Petition To Label George Soros A “Domestic Terrorist” Has 80,000 Signatures

In less than two weeks, a WhiteHouse.gov petition demanding that billionaire investor George Soros be declared a “domestic terrorist,” and that authorities seize his multibillion-dollar fortune, has garnered nearly enough signatures to force the Trump administration to issue a formal response.

The petition, which has attracted 80,000 signatures so far – just 20,000 shy of the 100,000-signature threshold where a response would be required – accuses Soros of being guilty of sedition by financing groups that help support violent Antifa counter-protesters and other dangerous leftist groups.

Last week, we reported that a similar petition, this one asking that President Donald Trump declare Antifa to be a terrorist group, had reached the threshold. The petition is still awaiting a formal response, but in one promising development, Politico reported today that the Department of Homeland Security had described the group’s actions as “domestic terrorist violence” in private memos.

Over the past week, the mainstream media narrative has turned decidedly against Antifa, with the Washington Post, Bloomberg and the Atlantic publishing stories criticizing the group’s violent tactics.

Specifically, the Soros petition accuses the Hungarian-born billionaire of using the “Alinsky model” of terrorist tactics to destabilize the US social order. Saul Alinsky was a Chicago-based community organizer who wrote the infamous “Rules for Radicals," a book meant to be a guide to aid leftists in the violent overthrow of the US government.

Here’s the petition’s full text:

“Whereas George Soros has willfully and on an ongoing basis attempted to destabilize and otherwise commit acts of sedition against the United States and its citizens, has created and funded dozens (and probably hundreds) of discrete organizations whose sole purpose is to apply Alinsky model terrorist tactics to facilitate the collapse of the systems and Constitutional government of the United State, and has developed unhealthy and undue influence over the entire Democrat Party and a large portion of the US Federal government, the DOJ should immediately declare George Soros and all of his organizations and staff members to be domestic terrorists, and have all of his personal an organizational wealth and assets seized under Civil Asset Forfeiture law.”

Soros, as Russia Today explains, has funded organizations and projects that have been criticized for their radical tactics. His Open Society Foundation, along with USAID and the National Endowment for Democracy, have been accused of fomenting revolutions to install US-friendly governments from Serbia, in 2000, to Ukraine, in 2014.

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Ford Touts ‘Positive’ Impacts Of Hurricane Harvey As August Auto Sales Slump

Earlier this week when we noted that Hurricane Harvey was likely to have destroyed more cars than Katrina (see post here), we concluded by predicting that auto OEMs would spin the utter devastation in Houston as a ‘positive’ for their inventory crisis.  Here’s what we said:

“Of course, when the auto OEMs report abysmal sales this Friday they will undoubtedly also tell you how Hurricane Harvey is great for long-term sales because of all the salvaged cars that have to be replaced.”

Now, fast forward just a couple of days and it’s almost as if Ford prepped their August sales call notes from our previous post.  Speaking to analysts this morning, Ford’s CEO gleefully touted all of the upside potential for the auto industry in the wake of Hurricane Harvey noting that replacement demand will be “a little more positive” than even he expected.

We think that the effect of the backfill of demand from Harvey, while we believe we can do that, but trend that a little more positive there as there’s going to be replacement demand in the secondary used market.

 

In terms of our overall impact in the month of August, from a new vehicle or fleet basis from Harvey and possible to say at this point we know it had some impact, which I think is further accretive. So we actually we had a pretty good August numbers, because there had to be some impact. We know as a percent of our internal targets of Houston used in the region which was far and away our weakest performance, if you would expect.

Of course, it’s somewhat difficult to understand exactly how an increase in salvage rates is supposed to solve your bloated inventory problem if you simply turn around and promise higher production…but maybe Ford is just better at math than we are.

Great question, we can’t accurately predict the production ramifications as we don’t really have an assessment yet of, both the existing vehicle car park and our dealer – and a real accurate assessment in our dealer inventory. There will be every indication at this point that we would have to add some production in the backfill process for getting inventory backfill and meeting customer replacement demand.

Finally, just to clarify exactly how positive Hurricane Harvey is for Ford, they estimate that roughly 200,000 – 1,000,000 cars were destroyed in Texas as a result of recent flooding.  Moreover, Ford’s market share is 33% higher in Houston than the rest of the country…which means they should disproportionately benefit from the surge in replacement demand that will inevitably come over the next couple of months, right?

Ironically, despite having perhaps the largest dealer presence of anyone in Houston, Ford notes that they only lost a couple thousand cars because they planned in advance and moved their dealer inventory to higher ground.  Presumably Ford is implying that GM and Toyota simply weren’t smart enough to do that?

First of all, the Houston, Houston is the fourth biggest market in the U.S. and it’s an incredibly important overall vehicle market and one that the Ford Motor Company and the Ford brand is very strong in. We have about 33% higher market share in Houston market than we do nationally. A lot of that is due to – as you say, because of a very rich truck mix, both light duty and super duty in that market. So, our recovery effort obviously is going to be very focused with the dealers on backfill and inventory making used vehicles accessible to them because the damage to both the existing car park and the inventory would affect used as well as new and, you know, we will be working along those lines.

