NFL Players Join Soros To Fund Leftist Advocacy Groups

With ratings down, ticket sales and prices dropping, and now Cam Newton's route-gate, The NFL does not need any more headaches… but it has one. Even before Trump called out players for taking a knee during the national anthem, their union had been funding leftist advocacy groups along with George Soros.

In tax documents recently released by 2ndVote, a conservative watchdog group, we learn that the NFL Players Association (NFLPA) made a donation of $5,000 in 2015 to the Center for Community Change Action, a George Soros funded and adamantly anti-Trump organization.

Yet, as The Washington Times details, that just scratches the surface of the NFLPA’s dealings and donations to the extreme left…

The NFLPA contributed $5,000 in 2014 to Jobs with Justice, another pro-union group backed by Mr. Soros, and $5,000 in 2013 to the progressive Los Angeles Alliance for a New Economy.

The NFLPA donations from 2013, 2014 and 2015 were made before Mr. Trump was elected.

Other NFLPA charitable contributions went to a mix of groups supporting veterans, medical research and youth, including the Wounded Warrior Project, the Packard Center for ALS Research at Johns Hopkins, Active Minds, and the Boys and Girls Clubs of Greater Washington.

“Clearly, ‘social activism’ by NFL players includes aligning with George Soros and other liberal organizations like Planned Parenthood in support of the left’s agenda,” said 2ndVote, a conservative watchdog group.

We wonder how this additional news will affect NFL ratings/ticket sales this week – as it seems players are not 'on the same team' politically as many of their supporters.

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Goldman Raises December Rate Hike Odds To 80%

Having pointed out a glaring error in today’s payrolls report, which indicated that there was at least one math error in calculating the average hourly earnings number, and as a result casts doubt on every other piece of data released by the BLS, we urge algos and the handful of carbon-based traders, to take anything released by the BLS with a boulder of salt, especially data on wage inflation, until the BLS provides an explanation for what is going on.

Until then, here is Goldman methodically going “by the numbers”, and validating the market’s reaction that sent December rate hike odds to the highest in one year, as moments ago Goldman chief economist, Jan Hatzius, revised his odds of a December hike from 75% to 80%.

Nonfarm payrolls fell 33k in September—considerably below expectations—however, we believe temporary hurricane effects likely explain all or most of the weakness. In fact, the employment report appears strong on net after taking into account hurricane effects, given the drop in the unemployment rate to a new cycle low and the upward revisions to average hourly earnings. We increased our Fed probabilities, with subjective odds of a December hike at 80% (vs. 75% previously).

And the breakdown:

