WTI Holds Below $68 After Surprise Crude Inventory Build

WTI has extended its losses since last night’s surprise API-reported crude inventory build., and DOE confirmed with a surprise 3.8mm bbl inventory build and while WTI tried to rally (smaller build than API), the jump stalled at $68.00…

 

API

  • Crude +5.59mm  (-3mm exp)

  • Cushing -930k (-500k exp)

  • Gasoline -791k

  • Distillates +2.89mm

DOE

  • Crude  +3.803mm (-3mm exp, -850k whisper)

  • Cushing -1.338mm (-500k exp)

  • Gasoline -2.536mm (-2mm exp)

  • Distillates  -101k (+500k exp)

So another surprise build – not a seasonal norm – but smaller than API-reported…

 

US crude production dipped on the week…

NOTE: As Erik Townsend pointed out, EIA changed the rules June 1st – now they round to the nearest 100k bbl. So the week-to-week production data is now next to worthless. The reason it LOOKED LIKE a ‘surge’ of 100k bbl last week is because that was from prior weeks (reported as zero). Each time is crosses the half-way point, they bump the official number up 100k.

WTI traded below $68 ahead of the DOE data, and kneejerked up to 68 the figure on the print…

“Oil bulls have been left battered and bruised,” said Stephen Brennock, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates Ltd. in London.

“The rebalancing paused abruptly last week” as inventories likely increased, while “downside risks for the global economy and therefore oil demand growth prospects remained alive and well.”

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Jay Austin, Tiny House Innovator, Killed in Attack Claimed by ISIS

Jay Austin, 29, was killed along with his girlfriend and two others while cycling across Tajikistan. ISIS has claimed credit for the attacks. Austin was the eponymous subject of Jay Austin’s Beautiful, Illegal Tiny House, a video I produced for Reason in 2014.

According to the U.S. embassy in Tajikistan, a car slammed into a group of seven cyclists. Assailants exited the car and stabbed and shot the survivors. Three other cyclists were also injured. Euronews published amateur video that purports to show the attack.

Authorities tracked down the car during a search operation. After a chase, one suspect was arrested and four were killed. The U.S. embassy praised the swift response by the Tajik government.

I found Austin a pleasure to interview and I admired his independent ways. When I first met him in 2014, he had been working at the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) for four years. He understood the nuts and bolts of housing policy and harbored a strong sense of disenchantment with the federal bureaucracy, calling public housing “a failed experiment” and HUD “The Death Star.”

Austin resisted HUD’s stodgy, institutional culture. He wore chucks and jeans at the office, in defiance of the standard suit and tie worn by other federal employees. “I’m going to be myself or I’m not going to work here,” he said he told his employer. They kept him on.

A few months after meeting him, Austin began traveling, taking leaves of absence for months at a time. Two years after that, he quit HUD, leaving behind the 145-square-foot tiny house he built and the community of tiny houses he co-founded to become a full-time traveler. He lived frugally, often backpacking alone through remote parts of the globe, and he blogged and Instagrammed his adventures enthusiastically.

“Everyone should try it at some point in their life,” Austin told me while sipping his favorite St. Germain cocktail in the hot tub behind his tiny house on a snowy winter’s day. “A month, a half-year, a week without a structure, without a stable place to call home.”

Austin was keenly aware how his upbringing in foster care shaped his outlook on life. He learned self sufficiency at an early age; by the time he was in middle school, he felt like an adult. “As a ward of the state,” he said, “I was an inherent non-conformist.”

Jay Austin, you are missed.

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‘Anonymous’ Greece Takes Down Government Website Over Athens Fire Disaster Response

Cyber group Anonymous Greece have brought down the website of Greek government over the dozens of victims in the Athens wildfires. Access to the website “government.gr” was denied for a period of time and showed “Forbidden.”

As KeepTalkingGreece.com reports, in a post on their Facebook page, Anonymous Greece sent their own message to the disaster. Expressing condolences for the victims, the group blamed the government for the unfair death of  more than 90 people. “Responsibility lies on the government that remained idle at the time of disaster and did not inform the citizens letting them burn alive,” the group argued.

