Could Puerto Rico Be the Solution to Our Latest Immigration Fight?: New at Reason

Thousands of Spanish-speakers have fled from their homelands in Guatemala, Honduras, and elsewhere in Central America, only to be greeted at the border with harsh family separation policies and other barriers designed to discourage foreign newcomers.

Meanwhile, Puerto Rico’s population has suffered a sharp decline in recent years. After peaking at 3.8 million in 2004, the island’s population fell by to an estimated 3.3 million people by mid-2017 due to low birth rates and out-migration. In the aftermath of Hurricane Maria, the rate of departures spiked, with many of those leaving not expected to return. Projections recently released by Puerto Rico’s federal oversight board call for a 6.4 percent population decline during the current fiscal year, with further decreases through 2023.

Could we solve one problem with another, asks Marc Joffe.

View this article.

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Martin Shkreli Starts A Blog, Teaches Discounting To Convicts, Offers Biotech Research From Prison

“America’s most hated man” Martin Shkreli may be serving a 7 year prison sentence (for various offenses among which having the temerity to raise drug prices, something which Pfizer just did today) but that does not mean he has any interest in disappearing from the public spotlight.

To confirm that, on July 1, Shrekli launched a new blog at the martinshkreli.com address (the URL was registered on May 5, 2015 with godaddy) in which he will share “My thoughts on biopharma and other topics like my friendship with my best friend mo she is seriously the best and i love her dog ringo i do not compare to him at all.”

This is how his first blog post begins:

Welcome to my first blog. I’ll be discussing biopharmaceuticals and other topics. I’ll try to mark sections clearly for those who are here for industry commentary as compared to my personal life.

He then lays out his thoughts on several recent developments in the biotech space, before highlighting that he is now teaching discount rates to convicted felons:

In teaching discount rates to some of the guys here, we find dogma like ‘sovreigns always have less default risk than corporates’, when obviously most S&P 100 companies have lower default risk than the Eastern European countries I come from. Or my notion that a conglomerate should always have (all else being equal) less default risk than an industry-focused company. Certainly GE has more default risk than Amgen. You can slap together a lot of low-margin businesses with leverage and you’re far less safe than a well-run industry leader. But, ceritus paribus, the Novartis move is risk-neutral since healthcare conglomerates aren’t really conglomerates. Having an eye healthcare business isn’t particularly diversifying other than somewhat eliminating concentration risk which naturally comes with scale. GE selling Healthcare markedly increases risk, in my eyes. Any precision that comes from better operational focus is overwhelmed by the idea that one of their highest-return businesses is being spun off. Companies need to weather bad times. There’s a reason Berkshire Hathaway, the consummate rollup/conglomerate (dirtiest words possible) bailed everyone out in 2008.

He proceeds to list several science papers he has been reading, and then hits us with the punchline: he is now offering biotech research services from prison:

If there is a biopharma stock you want me to review, email martin@thotpatrol.com (gets snail mailed to me by a friend) or send me a snail mail at:

Martin Shkreli
Register #87850-053
FCI Fort Dix
Federal Correctional Institution
PO Box 2000
Joint Base MDL, NJ 08640

Shkreli concludes with the following update, which includes everything from his person thoughts about reading on himself, to the fate of the Wu-Tang album and his financial assets, even his thoughts on the current political situation, saying that “politics seem to be tearing this country apart. I think both sides have to start capitulating or perhaps California/NYC should become a special entity with their own federal government.” He won’t, however, discuss prison life:

I have around 38 months to go assuming no success on an appeal. I spend most of my team reading. A newspaper misreported that I’m ‘buff’. This is not the case. Oh, the Wu-Tang album is still in my possession. As are all of my assets. I couldn’t have a lower opinion of newswriters now that I’ve had folks report on me. It’s astonishing, really. I understand that not everyone can be capable or excel at their chosen career, and the reporting of occurrences and chronicling of history is not a vitally important task to those charged with it. So, don’t pay too much attention (an admonishment to the reader and a reminder to myself). Anyway, the fate of the Wu-Tang album remains to be seen, but the choice is distinctly mine. I’m a bit frustrated by the Clan’s insistence on making a further album. I was told this would be the final work–I would have never purchased ‘Shaolin’ if that representation was false. That sounds like a violation of a certain section of Title 18 I’m familiar with, come to think of it. Anyway, I’ll decide at some point if I want to sell the album. If a higher-return troll opportunity occurs, I just might.

