WHO Names Virus ‘COVID-19’, Warns “Must Do Everything Now… Vaccine Will Take 18 Months”

WHO Names Virus ‘COVID-19’, Warns “Must Do Everything Now… Vaccine Will Take 18 Months”

Update (Feb. 11): The World Health Organization (WHO) continues to downplay media reports of drug breakthroughs against the COVID-19 outbreak.

WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said Tuesday that the first vaccine against COVID-19 “could be ready in 18 months, so we have to do everything today using available weapons to fight this virus.” 

Last week, the WHO played down media reports of a drug breakthrough against the virus after Reuters said a Chinese media outlet had reported that a research team at Zhejiang University had discovered an effective drug to treat people.

Then Sky News reported last Wednesday that a team of scientists from Imperial College London had found a breakthrough vaccine.

All of the media reports of a breakthrough served one purpose, pump the stock market.

WHO made an effort last week to squash optimism of an imminent vaccine. It said there are “no known” drug treatments.

“There are no known effective therapeutics against this 2019-nCoV and WHO recommends enrollment into a randomized controlled trial to test efficacy and safety,” WHO said in a statement last week.

And while much of the drug breakthrough optimism boosted the stock market – the latest from the WHO of no vaccine for 18 months could top tick stocks.

* * *

Markets soared on Tuesday after the Trump administration pumped out overly optimistic headlines of an early-stage trial for a coronavirus vaccine could start within the next three months. It appears “trade optimism” to save the stock market has turned to “coronavirus cure optimism.” 

The CEO of Novartis added some color on timelines of a potential vaccine for the deadly virus, which has infected over 6,000 people, with 132 deaths across China. 

Vas Narasimhan, CEO of Novartis, told CNBC on Wednesday that it could take upwards of one year to find a new vaccine, which he called the outbreak across the world “very serious.”

“The reality is, it will take over a year in my expectation to really find a new vaccine for this so, we need to really use epidemiological controls to really get this situation in a better place,” Narasimhan told CNBC’s Julianna Tatelbaum. 

Already, scientists in Australia have attempted to create a lab-grown version of coronavirus, and it could be studied to develop virus detection tests and vaccines eventually, Reuters reported

Investors appear less optimistic about the Trump administration’s short timeline of the creation of a new vaccine and are listening to experts, like Narasimhan, who gives a rather gloomy view that the world could be without a proven vaccine for one year while the virus spreads across the globe. 

We noted on Tuesday how a commercially available vaccine for the virus could “take months” to develop, but here’s the catch: it would take over a year to test on animals before the drug was fit for humans.

Maybe it’s time to buy some more N95 masks… 


Tyler Durden

Tue, 02/11/2020 – 10:51

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Rabobank: Forever “Looking Up?” – Reflections On A Blinkered (Or Schizophrenic) Market

Rabobank: Forever “Looking Up?” – Reflections On A Blinkered (Or Schizophrenic) Market

Authored by Michael Every via Rabobank,

Looking up? 

That’s certainly how equity markets are trading the virus – again. No surprises there, really.

At present, one could have a headline screaming “Killer asteroid to hit earth!” on Monday morning, and by lunch-time the equity market would be saying “Think of all the rebuilding!” 

Bond markets are not much more gloomy than they already were, however, which is still pretty damn gloomy. Indeed, it’s FX markets, with a strong/risk-off USD, where we have been seeing most of the virus impact so far, with USD/CNY in particular only holding around 7 due to what I am sure is frenetic intervention on the part of state banks to save the PBOC the effort of doing it itself.

But are things really looking up? This morning there are: officially 43,101 confirmed casesup 2,546 (or one new hospital’s worth) day-to-day, so again not the feared exponential, but also no real trend decline in what is a noisy series – unless it is being massaged, as some critics allege; this also measures how many tests are being done, as much as anything else, of course; and the accuracy of those tests, which is not 100%; more concretely, we have at least 1,108 deaths, which is past both the SARS total and the kind of psychological round number one would think an algo would notice; and of the 5,601 cases with an outcome, we have 4,043 recovered vs. that 1,108 deaths, so we are now down to a 20% mortality rate, which is good if accurate–and there are again some question-marks there–but still a level that does not suggest either public calm or supply-chain normality are anywhere close. China’s Xi Jinping was also seen yesterday in a facemask, talking about a “grim” struggle. “Think of all the rebuilding!”

Looking ‘Chinese’? That’s certainly what the market should be worrying about, of course. Indeed, just as Singapore apparently sees cases in its own central business district, and is linked to a cluster of virus cases in the UK and France, Hong Kong CEO Carrie Lam has asked the public to stay at home as much as possible after a virus outbreak in a densely-populated area: once again, the public was there long before her, but the official concern is notable. Neither development is going to be good for either economy, it should go without saying. Regardless, as Bloomberg says this morning “Asian Stocks Rise as Virus Fears Linger.”

