Tag: finance

If Europe Wants To Remain On The World Stage, It Must Resist Trump On Iran

Authored by Patrick Cockburn via Counterpunch.org,

“Iraq is at the muzzle of the gun,” says Ali Allawi, Iraqi historian and former minister, speaking of the increased turmoil expected to follow the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement.

It is not only Iraq which is in danger: an escalating confrontation between the US and Iran will affect the whole region, but its greatest impact will be in Syria and Iraq where wars have long been raging and Washington and Tehran are old rivals.

The US will rely at first on the reimposition of economic sanctions on Iran to force it to comply with US demands and hopefully bring about regime change in Tehran. But, if this does not work – and it will almost certainly fail – then there will be a growing risk of military action either carried out directly by the US or through “green-lighting” Israeli airstrikes.

Iran is for the moment reacting cautiously to Trump’s denunciation of the 2015 accord, portraying itself as the victim of arbitrary action and seeking to spur the EU states into taking practical steps to resist imposing draconian sanctions along the lines of those that were imposed before 2015. Even if this does not happen, it will be important for Iran that the Europeans should only grudgingly cooperate with the US in enforcing sanctions, particularly on Iranian oil exports.

A problem for the US is that Trump has made the Iranian nuclear deal negotiated by Barack Obama the issue on which he will test the limits of US power which he had pledged to expand. But the agreement is internationally popular and is seen to be working effectively in denying Iran the ability to develop a nuclear device. The US is therefore becoming self-isolated, with full support only from Israel and Saudi Arabia, in the first weeks of a crisis that could go on for years.

Already Trump’s determination to sink the deal forever has involved marginalising and humiliating France, Germany and UK. They had pleaded for it to be preserved but made more palatable to the US by separate agreements on ballistic missiles and other issues. Trump seems to have enjoyed the procession of European leaders from Emmanuel Macron to Boris Johnson asking for compromise, only to go away empty-handed.

If the European leaders now go along with sanctioning Iran, there will be even less reason for Trump to take their views seriously in future. They have already seen their attempt to appease him on climate change fail to produce anything, so they either have to accept that they have less influence and a reduced role in the world or make a serious attempt to preserve the nuclear accord.

But even if they do so, the US will be able to put intense economic pressure on Iran and its trading partners. Banks and companies are terrified of incurring the ire of the US Treasury and facing massive fines for even an unintentional breach of sanctions. Even if EU governments want their companies to go on investing in Iran, they may consider the risk too great.

Sanctions are a powerful but blunt instrument, take a long time to work and usually do not produce the political dividends expected by those who impose them. The Iranian rial may fall and hyperinflation return to 40 per cent, but this will most likely not be enough if Iran returns to enriching uranium. It has already said that it is not going to keep abiding by its part of the nuclear agreement if it is not getting any of the economic benefits promised.

What will the US do then? This is the crucial question for the Middle East and the rest of the world. Trump has just torpedoed any diplomatic solution to what he sees as the threat of Iran developing a nuclear bomb. The only alternative is a military response, but this would have to be more than a few days of intense airstrikes. Anything less than total war would not win for Trump the kind of results he says he wants.

Iran may be weak economically, but politically and militarily it is in a strong position in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, the countries likely to provide the main arena for the coming crisis. In all three places it is Iran’s fellow Shia who are in control and see the US as an ally of the Sunni states in what is in large part a sectarian Shia-Sunni conflict.

Has the Trump administration thought any of this through? The crisis is beginning to feel very much like that in the buildup to the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Some of the same figures, such as the national security adviser John Bolton, are the very same neoconservatives who believed that invading and occupying Iraq would be an easy business. They sound as if they are bringing the same blend of arrogance and ignorance to their coming confrontation with Iran.

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Hypersonic Weapons: The Perfect Tool For Asymmetrical Warfare

Authored by Federico Pieraccini via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

As recently confirmed in a debate at the Brookings Institute by the Commandant of the United States Marine Corps, General Robert Neller, “there are military areas in which the United States maintains a technological advantage [over Russia and China], others in which there is substantial parity, and others in which the United States is lagging behind, revealing a technological gap with its peer competitors.”

The last point applies to weapons systems designed to operate at hypersonic speed. Let us start with the simple and pragmatic definition offered by The National Interest of hypersonic vehicles and weapons:

A hypersonic vehicle is one that moves through the atmosphere at a minimum speed of five times that of sound, or Mach 5. A hypersonic cruise missile travels continuously through the air employing a special high-powered engine. A hypersonic glide vehicle [HGV] is launched into space atop a ballistic missile, after which it maneuvers through the upper reaches of the atmosphere until it dives towards its target. Both vehicle types can carry either conventional or nuclear weapons.

