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From a young age, many of us were taught that sharing is caring. In fact, as Ashley Viens of Visual Capitalist notes,  many countries have also followed this simple principle, in the interest of growth and prosperity, when doing business on a global scale.

Today’s infographic from HowMuch.net charts the top imports and exports between the U.S. and China, pulled from the Observatory of Economic Complexity’s (OEC) global market data for 2017.

 

 

 

Which items do you find most surprising?

Give and Take: The Trade Relationship of the U.S. and China

Two of the world’s largest superpowers today, the U.S. and China have typically had a long-standing trade relationship going back decades. The table below shows the top 10 exports the U.S. sent to China in 2017, along with the proportion of each item in the total export value of $132 billion. The top 10 items account for 39% of total exports to China.

The Top 10 Exports from the U.S. to China (2017)

While the majority of these are highly specialized, manufactured products─such as airplanes, integrated circuits, and semiconductors─the U.S. still relies on exporting many basic commodities such as gold, copper, and soya beans.

Below is the list of the top 10 imported products from China, and the percent that each product accounts of the total $444 billion in 2017. These top 10 items make up 30% of all products imported from China.

China is best known for its electronics and technology-focused products─with electronics products accounting for two-thirds of the top 10 Chinese imports. In 2017, China also dominated all electronics imports into the U.S., claiming over 60% of the market. But how has the recent trade war impacted the imports and exports between the U.S. and China?

The U.S.-China Trade War Continues

At one point, China was the United States’ top trading partner in terms of the total value of imports and exports. Since the trade war began in 2018, China has fallen to third place. For example, soybean exports to China in 2019 are predicted to only reach a third of numbers seen in 2018, and the price of this commodity has been nearly cut in half.

In the first nine months of 2019 alone, the U.S. saw a 13.5% drop in imported products from China, due to actual and threatened increased tariffs. In addition, U.S. exports to China dropped by 15.5%─a significant loss of $53 billion.

The Future of U.S.-China Trade

To date, the U.S. has enacted tariffs on over $550 billion worth of imported products from China. In response to the U.S. tariffs, China has added tariffs to $185 billion worth of exported goods from the United States.

With the 2020 U.S. presidential election looming on the horizon, threats of increased tariffs seem to dominate headlines internationally. If these trends continue, many U.S. businesses—both at home and abroad in China—could find their bottom lines threatened by rising trade costs.

Authored by Daisy Luther via The Organic Prepper blog,

Virginia is the new battleground of the Second Amendment. After the most recent election, the state’s House and Senate are both Democrat majorities and they haven’t wasted a moment in attempting to gut the gun laws in what has historically been a permissive state.

What are these new gun laws?

The so-called “assault weapon ban” is SB16 and has that perilously vague wording we all know to be incredibly dangerous. In some interpretations, this law, if it passes, could make illegal the ownership or transportation of any semi-automatic gun because extendable magazines are available for it – and you don’t even have to have the extendable mags.

The Virginia Mercury reports:

The new Democratic majorities are expected to pass a variety of gun restrictions, including universal background checks, red flag laws that would allow authorities to take guns from people deemed dangerous and reinstatement of a one-handgun-a-month law…

…But the proposed ban on particular types of firearms — and the prospect of criminal charges for gun owners who didn’t give them up — seemed to stoke the strongest outrage in the 40-plus rural localities that have declared themselves Second Amendment sanctuaries within the past few weeks. Of the dozens of bills already filed for the session that begins in January, Saslaw’s assault weapon bill was the most-read, according to the state’s online legislative system. (source)

Since the above article was written, it should be noted that 2nd Amendment Sanctuary Counties are at 80 and counting. One sheriff has even vowed to deputize citizens should these unconstitutional laws pass.

After the public outcry, Governor Northam has said a provision will be added for current gun owners.

“In this case, the governor’s assault weapons ban will include a grandfather clause for individuals who already own assault weapons, with the requirement they register their weapons before the end of a designated grace period,” Northam spokeswoman Alena Yarmosky said in a statement Monday evening. (source)

Good try, but no cigar.

Gun owners aren’t going to take this lying down.

We’ve written before about Second Amendment sanctuaries popping up across the nation, and now Virginia is joining the fight. According to Gun Rights Watch, practically the entire state is saying NO.

Check out this map.

Map from Gun Rights Watch as of 12/11/19

Watch this article which is being updated regularly with the sanctuary movement.

