More Than Half Of Homes Listed In NYC Last Year Never Sold

A torrid post-crisis recovery in the NYC housing market came to a screeching halt last year as a chasm opened up between what sellers were asking and what buyers were willing to pay.

But in the clearest post-mortem showing just how bad last year was for one of the world’s most unaffordable real estate markets, Property Shark  found in a recent analysis that less than half of the housing inventory available sold last year. According to PS, 48% of the homes listed between March through May of last year had been sold as of Feb. 1.

It’s a symptom of New York’s softening market, where a glut of inventory has given buyers major bargaining power, said Grant Long, senior economist for StreetEasy. Of the homes that didn’t sell, only 14% are still listed. But most of the homes that were pulled off the market could easily reemerge

And of the homes from last spring that did sell, roughly 70% of them closed for less than their owners initially sought. That’s up from 62% of sales a year earlier and 61% in 2016.

The resulting glut in unsold inventory is creating problems for sellers who are facing another tidal wave of inventory.

Housing

Here’s a breakdown of the report’s findings (text courtesy of Property Shark):

1. Of All Homes Listed for Sale in Spring 2018, Fewer Than Half Sold

Just 48 percent of the homes listed during March, April, and May 2018 had sold as of February 2019. While weakness at the top of the NYC sales market has been grabbing headlines, the sluggish pace of sales has extended to homes across boroughs and price points. Manhattan homes fared slightly worse than others, with just 44 percent selling, but even in the comparably strong market in Queens, just 54 percent of homes found buyers. This is not only about price: Though 61 percent of all homes listed for $1 million or more failed to sell, so did 45 percent of all homes priced under $1 million. (Nonetheless, units priced at or above $5 million fared far worse, with just 140 of 656 units, or 21 percent, finding buyers.)

The Greenwich Club condominium in the Financial District exemplifies this trend. A total of 31 units in the building were listed for sale in March, April, and May 2018, but only six have sold. One more entered contract in December, and another six have since relisted, but many — including a 1-bedroom asking $1.25 million, 25 percent above its 2016 purchase price — left the market without fanfare in late 2018.

2. Many Homes Listed Last Spring Were Taken Off-Market

Most sellers who were unable to find buyers at suitable prices have simply pulled their listings from the market. Of all listings created in spring 2018, 40 percent are either paused, delisted, or otherwise no longer available on StreetEasy. Only 7.5 percent of all the listings from the peak months, or 14 percent of the total unsold units, are still actively seeking buyers. Listing agents marked another 4.5 percent of homes as in-contract, with the majority entering deals in late 2018 and presumably closing in early 2019. Yet with many more unsold, we will likely continue to see heightened inventory heading into the spring home-shopping season, as these sellers try again to find a buyer.

3. The Majority of 2018 Sales Closed Below Asking Price

Of homes listed last spring that managed to find a buyer, we estimate that 70 percent closed below their initial asking price[1]. The median difference between the recorded closing price (as reflected in public records) and the initial listing price on StreetEasy was 5.5 percent, for a $44,000 discount off the $800,000 median listing price for homes sold. Buyers enjoyed particularly high negotiating power in Manhattan, where 77 percent of homes sold below their initial asking price, compared to 68 percent of homes in Queens and 61 percent of homes in Brooklyn.

Homes selling below their initial asking price is not a new phenomenon, but with heightened competition for buyer interest, spring 2018 was particularly painful for sellers. In 2017 and 2016, 62 and 61 percent, respectively, of homes listed in the spring sold below ask in a comparable time period.

4. Aggressively Priced Homes Stand Out

Though these numbers make selling a home seem daunting, a significant chunk of homes – 19 percent of all sales – closed above their original asking price. While these home sales ranged across price points and neighborhoods, they tended to be among the cheapest in their respective neighborhoods for their bedroom count. Homes that ultimately sold above ask were initially listed for a median of 8.8 percent below the respective 2018 median price for their neighborhood and bedroom count. Meanwhile, homes that sold below asking price were listed a median of 1.2 percent above the respective median for their neighborhood and bedroom count. Homes that went unsold were initially listed for a median of 6.4 percent above their respective benchmark median.

* * *

To be sure, the property glut has given buyers serious bargaining power. And while sellers are hoping for a rebound (particularly if Trump does manage to repeal the SALT deduction cap, which the Senate has already said won’t happen), with more inventory set to hit the market, the downturn could persist for some time, particularly with median home values still well above the range that NYC’s population of indebted, cash-poor millennials are willing/able to pay.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2Nasfdv Tyler Durden

Haitian Protesters Burn American Flag, Urge Russian Help Against US “Puppet” Regime

A French language AFP report over the weekend featured surprising photographs of Haitians burning American flags as the unrest and chaos continues especially in the Haitian capital of Port-au-Prince.

Major cities throughout Haiti have for days essentially been on “lockdown” due to civil unrest and mass protests demanding that President Jovenal Moise step down over charges of corruption and rampant inflation under his watch — yet unlike similar unrest happening hundreds of miles due south of the small Caribbean country in Venezuela, Washington has stood in support of the president, who since 2017 has found himself facing a flood of popular anger surrounding the PetroCaribe scandal.