As we can see, we are speaking here about technological developments that require money and scientific structures of the highest level to achieve such significant and complex results. The difficulty of implementing systems of such complexity is very well explained by Defense Review:

One of DR’s primary questions about the Russian and Chinese HAA/HGV [Hypersonic Attack Aircraft/Hypersonic Glide Vehicle] tech is whether or not the vehicles generate a plasma field/shield around it that can effectively camouflage the vehicle and/or disrupt an incoming high-powered laser beam, and thus avoid both detection and destruction during its flight. Russian scientists and military aircraft designers/developers have been experimenting with plasma field generation tech since the late 1970’s, so one would think they’re pretty far along by now. Oh, and let’s not forget China’s recent development of a new ultra-thin, lightweight “tunable” UHF microwave radar-absorbing stealth/cloaking material for both manned and unmanned combat aircraft and warships. The hits just seem to keep on coming. Its enough to drive a military defense analyst to drink.

Another area of complexity concerns the communication between the hypersonic flight carrier and and its land-based components, especially if the re-entry vehicle is to be maneuvered remotely.

The fundamental component in performing a hypersonic flight naturally lies in the engines, used to reach speeds higher than Mach 7. There are ongoing studies by all of these countries concerning scramjet engines, essential for the purposes of producing hypersonic weapons. By employing a scramjet engine, and mixing it with other technologies (jet engine or ramjet), one would enable the aircraft and missiles to reach hypersonic speeds, as Beijing’s Power Machinery Research Institute explains:

The turbo-aided rocket-augmented ram/scramjet engine (TRRE), which uses rocket augmentation to aid the transition into the supersonic and hypersonic flight regimes, could be the world’s first combined cycle engine to fly in 2025, paving the way for hypersonic -space planes and single-stage space launchers.

DARPA also explains the US point of view on this particular area of research:

Advanced Full Range Engine program (AFRE) which is intended as a reusable hypersonic engine that combines an off-the-shelf jet engine with a dual mode ramjet engine.

War Is Boring definitively clarifies the concept using simpler words:

Turbojet? Ramjet? Scramjet? A turbojet spins a lot of blades to compress and heat incoming air. A ramjet moves so fast that the engine is already hot and compressed enough to ignite the fuel. A scramjet – short for “supersonic combustion ramjet” – is just that, a ramjet where the incoming air is moving at supersonic speeds.

The world of hypersonic weapons is divided into four types: hypersonic cruise missiles, which are surface- or air-launched; hypersonic glide vehicles, brought to high altitude by missiles or jets, re-entering the atmosphere at very high speeds while maneuvering, and able to hit targets with conventional or nuclear bombs; hypersonic attack aircraft, which are vehicles that fly at hypersonic speeds and are capable of taking off and landing, and are therefore useful for surveillance purposes but potentially also for attack; and finally, hypersonic anti-ship missiles.

Let’s examine them one by one, listing the current respective stages of research, development and testing of the countries in question.

The first type of hypersonic weapons are the easiest to understand. Simply put, these are cruise missiles with scramjet engines that are capable of accelerating to hypersonic speeds.

Hypersonic cruise Missiles (excluding anti-ship weapons available below) United States (testing phase)

Russia/India (testing phase)

  • BrahMos-II is a hypersonic missile currently under development in India and Russia

The most discussed weapon is the hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV). What exactly a HGV is can be explained as follows:

HGVs are unmanned, rocket-launched, maneuverable aircraft that glide and “skip” through the earth’s atmosphere at incredibly fast speeds. Compared to conventional ballistic systems, HGV warheads can be much higher, lower altitudes and less-trackable trajectories. The defense systems approach leaves less time to intercept the warhead before it drops its payload.

Glide Weapon/Hypersonic Glide Vehicle:

United States (experimental phase)

  • For years, the US has worked on missiles that can be used as a Tactical Boost Glide (TBG) weapon, which is a rocket glider that can reach speeds of 20,921 kilometers per hour, or Mach 20, and then uses a scramjet/ramjet engine to perform maneuvers. Currently, the United States is in the research and development phase of experimenting with an Advanced Hypersonic Weapon (AHW) known as the Hypersonic Technology Vehicle 2 (HTV-2)

Russia (entering into service in 2019)

  • KH-47M 2 Kinzhal (Dagger). An air-launched, modified Zircon missile launched from a MiG-31.

China (test phase)

  • DF-17/DF-ZF/WU-14 – Hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) medium-range system, with a range of between 1,800 and 2,500 kilometers.