Nonfarm payrolls fell by 33k in September—113k below expectations—and growth in prior months was revised down by 38k on net. However, we believe temporary hurricane effects likely explain all or most of the weakness. We had previously estimated a drag of 125k from hurricane effects, and it appears to have been even larger: the BLS commissioner reported “a sharp employment decline in food services and drinking places and below-trend growth in some other industries likely reflected the impact of Hurricanes Irma and Harvey” (food service employment alone fell by 105k). Gauging the magnitude of the impact is difficult, but given the commissioner’s statement and given the sharp rise in the household “not at work due to weather” series, our working assumption is that all or most of the weakness was hurricane-related—and likely transitory. The state-level payrolls data released October 20th will provide substantial clarity on the magnitude of the impact. By industry, goods-producing industries added 9k jobs in September reflecting a rise in construction employment (+8k). Private service-providing employment fell 49k, as a 111k drop in leisure and hospitality payrolls was partially offset by growth in education and health (+27k) and trade, transportation, and utilities (+26k) jobs. Government payrolls rose 7k. The breadth of job gains weakened likely due to hurricane effects, with the payrolls diffusion index – the net share of industries adding jobs during the month – falling to 55.7% from 60.2%
The household measure of employment was very strong, rising 906k in September following the 74k decline in September. The 939k gap between employment growth in the household and payroll reports was the largest ever excluding months with level adjustments to population controls. Household employment on a population- and establishment survey-adjusted basis rose only 7k, as the numbers of workers on unpaid leave from their jobs—which are included in household employment but not in establishment employment—rose by 908k (SA), presumably largely driven by the hurricanes. The unemployment rate fell in September to 4.22% from 4.44%, as the surge in household jobs more than offset the increase in the participation rate to 63.1% (from 62.9%). While the unemployment rate may in principle have been pushed down by hurricane effects (for instance if the response rate drops more among unemployed), we think this is unlikely because the BLS noted that “there was no discernible effect on the national unemployment rate” and because historically natural disasters have led to moderate increases in the unemployment rate. Another reason to doubt that the decline in the unemployment rate was due to the hurricanes is that household employment was strong (as opposed to the labor labor force being weak). The broader U6 underemployment rate fell 3 tenths to 8.3%, as the shares of marginally attached and the U3 rate fell.
Average hourly earnings increased by a larger-than-expected 0.45% in September (mom), and a significant upward revision to July growth (+0.2pp to +0.5%) resulted in the year-over-year rate increased to +2.9% from a previously reported pace of +2.5% in August. While the composition effect due to the decline in the share of low-wage leisure and hospitality workers may have boosted September earnings, the upward revisions in prior months were large. Average weekly hours held steady at 34.4.
Our preliminary wage tracker—which distills signals from several wage measures—shows 2.4% for Q3, up from +2.2% in Q2.
We believe the headline payrolls miss is considerably less important than usual for the monetary policy outlook, because hurricanes clearly affected the data, other US growth data has been firm, and there are two more employment reports between now and the December meeting to make up for the weakness. We actually think the most important takeaway from the report was the upward revision to average hourly earnings, with wage growth now reported at just below 3%. Given this and given the drop in the unemployment rate to a new cycle low, we increased our Fed probabilities, with subjective odds of a December hike at 80% (vs. 75% previously).

Of course, if the BLS’ wage growth calculation is wrong, everything changes. Until then, here’s a look at where the market-implied odds of a December hike are: not surprisingly… right at 80%.

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The US government lost nearly $1 trillion in FY2017. Again

There was a time, centuries ago, that France was the dominant superpower in the world.

They had it all. Overseas colonies. An enormous military. Social welfare programs like public hospitals and beautiful monuments.

Most of it was financed by debt.

France, like most superpowers before (and after), felt entitled to overspend as much as they wanted.

And their debts started to grow. And grow.

By the eve of the French revolution in 1788, the national debt of France was so large that the government had to spend 50% of tax revenue just to pay interest to its lenders.

Yet despite being in such dire financial straits the French government was still unable to cut spending.

All of France’s generous social welfare programs, plus its expansive military, were all considered untouchable.

So the spending continued. In 1788, in fact, the French government overspent its tax revenue by 20%, increasing the debt even more.

Unsurprisingly revolution came the very next year.

There are presently a handful of countries in the world today in similar financial condition– places like Greece, which are so bankrupt they cannot even afford to pay for basic public services.

But the country that has the most unsustainable public finances, by far, is the United States.

The US government’s ‘Fiscal Year’ runs from October 1st through September 30th. So FY2017 just ended last Friday.

During that period, according to the Department of Treasury’s financial statements, the US government took in $2.95 trillion in federal tax deposits.

And on top of that, the government generated additional revenue through fees and ‘investments’, including $62 billion in interest received on student loans, and $16 billion from Department of Justice programs like Civil Asset Forfeiture (where they simply steal property from private citizens).

So in total, government revenue exceeded $3 trillion.

That sounds like an enormous amount of money. And it is. That’s more than the combined GDPs of the poorest 130 countries in the world.

But the US government managed to spend WAY more than that– the budget for the last fiscal year was $4.1 trillion.

So to make up the shortfall they added $671 billion to the national debt– and this number would have been even larger had it not been for the debt ceiling fiasco.

Plus they whittled down their cash balance by $194 billion.

So in total, the federal government’s cash deficit was $865 billion for the last fiscal year.

And, again, that number would have been even worse if not for the debt ceiling that legally froze the national debt in place.

