Enraged Puerto Rico Mayor Slams Trump Over Hurricane Death Toll Denial

President Trump came under fire on Thursday ahead of Hurricane Florence slamming into the East Coast, after he accused Democrats of inflating the death toll from last year’s hurricanes in Puerto Rico in order “to make me look bad.” 

“3000 people did not die in the two hurricanes that hit Puerto Rico,” Trump tweeted. “When I left the Island, AFTER the storm had hit, they had anywhere from 6 to 18 deaths. As time went by it did not go up by much. Then, a long time later, they started to report really large numbers, like 3000…” 

“…..This was done by the Democrats in order to make me look as bad as possible when I was successfully raising Billions of Dollars to help rebuild Puerto Rico. If a person died for any reason, like old age, just add them onto the list. Bad politics. I love Puerto Rico!

Trump’s tweets dispute an independent report by George Washington University, commissioned by Puerto Rico officials, which raised the official death toll from 64 to 2,975

The George Washington University study comes as the one-year anniversary of Hurricane Maria approaches on Sept. 20, and Congress considers the island government’s request for federal aid to rebuild from the storm.

But where did the massive revision come from, and how were the nearly three thousand people missed the first time around? In one word, statistics, according to the Wall Street Journal

The George Washington University researchers estimated the number of excess deaths by analyzing death certificates and other mortality data, and comparing the number of deaths during the designated period to past mortality patterns. They calculated the total number of deaths in the period was 22% higher than the number of fatalities that would have been expected, the researchers said. –WSJ

Trump’s comments have ignited a firestorm of commentary over Twitter, including San Juan Mayor Carmen Yulín Cruz, who accused Trump of minimizing Puerto Rico’s plight. 

Puerto Rico Governor Ricardo Rossello also pushed back against Trump’s claims in a Thursday statement over Facebook.

“Puerto Rico’s victims shouldn’t have their pain questioned. Today I saw how the number of victims was questioned along with the process of excess deaths,” said Rossello, adding “I ask the president of the United States for all agencies to invest the necessary resources to keep working in favor of the people of Puerto Rico.

Trump has repeatedly argued that his administration’s response to Hurricane Maria was a success, while Cruz – after initially complimenting the response, broke down during a press conference for more help – describing the situation as “something akin to genocide” before accusing Trump of treating Puerto Ricans like “animals.”

“So, Mr Trump, I am begging you to take charge and save lives. After all, that is one of the founding principles of the United States…If not, the world will see how we are treated not as second-class citizens but as animals that can be disposed of. Enough is enough.”

Trump fired back, tweeting: “The Mayor of San Juan, who was very complimentary only a few days ago, has now been told by the Democrats that you must be nasty to Trump”…

In a string of retweets,Trump also shared this Department of Defense video of FEMA workers and national guardsmen distributing food and water to desperate Puerto Ricans. It also showed the stockpiles of supplies that have been sent to the island by the military.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Florence has weakened from a Category 3 to a Category 2, however it is still expected to cause widespread property damage and flooding. 

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Here Is Apple’s iPhone Pricing Strategy In One Chart

Apple’s latest – and disappointing – annual iPhone product unveiling also revealed the two biggest headaches troubling CEO Tim Cook today: first is the lack of a new “must have” gadget (Apple watch EKG aside), with the iPhone failing to impress the faithful for the second year in a row, and prompting sellside analysts to conclude that for one more year there won’t be a “must have”  iPhone supercycle.

Second is that as a result of this lack of creativity and innovation, and perhaps due to market saturation, iPhone sales have now been largely stagnant for three years, with AAPL reporting a modest decline in iPhone sales in the last quarter.

Which leads us to the most closely watched part of yesterday’s Apple presentation: the price points of the various iPhones, which will be key in establishing both projected and realized average selling prices. And since total revenue is a function of total sales x prices, Apple is now focusing exclusively on the price point, realizing that volumes may have topped out.

For the best visual representation of just how inflationary Apple’s “price hiking” strategy is, we present readers with the following chart from Horace Dediu, which shows that after pricing the original iPhone 1 around $500 a decade ago, the top end iPhone XS Max 512 will now cost $1,449 – or as much as a top of the line notebook computer – with many of the “well-equipped” new models selling for over $1,000, while a variety of legacy models will still be available for as low as $500.

In other words, a price point for everyone, with Apple naturally hoping, that the bulk of the new iPhones sold will be among the highest pricing tiers.

Will this strategy, coupled with the magnetic attraction of Apple’s ecosystem work, or will Apple’s lack of innovation and chronic recent plagiarism of the best Samsung features eventually end up costing Cook remains to be seen. The first channel checks of the new iPhone will be available in late October when the new generation of iPhones goes on sale. Check back then.

One thing is clear: for all those who claim that new technology is supposed to be deflationary, Tim Cook’s strategy is anything but.

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Trump Denies WSJ Report, Says “Under No Pressure To Make Deal With China”

The reason why the market spiked yesterday just before noon, if briefly, was a WSJ report that the Trump admin is reaching out to China for a new round of trade talks, in an effort “to give Beijing another opportunity to address Washington’s concerns over trade issues before the Trump administration implements additional tariffs on Chinese imports.”