As we can see, Russia is almost ready to start mass production of their HGVs, while the US is still in the early phase of experimentation, and China is already undertaking numerous tests.

The most complicated factor with hypersonic technology concerns the Hypersonic Attack Aircraft (HAA), equipped with scramjet engines and able to attain hypersonic speeds, but with the added benefit of being able to take off and land. They are to be unmanned and can be used for surveillance or attack purposes.

Hypersonic Attack Aircraft

United States (unknown phase)

  • No known projects, much speculation about tests and scientific research. For example, the US military created in 1996 a program called SHAAFT. Now the US Military is working on a number of prototypes:

Russia (testing phase)

China (testing phase)

  • TENGYUN is a hypersonic aircraft powered during the first stage by a turbine rocket combined cycle (TRCC) engine, which then launches a reusable second-stage rocket to reach the stratosphere.

Because scramjet technology, on which HAA systems rely, is still in its early phases of development, this weapon system is unlikely to see the light of day any time soon.

Anti-ship missiles accelerate to hypersonic speed, allowing them to hit naval groups. As described below, this is because of a scramjet motor that gives such missiles their power:

Anti Ship Missiles are believed to be a maneuvering, winged hypersonic cruise missile with a lift-generating center body. A booster stage with solid-fuel engines accelerates it to supersonic speeds, after which a scramjet motor in the second stage accelerates it to hypersonic speeds.

Anti Ship Hypersonic Missiles:

United States (Currently only possesses sub-sonic missiles)

Russia (operational)

China (testing phase)

In the next article I will explain how Russia and China Gained a Strategic Advantage in Hypersonic Technology and why this could be a game changer in future war scenarios. 

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HSBC Completes First Trade-Finance Deal Using Blockchain, Opening $9 Trillion Market For Mass Adoption

Just a few hours after German online bank Bitbond announced it now allows users to transfer loan anywhere in the world using bitcoin and other cryptos , a move which we said would result in a rapid adoption of blockchain technologies within the bank-disintermediation space, the FT reported that in a somewhat parallel transaction, UK-based banking giant HSBC has completed the world’s first commercially viable trade-finance transaction using blockchain, in the process opening the door to mass adoption of the technology in the $9tn market for trade finance, a process which ironically culminates with traditional banks such as HSBC becoming disintermediated from the fund flows process, i.e., obsolete.

HSBC said the blockchain trade, which processed a letter of credit for US food and agricultural group Cargill, had shown the platform was ready to be commercially adopted across the industry.

In many ways the news will be welcome, especially when it comes to trade finance: traditionally one of the most convoluted and burdensome pillars of modern finance, one which has been deeply in need of disruption.

As a result, the FT notes that the introduction of blockchain “is expected to shake up the centuries-old trade-finance industry, reducing the numerous documents and several days of processing needed for a single transaction to a paperless task that can be completed in hours.”

And, as Vivek Ramachandran, head of innovation and growth for commercial banking at HSBC, said, “the next stage is actually encouraging as many participants as possible to sign up to the utility” adding that banks, shipping companies, ports and customs operations would have to take up the same technology before it could gain widespread usage. “We don’t envisage the platform as anything other than a utility.”

Think of blockchain is to trade finance as DTCC was to old-school stock certificates (incidentally, blockchain is set to revolutionize DTC as well).

In trading hubs around the world, banks such as HSBC still operate trade-finance floors filled with stacks of paper documentation for trade. Blockchain transactions will greatly reduce these operations in the coming years, Mr Ramachandran said. HSBC took in $2.52bn in trade-finance revenue last year, making it one of the world’s largest banks in the industry.

In light of these numbers, it is understandable why HSBC wants to streamline its process even more, generating a far higher profit margin.

Some more details on the historic blockchain-mediated letter of credit:

The transaction for Cargill was for a shipment of soyabeans from Argentina to Malaysia last week. HSBC used the Corda blockchain platform, which was developed by technology consortium R3. Dutch bank ING, which has also adopted the technology, was a counterparty on the deal.

Unlike previous test transactions, the one for Cargill could be replicated if the same counterparties were involved, Ramachandran said, showing that the technology is ready for commercial use.

To be sure, HSBC was delighted with the outcome, and Ramachandran likened the advent of blockchain trade finance to the usage of standardized shipping containers, which were slowly but surely adopted by ships, ports, railways and trade companies over several decades to eventually become the primary mode for global shipping.

And now the race is on for the next standardization protocal, which unless something far better emerges in the coming months, will be blockchain:

In much the same respect, counterparties to trade finance — such as banks, ports and traders — must all adopt common platforms and standards for blockchain trade finance, something that Mr Ramachandran says will play out over the next five years.