“It is obvious that nobody would have died had the state reacted in time. People didn’t know the fire was approaching and we came to the point to mourn more than 90 dead families and children,” the message read.

The group claimed that “that was the goal” of the government.

The group also criticized the attitude of the Church and especially Bishop Ieremias who claimed three days after the tragedy that the people who died in the fires “with their death they cleaned their sins.”

“Dear Church, instead of offering help to the fire-stricken people you started accusing the citizens. ‘They were burned because of their sins’. What sins did the twin angels have?” the group notes with reference to the 9-year-old twin girls who died in the fires.

“Close to God is someone who offers to his fellow man and helps as much as possible for a better world. Who loves and offers support. You are just  pawns of the state, “the group concluded its message.

The message was uploaded on Sunday evening, the government website was down on Monday afternoon. The group page on Facebook has been closed down, notes newsit.

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US Manufacturing PMI Slumps To Weakest In 2018 As Prices Surge, Orders Tumble

After China’s Manufacturing PMI tumbled to 8mo lows overnight (joining Japan in its demise to 13mo lows), US Manufacturing PMI for July has not been weaker since Dec 2017.

Markit’s Manufacturing PMI signals stagflation with output prices at their highest since June 2011, production slide, and supplier delivery times fall to a record low.

And after decoupling from reality in the last two months, ISM Manufacturing tumbled back to ‘hard data’ at 58.1 (dramatically below expectations)…

ISM’s survey suggests prices paid and new orders dropped in July…

ISM New Orders at their weakest since May 2017…

All ISM respondents can talk about is tariffs…

“Global demand is still strong. Working on contingency plans for the Chinese tariffs. We will probably onshore most of that material. Labor availability is becoming an issue.” (Computer & Electronic Products)

“As a result of new tariffs on materials to/from China, we are taking measures to move impacted materials ahead of effective dates, which in some cases is resulting in holding higher inventories.” (Chemical Products)

“Reviewing the business case for importing manufactured parts from China, as new tariffs will lead to increased costs that we will pass along to our domestic customers.” (Transportation Equipment)

“The steel tariffs are a concern to us. We have already seen steel prices increase due to the threat of the tariffs and are seeing kickback from our customers due to the higher prices. We are concerned that the end customer will go to off shore to purchase the finished product.” (Fabricated Metal Products) 

“Tariffs are [resulting in] customs inspection-time increases on imported raw materials from China. Logistics seems to be improving, but we are seeing a [continuing] tight chemical bulk tanker market.” (Plastics & Rubber Products)  

“Our customer demand is high, but supply of aluminum is tight. Also, tariffs are negatively affecting our bottom line, as we are unable to pass increases to all of our customers. Plus, we are seeing increases in our construction costs because of the steel price increases. Labor market is extremely tight for professional personnel, plant technicians and support associates.” (Primary Metals)  

“The so-called trade war is now taking its toll on business activity, resulting in substantial reductions to new export orders. China has all but stopped taking orders, causing inventories to build up in the U.S. Domestic business is steady. However, it is too small to carry the load that export markets have retreated from. As a result, we will be meeting as a corporation next week to recast our second-half sales and revenue projections.” (Wood Products)

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

“The US manufacturing sector continued to expand in July, but shows increasing signs of struggling against headwinds of supply shortages, rising prices and deteriorating exports.

“The latest survey showed output rising at a rate roughly equivalent to an annualised 1% pace of expansion, which is the weakest since late last year. While a weakening of new export orders for a second successive month suggested foreign demand has waned compared to earlier in the year, the slowdown can be also in part attributed to increased difficulties in sourcing sufficient quantities of inputs. Suppliers’ delivery delays were more widespread than at any time in the survey’s history. With producers often scrambling to buy enough raw materials, suppliers enjoyed greater pricing power. Not surprisingly, with tariffs also kicking in, cost pressures spiked higher again.