These counties have passed resolutions vowing not to enforce unconstitutional gun laws. USA Today’s report refers to them as “publicity stunts” and “political statements.”

Richard Schragger, a professor at the University of Virginia School of Law, who focuses on the intersection of the Constitution and local law, told USA Today:

Rather than challenging an existing statute, the resolutions are “mostly expressive and symbolic” declarations, he said.

“In Virginia, state law supersedes local law. Citizens and local officials have to comply with state law even if a county declares itself to be a Second Amendment sanctuary,” Schragger added. (source)

It seems they may be underestimating the force of thousands of clearly well-armed and outraged Virginians if they think it’s just a publicity stunt. I’m pretty sure that the Virginians I know mean business.

Now the state legislature is threatening the sanctuary counties and officials.

Virginia Attorney General Mark Herring says that the gun owners are “being ginned up by the gun lobby” and had a few words to say about the rebellion.

“The resolutions that are being passed are being ginned up by the gun lobby to try to scare people. What we’re talking about here are laws that will make our communities and our streets safer. We’re talking about universal background checks, finally, maybe, Virginia will pass universal background checks to make sure that people who are dangerous, who are criminals and who aren’t permitted to buy guns, won’t be able to buy guns,” said Herring. “So, when Virginia passes these gun safety laws that they will be followed, they will be enforced.” (source)

How exactly do they plan to enforce those laws?

One representative hopes that the law enforcement officers will just resign.

“I would hope they either resign in good conscience, because they cannot uphold the law which they are sworn to uphold, or they’re prosecuted for failure to fulfill their oath,” Democratic Virginia Rep. Gerry Connolly told the Washington Examiner of local county police who may refuse to enforce future gun control measures. “The law is the law. If that becomes the law, you don’t have a choice, not if you’re a sworn officer of the law.” (source)

I’m 99.9% sure that any sheriff who has supported such a motion is not going to say, “Oh, it’s the law. My bad, Gerry.”

Rep. Donald McEachin believes cutting off state funds would do the trick, and if that doesn’t work he has another suggestion that is far more drastic.

McEachin also noted that Democratic Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam could call the National Guard, if necessary.

“And ultimately, I’m not the governor, but the governor may have to nationalize the National Guard to enforce the law,” he said. “That’s his call, because I don’t know how serious these counties are and how severe the violations of law will be. But that’s obviously an option he has.” (source)

Bringing in the National Guard to confiscate guns or override sanctuaries could only end one way: in bloodshed. Although, one must wonder whether the National Guard members would comply with the governor over their friends, families, and neighbors.

It’s going to get ugly fast. As serious as these legislators are about “getting guns off the street,” Virginians are equally serious about defending their right to bear arms.

It’s the ultimate game of chicken. It looks like we really have reached the point of “out of my cold, dead hands.”

Virginia gun owners, myself included, have no intention whatsoever of complying with this gun grab, and no conciliatory “you can keep them but you have to register them” gesture is going to suffice.

The only question remaining is, who’s ready to die on this hill?

As Aramco’s valuation jumped notably after its IPO – briefly topping the magical $2 trillion valuation level, one banker could be breathing a sigh of relief. 

Achintya Mangla, one of JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s most senior bankers, told Aramco Chairman Yasir Al-Rumayyan prior to its IPO that there was “no way” investors were going to value Aramco at $2 trillion. In response, Al-Rumayyan “erupted” with expletives in both English and Arabic, according to Bloomberg. After all, Al-Rumayyan now likely had to tell his boss, the crown prince, the bad news. 

The prince had long insisted on the $2 trillion valuation for Aramco, who pumps 10% of the world’s oil. Nobody had been able to convince the price along the way that global investors wouldn’t agree. Those who argued with him were pushed aside, like Khalid Al-Falih, who was fired as Aramco chairman and oil minister earlier this year. 

When bankers pitched underwriting the IPO for Aramco this year, they told Al-Rumayyan that $2 trillion “wasn’t out of the question”. An initial valuation of $1.7 trillion to $2.4 trillion was tossed around. 

But the valuation was becoming unsustainable as the IPO drew closer. Everywhere bankers pitched the IPO in September and October, they were told that the valuation was too high. One manager in Switzerland had a valuation as low as just $800 billion.