Also looking ‘Chinese’ is the UK. Not only does it have a currency off its recent lows but way off its previous highs, and where politics drives sentiment, but we have: a push for a US trade deal that Huawei might get in the way of; a role for Huawei in the 5G network (for now….expect a pushback there); a government now legally able to quarantine people as virus preparation measures are stepped up; a Prime Minister publicly called contemptuous of the free press by a very pro-Tory newspaper; preparations for real customs and border checks with the EU in 2021; possible new taxes on the wealthy; and now a splurge on public infrastructure projects to “level up” society. Yes, not only is the HS2 high-speed rail to proceed (even if not at any kind of high speed in any kind of sense, either in construction timetable or final operating velocity), but there is a look being taken at building a 20-mile bridge from Scotland to Northern Ireland through treacherous waters and massive marine munitions dumps…“because it will save the Union.” Politics first, productivity of investment later: well, it’s worked so well for China for decades, I suppose. “Think of all the rebuilding!”

Also looking increasingly ‘Chinese’ is the Australian economy, in this particular instance it’s the at-root-it’s-all-a-leveraged-property-play parallel. One can see why the RBA is so relaxed on rates all of a sudden when its (im)moral-hazardry of spruiking the property market has worked so well. Today we saw home loans rise 4.4% m/m vs. 1.6% expected and investor loans up 2.8% vs. 2.2% in December, as everyone once again gets the message that working or running a business are not the route to comfortable retirement, but speculating on property officially is. “Think of all the buildings!”

Yet don’t think the ‘US and A’ is not also looking more and more ‘Chinese’ too. Today we get to listen to a technocrat describe how well everything is going while trying to decipher the hidden and not so hidden hints in his speech to ensure that one correctly front-runs where the state is about to pour enormous buckets of liquidity. That’s right: it’s the first day of Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony. The key issue: does the current virus give him extra momentum towards easing? If so, is it just going to be more Repo Madness? Or will the virus threat be a convenient pivot-point towards lower rates? We have, after all, seen policy easing in most of ASEAN and China already. Is that going to prove contagious?

Meanwhile, sticking with the today’s theme, we will then also have the New Hampshire Democratic Party primary – and the first question on the market’s mind is “Will it be a real vote or not?” The second question will be if we are to get a self-declared socialist winning, or if instead we get a newly-parachuted-in billionaire who made his money in the financial sector talking about the need to heal society’s ills.

Need I stress which the market would prefer? So far the 2020 campaign has out “Veep”-ed Veep, and it’s only February.


Tyler Durden

Tue, 02/11/2020 – 10:35

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Psychiatric Hospitals Can Still Force Patients to Accept Shock Treatment. One Connecuticut Patient Has Been Shocked 500 Times in Five Years

Gina Teixeira, an attorney with the Connecticut Legal Rights Project, got the call last May. A court was going to force a man to undergo shock therapy, and he wanted her help fighting the order.

He wasn’t alone. Teixeira regularly receives inquiries from Connecticut patients facing involuntary shock treatment court orders, including one client who she says has been unwillingly subjected to the shocks 500 times.

“I think it happens a lot more than people realize,” Teixeira says.

Shock therapy, also known as electroconvulsive therapy (ECT), was developed in the late 1930s as a psychiatric treatment for severe psychosis and catatonia. Patients undergoing the procedure receive jolts of electricity from electrodes placed on their temples, triggering a brain seizure and convulsions that last up to a minute. After the two Italian psychiatrists who invented the treatment reported positive results, a 1938 news headline declared “Madness Cured with Electricity.”

It soon became evident, though, that the treatment could cause severe cognitive impairment and memory loss. In a 1944 study, shock therapy recipients “described losses such as the inability to recognize friends and acquaintances” which “remained after years and appeared to be permanent.” Another study worryingly concluded that patients who improved or recovered after the seizure-inducing treatments had a “high frequency of relapse.” 

Reports subsequently emerged in the 1950s of psychiatric hospital doctors and orderlies using the novel treatment to modify the behavior of harmless and healthy patients. One woman was given shock treatment because her family was upset she had run off with her apparently “homosexual” boyfriend and “walked about carrying ‘Proust’ under her arm.” 

To counter evidence of shock therapy’s serious side effects, limited therapeutic benefits, and potential for abuse, the American Psychiatric Association (APA) partnered with shock industry lobbyists in the 1970s to persuade the public that the treatment was safe and effective. Though it took time, the public relations campaign succeeded. Prominent media outlets regularly report that today’s “safe and effective” version of electroconvulsive therapy no longer resembles the barbaric shock procedure depicted in One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest

Many recipients voluntarily consent to shock therapy, which is typically given for treatment-resistant depression, and get better. In 2008, the National Mental Health Association reported that shock treatments tripled to 100,000 a year, a figure that is frequently re-printed in other news publications. In 2016, Dr. Linda Lagemann, a former associate professor at the University of California, San Francisco, estimated that shock therapy generates $1.8 billion in costs annually, half of which are covered by Medicare.

