relatively high. The current estimate is R= 0.8 (95% confidence interval: 0.7-1.0).
3. On 13 April, the German National Academy of Sciences, Leopoldina, published its third ad hoc statement on the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany (the group of 26 Prof. Doctors)
The statement, which supplements its two predecessors, describes strategies for a stepwise lifting or modification of measures against the pandemic, taking into account psychological, social, legal, pedagogic and economic aspects. The document recommends in particular the re-opening of classroom primary and lower-level secondary education as soon as feasible, giving priority to the former, with observation of hygiene and physical distancing measures.
Click to see the full-size image
Click to see the full-size image
The National Academy of Sciences Leopoldina takes a stand with psychological, social, the legal, educational and economic aspects of the pandemic, following key recommendations:
Optimizing the basis for decision-making: The data collection, which has so far been largely symptom-based, leads to a distorted perception of the infection process. It is therefore important to collect the infection and substantially improve the immunity status of the population, in particular through representative and regional survey of infection and immunity status.
Enable a differentiated assessment of the risks both for social and individual dealings with the corona pandemic, contextual classification of the available data is important. Data to serious illnesses and deaths must be compared to those of other illnesses and related to the expected risk of death in individual age groups. A realistic one. Presentation of the individual risk must be clearly illustrated. This also applies to systemic risks such as overloading the health system and negative consequences for the economy and society.
To cushion psychological and social impacts: measures taken for implementation intrinsic motivation based on self-protection and solidarity is more important than the threats of sanctions. Providing a realistic schedule and a clear package of measures for gradual normalization increases the controllability and predictability for everyone. This helps to minimize negative psychological the physical andeffects of the current stress. Firs of all, aid and support should be provided for high-risk groups, such as children, who are particularly affected by the consequences of current restrictions in difficult family situations or people who are exposed to domestic violence must be provided become.
There are more another recommendations in the third ad hoc statement of the German National Academy of Sciences that now are being implemented by German leadership.
4. New research from the United States
Group of authors from Stanford University, Stanford University School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Health Education is Power, Inc., The Compliance Resource Group, Inc., Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Stanford University School of Medicine, Bogan Associates, 8 ARL BioPharma, Inc., Sports Medicine Research and Testing Laboratory, Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Stanford University School of Medicine, Department of Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine measured the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County and made some conclusions.
The data received and conclusions of the US team are well corresponding with the research of German Bonn University Hospital taking into account that the German research came out on April 9, and the American one on April 14, with the reasonable assumption that the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the German city of Gangelt began at least two week earlier (February 15, 2020) than in the American Santa Clara.
The US researchers estimated that under the three scenarios for test performance characteristics, the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%). These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases. Conclusions. The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections.
5. More data from the United States
Between March 22 and April 4, 2020, a total of 215 pregnant women delivered infants at the New York–Presbyterian Allen Hospital and Columbia University Irving Medical Center. All the women were screened on admission for symptoms of Covid-19. Four women (1.9%) had fever or other symptoms of Covid-19 on admission, and all 4 women tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 (Figure 1). Of the 211 women without symptoms, all were afebrile on admission. Nasopharyngeal swabs were obtained from 210 of the 211 women (99.5%) who did not have symptoms of Covid-19; of these women, 29 (13.7%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2. Thus, 29 of the 33 patients who were positive for SARS-CoV-2 at admission (87.9%) had no symptoms of Covid-19 at presentation.
Our use of universal SARS-CoV-2 testing in all pregnant patients presenting for delivery revealed that at this point in the pandemic in New York City, most of the patients who were positive for SARS-CoV-2 at delivery were asymptomatic, and more than one of eight asymptomatic patients who were admitted to the labor and delivery unit were positive for SARS-CoV-2. Although this prevalence has limited generalizability to geographic regions with lower rates of infection, it underscores the risk of Covid-19 among asymptomatic obstetrical patients. Moreover, the true prevalence of infection may be underreported because of false negative results of tests to detect SARS-CoV-2.