What else? Politics seem to be tearing this country apart. I think both sides have to start capitulating or perhaps California/NYC should become a special entity with their own federal government. The rest of the backwards nation will have to make do. It’s more practical than what we have going on. Same federal taxes but less whining. Just thinking way outside the box 🙂

You probably won’t find me talking too much about jail as I think it’s in bad taste. This will undoubtedly be read my inmates and staff and it’s easier (and safer) for me to just avoid certain topics. The only thing I can probably say is I miss my family, friends and cat, roughly in that order.

Finally, he urges anyone out there to reach out:

Well, this will be a living project. If you have any advice, like, “less this and more that”, leave some comments or email martin@thotpatrol.com (my people will slowly deliver this email to me in the form of printed snail mail — takes about 2 weeks from your email until I get it in the actual paper mail). I write this message on our “TRULINCS” prison email system to a friend. That friend posts it on the blog. Hope you enjoy this!

 

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The Most Important Geopolitical Meeting This Year

Authored by Venand Meliksetian via OilPrice.com,

Relations between the United States and Russia have deteriorated dramatically over the years due to Moscow’s intervention in neighbouring Ukraine and its annexation of Crimea. This change in foreign policy has some analysts talking about a ‘new cold war’. Moscow’s participation and support for President Assad of Syria put Russian interest and soldiers against America’s. One of the reasons the intervention took place during the height of the Ukraine crisis was the Kremlin’s intention to reduce the effectiveness of the isolationist policy of the West vis-à-vis Russia by making itself indispensable for solving the crisis.

The alleged meddling of Moscow in the American presidential elections of 2016 created a political minefield for President Donald Trump when trying to meet with President Vladimir Putin of Russia. Although they have spoken several times on the fringes of international events such as the G20 gathering in 2017, an official bilateral visit has not yet been organised. Recent developments, however, have provided an opening for both leaders. Besides the civil war in Syria and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, coordination in the energy domain has proven to be another reason for communication.

The recent unilateral withdrawal of the United States as a signatory to the JCPOA, or the Iran Nuclear Deal, requires the cooperation of major energy producers to absorb the shocks of Trump’s decision. In order to isolate Iran and deprive it of financial resources, it is imperative for the U.S. administration to reduce the export of Iranian oil. However, as Iran is a major exporter of oil with 2,6 million barrels/day, withholding the world’s markets this amount in the current situation, will seriously increase prices. With midterm elections on the horizon for 2018, President Trump fears higher prices for the summer driving season will negatively affect support for Republican candidates.

Enter the fray Russia and OPEC.

Although the U.S. president has lambasted OPEC for “artificially increasing the price of oil”, cooperation with other major producers is the only viable alternative for the U.S. administration to keep prices in check while isolating Iran. The U.S. apparently has quietly asked Saudi Arabia and some other producers of OPEC to increase production with 1 million barrels/day.

It is in Riyadh’s interest that the prices remain as high as possible as it would provide highly needed revenues and it would ensure the maximum result on the coming IPO of 5%of the national Saudi Aramco oil company. Saudi Arabia, however, seems to have listened to the heeded calls and advice from partners and allies. During the meeting this June in Vienna, OPEC in cooperation of non-members such as Russia and Mexico agreed to increase the daily production with one million barrels/day.

Just days after the agreement to boost oil production, U.S. energy secretary Rick Perry is expected to meet with his Russian counterpart energy minister Alexander Novak at the World Gas Conference. It is expected that the U.S. will discuss cooperation in light of sanctions kicking in this summer for Iranian oil exports. Moscow welcomes cooperation with Washington as it proofs the indispensable position of Russia in world affairs.

Furthermore, a cooperation of some sorts between the two countries is a good precursor for the upcoming meeting between the Russian and American presidents on 16th of July in Helsinki. National security advisor John Bolton has met with Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov on 26 June in Moscow in order to discuss a meeting between Trump and Putin and its possible content. Coordination in the energy domain could pave the way for the upcoming visit.

Unlike other partners, the modest bilateral trade and the corresponding deficit between the U.S. with Russia, respectively $24 and $10 billion in 2017, will most likely not lead to a trade war. Therefore, Moscow could make use of the opportunity to improve relations with Washington in areas of agreement while lacking serious imperatives such as trade.