That’s astounding.

Just like in 2016 (where the cash deficit was $1 trillion), this past fiscal year saw no major recession. No full-scale war. No financial crisis or bank bailout.

It was just another year… business as usual.

And yet they still managed to overspend by nearly $1 trillion, with costs exceeding revenue by more than 20% (just like the French in 1788).

What’s going to happen to these numbers when there actually is a major war to fund? Or major recession? Banking crisis?

More importantly, they’ve been overspending like this for decades without any regard for the long-term consequences.

That’s why the national debt exceeds $20 trillion today. And including its pension shortfalls, the government estimates its total ‘net worth’ to be NEGATIVE $65 trillion.

Thousands of people are joining the ranks of Social Security and Medicare recipients each day, pushing up the costs of those programs even more.

Yet their Boards of Trustees warn that both Social Security and Medicare are quickly running out of money, raising the specter of a major bailout.

Plus there’s trillions of dollars more in needed spending to maintain the nation’s infrastructure. The list of long-term expenses goes on and on.

The obvious truth is that none of this is sustainable.

From the Roman Empire to the French in 1788, history tells us that the world’s dominant superpower almost invariably spends itself into decline, ignoring the consequences along the way.

It would be foolish to presume that this time will end up any different… especially given that there’s zero sign of any changes to the trajectory.

Congress has already put forward a new spending bill for this Fiscal Year– another 4+ trillion, not including any emergency spending that might arise (like hurricane relief, for example).

So we’re already looking at another nearly $1 trillion loss for the coming fiscal year, especially given that there’s almost no growth to tax revenue.

Don’t take this the wrong way– the sky is definitely not falling. The world isn’t coming to an end. And the US isn’t going to descend into financial chaos tomorrow morning.

But at a certain point, a rational person has to take note of such obvious and overwhelming data, and take some basic steps to reduce your exposure to the consequences.

For example, if your country is objectively insolvent, it probably doesn’t make sense to keep 100% of your assets and savings within its jurisdiction…

… especially if your government has a proud history of Civil Asset Forfeiture, AND you happen to be living in the most litigious society that has ever existed in the history of the world.

It’s easy (and incredibly cost effective) to move a portion of your savings to a safe, stable jurisdiction overseas that’s out of harm’s way.

Or to hold physical gold and silver in a safety deposit box overseas. Or even cryptocurrency as an alternative.

This isn’t some crazy idea for tin-foil hat-wearing doomsayers.

Rational, reasonable, normal have a Plan B.

And in light of the circumstances and all the data, it would be truly bizarre to NOT have one.

Source

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The Waiting Is The Hardest Part

Authored by Adama Taggart via PeakProsperity.com,

Man, what an awful stretch of events.

When I penned last week's article on tragedy, little did I expect something as horrible as the Las Vegas massacre would immediately follow. And nearly lost in the headlines was the untimely passing of rock legend, Tom Petty, one of my all-time favorite musicians. Sure can't wait for this week to be over…

In memory of Tom, I've been listening to a lot of his and the Heartbreakers' best hits. The lyrics to one song in particular, The Waiting, well-captures an important message today's investors should take to heart:

The waiting is the hardest part

Don't let it kill you baby, don't let it get to you

Those waiting for the financial markets to experience some sort (any sort!) of pullback have been waiting a long, looong time. How long?

It has been over 100 months (more than 8.5 years) since the current bull market began in April of 2009
It has been 15 months since the last (and very brief) drop of 5% in the S&P 500
This past September saw record low volatility, including a stretch now claimed to be “the most peaceful days in the history of the markets”
Since last year's presidential election, at which point the markets were already considered dangerously overvalued, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up over 20%
As of this article's publishing, the Dow, the S&P and the NASDAQ are all trading at record highs

Or, to put it visually:

The stock market is now 70% higher than it was at the previous bubble peak immediately preceding the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.

Reflect for a moment how painful the crash from Oct 2008-March 2009 was. How much more painful will a crash from today's much dizzier heights be?