To be sure, there will be bottlenecks, and widespread adoption of the technology will still face challenges as companies and banks attempt to make their pilot projects fit in with the bustling world of global trade, said Gadi Ruschin, chief executive at Wave, an Israel-based start-up developing bill-of-lading products using blockchain. Many of the products currently under development around the would fail, he predicted.

“The blockchain is only an enabling technology for different products and each product should be evaluated in many aspects before evaluating the chances for adoption — technology, regulations, cost of the service, security but the most important one is the product market fit,” Ruschin said.

As discussed most recently three months ago, trade finance – its massive $9 trillion industry size notwithstanding – is just one of numerous fields ripe for disruptions and improvement; ultimately the broad reach of blockchain will impact no less than $100 trillion worth of goods and services; in this context, the fact that the market cap of the entire crypto universe (at just over $400 billion at this moment) is less than half the market cap of Apple, may be one of the biggest arbitrage opportunities in history.

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The United States Of Beer

Across the board, beer consumption in the United States has been slowly and steadily dropping since the early ’80s.

However, as Visual Capitalist’s Nick Routley notes, that fact doesn’t tell the whole story. Trends around beer consumption are anything but uniform, and the industry is evolving rapidly thanks to the craft beer boom in cities throughout the country.

BEER CONSUMPTION BY STATE

Today’s infographic looks at regional beer consumption, as well as trends over the past half-decade.

Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

PINTS OF INTEREST

Beer is still the most popular alcoholic beverage in America, though that demand is not spread equally. Here are states and regions that stand out:

Utah
The Beehive State has unusually low levels of beer consumption for a couple of reasons. First, the state has a high population of Mormons (~60%), who mostly abstain from drinking alcohol. Secondly, Salt Lake City has unusual liquor lawsthat restrict the percentage of alcohol in beer to 4.0% ABV.

Despite these barriers, Utah’s beer consumption grew by 2.8% between 2012 and 2017 – the sixth highest growth rate in the country.

New Hampshire
Another outlier, though in the opposite direction, is New Hampshire. The state has no sales tax, a fact that beer drinkers in Vermont, Massachusetts, and Maine are well aware of. It’s estimated that over 50% of the states alcohol sales are to out-of-state visitors. NH’s tax-free booze is such a big draw, that bootlegging has become a problem for states like New York.

Pacific Northwest
America’s West Coast – Oregon in particular – has been at the forefront of the craft beer revolution sweeping the country. Portland alone has over 100 craft brewers, and nearly double-digit growth in the past five years. In states like Oregon and Washington, demand shows no sign of slowing down.

THE FULL LIST

Here’s a complete table, that sums up beer consumption across the country, as per data from Wall St 24/7.

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Iran And Syria: Why Regime Change In One Means Regime Change In Both

Authored by Cailtin Johnstone via Medium.com,

Probably the weirdest, dumbest, most annoying thing about writing on US foreign policy right now is the fact that regime change in Iran and regime change in Syria have been falsely spun into the illusion of two separate issues along partisan lines.

People who are more aligned with America’s Democratic Party are a lot more opposed to the overthrow of the Iranian government and a lot more sympathetic to the idea of getting rid of Assad, and with those who are more aligned with the Republican party it’s the exact opposite.

Partisan politics turn people into such drooling idiots. 

Democratic Party-aligned Americans oppose Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran deal because it was Obama’s baby, while Republican-aligned Americans support it for the exact same reason. This is a deliberate provocation designed to enable crushing economic sanctions, which the US-centralized war machine always uses as a prelude to war, to weaken and destabilize the nation. Plan A will be for imperial intelligence agencies to stage a coup or fund a violent uprising in order to either throw Iran into impotent chaos or replace its government with a puppet regime (either one satisfies Plan A). Plan B will be something more direct.

We’re seeing the reverse in Syria: Democratic Party-aligned Americans are virulently opposed to Assad because Russia is actively fighting on his side, and the Russiagate psyop has Democrats hating anyone who they suspect might have anything to do with Vladimir Putin. They also need to justify the fact that the Obama administration helped stage a premeditated violent uprising and flooded Syria with terrorists with the goal of destabilization or regime change. Trump supporters, meanwhile, oppose regime change in that nation largely because it’s a secular government besieged by violent deep state-funded jihadists.

I am of course painting with a broad brush here; there are Democrats who oppose any kind of interventionism in Syria and there are Trump supporters who oppose it in Iran, but as someone who’s been writing about US-led interventionism in both countries I can say from experience that there is a clear partisan split in public sympathy for each of them. I’m getting liberals agreeing with me about Iran who’ve aggressively denounced my writings on Syria, and a bunch of conservatives who supported my Syria writings now loudly objecting to my writings on Iran. Which is absolutely insane, because it’s the same goddamn war.