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Michael Moore Thinks Trump Will Win the 2020 Presidential Election

Michael Moore thinks he knows who will win the 2020 presidential election. Appearing last Friday on HBO’s Real Time with Bill Maher, the filmmaker declared that Donald Trump would be reelected. Moore begged the audience to take his prediction seriously, saying that otherwise America could turn into an episode of The Handmaid’s Tale:

It’s obviously a little early for any certainty about the next presidential race, but Moore at least has a track record he can point to. In October 2016, he declared on Meet the Press that Trump could defeat Hillary Clinton, calling the Republican a “human Molotov cocktail” that Rust Belt voters were preparing to throw at a political system they once supported.

||| HBOLater in the month, Moore predicted Trump’s win during a promotional event.

“I know a lot of people in Michigan that are planning to vote for Trump, and they don’t necessarily agree with him,” he explained to the audience. “Trump’s election is going to be the biggest ‘fuck you’ ever recorded in human history—and it will feel good.”

Trump won Moore’s home state on election night, carrying 12 counties that had previously voted for Barack Obama. A breakdown of the election revealed that Trump’s decision to take his message to working-class Michiganders contributed to his win. At the same time, the Clinton campaign failed to appreciate how many more resources were needed in the state, campaigning somewhat harder but not to the extent urged by party activists on the ground.

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Nassim Taleb Slams “These Virtue-Signaling Open-Borders Imbeciles” In 3 Short Tweets

As liberals across America continue to attempt to one-up one another with the volume of virtue they can signal, specifically on the question of ‘open borders’ – especially since ‘jenny from the bronx’ victory over the weekend, none other than Nassim Nicholas Taleb unleashed a trite 3-tweet summary of how farcical this argument is…

What intellectuals don’t get about MIGRATION is the ethical notion of SYMMETRY:

1) OPEN BORDERS work if and only if the number of pple who want to go from EU/US to Africa/LatinAmer equals Africans/Latin Amer who want to move to EU/US

2) Controlled immigration is based on the symmetry that someone brings in at least as much as he/she gets out. And the ethics of the immigrant is to defend the system as payback, not mess it up.

Uncontrolled immigration has all the attributes of invasions.

3) As a Christian Lebanese, saw the nightmare of uncontrolled immigration of Palestinians which caused the the civil war & as a part-time resident of N. Lebanon, I am seeing the effect of Syrian migration on the place.

So I despise these virtue-signaling open-borders imbeciles.

Silver Rule in #SkinInTheGame

* * *

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Seattle’s First-in-the-Nation Straw Ban Goes Into Effect. More Will Follow.

Seattle continues to play its role as an incubator of bad policy ideas by imposing the nation’s first ban on plastic straws. First articulated in September of last year, the new ban officially went into effect on Sunday.

The law prohibits all food-service businesses, including restaurants, coffee shops, delis, and pubs, from offering any disposable straw or utensil to patrons unless they specifically request one. Should a customer ask for one, said straw will have to be not just biodegradable but compostable under Seattle’s exacting city-level standards. Violators will be hit with $250 fines.

Seattleites will still probably see plastic straws around town for the next couple months, as plenty of businesses are still scrambling to make the switch to their compostable counterparts.

Caroline Lee of Young Tea, a boba tea shop in downtown Seattle, told Reason last week that she was still in the process of working with her supplier in Taiwan to make a straw that meets the new regulation. Lee says the new straws are six to seven times more expensive and fall apart from exposure to high heats, requiring special packaging when shipped by sea. She is considering having a test batch flown in by air, which will raise costs further.

Lee expressed her hope that the city would give business owners a grace period and even compensate them for the extra costs they are being asked to take on. So far, compensation seems out of the question. But there will, mercifully, be a grace period. Ellen Pepin-Cato of Seattle Public Utilities (SPU)—the agency responsible for enforcing the ban—tells The Seattle Times that the focus for now would be on “continuing outreach and assistance to businesses to help them come into compliance, rather than enforcement.”

As businesses in the Emerald City struggle to comply with the new straw ban, other jurisdictions are passing or seriously considering bans of their own.

Vancouver, Canada, prohibited straws back in May, much to the chagrin of boba tea shop owners, plastics manufacturers, and disability advocates (who take issue with banning a essential utensil for those who have difficulty bringing cup to mouth). Several New York City councilmembers are trying to do the same in their city, introducing legislation in May that would ban straws for everyone who doesn’t need one for medical purposes.