 

We do believe that total losses in our dealer inventory are less than we initially feared, either because of pure luck or dealers making an effort to get the higher ground and advance to the store. And so, we think it’s in the low 1000s, but it’s impossible to accurately determine the number right now. But [indiscernible] we believe is lower than what we thought we have, on the existing car park I assume anywhere from 200,000 to a 1 million, I think it’s impossible to ascertain at this point.

In any event, auto sales for the month of August were predictably chaotic with Hurricane Harvey cutting out several selling days in one of the biggest markets in the country.  Ford and GM managed to ‘beat’ wall street estimates while everyone else missed.  That said, August sales numbers will likely be completely dismissed by investors.

 

And, even though it will be dismissed as noise, GM forecasts that the August monthly SAAR came in at 16.4 million, which nearly breached the lower bound of Ford’s plateau.

 

Meanwhile, GM boasted about ‘solving’ their inventory problem, with days of supply declining to 88 days from 104 days last month, while downplaying that fact that their incentive spending surged 21% MoM from 11.5% in July to 13.9% in August.

GM

 

Finally, as always, all news is good news!

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From Pig’s Blood Assassination Fantasies to the Depressingly Real Afghan Surge

Nope. ||| SnopesOn Aug. 17, President Donald Trump, in the wake of the Barcelona terrorist attack, tweeted that we all should “Study what General Pershing of the United States did to terrorists when caught. There was no more Radical Islamic Terror for 35 years!” On Aug. 21, the president laid out his new Afghanistan policy, reversing campaign rhetoric by backing an open-ended increase of around 4,000 U.S. troops.

The two statements, separated by four days (or four months in Trump News-Cycle Time) were understandably treated as wholly separate events. But they are not. Trump’s allusion to one of his favorite historical fables—an alleged Pershing mass killing which historians unanimously agree there is zero evidence of having ever taken place—advertises a core belief that has always been at tension with the president’s expressed skepticism about military intervention. Namely, that a key tactical error separating America from victory against Islamic terrorists is the self-restricting embrace of “political correctness.”

This formulation, long embraced by the likes of Ralph Peters, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Ben Carson, and Rick Santorum, can mean everything from the refusal to utter the phrase radical Islamic terrorism (“She won’t even mention the words,” Trump clucked at Hillary Clinton during one of their debates), to the broader and vaguer sense that America lacks the “will to win”…to straight-up violations of the Geneva Conventions.

“We’re fighting a very politically correct war,” candidate Trump lamented to Fox & Friends in December 2015. “When you get these terrorists, you have to take out their families.”

In domestic fights against suspected bad guys, there is no equivalent to the countervailing Trumpian foreign policy tendency to eschew nation-building and avoid disastrous wars. This means that taking the proverbial gloves off America’s internal law enforcement cops will likely be a one-way ratchet. President Trump, through his campaigning as the “law and order” candidate, to his appointment of Jeff Sessions as attorney general, issuance of succeeding travel bans, attempts to punish “sanctuary cities,” fondness for draconian drug prohibition, pardoning of Joe Arpaio, mutual affection for recently resigned Milwaukee Sheriff David Clarke, re-starting of the controversial 1033 program of transferring military surplus gear to local law enforcement, and much more, has sent the unmistakable message that he will aggressively move around any perceived impediment—including the judiciary branch and the United States Constitution—to give cops and prosecutors more power. He has never exhibited a drop of anxiety about potentially punishing the innocent or otherwise producing unintended consequences.

That oughtta do it. ||| Fox NewsBut overseas, there had been reason to hope that Trump’s internal conflicts would at least produce some kind of draw. “Afghanistan is, is not going well. Nothing’s going well—I guess we’ve been in Afghanistan almost 17 years,” the president-elect said in a joint interview with Bild and The Times of London back in January, sounding not unlike Ron Paul, at least until his very next words: “But you look at all of the places, now in all fairness, we haven’t let our people do what they’re supposed to do….We haven’t let our military win.”

Why did the bellicose version of the 45th president win out over the intervention-skeptic? Some anti-war voices assert that with the exit of strategist Steve Bannon, the president’s foreign policy has been captured by his generals. That may well have merit.

But Trump, and the people who supported and voted for him, and even man of his #NeverTrump antagonists, have long indulged in the dangerous delusion that military victory is achievable through the removal of proverbial handcuffs. This was true during primary season, through the general election, in the first seven months of his presidency, and after the Afghanistan re-surge announcement. And nowhere has that mindset been made more clear than in Trump’s persistent claims, in the teeth of overwhelming evidence to the contrary, that Gen. John J. “Blackjack” Pershing defeated radical Islamic terrorism for at least a generation by committing a hideous war crime.

On Aug. 15, during an intensely controversial press conference defending his zig-zaggy responses to the Charlottesville protests and aftermath, the president repeatedly stressed that, “I want to make sure, when I make a statement, that the statement is correct….I wanted to see the facts.” Trump got into hot water, and deservedly so, for including among his facts that there were “very fine people” among the original tiki-torch demonstrators, but the gesture toward empirical humility was otherwise appropriate in a street-fighting world gone mad with wildly inaccurate characterizations of basic details. (For an exposition on which, I highly recommend this Matt Labash account in The Weekly Standard of an Antifa beat-down of a non-Nazi in Berkeley.)