Corresponding with shock therapy’s comeback, reports of the procedure’s devastating side effects and limited effectiveness re-appeared. A 2010 review of eight meta-analyses concluded that, because shock therapy causes persistent and permanent memory loss and a slight increased risk of death, “its use cannot be scientifically justified.” In 2018, as the result of a class-action lawsuit, ECT device maker Somatics added a warning to its instruction manual that in “rare cases, patients may experience…permanent brain damage.”

Despite such accounts, warnings and studies, many states still allow physicians to force shock therapy onto people who don’t want it. While physicians are typically required to secure court orders before forcibly shocking patients, the Minnesota City Pages has called the process “more of a bureaucratic formality than a serious deliberation.” 

 It is virtually impossible to know how many Americans are involuntarily shocked, since, besides Texas, states don’t require hospitals to report how often they administer the procedure. Likewise, medical privacy laws make it prohibitively difficult for the public to attend involuntary shock hearings.

Without proper scrutiny, patients in Connecticut are especially vulnerable to getting unnecessarily shocked. It is one of the only U.S. states that allows civil psychiatric facilities to hospitalize individuals involuntarily for an indefinite length of time, with minimal judicial oversight: Patients are entitled to a clinical review by a doctor just once a year, and only entitled to a full judicial review every two years. In early 2018, the Connecticut Legal Rights Project filed a class-action lawsuit to declare the state’s civil commitment statute unconstitutional.

The man who contacted Teixeira last May, referred to as John Doe in court records, was a patient at the Greater Bridgeport Community Mental Health Center, a Connecticut state-run civil facility that treats adults with prolonged psychiatric and co-occurring illnesses. He had never undergone shock therapy before.

On May 3, 2019, clinicians testified at Bridgeport Probate Court that it was medically necessary to forcibly shock the man. Judge Paul Ganim agreed, and he empowered the man’s parents, who act as his conservators, to permit the shock therapy for up to 45 days. (No other details from the court hearing are public, as probate mental health court records are automatically sealed.)

That’s when the patient contacted Teixeira.

“He obviously was sophisticated enough to contact me and ask me to file an appeal,” Teixeira told the Connecticut Post. “The client told me he is really scared and asked me to help him. This should not be forced on him.”

Teixeira subsequently filed for an emergency order to halt the shock treatments, citing the man’s fear of side effects, including memory loss. Connecticut Assistant Attorney General Emily Melendez, representing the mental health center, then filed a motion opposing the order. Incredibly, Melendez asserted in her motion that the patient “does not allege any facts to support that such side effects exist or that if they do, that the risk of harm in not providing this treatment outweighs whatever other harm might come from the treatment.”

To bolster her emergency order filing, Teixeira asked Connecticut’s Department of Mental Health and Addiction Services for assistance. Department officials never got back to her, and the probate court refused to postpone the procedure.

John Doe was forced to undergo his first round of shock therapy on May 17.

Teixeira was able to schedule an appeal hearing for June 3 at the Superior Court in Bridgeport. During the hearing, Melendez confessed that medical staff violated Connecticut’s shock statute.

In Connecticut, shock therapy can be administered over a patient’s objection only if the head of a hospital and two qualified physicians agree the patient is incapable of giving informed consent. In this case, Melendez conceded, only the head of the hospital and one qualified physician approved the procedure. The mental health center had improperly allowed a physician’s assistant to sign-off on the procedure in lieu of a second qualified physician.

It was a moot point, though, since the hospital had completed the medically necessary rounds of shock therapy, according to Melendez. (Melendez did not respond to multiple requests for comment.)

After Melendez’ disclosure, Superior Court Judge Barbara Bellis advised the hospital’s legal team that these “are liberty interests that are so important and the statutory protections are there for a reason.” She then sustained the patient’s appeal to halt any future shock treatments during the 45-day treatment window. 

The man has not been shocked since, according to Teixeira, though she is not authorized to say if he is still hospitalized.

Despite being appreciative of the judge’s ruling, Teixeira was furious that the court did not issue an automatic stay after she initially filed her appeal. “This what I really want to talk about, how flawed our shock statute is,” she said. “You have a probate order found to be legally defective—and it didn’t matter to my client because he was still shocked. To be deprived of that opportunity because the law does not include an automatic stay is a real problem.” 

According to Teixeira, the lack of authorization from a second qualified physician wasn’t the only defect in the shock application. The state’s shock statute requires any possible “less intrusive beneficial treatment” to be given to a patient before shock therapy is forcibly administered. Teixeira contends that the hospital violated this when it didn’t offer John Doe the opportunity to take psychiatric medication.

Teixeira is now representing Carol Levesque, a Connecticut woman fighting a shock application filed by Middletown’s Connecticut Valley Hospital. According to a complaint Teixeira filed in October, Levesque has been held against her will at the state-run psychiatric hospital since 2015. During that period, she has been shocked 500 times.

