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Authored by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,

The news still isn’t the news, and I’m getting afraid it never will be again, because ‘not the news’ just simply sells so much better than plain old real events…

Maria Butina suddenly popped back into the public eye, because she was either charged with something or confessed to it. And I’m thinking, excuse me, but that poor girl has been kept in isolation for how long now? And for what reason exactly?

I vividly remember thinking that when she first became ‘news’ for ‘infiltrating’ the NRA, for which there were plenty cute pictures taken, I remember thinking she would have been 22 or 23 years old when as a super- devious Russian redhead she allegedly penetrated the trillion dollar NRA, and the trillion dollar Republican Party, and the Trump campaign, which according to some people is now worth negative $1 trillion.

If any of said organizations allow for a 22-year old to take all of their most secret and damning secrets and send them to her alleged puppet master Vladimir Vladimirovich, I say they deserve everything they’re getting. But it IS the sort of thing that if you want to report it like it’s actual news, you sure need to be convincing, you need proof, that sort of thing, not the anti-Putin innuendo US media rely on as their main standard today. Butina with no proof is just a nice by now 30-year old girl who happens to be Russian.

As for the Trump campaign having a negative $1 trillion value, I derive that from all the people who’ve once again, after a handful Mueller tidbits, started saying the Donald will be impeached any moment now, any many around him will go to jail for decades. You know, I can read too, and that’s not what I see. Much of what I see comes down to the reasoning that Trump has not yet been impeached as President because .. he is the President.

Yes, that is pretty funny, but it’s not humor beyond my abilities, and I’m not a comedian by trade. We’re still, even after those Mueller bits, stuck with Papadopoulos who’s been framed and went to jail for 2 weeks for it (shame on Mueller for that, deep deep shame!), there’s Cohen who lost his tracks in between lying for Trump and lying about Trump, and Manafort, a thirteenth wheel on a wagon of which there are dozens in DC, fixers and handlers.

You tell me why Manafort faces years in jail while Rahm Emanuel became mayor of Chicago. But if you’d actually want to explain, I suggest you prepare well, maybe talk to a few lawyers in the process. Washington attracts shady characters like dung beetles to horse shit and honey bees to Mountain Dew, and only a special counsel would ever think of picking them off one by one if he can’t find any of the actual crimes that he was appointed for to find. Cue: Rahm Emanuel.

Meantime my pal in arms Jim Kunstler thinks Michael Flynn is laying low as Mueller whoops his ass because he can, only to hit back at Mueller as soon as he’s freed from what are at best shaky allegations. Talking to a Russian is not a crime, not even, or even especially, when you’re the security adviser to the next president.

Michael Flynn’s real suspicious job was advising Turkey on security issues, but then that’s not what Mueller targeted him for. So yeah, Let Flynn rise. And once again, don’t let’s forget that he said when the whole circus began, that he saw no way he could defend himself against anything Mueller might have thrown at him, that his entire family was on the verge of bankruptcy.

“But you talked to a Russian!” say the news media. Cue mushroom clouds in the remote background. But don’t you see, Trump is a criminal with decades of crimes under his belt, and all of his family are too! Look, I don’t know these people, and I’m fine not knowing them, not my cup of tea, but how much time did any of them spend behind bars so far?

And now they would have to go to jail just because Donald was elected president and the DOJ appointed a friendly ex-FBO head special counsel on the basis of a dossier paid for by his political opponents? To what extent does that spell justice to you? Yes, feel free to cue Rahm Emanuel again.

See, if certain people can be sent to jail because they rise too high in certain circles that don’t want them to disturb the power inherent in their sphere, while other operatives from the exact same mold though perhaps another political affiliation, are nominated to lofty and lucrative careers and positions, isn’t there something awry?

Are any of them perfectly innocent? Hell no, but them if they were, they wouldn’t be in the positions they’re in, the very positions that allow Robert Mueller to target them. From that point of view, it obvious it’s just a little power game played out in front of your eyes, you who have nothing to do with it but think you’re supposed to have an opinion on it.