A man identifying himself only as Bronson, a Haitian protester, burns the US flag on February 15, via the APF.

Though the mass protests have multiple layers in terms of motives, stemming mostly from skyrocketing inflation and the government’s failure to hold to account leaders caught embezzling from a multi-billion dollar Venezuelan program that sent discounted oil to Haiti, or the PetroCaribe affair, a number of the protest gatherings are distinctly anti-American in their rhetoric and symbolism, while at the same time being pro-Russian. 

Reflecting the global geopolitical divide over the crisis in nearby Venezuela, the AFP report describes some of the anti-American elements to the protests as follows (based on a rough translation from the French): 

A group of protesters burned an American flag Friday afternoon in the heart of the Haitian capital Port-au-Prince, calling for help from Russia to solve the crisis that paralyzed the country for over a week.

The protester who set the American flag on fire, calling himself Bronson, told the AFP, “We are asking Russia, Venezuela and China to take a look at the misery we live in here.” Bronson and the group of protesters said the Haitian political system had for too long been under the thumb of Washington, and appealed to Russia and China for help.

Bronson said further, as related by the AFP

“We mean that we divorce completely Americans: we took too much occupation in the hands of the United States, we can not,” said Bronson, a small group protester who set the flag on fire.

According to some 200 participants in the rally, former Haitian President Michel Martelly and his successor, the current head of state Jovenel Moise, were placed in power by the United States.

Indeed over the weekend the White House said it is sticking by Moise’s leadership, and called for calm in the streets. 

Haitian protesters appealing the Russian president Putin for help, via the AFP.

Starting weeks ago Washington began putting immense pressure on Port-au-Prince to break ties with the Maduro regime in Venezuela, in recognition of self-styled “Interim President” Juan Guaido. 

These pressures were successful and the Haitian government caved earlier this month, fueling the rage of many Hatians in the street, many of which were already angered over the impact that Washington’s oil sanctions on nearby Venezuelea are having on Haiti.

Thus Jovenal Moise’s government so easily succumbing to Washington against Maduro was the last straw for many in a politically complex scandal which has grown for years as a result of the Petrocaribe deal, which began in earnest when it was revealed in 2017 that almost $4bn in funds earmarked for social development went missing, widely assumed to be the result of corrupt officials still holding positions of power within the Moise government ranks skimming on a mass scale. 

Meanwhile the US State Department urged all American citizens out of the country over the past days, and issued a no-not-travel advisory due to “crime and civil unrest.” This was followed on Saturday by national security adviser John Bolton issuing a statement for all sides in Haiti to “respect and protect their democracy” — a bit ironic considering he spent the rest of the day tweeting regime change related messages targeting Venezuela’s Maduro.

He revealed in the tweet that he met with Haitian Foreign Minister on Friday “to express the United States’ enduring support for and friendship with Haiti.” He further urged “all of Haiti’s political actors to respect and protect their democracy, engage in dialogue, and put an end to the political violence.”

This is certainly unlikely to mitigate the growing anti-American sentiment present in the protests, which have also included violent clashes with police, resulting in several deaths. 

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2S5u4cA Tyler Durden

Hedge Fund CIO: “The Rich And Powerful Always Win”

Submitted by Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from 2015 on what led to today’s growing backlash against inequality, injustice

Anecdote (Jan 2015):

“The rich and powerful always win; that’s the starting point,” said the clear-eyed cynic, more interested in making mountains from molehills, than tilting at windmills.

“When upstarts periodically challenge their dominance, buying leveraged assets at wide credit spreads, central bankers throw the economy into recession, bankrupting new money, consolidating and preserving the existing power structure,” he continued. “That’s how capitalism mixed with democracy and rule of law works.”

It ensures a positive correlation between competency and decision-making.

“The guys able to manage bigger bats are the ones swinging bigger bats; there’s probably no better way to do it.” What matters most is relative positioning within the wealth and power hierarchy, not absolute positioning. Which is why some crises that cleanse the system are by design, so devastating for everyone, including the powerful.

“Germany is in charge of Europe, and what do they want?” he asked, rhetorically. “They want every country on a DIP loan forever.” The last thing Germany wants is for their southern neighbors and France to pay off their debts.

“They want contractualized slavery, no different from what Hong Kong Chinese want from their Filipino maids.” But how about Germany’s acceptance of quantitative easing? “You hold off and give as little as you can,” he explained. “But giving as little as you can is different from giving nothing at all.” For all the excitement surrounding Draghi’s open-ended announcement this week, he’ll buy $1-$2trln of assets in an $80trln asset economy.

It solves no problems; buying time, while simultaneously relieving politicians of the imperative to make hard choices. Plus, with no real growth, or prospect of healthy returns on real investment, companies will now simply pay down existing debt.

“The Germans understand that even slaves need beds, and when they’re sick, you must let them go see the doctor.”

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2GOtBcH Tyler Durden

Morgan Stanley: “We Are Sceptical That The Goldilock Narrative Will Hold Together”

From “Sunday Start”, authored by Andrew Sheets, Morgan Stanley chief cross-asset strategist.