Teixeira is incensed at the hospital’s most recent shock therapy application, because the procedure has clearly not benefited Levesque. “After years of this forced shock and not having enough benefit for discharge,” Teixeira complained, “what’s the point?”

In that case, Teixeira was able to persuade a judge to grant a stay of the shock order prior to the appeal hearing. “Now she has the opportunity to challenge the order without constant threat,” Teixeira noted.

Even if Teixeira and Levesque win their appeal, the hospital can reapply for shock therapy after 45 days. “You can constantly petition for years and years, and no one is gonna tell you to stop,” Teixeira notes. “It’s a flaw in the system that doesn’t protect people.”

Since the shocks were halted, Levesque’s physical and mental health appear to have improved. “The hospital says without shock she deteriorates,” Teixeira says. “Every time I see her, she looks better.”

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Labor Market Hits A Brick Wall: Job Openings Post Biggest Two-Month Drop In History

Labor Market Hits A Brick Wall: Job Openings Post Biggest Two-Month Drop In History

While one wouldn’t know it by looking at the BLS’ jobs report, which in January showed that a whopping 225K jobs were added, the JOLTS report issued moments ago showed a vastly different picture, one which if one didn’t know better would suggest that the US labor market hit a brick wall. Why? Because according to JOLTS, traditionally Janet Yellen’s favorite labor market report, job openings in December plunged by a whopping 354K, from an downward revised 6.787MM to 6.423MM, the lowest monthly total since December 2017…

… which when combined with last month’s huge 574K drop in job openings, brings the two-month drop to a record 938K in the last two months of 2019, and suggests that even as the BLS indicates the jobs market is humming along, employers are retrenching and pulled almost 1 million jobs-wanted postings in November and December.

Is it possible that the BLS was simply caught fabricating data? Certainly: as a reminder, it was back in September 2013 that we caught the BLS lying about labor market data precisely when looking at the JOLTS report, although it is just as likely that after overrepresenting the strength of the labor market for the past two years, the BLS decided to finally catch down to reality at the end of 2019.

Commenting on the data, the BLS said that the number of job openings decreased for total private (-332,000) and the largest decreases for job openings were in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-88,000), real estate and rental and leasing (-34,000), and educational services (-34,000). The number of job openings fell in the South region

That said, there was a silver lining to today’s report: even at 6.4MM job openings this was still well above the total number of unemployed workers which in January was 5.9 million; and while December was the 22nd consecutive month in which job openings surpassed unemployed workers, the difference between the two series has shrunk to the lowest since March 2018.

Meanwhile, as job openings plunged, the number of Americans quitting their jobs has been largely unchanged for the past year, having plateaued at just around 3.5 million (the number dropped by 80K in December).

That said, there was some good news: the number of hires in December rose by 80K, and remains slightly above where the cumulative change in payrolls over the past 12 months suggests it should be.

Still, despite this offset, the record two-month plunge in job openings is a very loud, and very clear signal that something is breaking in the labor market, and if this trend continues, then the next logical escalation is a surge in layoffs as US employers retrench and force their existing workers to boost their productivity further.

Needless to say, a nearly 1 million drop in job openings in two months is not something one would see if the economy was firing on all cylinders as the stock market represents every single day.


Tyler Durden

Tue, 02/11/2020 – 10:19

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MCC Vs. AOC: Michelle Caruso-Cabrera To Run Against Ocasio-Cortez In Democratic Primary

MCC Vs. AOC: Michelle Caruso-Cabrera To Run Against Ocasio-Cortez In Democratic Primary

Is AOC about to get a taste of her own medicine?

The Democratic diva and self-proclaimed ‘Democratic Socialist’ has been out campaigning for Bernie Sanders in recent weeks as one of his top surrogates. But back home, a challenge is brewing, as Michelle Caruso-Cabrera, a popular anchor on CNBC, has filed paperwork to challenge the 29-year-old lawmaker during this year’s Democratic Primary.

Being a member of the House, AOC is obligated to defend her seat every two years. She famously knocked out Joe Crowley, the chairman of the Queens Democratic Committee and a leader in the House Democratic caucus, during a 2018 upset primary win.

MCC made the announcement on CNBC, the channel where she has worked for years. In a brief statement, she cited her Italian and Cuban heritage and longstanding roots to the Bronx and Queens district that AOC currently represents, and where MCC also lives.

One anchor on CNBC joked that viewers were calling the race the ‘rumble in the Bronx’. Readers can find her disclosure paperwork here.

Longtime CNBC anchor Larry Kudlow is now one of President Trump’s top economic advisors, and once ran for Senate in his home state of Connecticut.

The race is already growing crowded as MCC will be the 12th candidate. Here’s a rundown of who’s running in NY’s 14th district.