Many took this with a grain of salt – after all this would be the third time in the past month that the US and China were supposedly trying to break the trade war deadlock – but more importantly, the person behind the outreach was noted globaliset Steven Mnuchin who as we said yesterday, “is well known to be for a resumption of better trade relations”, while trade hawk Navarro has been pushing for a far more hard line stance with China.

To resolve this confusion, we said “Perhaps the best option is just to wait for Trump to tweet his own thoughts on the matter.”

Well, moments ago Trump did just that, when he poured cold water on the diplomatic implications of the WSJ’s report, tweeting that “The Wall Street Journal has it wrong, we are under no pressure to make a deal with China, they are under pressure to make a deal with us.”

Why? Because as we also said yesterday, Trump remains convinced that he has all the bargaining leverage because – according to the stock market – he is winning the trade war with Beijing, to wit:

Our markets are surging, theirs are collapsing. We will soon be taking in Billions in Tariffs & making products at home.

So where does that leave us? Well, pretty much where we were before the WSJ report, or as Trump put it, “If we meet, we meet?”

While any other day, the Trump tweet – which could be seen as a catalyst for further trade disputes – would be bullish for the dollar and bearish for the S&P, today the combination of the CPI miss and the hawkish ECB has led to virtually no response at all in the market, at least for now, and stocks remained strongly higher, with the S&P above 2,900 and just shy of new all time highs.

That said, Chinese assets were clearly far more impacted, and the AUD slumped just as the the offshore Yuan quickly dropped over 200 pips on the Trump comment.

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Albert Edwards: Why We Are Destined To Repeat The Mistakes Of The Past

With everyone and their grandmother opining on the 10 year anniversary of the start of the global financial crisis, it was inevitable that the strategist who predicted the great crash (and according to some has been doing the same for the past decade) – SocGen’s Albert Edwards – would share his thoughts on what he has dubbed the “10th anniversary of chaos.”

In it, the SocGen skeptic slams the trio of Bernanke, Geithner and Paulson who have been not only penning op-eds in recent days, but making the media rounds in a valiant attempt to redirect the spotlight from the culprits behind the crisis, writing that “they just never recognized beforehand that the economy was a massive credit bubble, just like it is now” and points to central bank arrogance as the “main reason why we should still be scared.”

Of course, just like 10 years ago, as long as the market keeps going up, nobody is actually “scared” and instead everyone is enjoying the ride (just as the legion of crypto fans who are no longer HODLing). The “fear” only comes when the selling begins, and by then it’s always too late to do anything about the final outcome as yet another bubble bursts.

Below we excerpt some of the observations from Edwards’ “A thought on the 10th anniversary of chaos”

Central Bank arrogance is one of the main reasons why we should still be scared. As a former official at the NY Fed, Peter Fisher, recently noted, “The Fed has acknowledged no failures. All the experiments have been successful, every one: no failures, no negative side-effects, no perverse consequences, only diminishing returns.”

Most press outlets are looking back ten years to the anniversary of the bankruptcy of Lehman’s and the ensuing financial crisis. To be sure, those were torrid times. Maybe it was because it was only two weeks before my wedding that I didn’t see Lehman’s bankruptcy as quite as important as most other commentators. Maybe I was a bit distracted.

Without doubt, the Lehman’s bankruptcy caused the financial system to seize up and for many this was the cause of the ensuing deep downturn and hence the focus on this one high profile event. But I have always found this explanation disingenuous and often an ex-post justification for those who had drunk the kool-aid and never foresaw the financial crisis and economic slump – and that includes policymakers.

For even before the Sept 15 Lehman bankruptcy, the US economy had already collapsed into deep recession. In September 2008 we now know US payrolls declined 443,000 after a fall of 277,000 in August, and an average 190,000 decline in Q2. Although these numbers have been revised down, even at that time the Sept 2008 was reported as a fall of 159,000 – having already lost 600,000 jobs that year (September’s 2008 survey was taken the week before the Lehman’s bankruptcy, so was unaffected by the fallout).

I was amused to read the NY Times op-ed, co-authored by the three leading US policy makers at the time of the crisis (Ben Bernanke, Tim Geithner and Henry Paulson). In a piece entitled “What We Need to Fight the Next Financial Crisis” they lament the fact that “Congress has taken away some of the tools that were crucial to us during the 2008 panic. It’s time to bring them back (link).”

Tools! Apparently, they always need more tools. Rubbish, they had all the tools necessary. They just never recognised beforehand that the economy was a massive credit bubble – just like it is now. It was worse than that. In 2005 Bernanke had even derided an interviewer who asked him about the possibility that the housing bubble could burst. And I also remember Shelia Bair, who headed up the FDIC (the Federal bank liquidator) at the time, and had successfully seized and closed many banks during that period, including the massive Washington Mutual, lamenting that she had not even been consulted about Lehman’s.