Markets frequently change their mind, but even adjusting for that, the shift in ‘conventional wisdom’ in recent months has been nothing short of whiplash. In December, there was widespread agreement among investors that recession risk had risen sharply, that rising inflation pressures would keep central banks tightening policy, and that US-based risks around trade and government funding had risen sharply. Skip forward two months and these fears have been replaced by a different (if familiar) term: Goldilocks.

The Goldilocks narrative made repeated appearances from 2010-16, and the current version sounds something like this – inflationary pressures have receded, giving central banks wide latitude to pause almost indefinitely on policy tightening. Global growth is slowing, but not enough to be truly concerning. And US political risks are close to resolution, with growing investor optimism that lasting solutions to funding the US government and US-China trade are now within reach. We are sceptical that this story holds together.

The Goldilocks narrative depends on a lack of inflation, which gives central banks the opportunity (although not the obligation) to continue accommodative policy. Core inflation readings in developed markets have moved sideways in recent months, forward-looking inflation expectations have dropped sharply, and my colleague Chetan Ahya notes that emerging market inflation currently sits near 15-year lows. Taken together, investors sound more emboldened that a lack of inflation pressure means that central banks have nothing but time.

We’re not so sure. Even with recent energy-led declines, headline inflation is near the 25-year average in the US, UK, France, Germany and Japan. Unemployment is near 50-year lows in the US, 45-year lows in the UK, 25-year lows in Japan and 20-year lows in the eurozone, while measures of wage growth in the US and Europe continue to push higher. All these suggest that DM economies are working with significantly less spare capacity than they were under prior periods when ‘Goldilocks’ reigned.

It’s also important to be careful with level-setting in the inflation discussion. Yes, the current level of US core CPI inflation (2.2%Y) is ‘low’ by the standards of the last 60 years. But it is far less extreme relative to the last two decades. And lest one thinks that inflation provides a true late-cycle warning signal, this is a good time to remember that core CPI is currently at the same level as May 2007 and higher than May-December 1999.

But Goldilocks is about more than a lack of inflation; it also requires enough growth to allay downside fears. And that’s our other problem with this argument. Global growth data remain poor.

The weakness in the global economic data is notably broad. Trade data, global PMIs and earnings revisions have all turned sharply lower in the last three months, a powerful reminder that weakness in 4Q18 wasn’t simply about the Federal Reserve. And while US data have held up better, it’s hardly been immune, with this past week seeing the worst month-onmonth decline in US retail sales since the early 2000s.

There is a good debate about whether this weakness is currently troughing. Our economists think we are close to more aggressive economic stimulus from China, viewing the sharp rise in total social financing in the most recent monthly data as a sign that policy-makers are taking more aggressive action. But if these measures provide a strong boost to the Chinese (and global) economy, that wouldn’t fit the ‘Goldilocks’ script. And if those measures fail to materialise, or are unsuccessful, it wouldn’t be Goldilocks either.

Meanwhile, it’s important to remember that, for US earnings, the weakness is just beginning. Our US equity strategists now expect just 1% EPS growth for the entire year, a reminder that the challenges to the US fundamental story aren’t going away any time soon.

Finally, politics. The third part of the Goldilocks story is that risks around US trade and government funding will now provide positive catalysts. Our US public policy team, led by Michael Zezas, disagrees. This is partly because investor optimism on both issues has already risen materially while key issues remain unresolved. On trade, we don’t think tariffs go higher on March 2, but major issues remain unresolved. On government funding, the US administration’s intention to declare a state of emergency to secure funding would set up a new confrontation with Congress.

In short, we think that investors should be sceptical of the Goldilocks narrative, and look for strategies that benefit from inconsistencies within it. Big picture, we are not looking to add exposure here, and have been looking to reduce some emerging market beta into strength. Our forecasts for stimulus that will help China growth stabilise while US growth continues to moderate support the strategic case to be short the broad USD and overweight international over US equities, and a bullish view on both A-shares and the renminbi. On a smaller scale, our rates strategists continue to think that the level of US real rates is too high relative to expectations that the Fed is now done hiking for the cycle. Either those expectations of further hikes should come up, or 10-year real rates should come down.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2X8t8b5 Tyler Durden

Russia Touts “Unlimited Range” Of New Nuclear Cruise Missile As INF Unravels

Following the dramatic US withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) within the last month and amidst continuing tit-for-tat accusations between Moscow and Washington since then, which even appears to have imperiled the future of the New START treaty, Russia is aggressively touting its new nuclear cruise missile, the 9M730 Burevestnik (or “Storm Petrel”), which Russian media reports say has entered the final stage of testing and development. 

The Kremlin is claiming the nuclear-powered, nuclear-tipped cruise missile has “unlimited” range and advance superior maneuvering capabilities against anti-air defenses. Russian media previously last week reported based on official state sources that the missile’s nuclear power unit was successfully tested in January 2018.

The Russia’s Ministry of Defense (MoD) last summer released production line footage and images of the 9M730 Burevestnik nuclear powered cruise missile.