Iran and Syria are plainly allies. They are both longtime targets for regime change by neocon think tanks and western defense/intelligence agencies, and they are both being aggressively targeted by Israel and Saudi Arabia. It is very clear that the tightly allied nations on the side of the United States (which I call “the western empire” or the blob) view both nations in the same light. If you ignore the babbling narratives and just look at the behavior of the blob, it is clear that it is working against both nations as though they are a single entity.

If the government of either Iran or Syria falls, it will either be replaced with a puppet government or allowed to collapse into a failed state, in either case unable to assist the other in defending itself from imperial regime change interventionism. Cheerleading for regime change in one nation is necessarily cheerleading for regime change in the other, and all the death, suffering and devastation that necessarily goes with it. You can’t install a puppet regime in one without facilitating the destruction of the other.

Conservatives who support the longstanding neoconservative agenda of regime change in Iran: you are supporting regime change in Syria. You are supporting the installation of a government that will no longer assist Syria in fighting against the western-armed jihadist factions, and you are helping to ensure that Damascus falls to violent Islamist factions. Consenting to American regime change interventionism of any kind in Iran is an endorsement of the enemies that Assad is fighting in Syria.

Liberals who support the longstanding neoconservative agenda of regime change in Syria: you are supporting regime change in Iran. You are supporting the collapse of a key Iranian ally which will no longer be there to help stave off the agenda to plunge Iran into chaos and terror. You are supporting the anti-Iranian agendas of warmongering neocons like Trump, Pompeo and Bolton.

Partisan minds may see Iran and Syria as two completely different situations, but the leaders of the western empire see them as one and the same. With the constantly fluctuating political leadership of Official Washington and the continued agendas of America’s permanent government, the unelected power establishment knows that if it takes out one nation it’s only a matter of time before it will be politically convenient to take out the other.

Fox News babbles nonsense about freedom and democracy and Islamic fundamentalism in Iran, CNN babbles nonsense about Assad targeting civilians with barrel bombs and chemical weapons, but this has nothing to do with any of those things. This is about a transnational alliance of plutocrats and intelligence/defense agencies targeting all governments which don’t bow to its interests, with the ultimate goal of world domination. They target the weaker and smaller nations first in order to weaken their bigger allies, Russia and China, which are the ultimate target.

A powerful group of plutocrats have built their kingdoms on a specific status quo, and they are therefore naturally opposed to rising governmental powers like China which threaten that status quo. These plutocrats have built up their power and influence to the point where they are able to use the governments in the western empire as weapons to attack, bully and subvert any potential geopolitical challengers of the status quo.

That’s all this is. All the propaganda, all the nonsense about Mullahs and chemical weapons and Russian hackers, all the war and terror and suffering, is all because a few sociopathic individuals have been able to claw their way up the capitalist ladder to such a height that they can use governments to advance their insatiable power-grabbing agendas. Different political factions are being propagandized in different ways along their respective paths of least resistance into supporting these agendas, but as always the fake partisan divide always benefits the same group of depraved ruling elites.

Oppose these elites by opposing interventionism across the board. It isn’t okay for a few wealthy oligarchs to use governments to destroy and subvert entire nations. It isn’t okay that governments which should be helping their people are instead stretched all across the globe bending over backwards to make sure a few plutocrats don’t get dethroned. It isn’t okay that oligarchic domination has taken precedence over the basic human impulse to survive and thrive. We must all cease consenting to this together, regardless of political ideology.

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China’s First Domestically-Built Aircraft Carrier Begins Sea-Trials

It is all coming together, and the United States should be terrified.

Late last month, we suggested that Beijing’s first domestically built aircraft carrier would begin sea trials “imminently.” Pictures and video from Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Company, located in Dalian, Liaoning province, China, the largest shipbuilding company in the country, showed the aircraft carrier, so far known as Type 001A (CV-17), preparing for its first independently powered foray at sea.

In a new announcement from the Defence Ministry, the still-unnamed vessel (Type 001A) exited the port outside the Dalian shipyard at 5:30 am on Sunday morning — embarking on its first sea trial. A military strategist told the Global Times, “the trial will mainly test basic system functionality and carrier-based aircrafts will participate in combat trials after the carrier is formally delivered to China’s navy.”