Regulation…if only the policymakers had more regulation… I invite you to re-read this seminal note from my former colleague, Dylan Grice, which explains how more bank regulation since the crisis has merely succeeded in giving us an illusion of safety – link.

I also like Jim Grant’s riposte to the above cited NYT op-ed (H/T Zero Hedge, link). Grant quotes Peter Fisher, formerly a senior official at the NY Fed (see quote above in bold). Speaking last year at Grant’s conference, Fisher offered a commanding critique of the crisis-era response led by the authors of the NYT op-ed. I think the quote above just about sums up the despair many like me feel about our policymakers and why they are destined to repeat the mistakes of the past.

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Hillary Slips Up, Tweets Furious Screed Based On Debunked Kavanaugh Smear

Hillary Clinton went on 6-tweet tirade Wednesday against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, citing a debunked fake news story that Kavanaugh referred to birth-control pills as “abortion-inducing drugs.”

I want to be sure we’re all clear about something that Brett Kavanaugh said in his confirmation hearings last week,” Hillary confidently tweeted, adding “He referred to birth-control pills as “abortion-inducing drugs.” That set off a lot of alarm bells for me, and it should for you, too.”

The rest of the screed, which you can read by clicking on her tweet, condemns Kavanaugh for making it “clear that safe and legal abortion isn’t the only fundamental reproductive right at grave risk if he is confirmed. Access to birth control is, too.” 

Except, Kavanaugh never said that… 

And Hillary either didn’t get the message, or is choosing to deceive her 23.4 million followers. 

He was very clearly citing someone else in a response he gave to a question by Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) – which California Democratic Rep. Kamala Harris’s office then deceptively edited to make it appear that Kavanaugh said the quote. 

Harris’s deception was so egregious that Politifact and several other fact checkers called her out on it after several conservative outlets called her out. 

Via Politifact: 

Harris’ tweet takes Kavanaugh’s statement out of context.

Harris cut an important second out of the clip — the attribution. Kavanaugh said, “They said filling out the form would make them complicit in the provision of the abortion-inducing drugs that they were, as a religious matter, objecting to.”

“They” refers to a Catholic nonprofit group, Priests for Life. Kavanaugh was answering a question from Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, about a case in which he argued Priests for Life shouldn’t have to provide women with the contraceptive coverage mandated by the Affordable Care Act for religious reasons. –Politifact

Watch the deceptively edited video:  

In short, Kamala Harris – a Democratic 2020 hopeful, edited Kavanaugh’s response – ostensibly to deceive people, which Hillary Clinton then repeated several days after Harris was called out by multiple outlets. 

Senator Orrin Hatch (R-UT) dinged Clinton for peddling fake news: 

What gives?

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Google Responds To Leaked Video As Damning History Of Bias Haunts Company; Parscale Calls For Investigation

Google has cobbled together a response to an internal video leaked to Breitbart which depicts the company’s top brass comforting each other as they mourn Hillary Clinton’s 2016 election loss. For example: 

In a late Wednesday statement, Google spokeswoman Riva Sciuto said “For 20 years, everyone at Google has been able to freely express their opinions at these meetings” (just not over email – like conservative former employee James Damore, who is currently suing Google for discrimination after he was fired for criticizing the company’s diversity policies).

“Nothing was said at that meeting, or any other meeting, to suggest that any political bias ever influences the way we build or operate our products,” Google’s statement continues. “To the contrary, our products are built for everyone, and we design them with extraordinary care to be a trustworthy source of information for everyone, without regard to political viewpoint.” 

Except several examples suggest otherwise… 

Searching Google images for the word “idiot” (still) displays pictures of Trump and his sons, while a leaked company email read on Monday night by Fox News‘s Tucker Carlson reveals that the company helped create ads and donated funds to a partisan Latino group which physically bussed voters to vote for Hillary Clinton during the 2016 election. 

Google also “accidentally” left Trump off of search for “presidential candidates” in July 2016, after he won the GOP primary. The company chalked it up to a “technical bug” which occurred because “Only the presidential candidates participating in an active primary election were appearing.” 

Trump left off of “presidential candidate” search results due to “technical bug” 

 After fix: 

In another example, a viral video created by SourceFed – which Google has removed from YouTube – depicts several autocomplete search results for “Hillary Clinton” which the company claims proves Google “has been actively altering search recommendations in favor of Hillary Clinton’s campaign.” 

The company, which was also accused of hiding negative articles on Clinton, denied the accusations.

Evidence of Google helping Hillary goes back years.

Fmr. Google Chairman Eric Schmidt With Hillary Campaign “Staff” Badge

In an April 15, 2014 email from Google’s then-Executive Chairman Eric Schmidt found in the WikiLeaked Podesta emails, titled “Notes for a 2016 Democratic Campaign,” Schmidt tells Cheryl Mills that “I have put together my thoughts on the campaign ideas and I have scheduled some meetings in the next few weeks for veterans of the campaign to tell me how to make these ideas better.  This is simply a draft but do let me know if this is a helpful process for you all.” 