The announcement appears a follow-up to a series of promises that President Putin made back in March of last year at the annual Russian state of the union address, according to TASS, “in a message to the Federal Assembly, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia developed a small-sized nuclear power mechanism that can be used in a cruise missile, which will allow it to receive a virtually unlimited range.”

At that time Putin also issued what sounded like an implicit threat to the West, explaining before Russian lawmakers that he’s repeatedly warned Washington not to go ahead with anti-missile systems that Moscow fears could erode its nuclear deterrent. However “nobody listened to us. Listen now,” he said, to a loud ovation from the crowd of legislators, officials, and dignitaries after describing a range of new “hypersonic weapons” the military was pursuing. 

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) followed Putin’s statements by releasing video purporting to confirm the hypersonic weapons claims, including what appeared to be a test of the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile, though still impossible for analysts to confirm the extent of the truthfulness of the nuclear fueled flight. 

To get a sense of the extent to which Moscow is putting Washington on notice amidst the latest INF controversy, RT touts the missile as “even able to circle around the globe for days, if required.”

The Russian media report further summarized the following claimed capabilities, based on military sources:

The military says that its ability to traverse virtually any distance will be coupled with an equally astounding “unlimited ability to maneuver.” It will make the missile extremely hard to intercept while penetrating an enemy’s defenses.

If the weapon becomes fully operational, Moscow will be able to launch missiles “from the Asian mainland, program them to cross the Pacific, go around South America, and penetrate US airspace from the Gulf of Mexico,” Popular Mechanics wrote earlier this week.

US Tomahawk missiles, by comparison, are designed to hit ranges to within a maximum 2,500km, or 1,550 miles. 

Last October at a speech at the Valdai Club in Sochi, Putin again bragged, “It is a fact of life that we are ahead of all our partners and competitors in this sphere of high precision, hypersonic weapons,” he said.

“No one else has that… In that sense, we feel very comfortable, very safe,” he added. 

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2TWlmiA Tyler Durden

Insys Used Rap Video To Push For Higher Opioid Doses

A little over two weeks into the racketeering trial of Insys Therapeutics founder John Kapoor, federal prosecutors last week revealed a rap video produced by the company used to motivate sales representatives to boost sales of its highly addictive opioid spray, reported Bloomberg.

The video, titled “Great by Choice,” was initially shown during a 2015 national sales conference encouraged reps to increase Subsys dosages to doctors through a process known as titration. In return, doctors across the country received millions of dollars in a kickback scheme.

“I love titration. Yeah it’s a not a problem,” rapped the cast in the video called, “Great by Choice.” “I got new patients and I got a lot of ‘em.”

“Build relationships that are healthy,” the song went on. “Got more docs than Janelle’s got selfies.”

At the end of the video, the person dressed up as the bottle of Subsys reveals himself as then-vice president of sales, Alec Burlakoff.

Burlakoff pleaded guilty last Fall to racketeering and could soon testify against Kapoor.

The video is the latest evidence in the trial, which has put a spotlight on the federal government’s efforts to crack down on the opioid crisis.

Last month, a former Insys employee told jurors that she witnessed her boss — regional sales manager Sunrise Lee — give an erotic lap dance at a Chicago club to a doctor that was planning to increase prescriptions of Subsys.

Beth Wilkinson, an attorney for Kapoor, told jurors that Burlakoff was solely responsible for the criminal activity. Wilkinson said Burlakoff and the government’s other key witness, former CEO Michael Babich, are liars who are trying to take down Kapoor in the hopes of getting a smaller sentence.

Babich pleaded guilty in January and told jurors last week that Kapoor pushed to get patients on higher doses to increase sales. Babich also said that Insys looked for sales reps who were “poor, hungry and driven.” Insys also recruited employees who were “easy on the eyes,” he added.

“No physician wanted a quote unquote unattractive person to walk in their door,” he said.

In 2016, Insys paid out more than $2 million to doctors in the kickback scheme.

Since the Food and Drug Administration approved Subsys in 2012 for cancer patients, there have been more than 900 related deaths.

Perhaps the real opioid crisis is not on the Mexico–United States border, but it is big pharma that is pumping legal opioids to the American people.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2DKWXpk Tyler Durden

New Study Exposes How 21st Century Capitalists Game The US Tax System

A new study finds that the increase in income inequality has more to do with a different group of earners (not necessarily idle millionaires): America’s “working rich,” according to a report co-authored by Princeton University.

Entrepreneurs and highly skilled professionals operating businesses prevail among the top 0.01%. These “working rich,” which include lawyers, physicians, financial professionals, auto dealers, and beverage distributors, receive most of their income from human capital, the study reveals.

“We set out to understand what has been driving top incomes in recent years, and that upended some previous findings about the rich,” says co-author Owen Zidar, assistant professor of economics at Princeton University’s Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, in a release. “People are earning a lot of dollars through private businesses, and that’s important evidence that should influence the debate around taxing millionaires.’”

Zidar co-authored the report with Matthew Smith of the U.S. Department of the Treasury; Danny Yagan of the University of California, Berkeley; and Eric Zwick of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.