Sadly, though not surprisingly, the president’s adherence to rhetorically restrained crisis management did not last even two full days. On Aug. 17, just hours after a van plowed through the crowded streets of Las Ramblas, killing 13, Trump blurted this:

The word “study” here is almost exquisitely inapt. Trump was referencing one of his favorite shaggy-dog stories from the campaign trail, one that he kept on telling, even embellishing, despite widespread, well-documented pushback from academics, news organizations, and political competitors. In calling back to the tale as president, he demonstrated not only a cheerful disregard for the concept of learning, but a preference for military ruthlessness as strategy. As David French headlined it over at National Review, “In One Tweet, Donald Trump Just Spread Fake History, Libeled a Hero, and Admired an Alleged War Crime.”

Candidate Trump first started telling this story in the military-heavy state of South Carolina, where in February of last year he was waging an eventually successful attempt to drive Jeb Bush out of the race by (rightly!) blaming the Bush family for the “big, fat mistake” of the Iraq War. Like Ted Cruz’s vow to find out whether Middle Eastern sand “can glow in the dark,” Trump’s anecdote about Pershing putting down the Moro Rebellion in the Philippines a century ago served as a way to make a critique of neoconservatism go down with a bloody shot of Jacksonianism.

||| New York Daily News“They were having terrorism problems, just like we do,” Trump said at the time, botching the analogy from the outset (the Moros were hardly anybody’s threat to bring a nail bomb to Times Square). “And he caught 50 terrorists who did tremendous damage and killed many people. And he took the 50 terrorists, and he took 50 men and he dipped 50 bullets in pigs’ blood — you heard that, right? He took 50 bullets, and he dipped them in pigs’ blood. And he had his men load his rifles, and he lined up the 50 people, and they shot 49 of those people. And the 50th person, he said: You go back to your people, and you tell them what happened. And for 25 years, there wasn’t a problem. Okay? Twenty-five years, there wasn’t a problem.”

(Sticklers may note that Trump said 25 years here, compared to 35 in his recent tweet; he has also claimed 28 years, 42 years, and so on.)

The fact-checking was immediate, and everywhere. Snopes traced the rumor in part to a Gary Cooper movie. The Associated Press, in a piece printed from coast to coast, described the story as “widely discredited.” Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) called it “bizarre.” Even unironic #MAGA hash-taggers like Lou Dobbs called the tale “apocryphal.”

There are, as far as I can tell, only three historical scraps that remotely resemble Trump’s yarn, and none of them come close to supporting his claim that Pershing (or anyone else) ordered the execution of Moro rebels with blood-soaked bullets. These sources are: 1) a Pershing memoir in which he describes a different man, Col. Frank West, publicly burying killed insurgents “in the same grave with a dead pig,” in order to deter Muslims with fears of going to hell. 2) a letter discovered a half-century after, in which a serviceman (according to one paraphrase) recalls witnessing Pershing “hang a Moro chieftain by the heels over an open grave, kill a pig, and then drop the Moro into the grave with the bloody animal.” That letter was been widely deemed by historians as at best 100 percent uncorroborated, and at worst a “fabrication.” And 3) a 1927 article in the Chicago Tribune, in which:

||| Chicago TribuneCapt. Herman Archer relays the “well-known” tale of Gen. Pershing sprinkling captives with pig’s blood and letting them go.

“Then [Pershing] announced that any Juramentado thereafter would be sprinkled with pig’s blood,” Archer wrote. “And those drops of porcine gore proved more powerful than bullets.”

The correspondent does not seem to have personally witnessed this incident, but seems rather to be relaying a war story shared with him by others. No mass executions were reported by the Tribune, and the copy is peppered with characterizations of Muslim Filipinos as “savage sultans” and “devilish brown men”

So: No executions, no pig-bullets, and the only two sources that posit Pershing as a protagonist in any porcine strategy are deeply suspect. Meanwhile, as PolitiFact and others discovered when interviewing relevant academics, the general’s actual approach on the ground was closer to the opposite of Trump’s portrayal. “He did a lot of what we would call ‘winning hearts and minds’ and embraced reforms which helped end their resistance,” Cameron University military historian Lance Janda told PolitiFact. The fact-checkers’ conclusion? “Historians noted that Pershing pursued a less brutal approach to ‘pacifying’ the rebels in the southern Philippines than Leonard Wood, one of his predecessors.”

There are many options available to someone who makes a gross historical error in public: You can quickly correct it and apologize, perhaps examine whether your mischaracterization of the facts calls into question the conclusions you derived from it, or at minimum drop it from your rhetorical rotation. Trump, again not surprisingly, chose none of the above.

||| NYT MagazineTwo months after the pig’s blood anecdote had been thoroughly vetted, New York Times Magazine published a long account of Trump’s unique campaign stylings. “The mainstays of his rallies,” correspondent Jeff Sharlet wrote, “are parables, in which he channels such [empathetic-to-the-audience] sentiments into full-fledged, multivoiced dramatic scenes. Trump plays every role. There are three scenes in current rotation; if Trump worked off a set list, they might be labeled ‘The Call,’ ‘The Snake’ and ‘The Bullet.'”