Another email from February 2015 suggested that the Google Chairman remained active in its collaboration with the Clinton campaign: John Podesta wrote that Eric Schmidt met with HR “about the business he proposes to do with the campaign. He says he’s met with HRC” and adds that “FYI. They are donating the Google plane for the Africa trip”

Meanwhile, according to a Breitbart report by Allum Bokhari, “By inserting negative search suggestions under the name of a candidate, search engines like Google can shift the opinions of undecided voters by up to 43.4 percent, according to new research by a team at the American Institute for Behavioral Research and Technology and reported exclusively by Breitbart News.” 

Parscale calls for an investigation

In response to the viral video leaked to Breitbart, President Trump’s 2016 digital campaign manager and 2020 re-election campaign manager, Brad Parscale, called for an investigation over Twitter. 

Parscale humorously added: “Only @Google could make @facebook look like the good guys. Mark should send them a gift.” 

Responses have varied from WTF to Collusion… 

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Euro Surges As Draghi Forecasts “Significantly Stronger Core Inflation”

While the ECB indeed trimmed its GDP outlook for 2018 and 2019 as previewed previously, cutting 2018 and 2019 GDP from 2.1% and 1.9% to 2.0% and 1.8%, respectively, and mirroring the recent reversal in the Citi Eurozone surprise index…

… the market ignored this and instead focused on Mario Draghi’s assessment that the expansion is “still solid” while noting that “uncertainty around the inflation outlook is receding.”

Commenting on inflation, Draghi said that while “measures of underlying inflation remain generally muted” he countered that “domestic cost pressures are strengthening, broadening” as “uncertainty around inflation outlook is receding” and expects “underlying inflation to pick up toward end of year, rise gradually in medium term.”

Subsequently, Draghi also said that the ECB projects “significantly stronger core inflation.”

The mood was boosted by Draghi’s comments on, saying that while “we have to wait and see” so far, all the major Italian ministers and the PM have said they will respect the EU’s budgetary requirements, and there has been no contagion out of Italy to Europe yet.

This, together with the latest miss in US inflation as CPI missed across the board one day after PPI posted its first contraction since January 2017 which slammed the dollar, turned out to be a “perfect storm” for EUR shorts, and forced a broad squeeze in the heavily shorted currency while dollar longs were forced to unwind positions.

As a result, the EURUSD jumped +0.5%, setting a session high of 1.1688 with the pair briefly rising above 100-DMA but stalling ahead of technical resistance at 1.1690.

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Zuckerberg: Facebook Needs Help From “Journalists, Tech Firms And Governments” To Stop Election Hacking

Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg won praise for her testimony before Congress last week (though her confused responses to questions about hate speech on the company’s platform aggravated SJWs). But sadly for Facebook shareholders, regulatory threats (not to mention AG Jeff Sessions’ “openness” to investigating tech giants for consumer protection or antitrust violations) continues to weigh on the company’s share price.

And with FANG stocks still limping away from their worst market rout in months, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg has published a 3,000 note on his Facebook page summarizing the company’s efforts to combat election interference on its platform.

Zuck

While Zuck touted certain “triumphs” like the company’s use of algos to delete more than 1 billion fraudulent accounts purportedly created by foreign agents, and the company’s push to hire another 10,000 humans to weed out more sophisticated imposters, he also admitted that Facebook can’t secure elections in the US – and indeed around the world – on its own. For that, it needs assistance from journalists, the government and – most importantly – other tech firms.

“The last point I’ll make is that we’re all in this together. The definition of success is that we stop cyberattacks and coordinated information operations before they can cause harm. While I’d always rather Facebook identified abuse first, that won’t always be possible. Sometimes we’ll only find activity with tips from governments, other tech companies, or journalists. We need to create a culture where stopping these threats is what constitutes success — not where the information that uncovered the attack came from. For the complexity of the challenges ahead, this is the best way forward.”

According to Zuck, Thursday’s note will be the first of several updates to be published on his page before the end of the year.

Meanwhile, the company’s shares have edged higher in pre-market trading after shedding nearly 3% on Wednesday.

Read Zuck’s full note below:

* * *
My focus in 2018 has been addressing the most important issues facing Facebook — including defending against election interference, better protecting our community from abuse, and making sure people have more control of their information. As the year wraps up, I’m writing a series of notes outlining how I’m thinking about these issues and the progress we’re making. This is the first note, and it’s about preventing election interference on Facebook.

These are incredibly complex and important problems, and this has been an intense year. I am bringing the same focus and rigor to addressing these issues that I’ve brought to previous product challenges like shifting our services to mobile. These issues are even harder because people don’t agree on what a good outcome looks like, or what tradeoffs are acceptable to make. When it comes to free expression, thoughtful people come to different conclusions about the right balances. When it comes to implementing a solution, certainly some investors disagree with my approach to invest so much in security.

We have a lot of work ahead, but I am confident we will end this year with much more sophisticated approaches than we began, and that the focus and investments we’ve put in will be better for our community and the world over the long term.
Overview

One of our core principles is to give people a voice. That’s why anyone can post what they want without having to ask permission first. We also believe deeply in the power of connection. When people can connect with each other, they can build communities around shared interests wherever they live in the world.