The team examined more than 11 million firms between 2001 and 2014, before the 2017 Tax Reform was passed, and found the vast majority of the top income comes from “pass-through” businesses wherein profits and losses are passed through the operators themselves. Essentially, the top .01% are not paying corporate and dividend taxes around 50 to 55%, but instead pay 11.6% or less.

The new findings provide valuable insight into the secret world of entrepreneurs whose human capital income is critical for understanding top incomes. Researchers specify the need for a more harmonized business tax system, more highly skilled professionals, and the need to modernize the educational system to produce more innovators and entrepreneurs.

Researchers explained the evolution of the top .01%: Reagan-era tax reforms increased tax liabilities for businesses and reduced them for individuals. While this has been great for small firms over the last three decades, it made the concept of the pass-through business more appealing for large business owners to game the system.

The report said the 2017 tax reform decreased taxes on qualifying pass-throughs. “It’s unclear which businesses qualify as a pass-through for the new deduction, as it’s been done in an ad hoc way. So, architecture and engineering firms receive the new 20% rate, while other service firms and consultancies do not,” explains Zidar. “It’s complicated in terms of who is eligible, but it’s now among the biggest tax breaks in the tax code.”

Zidar said the median number of owners for pass-through companies is generally two people, and these individuals are earning their peak income in their 50s. He pointed out that these high incomes are not based on “idle ownership of financial assets.” For about 9/10 of these businesses, the owners are incredibly active in daily operations.  As an example, most income is derived from providing a service, but can also be generated through personal networking, reputation and recruitment abilities of entrepreneurs.

“It’s common to wonder whether business owners grew the pie, or simply extracted more money from workers,” says Zidar. “It looks like both are important, but growing the pie may be more significant.”

Researchers wanted to understand whether the owners were operating their businesses, so they examined what happens when an owner dies or retires. In many cases, profits collapsed by more than 80%.

Zidar also said these findings exemplify what is often overlooked in discussions of income inequality. There is an entire class of wealthy Americans who are gaming the tax system, by the way money flows through in human capital income.

These finds are a wake-up call for the need to reform the business tax system, the urgent need for more skilled workers and the need for better educational opportunities to empower the next generation of innovators and entrepreneurs,

“We show that if you look and decompose this income, a lot of it comes from these pass-through businesses, and that activity more closely resembles labor than the idle rich,” concludes Zidar. “Our results suggest that educating the country’s next generation of innovators may be more important than tax incentives.”

You now know how the top .01% game the tax system.

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2SEwwfa Tyler Durden

Ahead Of Pentagon Syria Exit, Assad Tells US Proxies: Nobody Will Protect You

Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad warned on Sunday that the United States would not protect those forces inside Syria currently depending on it, a clear reference to the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) which control northeastern Syria under Pentagon protection, though without naming the group. This comes after the Trump administration reportedly plans to begin full US troop withdrawal by mid-March, with a complete exit set for April, according to defense officials cited in a prior Wall Street Journal report.  

“We say to those groups who are betting on the Americans, the Americans will not protect you… The Americans will put you in their pockets so you can be tools in the barter, and they have started with (it),” the Syrian President said while he was welcoming the heads of local government councils, as cited by Reuters.

Image source: SANA

While issuing what appeared to be a firm ultimatum, Assad demanded that all US proxies hand over their weapons to the army and join the reconciliation process while emphasizing this as the only way to “retreat from mischief.” He notably lashed out at Turkey during the speech, but at the same time held the threat of Turkish invasion over the heads of the Kurds, now bracing themselves for the power vacuum in the wake of American troop exit. 

“Nobody will protect you except your state… If you do not prepare yourselves to defend your country, you will be nothing but slaves to (Turkey),” Assad added.

Though for the past months there’s been multiple reports and substantive indications that Damascus and Syrian Kurdish (YPG) leadership are in the midst of reconciliation talks, Assad’s warning indicate that no deal has yet to be finalized. 

Simultaneously, the White House has long sought to prevent Syrian Kurdish embrace of Assad, and SDF leadership has reportedly sought guarantees of some kind of federalized system giving Kurdish territories, especially “Rojava”, a high degree of autonomy. It also just so happens that the vast majority of Syrian oil and gas fields are held in current SDF territories. 

During his speech, which comes at a time when analysts are now convinced American departure is real and imminent, Assad also reiterated his promise to “liberate every inch” of sovereign Syria as it existed before the war. “Every inch of Syria will be liberated, and any intruder is an enemy,” he said.

Also notable is that Assad referenced Turkey’s President Erdogan by calling him Ikhwani — essentially leveling the sarcastic insult that Erdogan leads the Muslim Brotherhood (or Ikhwan).

Assad lambasted Erdogan and Turkey for encroachment on Syrian sovereign territory, but interestingly did not criticize the Gulf Arab states for their role in the war, an indicator that rapprochement between Damascus and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries is fast underway

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2T088Ef Tyler Durden

Can “Zombie Deer” Disease Kill Humans? Research Suggests It Already Has

Authored by Dagny Taggart via The Organic Prepper blog,

An infectious disease expert has warned that a deadly disease found in deer could infect humans in the near future.