Democratic Party Democratic primary candidates

  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (Incumbent)
  • Fernando Cabrera
  • Michelle Caruso-Cabrera
  • James Dillon
  • Badrun Khan
  • Jose Velazquez

Republican Party Republican primary candidates

  • Jineea Butler
  • Israel Ortega Cruz
  • John Cummings
  • Miguel Hernandez
  • Scherie Murray
  • Ruth Papazian
  • Rey Solano
  • Antoine Tucker

If MCC’s coverage is any guide, she will likely attack AOC’s socialistic tendencies, while also attacking AOC’s role in driving Amazon, and more than 100,000 well-paying jobs, away from Long Island City.


Tyler Durden

Tue, 02/11/2020 – 10:03

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California Attorney General Defends Gang Database Despite Abuses by LAPD

More than a dozen officers of the Los Angeles Police Department have been caught boosting their division’s success rate by deliberately adding innocent civilians, including young children, to CalGang, a statewide database that tracks gang members. Now the California attorney general has decided to limit the damage, but not to question the database itself.

In a letter sent Monday to the Los Angeles Police Department, Attorney General Xavier Becerra promised an independent audit of the department’s CalGang entries. The entries will have to be corroborated by other evidence, such as body camera footage, and L.A. officers will have to be retrained on how to use the system. Also, if someone in Los Angeles asks to be removed from the database but is denied, a higher-ranking police officer will be required to review the decision.

In a press conference yesterday, Becerra acknowledged that those added falsely to the database could be subjected to extra police scrutiny. But he also repeatedly claimed that CalGang is a good policing tool that keeps the community safe.

A state audit of the system in 2016 painted a different picture: In addition to a mess of privacy and civil liberties problems, it found a host of inaccurate entries, failures to follow basic rules, and transparency problems. Some abuses are likely linked to racial bias, as with the case of a black man who works as a gang intervention worker who learned he had been added to the database of gang members. (NBC News details his story here.)

It’s unclear how many false records have been added to CalGang, and the number will likely remain unknown until an audit is conducted.

Watch the full press conference here.

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Georgia Can’t Compel School Speakers To Promise They Won’t Boycott Israel, Argues New Federal Lawsuit

Lawsuit seeks to overturn Georgia’s Israel boycott law. Civil rights organizations are suing in federal court on behalf of documentary filmmaker Abby Martin, who was uninvited from a scheduled speaking engagement at Georgia Southern University after refusing to sign a pledge that said she would not boycott Israel.

“The organizers were afraid my pro-Palestine activism & film Gaza Fights For Freedom would violate Georgia’s anti-BDS law,” wrote Martin on Twitter in January. BDS stands for boycott, divestment, and sanctions.

“Modeled after the global South African anti-apartheid movement, the BDS movement’s stated goal is to pressure the Israeli government to end its occupation of Palestinian territory,” the Georgia Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR-Georgia) explains.

“I will not forfeit my constitutional rights by signing this pledge,” said Martin at a press conference yesterday. 

The anti-BDS law in Georgia, passed in 2016, forbids government-run institutions in the state from contracting with people who can’t or won’t certify that they’re not boycotting companies based in Israel or Israeli-controlled settlements or companies that do business with them. Georgia was the sixth U.S. state to say so, passing the measure not long after Mike Pence, then-governor of Indiana, signed a similar bill into law in his state. As of last year, 27 states had adopted similar laws.

In Georgia, “the law applies only to state contracts worth at least $1,000 and involves no investigation or extensive paperwork,” explained the Atlanta Jewish Times back in 2017. “A potential contractor just has to sign a statement saying it does not boycott Israel.”

Of course, not everyone finds that to be such a minor thing. Asking Americans to sign some pledge of allegiance to certain goods would be weird enough if we were talking about locally made products. Georgia is asking any contractor hired by a state institution to pledge to help prop up another country’s businesses. It would be downright bizarre even if U.S. politicians didn’t regularly and publicly perform ritual displays of reverence for Israel.

The new lawsuit against the University System of Georgia, filed Monday, comes from CAIR-Georgia, CAIR Legal Defense Fund, and the Partnership for Civil Justice Fund. Last year, CAIR helped overturn an anti-BDS law in Texas. In that case, the District Court for the Western District of Texas concluded that “the First Amendment does not allow” such a law.

“By canceling a journalist’s speaking engagement on a college campus because she refused to pledge support for a foreign government, the State of Georgia has blatantly violated the First Amendment’s guarantee of freedom of speech,” CAIR-Georgia Executive Director Edward Ahmed Mitchell said in a statement yesterday. “Every American has the constitutional right to engage in political boycotts, and the State of Georgia does not have the right to punish any American for doing so.”

Earlier this year, a federal court dismissed a challenge to Arizona’s anti-BDS law, but only on procedural grounds.

First Amendment lawyers disagree over the constitutionality of these bills, however.