Is Donald Trump a worse and bigger criminal than George H.W. Bush was? One half of America can answer that in no time flat. The other is thinking they wouldn’t be so sure. How many people has the Donald condemned to death so far? And he’s already about half way through the time Bush41 spent in the White House.

Perhaps it’s not about who’s a criminal, but about who’s the prosecutor.

And with Mueller’s role in the sordid Whitey Bulger tale, and his even more sordid testimony in the Iraq WMD fantasies that led to millions of legalized murders celebrated as victory by both Washington and the US media, which kettle is blaming which pot here?

But hey, I’m ready to be corrected. And it’s by no means just the US that feels twisted these days, either. How about French president Emmanuel Macron, who hadn’t addressed his people live for 10-12 days as the Yellow Vests protests just got worse and more violent by the day, and then yesterday decided to make his long awaited response to them through a pre-recorded video? Honestly, how far removed from reality can one be?

The only answer Macron has to the thousands of people who want him out, and who have been willing to express that opinion in 4 consecutive weekends, is money. He thinks if he gives them €100 a month extra, and some tax breaks, they’ll let them continue on his little Napoleon trip. Well, if they do, we’ll know who they are. But are they? I don’t think Macron counts on that.

And then, as Macron increasingly retreats into his little palace(s), cue Marie Antoinette, only to communicate with the unwashed masses who want him gone through pre-scripted and recorded promises of crumbs off his table in exchange for no power at all, British PM Theresa May reacts to her latest and ostensibly worst -though it’s hard to keep track- defeat by … fleeing the country.

That’s how its ‘leaders’ rule Europe these days. Angela Merkel says she’s gone, though she wants to be Chancellor until 2021 (that way no-one can hold her responsible for anything), Theresa May hops on a plane to Europe to grovel some hopelessly more in her already defeated stance.

And Macron has his servants shove crumbs off his table, a gesture that still costs him more than everything Salvini and Di Maio wanted to do in Italy which got him whistled down by Brussels. C’mon, who still believes in the EU? Everyone’s running away from it.

If Macron must hide from his own French people, how can he reform the EU? If May must flee the UK and go to the EU to get a Brexit deal, what’s her authority back home where 50% voted against that same EU?

And if Merkel can only remain in charge by relinquishing her power, who exactly’s going to run Europe? It’s kind of like the same question as for the US. Who’s going to run it? Not Trump, if Mueller and the Democrats have any say although they lost the election. Not Hillary, says about everyone else.

We all tend to think that these things are normal and eternal. Just politics. But all the usual suspects appear to be under siege. In Europe, France, UK, Germany are shaking heavily. Italy’s already overboard. That’s the biggest 4 EU members. That’s the EU. No certainties, no future, though the EU itself will never admit it, and instead just push for more EU.

And what’s certain politically in the US anymore? Trump has eviscerated the entire GOP, and I’m not saying that’s a bad thing. The Democrats killed off Bernie Sanders to allow Hillary to continue her dead before arrival power grab. She came she saw she lost.

My point, I think, is that political strongholds are being defeated everywhere at the same time. And when that happens, there’s always a reason for it. I think that reason can be found in the fact that the global economy is rumbling and crumbling as we speak, with politics and economics acting as precursors for one and other.

Like, Macron can only save his political ass by violating the EU budget terms he just chided Italy for. Merkel can only save her legacy by creating a situation she’s no longer responsible for. And Theresa May would be well advised, now that she’s on the continent, to simply stay there and let Britain figure things out without her.

The US won’t and can’t be so lucky. We’re still up for much more, marathon more, of Trump vs Mueller, and there will be many more courts and judges who have to speak on all of it before there’s anything even remotely resembling a conclusion. Because the whole Mueller circus -reluctantly- threatens to open up a Pandora swamp that’s been DC’s lifeblood forever.