Often referred to as “zombie deer” disease because of the symptoms, Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) has been reported in at least 24 states in the continental United States and in two provinces in Canada as of January 2019.

But is this warning too late? Because there is an extremely similar disease that has already killed quite a few people.

And before we get further into this – some of you are already thinking that the government is trying to “scare” us. Others will say that the government is trying to “cover it up.”  But rationally, neither of these is true. It took a lot of digging to find the information and piece it all together, however, all the information is readily available on the CDC website.

Minnesota has issued a warning.

Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, recently told lawmakers that CWD should be treated as a public health issue.

That unsettling news surfaced at a hearing Thursday at the Minnesota Capitol, where a number of experts from the University of Minnesota pressed upon lawmakers that the disease should be treated as a public health issue — a major expansion of its current scope as mostly a wildlife and hunting concern.

The issue is especially pressing for Minnesota, where wildlife officials are tracking the state’s largest outbreak of CWD yet in deer in the southeast portion of the state. (source)

Osterholm (who sat on a panel of experts tracking the emergence of mad cow disease, or BSE, decades ago) issued this warning during the hearing:

“It is my best professional judgment based on my public health experience and the risk of BSE transmission to humans in the 1980s and 1990s and my extensive review and evaluation of laboratory research studies … that it is probable that human cases of CWD associated with the consumption of contaminated meat will be documented in the years ahead. It is possible that number of human cases will be substantial and will not be isolated events.” (source)

While he is aware that skeptics will accuse him of fear-mongering, Osterholm said, “If Stephen King could write an infectious disease novel, he would write about prions like this.”

There is a very similar disease that has already killed people.

He noted that for years, many public health and beef industry experts did not believe a similar disease – bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE, also known as “mad cow disease” – could infect people. In 1996, researchers found strong evidence that BSE can infect humans as a variant known as Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD).

Since 1996, more than 230 vCJD cases have been identified in 12 countries, 178 of them in the United Kingdom, 27 in France, and four in the United States. Just last fall, a case of mad cow disease was confirmed in Scotland, reports Food Safety News.

Also important to note: Hunters in Kentucky contracted a version of spongiform encephalopathy from squirrels in the 1990s.

Here’s what you need to know about “zombie deer” disease.

CWD is a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy disease found in deer, elk, moose, reindeer, and caribou. It is a progressive disease that always kills its victims.

The disease is believed to be caused by abnormal proteins called prions, which are thought to cause damage to other normal prion proteins that can be found in tissues throughout the body. They are most often found in the brain and spinal cord, leading to brain damage and development of prion diseases. Infected brain cells eventually burst, leaving behind microscopic empty spaces in the brain matter that give it a “spongy” look.

Prions are misfolded proteins that are somehow infectious (we’re still not really sure how or why) and for which we have no treatments or cures. If you were to catch one, you’d basically deteriorate over the course of several months, possibly losing the ability to speak or move, and eventually you would die. Doctors wouldn’t be able to do anything to save you. (source)

The disease is believed to spread through saliva, urine, or feces from live deer or through contact with high-risk parts such as the backbone, eyes, or spleen of harvested deer. The disease can spread through the natural movement of deer but it spreads farther and quicker when humans move the deer.

Symptoms develop slowly – sometimes taking years to appear – and include stumbling, lack of coordination, drooling, lack of fear of people, and aggression.

So far, CWD has been reported in 24 states, and the number of cases is increasing.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), CWD was first identified in captive deer in the late 1960s in Colorado and in wild deer in 1981. By the 1990s, it had been reported in surrounding areas in northern Colorado and southern Wyoming. Since 2000, the area known to be affected by CWD has increased to at least 24 states, including states in the Midwest, Southwest, and limited areas on the East Coast.

The CDC notes that it is possible CWD is occurring in other regions, but that cases have not been detected yet because some areas do not have strong animal surveillance systems.

As of January 2019, there were 251 counties in 24 states with reported CWD in free-ranging cervids. This map from the CDC is based on the best-available information from multiple sources, including state wildlife agencies and the United States Geological Survey (USGS). For a full list of states and counties with reported cases, please click here.

(source)

Yesterday it was reported that the Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries has found CWD in 26 deer in Northwest Virginia and two in Shenandoah County. They said 26 of the CWD-positive deer were harvested by hunters and showed no symptoms of the disease.

So you can’t depend on the fact that a deer doesn’t “look” sick.

Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease appears to have already killed several people in the past.

CJD has killed several people and in the cases mentioned below, the victims consumed venison and their cases progressed rapidly.

According to a report from Popular Science:

In the 1990s, three deer hunters contracted Creutzfeldt-Jakob (known as CJD or vCJD when referring to the variant caught from infected meat) when they were less than 30 years old, which raised concern, because these diseases typically take years to develop and people aren’t often diagnosed when they’re young. (source)

In a 2004 report titled Chronic Wasting Disease and Potential Transmission to Humans, the CDC described the three cases referenced above. Here is a summary of each.