Prudent investors have asked themselves that very same question as the markets have become increasingly overvalued over the past 8+ years. Many of them — myself included — concluded that the future risks greatly outweigh the prospect of future returns, and pulled much of their capital out of the markets onto the sidelines. And since doing so, many of them — again, myself included — have watched prices climb higher and still higher again.

It's understandable to feel great frustration both at the irrationality of today's market prices and at the emotional sting of missing out on the gains they've been delivering to those who have blithely remained long.

But it's very important to remember we've been here before many times throughout history (and pretty recently when reflecting back on the Tech and Housing bubbles). While today's levels are at a historic extreme, markets have always swung from periods of overvaluation to undervaluation — and then back again.

During the peaking process, the siren call to join the party is incredibly hard to resist. Waiting out the irrational exuberance leading up to a market top is painful. Profitable returns are everywhere. How can you turn down making such easy money?

As Tom Petty sympathized: The waiting is the hardest part.

But the disciplined few who can wait out the mania of a bubble become the big victors once it pops. Capital that they've held in reserve as "dry powder" can suddenly purchase assets at half (or even less) the prices they commanded just months earlier. This has happened in (recent) living memory: the S&P 500 lost 50% of its value between its 2007 high and its 2009 low.

So the big question to ask yourself is: Do you have the fortitude to endure the wait?

I ask myself that a lot. Because "doing nothing" is hard. Especially when listening to the gloating of those enjoying the returns on their portfolios, unconcerned and uninterested in any warnings the fundamentals might be waving.

But I draw strength to remain committed in my course from several areas. One of them involves an argument made by Peak Prosperity's resident technical analyst, Davefairtex, who posits that a successful investing strategy can involve just a single move every half-decade or so:

In my opinion, the market has always been a skimming machine that funnels money and wealth from the many into the voracious maws of the few. Here's the intro of a book written in 1940.

Where are the Customer's Yachts? — Fred Schwed, Jr, 1940.

Once in the dear dead days beyond recall, an out-of-town visitor was being shown the wonders of the New York financial district. When the party arrived at the Battery, one of his guides indicated some handsome ships riding at anchor. He said,

“Look, those are the bankers’ and brokers’ yachts.”

“Where are the customers’ yachts?” asked the naïve visitor.

–Ancient story

Hussman offers a methodology to keep "the customers" from repeatedly getting their pockets picked. He uses a very long term "10 year expected returns" calculation to show if the market is expensive or cheap. Right now: expected return for the next 10 years is about 0%. Message to "the customers": don't freaking buy!

As a charter member of the "customer" group, you will need to stay away from the market for many years if you use this metric. As a reward, you won't suffer the 40% drawdowns and sell at the bottom, and you will have the opportunity to buy low – right down there at the bottom when fear is at maximum. Everyone will think you are stupid for years at a time. You will miss out on years of ponzi and have to endure years of worry. You will not have very much company to make yourself feel better.

Good news is, you'll only need to make a decision once every 4-6 years.

Can you do it?

For those curious to see for themselves what the Hussman chart Dave refers to looks like, here's the most recent version, which now predicts a negative total average return for the next 12 years:

(Source)

I like Dave's direct challenge of "Can you do it?". Do you have the emotional fortitude to resist the allure of easy returns when the market is delivering them week in and week out? Can you resist the very human urge to try to "beat the market" in any given year, and instead simply wait for the obvious periods of undervaluation that indicators like Hussman's chart above will identify for you? And if you can, will you have the iron stomach to deploy your capital at those times, when everyone else is decrying their losses and claiming the market is a death trap?

I aspire to answer "Yes!" to each of those questions. I think many of you reading this do so, too, which is why I'm sharing all this. I find it helps tremendously to be reminded of the fundamental reasons why we are choosing safety today in order to enjoy opportunity tomorrow. And to know that you're not alone in your stoic discipline.

Also, there *are* valuable actions we can take today while we wait for the market to re-adjust.