6. Hypothesis and justification from a Professor of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology at theMilan State University, Italy
The real number of COVID-19 cases in the country could be 5,000,0000 (compared to the 119,827 confirmed ones) according to a study which polled people with symptoms who have not been tested, and up to 10,000,000 or even 20,0000,000 after taking into account asymptomatic cases, according to Carlo La Vecchia, a Professor of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology at theMilan State University.
This number would still be insufficient to reach herd immunity, which would require 2/3 of the population (about 40,000,000 people in Italy) having contracted the virus.
The number of deaths could also be underestimated by 3/4 (in Italy as well as in other countries) [source], meaning that the real number of deaths in Italy could be around 60,000.
If these estimates were true, the mortality rate from COVID-19 would be much lower (around 25 times less) than the case fatality rate based solely on laboratory-confirmed cases and deaths, since it would be underestimating cases (the denominator) by a factor of about 1/100 and deaths by a factor of 1/4.
7. SARS-CoV-2 mortality in Italy
As for now, it is a well-known publicly recognized fact that Italy labels anyone who died with a confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, regardless of the real causes of death, as the victim of the pandemic. At the same time, the objective fact is the increase of the overall mortality in Italy. According to Istat (Istituto nazionale di statistica), there is a general increase in mortality from all causes ⩾20% from March 1 to April 4, 2020 compared with the average for the same period in 2015-2019. Bergamo is at the top in the growth of mortality among municipalities, + 382.8% of deaths.
However, the mortality grew not only and not so much from the causes associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection.
A few examples:
Albino town: from February 23 to March 27, 2019 – 24 people died; from February 23 to March 27, 2020 – 145 people (SARS-CoV-2 causes – 30 dead).
Skandzoroshyate town: from January to March 2019 – 45 deaths; from January to March 2020 – 135 (SARS-CoV-2 – 20 dead).
San Pellegrino Terme town: March 2019 – 2 deaths, March 2020 – 45 (SARS-CoV-2 – 11 dead).
These numbers could be explained by the lack of SARS-CoV-2 tests in the specified period.
At the same time, the mortality from other diseases increased significantly in the comparative period of April 1-4, 2020 compared to April 1-4, 2019. The lack of transparence of the Italian system also should be noted. For example, on April 17, Istat said that at that moment it was impossible to draw any conclusions about the increase of the mortality in Italy in general (as well as in regions and provinces) from the data obtained by Istat for the first four months of 2020 and compare it with the same period in 2019. These graphs and tables show statistics:
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8. SARS-CoV-2 mortality in Spain
Spanish Minister of Health Salvador Illa stated that every dead person, that tested positively to SARS-CoV-2, is considered as a SARS-CoV-2 death.
The mathematical model employed by the University of Carlos III in Madrid (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, UC3M) demonstrates that in the last decade in Spain, an average of 1,150 people die from all causes every day in March. According to the records of acts of civil status, from March 16 (the day quarantine began), the number of daily deaths from all causes began to increase, sometimes reaching 1,400 per day. From March 17 to March 30, 21,243 deaths were recorded in Spain. This is 5,398 more than the prediction based on the extrapolation of data from previous years. The forecasted number for the same period is 15,844 – 34.1% less. At the same time, the total number of deaths from whom SARS-CoV-2 during the period from March 17 to March 30, 2020 was 7,591 people. This is a consequence of the general recognition of SARS-CoV-2 as the cause of deaths regardless of the actual situation. In any case, there is no exponential growth of the overall mortality in Spain or Italy.
In this survey, we demonstrated the researches and approaches of about 100 eminent scientists from around the world. In general, they agree that the current statistical data does not reflect the actual state of affairs, and the publicly distributed media estimates of the mortality rate are at least incorrect, and do not correspond to the actual picture.
The actual number of people with SARS-CoV-2 infection or people that already passed through COVID-19 early-stage or without symptoms is several dozen times higher than the public numbers show.
This is primarily due to the approaches and scope of testing. The public numbers have little to do with science. This is, to a greater extent, either media or politically motivated data. You should also consider the factor of a special picture of the course of the disease, which affects medical statistics (RKI Epidemiological bulletins).