“Some relief for manufacturers came from strong domestic demand, which meant firms were increasingly able to pass higher costs on to customers. Average prices charged for goods consequently rose at the steepest rate for seven years, which is likely to feed through to higher consumer prices in coming months.”

Does that sound like a sustainable 4% economy?

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Are The Market Generals Leading Us To War?

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Market Wizards, a best-selling investment book written by Jack Schwager, is a must-read for investors looking to improve their performance. Each chapter of the book provides a biography and an interview of a highly successful trader/investor. Originally published in 1989, the book is full of valuable lessons from some of the best in the business, including Paul Tudor Jones, Jim Rogers, Marty Schwartz, and Ed Seykota.

Of timely interest is a quote from William O’Neil:

“Another way to determine the direction of the general market is to focus on how the leading stocks are performing. If the stocks that have been leading the bull market start to break down, that is a major sign the market has topped.”

The “leading” stocks that O’Neil mentions are commonly referred to as the “Generals.”

On the heels of recent weakness in some of today’s Generals, we examine whether these stocks are sending us a signal to seek shelter or if their lower prices are temporary and a rallying call for the troops.

FAANG Stocks

The Generals leading the market higher over the last couple of years go by the acronym of FAANG. FAANG is composed of Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (APPL), Netflix (NFLX), and Google (GOOGL). To understand the outsized effect they have on the S&P 500 consider the following:

  • Per Bloomberg data, the five FAANG stocks currently account for 13.5% of the weighting of the S&P 500.

  • The combined market cap of the FAANG’s is equal to that of the smallest 252 S&P 500 constituents.

  • On average, each FAANG stock has over 13 times the effect on the S&P 500 index than the average stock in the index.

The popularity of the FAANG stocks has risen substantially over the last few years as witnessed by a futures contract and multiple ETFs that track the performance of these five stocks’. Further, the Bank of Montreal now offers 3x leveraged ETF’s (FNGU and FNGD) that triple the performance of the five stocks.

The following paragraphs provide a summary of the most recent earnings announcements and the stock price activity for each FAANG stock. This analysis will help us appreciate what is driving these stock prices over the last two weeks and by default driving the markets.

Facebook – Facebook fell over 20% on July 26, 2018, erasing almost $120 billion in market capitalization. The decline was the largest one-day loss of market value in one stock in the history of the U.S. equity markets.Interestingly, the two runners-up are Intel (INTC) and Microsoft (MSFT), both occurring in the year 2000. At the time, they were five-star Generals that ultimately led their troops over a cliff.

Largely responsible for the drop was Facebook’s second-quarter earnings announcement which reported weaker than expected revenue and daily active users as well as corporate guidance lowering those metrics in the third and fourth quarters. The stock was also downgraded by a few Wall Street analysts.

While the decline was severe, FB is still flat this year and up over 50% since January 2017.

Netflix – Netflix has fallen 7% since a lackluster earnings report on July 23, 2018. While earnings beat estimates, they only added 670,000 U.S. subscribers in the second quarter, missing projections of 1,200,000. This was the first time in five years they fell short of their user projections. Given that Netflix is trading at valuations that portend significant user growth, any signs that they are approaching product saturation should be especially concerning.

Despite the loss, Netflix is still up nearly 200% since January 2017 and over 85% this year.

Amazon – Amazon released its quarterly earnings on July 26, 2018. The stock closed the following day up about half a percent but since then has given back over 2%. While the market initially seemed to focus on a massive beat in earnings versus projections, investors seemed to gravitate to the company’s missed revenue expectations and guidance lower for the next quarter. Given that a large chunk of the bottom line EPS rise was attributable to a sub-3% tax rate, it is likely concerns over forward guidance are justified.

For the year to date, Amazon is up almost 60%, trading near its all-time high and showing few signs of weakness.

Google – Like Amazon, Google smashed earnings expectations, and the stock rose nearly 5% on the day following the announcement. Unlike Amazon, their sales also beat expectations, and they did not lower forward earnings guidance. Google is up 20% year to date and is perched near its all-time highs. Google appears to be the strongest of the Generals.