“Decisions not to buy or sell goods or services are generally not protected by the First Amendment,” wrote Eugene Volokh, Cornell law professor Michael C. Dorf, and Northwestern University professor Andrew M. Koppelman in a 2019 amicus brief for a case challenging Alabama’s anti-BDS law. More:

As a general matter, a decision not to do business with someone, even when it is politically motivated (and even when it is part of a broader political movement), is not protected by the First Amendment. And though people might have the First Amendment right to discriminate (or boycott) in some unusual circumstances—for instance when they refuse to participate in distributing or creating speech they disapprove of—that is a basis for a narrow as-applied challenge, not a facial one. For this reason, Ark. Code Ann. § 25-1-503 is constitutional.

More from The Volokh Conspiracy on the matter here, here, and here, and from Reason‘s Jacob Sullum here.


ELECTION 2020 

Bernie Sanders bests Joe Biden in latest poll: 

See also: Where the 2020 Democrats stand on sex work decriminalization. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D–Hawaii) told Reason:

If a consenting adult wants to engage in sex work, that is their right, and it should not be a crime. All people should have autonomy over their bodies and their labor.

Most of the other candidates have been much more equivocal or publicly silent on the issue, including Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D–Mass.) and Bernie Sanders (I–Vt.). But Sanders and Warren are sponsoring a bill to study the effects of FOSTA, which made hosting content that “facilitates prostitution” a federal crime.

“I agree we could use more research,” says Bella Robinson, sex worker and executive director of COYOTE Rhode Island. “But why would we trust the government?”

More here.


FREE MINDS

Federal housing policy is getting families evicted. The Washington Post reports on Taja Robinson, who was kicked out of her Silver Spring, Maryland, apartment for smoking cigarettes in the parking lot. The subsidized housing unit (and many others across the country) is acting in response to a U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development ban on smoking in public housing that includes any areas within 25 feet of a building.

“Banning public housing residents from smoking is unfairly discriminatory for a variety of reasons,” University of Houston law professors Dave Fagundes and Jessica L. Roberts write in a 2019 essay published in the Northwestern University Law Review. They continue:

Because a violation could lead to eviction, the policy may well push many public housing residents out onto the street, ironically worsening health outcomes. The rule also intrudes into the private lives of smokers in public housing by forbidding them from engaging in lawful conduct in the sanctity of their homes. It singles out smokers for regulation in a way that validates stigma. Finally, HUD’s smoke-free policy poses unappreciated distributional concerns, with the heaviest burdens falling on historically disadvantaged populations like the elderly, people with disabilities, certain racial and ethnic minorities, and the poor.

Read the whole essay here.


FREE MARKETS 

Trump proposes getting the Food and Drug Administration out of tobacco regulation.


QUICK HITS

  • Tom Steyer will see fellow Democratic presidential candidates’ plans to raise the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour and raise them one $22-per-hour minimum wage.
  • Virginia legislators are advancing bills to usher in marijuana decriminalization, legal casinos, online sports betting, and new gun regulations. The state may also finally remove a law criminalizing sex between unmarried people from the books.
  • Avalon condemns “the decentralization of the family” and David Brooks approves (and, of course, takes the opportunity to beat up on freedom and individualism again).
  • A New York doctor is advancing a simple test that could help explain why many miscarriages happen. Zev Williams, director of the Columbia University Fertility Center “has a patent on the method of preparing and testing samples and anticipates he will work with a commercial partner to offer it to doctors across the country,” reports NBC News. “Eventually, he hopes to further lower the cost.”

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Watch Live: Fed Chair Powell Goes To Capitol Hill

Watch Live: Fed Chair Powell Goes To Capitol Hill

Fed Chair Powell begins his two-day testimony before Congress today.

The Fed chief will answer questions from lawmakers following his prepared remarks. He’s also scheduled for a hearing before the Senate Banking Committee at 10 a.m. Wednesday as part of his semi-annual testimony to Congress.

In his prepared remarks, Powell provided a mostly positive picture of the U.S. economy but raised the specter of coronavirus’ impact on the world economy and additionally warned of slowing its liquidity bailout program.

And as far as what is to be expected, it’s anyone’s guess given that “mad” Maxine Waters is in charge… but,as Marc Chandler detailed earlier, three general issues appear to be the focus.

First is the economic impact of the coronavirus. Yesterday, both Daly (non-voter) and Harker (voter) still were emphasizing the “good place” that the US economy was in, suggesting no change in their stance. However,  Powell may be a bit more balanced and highlight the international risks, which were the basis of the argument for easing last year.

Second, Powell may discuss the Fed’s operations aimed at ensuring a smooth transmission of its policy, which has resulted in repo operations and $60 bln a month of T-bill purchases. Powell may help explain why this is not QE, and the actions have kept financial market conditions broadly stable and supportive.

Third, there may be some follow-up to comments by Vice-Chair Quarles that suggested the Fed may be open to some changes in how minimum reserves are calculated, such a shift toward average holdings rather than the end of period (year) positions.