Accordingly, the real mortality rate from SARS-CoV-2 is 25-60 times less than the figures presented to us by MSM and a number of governments.
The number of people with SARS-CoV-2 virus, but without the COVID-19 disease or with a mild form of the disease, according to various estimates, ranges from 85% to 95%. This group, as a rule, does not fall into official statistics, as it is not tested, not hospitalized, and does not seek medical help.
The negative consequences for life and health of people from ill-conceived social measures can at times surpass the threat posed by SARS-CoV-2. There has been a significant increase in the mortality from diseases unrelated to SARS-CoV-2 already.
Countries, whose leadership works closely with scientists, consistently and quickly responds to changes in the situation and the emergence of new data, will receive a huge advantage in the post-COVID-19 world.
The current actions of politicians in a number of countries are difficult to explain with anything other than incompetence or deliberate actions to achieve their personal/clan political ambitions or promote interests of external actors.
China State TV Host: COVID-19 Came From Lab Leak… In United States
A TV presenter for Chinese state television claims that COVID-19 came from the United States – either escaping from a US lab, or having been brought into China during the Military World Games in Wuhan last October, reports the UK’s Metro.
The anchor, who goes by “Ms V” on the CGTN show “China View,” rattled off several theories which she said shows “it is clear that the virus in China was transmitted from abroad,” (and not from the level 4 biolab in the same town which was screwing around with bat coronavirus, and where “patient zero” reportedly disappeared after falling ill).
Ms V told the camera: ‘The outbreak may be earlier than expected. In September 2019, some Japanese were infected with the new coronavirus after returning from Hawaii, though they had not visited China before.
‘This happened two months before the beginning of the outbreak in China. Shortly after, the CDC shut down the facilities – after claiming that the Fort Detrick Biological Weapons Laboratory had failed to fully prevent the loss of pathogens.
‘Now, all the data related to this lab has disappeared on the internet. The virologist reported he had carefully researched the cases, as well as his Japanese colleague, and they got the same conclusion.
‘It is expected that the new coronavirus has started outbreaks in the United States for a while, and its symptoms were like symptoms of other diseases, so it was easy to hide the truth.’ –Metro
A video of the Arabic-speaking host spreading the rumors during an Arabic-language broadcast has received millions of views, and comes as Washington and Beijing have begun to lock horns over the origins of the virus. According to a Fox News report, the virus escaped from the Wuhan Institute of Virology – a theory we posited in January, which was called a ‘conspiracy theory’ by mainstream media.
Shortly before the Fox News report, the Washington Post reported that US State Department cables warned of safety issues at the Wuhan BSL-4 biolab.
Metro notes that the Fort Detrick – home to the Department of Defense’s top biological defense research laboratory known as USAMRIID – was partially closed in July by the CDC due to problems with the disposal of dangerous materials, and was fully reopened in April.
Ms V then cited a Japanese broadcast in which a presenter claimed that the pandemic may have originated after the US participated in the Military Olympic Games in Wuhan which was attended by 109 countries.
Chinese government spokesperson Zhao Lijian tweeted this story in March suggesting ‘it might be the US army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan,’ a claim that the Pentagon called ‘false and absurd.’
Half in jest a few years ago, in an article, I suggested that taxation be stopped altogether. With so many people no longer concerned about deficit spending the idea now seems more viable. With so many people thinking that deficit government spending helps drive the economy at some point our leaders and those across the globe might want to give us taxpayers a break. Why not stop taxation entirely?
Just End It! Such a policy would go a long way to diminish the divide polarizing our nation.
I do not know anyone who likes to pay taxes or go through hours and hours of record-keeping and filling out forms in order to comply with our complex tax system. According to the Tax Foundation,Americans spent more than 8.9 billion hours complying with IRS tax filing requirements in 2016. All in all, tax compliance cost the U.S. economy $409 billion during those 12 months. As you know, things have not gotten any easier since that time. With the soaring deficits flowing out of Washington and policies that show no respect for the money hard-working Americans pay into the system lets do this!