Apple – Apple’s second quarter earnings per share and sales surpassed Wall Street’s expectations and they raised revenue guidance for earnings for next quarter. The only wrinkle was iPhone sales, which account for more than half of their revenue, came up slightly short of expectations. As of writing this the stock is up 2.50% and within a few cents of its all-time high.

The following table summarizes the FAANG’s stock performance since July 1, 2018.

Summary

Some of the Generals are flashing signs of weakness. That said, two weeks and one-quarter of earnings do not make a trend. Despite large price losses for two of the Generals, the S&P 500 took these drops and earnings announcements in stride. For the week of July 23-27, in which all but one of the FAANGs released earnings, the S&P 500 was up 0.61%.

Currently, we are focused on the price action of FB and NFLX. Given the “buy the dip” reflexivity that has pervaded the market and these stocks in particular, their price action in the weeks ahead will be telling. If they remain at current levels or drift lower, we would regard this as a signal that all is not well. On the other hand, if the FAANG stocks that are struggling start to recoup losses and resume their role leading the market higher again, we will have to wait on the wisdom of William O’Neill.

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At Tampa Rally, QAnon Conspiracists Show Up to Hear Trump Claim You Must Show ID to Buy Groceries: Reason Roundup

You got papers to purchase that banana, ma’am? Speaking at a rally in Florida yesterday, President Donald Trump tried to drum up support for voter identification laws by making a little comparison. If you have to show identification “to buy groceries,” said the president, why shouldn’t you have to show identification in order to vote?

Of course, Americans aren’t (yet) required to prove their citizenship, identity, or anything else before purchasing food. As Peter Suderman points out, Trump’s ignorance on this fact kinda makes previous presidential privilege gaffes look quaint.

The Tuesday-night rally in Tampa also served as a coming out party for “QAnon” believers. This is the group, seeded on forums like 8chan, that is convinced that a federal agent named “Q” has been feeding them dirt on all sorts of Deep State shenanigans: an international pedophilic sex-trafficking ring, a Hillary Clinton/George Soros coup plot, the Rothschilds’ satanic cult, etc. Trump is supposedly aware of all this and in the midst of his own counter-plans.

QAnon supporters “were front and center at the Florida State Fairgrounds Expo Hall, where Trump came to stump for Republican candidates,” reports The Washington Post. “As the president spoke, a sign rose from the audience. ‘We are Q,’ it read. Another poster displayed text arranged in a ‘Q’ pattern: ‘Where we go one we go all.'”

The letter Q also showed up prominently on rally goers t-shirts and in their tweets, as did references to the murdered DNC staffer Seth Rich.

I poured through a few pages of Tampa rally photos on Newscom, to make sure this wasn’t just a couple of folks getting blown out of proportion, and I spotted distinct QAnon signs throughout photos of different parts of the crowd.

The QAnon believers were a relatively small but (deliberately) conspicuous contingent at the rally, as was a small group of protesters (the Washington Examiner reports that there were three) who had gotten inside. The few pictures I could find show a woman in a head scarf engaged in some sort of shouting match with a man in a cowboy hat, and then others, as a woman in a Trump cap takes a selfie with the fracas in the background.

“One person, and tomorrow the headlines will be, ‘Massive protests,'” Trump said as the protesters were esecorted out. (So far, no such headlines have materialized.)

In case you’re curious, here’s how Trump’s perennial-punching-bag CNN described the “rowdy” rally:

“It’s a lot easier to act presidential than to do what I do. Anybody can act presidential!” Trump declared, before tottering across the stage in a parody of a presidential walk, mocking the Oval Office conventions he has shredded since his inauguration, and admitting he likes to be a “little wild, have a little fun” at rallies.

It was an anarchical moment that highlighted the comedy that is an underestimated ingredient of Trump’s demagogic technique. It helps bind him to supporters who feel bitter about Washington institutions they believe have cast them cruelly aside. But it was also a flash of self-awareness by an idiosyncratic politician who intimately understands his own method as one of the great political entertainers, whose skill at fanning resentments is fundamental to his appeal for a large chunk of voters.