Bankers took notes on the feedback: the consensus valuation was about $1.2 trillion. Some investors said they could go slightly higher.  “Up to $1.5 trillion based on dividend,” was the feedback from Franklin Templeton, for instance. 

But the problem for many investors was the dividend yield. At $2 trillion, the yield would fall to less than 4%, which is well below what other oil and energy names are paying currently. Wellington Asset Management said the yield needed to rise to 7% or 8% to make the company a worthwhile investment. This implied a valuation of $900 billion. 

Mangla’s job in October was to break the bad news to the client, speaking on behalf of all of the banks on the deal. And he wasn’t the only one who tried to break the bad news. Jonathan Penkin, a senior equity capital markets banker at Goldman Sachs was told not to speak at any more meetings after he tried to talk about the valuation later in October. Motassim Al-Ma’Ashouq, the top Aramco executive in charge of the IPO preparations was also told to stand down. 

Karen Young, a Middle East specialist at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington and a specialist in the political economy of the Middle East said: “Saudi Arabia has always had this problem: top-down decision making. There’s a culture of fear. Savvy and able technocrats don’t feel comfortable speaking up.”

Saudi Arabia also “drew a blank” with strategic investors, who often agree to buy into an IPO earlier than others. Everywhere Aramco’s banks pitched – China, Singapore, Russia – they were told “thanks, but no thanks.”

Al-Rumayyan felt betrayed by the banks who once told him $2 trillion was possible and Aramco had a choice to face: delay the IPO and wait for a higher valuation, or cut the valuation and make the deal enticing to foreign investors. 

Riyadh had another solution: sell the Aramco shares at home and ignore foreign investors. The government had the idea of pressuring wealthy local families and bringing in friends from places like UAW and Kuwait to help with the deal. Even after these reinforcement, Aramco had to settle for a $1.7 trillion valuation. 

The IPO is a “shadow” of Aramco’s previous aspirations, but has still allowed the crown prince to claim victory. Last Thursday the company announced it had raised $25.6 billion, beating the $25 billion set by Alibaba and Aramco now has the highest valuation of any company in the world. Banks, on the other hand, face the prospect of not getting paid for nearly four years of work on the IPO. Many people were surprised the IPO happened at all. 

On the first day of Aramco trading, its valuation went limit up 10%, giving it a market value of $1.88 trillion. 

“Those who have not subscribed in Aramco will be chewing their thumb to the point that I will be worried about them that they go and fix themselves in the hospital,” oil minister Prince Abdulaziz concluded. 

And during the second day of trading, the magical $2 trillion level was crossed (but not maintained)…

Source: Bloomberg

Shares jumped almost 10% in the first 90 minutes of trading Thursday, breaching the 37.51 SAR, the level which values Aramco over $2 trillion.

But prices faded in the back half of the session and closed at 36.75 SAR, or below MbS’ target. 

Authored by Mike Snyder via Medium.com,

A publicly listed Chinese company has used a series of offshore shell companies to conceal their ownership of browser extensions that purport to offer a private search engine to users.

Search Hijacking Extensions in Browser Stores

These extensions with names like Search Encrypt and Hide My Searches engage in a form of ad fraud called search hijacking whereby searches are intercepted and redirected from one search engine to another.

Our research has identified almost 7 million users who are affected by these malware extensions, which are helping this company generate almost $250 million a year in revenue.

Search Hijacking 101

Search hijacking is a very simple type of fraud. A user with one of these extensions installed who types a search engine like Google.com into their browser address bar and intends to conduct a Google search will have their search intercepted and sent to one of several search domains setup by the perpetrator. These perpetrators monetize this traffic by placing their own ads on the search results pages. In this case, Microsoft provides both the ads and search results to the search hijacker, becoming an unwitting victim funding this fraud.

Perhaps the biggest irony is that Microsoft’s own Bing.com searches are also hijacked by the extensions and re-sold back to Microsoft.

Bing.com Search Hijacking

For example, a search for “airpods” on Bing leads to a Search Encrypt search results page that has more ads than search results. A user would have to have the stamina to scroll through 10 text ads from Microsoft and then 5 image ads before coming to an organic search result. You, the Medium reader, will also need the same stamina, as I have embedded a screenshot of the exact page below.