One is to take good care of your capital while you're keeping it on the sidelines. I've written in the past about the insultingly-low interest rates (e.g., 0.06%) offered by savings accounts at most banks these days. There are ways to get 15-20x higher return on your cash savings with no loss of safety or lengthy tie-ups. Ask your professional financial advisor for a range of such options — or schedule a free discussion with our endorsed advisor, who will detail the solutions they recommend (including several of which you can do on your own).

Another is to educate yourself on which indicators (like Hussman's expected returns chart above) to track to monitor where we are in the boom/bust timeline. We discussed a number of those in last month's excellent Dangerous Markets webinar with Grant Williams and Lance Roberts (if you haven't already watched it, you really should). But we're really going to dig deep into which key data to monitor at our upcoming Peak Prosperity summit in New Orleans on October 27th. Join us there if you can.

And last, remember that besides Financial Capital (aka 'money'), there are seven other Forms Of Capital that require an equal degree of your attention. Growing your wealth balance in each one of them is every bit as important as your financial net worth.

Tom was right: The waiting is the hardest part. Best we use that time as wisely as we can.

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North Korea Planning To Test Fire Missile Capable Of Reaching U.S. West Coast; Stocks Slide

Is this the stormy weather that Donald Trump was referring to yesterday?

Russian news agency Sputnik reports, that according to a Russian lawmaker, who has just returned from North Korea, Pyongyang is ready to test a missile capable of reaching the US western coast.

As Sputnik adds, “Pyongyang is planning to test-fire a missile that is capable of reaching the western coast of the US, Anton Morozov, a member of the Russian State Duma Committee on International Affairs told RIA Novosoti.”

“They [North Korea] are preparing to launch a new high range missile. They even gave us calculations, showing that the missile was capable of reachen the western coast of the US,” Morozov said.

The Russian delegation was on an official visit in the North Korean capital on October 2-6, the Russian embassy in North Korea said earlier. The lawmakers discussed bilateral cooperation with the Russian ambassador to North Korea.

The market reaction upon hearing the news has been quite negative, with a trapdoor opening below the S&P as safe-haven bonds are bid.

While gold spiked higher (as USDJPY tumbled back below 113.00).

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BLS Caught Fabricating Wage Data

While it’s not the first time we have observed the BLS manipulate data (the last time was in “This Is What Happens When The Bureau Of Labor Statistics Is Caught In A Lie“), never before had we actually caught the Bureau Of Labor Statistics openly fabricating data. Until now.

As reported earlier today, in one of the most closely watched statistics in today’s payrolls report, the BLS reported that the annual increase in Average Weekly Earnings was a whopping 2.9%, above the 2.5% expected, and above the 2.5% reported last month. On the surface this was a great number, as the 2.9% annual increase – whether distorted by hurricanes or not – was the highest since the financial crisis.

However, a problem emerges when one looks just one month prior, at the revised August data.

What one sees here, as Andrew Zatlin of South Bay Research first noted, is that while the Total Private Average Weekly Earnings line posted another solid increase of 0.2% month over month, an upward revision from the previous month’s 0.1%, when one looks at the components, it become clear that the BLS fabricated the numbers, and may simply hard-coded its spreadsheet with the intention of goalseeking a specific number.

Presenting Exhibit 1: Table B-3 in today’s jobs report. What it shows is that whereas there was a sequential decline in the Average Weekly Earnings for Goods Producing and Private Service-producing industries which are the only two sub-components of the Total Private Line (and are circled in red on the table below) of -0.8% and -0.1% respectively, the BLS also reported that somehow, the total of these two declines was a 0.2% increase!

Another way of showing the July to August data:

Goods-Producing Weekly Earnings declined -0.8% from $1,118.68 to $1,109.92
Private Service-Providing Weekly Earnings declined -0.1% from $868.80 to $868.18
And yet, Total Private Hourly Earnings rose 0.2% from $907.82 to %909.19

What the above shows is, in a word, impossible: one can not have the two subcomponents of a sum-total decline, while the total increases. The math does not work.

This, as Zatlin notes, undermines not only the labor inflation narrative, but it puts into question the rest of the overall labor data, and whether there are other politically-motivated, goalseeked “spreadsheet” errors.