Images show China’s first domestically built aircraft carrier setting out for sea performance test on Sunday morning (Source: Global Times) 

Images show China’s first domestically built aircraft carrier setting out for sea performance test on Sunday morning (Source: Global Times) 

The video shows the aircraft carrier preparing to leave the port in Dalian on Sunday morning around 5:30 am. It took five tugboats about two hours to successfully spin the vessel around and head out to sea, as the ship disappeared in the fog at 7:30 am.

The first sea trial will primarily concentrate on testing core systems of the vessel, including power, communication, fire safety, and electro-mechanical, Song Zhongping, a military expert and TV commentator, told the Global Times.

“Weapon systems and carrier-based aircrafts are unlikely to participate in the first sea trial, and combat capability tests will be carried out by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy after the carrier is formally delivered to the navy. Before this, its producer may need about six months to finish tests, which means the navy will receive the ship by the end of this year,” Song said.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, recently spearheaded an ambitious modernization plan for the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), including stealth bombers and fighter jets, hypersonic vehicles, and anti-satellite missiles, as Beijing increases its presence in the heavily disputed South China Sea and around Taiwan, an island that it still considers its own.

In early April, we described how Beijing assembled a massive show of naval force in the South China Sea — the largest in more than 600-years. Beijing’s maritime expansion comes as no surprise, as President Jinping is pushing for the One Belt One Road Initiative.

The PLAN assembled all of its most advanced warships, aircraft carrier, aircraft, and nuclear submarines for a massive show of force in the South China Sea. State-run Chinese papers said the number of warships assembled “the largest of its kind in 600 years.” This is following the 14th-century fleet admiral Zheng He, whose large expeditions in Southeast Asia, South Asia, Western Asia, and East Africa — helped establish China’s power through expansion of the Maritime Silk Road during the Ming dynasty era.  

The Type 001A is a conventionally-powered vessel and will be able to hold more planes than China’s only other aircraft carrier, called Liaoning.

China’s PLAN has taken an increasingly aggressive role in 2018, with Liaoning and dozens of warships sailing through the South China Sea and around self-ruled Taiwan.

While the United States Navy operates 19 aircraft carriers and plans to build a few more, Chinese state-run media has quoted military experts as saying Beijing needs at least six carriers. There are expectations that the Type 001A will enter the PLAN fleet as early as 2019, or at the latest by 2020.

Washington and Beijing are sleepwalking into a tremendous collision, that ultimately could resort to a military conflict in the South China Sea.

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A Beginners Guide To The Conflict In Yemen

Authored by Stucky via The Burning Platform blog,

Don’t have the time to do research on the Yemen conflict? Here ya go, as brief as we can make it…

*  *  *

TWO YEMENS

– Yemen was a divided country for hundreds of years

– North Yemen gained independence from the Ottoman Empire when it collapsed in 1918

– North Yemen was then ruled by a Zaydi Shiite Imam. Zaydi Shiism is a branch of Shiite Islam found almost exclusively in Northern Yemen.

– in 1962 the military staged a coup against the Zaydi monarchy.

– the conflict lasted several years and essentially became a proxy war between Egypt (who supported the military) and Saudi Arabia (who supported the royalists).  The war ended in 1970.   The royalists and Saudis lost.

– Meanwhile, South Yemen gained its independence from British and Saudi rule in 1967.

– South Yemen aligned itself with the Soviets (the only communist country in the Arab world).

– North and South Yemen clashed for the next several decades

 

TWO YEMENS RELIGIOUSLY

ONE YEMEN under Ali Saleh (1990 -2011)

– The Soviet bloc disintegrated which led to the merger of North and South Yemen  in 1990

– The new ruler for unified Yemen was Ali Saleh, who prior was the ruler of North Yemen.

– Civil war broke out in 1994.  South Yemen felt Saleh’s regime was marginalizing them.,  Saleh quickly squashed the opposition.

– Saleh soon ran into more problems, this time right in North Yemen. Sheikh Hussein al-Houthi (1956 -2004) was a political and military leader.  He began a religious revivalist movement in the early 1990s.  His goal was to reassert traditional Zaydi Shiism which was losing ground to the fundamentalist Sunni (particularly Salafism) proselytizing supported by Saudi Arabia.  His followers and movement were called Houthis.

– The Houthi movement eventually shifted from a religious bent to political. From wiki; — “In 2003 the Houthis’ slogan “The God is great, death to the US, death to Israel, curse the Jews, and victory for Islam”, became the group’s trademark.”  Between 2004 and 2010, there were six conflicts between Houthi rebels and Saleh’s government.

– In September 2004, the Yemeni government announced that their military killed al-Houthi along with 20 of his followers. The Yemeni government creates a martyr.