Over the years Washington and governments in many countries have shown little in the way of financial restraint. If deficits don’t matter it seems logical that spreading the wealth around by something other than policies focused on redistribution through such a complicated system has merit. Both economists and politicians have considered many over the top solutions to resolve the problem of slow economic growth in a global economy mired in debt. In the past, cutting taxes has been a favorite method to spur consumer spending and pump up growth. The suggestion of placing taxation in the dustbin of history is merely an extension of this idea.
No Taxation Means More Money For Everyone!
If indeed cutting the ties binding us to responsible budgets is the solution to our economic woes and holds the key to prosperity being timid may not have served us well. Forget all the previously consideredoutlandish ideas, such as a war on cash, forgiving debt through a debt jubilee, giving everyone a guaranteed income, and even injecting money into the economic system by dropping it from a helicopter. Ending taxation in many ways can be seen as having the same effect of economic stimulation.
This is only one in a series of easy plans to jump-start the economy, the next part when I get around to writing it will be titled, “Just Print More Money.” Both plans constitute a better alternative than going to war to kill off excess labor while ramping up production of self-exploding equipment or building bridges to nowhere. If history is any indication, wealth and jobs flow into any country that has low tax rates so why not take it to the next level. While you could demand that I parade a slew of complex figures and calculations before you proving all this will work, I simply ask you to please show me the same kind of trust we give to those leading us from Washington.
My proposal could be passed in a bipartisan way and should make everyone happy. It should please both Trump voters who claim enough is enough and want to pay way less in taxes as well as those on the far left who can’t get enough free goodies. By shattering the link between taxation and spending we can be far more generous. So I say, eat your heart out Paul Krugman, and you too Ben Bernanke. With all the time both of you have spent pondering the economy in the ivory halls of academia, you have come close but it isI who have proposed the next step in our financial evolution. Ending all taxation of any kind will not render the laws of economics moot or move us much further into the false state of modern voodoo economics than we have already traveled and it is guaranteed to work until it no longer does.
More crude chaos overnight (with AsiaPac oil ETFs trading at “crazy premiums” and Asian oil futures tumbling) has been over-ruled this morning as long-squeezes have morphed into a short-squeeze after Trump ordered the US Navy to “shoot down and destroy any and all Iranian gunboats if they harass our ships at sea”, sending June WTI soaring 40% to $16 before fading modestly into the official inventory data from DOE.
“There’s no way you can predict [it] right now,” Michael Cuggino, portfolio manager at Pacific Heights Asset Management LLC, said on Bloomberg TV.
“It’s virtually impossible until we have more visibility with respect to how to world comes out of the coronavirus on the other side.”
Still, we suspect inventories will be a catalyst for the next leg in these chaotic paper oil markets…
API
Crude +13.226mm (+13.8mm exp)
Cushing +4.913mm (+14mm exp)
Gasoline +3.435mm (+4.4mm exp)
Distillates +7.369mm (+3.9mm exp)
DOE
Crude +15.022mm (+13.8mm exp)
Cushing +4.776mm (+14mm exp)
Gasoline +1.017mm (+4.4mm exp)
Distillates +7.8765mm (+3.9mm exp)
This is the 13th weekly rise in crude inventories…
Source: Bloomberg
Crude stocks soared to their highest since May 2017 (this is the highest level of crude inventory for this time of year ever aside from 2017)…
Source: Bloomberg
Bloomberg Intelligence energy analyst Fernando Valle warns that the roll of WTI contracts showed that all remaining storage at Cushing is booked, even if not yet full… but demand has collapsed…
Source: Bloomberg
Refineries slowed to 67% of utilization last in the previous week, the lowest since 2008.
As Bloomberg Intelligence senior energy analyst Vince Piazza notes, “U.S. crude storage capacity has about three months to go before it’s filled, as demand falls faster than production is declining.”
Following a collapse in US oil rig counts, US oil production is fading back to its lowest since June 2019…
Source: Bloomberg
The possibility of negative prices has sent a shockwave through the ETF industry. Should the price of the futures they hold fall below zero, ETFs could go “lights out”, Charlie McElligott, a cross-asset macro strategist at Nomura Securities, warned on Tuesday, but June WTI lifted very modestly after the inventory print.