“The Bullet” was the fabricated Pershing anecdote. And the way Trump kept performing it throughout the 2016 campaign tells us a lot about the mindset governing his foreign policy in 2017 and beyond. This Sharlet excerpt is on the long side, but worth reading in full:

”Can you imagine what these people say about the United States? How weak we are?” […]

”There’s a story I tell,” he says. ”This is when we were strong.” The crowd cheers. Many have heard it before. He asks if they want to hear it again. ”Should I tell it?” He asks three times.

It begins with a horse, and on the horse there’s a general. The year is 1919; the place is the Philippines; the general is John J. Pershing, known as Black Jack. Trump does not name the war. It’s not the point. ”Tremendous terror problem,” that’s what you need to know, and that the terrorists are Muslims. The point is Pershing’s solution:

“They catch 50 terrorists. … Today we read ’em their rights, take care of ’em, ba ba [the audience boos], we feed them the best food, make sure they have television, we give ’em areas to pray, it’s a wonderful thing. We’re wonderful people. We’re wonderful, wonderful, stupid, stupid people [laughter]. So General Pershing, tough, tough guy … 50 terrorists … what happens is he lines ’em up to be shot. [A man shouts, ”Yeah!”] Lines people up to be shot. … And as you know, swine, pig, all of that is a big problem for them. Big problem. He took two pigs, they chopped them open. [Trump chops his hand.] Took the bullets that were going to go and shoot these men. [Holds up an imaginary bullet pinched between thumb and finger.] Took the bullets. The 50 bullets. Dropped them in the pigs, swished them around [swishes] so there’s blood all over those bullets.[Cheering.] Had his men, instructed his men [voice rising] to put the bullets into the rifles [thumps lectern]. They put the bullets into the rifles and they shot [he shouts the word; another man shouts, ”Yeah!”] 49 men.”

He tells it again, puts the imaginary bullets into an imaginary rifle and shoots his imagined 49 Muslims. ”Boom.”

He leans forward, squints and runs his words together: ”a-pig-infested-bullet-in-each-one.”

A woman shouts, ”Yeah!”

Then, Trump says, they dumped the bodies into a mass grave—he waves his hand across the podium, sweeping the corpses in—and threw the gutted pigs on top of them. They took the final bullet—he holds it up again—and they gave it to the last man. ”And they said, ‘Here, take this bullet'”—he mimes handing it over – “‘go back to your people'”—he jabs a finger at the last man’s ”people,” and yet another man shouts, ”Yeah!”— “‘and explain what we just did!’ ”

Trump pauses. The crowd cheers. ”This is history, folks.”…We can choose to win, or we can choose to lose. For Trump, this is not a choice.

But the war-crimes strategy of foreign policy turns out to be more complicated to enact in the real world, as candidate Trump found out in March of last year when he had to walk back previous statements that service-members are “not going to refuse me, believe me.” So how do you apply the anti-P.C., will-to-win, no-more-weakness bravado within the more established Beltway parameters?

||| Fox NewsYou spend more money on the military. You make threatening noises to would-be adversaries. You increase droning, drop scarier bombs, double down on dirty wars. And yes, you surge. Before you know it, many of the same people who have beaten you up for bad ideas and worse manners will be standing loyally by your side.

“The gloves are off inside Afghanistan,” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) enthused moments after Trump’s Aug. 21 announcement. “I am proud of the fact that he listened to the generals and [showed] the will to stand up to radical Islam. I’m relieved he didn’t take the advice to withdraw, which would had been disastrous….This is a war between radical Islam and the rest of us. They hate our guts and not going to stop fighting us until we kill them and stabilize Afghanistan.”

Choosing Lindsey Graham’s style of juvenile chest-puffery over Sebastian Gorka’s may make for better media relations, but it moves America even further away from extricating itself from bloody military conflicts and expensive commitments that have no currently forseeable end point. Whether through fictitious pig-bullet or all-too-real semi-occupation of a miserable country, the fantasy that the United States can somehow will itself to victory is filling body bags, not ticker-tape parades.

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Amazon Has Twice As Many Fulfillment Centers As The Rest Of The Entire US Retail Industry

Ask a number of analysts what is the secret to Amazon’s retail (if not overall) success, and 9 out of 10 times the answer will be its meticulous, seamless, and incredibly efficient distribution and logistics system. Or, as Credit Suisse puts it, Amazon has stumbled on (really created) a new distribution model: a “pull” (or demand) model in which the Distribution Center is at the center of the shopping/retail experience, vastly different from the old “push” model, which centered around the retail store.