These councilmembers are being spurred on by the Lonely Whale, an environmental group that sees straws as a “gateway plastic” that could spawn more bans of more plastic items. Lonely Whale played a crucial role in Seattle’s ban with its Strawless in Seattle campaign. They’ve since deployed actor Adrian Grenier to make videos and co-sign op-eds demanding that the Big Apple follow Seattle’s lead and ditch single-use straws altogether.

An exhausting number of celebrities and corporations are jumping aboard the craze too. From Tom Brady and Ikea to Calvin Harris and McDonald’s, everyone is telling you to stop sucking and start think about the planet.

They’ll sometimes claim that Americans use 500 million straws a day. Always they’ll argue that ditching straws is an unambiguous good for our oceans filling with plastic. Neither argument is very convincing.

That 500 million straw a day figure—cited by The Washington Post yesterday—has been debunked as the product of a nine-year-old’s research. But even if that stat were accurate, straw bans are unlikely to help the planet much. The U.S. is responsible for a tiny portion of the world’s marine plastic waste (less than 1 percent), as are plastic straws themselves (about .03 percent). The best approach to the problem of oceanic plastic pollution is better waste management systems in the developing world, not bans on plastic products.

It is easy to see a parallel between this movement and the once-popular urge to prohibit or restrict the use of plastic bags. Likewise spurred on by bad stats and feel-good activism, San Francisco became the first major city to ban plastic bags in 2007, with prohibitions later moving on to the usual suspects of Seattle, Los Angeles, Austin, and eventually the entire state of California. But once the easy wins were out of the way and consumers became increasingly irritated at the loss of convenience, a blacklash set in. Ten states have passed preemption ordinances prohibiting municipalities from imposing their own bag bans (among them Minnesota, which overturned a Minneapolis ban). Last week the Texas Supreme Court ruled that Austin’s bag ban was illegal under preexisting state law.

Something similar will likely happen with plastic straws. As the novelty of straw bans wear off and as their costs become more apparent, momentum will slow, and hopefully reverse. That will leave a handful of municipalities clinging to their prohibitions, a few states with straw ban preemption laws, and a lot of consumers and businesses hoping just to be left alone.

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CIA Teams Up With Defense Industry To Undermine Korea Negotiations

Via Disobedient Media

In a new development that will shock no one, factions within the CIA attempted for the second time in just over a month to undermine President Trump’s peace overtures towards North Korea by leaking information calculated to decrease confidence in Kim Jong Un’s willingness to earnestly negotiate.

On June 29, 2018, NBC News released a report quoting anonymous CIA officials who claimed that North Korea was increasing nuclear production at “secret sites” without providing any actual evidence for such claims. The report’s credibility is further weakened by the fact that it also cited reports from a think tank which has strong connections to the defense industry and other private special interests.

In disseminating their report, the CIA used NBC reporter Ken Dilanian as an outlet for leaks. As Disobedient Media previously reported, Dilanian was outed by the Intercept in 2014 as a CIA asset. In the aftermath of the disclosure, Dilanian’s previous employers at the Tribune Washington and Los Angeles Times disavowed the disgraced journalist. In at least one instance, the CIA’s instructions to Dilanian appears to have led to significant changes in a story that was eventually published in the Los Angeles Times.

Since that time, Dilanian has persisted in pushing articles written by former CIA officials who continue to perpetuate the “Trump-Russia” collusion narrative without any regard to facts, such as Steven Hall’s Washington Post article titled: “I was in the CIA. We wouldn’t trust a country whose leader did what Trump did.”

In the absence of hard evidence from the CIA to back their claims about North Korea, Dilanian cited the opinion of Clinton administration official Joel Wit and reports from 38north.org. 38north is a project run by the Henry L. Stimson Center. The Stimson Center’s Board of Directors includes individuals associated with organizations such as Northrop Grumman, the Boeing Company, Warburg Pincus, the Carnegie Endowment, Mercy Corps, The Council on Foreign Relations, the Department of Defense, the CIA and US Department of the Treasury. Their Partners include the George C. Marshall Foundation, Saudi Arabia’s Gulf Research Center and the Jinnah Institute.

Satellite images circulated by 38north claiming to show improvements to North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center appear to have been obtained from Airbus Defense and Space SAS, a subsidiary of European multinational conglomerate Airbus Group SE. Airbus was the brainchild of Germany’s DaimlerChrysler Aerospace and British Aerospace. The association of a German connected transnational group in efforts to undermine Korean peace negotiations is interesting given the strong connections they held with the now scandalized South Korean government of Park Geun-hye.