Yeah, you got your Flynn and Manafort, but you also got your Podesta brothers. Yeah, there’s the Trump Foundation, but there’s also the Clinton Foundation, and Uranium One. Who’s worse? Good one!

Both things should be investigated, it shouldn’t just be Trump and Mueller, Hillary and the DNC and Comey etc etc also must be under the microscope. Or America will forever lose its faith in democracy. Not that there’s much of it left, mind you, but hey, at the very least it’s the thought that counts.

Bottom line: it all appears to be about local, domestic, national politics, but don’t be deceived: the global economy is tanking, and all of the political mayhem on all these levels is just a derivative of that. The dinosaurs want to live another day.

None of which is going to make your situation any better, but who knows, you just might feel better about it for a bit. Until you don’t.

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When Congress passed (and President Trump signed) a bill to dole out tax breaks to investors financing projects in designated “opportunity zones,” we’re not sure this is what they had in mind.

According to Bloomberg, Former Trump Communications Director Anthony Scaramucci is taking advantage of the tax breaks to cash in on the “gentrification boom” in Oakland, Calif. by building what he describes as a “swank hotel” on the site of a now-closed gas station. Scaramucci, who is launching a REIT to invest in several projects (the hotel is one of the first), described the project thusly during a call with possible investors.

When U.S. lawmakers enacted a new tax break to help low-income communities last year, backers said it would lift up some of the most distressed parts of the country.

But that wasn’t the pitch former White House spokesman Anthony Scaramucci used on Tuesday to recruit investors for a real estate investment trust that will seek to claim the tax incentives by investing in some of the nation’s newly created “opportunity zones.” Here’s how he described one of the REIT’s first projects, a Moxy Hotel on the site of a gas station in Oakland, during a conference call with potential clients.

“For those of you who have yet to go to Oakland, California, or that part of the Bay Area, I can tell you that it’s fully gentrifying. Oakland is effectively becoming the Brooklyn Heights of San Francisco,” Scaramucci said. “We think we’re going to be building a swank, boutique hotel there that’s going to create excessive economic rents for the REIT.”

The Mooch’s project appears to validate criticisms from non-profit groups who have questioned whether some of the eligible urban communities included in the bill (Amazon’s Queens headquarters will sit inside one) truly stand to benefit from these incentives. Some have even argued that the handouts to investors will only accelerate the displacement of low-income residents (as gentrification has been known to do). Swaths of New York City, Los Angeles and Seattle have also been targeted for incentives. Though, to be fair, many of the rural areas affected by these “opportunity zones” aren’t gentrifying (in fact, they’re most likely facing the opposite of gentrification as anybody who can leaves for a part of the country with a better economy).

And the Mooch is also planning another project near South Carolina’s Port of Savannagh that could create 1,000 jobs by building a warehouse and logistics facility.

And as we have pointed out in the past, if you think gentrification is such a bad thing, keep in mind: The opposite is much worse.

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Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

Market analyst and financial guru Peter Schiff says that the United States economy is headed for a disaster.  In a recent interview, Schiff said that when the dollar goes away as a reserve currency, so will the American standard of living.

Schiff says the U.S. is flexing more muscle than it has.  After the arrest of Huawei chief financial officer, Meng Wanzhou, a Chinese businessman who is accused of violating U.S. sanction laws, the Chinese are already planning economically destructive ways to reduce the dollar’s influence and power.

“The dollar, having the reserve currency, that status is in jeopardy. And I don’t think the world likes giving America this kind of power that we can impose our own rules and demand that the entire world live by it. 

So, I think this has a much bigger and broader ramifications other than what’s going on in the stock market today. I think long-term, this is going to undermine the dollar and its role as a reserve currency. And when that goes, so does the American standard of living because it’s going to collapse.” –Peter Schiff

Schiff added that he thinks China is in a much better position than many are willing to admit.