It’s also what Credit Suisse calls the “Amazon Effect”, and is the biggest (not so) secret behind the company’s retail success. Here is how Credit Suisse describes it:

Amazon has helped fuel the demand chain by offering best-in-class fulfillment capabilities and guaranteeing quick response delivery of packages. Amazon commits to providing free 2-day and deeply discounted 1-day shipping to Prime members (~50M-plus).

 

In this quick response world, inventory availability within a close enough proximity to the customer is key. Amazon has worked to build out its distribution center network with 230 active fulfillment centers (ex. pantry/fresh food DCs) in the United States.

 

In our opinion, Amazon’s network enables the company to fulfill in the new “pull” distribution model. This is in vast contrast to companies in our coverage which follow the traditional “push” model and only have a few key distribution centers located around the country.

This is also known as the Amazon moat, or why Jeff Bezos’ company, well on its way to becoming a mononpolist across many industries, remains insurmnoutnable. Conveniently, it can also be quantified by the number of fulfillment, or distribution centers across the country in comparison to the rest of the retail sector. As the chart below shows, as of this moment, with 230 DCs, Amazon has 40x more logistics centers across the US than the average number of distribution centers across the Credit Suisse coverage universe, and roughly twice as much as the rest of the entire retail sector combined!

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“Nobody Has To Eat The Losses” – Houston’s Hot Mess & ‘Conditioned’ America

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

It wasn’t until more than a week after Hurricane Katrina slammed into New Orleans in 2005 that the full extent of the damage was recognized and so it will go with the hot mess where Houston used to be. Mostly, it is inconceivable that the business activity which made Houston the nation’s fourth largest city and, according to Chris Martenson, equal to the 10th largest economy in the world, will ever return to what it was before August 26, 2017.

The major activity there has been the refining and distribution of oil products, and no activity is more central to the functioning of the US economy. So the public and our currently clueless leaders across the political spectrum, plus a legacy news media lost in the carnival of race and gender freak shows, is about to discover the dynamic relationship between energy and an industrial economy.

The pivot in this relationship is banking, which enables the conversion of oil’s raw power into everything else that goes on in a so-called advanced economy. The popular assumption is that federal disaster relief can compensate for all losses. That assumption may go out the window with the Houston flood of 2017. And no amount of federal aid can compensate for the hours, days, and weeks that will tick by as businesses struggle to return to something like their former level of normal operation.

Many businesses will never recover, especially the smaller ones that support the big one — the little tool and die shops, the construction outfits, the trucking and shipping concerns, the riggers and pipefitters, the cement companies, and so on. All of that activity existed in highly rationalized chains of on-time production and service and nothing will be on-time in Houston for a long time to come. The arguments over insurance coverage have not even begun, and then there is the question of how businesses in this perpetual flood zone will renew their insurance. Or how might they relocate to higher ground? And how do they pay for that? And where is higher ground in this vast, swampy lowland?

The public has been conditioned by frequent natural disasters to think that nobody has to eat the losses, so that in effect loss doesn’t exist, just as the nation’s central bank has engineered the belief that risk no longer exists in the management of capital. We sure had a nice demonstration of the latter, with the Dow inching over the 22,000 hashmark in overnight futures trading today. The exertions of the Federal Reserve in propping up the stock markets will have to go pedal-to-metal now to make up for the hole in economic activity that Houston represents.

Meanwhile congress is left to dither over two conjoined financial emergencies at once: authorizing emergency aid to Houston, and resolving the debt ceiling problem. The fault lines are already visible in the ill-feeling left over from Texas’s congressional delegation voting against aid for Hurricane Sandy’s rip through New York and New Jersey. Texas Senator Ted Cruz, for one, has reinvented his political philosophy overnight to accommodate federal aid for natural disasters, something he was not keen on before September 26.

I’d assume that these politicians have some normal human sympathies — yes, really — but that these emotions won’t stand in the way of their agenda for mutual self-destruction. Even if they manage to cobble together some kind of emergency aid package for Houston, the process will coincide with the Treasury running out of supposedly “actual” money — that is, money which can be accounted for by some method besides check-kiting. Another assumption du jour is probably the idea that accounting no longer matters, that bankruptcy no longer means anything. Pretty soon, those logical fallacies will manifest in an accelerated falling value of the US dollar.

Somewhere in this reverberating hot mess stands a character named President Trump. He acted out the customary disaster visitation ceremony last week, but I predict that the as-yet-revealed after-effects of Hurricane Harvey will put him in deeper and stinkier hot water than George W. Bush splashed through with Katrina.

Meanwhile, what’s that monster called Irma doing out there in the Atlantic?

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In Warrantless Cellphone Search Case, It’s the Trump Administration vs. the 4th Amendment

The U.S. Supreme Court will hear oral arguments sometime in its coming term in one of the most significant Fourth Amendment cases in years.

At issue in Carpenter v. United States is the question of whether the FBI violated the Fourth Amendment when it obtained, without a search warrant, the cellphone records of suspected armed robber Timothy Carpenter. With those records, federal officials identified the cell towers that handled the suspect’s calls and then proceeded to trace back his whereabouts during the time periods in which his alleged crimes were committed. That information was later used against Carpenter in court.