We have sent an email to the BLS seeking an explanation for the above data fabrication.

Source: BLS

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Migration Of The Tax Donkeys

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Dear local leadership: here's the formula for long-term success.

A Great Migration of the Tax Donkeys is underway, still very much under the radar of the mainstream media and conventional economists. If you are confident no such migration of those who pay the bulk of the taxes could ever occur, please consider the long-term ramifications of these two articles:

Stanford Says Soaring Public Pension Costs Devastating Budgets For Education And Social Services

Which American Cities Will File Bankruptcy Next?

Allow me to summarize for those who aren't too squeamish: a lot of cities and counties are going to go broke, slashing services and jacking up taxes, all to no avail. The promises made by corrupt politicos cannot possibly be kept, despite constant assurances to the contrary, and those expecting services and taxes to remain untouched will be shocked by the massive cuts in services and the equally massive tax increases that will be imposed in a misguided effort to "save" politically powerful constituencies and fiefdoms.

These dynamics will power a Great Migration of the Tax Donkeys from failing cities, counties and states to more frugal, well-managed and small business-friendly locales. I've sketched out the migration in this graphic: the move by those who can from incompetently managed and/or corrupt cities/counties/states to more innovative, open, frugal and better managed locales.

Unlike Communist regimes which strictly control who has permission to transfer residency, Americans are still free to move about the nation. This creates a very Darwinian competition between sclerotic, corrupt, overpriced one-party-dictatorships whose hubris-soaked political class is convinced the insane housing prices, tech unicorns, abundant services, and a high-brow culture ruled by an artsy elite are irresistible to everyone, and locales that are low-cost, responsive to their Tax Donkey class, welcoming to new small businesses, employers and talent, unbeholden to a politically-correct dictatorship and conservatively managed, i.e. not headed for insolvency.

Not everyone can move. Many people find it essentially impossible to move due to family roots and obligations, poverty, secure employment, kids in school, and numerous other compelling reasons.

However, some people are able to move–typically the self-employed independent types who can no longer afford (or tolerate) anti-small-business, high-tax municipalities and their smug elitist leadership that's more into virtue-signaling than creating jobs and a small-biz conducive ecosystem. (Giving lip-service to small-biz doesn't count.)

Memo to hubris-soaked politicos and elites: in case you haven't noticed, an increasing number of the most talented and experienced workers can live anywhere they please and submit their output digitally. In other words, they don't have to live in Brooklyn, Santa Monica or San Francisco.

This is the model for many half-farmer, half-X refugees I've described elsewhere: people who are moving to homesteads with the networks and skills needed to earn a part-time living in the digital economy. In a lower cost area, they only need to earn a third or even a fourth of their former income to live a much more fulfilling and rewarding life.

Not that hubris-soaked politicos and elites have noticed, but only the top few percent of households can afford to own a home in their bubble economies. Paying $4,000 a month in rent for a one-bedroom cubbyhole in San Francisco may strike the elites living in mansions as a splendid deal, but to the people who have surrendered all hope of ever owning anything of their own to call home–not so much.

Though this chart is based on national data, there are many regional variations. When it takes a year just to obtain a permit to open an ice cream shop (in San Francisco), how much will the insolvent "owner" have to charge per ice cream cone to make up a year in hyper-costly rent paid for nothing but the privilege of being a scorned peon in a city ruled by privilege and protected fiefdoms?

Dear Rest of the Country: you have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to eat the lunch of all the overpriced, corrupt, bubble-dependent locales that are convinced they are irresistible to the cultured, creative class. Many of those folks would actually like to own some land and a house without sacrificing everything, including their health and family.

Dear local leadership: here's the formula for long-term success: welcome talent from everywhere in the U.S. and the world; make it cheap and quick to open a business, and cheap to operate that business; make public spaces free, safe and well-maintained; insist on a transparent, responsive government obsessed with serving the public as frugally as possible; support a political class drawn from people with real-world enterprise experience, not professional politicos, lobbyists, etc., and treat incoming capital well–not just financial capital but intellectual, social and human capital. Focus on building collaboration between education and enterprise–foster apprenticeships not just in the trades but in every field of endeavor.