REVOLUTION!!  (2011 – 2014)

– Inspired by the protests in Tunisia, tens of thousands of Yemenis took to the streets in January 2011, demanding Saleh’s resignation.  Saleh refused and many were killed.

– But, Saleh is forced to bow to domestic and international pressure and signed an agreement to cede power.  In Feb 2012 his vice president, Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi, takes over. The agreement was brokered by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Saudi Arabia, and United States.

– The peace did not last long. Hadi lost control quickly.

– There were al-Qaida attacks, the economy was tanking, southern Yemen wanted to secede again, and Houthi rebels were engage in brutal fighting with Hadi’s government. Attempts were made to broker a new constitution, but no one could agree on anything.

– Yemen borrowed money from the IMF.  The IMF as part of the loan agreement demanded austerity measures. So, in 2004, Hadi announced cuts to fuel subsidies. The huge increase in fuel prices hit the mostly poverty stricken population very hard, and served to provoke the Houthi-backed protestors to further destabilize the government. Hadi rescinded the cuts, but the damage was done.

HOUTHI RULE  (2014 – 2015)

– Houthi rebels seize control of most of the capital, Sanaa, in September 2014.

– Hadi signs a U.N.-brokered peace with the Houthis to form a new, more inclusive government within a month.

– By January 2015 the Houthis reject the new government and constitution. They place Hadi under house arrest but, Hadi is able to escape to Aden.

– In February 2015, the Houthis dissolved parliament and formed a new transitional government.

– The GCC, United Nations, and United States quickly denounce the coup.

– In March 2015 Houthis expand their military campaign. They’re able to take over large parts of the country. Hadi flees to Saudi Arabia.

SAUDI INTERVENTION  (2015 – current)

– Saudi Arabia is Sunni.

– Yemen (the Houthi part)  is Shia.

– Iran (Shia) supports Yemen.

– Saudi Arabia hates Iran.

– Yemen (Houthis) / Iran (Shia) were winning.

– This was too much for the Sauds. So, they formed a military coalition with eight other Arab states.  But, the intelligence, arms, and logistical support came from the United States and England. The coalition began their airstrike campaign in March 2015 in order to defeat the Houtis and restore Hadi to power.

– With overwhelming superiority in weapons, fire power, and support from the World’s Lone Superpower the Sauds thought the campaign would be over in a few short months. In over a year of bombing the coalition has made only minimal territorial gains.

YEMENS TODAY

– Yemen is functionally two countries, or governments; the Houthis in Sanaa, and Hadi in Aden.

– all the various brokered peace talks have gotten nowhere

– the Trump administration is siding with the Sauds, and wherever possible blaming the various war atrocities on Iran.  But, it is the coalition with bombs and airplanes, and there is zero doubt, as evidence exists, that coalition armaments have struck schools, hospitals, and civilian areas.

– 75% of Yemenis need some kind of humanitarian assistance to meet basic needs, about 8 million are at risk of starvation, cholera is becoming an epidemic, Riyadh is even preventing fresh bottled water from entering the country  … the country meets every definition of a failed state.

MY CONCLUSION

“He [Esau] will be a wild donkey of a man; his hand will be against everyone and everyone’s hand against him, and he will live in hostility toward all his brothers.” —- Genesis 16:12

The 5,000 year long conflict in the Middle East is not just between Jew and Arab.  It is also (and, probably, primarily) between Arab and Arab. Will things suddenly get better in 2018?  Sure, there have been periods of peace. But, it never lasts. Because Esau is a wild ass of a man. That’s not God talk. That’s history talk.

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Futures Extend Gains On Trump’s Trade-War Retreat, Dollar Sinks

The Dollar and bond yields are lower as Sunday evening trading begins but US equity futures are up around 0.4% following President Trump’s apparent retreat from Chinese trade-wars, supporting the rescue of giant telecoms company ZTE..

The Dollar Index is selling off modestly…

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Stormy’s Lawyer Drops Mysterious Tweet Linking Qatari ‘Royalty’, Ice Cube, Cohen, Flynn, Bannon, & Trump

Just when you thought you had seen or heard it all…

Michael Avenatti, porn star Stormy Daniels’ lawyer, likely managed to dominate the more liberal-leaning media’s news cycle on this Sunday evening when he dropped two tweets and three images.

Avenatti – who may face disbarrment – began by tweeting that his “warning [was] ignored” adding “so here it goes…”

Avenatti then shows three images of Cohen, Flynn, and a mysterious bald, bearded gentleman getting into the levators at Trump Tower, allegedly on December 12, 2016 (note – after the election results).