Search Encrypt Results Page

The Chinese Connection

Genimous Technology Co Ltd, a public company traded on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange under the symbol 000676, is the 12 billion CNY ($1.7 billion USD) company that is behind these extensions [1]. Their ownership is concealed through shell companies setup in offshore jurisdictions like Polarity Technologies Ltd in Cyprus and EightPoint Technologies Ltd in the Cayman Islands, but can be traced through analysis of the browser extensions terms of service and contact information [2, 3]. Based on public filings, in the first 6 months of 2019, Genimous made 900,296,410.76 CNY ($125 million USD) from its overseas division, which generates its revenues from ads on search results pages [4, 5 (page 15 of the PDF)] for a $250 million yearly run rate.

Genimous subsidiary, EightPoint Technologies, claims to have 10 million users and generate at least 5 billion searches a year [6]. Microsoft Bing sees 5.5 billion searches a month [7]. This implies Genimous could be responsible for driving 10% of the searches on Bing, which may not be an unreasonable assumption since we have identified almost 7 million active users of their extensions. Even at 1 search a day, 7 million users will generate 2.5 billion searches a year.

A Threat to National Security?

More concerning for users may be that Genimous is collecting and storing sensitive user data, including search queries, on Chinese servers, notwithstanding the extensions’ privacy policies which can be modified at any time, where the data are subject to Chinese laws on data privacy. While their privacy policies claim not to store “identifying” user data, past research has found how easy it is to de-anonymize data. Potentially sensitive searches could then be linked to users.

These same privacy concerns have sparked a national security investigation into TikTok because as a Chinese company, the “company must still adhere to Chinese law on supplying information to the government” [8]. However, while TikTok hosts fun and light-hearted content, the Genimous search hijacker extensions are marketed toward users who are seeking a private search engine and who may be surprised that their most sensitive searches are being stored by a Chinese company making promises that it cannot legally keep. Arguably, searches that reveal or imply a user’s sexual orientation or health status are far more damaging in the wrong hands than a funny TikTok video.

The marketing for Search Encrypt leaves little to the imagination as to the kind of searches that they are catering to [9]. These searches are also the most personal and deeply sensitive kind, exactly the kind of searches you wouldn’t want a foreign power to have access to. The forced divestment of the dating app Grindr from Chinese ownership being a case in point.

Moat Advertiser Report

Mozilla Takes a Stand

Mozilla, the maker of the popular Firefox browser, appears to have taken some preliminary steps to mitigate search hijacking with add-on policies [10] that prohibit search interception:

Search functionality provided or loaded by the add-on must not collect search terms or intercept searches that are going to a third-party search provider.

At the time of publication, however, the Genimous extensions are still active in the Firefox add-on store.

Next Steps

In the online advertising world, fraud has generally been seen as a scourge in the ad exchange space. Search advertising has been spared that level of scrutiny. As a result, standards like ads.txt that protect publishers on ad exchanges and ensure that bad actors are prevented from the unauthorized resale of publisher inventory are sorely missing when it comes to search advertising. Even the biggest publishers like Google and Bing are victims of search hijacking.

Browser extensions can only be distributed through the extension stores with the approval of the browser vendors. Will the major browser vendors like Google and Mozilla step up and stop the search hijackers?

*  *  *

Against Surveillance Capitalism – Fighting back against unscrupulous data collection

There was much rejoicing and buying of stocks when Trump tweeted, to much fanfare and bombast early this morning, that he is “Getting VERY close to a BIG DEAL with China. They want it, and so do we!.” Sure enough, just a few hours later, there was a deal. Or was there? Because whereas we now know that the US & China have agreed to a Phase One deal on Paper, and Trump signed off on it… nobody will ever know what’s in the actual deal, even once we pass it!

Here’s what we do know: according to Fox Business correspondent Edwards Lawrence, China “verbally agreed to buy $50b in agriculture, but that will not be in writing.” In fact it appears that nothing will be.

Also, the deal supposedly includes intellectual property protections, something the US has been asking for as a core demand.

A trade source tells me this is a historic day. US & China agree to a Phase One deal on Paper. The source says Chinese verbally agree to buy $50b in agriculture, but that will not be in writing. The source says the deal includes intellectual property protections. #China #Trade

— Edward Lawrence (@EdwardLawrence) December 13, 2019

Needless to say, a Chinese IP concession will most certainly not be in writing too.

Other parts of the deal include “increased access to the financial services market. There is language where the Chinese agree not to manipulate their currency. There is enforcement written into the agreement. Dec 15th tariffs do not go forward.”