But we’ve also seen how people can abuse our services, including during elections. Our responsibility is to amplify the good and mitigate the harm.

In 2016, our election security efforts prepared us for traditional cyberattacks like phishing, malware, and hacking. We identified those and notified the government and those affected. What we didn’t expect were foreign actors launching coordinated information operations with networks of fake accounts spreading division and misinformation.

Today, Facebook is better prepared for these kinds of attacks. We’ve identified and removed fake accounts ahead of elections in France, Germany, Alabama, Mexico, and Brazil. We’ve found and taken down foreign influence campaigns from Russia and Iran attempting to interfere in the US, UK, Middle East, and elsewhere — as well as groups in Mexico and Brazil that have been active in their own country. We’ve attacked the economic incentives to spread misinformation. We’ve worked more closely with governments — including in Germany, the US and Mexico — to improve security during elections. And we’ve set a new standard for transparency in the advertising industry — so advertisers are accountable for the ads they run. Security experts call this “defense in depth” because no one tactic is going to prevent all of the abuse.

While we’ve made steady progress, we face sophisticated, well-funded adversaries. They won’t give up, an they will keep evolving. We need to constantly improve and stay one step ahead. This will take continued, heavy investment in security on our part, as well as close cooperation with governments, the tech industry, and security experts since no one institution can solve this on their own.

In this note, I’ll outline the main efforts we’re focused on, what we’ve found and learned over the last two years, and what more we need to do to help protect the free and fair elections at the heart of every democracy.

Fake Accounts

One of our most important efforts is finding and removing fake accounts. We’ve found that fake accounts are the source of much of the abuse of our services, including during elections.

With advances in machine learning, we have now built systems that block millions of fake accounts every day. In total, we removed more than one billion fake accounts — the vast majority within minutes of being created and before they could do any harm — in the six months between October and March. You can track our progress in removing fake accounts through our

Transparency Report.

Like most security issues, this is an arms race. The numbers are so large because our adversaries use computers to create fake accounts in bulk. And while we are quickly improving our ability to detect and block them, it is still very difficult to identify the most sophisticated actors who build their networks manually one fake account at a time. This is why we’ve also hired a lot more people to work on safety and security — up from 10,000 last year to more than 20,000 people this year.

The information operations we’ve seen, including during the 2016 election, typically use networks of fake accounts to push out their messages while hiding their real identities. Increasingly, we also see our adversaries co-opting legitimate accounts in an effort to better hide their activity. By working together, these networks of accounts boost each other’s posts, creating the impression they have more widespread support than they actually do. For example, we recently identified and took down several fake accounts involved in promoting a legitimate protest event on Facebook, claiming they were attending, and encouraging others to do the same.

One of the challenges we face is that the content these pages share often does not violate our Community Standards — the rules that govern what is allowed on Facebook. In the example above, the event would have been allowed under our policies, as would encouraging others to attend. This was clearly problematic though, and the violation was that the accounts involved were inauthentic. In another example, a campaign we found tried to sow division by creating both pro-immigration and anti-immigration pages. Again, many of the posts on these pages were similar to posts from legitimate immigration activists, but they were clearly problematic as part of a coordinated inauthentic campaign.

Identifying and removing these campaigns is difficult because the amount of activity across our services is so large. In these cases, we’ll typically get a lead that we should look into suspicious activity — it’s either flagged by our technical systems or found by our security team, law enforcement, or an outside security expert. If we find accounts that look suspicious, we investigate them to see what other accounts and pages they’ve interacted with. Over the course of an investigation, we attempt to identify the full network of accounts and pages involved in an operation so we can take them all down at once. We’ll often involve the government and other companies and, where possible, we’ll tell the public. While we want to move quickly when we identify a threat, it’s also important to wait until we uncover as much of the network as we can before we take accounts down to avoid tipping off our adversaries, who would otherwise take extra steps to cover their remaining tracks. And ideally, we time these takedowns to cause the maximum disruption to their operations.

In the last year, as we have gotten more effective, we have identified and taken down coordinated information campaigns around the world, including:

• We identified that the Internet Research Agency (IRA) has been largely focused on manipulating people in Russia and other Russian-speaking countries. We took down a network of more than 270 of their pages and accounts, including the official pages of Russian state-sanctioned news organizations that we determined were effectively controlled and operated by the IRA.

• We found a network based in Iran with links to Iranian state media that has been trying to spread propaganda in the US, UK, and Middle East, and we took down hundreds of accounts, pages, and groups, including some linked to Iran’s state-sponsored media.

• We recently took down a network of accounts in Brazil that was hiding its identity and spreading misinformation ahead of the country’s Presidential elections in October.

• Although not directly related to elections, we identified and removed a coordinated campaign in Myanmar by the military to spread propaganda.

