iftttwall

As it turns out, homeowners in storm-battered Houston aren’t selling their homes in nearly as large numbers as people from certain high-tax blue states, which are facing higher taxes thanks to the Trump tax plan. To wit, ATTOM Data Solutions has published an index that purports to show areas where Americans are moving away en masse. According to their rankings, blue-state Nevada and Delaware are the two states that will see the largest outflows of families in the immediate future. They’re followed by Florida, Colorado and Virginia.

To achieve its scores, ATTOM bases its “pre-mover” housing index on its own trademark calculation: The ratio of homes that will, by ATTOM’s estimation, likely be sold in the next 90 days compared with the total number of single family homes and condos in a given area. To arrive at its sales estimate, ATTOM analyzes home-loan data that’s reported by banks.

Colorado Springs, Colo.

Of the 118 metropolitan areas analyzed for its report, Colorado Springs, Colo., Manchester-Nashua, New Hampshire, El Paso, Texas, Washington DC and Orlando Florida had the highest “pre-mover” rankings.

Metropolitan areas with the lowest pre-mover ranking included Cleveland, Ohio, Rochester, New York; Boston, Massachusetts, Pittsburgh, Penn. and Providence, Rhode Island.

Among the 314 counties analyzed for the report, those with the highest pre-mover index were Henry County, Georgia, El Paso County, Colorado, Jacksonville County, North Carolina and Spotsylvania County, Virginia and Osceola County, Florida.

Meanwhile, those with the lowest pre-mover index were Erie County, New York, Sedgwick County, Kansas, San Mateo County, California, Wayne County, Michigan, and Queens County, New York.

Home prices in the the areas with lower pre-mover scores tend to be higher than their counterparts with higher scores. The average value of homes bought by pre-movers in the counties with the highest pre-mover index scores was $269,766, while the average value of homes sought by pre-movers in the top 10 counties with the lowest scores was $404,621.

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Authored by Wolf Richter via WolfStreet.com,

TV falls further behind, suffers first ad revenue decline since the Financial Crisis.

You might think you never look at these ads or click on them, and you might think they’re the biggest waste of money there ever was, but reality is that internet advertising revenues in the US are surging, and are blowing all other media categories out of the water. But only two companies divvy up among themselves nearly 60% of the spoils.

Internet advertising revenues in the US soared 21.4% in 2017 from a year earlier to a record of $88 billion, thus handily demolishing TV ad revenues, which declined 2.6% to $70.1 billion, according to annual ad revenue report by the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB).

It was the second year in a row that internet ad revenues beat TV. In 2016, internet ad revenues (or “ad spend”) had surpassed TV ad revenues for the first time in US history.

And 2017 was the first year in the data series going back to 2010 that TV advertising actually declined. That formerly unstoppable growth industry is now a declining industry.

Of the $254 billion spent on advertising in 2017 in the US, online ads obtained a share of 35%. In the chart below, there are two big media categories: Internet and TV. The rest are also-rans. Newspapers (print) are still on the list, if in much diminished form, down about 25% from 2010, but still nearly double the ad spend of OOH (out-of-home advertising, such as billboards, ads inside public transit, etc.):

Why is the Internet so successful in attracting the big bucks?

Read IAB’s explanation carefully because it discusses what happens with your personal data, which is precisely makes internet advertising so appealing to advertisers:

Current technological advances in big data, predictive analytics, artificial intelligence, and robotic process automation (RPA) have all greatly impacted the industry and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

The volume of digital data being created on the internet is increasing exponentially. Every year the digital universe doubles in size with many estimates indicating a 50X growth between 2010 and 2020 [“Inside Big Data, Exponential Growth of Data,” February 2017].

These large volumes of data provide the raw ingredients to enable greater advertising efficiency. The ability to apply analytics and AI to massive volumes of data enable marketers to target end users in ways not previously possible. Furthermore, these same advances when combined with RPA have allowed for increased automation throughout the ecosystem – driving further efficiencies.

Mobile is hot. Internet advertising on mobile devices surged 36.2% in 2017 from a year earlier to $38.1 billion of the $88 billion in total internet advertising.

Among the major internet ad formats, search ads – hello Google – get almost half the share to total spending:

• Search ad revenues +17.5% to $40.6 billion (46% share).