The Phase One deal includes increase access to the financial services market. There is language where the Chinese agree not to manipulate their currency. There is enforcement written into the agreement. Dec 15th tariffs do not go forward. #China #Trade

— Edward Lawrence (@EdwardLawrence) December 13, 2019

Perhaps most important for traders is that this is the end of the overnight “trade deal optimism” rally: phase two of the trade deal will “begin after 2020 elections.” Which means a whole year without Trump tweets that a deal is very close and that China is dying to do it.

The source says Dec 15th tariffs do not go forward. There will be a small reduction in tariffs on some Chinese goods as a gesture of good will. Phase Two of the negotiations will begin after 2020 elections. #China #Trade

— Edward Lawrence (@EdwardLawrence) December 13, 2019

Yet for all of the above, here’s the most mindboggling part. Lawrence said that the Chinese have requested that the language of the trade deal will never be made public.

That’s right – there is (supposedly) a “deal”, written on paper somewhere, specifying certain terms, and signed by certain US and Chinese presidents. And nobody will ever see what that deal actually states.

The source says a signing ceremony will not happen with President Xi. There will be a rollout of the agreement by the White House Friday. The Chinese have requested that the language of the never be made public. #China #Trade

— Edward Lawrence (@EdwardLawrence) December 13, 2019

Effectively, the Phase One trade deal “could” be nothing more than a market manipulating blank piece of paper, and since China has only pledged to do something – which nobody will know as it is not written – and since China has not committed contractually in the court of public opinion, it will have absolutely no incentive to abide by the Phase One “deal>”

And just to confirm that it is all a farce, the source said there would be no signing event between President Trump and President Xi, confirming that a a probably never actually happened.

Of course, none of this matters to the algos,as markets soared then soared more on Thursday, pricing in for the 563rd time a trade deal that may very well not exist. Here’s the moment when the Dow jumped 400 points on President Trump’s trade tweet.

As a reminder, today’s “we have a deal” news was just recycled headlines from Oct. 11, when President Trump first announced a phase one trade deal on Twitter.

And while we now have a secret, unsigned “deal”, the president spent the last several months jawboning stocks higher on imminent trade deal headlines. During this period, the S&P500 rose by nearly 8%.

Of course, in a world where the Fed’s NOT QE is about to inject $500 billion in liquidity in the next 4 weeks, and NOT bail out the biggest US and European banks, it is only fitting that the US-China unsigned, forever secret NOT trade deal is just the catalyst that pushes the NOT market to a new all time high.

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

Something is causing the waters just off the west coast to heat up dramatically, fish are dying off in staggering numbers, birds that feed on those fish are also dying off rapidly, and scientists have discovered 15,000 holes in the ocean floor off the coast of California.

Oh, and scientists don’t know for certain why any of these things are happening. Unfortunately, the mainstream media is not emphasizing this crisis, and so most Americans don’t even know what is going on. But the truth is that what we are facing is extremely serious.

In fact, officials have taken the “unprecedented” step of shutting down the federal cod fishery in Alaska for the year because of the lack of fish. We are seeing things happen that we have never seen before, and this is definitely going to affect our food supply.

So why are the fish dying?

Well, nobody knows for sure, but some officials are blaming the “marine heat wave” that has been happening in the waters along the west coast. The following comes from KING5 News…

A massive warmer-than-normal pool of water that’s formed in the Pacific Ocean off the Washington coast and up into the Gulf of Alaska may already be wreaking havoc with our weather.

This is something that I have written about previously. Scientists are telling us that water temperatures are “as much as 6 degrees Fahrenheit above normal”, and if such conditions persist we could see millions upon millions of fish die.

At this point, we are being told that this vast expanse of water is roughly “1,000 to 2,000 miles” in size in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

Hopefully this “blob” will go away soon, but that hasn’t happened so far, and nobody really knows what is causing it.

Meanwhile, fish are dying off at an absolutely staggering rate. As I mentioned above, there are so few cod off the coast of Alaska right now that officials felt that it was necessary to shut down the federal cod fishery for the entire year…

In an unprecedented response to historically low numbers of Pacific cod, the federal cod fishery in the Gulf of Alaska is closing for the 2020 season. It’s a decision that came as little surprise, but it’s the first time the fishery has closed due to concerns of low stock.

When I first heard about that, I was quite stunned.