The involvement of a think tank in a website that is centered around undermining US confidence in North Korea is hardly a surprise given their connections to the military-industrial complex and internationalist special interest groups. Both Northrop Grumman and Boeing have seen their stock’s value drop in the aftermath of Trump’s Singapore meeting with Kim Jong Un in what analysts saw as a temporary setback to defense stocks. Seeing such corporations use their ties to institutions such as the Stimson Center to collaborate with the CIA in an effort to scuttle commitments to North Korean denuclearization and a peace accord between the Koreas and United States represents a new low.

Despite the best efforts of the CIA, President Trump has stated that there is no current nuclear threat from North Korea, and that the Singapore Summit represented a positive interaction with the leader of the so-called “hermit kingdom.” Trump has repeatedly highlighted the opportunity for Chairman Kim to engage with the world and begin a new era of “security and prosperity” for North Korea. North Korea destroyed portions of their test site at Punggye-ri before a group of foreign journalist observers in the lead up to the US-North Korea summit on June 12.

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3 Month Bill Bid-To-Cover Plunges To Lowest In A Decade Amid Fleeing Demand

While demand for US Treasurys remains brisk at primary auctions (if more questionable in the secondary market where we recently learned that Russia dumped half of its Treasury holdings, or almost $50BN, in April), the same can hardly be said for the short-end of the market, where moments ago we saw what happens to auction demand in a time of rapidly rising rates.

As shown in the chart below, while the yield on 3 Month Bills auctioned off today came in largely as expected at 1.940%, the demand did not, and after an already depressed Bid to Cover of 2.89 last week, today’s 3M auction suffered from one of the lowest demands on record, tumbling to just 2.62, with $125.88BN in bids tendered for $48BN in paper, down sharply from $138.87BN on June 25. In context, this was the lowest Bid To Cover inthe past ten years, and one would have to go back all the way to the post-Lehman days of 2008 to find a lower BTC.

And with both T-Bill issuance continuing to surge, and rates rising, two things are certain: not only will the Libor-OIS spread resume blowing out amid the continued surge in short-term supply and increasingly tighter financial conditions, but demand will continue slide, although the good news is that we are still well off from the record lows, in which auctions were only 2.0x covered at the start of the century. That said, who knows: perhaps the break in the bond market will begin with a failed Bill auction as the US Treasury finds it increasingly difficult to roll over short-term debt.

What we do know is that today’s sloppy 3-Month auction follows an equally ugly 6-Month Bill sale on June 18, when it took saw the second lowest BTC print this decade. The result: two unexpectedly ugly Bill auctions two weeks apart from each other as demand for cash-equivalents suddenly flees.

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Tesla Is Tanking

Having surged as much as 7% pre-market – despite missing its deadline for the milestone of producing 5,000 Model 3 cars in a week – it appears the humans have now read the reports (rather than the machines), and Tesla’s stock price is tumbling…

Well that escalated quickly…

“I think we just became a real car company,” Musk wrote earlier.

And judging by Tesla’s bonds, it has a long way to go…

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Will Any Country Stand Up To Trump Sanctions?

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Juan Cole claims Turkey, Iraq, and China will defy Trump sanctions. But saying and doing are two different things.

Juan Cole, Informed Comment, says Turkey, Iraq and China defy Trump on new Iran Sanctions, Act to Hold Tehran Harmless.

Let me first point out the EU said the same thing, but it won’t.

China might, but how does that get goods to Iran?

Iraq by itself is meaningless. It would also imply cooperation between Iraq and Iran.

India is more interesting. The Financial Tribune reported India to Revive Rupee Payment for Iran Oil Imports. That is from the First Iranian English Economic Daily, but the headline rings true. I do not doubt it a bit. Here are some interesting snips:

India is looking to revive a rupee trade mechanism to settle part of its oil payments to Iran, fearing foreign channels to pay Tehran might choke under pressure from US sanctions, two government sources said.

During a previous round of sanctions, India devised a barter-like scheme acceptable to Washington to allow it to make some oil payments to Tehran in rupees through a small state bank.

Iran used the funds to import goods from India, Reuters reported. “We are looking at reviving rupee mechanism … We have to prepare ourselves,” one of the sources told Reuters, adding that the current payment mechanism might not work from November.