• Banner ad revenues +23% to $27.5 billion (31% share)

• Video ad revenues +33% to $11.9 billion; all of that growth came from mobile devices, up 53% to $6.2 billion; there was no growth on PCs.

• Other (lead generation, audio, classified, etc.) +19.2% to $8 billion.

Social Media sizzles, fake news no problem. Advertising spend on social media surged 36% from the prior year to $22.2 billion, now accounting for a quarter of all internet advertising, up from just an 8% share in 2012.

But who’s getting all this internet ad manna?

The report is presented at an “anonymized aggregate level,” and no company names are given. But it’s not hard to figure out. The top ten companies got 74% of the share in Q4 2017, according to the report.

For further detail, we mosey over to eMarketer, which estimates that in 2017, Google captured 38.6% of the total internet ad spend in the US and Facebook captured 19.9% in the US, for a combined total of 58.5% of total internet ad spend. Just by these two companies!

For perspective, Google’s parent Alphabet reported global revenues of $111 billion in 2017, and Facebook $40 billion. Practically all of it was generated by internet advertising.

eMarketer expects Google’s and Facebook’s respective share of total ad spend to decline slightly going forward, even as their dollar ad revenues continue to rise, but more slowly than the overall market. They’re under pressure from some newcomers and smaller giants, so to speak, and from Amazon which is muscling into this space and is expected to carve out over $2 billion in 2018, and more in 2019, providing further excitement in future years.

E-commerce sales are soaring, but only about half of retail is under attack from e-commerce, and that half is getting crushed. Read…  Brick & Mortar Meltdown Pummels These Stores the Most 

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Former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon slammed Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Monday over a weekend truce in the ongoing trade dispute with China.

In comments to Bloomberg on Monday, Bannon said that Trump “changed the dynamic regarding China, but in one weekend Secretary Mnuchin has given it away.” 

“We’re putting the trade war on hold,” said Mnuchin in a Joint statement with China on Sunday. “Right now, we have agreed to put the tariffs on hold while we execute the framework.”

Bannon wasn’t impressed – telling Bloomberg that Mnuchin “misses the central point” of the economic competition between the two nations. 

“They’re in a trade war with us and it hasn’t stopped,” Bannon said. “Mnuchin has completely misread the geopolitical, military, and historical precedence and what President Trump had done was finally put the Chinese on their back heels.”

“You might as well have Hank Paulson doing this”

The Trump administration said it would back down from prior threats of new tariffs against China after the two nations agreed to “substantially” downsize the U.S. merchandise trade deficit, which hit a record $375 billion last year. In response, Beijing promised to “significantly” increase US purchases going forward – albeit with no dollar figure attached.  The White House, however, gave assurances that China would cave to its demand for a $200 billion annual trade-gap reduction. 

Trump on Monday defended the negotiations. “China has agreed to buy massive amounts of ADDITIONAL Farm/Agricultural Products – would be one of the best things to happen to our farmers in many years!” he said in a series of postings on Twitter. “On China, Barriers and Tariffs to come down for first time.”

China has agreed to buy massive amounts of ADDITIONAL Farm/Agricultural Products – would be one of the best things to happen to our farmers in many years!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 21, 2018

Trump also noted on Monday that China ” must continue to be strong & tight on the Border of North Korea until a deal is made,” adding “The word is that recently the Border has become much more porous and more has been filtering in. I want this to happen, and North Korea to be VERY successful, but only after signing!”

China must continue to be strong & tight on the Border of North Korea until a deal is made. The word is that recently the Border has become much more porous and more has been filtering in. I want this to happen, and North Korea to be VERY successful, but only after signing!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 21, 2018

As Bloomberg notes, other Trump loyalists echoed Bannon. Dan DiMicco, a trade adviser for Trump’s campaign and transition, joined in the criticism.

“Chinese r laughing at us again,” he said in a tweet. “They have never delivered on 1 promise in the past. Appeasement is the devils friend. Now we get to export our natural resources like an island nation.Soil & Water via agriculture. Energy instead of value added Mfg products!”

Chinese r laughing all the way 2 the head of the class. They have never delivered on 1 promise in the past. Appeasement is the devils friend. Now we get to export our natural resources like an island nation.Soil & Water via agrriculture. Energy instead of value added mfg products https://t.co/Fcc1zByIng

— Dan DiMicco (@DanRDimicco) May 21, 2018

Bannon is traveling to Italy this week to meet with Matteo Salvini of the Northern League about the populist party’s electoral success.