And the outlook for the future looks quite grim, because officials are telling us that there are “next to no” new eggs…

A stock assessment this fall put Gulf cod populations at a historic low, with “next to no” new eggs, according to NOAA research biologist Steve Barbeaux, who authored the report.

At their current numbers, cod are below the federal threshold that protects them as a food source for endangered Steller sea lions. Once below that line, the total allowable catch goes to zero — in other words, the fishery shuts down.

The birds that feed on those fish are also dying off in large numbers.

Because of a severe lack of fish, they are literally dropping dead from starvation, and at this point there isn’t much that officials can do about it. The following comes from the Big Wobble…

In November 2019, thousands of short-tailed shearwaters birds migrating from Alaska were washing up dead on Sydney’s iconic beaches and the bird deaths had nothing to do with the massive wildfires in the area, thousands more, short-tailed shearwaters were dying out at sea, in what was confirmation of the incredible fish shortages in the Pacific Ocean. The corpses had been spotted at several shorelines including Bondi, Manly and Cronulla. The birds were migrating back to southern Australia to breed after spending the summer in Alaska. But, according to experts, a higher number than usual are dying on the way due to a lack of food. The birds need to be at full strength to make the 14,000km trip over the Pacific but the krill and other fish they feed on have apparently dwindled due to sea temperatures rising.

Let us hope that things will return to normal eventually, but there is no guarantee that is going to happen.

Our planet is becoming increasing unstable, and really weird things are starting to take place.

Speaking of weird, scientists are telling us that they have found 15,000 holes in the ocean waters off the California coast…

Thousands of strange round holes scooped out of the ocean floor have been uncovered along the coast of California.

Some measure nearly 600 feet across, but scientists are unsure how they formed.

As many as 15,000 holes have been found during an underwater survey by the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute (MBARI).

I was quite alarmed when I read that, and even more alarming is the fact that scientists are telling us that the cause of all of these holes “remains a mystery”…

“The cause and persistence of the pockmarks still remains a mystery, but we find no evidence they were created from gas or fluid in the sea floor in the recent past. The micro-depressions are recently formed erosional features; they are not ‘incipient pockmarks’. Overall, a lot more work needs to be done to understand how all these features were formed, and this work is in progress.”

For a long time I have been warning about what is happening to our planet. Volcanoes are going off like firecrackers all over the globe, and there was another major volcanic eruption in New Zealand on Monday. And earthquake activity continues to rise to very troubling levels. In fact, it was recently reported that there have been almost 60,000 earthquakes of at least magnitude 1.5 around the world over the last 12 months…

Earthquake tracking website EarthquakeTrack has recorded an astounding 59,841 tremors around the globe in the last 365 days on December 9. In the last 30 days, a total of 4,172 tremors higher than magnitude 1.5 were felt and 895 hit in the last seven days.

The official story is that everything is just fine and our planet will start behaving normally again soon.

But unofficially, a lot of scientists out there are deeply concerned about what we are witnessing.

A great shaking has begun, and nobody is quite sure what is going to happen next.

The final 2020 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) passed the House on Wednesday 377-48 at a massive and unprecedented $738 billion, in a nearly united Republican vote which also included over 180 House Democrats. It marks a $22 billion spending increase for the Pentagon.

It’s expected to be signed by President Trump likely next week after it goes through the Senate, after it was stripped of all significant items the administration would find objectionable, including a controversial War Powers Act resolution meant to end US involvement in Yemen and which would would have required Congressional approval for military action against Iran.

Interestingly, the House bill also removed language that blocked the Pentagon from researching low-yield nuclear weapons, and the House also backed away from controversial border wall restrictions. 

Long sought after sanctions targeting Russia’s Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline to Germany were added. Trump had previously accused Berlin of handing “billions” of dollars to the Russians to the detriment of Ukraine, whose gas transit facilities will be bypassed by the new Gazprom spearheaded venture, set for completion within months. Expanded and severe new sanctions were also added against Syria, known as the ‘Caesar bill’.

Crucially, Trump’s ‘Space Force’ will now become a reality. As Defense News explains:

In a history making win for Trump, the agreement would add a new armed service, dedicated to space, under Title 10 of U.S. Code, which was an action the White House saw as pivotal to solidifying it as a fully independent military branch. The Space Force would be housed within the Air Force and led by the chief of space operations, who would report directly to the Air Force secretary and be a member of the Joint Chiefs.