“People think we have the upper hand because we have this huge trade deficit with China. But I think it’s the other way. I think the fact that they supply us with all this merchandise that our economy needs, and the fact that they hold a lot of our bonds and continue to lend us a lot of money so we can live beyond our means, they’re the ones, I think, that call the tunes and we have to dance to it.” –Peter Schiff

There is a growing movement around the world to create alternatives to the global dollar system. The Russians have developed a money transfer system that could one day compete with SWIFT, and even the Europeans have announced plans to develop a special payment channel to circumvent U.S. economic sanctions and facilitate trade with Iran.

When RT‘s host told Schiff that China was “wobbly” right now, Schiff said that the U.S. economy isn’t exactly rock solid, despite the media’s talking heads declaring it as such.

“I was listening to the broadcast before I came in and you talked about how the U.S. economy was sailing along. It wasn’t sailing anywhere. It was blowing up like a gigantic bubble. That’s what was happening. And now the air is coming out. We are headed for a much worse financial crisis than the one we experienced in ’08, and we are headed for a much greater recession than the one we lived through following that crisis – the one we call the ‘Great Recession.’ And what’s going to make it so much worse is it’s going to be inflationary. Consumer prices are going to be going up as the economy is going down.” –Peter Schiff

But that’s not even the worst news. Because of all of the problems being underscored by so many, the collapse of the dollar and the American standard of living that will follow aren’t even a concern for most. But the bubble is bursting, according to Schiff, and the market will go so much lower.

“This is a bear market. That’s why the market went down. If it wasn’t that, they would have found another excuse. If we were in a bull market, I think the market would have shrugged it off. So, we’re going lower.”

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Two groups of Central American migrants delivered a list of demands to the US Consulate in Tijuana in Tuesday, with one group demanding to be let into the United States, or be paid $50,000 each to go home, according to the San Diego Union Tribune. 

The first group demanding action, numbering about 100, arrived at the U.S. Consulate at about 11 am Tuesday. The migrants said they were asking that the Trump Administration pay them $50,000 each or allow them into the U.S.

When asked how the group came up with the $50,000 figure, organizer Alfonso Guerrero Ulloa of Honduras, said they chose that number as a group. –SD Union Tribune

“It may seem like a lot of money to you,” said Ulloa. “But it is a small sum compared to everything the United States has stolen from Honduras,” referencing American intervention in Central America. 

The group gave the US Consulate 72 hours to respond, however they have not decided on a course of action if their demands are not met. 

“I don’t know, we will decide as a group,” Ulloa said, defiantly. 

The second caravan group of around 50 migrants delivered a letter to the Consulate around 1:20 p.m., and asked for the US to speed up the asylum process to 300 asylum seekers per day at the San Ysidro Port of Entry. The border crossing currently processes between 40 and 100 asylum seekers per day – a pace which pro-migrant groups have said is too slow and violates American and international laws which call for an immediate process. 

“In the meantime, families, women and children who have fled our countries continue to suffer and the civil society of Tijuana continue to be forces to confront this humanitarian crisis, a refugee crisis caused in great part by decades of U.S. intervention in Central America,” reads the letter. 

15 or so of the migrants who delivered the second letter had participated in an unsuccessful hunger strike several weeks ago. 

Representatives from the second group met with Mexican immigration officials in Tijuana. The migrants asked Mexican officials to stop working with the municipal police in deporting caravan members.

Migrants thought the number of deportations and voluntary repatriations is a reflection of their precarious situation in Tijuana.

“A lot of people are leaving because there is no solution here,” said Douglas Matute, 38, of Tijuana. “We thought they would let us in. But Trump sent the military instead of social workers.” –SD Union Tribune

Caravan member Xochtil Castillo told the Tribune that she has not been given a time frame for when the US will respond. 

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President Trump still does not have a new chief of staff, but at least he now has a green light to hand out bailouts and subsidies to America’s farmers.