We know we still have work to improve the precision of our systems. Fake accounts continue to slip through without detection — and we also err in the other direction mistakenly taking down people using our services legitimately. These systems will never be perfect, but by investing in artificial intelligence and more people, we will continue to improve.

One advantage Facebook has is that we have a principle that you must use your real identity. This means we have a clear notion of what’s an authentic account. This is harder with services like Instagram, WhatsApp, Twitter, YouTube, iMessage, or any other service where you don’t need to provide your real identity. So if the content shared doesn’t violate any policy, which is often the case, and you have no clear notion of what constitutes a fake account, that makes enforcement significantly harder. Fortunately, our systems are shared, so when we find bad actors on Facebook, we can also remove accounts linked to them on Instagram and WhatsApp as well. And where we can share information with other companies, we can also help them remove fake accounts too.

Misinformation

Fake accounts are one of the primary vehicles for spreading misinformation — especially politically-motivated misinformation and propaganda. However, we’ve found that misinformation is spread in three main ways:

• By fake accounts, including for political motivation;

• By spammers, for economic motivation, like the ones that have been written about in Macedonia; and

• By regular people, who often may not know they’re spreading misinformation.

Beyond elections, misinformation that can incite real world violence has been one of the hardest issues we’ve faced. In places where viral misinformation may contribute to violence we now take it down. In other cases, we focus on reducing the distribution of viral misinformation rather than removing it outright.

Economically motivated misinformation is another challenge that may affect elections. In these cases, spammers make up sensationalist claims and push them onto the internet in the hope that people will click on them and they’ll make money off the ads next to the content. This is the same business model spammers have used for a long time, and the techniques we’ve developed over the years to fight spammers apply here as well.

The key is to disrupt their economic incentives. If we make it harder for them to make money, then they’ll typically just go and do something else instead. This is why we block anyone who has repeatedly spread misinformation from using our ads to make money. We also significantly reduce the distribution of any page that has repeatedly spread misinformation and spam. These measures make it harder for them to stay profitable spamming our community.

The third major category of misinformation is shared by regular people in their normal use of our services. This is particularly challenging to deal with because we cannot stop it upstream — like we can by removing fake accounts or preventing spammers from using our ads. Instead, when a post is flagged as potentially false or is going viral, we pass it to independent fact-checkers to review. All of the fact-checkers we use are certified by the non-partisan International Fact-Checking Network. Posts that are rated as false are demoted and lose on average 80% of their future views.

Taking these strategies together, our goal around misinformation for elections is to make sure that few, if any, of the top links shared on Facebook will be viral hoaxes.

Ads Transparency and Verification

Advertising makes it possible for a message to reach many people, so it is especially important that advertisers are held accountable for what they promote and that fake accounts are not allowed to advertise.

As a result of changes we’ve made this year, Facebook now has a higher standard of ads transparency than has ever existedwith TV or newspaper ads. You can see all the ads an advertiser is running, even if they weren’t shown to you. In addition, all political and issue ads in the US must make clear who paid for them. And all these ads are put into a public archive which anyone can search to see how much was spent on an individual ad and the audience it reached.

This transparency serves a number of purposes. People can see when ads are paid for by a PAC or third party group other than the candidate. It’s now more obvious when organizations are saying different things to different groups of people. In addition, journalists, watchdogs, academics, and others can use these tools to study ads on Facebook, report abuse, and hold political and issue advertisers accountable for the content they show.

We now also require anyone running political or issue ads in the US to verify their identity and location. This prevents someone in Russia, for example, from buying political ads in the United States, and it adds another obstacle for people trying to hide their identity or location using fake accounts.

One challenge we faced when developing this policy is that most of the divisive ads the Internet Research Agency ran in 2016 focused on issues — like civil rights or immigration — and did not promote specific candidates. To catch this behavior, we needed a broad definition of what constitutes an issue ad. And because a lot of ads touch on these types of issues, we now require many legitimate businesses to get verified, even when their ads are not actually political. Given that the verification process takes a few days, this is frustrating to many companies who rely on our ads to drive their sales.

When deciding on this policy, we also discussed whether it would be better to ban political ads altogether. Initially, this seemed simple and attractive. But we decided against it — not due to money, as this new verification process is costly and so we no longer make any meaningful profit on political ads — but because we believe in giving people a voice. We didn’t want to take away an important tool many groups use to engage in the political process.

Independent Election Research Commission

I want to ensure we’re doing everything possible to understand the different ways adversaries can abuse our services — as well as the impact of these services on elections and democracy overall. No matter how much we dig, or how impartial we aim to be, we recognize the benefits of independent analysis to understand all the facts and to ensure we’re accountable for our work.
To do this, we set up an independent election research commission earlier this year with academics and foundations. Its role is to identify research topics and select — through a peer-review process — independent research to study them. The commission will share Facebook data with those researchers so they can draw their own conclusions about our role in elections, including our effectiveness in preventing abuse, and so they can publish their work without requiring approval from us. We’ve worked with industry experts to ensure this is done in a way that protects everyone’s privacy.