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Submitted by Nick Colas of DataTrek Research

Thanks to all of you who participated in last week’s DataTrek Tech Disruption survey. We know the questions covered a lot of ground, so we appreciate your powering through and giving us so much useful information. Today we’d like to share the results. First, a few details:

• We got 147 responses, the vast majority from DataTrek’s proprietary contact lists of investment professionals.

• The modal age range of respondents was 46-55 (27% of all survey takers). A further 23% were ages 56-65, and 20% were 36-45 years of age.

• The survey was open from May 13th to May 19th.

Here are the questions in the same order they appeared, your collective answers (edited/bolded for brevity/readability), and our comments:

#1. How reliant are you on your personal smartphone for functions other than basic text and voice communication?

• Not at all: 5%
• Somewhat: 17%
• Quite: 19%
• Very: 32%
• Extremely: 27%

#2. Do you believe you will be as reliant on your phone in 5-10 years, or will other technologies replace some of its functions?

• I expect smartphones will remain very central to my daily life: 59%

• I believe other technologies/products will eventually make smartphones less central to my daily life: 41%

Our take on these 2 questions: we were not surprised that more than three quarters (77%) of respondents feel at least “Quite” tied to their phones for daily non-communication applications.

The fact that a majority think it will remain thus for 5-10 years was surprising, however. Voice applications like Amazon Echo and Google Home are really Trojan horses meant to replace smartphones, tablets and PCs, after all. The Internet-of-Things should also serve to automate tasks where a smartphone is currently the prevailing option, such as shopping or home automation.

This confidence is good for investor sentiment on Apple, reliant as it is on global smartphone sales. Warren Buffett, despite reportedly not touching his own iPhone, must see things the same way as our panel and view the company’s market position as its largest “Moat”.

#3. What social media do you use on a daily basis? (Check all that apply)

• LinkedIn: 40%
• Twitter: 36%
• Facebook: 35%
• YouTube: 28%
• Instagram: 26%
• Snapchat: 7%
• I do not use social media on a daily basis: 22%

Our take: we were curious as to what social media the investor class uses most. Now we know, and so do you.

#4. Do you own a home automation speaker, and if so which one?

• Amazon Echo: 31%
• Google Home: 5%
• Apple HomePod: 0%
• No, but I am considering a purchase in 2018: 14%
• No, and I am not considering a purchase: 48%

Our take: Amazon’s lead in home automation is impressive, and these results mirror other surveys we have seen. As for the almost 50% of you that have no interest in this technology, we hear you. (At least until there is a “Killer app” that makes this a must-have home device for a broader audience than early adopters…)

#5. Have you ever tried a set of virtual reality goggles, or do you own a pair currently?

• No, I have never tried them: 68%
• Yes, but I would not consider buying: 19%
• Yes, and I would consider buying them: 6%
• I own a pair: 7%

Our take: speaking of a lack of “Killer apps”, VR doesn’t seem to have one for most of our respondents.

#6. How long do you think it will be before fully autonomous (no steering wheel) personal vehicles go on sale in the US/Europe/China?

• Within the next 5 years: 18%
• 5 – 10 years: 50%
• 10 – 15 years: 18%
• +15 years from now: 14%

Our take: we were surprised by the confidence expressed here in the 1 to 10-year window, with 68% of respondents in this camp.

Given the auto industry’s long product lead times for even non–autonomous cars/trucks (up to 4 years), this implies that vehicles without steering wheels will start their way through the development process in the next 36-48 months. There is still considerable work to be done in this area, primarily in collecting data from real-world trials to improve existing algorithms.

Both auto and tech industries are working flat out to get products to market, and our survey shows investors clearly expect to see the results of these efforts sooner than traditional product development cycles would seem to allow.

#7. If shown to be safe, reliable and affordable, would you buy or lease an autonomous vehicle for your personal use?

• Yes: 72%
• No: 28%

Our take: There is real demand for fully self-driving vehicles – more than we would have anticipated. Our respondents, mostly between 36 – 65 years of age and affluent, are certainly the core target market for this new technology. Whenever these products are ready, there is a market ready and waiting.

#8. How much risk do you think artificial intelligence/other technology pose to your professional relevance or career goals?