Meanwhile, the most vocal progressive Democrat opponent of the massive defense spending bill, Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), had this to say in a floor speech ahead of Wednesday’s vote: “there are many things you can call the bill, but it’s Orwellian to call it progressive.” 

“Let’s speak in facts,” said Khanna. “This defense budget is $120 billion more than what Obama left us with. That could fund free public college for every American. It could fund access to high-speed, affordable internet for every American. But it’s worse. The bipartisan amendment to stop the war in Yemen: stripped by the White House. The bipartisan amendment to stop the war in Iran: stripped by the White House.”

Indeed, the most worrisome aspect to the new NDAA is that it makes it easier for the White House to go to war with Iran, at a moment tensions continue to soar. 

An advisor to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) said China’s economy might not recover for the next five years, reported Reuters.

Liu Shijin, a policy adviser to the PBoC, said the country’s GDP will decelerate through 2025 and could print in a range of 5 to 6%. 

Shijin warned that excessive monetary policy is failing to stimulate the economy and could cause it to rapidly decelerate.

Last month, we noted that China’s credit growth plunged to the weakest pace since 2017 as a continued collapse in shadow banking, weak corporate demand for credit, and seasonal effects all signaled that China’s economy, nevertheless, the global economy, will continue to slow. 

The latest Q3 GDP figure recorded a further drop in growth, now printing at 6% YoY, the weakest expansion since the early 1990s. 

China will continue decelerating into 1H20 — thanks to ineffective monetary policy but could stabilize in a target range of 5.8% to 6% YoY.

A further economic slowdown in Chinese growth could ruin the party for equity bulls, who have already priced in a massive 2016-style rebound in the global economy. A slowing China means the world will fail to rebound, though we don’t discount the stabilization narrative.

With China’s economy unlikely to sharply rebound early next year, global investors will shortly have to reprice growth, which could result in a move down in global equities. 

To gain more color on China’s extended slowdown, we turn to Fathom Consulting’s China Momentum Indicator (CMI), which provides a more in-depth view of China’s economic activity than the official Chinese GDP statistics.

CMI is based on ten alternative indicators for economic activity; some of those indicators include railway freight, electricity consumption, and the issuance of bank loans.

Fathom has stated that in CMI, the calculation of the index avoids measuring construction activity, and instead focuses on shadow measures of economic activity. The consulting group says this allows the index to be “less prone to manipulation than the headline GDP figures.”

“In 2014, when China’s traditional growth model was running out of steam and vulnerabilities were rising, authorities toyed with credit tightening and an enforced rebalancing. But at the end of 2015, when growth slowed too sharply, they quickly threw in the towel, resorting to the old growth model of credit-fuelled growth. With growth once again slowing, and past precedent suggesting credit has neared its limit, China finds itself at a crossroad,” Fathom recently said.

China’s failure to stimulate its economy suggests CMI will continue a downward trajectory that has been underway for the last decade.

We’ve recently outlined the bust of the global auto industry has weighed down the Chinese economy. With no signs of an upswing in the auto market, China’s economy will remain depressed in the years ahead.

As China’s economy slows, global commodity prices are stuck in a deflationary spiral. 

China’s slowing economy warns that global equities have mispriced growth for early 1Q20. 

Chinese stocks could see downside in the year ahead as the economy slows. 

Looking for signs of life in the Chinese economy — there aren’t any at the moment.

Société Générale’s latest report shows employment in China contracting across manufacturing and non-manufacturing, outlining how the slowdown is broad-based.

It’s becoming increasingly clear that China’s economy is decelerating and could be locked in a downward spiral until 2025. This means without China being the beating heart of the global economy, which created 60% of all new global debt over the past decade – there can be no global recovery. Maybe the world has just transitioned into a period of low or below trend growth that could be the onset of a worldwide trade recession.

Authored by Sarah Cowgill via LibertyNation.com,

Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI), the outspoken, independent thinker from Hawaii running for the loftiest perch in the land, has just said “no” to taking the next Democratic presidential primary debate stage. This signals either a surrender or a strategic end-run around the field. Yes, we’ve been down this road before. It is the same sentiment she expressed prior to the last debate; although she threatened to boycott the circus, she did qualify, show up, and rebuke the other candidates and the Democratic Party.