The Trump administration strongly urged the Supreme Court not to hear this case. Why? Because “a person has no Fourth Amendment interest in records created by a communications-service provider in the ordinary course of business that pertain to the individual’s transactions with the service provider,” the administration told the Court in its brief in opposition to the petition for certiorari.

What is more, the administration argued, “the acquisition of a business’s records does not constitute a Fourth Amendment ‘search’ of an individual customer even when the records reflect information pertaining to that customer.”

This cramped view of the Fourth Amendment is extremely dangerous to the privacy rights of all Americans in the age of the smart phone. As the Supreme Court recognized in the 2014 case of Riley v. California, in which the Court unanimously told the police to “get a warrant” before searching cellphones incident to arrest, “modern cell phones are not just another technological convenience. With all they contain and all they may reveal, they hold for many Americans ‘the privacies of life.’ The fact that technology now allows an individual to carry such information in his hand does not make the information any less worthy of the protection for which the Founders fought.”

Consider the sort of information a typical cellphone user shares with a cellphone company. It is much more than just numbers dialed or texted; it includes email addresses of correspondents, the URLs of websites visited, and, of course, the physical locations from which the device itself was accessed. Shouldn’t the Fourth Amendment offer some genuine protection for such highly personal private information?

As a back-up argument, the Trump administration claims that even if the Fourth Amendment is held to apply to the cell-site information at issue in this case, the government’s actions against Carpenter should still be ruled constitutional on the grounds that they are a “reasonable” exception to the normal requirements of the Fourth Amendment.

“Society has a strong interest in both promptly apprehending criminals and exonerating innocent suspects as early as possible during an investigation,” the Trump administration argued. According to the government, in other words, it takes too long and causes too much hassle for law enforcement officials to bother getting a search warrant in cases like this.

But that view turns the Fourth Amendment on its head. One of the main purposes of the Fourth Amendment—as well as other guarantees in the Bill of Rights—is to restrain overzealous government agents before they run roughshod over the rights of individuals. The Trump administration, by contrast, wants to loosen such constitutional restrictions on the cops.

It is a heartening sign that the Supreme Court agreed to hear this important case over the objections of the Trump administration. Hopefully the Court will ultimately reject the administration’s disfiguring interpretations and issue a decision that gives the Fourth Amendment its due.

Related: Use a Cellphone, Void the Fourth Amendment?

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Sex Sells, and David Simon’s The Deuce Shows How: New at Reason

'The Deuce'In 1971, the theaters in the New York City ‘burbs were showing a film called Summer of ’42, a wartime coming-of-age story in which sex is wondrous, terrifying, and inextricably linked to romance.

Meanwhile, down in the dank little grindhouse joints of the combat zone around Times Square, you could see Terror in Orgy Castle, The Runaway Virgin, and countless little 8mm loops of burned-out hookers performing the filthiest acts of which the unwired 20th-century mind could conceive. In them, sex was tawdry, tired, and toneless.

Yet all that was to be stood on its head; gauzy romance was about to take a back seat to commercial coitus that was glamorous, exciting and very, very profitable. HBO’s The Deuce is the spellbinding story of how flesh became flash, how the sex trade went from back alleys to boardrooms. Television critic Glenn Garvin takes a look.

View this article.

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McCain Returns To D.C. With A Bang; Blasts “Inexperienced, Poorly Informed, Impulsive” Trump

Coming off an extended break in his home state of Arizona where he’s been undergoing cancer treatments, John McCain returned to Washington D.C. with a bang after penning an op-ed in the Washington Post taking direct aim at President Trump. 

Among other things, McCain called Trump an “inexperienced, poorly informed and implusive” person who must be kept in check by Congress.

That has never been truer than today, when Congress must govern with a president who has no experience of public office, is often poorly informed and can be impulsive in his speech and conduct.

 

We must respect his authority and constitutional responsibilities. We must, where we can, cooperate with him. But we are not his subordinates. We don’t answer to him. We answer to the American people. We must be diligent in discharging our responsibility to serve as a check on his power. And we should value our identity as members of Congress more than our partisan affiliation.

McCain

 

Ironically, after bashing the leader of his own party with a name-calling tirade that would make any 3rd-grader proud, McCain goes on to call for an immediate end to the gridlock in Washington D.C. and a return to an era of bipartisan cooperation on drafting new legislation.

Congress will return from recess next week facing continued gridlock as we lurch from one self-created crisis to another. We are proving inadequate not only to our most difficult problems but also to routine duties. Our national political campaigns never stop. We seem convinced that majorities exist to impose their will with few concessions and that minorities exist to prevent the party in power from doing anything important.

 

That’s not how we were meant to govern. Our entire system of government — with its checks and balances, its bicameral Congress, its protections of the rights of the minority — was designed for compromise. It seldom works smoothly or speedily. It was never expected to.

 

It requires pragmatic problem-solving from even the most passionate partisans. It relies on compromise between opposing sides to protect the interests we share. We can fight like hell for our ideas to prevail. But we have to respect each other or at least respect the fact that we need each other.

 

I argued during the health-care debate for a return to regular order, letting committees of jurisdiction do the principal work of crafting legislation and letting the full Senate debate and amend their efforts.