Our goal is not only to improve our own work on elections and civic discourse, but also to create a new model for how academics can work with the private sector. As the press has reported, we have had serious issues with academics using data from our services, including most recently the situation involving Cambridge University researcher Alexandr Kogan and Cambridge Analytica. A few years earlier we faced concerns about research done internally to understand whether social networks make people happier or more depressed.

As a result of these controversies, there was considerable concern amongst Facebook employees about allowing researchers to access data. Ultimately, I decided that the benefits of enabling this kind of academic research outweigh the risks. But we are dedicating significant resources to ensuring this research is conducted in a way that respects people’s privacy and meets the highest ethical standards. Longer term, my hope is that this type of research gains widespread support and grows into a broader program covering more areas in the coming years.

Coordinating With Governments and Companies

Preventing election interference is bigger than any single organization. It’s now clear that everyone — governments, tech companies, and independent experts such as the Atlantic Council — need to do a better job sharing the signals and information they have to prevent abuse. Coordination is important for a few reasons:

First, bad actors don’t restrict themselves to one service, so we can’t approach the problem in silos either. If a foreign actor is running a coordinated information campaign online, they will almost certainly use multiple different internet services. And beyond that, it’s important to remember that attempts to manipulate public opinion aren’t the only threat we face. Traditional cyberattacks remain a big problem for everyone, and many democracies are at risk of attacks on critical election infrastructure like voting machines. The more we can share intelligence, the better prepared each organization will be.

Second, there are certain critical signals that only law enforcement has access to, like money flows. For example, our systems make it significantly harder to set up fake accounts or buy political ads from outside the country. But it would still be very difficult without additional intelligence for Facebook or others to figure out if a foreign adversary had set up a company in the US, wired money to it, and then registered an authentic account on our services and bought ads from the US. It’s possible that we’d find this ourselves since there are often multiple ways to identify bad actors. However, this is an example where tighter coordination with other organizations would be very useful.

Our coordination with governments and industry in the US is significantly stronger now than it was in 2016. We all have a greater appreciation of the threats, so everyone has an incentive to work together. And in countries like Germany, for example, we shared information directly with the government to improve security during last year’s elections. But real tensions still exist. For example, if law enforcement is tracking a lead’s public activity on social networks, they may be reluctant to share that information with us in case we remove the account.

The last point I’ll make is that we’re all in this together. The definition of success is that we stop cyberattacks and coordinated information operations before they can cause harm. While I’d always rather Facebook identified abuse first, that won’t always be possible. Sometimes we’ll only find activity with tips from governments, other tech companies, or journalists. We need to create a culture where stopping these threats is what constitutes success — not where the information that uncovered the attack came from. For the complexity of the challenges ahead, this is the best way forward.

Conclusion

In 2016, we were not prepared for the coordinated information operations we now regularly face. But we have learned a lot since then and have developed sophisticated systems that combine technology and people to prevent election interference on our services.

This effort is part of a broader challenge to rework much of how Facebook operates to be more proactive about protecting our community from harm and taking a broader view of our responsibility overall.
One of the important lessons I’ve learned is that when you build services that connect billions of people across countries and cultures, you’re going to see all of the good humanity is capable of, and you’re also going to see people try to abuse those services in every way possible.

As we evolve, our adversaries are evolving too. We will all need to continue improving and working together to stay ahead and protect our democracy.

via RSS https://ift.tt/2Of0Wi4 Tyler Durden

“Even Rescuers Can’t Stay”: Deadly Rain, Storm Surges Expected Even As Florence Weakens To Cat 2

With roughly 24 hours remaining until Hurricane Florence makes landfall in southeastern North Carolina, the storm has reportedly weakened to a Category 2 Hurricane. But meteorologists warn that this isn’t any reason for comfort: Because while the storm’s winds have slowed (from around 140 mph to a maximum of 125 mph), the potential for devastation from what’s expected to be one of the most extreme storms in American history remains acute.

And while the storm is no longer considered a “major” hurricane, CNN reports that its reach has expanded. And with the first wind bands set to batter the state beginning later Thursday, the Associated Press warned.

Despite the downgrade, officials warned that the storm will still have a devastating impact.

“Do you want to get hit with a train or do you want to get hit with a cement truck?” said Jeff Byard, an administrator with the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

Analysts are projecting as much as $30 billion in losses due to the storm. In what looks like a best case scenario, Florence eventually could strike as merely a Category 1 hurricane with winds less than 100 mph, but that’s still enough to cause at least $1 billion in damage, Weather Underground meteorology director Jeff Masters said.

According to the NHC, The storm is expected to unleash extreme storm surges, historic flooding, and damaging winds beginning later Thursday, with the southeastern portion of North Carolina set to bear the brunt of Florence’s wrath. Rainfall could range between 20 inches to a staggering 40 inches. Between the rains and the storm surge, the flooding could be “catastrophic,” the Washington Post warned. As the storm moves inland on Friday, a pocket of tropical-storm-force winds nearly 400 miles wide will engulfing much of southern North Carolina and nearly all of South Carolina.