• None: 20%
• Some: 64%
• A lot: 16%

Our take: This is an easy big-picture question to ponder about other professions, but a harder one to answer when it comes to one’s own career risk. Our respondents have their eyes wide open on this point, which is obviously a healthy attitude to take.

#9: What single website or app do you feel is most important to your workplace productivity? (147 answers, most commonly cited here:)

• Google (all properties): 28
• Bloomberg (website and terminal): 20
• Microsoft (mostly email): 10
• Single news sources (WSJ, FT, IBD, etc): 10
• Yahoo Finance: 4

Our take: like question #3, this is another chance to look over the shoulder of your fellow investment professionals. We were a little surprised there wasn’t more consensus on this point, but the varying responses highlight the fragmented nature of “Must have” technology and information sources in investing.

#10: Which large Tech company do you think is currently most at risk from incremental regulation?

• Facebook: 45%
• Amazon: 20%
• Google: 10%
• Twitter: 1%
• Microsoft/Apple: 0%
• I do not think regulation is a significant threat to any: 23%

Our take: despite this survey running several weeks after the Cambridge Analytica/Facebook scandal, respondents still put FB at greatest risk of regulation. Amazon’s #2 position here likely reflects recent criticism by President Trump.

Also worth noting: Microsoft and Apple apparently suffer no discount for potential regulation risk, and that more than 1 in 5 respondents think regulation is not a substantive issue for any of these names.

#11: Looking forward 10 years, which country/region do you think will lead the world in artificial intelligence technology?

• United States: 56%
• China: 43%
• Europe: 1%
• Other mentions: India, Korea, and a split decision with China leading China and the US the rest of the world

Our take: investors clearly see AI as a two-horse race. Europe is out of the picture, and Japan did not receive even one write-in vote.

We are torn as to what to make of this. The US has been the world leader in technology since just after the famous “Sputnik moment” of 1957. On one hand, the threat of Chinese competition in AI may push US companies to move faster, which is a positive for future growth. There is, however, the chance they lose the race.

So far neither camp has a convincing edge. With the billions of dollars flowing into development right now in both countries, however, it is logical to expect one will pull out ahead in the next 36-48 months. We, like our respondents, think the US has a modest edge. But not a lock…

#12: Do you believe any of the following are in a bubble? (Check all that apply.)

• Tech-focused venture capital: 41%
• US Tech stocks: 22%
• Chinese tech stocks: 16%
• None: 44%

Our take: Yes… Venture capital does feel frothy, but “None” was actually the most popular response here. Respondents generally feel comfortable with public Tech stock valuations, both here and in China, despite high valuations.

#13: Which basket of stocks/index do you expect to perform the best over the next 10 years? (Choose one.)

• MSCI World Index: 27%
• S&P 500: 27%
• Chinese BAT (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent): 23%
• US FAANG (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google): 17%
• US 2-Year Treasury: 6%

Our take: despite the answer to the last question, respondents indicated that they feel there is better value outside of super-cap Tech, both in the US and China. Also, they overwhelmingly expect both US and global equity returns will exceed inflation proxies like the 2-Year Treasury over the next decade.

Summing up with three brief points:

• Overall, the answers here certainly reflect a “glass half full” perspective on technology’s most important financial attribute: growth. Adoption rates on new offerings that are relevant to respondents’ lives, like Amazon’s Echo, are excellent and there is real interest in autonomous vehicles as well. The hype around this product is well deserved.

• Respondents expressed an asymmetric view on future technological disruption. They expect brand new technologies such as those that enable autonomous driving to be available in the next decade. At the same time, our survey takers expressed confidence that smartphones will remain central to their lives over the same 10-year horizon, even though there are products for sale right now that seek to undermine that dominance.

• While not worried about public equity valuations in Technology, respondents still favor more-diversified portfolios for the long term. This could well stem from knowing that the global market indices are already heavily weighted to Tech anyway.

Again, thanks to all who took the survey! We’ll be back with a new one in June

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Did the Russians just repel another al-Qaeda mass drone attack, similar to the one in January of this year? 

Though details are still unclear, Damascus-based journalist Danny Makki reports that numerous drones have been downed by Russian air-defenses near Khmeimim airbase (or alternately Hmeimim airbase). In the nearby coastal city of Jableh loud aerial explosions could be heard sometime before 11pm local time — thought to be Russian missile defense systems engaging the drones. 