 

We won’t settle all our differences that way, but such an approach is more likely to make progress on the central problems confronting our constituents. We might not like the compromises regular order requires, but we can and must live with them if we are to find real and lasting solutions. And all of us in Congress have the duty, in this sharply polarized atmosphere, to defend the necessity of compromise before the American public.

Presumably the irony of these two conflicting themes was lost on McCain…

* * *

Below is the full op-ed from John McCain as originally published by the Washington Post:

Americans recoiled from the repugnant spectacle of white supremacists marching in Charlottesville to promote their un-American “blood and soil” ideology. There is nothing in their hate-driven racism that can match the strength of a nation conceived in liberty and comprising 323 million souls of different origins and opinions who are equal under the law.

 

Most of us share Heather Heyer’s values, not the depravity of the man who took her life. We are the country that led the free world to victory over fascism and dispatched communism to the ash heap of history. We are the superpower that organized not an empire, but an international order of free, independent nations that has liberated more people from poverty and tyranny than anyone thought possible in the age of colonies and autocracies.

 

Our shared values define us more than our differences. And acknowledging those shared values can see us through our challenges today if we have the wisdom to trust in them again.

 

Congress will return from recess next week facing continued gridlock as we lurch from one self-created crisis to another. We are proving inadequate not only to our most difficult problems but also to routine duties. Our national political campaigns never stop. We seem convinced that majorities exist to impose their will with few concessions and that minorities exist to prevent the party in power from doing anything important.

 

That’s not how we were meant to govern. Our entire system of government — with its checks and balances, its bicameral Congress, its protections of the rights of the minority — was designed for compromise. It seldom works smoothly or speedily. It was never expected to.

 

It requires pragmatic problem-solving from even the most passionate partisans. It relies on compromise between opposing sides to protect the interests we share. We can fight like hell for our ideas to prevail. But we have to respect each other or at least respect the fact that we need each other.

 

That has never been truer than today, when Congress must govern with a president who has no experience of public office, is often poorly informed and can be impulsive in his speech and conduct.

 

We must respect his authority and constitutional responsibilities. We must, where we can, cooperate with him. But we are not his subordinates. We don’t answer to him. We answer to the American people. We must be diligent in discharging our responsibility to serve as a check on his power. And we should value our identity as members of Congress more than our partisan affiliation.

 

I argued during the health-care debate for a return to regular order, letting committees of jurisdiction do the principal work of crafting legislation and letting the full Senate debate and amend their efforts.

 

We won’t settle all our differences that way, but such an approach is more likely to make progress on the central problems confronting our constituents. We might not like the compromises regular order requires, but we can and must live with them if we are to find real and lasting solutions. And all of us in Congress have the duty, in this sharply polarized atmosphere, to defend the necessity of compromise before the American public.

 

Let’s try that approach on a budget that realistically meets the nation’s critical needs. We all know spending levels for defense and other urgent priorities have been woefully inadequate for years. But we haven’t found the will to work together to adjust them. The appropriators can’t complete their spending bills, and we’re stuck with threats of a government shutdown and continuing resolutions that underfund national security. A compromise that raises spending caps for both sides’ priorities is better than the abject failure that has been our achievement to date.

 

Let’s also try that approach on immigration. The president has promised greater border security. We can agree to that. A literal wall might not be the most effective means to that end, but we can provide the resources necessary to secure the border with smart and affordable measures. Let’s make it part of a comprehensive bill that members of both parties can get behind — one that values our security as well as the humanity of immigrants and their contributions to our economy and culture.

 

Let’s try it on tax reform and infrastructure improvement and all the other urgent priorities confronting us. These are all opportunities to show that ordinary, decent, free people can govern competently, respectfully and humbly, and to prove the value of the United States Congress to the great nation we serve.

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Bitcoin Surge To New Record Highs Above $4800 Amid Renewed ETF Hope

Bitcoin has surged to a new record high this morning over $4850 amid increased debt ceiling anxiety, continuing demand from South Korea and Japan amid the North Korea chaos, a potential short squeeze, and renewed hopes of SEC approval of a Bitcoin ETF.

The six biggest virtual currencies are all higher today…

NOTE – Litecoin and Veritaseum are among the day's best performers.

Bitcoin is now up 165% from pre-Fork-anxiety lows in late July…

 

Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas notes that Dalia Blass is set to head the SEC Division of Investment Management – which regulates, among other things ETFs. What is of note is that she is a lawyer at Ropes & Gray – the same form representing the Winklevoss twins Bitcoin ETF case. This has prompted excitement that a 'proper' (not GBTC, see below), Bitcoin ETF may be sooner than expected.

As CoinTelegraph reports, the SEC famously rejected two Bitcoin ETF proposals earlier this year, citing largely unregulated markets. They did leave themselves an out, however. The Commission indicated that in the event that a regulated futures market for Bitcoin were developed, they might reconsider. Not long ago, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) gave LedgerX permission to create such a futures market. The SEC agreed to hear an appeal from the Winklevoss twins earlier this year, but few watchers expected the twins to receive a different answer.