As of 5 am on Thursday, the storm’s winds were topping out at around 110 mph as it barreled northwest at 17 mph. Per the NHC, the storm is about 205 miles east-southeast of Wilmington, NC. The storm’s winds extend 80 miles from its center, while tropical-storm-force winds extend 195 miles outward.

Some of the heavy rains associated with the storm could creep into neighboring Georgia, which could see rains between 6 inches and 12 inches. In the Carolinas, the rain could break North Carolina’s record for a tropical storm, 24 inches, which was set in 1999 near Wilmington. As the storm moves inland, Virginia, West Virginia , Maryland, Washington and Pennsylvania could also experience heavy rains of up to 8 inches, with downed trees and flooding also a possibility.

Here’s a breakdown on how large the storm surge could be in certain areas (courtesy of the Washington Post) at its highest, the surges could reach up to 13 feet:

  • Cape Fear to Cape Lookout, including the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo and Bay Rivers: 9 to 13 feet
  • North Myrtle Beach to Cape Fear: 6 to 9 feet
  • Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet: 6 to 9 feet
  • South Santee River to North Myrtle Beach: 4 to 6 feet
  • Ocracoke Inlet to Salvo, N.C.: 4 to 6 feet
  • Salvo to North Carolina/Virginia Border: 2 to 4 feet
  • Edisto Beach to South Santee River: 2 to 4 feet

State officials continued their warnings after issuing evacuation orders affecting some 3 million people in the Carolinas. The storm’s lurch south led Georgia’s governor to declare a state of emergency Wednesday afternoon for all 159 counties, with a population of 10.5 million people. In the Carolinas and Virginia, more than 10 million people are under a storm watch. Hundreds of schools have closed, and federal officials have warned that the millions of people in the storm’s path could be without electricity for weeks if high winds down power lines and massive rainfall floods equipment. There are 16 nuclear reactors in the region, and crews at the one closest to where landfall is forecast readied the station, at Brunswick, for a shutdown.

Chart

President Trump has approved emergency disaster declarations for the Carolinas and Virginia, which frees up funds for relief and recovery. “We’re as ready as anybody has ever been,” he said after a briefing with FEMA chief Brock Long and Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen.

“North Carolina, my message is clear,” a grim Gov. Roy Cooper said at a briefing Wednesday. “Disaster is at the doorstep and it’s coming in.”

“You put your life at risk by staying,” North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper said. “Don’t plan to leave once the winds and rains start.”

Both Cooper and South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster told the more than 1 million people who have been directed to leave that if they don’t do so, they will be on their own.

Even some hardened locals who have weathered previous storms are deciding to leave, according to CNN.

“Even the rescuers cannot stay there,” he said.

Already, more than 300,000 people have left South Carolina. In Carolina Beach, authorities have instituted a 24-hour curfew and ceased allowing traffic to the island via the only bridge between the island and the mainland. The town is less than 5 feet above sea level and officials worry that as many as 1,000 of the town’s 6,300 residents plan to stick it out.

Susan Faulkenberry Panousis has stayed in her Bald Head Island, North Carolina home during prior hurricanes, but not this time. She packed up what she could and took a ferry. “When that last ferry pulls out…it’s unnerving to see it pull away and know, ‘That’s the last chance I have of getting off this island,'” she said Wednesday.

The storm has captivated astronauts aboard the International Space Station. Some of them have taken to tweeting pictures of the storm.

But even after Florence passes, several other storms are brewing in the Atlantic that could soon threaten areas along the eastern seaboard and the Gulf Coast.

Storm

Satellite imagery shared with the Associated Press shows the sheer size of the storm:

And as we pointed out earlier, farmers in the region are scrambling to find shelter for their hogs as the storm looks set to cause massive disruptions to the hog farming industry.

 

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Dollar, Yields Tumble As Consumer Price Growth Slumps, Disappoints

Consumer Price growth slowed dramatically in August, missing expectations by the most since May 2017 (following the first monthly drop in PPI since Jan 2017) sparking a drop in the dollar and bond yields.

 

 

As once again the rise was dud to services prices…

The moderation in the core CPI reflected a 1.6% drop in volatile apparel prices.

Even so, the broader slowdown follows data showing a surprise drop in producer prices and suggests the path of inflation could be softer than expected.

At the same time, freight prices and rising wages, along with tariffs and counter- levies, may keep putting upward pressure on inflation. Additionally, the index for medical care fell 0.2% for a second month.

The shelter category, responsible for about one-third of the CPI, showed a 0.3 percent gain, in line with recent increases but slowed YoY, up 3.4% YoY, down from 3.5% and rent inflation rose 3.61% YoyY, down from 3.63%

Prices of new automobiles were unchanged, the first month without a gain since April, while used cars and trucks rose 0.4 percent.

Airfares rose 2.4% following a 2.7% advance in July, amid higher fuel prices, one of the biggest costs for airlines.
Gasoline prices increased 3% in August from the prior month, the most since April, and were up 20.3% Y/Y

All of which sparked a drop in the dollar…

and bond yields…

 

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