Refiners in India currently use State Bank of India and Germany-based Europaeisch-Iranische Handelsbank AG to buy Iranian oil in euros, according to IOC and other companies.

Oil Trades Directly in Euros

Read that last line carefully. Please note that Iranian oil trades directly in euros, not dollars.

India purchased oil both in Rupees and in euros, directly from Iran.

No one needs dollars to buy oil.

Is this hash settled once and for all? Unfortunately, no. Petrodollar conspiracy proponents will never stop making idiotic claims that people get sucked into.

With that, let’s move on.

India Preparing for Cut in Oil Imports from Iran

Reuters reports India Preparing for Cut in Oil Imports from Iran.

India’s oil ministry has asked refiners to prepare for a ‘drastic reduction or zero’ imports of Iranian oil from November, two industry sources said, the first sign that New Delhi is responding to a push by the United States to cut trade ties with Iran.

India has said it does not recognise unilateral restrictions imposed by the United States, and instead follows U.N. sanctions. But the industry sources said India, the biggest buyer of Iranian oil after China, will be forced to take action to protect its exposure to the U.S. financial system.

India’s oil ministry held a meeting with refiners on Thursday, urging them to scout for alternatives to Iranian oil, the sources said.

That is the difference between saying and doing. It is entirely believable that India will establish another Rupee exchange mechanism. However, it appears unlikely India will use it.

Let’s return to Juan Cole.

Turkey, Iraq and China defy Trump on New Iran Sanctions

​The Trump administration is unlikely to have the same success in getting other countries to boycott Iranian petroleum as did the Obama administration in 2012-2015, though its officials are making a full court press in that regard.

Proof came in the form of statements from the Turkish, Iraqi and Chinese governments yesterday. Turkish Economy Minister Nihat Zeybekci was scathing on Trump’s aggressive moves against Iran. Turkey, he said, is not bound by the new US sanctions, which are unilateral. Reuters reports him saying in Ankara, “The decisions that the United States makes are not binding on us. We would be bound by any decisions taken by the United Nations.”

Then Zeybekci, who is certainly speaking for newly reelected Turkish president Tayyip Erdogan, put the sting in the tail: “We will try to pay attention so that Iran, which is a friend and brother country, doesn’t experience injustice or is wronged in these matters.”

Turkey isn’t just not cooperating with Washington on this issue, it is actively defying Trump and Pompeo and promising to run interference for Iran. This stance comes despite the conflict in Syria between Turkey and Iran, where they took opposite sides (though that conflict is winding down and likely few would make policy just on that basis anyway).

Iraq also says that the change in Washington policy toward Iran will not affect its plans for economic cooperation with Tehran. The logistics of oil transport are such that it makes sense for Iraq to send Kirkuk oil to a refinery in Kermanshah for Iranian consumers, and to accept refined Iranian petroleum into south Iraq at the other end of the country.

Russia had plans to invest $50 bn. in the Iranian hydrocarbon sector, and while some of those plans may now be shelved, Washington should not count on much cooperation from Vladimir Putin, who has an active battlefield alliance with Iran in Syria.

Most important of all, China’s massive Sinopec oil company says it needs Iranian oil for its new provincial refineries and has no plans to cut back.

​Saying vs. Doing

Can we accept the headline as fact? The correct answer is no.

India and the EU said they would defy sanctions, then backed down.

Is it possible?

Yes. Turkey holds a lot of cards.

Synopsis

Turkey, in and of itself, is not a major global player. But Turkey has a critical land connection to both Iran and the EU.

If the US sanctioned Turkey it could take over US military bases or deny US air rights. Sanctioning Turkey would also drive the country straight into the arms of Russia.

And unless Trump sanctioned Turkey, the country could get goods easily through Greece or Bulgaria and pass them straight to Iran. This would be a huge boon to a country struggling financially with massive inflation.

If Turkey allows goods into Iran, would Trump bomb either country? That seems highly doubtful.

It only takes one major country to stand up to Trump for this whole thing to collapse or backfire spectacularly.

China is a huge global player, but China has no means of getting goods to Iran. Iran would have Yuan, but what would it do with them?

Domino Effect

If Turkey does go ahead with this threat, might not India, Russia, and Georgia join the party?

Yes, perhaps. Trump would have to then sanction India, China, Turkey, Russia, and Georgia.

You can see where this is headed. But, it has to start somewhere. As I said, saying and doing are different matters.

I cannot stand Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, but he could do the whole world a big favor by standing up to Trump.

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