Case 1 involved a 25-year-old man who reportedly died of a prion disease. He rarely hunted, but his grandfather hunted deer and elk throughout much of the 1980s and 1990s and regularly shared the venison with the family. He primarily hunted in southeastern Wyoming, around the known CWD-endemic area. “It remains unknown whether the possible exposure of the case-patient to CWD-infected venison potentially contributed to the early onset of his prion disease,” according to the CDC.

Cases 2 and 3 involved two men with CJD who were 26 and 28 years of age. They grew up in adjacent counties and became ill within several months of each other. In the first case, autopsy samples confirmed a CJD diagnosis. According to the report (which, again, was written in 2004), “The patient may have occasionally eaten venison originating from the Upper Peninsula of Michigan while away from home during his college years. However, ongoing surveillance has not detected CWD in Michigan deer.” In the second case, autopsy confirmed a prion disease diagnosis. “The patient did not hunt but may have eaten venison from Michigan once when he was 1–2 years old,” says the report.

The report from Popular Science referred to additional cases:

In the early 2000s, several more patients turned up with CJD and then several more with vague neurological symptoms that resembled prion diseases. Three men in particular all ate together at regular wild game feasts. (source)

The CDC report includes details about those cases.

Two CJD cases with a “positive history of exposure to venison obtained from the known CWD-endemic areas” are discussed. One of the patients was a 61-year-old woman who grew up in an area where this disease is known to be endemic. She ate venison harvested locally, and her autopsy confirmed CJD. The second patient was a 66-year-old man who was reported to have eaten venison from two deer harvested in a CWD-endemic area. Both of the deer he consumed tested negative for CWD, and his autopsy details were not provided.

Three cases from 2003 are also mentioned. Three men (ages 54, 63, and 66) from the same area died of CJD. They had “striking neuropathologic similarities”. The report states that “their illness may represent a new entity in the spectrum of prion disease”.

In a report titled Fatal Degenerative Neurologic Illnesses in Men Who Participated in Wild Game Feasts — Wisconsin, 2002, the CDC described the cases of the men referenced in the Popular Science report.

Case 1 involved a 66-year-old man from Wisconsin. He was a lifelong hunter who ate venison frequently. He hunted primarily in northern Wisconsin, but also at least once in Montana. He died in February 1993. The autopsy indicated subacute spongiform encephalopathy, compatible with CJD.

He hosted wild game feasts at his cabin in northern Wisconsin from 1976 until shortly before his death.

Case 2 involved a 55-year-old man from Minnesota. He was not a hunter but had a history of eating venison. He made an estimated 12 visits to the cabin where the wild game feasts referred to in Case 1 were held, but he participated in only one feast during the mid-1980s. He died in July 1999, and the autopsy demonstrated widespread subcortical spongiform lesions, consistent with CJD.

Case 3 involved a 65-year-old man from Wisconsin who died in August 1993. He had a history of eating venison and participated regularly in wild game feasts held at the cabin owned by the man referenced in Case 1. He was a lifelong hunter and hunted mostly in Wisconsin, but also in Wyoming and British Columbia. The autopsy showed symmetrical frontal lobe cerebral cortical atrophy and mild temporal lobe atrophy, but no evidence of CJD.

There are alarming geographic links between the deer cases and the human cases.

In states where deer are infected with CWD, there have been more cases of CJD in humans. And the fact that mad cow disease was passed to humans who ate the infected beef has caused the CDC to pay attention.

Wisconsin, Montana, and Wyoming are all states that now have known cases of CWD in deer.

According to a January 2019 report from the government of British Columbia, “The disease is widespread in the Canadian prairies and is moving west toward the B.C. border. The B.C. Wildlife Health Program has been monitoring for CWD since 2002 and has yet to find an infected animal in this province.”

The CDC report also includes alarming details about cases in Colorado and Wyoming (emphasis mine):

Despite the decades-long endemicity of CWD in Colorado and Wyoming, the incidence of CJD and the age distribution of CJD case-patients in these two states are similar to those seen in other parts of the United States. From 1979 to 2000, 67 CJD cases from Colorado and 7 from Wyoming were reported to the national multiple cause-of-death database. (source)

Here are is an excerpt from the 2004 CDC report conclusion:

The lack of evidence of a link between CWD transmission and unusual cases of CJD, despite several epidemiologic investigations, and the absence of an increase in CJD incidence in Colorado and Wyoming suggest that the risk, if any, of transmission of CWD to humans is low.

Although the in vitro studies indicating inefficient conversion of human prion protein by CWD-associated prions raise the possibility of low-level transmission of CWD to humans, no human cases of prion disease with strong evidence of a link with CWD have been identified. However, the transmission of BSE to humans and the resulting vCJD indicate that, provided sufficient exposure, the species barrier may not completely protect humans from animal prion diseases.

Because CWD has occurred in a limited geographic area for decades, an adequate number of people may not have been exposed to the CWD agent to result in a clinically recognizable human disease. The level and frequency of human exposure to the CWD agent may increase with the spread of CWD in the United States.