The Russian Defense Ministry quickly acknowledged the attack, telling RT News that “An unmanned aircraft of unknown origin has been shot down near the Russian Khmeimim airbase in Syria.” And further: “No one was injured in the incident and the base did not sustain any damage,” the Russian Defense Ministry said.

RT additionally reports, based on the Russian Defense Ministry, that “The flying object came close to the military facility late on Monday and was destroyed by the air defenses of the base. Khmeimim airfield continued to operate normally following the incident.”

Local sources reported at least four explosions near Jableh, which as yet unverified video appears to capture. 

Syria: 4 explosions above town of Jablah following new attack targeting Russian Airbase in Khmeimim and activation of air defenses. https://t.co/ZVA16lXIIZ pic.twitter.com/n8oFJ6Mo00 via @QalaatAlMudiq #Syria

— Liveuamap MiddleEast (@lummideast) May 21, 2018

Urgent!

Russian air defenses at the Hmeimim base in rural Latakia have downed drones over the city of Jableh, which were heading towards the base armed with explosives pic.twitter.com/RMWXeuB0Ar

— Moderate Alawite (@moderatealevi) May 21, 2018

Middle East based Muraselon News says four Russian defense missiles were launched at the aircraft of “unknown origin.” However, the attack has all the hallmark features of an al-Qaeda operation from nearby Idlib as the terror group has stepped up makeshift drone and mortar attacks in the past months.

This is the third reported drone attack on Russia’s main military base in Syria this year, and the Russian military will likely respond by pounding Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham positions (HTS, the al-Qaeda affiliate group in control of Idlib). 

Previously during the nights of January 5th and 6th Khmeimim suffered its most serious external attack to date by up to 13 of what Popular Mechanics identified as “black market drones” but which Russia said were American-supplied. A prior mortar assault from HTS apparently prepping the drone invasion had damaged multiple advanced Russian fighter aircraft. 

During that incident, which the Russian Defense Ministry called “a massive attack” Russian defenses shot down at least seven drones while safely electronically intercepting the other six. More notably the January incident was the “first time that terrorists massively used unmanned combat aerial vehicles of an aircraft type that were launched from a distance of more than 50 kilometers, and operated using GPS satellite navigation coordinates,” according to the Russian Defense Ministry.

Both Syrian and the more advanced Russian aerial deterrence systems have been on high alert of late due to frequent Israeli aircraft and missile incursions. It’s possible that al-Qaeda might also be testing Russia’s response and capabilities, perhaps in preparation for a bigger surprise attack. 

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Authored by Daisy Luther via The Organic Prepper blog,

You know all those reports about how lots of Americans can’t afford a $1000 surprise expense like a medical bill or a car repair? Well, forget additional expenses. It turns out that nearly half of the families in America are struggling to pay for food and rent. And that means that the economic collapse isn’t just “coming.” It’s HERE.

United Way has done a study on a group of Americans they call ALICE: Asset Limited, Income Constrained, Employed. The study found that this group does not make the money needed “to survive in the modern economy.”

ALICE is your child care worker, your parent on Social Security, the cashier at your supermarket, the gas attendant, the salesperson at your big box store, your waitress, a home health aide, an office clerk. ALICE cannot always pay the bills, has little or nothing in savings, and is forced to make tough choices such as deciding between quality child care or paying the rent. One unexpected car repair or medical bill can push these financially strapped families over the edge.

ALICE is a hardworking member of the community who is employed yet does not earn enough to afford the basic necessities of life.

ALICE earns above the federal poverty level but does not earn enough to afford a bare-bones household budget of housing, child care, food, transportation, and healthcare. (source)

Between families living below the poverty line due to unemployment or disability and ALICEs, the study discovered that 43% of Americans were struggling to cover basic necessities like rent and food.

Where are families struggling the most?

Some states have more families living in ALICE levels than others. The 3 states with the most families barely surviving paycheck to paycheck are California, New Mexico, and Hawaii. Each of these states saw 49% of families struggling. North Dakota had the lowest ALICE percentage with 32%. You can check how your state fares right here. Despite the lowest unemployment rate since 2000, families all over the country are barely getting by.