On Wednesday, the House passed an $867 billion farm bill to help those workers in the agricultural industry, sending the legislation to President Trump for a signature. The measure easily passed with a 369-47 vote. The legislation, which previously passed the Senate in an 87-13 vote on Tuesday, expands farm subsidies and according to The Hill, includes language legalizing hemp production.

The twice-a-decade legislation provides a safety net for farmers hit with unexpected weather or by tariffs, as well as to low-income Americans struggling to feed themselves and their families. According to the NYT, it is one of the most politically sensitive pieces of legislation Congress passes, balancing the demands of urban legislators hoping to maintain or increase funding for nutrition programs and rural lawmakers seeking to protect farmers, a divide brought into sharp relief this year as negotiations continued months after the previous bill’s Sept. 30 expiration date.

While the bill also provides funding for farmers markets and programs for organic farmers as well as authorizes funding for nutrition programs over the next five years, it did not include an earlier provision aimed at placing stronger work requirements for food stamps to the dismay of conservatives. Democrats, who will have a majority in the House starting in January, strongly opposed the provision — which received strong support from House Republicans and President Trump — arguing the change would be detrimental to the safety net relied upon by low-income earners.

Lawmakers passed the legislation following months of negotiations, with Congress allowing the current farm bill to lapse on Sept. 30 after struggling to come to a consensus over changes to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP).

But while stronger work requirements did not make it into the final text, the bill does make some changes to the SNAP program. Under the legislation, an interstate data system would be established to prevent multiple states from issuing SNAP benefits to the same individual simultaneously.

The bill only narrowly advanced past a rules vote earlier in the day after language was tucked into a procedural rule preventing for the rest of the year a floor vote on any war powers resolution limiting the U.S. involvement in Yemen. The move sparked backlash from a number of lawmakers. Democratic Rep. Jim McGovern blasted it, urging his colleagues to vote against the rule ahead of it coming to the floor.

“Mr. Speaker, I wanted to be able to vote for this rule today since I said I was going to support the underlying legislation, but my Republican friends screwed it up again,” McGovern said during floor debate. “Because tucked inside this rule is language that turns off fast-track procedures for all Yemen resolutions through the end of this Congress. That’s right — the Republican leadership has declared that the worst humanitarian conflict in the world, where the U.N. has just announced famine is taking place due to the war, is not worth the time and attention of the people’s House.”

Lawmakers included the provision as the Senate appeared poised Wednesday to approve a resolution using the War Powers Act to force a withdrawal of U.S. troops in or “affecting” Yemen within 30 days unless they are fighting Al Qaeda.

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Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

One of the most brilliant businessmen of our time decided to do nothing.

In 1997, after being kicked out of his own company, Steve Jobs took back the reins of Apple.

At the time, Apple had less than 4% of the personal computer market. And the market didn’t think Apple could do anything more than corner its little niche (while Windows/Intel maintained the lion’s share).

Business professor Richard Rumelt spoke to Jobs in the summer of 1998… He parroted the belief of the time…

“Steve, this turnaround at Apple has been impressive. But everything we know about the PC business says that Apple cannot really push beyond a small niche position. The network effects are just too strong to upset the Wintel standard. So what are you trying to do in the longer term? What is the strategy?”

Jobs answer was unexpected, but simple…

“I am going to wait for the next big thing.”

Jobs knew there wasn’t anything compelling at the time.

One of the greatest visionaries of our time, didn’t try to force a strategy or BS Rumelt with business school jargon about “sticking to Apple’s core competencies” or “improving margins through synergies”…

He just waited until he spotted the next BIG opportunity.

At the time, in the late 90’s, the PC market was changing rapidly. And Jobs knew there would be major, technological advances that he could capitalize on… he had already successfully done it with the Apple II, the Macintosh and at Pixar.

And only two years after Jobs decided to “wait for the next big thing,” he introduced the iPod, which revolutionized the music industry. Then he did it again with the iPhone. The rest is history…

The result of Jobs’ do-nothing strategy pushed Apple to become the first publicly traded company with a $1 trillion valuation.