Avenatti gave timestamps of the video watching who was coming in and out of Trump Tower during the transition on C-SPAN:

Stormy’s lawyer then dropped another cryptic tweet trying to explain the images…“Why was Ahmed Al-Rumaihi meeting with Michael Cohen and Michael Flynn in December 2016 and why did Mr. Al-Rumaihi later brag about bribing administration officials according to a sworn declaration filed in court?”

And that is where the fun and games begin.

First things first – who is Ahmed Al-Rahaihi?

He is the former Qatari diplomat, alleged member of the royal family, and current head of a division of Qatar’s massive sovereign wealth fund.

But where it gets even more Alice-in-Wonderland is the fact that he is being sued by hip-hope legend Ice Cube (and his business partner Jeff Kwatinetz) alleging that they were both used (along with their BIG3 basketball league) as pawns by the Qataris in a bid to get sympathy from people in Washington.

NYPost reports that the Middle Eastern investors, instead, chose to use their money and connections with Cube to “get positive public relations for Qatar,” the affidavit says. Their real target was Bannon and other prominent figures in Washington, the affidavit says.

Kwatinetz claims that he was “appalled” by the notion of receiving “a bribe of any kind” — and declined the offer without even telling Bannon about it.

He says that that Al-Rumahi “laughed and then stated to me that I shouldn’t be naive, that so many Washington politicians take our money.” The Qatari investor then allegedly stated, “Do you think [Michael] Flynn turned down our money?”

Throwing a bit more light on his tweet, Avenatti followed up on Twitter:

“And to be clear – by ‘warning ignored’ I am referring to the refusal of various parties to come clean and the failure of various parties and news outlets to stop with the personal attacks on our side. Keep pushing us. #consequences #basta,” he wrote. 

The Daily Mail reports that Dec. 12 was an eventful day at Trump Tower during the hectic transition.

According to information that Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner provided to Congress after failing to initially disclose his Russia contacts, Russian ambassador Sergey Kislyak met with Kushner’s assistant on that date.

The following day, Dec. 13, Kushner met with Russian banker Sergei Gorkov, who told Kushner he was close to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Social media is now going wild over there connections – which once again amount to nothing but allegations and money and wealthy elites’ circles doing business as usual.

Having got all that out of the way – our question is simple, who is leaking this information to Avenatti? Is a desperate deep state now pushing docs directly from The FBI into the hands of some former Democrat operative? Since Comey did it, we presume it is now reasonable for the rank-and-file to leak documents with the goal of a higher loyalty?

We suspect this rabbit hole runs deep…

Confused yet?

 

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A Funny Thing Happened On The Way To Market Euphoria

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Fortunately for Bulls, none of this matters.

A relatively reliable measure of complacency/euphoria in the stock market just hit levels last seen in late January, just before stocks reversed in a massive meltdown, surprising all the complacent/euphoric Bulls.

The measure is the put-call ratio in equities. Since this time is different, and the market is guaranteed to roar to new all-time highs, we can ignore this (of course).

Two of the more reliable technical patterns are falling/rising wedges, also known as descending/ascending wedges or triangles. Ascending wedges are bearish, descending wedges are bullish.

The VIX index, one measure of volatility, has been crushed by the recent euphoria/complacency as participants realize that since this time is different, we don’t need no stinkin’ hedges. Unsurprisingly, the VIX has traced out a falling wedge:

But a funny thing happened on the way to market complacency/euphoria this year: every “this time is different” manic rally in the S&P 500 (SPX) formed a bearish rising wedge which promptly reversed once the pattern peaked.

Fortunately for Bulls, none of this matters. Fundamentals trump technicals (heh), and since profits are soaring while wages stagnate (funny how that works, isn’t it?), higher oil prices mean something or other that’s positive (it can’t be higher gasoline prices are good, can it? Must be something else), Facebook has recovered from its temporary swoon and the Fed is easing or tightening or doing whatever it’s doing, so it’s a clean sweep: the fundamentals are all rip-roaring good.

Oh wait a minute–technicals do matter–when they support the Bullish case.The descending trendline from the January highs was just broken to the upside, a clear technical signal that new all-time highs are essentially guaranteed–not later this year, but this month–maybe this week, so buy buy buy, you snooze you lose, don’t fight the Fed, etc. (insert your Bullish aphorism of choice).

Even more compelling (if that’s even possible), the quatloo-bat guano ratio just flashed a huge buy signal, something that only happens on 1.3% of trading days since 1968, so let me repeat: BUY BUY BUY (repeat your Bullish aphorism of choice).

*  *  *

My new book Money and Work Unchained is $9.95 for the Kindle ebook and $20 for the print edition. Read the first section for free in PDF format. If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.

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