The media page of the ALICE website is jammed with headlines that are all too familiar for many Americans:

• Report: Michigan makes little progress in lifting working poor to financial stability

• After a decade of tax cuts — Ohioans in financial hardship

• Louisiana families work hard, but still can’t cover necessities

• 44 percent of Florida households, mostly working poor, struggling to meet basic needs

• Third of New Jersey households can’t afford basic necessities

• 42 percent of Wisconsin households struggle to pay bills

And on and on and on…

The economic collapse of America is here.

While many families are still doing okay, the specter of poverty looms over many of us. Many of us know that we’re one personal financial catastrophe away from disaster. I wrote recently about my own family’s struggle with a large medical bill.

Obviously, I’m not telling you about our financial saga to make myself look bad. I’m telling you because I want you to know that no matter how much you try to do everything right, financial problems can happen to anyone, at any time. Whether you have $100 in the bank or $100,000 in the bank, something can happen that wipes out your emergency fund just like it did mine.

This doesn’t mean that you failed financially – it means that circumstances can affect you, just like they do everyone else, no matter how careful you are.

Before my daughter’s illness, I was doing everything “right.”

• I had enough money in my emergency fund to carry me through 3 lean months

• I had numerous credit cards with zero balances

• My only debt was my car

• My kids are going to school without student loans

• I opted out of health insurance because it was more financially practical to pay cash (and I still agree with that decision)

Everything was great.

Until it wasn’t. (source)

This is a story that probably rings true to more and more familiar to a growing number of families every week.

While my income hasn’t dropped – it’s grown – I am still struggling to pay off those bills and recover. I’ve taken on a significant amount of extra work to get things back under control, and still, I worry it won’t be enough.

Sound familiar?

If it does, it’s because – and of this, I am quite certain – the long-heralded economic collapse of America is upon us. When hard-working families who should be “middle class” can barely afford to eat and keep a roof over their heads, things are only going to devolve further.

Look at other examples of economic collapse

This is just the beginning of a looming collapse in America.

Remember back when Greece began to collapse? It was the same thing – no one could afford the basics and things went downhill pretty quickly from there. It really hit the papers when a strict austerity program was instituted and culminated when a “bank holiday” shut down the financial system for an entire week.

There are similar stories in the UK (where the taxpayers can still fund a 45 million dollar wedding but poor families can’t afford to eat every day), Argentina, and Cyprus.

Jose wrote for us about the warning signs that the collapse of Venezuela was approaching and they’re eerily familiar. Food rationing began, the cost of medical care became prohibitive, the health insurance system began to fail, and people began to make difficult choices about rent versus food.

I don’t know how it could be any more clear than the fact that nearly half of the American population is also making that decision each month.

What’s the answer?

While the United Way hopes to boost the minimum wage, I don’t feel that is the answer because it will drive businesses to let employees go when they can’t afford to pay them. We have seen this happen in fast food establishments in which humans are on their way to being replaced by self-service kiosks and burger-flipping robots.

I believe the only answer is to begin to produce more than we consume. Currently, Americans are like a horde of locusts, working at jobs that produce nothing, but consuming rabidly the imports that feed us, clothe us, and entertain us. We’re looking at economic tariffs on imports that may increase their price up to 40% and our own exports will be subject to tariffs in return.

If you find yourself in a tough spot, these tips from The Cheapskate’s Guide to the Galaxy may help.

1. Audit your situation. See where all your money is going, see how much debt you’re in, and see what the most immediate ramifications will be.

2. Take care of the most important things first. In most situations, keeping your home paid for (rent or mortgage), paying utilities, and making your auto and insurance payments should come first. Take care of the things that will have the most immediate ramifications first.

3. You may have to make some late payments on less vital things. If so, communicate with those to whom you owe money and try to make arrangements. This may affect your credit, but by communicating with them, you can keep damage to a minimum.

4. Cut your expenses. When you audit your situation, you may find some places that you can slash your regular expenses. Don’t hesitate to reduce services that are unnecessary or to whittle down your monthly obligations. (More ideas here)

5. Put a little money back into your emergency fund as soon as possible. This may sound counterintuitive but having a bit of money for minor emergencies means that you won’t need to rely on credit cards for these things, putting you even further in the hole.

6. Pay off your debts. Use the snowball method to attack your debts. Start paying these off AFTER you pay for the things I recommended in step 2.

7. Use the things you have on hand. Delay a trip to the store for as long as possible by planning a menu using the food in your pantry and freezer. (Think about the stockpile challenge we did and use those strategies. Get some ideas for meals from your stockpile in this article) Use the shampoo, soap, and personal hygiene products that you have already instead of buying new products.