Pierre Andurand, a hedge fund manager who has successfully bet on lower oil prices in recent months, warned that oil ETF investors faced the possibility of being “completely wiped out.”
“Anything that invests in the front two months WTI is a recipe for disaster,” he told Bloomberg TV.
In case you wondered who was/is buying all this oil… it’s easy – Millennial bagholders…
“It is possible that the price of June 2020 contracts will drop to zero or a negative value,” Samsung Asset Management said in its filing. “In the worst-case scenario, the Net Asset Value of the Sub-Fund may drop to zero and investors may suffer a total loss of their investments in the Sub-Fund.
The Chinese government has released video it says was shot inside the Wuhan Institute of Virology, in an attempt to counter claims, investigations, and evidence that the coronavirus leaked from the bio-lab.
According to reports, the US government is now ‘near certain’ that the lab was the origin of the virus, and several lawsuits have already been filed stating exactly this.
The video, released by Chinese state media, is said to be from February, and shows scientists in full personal protective equipment working within the lab. An emphasis is placed on the safety measures in place at the lab.
Watch:
In the video, scientist Zhang Huajun demonstrates how workers put on hazmat suits and pass thorough five hermetically sealed chambers before entering the main part of the facility.
Zhang also claims that the lab was designed to prevent leaks by allowing air to only flow inside, and not back out again.
This past weekend, the lab’s deputy director claimed that “There’s no way this virus came from us.”
“They have no evidence or knowledge. This is entirely based on speculation,”Yuan Zhiming told state media, adding that “Part of the purpose is to confuse people, to interfere with our entire epidemic activities or our scientific activities.”
Meanwhile, the World Health Organisation is once again in lockstep with the Chinese denials, insisting that the virus “is not manipulated or constructed in a lab,” and repeating the Chinese government’s talking point that “The Wuhan Institute of Virology has dismissed rumors both that it synthesized the virus or allowed it to escape.”
The new lab video is thought to be a propaganda effort to counter photographs that previously appeared showing broken freezer seals inside the lab where coronavirus samples were being stored:
Rabobank: It Is Understandable Why Some Are Wondering When We Get Hyper-inflation And Currency Collapse
Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank
With so much liquidity being thrown into so many markets by so many so fast, it is perhaps understandable that some are wondering when we get inflation, hyper-inflation, and/or currency collapse. However, given we are riddled with World War Two analogies at the moment, allow me to do two Churchill impressions: “Never was so much owed by so many to so few” – and “Never was so much owned by so few.” (Yes, one does not need to read Piketty to know that wealth and income inequality under the Pharaohs was even more unfair than it has been trending under every US President since Nixon, but you hopefully get the point.)
In short, global debt levels are at records and rising – which is where some see the inflation coming from; and yet wealth and income inequality are also at staggering levels – and rising as mind-blowing liquidity flows not into many pockets but into relatively few.
For all of the staggering scale of fiscal stimulus packages–20% of GDP in Japan, 15% and rising in the UK, and who even knows in the US?–ask yourself this: is the ordinary working family feeling better or worse off right now? Unemployment is soaring but you are lucky enough to get furloughed with 80% pay – isn’t that a 20% pay cut? And is a pay-rise now waiting for you in 2021? And good luck if you own a small business as most of most of the fiscal packages we see are going out in loan support to larger firms. Yet if you give USD1m to a private firm whose revenue has collapsed by USD1m, is this actually stimulus at all? It leaves you at an expensive stand-still – and also means more debt to carry post virus, dragging growth lower.
If that kind of “too much to too few” stimulus worked properly then QE would have worked and we would already be in wonderful hyperinflation: is there really *more* money flowing around than before in *real* economy?