With Blass at the helm and regulated futures markets being developed, however, this could change.

Some have argued that the recent rise in the price of cryptocurrencies is driven by anxiety over the debt ceiling in the US…

And also of note, as Alistar Milne notes, there are now more open short Bitcoin positions than longs on Bitfinex, potentially causing a short squeeze…

*  *  *

Finally we note that not everyone is buying into Bitcoin…

First, GBTC (Bitcoin Investment Trust) – which we have discussed numerous times (here and here most recently) – made some headlines overnight as it topped $1000 (implying a $10,000 price for Bitcoin) and Citron's Andrew Left went on CNBC and explained why he was short…

 

The reaction this morning was an immediate dump (but buyers came right back in)

 

Despite still trading at over 100% premium to NAV

Aditionally, CoinTelegraph reports that David Ader, chief macro strategist at Informa Financial Intelligence, is now trying to show how Bitcoin's gains resemble that of the Nasdaq Telecommunications Index before the tech bubble burst.

An overly frothy market

Placing Bitcoin’s growth chart over that of the Nasdaq Telecommunications Index, and its subsequent rise, Adler is surmising that Bitcoin has hit the same peak and thus should be ready to plummet in a similar style.

Nasdaq reached its peak in 2000 before a monumental crash and for Adler, the similarities are there for Bitcoin’s run to this most recent all time high.

"This is the price chart for an overly frothy market, in my opinion. I just don't see anything quite as comparable to this in bubblelicious terms," said Ader, a former top-rated bond market strategist.

"I think it's going to come to a sorry ending," Ader said. "I don't know anybody who's actually used a Bitcoin for any purpose legal or otherwise. This looks like an overly frothy market and frothy markets lose their froth."

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How Many More People Have to Die From Heroin and Fentanyl Before We Try Something Different?

A panel of experts recently projected that 500,000 Americans could die of opioid-related overdoses between now and 2027, surpassing the annual death toll from AIDS during the worst years of that epidemic. Some of the experts polled put the potential opioid-related death toll at 650,000 over the next 10 years.

We can reach that grizzly milestone with our eyes closed if we just keeping doing what we’ve done for the last decade. But a future in which opioid and opiate-related overdoses claim more lives than a deadly communicable disease is no more inevitable than our present moment was a decade ago.

We got here by reacting poorly to the increase in prescription opioid abuse and associated deaths. There may be no point in asking how many more people would be alive today if we had made different choices when we first recognized this problem, but it’s instructive to revisit the early days of this crisis anyway.

According to data from the Centers for Disease Control, just over 2,000 people died from heroin-related overdoses in 2005. In 2015, heroin killed 12,989 people. The total number of drug overdose deaths in 2005 was 29,813. In 2015, 52,404.

We have a pretty good idea of what happened between 2005 and 2015. Law enforcement cracked down on pill mills, the Food and Drug Administration admonished pharmaceutical companies to make their drugs harder to snort and inject, and the CDC and Health and Human Services discouraged doctors from prescribing pain medication.

In addition to being public health policies, these were also price signals. The black market responded accordingly with cheap heroin and then cheap illicit fentanyl. As Vox recently reported, there are many places throughout the U.S. where black market heroin and fentanyl now kill far more people than prescription pills.

With each new death record—and we are setting them every year now—the overdose problem moves further out of a realm regulators can control into one they can’t and never will. Oddly enough, they don’t seem to realize it.

Earlier this summer, Kentucky’s legislature passed a law creating a three-day limit on opioid prescriptions for acute pain, meaning that no prescription can be for more than three days worth of pain relievers. In Massachusetts, Gov. Charlie Baker wants a five-year mandatory minimum for any person who provided the illicit drugs that led to an overdose death.

The Justice Department recently asked the U.S. Sentencing Commission to require every person convicted of distributing fentanyl to serve prison time, regardless of how little fentanyl is involved, whether they knew they were distributing fentanyl at all, and whether anyone died as a result. As Dr. Jeffrey A. Singer writes at Townhall, there’s also a push to conduct more surveillance of doctors and their patients.

These are the same strategies that got us here.

The list of things we refuse to try, meanwhile, is depressingly long. Heroin maintenance programs—of which there is not a single one in the U.S.—would provide fentanyl-free gear to people who can’t or don’t want to enter medication-assisted therapy; and safe injection sites—which we also don’t have, despite their success in our neighbor to the north (and, uh, Iran)—would provide a place for those people to use under medical supervision.

We should be removing barriers to offering medication-assisted therapy; there should be no limit on how many patients a doctor can help at one time and HHS shouldn’t require days’ worth of training in order to administer the associated medicines.

Anybody should be able to buy naloxone wherever they can buy Tylenol. No one should face incarceration or arrest for reporting a drug overdose.

There are more libertarian policies, of course, but the ones I’ve just listed wouldn’t require the U.S. to do something novel or break any international agreements. They would require us to accept that our problems with drugs, like most problems that universally afflict our species, cannot be eradicated at the population level.

If we don’t try these things now, we shouldn’t expect a future that’s better than our present.

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