Gabbard has been Public Enemy #1 in those circles since. Instead of playing into the cemented narrative, Tulsi, who has not so far reached the conditions imposed for participation in the next round, is not wasting her time.

The Most Repetitive Show On Earth

As the sixth platform for national domination looms, Gabbard tweeted a different plan, saying:

“For a number of reasons, I have decided not to attend the December 19th ‘debate’ — regardless of whether or not there are qualifying polls. I instead choose to spend that precious time directly meeting with and hearing from the people of New Hampshire and South Carolina.”

Whether her bold decision is based on not quite reaching the necessary baseline requirements, or because she has had enough of the game playing, Tulsi seems indifferent to striving for inclusion. And we all know Gabbard is not one to tread water in the shallow end of the pool when a good, strong crawl will cover more territory.

Tulsi Gabbard

The Democratic National Committee (DNC) has upped the ante for primetime pandering by requiring candidates to have a minimum of 4% support in selected national polls and 6% in two state polls of the early primary states Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, or Nevada.

The deadline for polling qualification is Dec. 12 at the witching hour of 11:59 p.m. in the Eastern time zone. How dramatic for what is likely to be a boring rehash of Trump-bashing, held a scant week later.

Although Tulsi has the sheer donor numbers needed – the support of at least 200,000 unique donors – her national polling numbers haven’t yet reached the threshold. Those on the survey leaderboard are Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), former Vice President Joe Biden, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, billionaire Tom Steyer, and businessman Andrew Yang.

A Diverse Or One-Note Race?

Tulsi has been tilting at the DNC and its primary prerequisites since the get-go, claiming the surveyors they used weren’t “accurate” enough, or that the venues were biased. Gabbard’s campaign released a statement in August, which said:

“Many of the uncertified polls, including those conducted by highly reputable organizations such as The Economist and the Boston Globe, are ranked by Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight as more accurate than some DNC ‘certified’ polls.”

The DNC was insistent that its criteria for inclusion have been fair and balanced. Just ask the committee’s spokeswoman Xochitl Hinojosa, who responded:

“This has been the most inclusive debate process with more women and candidates of color participating in more debates than billionaires. We are proud of this historic and diverse field with 20 candidates participating in the first two debates and at least 10 candidates in each debate after that.”

What’s ironic is that no people of color – because of the strident stipulations imposed – will be at the Dec. 19 debate hosted by PBS NewsHour and Politico at the Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles. PBS is set to broadcast the debate, and most likely, fewer people will watch the event than Gabbard can reach by holding town halls or meet and greets. Perhaps she’s on to something, after all.

The Interpublic Group of Companies’ research unit Magna has reported global television advertising sales plunged 4% in 2019, one of the steepest declines since the financial crisis as the global economy continues to decelerate through Q4, first reported by Bloomberg.

Magna estimates that global television ad sales contracted by 4% in 2019, one of the worst years since the 2008/9 financial crisis, as advertisers pulled back on spending and also shifted ad spending to the internet. 

Recent declines in TV viewership have suppressed television ad sales. It was determined that viewership plunged during the year in the US, Europe, China, and Australia. 

“Almost everywhere now, we have linear viewing declining double digits, or high single digits,” said Vincent Letang, EVP of global market intelligence at Magna. 

Cord-cutting has been a significant driver of the demise of cable television. Consumers are opting for online streaming services, not just in the US, but across the world. 

Even with a 19.6% plunge in global print ad sales and 3.6% slide in global traditional television ad sales over the year, the industry as a whole was propped up by tremendous growth in global digital ad sales. 

Magna said global ad sales spending would increase by 4.6% in 2020, though at a much slower rate than 5.2% so far recorded in 2019.

National television ad sales in the US saw a drop over the year, estimated to be around -3% to $42 billion, and will likely slow in 2020 as a mild recession could appear in the back half of the year. A slowdown in the economy could further dent television ad sales; one of the sectors pressuring the decline is the automotive industry. 

US TV ad sales will remain slower in 2020 but could see artificial boosts at specific periods during the year thanks to the presidential election and the Summer Olympics. Technology and entertainment ad spending could offset weakness in print and television ad sales. 

As the overall global ad industry slows with the threat of a worldwide trade recession next year, the cracks are already beginning to show as print and television ad sales stumble. Slowing global trade in the quarters ahead will continue to compress profit margins for companies across the world and lead to declining advertisement spending. The world is entering a period of ‘slowbalisation.’