Yes, as we have stressed before, the world is changing very rapidly from the pre-COVID status quo. Taboos against state spending and state aid are collapsing the same way Churchill’s public support did when he won World War Two but then lost in a landslide election favouring socialism, free healthcare, and nationalised industry. Yet the economic damage being wrought by this virus still lies ahead of us long before we suddenly arrive in a promised land of recovery, inflation, and bolshie workers. We are, at worst, at the Dunkirk stage of the war against COVID-19, where a lucky escape means the hard fighting is still ahead of us; or, more optimistically, we are just after the Battle of Stalingrad, where the war’s momentum has decisively shifted but massive pain still lies ahead.
A report in the South China Morning Post today quotes Chinese scientists as saying that they believe the virus has mutated rapidly, and that this explains the apparent discrepancy in the severity of the symptoms and the mortality rates being seen around the world: in short, the European and New York versions may be a different, more lethal strain than those on the US West Coast and in some other countries. If so, what does that imply for lockdown lifting – or for a workable vaccine?
Meanwhile the UK government, for just one example, still can’t give find it within its collective intelligence to tell people to wear masks, despite clear evidence that if both sides in an interaction wear a mask, the potential infection rate plummets; and the same government still can’t manage to source enough masks (or gowns) from anywhere in the world for key health workers – the Health Secretary last night revealing the brilliant innovation of now “talking to manufacturers directly and not middle-men”.
Let’s actually look at “markets”, parts of which can still send signals worth listening to. What is oil saying about where we are along the World-War-Two-to-post-World-War-Two-social-nirvana spectrum? As I type, Brent Crude for June delivery was trading down 16% on the day at a 21-year low while the June WTI contract was -9% after losing half its value on Tuesday – but at least it isn’t massively negative yet. This is even despite President Trump tweeting: “We will never let the great U.S. Oil & Gas Industry down. I have instructed the Secretary of Energy and Secretary of the Treasury to formulate a plan which will make funds available so that these very important companies and jobs will be secured long into the future!” All very Churchillian – but in a 1942 not a 1945 kind of way.
Likewise, 10-year US Treasuries, which until we get full Fed yield curve control are still a valuable indicator, are trading at 0.55%, down 2bp, and hovering around record lows. They don’t smell socialism in the air.
Yet as for emerging markets, even despite low US bond yields all we see is more pain. Mexico surprised with an emergency 50bp cut yesterday taking rates down to 6% and has promised additional liquidity measures. Only another 575bp to go to catch up to where economic reality is for the US, one might say. Indeed, many EM appear to be happily cutting away as inflation disappears – which obviously means much, much more downside for their currencies, even from depleted levels. Turkey is the next to do so today, most likely, where the consensus is a 50bp cut to 9.25%. So only 900bp left to go to catch up to the US, one might say. In turn, this naturally means an even stronger USD – and so lower commodity prices, and weaker EM economies, which are already running to the IMF in record numbers, and lower global growth, and lower global inflation.
Yes, folks, at some point we will all be celebrating in Times Square. It will happen. At some point afterwards the many will then be wanting to ensure that capital does not only flow to the too few – and the reckoning will be awesome for markets to behold.
But for now at least all oil and Treasuries can offer us is blood, sweat, and tears – and not enough protective equipment to deal with them.
Viral Video Arrest Of Idaho Mom At Neighborhood Playground Sparks Backlash
Mass anti-lockdown protests like those recently seen in state capitals of Michigan and Pennsylvania have come to Idaho, after a mother was filmed being arrested by police for allowing her children to play at a playground closed by coronavirus ‘stay at home’ orders.
The incident happened at the city of Meridian, which like most other places across the nation closed down its public parks and recreational facilities for use. It immediately sparked a protest of about 100 people in front of Meridian City Hall
40-year old Sara Brady had reportedly been at the playground with a small group of others as part of a ‘playdate protest’ against the park closure, which they slammed as local government overreach against freedoms of people in the community.
Police said they asked Brady to leave multiple times, while she’s seen in the now viral video asking why the officers don’t have masks on.
“Arrest me for being difficult. Do it! Record it!,” she was heard saying.
Police say that when they showed up they saw that caution tape and metal signs had been removed, and they “observed numerous individuals gathered on the closed playground area.”