8. Raise extra money. This may come from selling things you don’t need, taking on some extra work, or by creating a product or service to sell. However you do this, use the extra revenue wisely to get out of debt and to rebuild your emergency fund. There are more ideas for making money quickly in this issue.

And to harden yourself against the collapse that will only get worse, make these changes to help your family survive.

What can you store?” is not the right question to ask.

“What can you make?” – that’s the right question.

Your focus has to be on long-term sustainability, frugality, and self-reliance.  Don’t get me wrong – a stockpile is sensible and an essential course of action. It should definitely be part of your preparedness plan.

However, you need to also be ready for the time when the supplies in your well-stocked pantry are no longer available.  You need to be able to meet as many of your own needs as possible or you’ll end up being one of those people wearing dirty clothes because you can’t find laundry soap or going hungry because you can’t find any food at the stores – or can’t afford it if you can find it. You need to be ready for the end of a consumer-driven lifestyle, because quite frankly, there may soon come a day when there are no consumer goods to be had. Here are some ways to work on your

Here are some ways to work on your self-reliance:

• Looking for the thrifty answer using things you have on hand, instead of purchasing a solution to every problem

• Fixing things that are broken instead of replacing them

• Eating simple food you prepare from scratch

• Producing as much of your own food as possible

• Learning to forage

• Using “old-fashioned” alternatives for disposable things like diapers, wipes, feminine hygiene supplies, paper towels, and the like

• Learning to make cleaning supplies and soaps, especially from accessible supplies (like vinegar, ash, and foraged natural ingredients)

• Learning to make pantry basics like vinegar, sourdough, and cultured dairy products

• Learning to preserve your harvests to see you through the lean days of winter

• Providing your own services like heat, garbage disposal, and water

• Learning about natural remedies from accessible sources

• Learning to protect your family and property

It’s only by reducing your need for the things sold in stores that you can exempt yourself from the chaos and desperation that will erupt when everyone realizes that an economic collapse has occurred.

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Former Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates defiantly proclaimed that President Trump has taken his “assault on the rule of law to a new level” after he demanded that the Department of Justice (DOJ) investigate allegations of severe misconduct and potential espionage during his 2016 presidential campaign. 

In a Sunday tweet, Trump said “I hereby demand, and will do so officially tomorrow, that the Department of Justice look into whether or not the FBI/DOJ infiltrated or surveilled the Trump Campaign for Political Purposes – and if any such demands or requests were made by people within the Obama Administration!” 

I hereby demand, and will do so officially tomorrow, that the Department of Justice look into whether or not the FBI/DOJ infiltrated or surveilled the Trump Campaign for Political Purposes – and if any such demands or requests were made by people within the Obama Administration!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 20, 2018

Yates, who was fired last year by Trump after she refused to back his controversial “travel ban” which would have temporarily restricted travel into the United States from seven countries with ties to terrorism. The former Deputy AG warned that Trump’s demand to investigate the DOJ “crossed a line.” 

“I think what we’re seeing here is the president has taken his all-out assault of the rule of law to a new level and this time he is ordering up an investigation of the investigators who are examining his own campaign. You know, that’s really shocking,” Yates said on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.”

“I know it was just a tweet but he did say something to the effect of, if I recall correctly, ‘I hereby order.’ And we saw the Justice Department respond to that,” added Yates. “I think [Deputy Attorney General] Rod Rosenstein is trying to strike a balance here between defusing the situation and also protecting the rule of law and the institutional integrity of the department.”

Yates also says that the Justice Department is becoming more and more accustomed to Trump’s behavior, which could threaten the rule of law. 

“We become accustomed to things that the president does, in directing DOJ,” Yates said. “You know, I can remember a time when he would issue a tweet or directive and the reports would be: ‘In an unprecedented act, the president did X or Y.’ It’s not so unprecedented anymore and oftentimes it doesn’t even make it through the full 24-hour news cycle.”

Earlier Monday, former Attorney General Eric Holder tweeted (with uncharacteristically poor grammar) “Trump demand for DOJ investigation is dangerous/democracy threatening. DOJ response is disappointing.There is no basis/no predicate for an inquiry.It ’s time to stand for time honored DOJ independence.That separation from White House is a critical part of our system.”