As Rabobank’s Michael Every noted earlier, today we get to listen to a technocrat describe how well everything is going while trying to decipher the hidden and not so hidden hints in his speech to ensure that one correctly front-runs where the state is about to pour enormous buckets of liquidity. That’s right: it’s the first day of Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony. The key issue: does the current virus give him extra momentum towards easing? If so, is it just going to be more Repo Madness? Or will the virus threat be a convenient pivot-point towards lower rates? We have, after all, seen policy easing in most of ASEAN and China already. Is that going to prove contagious.

Watch Live (due to start at 1000ET):

*  *  *

Full Prepared Remarks Below:

Chairwoman Waters, Ranking Member McHenry, and other members of the Committee, I am pleased to present the Federal Reserve’s semiannual Monetary Policy Report.

My colleagues and I strongly support the goals of maximum employment and price stability that Congress has set for monetary policy. Congress has given us an important degree of independence to pursue these goals based solely on data and objective analysis. This independence brings with it an obligation to explain clearly how we pursue our goals. Today I will review the current economic situation before turning to monetary policy.

Current Economic Situation
The economic expansion is well into its 11th year, and it is the longest on record. Over the second half of last year, economic activity increased at a moderate pace and the labor market strengthened further, as the economy appeared resilient to the global headwinds that had intensified last summer. Inflation has been low and stable but has continued to run below the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) symmetric 2 percent objective.

Job gains averaged 200,000 per month in the second half of last year, and an additional 225,000 jobs were added in January. The pace of job gains has remained above what is needed to provide jobs for new workers entering the labor force, allowing the unemployment rate to move down further over the course of last year. The unemployment rate was 3.6 percent last month and has been near half-century lows for more than a year. Job openings remain plentiful. Employers are increasingly willing to hire workers with fewer skills and train them. As a result, the benefits of a strong labor market have become more widely shared. People who live and work in low- and middle-income communities are finding new opportunities. Employment gains have been broad based across all racial and ethnic groups and levels of education. Wages have been rising, particularly for lower-paying jobs.

Gross domestic product rose at a moderate rate over the second half of last year. Growth in consumer spending moderated toward the end of the year following earlier strong increases, but the fundamentals supporting household spending remain solid. Residential investment turned up in the second half, but business investment and exports were weak, largely reflecting sluggish growth abroad and trade developments. Those same factors weighed on activity at the nation’s factories, whose output declined over the first half of 2019 and has been little changed, on net, since then. The February Monetary Policy Report discusses the recent weakness in manufacturing. Some of the uncertainties around trade have diminished recently, but risks to the outlook remain. In particular, we are closely monitoring the emergence of the coronavirus, which could lead to disruptions in China that spill over to the rest of the global economy.

Inflation ran below the FOMC’s symmetric 2 percent objective throughout 2019. Over the 12 months through December, overall inflation based on the price index for personal consumption expenditures was 1.6 percent. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was also 1.6 percent. Over the next few months, we expect inflation to move closer to 2 percent, as unusually low readings from early 2019 drop out of the 12-month calculation.

The nation faces important longer-run challenges. Labor force participation by individuals in their prime working years is at its highest rate in more than a decade. However, it remains lower than in most other advanced economies, and there are troubling labor market disparities across racial and ethnic groups and across regions of the country. In addition, although it is encouraging that productivity growth, the main engine for raising wages and living standards over the longer term, has moved up recently, productivity gains have been subpar throughout this economic expansion. Finding ways to boost labor force participation and productivity growth would benefit Americans and should remain a national priority.

Monetary Policy
I will now turn to monetary policy. Over the second half of 2019, the FOMC shifted to a more accommodative stance of monetary policy to cushion the economy from weaker global growth and trade developments and to promote a faster return of inflation to our symmetric 2 percent objective. We lowered the federal funds target range at our July, September, and October meetings, bringing the current target range to 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent. At our subsequent meetings, with some uncertainties surrounding trade having diminished and amid some signs that global growth may be stabilizing, the Committee left the policy rate unchanged. The FOMC believes that the current stance of monetary policy will support continued economic growth, a strong labor market, and inflation returning to the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective. As long as incoming information about the economy remains broadly consistent with this outlook, the current stance of monetary policy will likely remain appropriate. Of course, policy is not on a preset course. If developments emerge that cause a material reassessment of our outlook, we would respond accordingly.

Taking a longer view, there has been a decline over the past quarter-century in the level of interest rates consistent with stable prices and the economy operating at its full potential. This low interest rate environment may limit the ability of central banks to reduce policy interest rates enough to support the economy during a downturn. With this concern in mind, we have been conducting a review of our monetary policy strategy, tools, and communication practices. Public engagement is at the heart of this effort. Through our Fed Listens events, we have been hearing from representatives of consumer, labor, business, community, and other groups. The February Monetary Policy Report shares some of what we have learned. The insights we have gained from these events have informed our framework discussions, as reported in the minutes of our meetings. We will share our conclusions when we finish the review, likely around the middle of the year.