Because the number of studies seeking evidence for CWD transmission to humans is limited, more epidemiologic and laboratory studies should be conducted to monitor the possibility of such transmissions. (source)

CWD is extremely contagious

A 2017 study titled Chronic wasting disease: Emerging prions and their potential risk states that “CWD is one of the most contagious prion diseases”.

Here are a few excerpts from that study.

As the geographic distribution and case numbers of CWD are constantly growing, exposure of humans to CWD prions becomes more likely. To date, bovine spongiform encephalopathy is the only example of interspecies transmission of prion disease to humans. The potential zoonotic transmission of CWD is an alarming issue and still an open question.

Laboratory studies suggest that the risk of CWD transmission to humans is low.

These findings suggest a notable species barrier between cervids and humans; however, prion diseases are dynamic; interspecies passage of CWD can result in prion adaptation to new host species. Besides, the existence of more than one CWD strain may contribute to higher heterogeneity in disease and transmission profiles.

Although the evidence gathered so far is in favor of a low risk to transmit CWD to humans, results from in vitro studies indicated that the species barrier is not absolute. (source)

A report from Food Safety News titled ‘Surprising’ Discovery Made About Chronic Wasting Diseaseexplains the alarming findings of a 2015 study:

According to researchers at The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston (UTHealth), grass plants can bind, uptake and transport infectious prions. Why this is so important takes some understanding of what prions are.

Much smaller than bacteria, prions are single proteins that cannot be destroyed by typical “kill strategies” such as extreme heat or ultraviolet light.

“With prions, nothing like that works,” said Claudio Soto, Ph.D., a UTHealth researcher and lead author of an article about the topic published May 26, 2015, in Cell Reports.

These protein-based infectious agents cause the characteristic spongy degeneration of the brain, leading to emaciation, abnormal behavior, loss of bodily functions, and death. (source)

It gets passed through plants.

Some people reading this may think, “That’s it, I’m becoming a vegetarian.”

Not so fast. Plants aren’t safe either.

Soto’s team found, to summarize, that plants can act as a carrier of CWD because they can “uptake prions from contaminated soil and transport them to different parts of the plant”.

“Surprisingly, we found that they do bind to plants very efficiently,” Soto explained. “Even more surprisingly, plants infected with the prions were able to transmit the disease when animals were fed the contaminated plants.”

An infected animal can shed the disease a lot over a year (via urine and feces), and its decomposing body can further infect the soil and therefore the plants.

Soto warns that there is a good possibility that prions have been progressively accumulating in the environment.

“We have to be careful about the potential dangers of this,” he said. “We need to take precautions.” (source)

Getting rid of CWD is impossible.

Antibiotics do not kill CWD. Neither does cooking.

To give you an idea of just how persistent prions are: In 1985, the Colorado Division of Wildlife tried to eliminate CWD from a research facility by treating the soil with chlorine, removing the treated soil, and applying an additional chlorine treatment before letting the facility remain vacant for more than a year. Those efforts failed – they were unsuccessful in eliminating CWD from the facility.

In its conclusion, the 2004 CDC report states:

Because of the long incubation period associated with prion diseases, convincing negative results from epidemiologic and experimental laboratory studies would likely require years of follow-up. In the meantime, to minimize the risk for exposure to the CWD agent, hunters should consult with their state wildlife agencies to identify areas where CWD occurs and continue to follow advice provided by public health and wildlife agencies. (source)

Soto told Food Safety News he would agree.

He said that even though there have been no confirmed cases of infections in humans from CWD, the public should know that “it’s a possibility that needs to be explored.”

“I don’t want to scare people,” he said, “but these (CWD) prions are accumulating, and prions have a long incubation period — sometimes as long as 30 to 40 years in humans.” (source)

So with an incubation period like that, a person could be infected and not know it for decades.

How you can avoid infection with CWD prions

This doesn’t mean that you must completely avoid game, but you have to be careful.

The CDC offers some guidelines for hunters:

Hunters harvesting wild deer and elk from areas with reported CWD should check state wildlife and public health guidance to see whether testing of animals is recommended or required in a given state or region. In areas where CWD is known to be present, CDC recommends that hunters strongly consider having those animals tested before eating the meat. (source)

In addition, the agency advises hunters to avoid eating meat from deer and elk that look sick or test positive for CWD. They should wear gloves when field-dressing carcasses and minimize the handling of brain and spinal cord tissues. As a precaution, they should avoid eating deer and elk tissues known to harbor the CWD agent (e.g., brain, spinal cord, eyes, spleen, tonsils, lymph nodes) from areas where CWD has been identified.

In addition, hunters should wash their hands and instruments thoroughly after field dressing is completed. When taking the game to be processed, they should request that their animal is processed individually, without meat from other animals being added to the meat from their animal.

If hunters notice animals that are unusually thin and exhibit behavior such as having trouble walking, as well as those acting tame around humans and allowing someone to approach them, they should notify their state wildlife agency.

The CDC also states that “a negative test result does not guarantee that an individual animal is not infected with CWD, but it does make it considerably less likely and may reduce your risk of exposure to CWD.”

H/T to KS

via ZeroHedge News http://bit.ly/2SHzijK Tyler Durden

Liberty Links 2/17/19

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