I’m telling you this story because, often times, in both business and investing, the best strategy is to simply do nothing.

Warren Buffett, the greatest investor in history, is a strong adherent to that strategy.

Buffett says that if every investor was given a punch card with 20 slots, representing the 20 investments you could make in your lifetime, their results would no doubt improve.

It’s great advice. And we’ve been saying the same thing for awhile now.

We work very hard for our money. And it makes sense to treat it with great care.

If you don’t see a compelling investment, there’s no need to force it. Sometimes the best thing is to do nothing.

The markets are crazy today. Almost every asset is at or near an all-time high (measured by the CAPE ratio, price-to-revenue, total stock market to GDP, you name it…).

It’s pretty clear things are either a top, or they’re forming a top.

Nobody has a crystal ball, but in the absence of any really compelling opportunities, it makes sense to sit on the sidelines.

And it turns out, you may not even be giving up that much return by doing so…

There was a really interesting study published by Arizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder.

Bessembinder looked at the performance of publicly traded companies over the past 92 years. There were plenty of ups and downs over that period.

He wanted to see if buying and holding stocks performed any better than owning one-month Treasury bills.

The result is pretty shocking…

He found that only 4% of listed companies were responsible for 100% of the net gain for the entire stock market.

The other 96% performed just as well as one-month Treasury bills.

So over the past 92 years, you could get the same return as you would get from 96% of all listed companies by just holding T-bills.

As much as I begrudge loaning the federal government any money, it’s certainly safe to say that T-bills are one of the most liquid and least volatile assets in the world. It’s a cash equivalent.

I’m not sure if the government has the ability to repay its 30-year bonds. But I’m pretty sure Trump won’t default in the next 28 days.

And, while you’re waiting for the next big thing, you can still earn 2.25% in one of the world’s safest assets.

That makes a lot of sense to me.

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Stocks ended higher but well off the highs as an apparently massive concession from China (shifting its Vision 2025 plan) in the trade war and another win for Trump with huge soybean purchases from China, were hurt by Cohen, and The National Enquirer disclosures.

Chinese stocks were unable to hold on to Tuesday’s gain overnight and remain in the red on the week…

 

Europe is fixed apparently (conveniently timed ahead of ECB) as Italy folded on its budget battle with Brussels…

 

Which sent Italian yields back below 3.00%…

 

In the US, markets pumped and dumped again, exuberant at China headlines then – having run the high stops from yesterday – tumbling after Trump hush-money headlines hit…Pumps at China Open, EU Open, and US Open, and dump on Trump

 

On the cash side, stocks ended green but it sure didn’t feel good…

All US Majors closed below their open at the lows…

 

Markets are extremely technical right now…

And CTAs remain short – S&P closed above the key 2,666 pivot level…

US Markets started strong and accelerated as yet another “massive short squeeze” sparked buying in the megatech stocks to lift all major markets…

 

Banks managed gains on the day (breaking a 5 day losing streak)- but almost gave it all back…

 

Treasury Yields were higher across the complex today, pushing 30Y yields just positive on the week…

 

10Y Yields are back to the Bush funeral close levels…

 

The Dollar Index slipped lower today, back to pre-payrolls levels…

 

As the Yuan rallied notably…

 

The Mexican Peso rallied up to 20/USD and failed once again…

 

And Cable sold off after the May confidence vote after rallying hard all day…

 

Ugly end to the day in crude (Iran) but silver soared as the dollar faded…

 

WTI slipped back to a $50 handle after inventory data and Iran OPEC chatters spoiled the overnight gains…

 

Silver surged to 6-week highs (outperforming gold)…

 

Silver outperformed Gold – back below the key 85x ratio…

 

Finally, we note that Dec rate-hike odds dropped very marginally today to 72%…

And one thing has changed for sure…

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