The current low interest rate environment also means that it would be important for fiscal policy to help support the economy if it weakens. Putting the federal budget on a sustainable path when the economy is strong would help ensure that policymakers have the space to use fiscal policy to assist in stabilizing the economy during a downturn. A more sustainable federal budget could also support the economy’s growth over the long term.

Finally, I will briefly review our planned technical operations to implement monetary policy. The February Monetary Policy Report provides details of our operations to date. Last October, the FOMC announced a plan to purchase Treasury bills and conduct repo operations. These actions have been successful in providing an ample supply of reserves to the banking system and effective control of the federal funds rate. As our bill purchases continue to build reserves toward levels that maintain ample conditions, we intend to gradually transition away from the active use of repo operations. Also, as reserves reach durably ample levels, we intend to slow our purchases to a pace that will allow our balance sheet to grow in line with trend demand for our liabilities. All of these technical measures support the efficient and effective implementation of monetary policy. They are not intended to represent a change in the stance of monetary policy. As always, we stand ready to adjust the details of our technical operations as conditions warrant.

Thank you. I am happy to take your questions.


Tyler Durden

Tue, 02/11/2020 – 09:55

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2SlmPAR Tyler Durden

“TOTAL RACIST”: Controversy Erupts Over Viral Clip Of Mike Bloomberg Extolling Virtues Of ‘Throwing Minority Kids Against Wall’

“TOTAL RACIST”: Controversy Erupts Over Viral Clip Of Mike Bloomberg Extolling Virtues Of ‘Throwing Minority Kids Against Wall’

A recently unearthed clip from 2015 featuring Mike Bloomberg defending “stop and frisk” has gone viral, after podcaster Benjamin Dixon unearthed audio of the former three-term NYC mayor telling the Aspen Institute that the program targeted minority “kids” who must be thrown “up against the wall” in order to disarm them.

The Aspen Institute says that Bloomberg representatives begged them not to distribute footage of his appearance at the time.

Screenshot

Ninety-five percent of murders- murderers and murder victims fit one M.O. You can just take a description, Xerox it, and pass it out to all the cops,” said Bloomberg. “They are male, minorities, 16-25. That’s true in New York, that’s true in virtually every city (inaudible). And that’s where the real crime is. You’ve got to get the guns out of the hands of people that are getting killed.”

Bloomberg then said that urban crime-fighting requires that cities “spend the money” to “put a lot of cops on the streets,” which explains why minorities are targeted more heavily for petty crimes.

So one of the unintended consequences is people say, ‘Oh my God, you are arresting kids for marijuana that are all minorities.’ Yes, that’s true. Why? Because we put all the cops in minority neighborhoods,” Bloomberg is heard saying on the recording. “Yes, that’s true. Why do we do it? Because that’s where all the crime is. And the way you get the guns out of the kids’ hands is to throw them up against the wall and frisk them… And then they start… ‘Oh I don’t want to get caught.’ So they don’t bring the gun. They still have a gun, but they leave it at home.”

In 2013 Bloomberg said he thought “we disproportionately stop whites too much and minorities too little.”

Reactions to the clip on the left do not bode well for the Democratic presidential candidate.

Bernie Sanders’ national co-chair, Nina Turner, amplified Dixon’s tweet on Monday evening, along with several other minority influencers.

President Trump tweeted – then deleted, the viral clip on Tuesday, calling Bloomberg a “TOTAL RACIST.”

Meanwhile, a clip of former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) confusing ‘dark money’ with ‘black money’ and then awkwardly going with it is a must-see.


Tyler Durden

Tue, 02/11/2020 – 09:35

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2Sfd6vA Tyler Durden

California Attorney General Defends Gang Database Despite Abuses by LAPD

More than a dozen officers of the Los Angeles Police Department have been caught boosting their division’s success rate by deliberately adding innocent civilians, including young children, to CalGang, a statewide database that tracks gang members. Now the California attorney general has decided to limit the damage, but not to question the database itself.

In a letter sent Monday to the Los Angeles Police Department, Attorney General Xavier Becerra promised an independent audit of the department’s CalGang entries. The entries will have to be corroborated by other evidence, such as body camera footage, and L.A. officers will have to be retrained on how to use the system. Also, if someone in Los Angeles asks to be removed from the database but is denied, a higher-ranking police officer will be required to review the decision.

In a press conference yesterday, Becerra acknowledged that those added falsely to the database could be subjected to extra police scrutiny. But he also repeatedly claimed that CalGang is a good policing tool that keeps the community safe.

A state audit of the system in 2016 painted a different picture: In addition to a mess of privacy and civil liberties problems, it found a host of inaccurate entries, failures to follow basic rules, and transparency problems. Some abuses are likely linked to racial bias, as with the case of a black man who works as a gang intervention worker who learned he had been added to the database of gang members. (NBC News details his story here.)

It’s unclear how many false records have been added to CalGang, and the number will likely remain unknown until an audit is conducted.

Watch the full press conference here.

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