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Trump Urges AG Sessions To “Stop Dirty Democrats’ Rigged Witch Hunt Right Now”

President Trump was later then normal to take to his Twitter account this morning, but nevertheless provided a triumvirate of tweets that doubled down on his views of the Russia probe and what should be done about it.

Trump began with a two-fer tweet, quoting Alan Dershowitz:

“FBI Agent Peter Strzok (on the Mueller team) should have recused himself on day one. He was out to STOP THE ELECTION OF DONALD TRUMP. He needed an insurance policy. Those are illegal, improper goals, trying to influence the Election. He should never, ever been allowed to remain in the FBI while he himself was being investigated. This is a real issue. It won’t go into a Mueller Report because Mueller is going to protect these guys. Mueller has an interest in creating the illusion of objectivity around his investigation.”

And then Trump took aim at his own AG, demanding the probe be shut down “right now”…

And cue the hysterical calls of “obstruction” from the liberal media and Chuck and Nancy.

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Ron Paul: Government-Funded ‘Free’ Healthcare Is “Preposterous & Deadly”

Day after day, the newly minted hordes of ‘Democratic Socialists’ proclaim “free stuff” for all as their platform to grabbing the greater fool’s marginal vote.

And finally, after Ocasio-Cortez’ embarrassing display of ignorance, Mike Shedlock notes, cost estimates for “free stuff” are pouring in. The sticker price for “Medicare for All” is shocking.

“Medicare for All” sounds great. And every unthinking socialist wants it. But here’s the deal: ‘Medicare for All’ Would Cost $32.6 Trillion Over 10 Years.

Sen. Bernie Sanders’ “Medicare for all” plan would boost government health spending by $32.6 trillion over 10 years, requiring historic tax hikes, says a study released Monday by a university-based libertarian policy center.

That’s trillion with a “T.”

The latest plan from the Vermont independent would deliver significant savings on administration and drug costs, but increased demand for care would drive up spending, according to the analysis by the Mercatus Center at George Mason University in Virginia. Doubling federal individual and corporate income tax receipts would not cover the full cost, the study said.

The Mercatus analysis estimated the 10-year cost of “Medicare for all” from 2022 to 2031, after an initial phase-in. Its findings are similar to those of several independent studies of Sanders’ 2016 plan. Those studies found increases in federal spending over 10 years that ranged from $24.7 trillion to $34.7 trillion.

Ron Paul raged on his Facebook page:  $32 Trillion! … that’s how much “FREE” costs.

Government intrusion (often welcomed by crony corporations) has ruined the healthcare industry in America.

The idea that government needs to go all the way with “FREE” care is preposterous, and deadly.

The solution is in the opposite direction.

Get government OUT of healthcare, and return it to the free marketplace.

*  *  *

Mish exclaims, I am not at all surprised by the estimated cost but I do have a question: How do we afford $3.4 trillion a year for 10 years of “free” stuff?

And Medicare is just a start. There are proposals for free college tuition and free universal pre-kindergarten among other things.

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10Y Treasury Yield Tops 3.00% After Treasury News

As we noted here, the Treasury announced it would raise the amount of long-term debt it sells to $78 billion this quarter, up from $73 billion last quarter, while launching a new two-month bill. 

The surprise is that whereas consensus had expected 5-year auctions to increase by $1 billion in the quarter, the Treasury will now increase the auction amount by $1bn every month in the quarter, for a total of $3 billion, which in turn will put extra pressure on the belly of the curve.   

And that extra supply has prompted weakness across the Treasury curve, pushing 10Y Yields back above 3.00% for the first time since The Fed hiked rates in June…

And the yield curve is steepening…

All of this ahead of The Fed this afternoon.

 

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The War on Tipping: New at Reason

Union protestors and celebrity advocates have decided that waiters’ tips aren’t big enough, writes John Stossel. They are upset that in 43 states, tipped workers can be paid a lower minimum wage, as low as $2.13 an hour. Unfortunately, Stossel observes, these activists want to “protect” restaurant workers right out of their jobs.

View this article.

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