“Meridian officers made several attempts to help Brady adhere to the rules,” police said in a statement. “She was non-compliant and forced officers to place her under arrest to resolve the issue. She was arrested for trespassing.”
A follow-up video with her in handcuffs being escorted out of the park further showed moms holding babies attempting to block the officers’ paths. “Move out of my way,” one officer tells a mother with her infant.
A woman was heard saying as Brady was taken out of the park area: “Her kids are here! Her kids are here? What is going to happen? Who’s got her kids?”
The city and county reportedly posted that all playground structures were “closed” last month over concerns that coronavirus can live on plastic and other surfaces up to two or three days.
CBS affiliate KBOI-TV reported that Brady was charged by police with one count of misdemeanor trespassing.
This is likely to spark further backlash from locals who don’t want to adhere to ‘closure’ orders in public park spaces, given its their tax dollars that pay for such things as playground structures.
In the hours after Brady’s arrest, local news affiliates reported a sizable protest in front of Meridian city hall.
Idaho is an example of a state which hasn’t witnessed a significant outbreak, with over 1,766 COVID-19 cases as of Wednesday, including 48 deaths, out of a population of approaching two million people.
Many Americans in the central and southern states have begun to question whether the fate of their states and local communities should be dictated by the more dire circumstances of large cities on the East and West coasts – where case numbers have been soaring.
Equities are pointing higher, as are emerging markets, after a rocky start in Asia. I’m not entirely sure what that’s supposed to mean. Bond yields are marginally higher. One thing we’ve been, largely, but not totally, spared from is having to hear it’s risk on. Higher prices are risky, to be sure, and what the authorities want, but there is a decided lack of animal spirits.
That howling you are hearing should be understood for what it is. We’ve been buying because that is what we’ve been told to do.
Bond deals are plenty and, mostly, going well. As long as issuers are willing to swallow some concessions that stand out noticeably on the screens. Spain, among others, sold bonds this morning to record-setting demand. Happy days. It took a back-up in yields of some 12 basis points to garner that sizable interest before things promptly rallied. The game is afoot.
It’s not difficult to be in a crabby mood, even with prices higher. It seems we are in a holding pattern and living hand-to-mouth on continuing injections of government stimulus. The Senate sent another relief bill to the House last night. They should have. It’s supporting things. It is expected to be passed on Thursday. Let’s hope it is used wisely without unfortunate stories about those who don’t need it taking a share. Presumably this is helping support S&P 500 future prices. But it doesn’t feel particularly happy. Perhaps, on Friday, we can all go to Georgia, where they are planning on reopening tattoo parlors and get some new ink to cheer ourselves up. They’ll tell us that it was the right thing to do because tourism seems to be increasing.
Meanwhile, and more intriguing, we are all waiting to see what kind of rescue plan Europe will agree on tomorrow. The stakes are high. It’s rather extraordinary that, at this late date, we still don’t know what will come out of the teleconference. Europe rarely has these things tied up nicely before the principals get together. Which is why a great laugh-out-loud moment came yesterday when ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot, from northern state Netherlands, said, “Speculating about ECB exit strategy is too early.”
I’ll take an educated guess on what is likely to end up happening, however. They will be more generous than they have ever been before. Demand fewer conditions. Presumably they have learned from past blunders. But avoid mutualized debt obligations. That will come some day, just not Thursday. Get acceptance from the Italians. And that will be the peace. Markets should take that as a win. And it could be another positive market event. The ECB can put the icing on the cake and make it clear that the capital key, and other restrictions have, under the circumstances, lots of wiggle room. Knot also said that during the crisis, the ECB should be “open minded.” That was unlikely to have been a throw-away line.
The euro is sitting on about 100 pips of a support zone, so it’s worth watching. And both the Dollar and Bloomberg currency indexes are at interesting pivots so, depending on what happens, they could signal nice short-, even medium-, term trade opportunities. The Italian FTSE MIB Index is just below resistance on both a moving average and retracement basis. It has room to move, as John Mayall might have said.
It’s easy to have sympathy for those who look at markets with a jaundiced eye. With all this support flooding in, that trade may need to wait until things get better.