Trump demand for DOJ investigation is dangerous/democracy threatening. DOJ response is disappointing.There is no basis/no predicate for an https://t.co/UZn0rCUpcK’s time to stand for time honored DOJ independence.That separation from White House is a critical part of our system.

— Eric Holder (@EricHolder) May 21, 2018

Meanwhile, Yates said Trump had been “tearing down the legitimacy” of the DOJ – warning that his attacks on officials such as AG Jeff Sessions and special counsel Robert Mueller are “not normal” – and are becoming normalized. 

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Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

If we want to extend the opportunities for positive social roles to everyone, we have to change the way money is created and distributed in our economy.

One of the most unrecognized dynamics of our era is the structural dependence of our society on our economy. One set of pundits, politicos and academics wring their hands over the fragmenting of civil society (the rise of disintegrative, divisive forces and the decay of integrative forces) and decry the rising inequality that is our economy’s dominant feature, while another set of pundits and academics celebrate the economy’s remarkable adaptability or focus solely on reading financial tea leaves (interest rates, Fed policy tweaks, unemployment rates, etc.)

Those few analysts who escape their respective silos/academic ghettos rarely get past generalities such as the erosion of social mobility, a dynamic that is clearly economic and social. But the precise mechanisms behind the secular erosion of social mobility are lost in platitudes about how A.I. and robots will free us all to be poets or consumers of a vast and endlessly enjoyable leisure.

The key understanding that’s lacking is that economic structures organize and limit the social structures underpinning civil society. To understand why civil society is disintegrating on so many fronts (public health, civil discourse, etc.), we must understand how our economy has failed to support the social structures required for an integrative, inclusive civil society.

Our economy is transforming/adapting as a result of powerful secular trends:the 4th Industrial Revolution (a.k.a. the digital-networked-AI-Big-Data revolution), globalization, the commoditization of ordinary capital and labor, the financial and political dominance of quasi-monopolies and cartels, and perhaps the most unrecognized dynamic, the devaluation of ordinary capital and labor in favor of scarce and often rarified forms of capital and labor in the fields of technology, entrepreneurship and finance.

Collectively, these profound structural changes have created a winner take most economy that favors the politically connected, the privileged (i.e. those who are already wealthy, powerful or holding privileged positions) and those few who have mastered scarce skills in financialization, technology and entrepreneurship.

Everyone below this class has seen their income stagnate or decline, and their household wealth erode unless they happened to own homes in skyrocketing markets or happened to have stock options or some other substantial (and relatively rare) ownership of income-producing assets such as a profitable family business.

My analysis of IRS income found that at most a few million households out of America’s 130 million households have productive assets (i.e. assets that generate net income) that aren’t tied to asset-bubbles in real estate and stocks. Once those bubbles pop (and all asset bubbles eventually pop), then the millions of households who reckoned their bubble-era wealth was a permanent feature of their lives will discover that bubble-era “wealth” is temporary, a phantom sort of wealth that vanishes as quickly as it arose.

The top tier of our economy lives in a different society than the bottom 90%.Some of the socio-political manifestations of this reality are discussed in a lengthyAtlantic essay: The 9.9% Is the New American Aristocracy.

If we read between the lines, we discern the differences in the economic classes are not just differences in higher education credentials or skills–the fantasy that all we need to solve these structural asymmetries is “more job training”–but differences in values, social networks, family structures and perhaps most invisibly to critics left and right alike, in the positive social roles available to their children.

The foundation of any economy is its money, and this is why I keep saying: if you don’t change the way money is created and distributed, you change nothing. Yes, we can tweak various financial parameters and delude ourselves into believing that yet another raft of laws and regulations will actually reverse the erosion of civil society or reverse the rapidly widening gulf between the top 5% and the bottom 95%, but delusions aren’t reality.

If we want to extend the opportunities for positive social roles to everyone, we have to change the way money is created and distributed in our economy.That will require a transformation not just in whiz-bang technology but in the foundations of our entire economy.

These two charts reveal the structure of economic and thus social asymmetry: the top owns capital/prouctive assets…

…the bottom own either a bet on an unstable asset bubble (housing or stocks) or no productive assets at all:

*  *  *

My new book Money and Work Unchained is $9.95 for the Kindle ebook and $20 for the print edition. Read the first section for free in PDF format. If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.

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