Provide all these things and success will follow; ignore all these in favor entrenched elites and fiefdoms and go broke as those paying the taxes decide to save their sanity, health and future by getting out while the getting's good.

* * *

If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Check out both of my new books, Inequality and the Collapse of Privilege ($3.95 Kindle, $8.95 print) and Why Our Status Quo Failed and Is Beyond Reform ($3.95 Kindle, $8.95 print, $5.95 audiobook) For more, please visit the OTM essentials website.

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Spanish Stocks, Bonds Slump As Catalan Parliamentary Debate Looms

Hopes of a 'stall' in secession proceedings have been dashed amid speculation that Catalonia’s regional parliament will convene on Monday, despite a suspension ordered by the central government in Madrid.

The bounce yesterday has been erased…

It's now very clear what the establishment's strategy is…

Good Cop…

As The Duran.com reports, Enric Millo, a Spanish official in Catalonia has offered the first attempt at an apology for the police brutality that marred the Catalan independence referendum on the 1st of October.

Spanish police were filmed beating civilians, shooting unarmed individuals with rubber bullets, as well as harassing and assaulting women and the elderly. The scenes caused a great deal of consternation, even among those who support the Spanish position vis-a-vis Catalonia.

Today, Enric Millo, who represents the Madrid regime, spoke in Catalonia and said,

“When I see these images, and more so when I know people have been hit, pushed and even one person who hospitalised, I can’t help but regret it and apologise on behalf of the officers that intervened”.

Bad Cop…

Having passed the law making it easier for companies to leave Catalonia, Spain's Economy Minister Mendez iproclaimed rather quickly that "the business exodus from Catalonia was very sad," with Guindos adding snidely that "irresponsible policies have economic responses."

Mendez also lashed out at Puigdemont, saying that he "is breaking social cohesion" in the nation.

The IMF has chimed in… (via Bloomberg)

The International Monetary Fund said the Catalan crisis could have an impact on Spain’s economy, which has been one of the best performing in the euro area in recent years. In its latest assessment, the IMF said the banking system has become more resilient, while the economy has benefited from structural reforms and wage moderation as well as a favorable global backdrop. The report, based on an Article IV consultation that ended on Sept. 20, would usually attract attention in Spain, but it’s been overtaken by the political drama related to the secessionist push in Catalonia.

“The outlook for the Spanish economy is currently strong,” Andrea Schaechter, IMF mission chief, said in an interview.

“However, prolonged tensions and uncertainty related to Catalonia could weigh on confidence and investment decisions.”

On a humorous note, Spain's Election Watchdog rejected the Catalan vote.

Spanish yields are rising across the entire yield curve with 10Y up 7bps and 2Y decoupling from Germany…

“The more conservative international investors, who have just cautiously returned to Spain in recent quarters, should remain inclined to reduce risk until the situation clears,” wrote Commerzbank AG strategist Christoph Rieger.

“Spreads should thus stay elevated at least until Monday’s scheduled session of the Catalan Parliament,” he said, referring to the yield premium demanded to hold Spanish bonds over their German counterparts.

JPMorgan is desperately tryting to play down the potential for contagion…

“It is not a threat to the euro,” said Jan Loeys, chief investment strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co., in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

"This is a local problem. There will be affects on the local banks, local asset prices — yes, Spanish equity prices will be hurt a bit.”

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Crude Oil- Potential short prospect says Joe Friday

Crude Oil has rallied for the past few months, could it be peaking? Joe Friday suggests Crude finds itself at a key inflection point for it and its Fear Index (OVX).

Below looks at Crude Oil futures over the past decade-

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Crude Oil rally of late has it testing 6-year falling resistance as its fear index (OVX) is testing 2015 lows at the same time.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am– If Crude breaks support and OVX breaks resistance at (4), Crude could be a good prospect to short, as selling pressure in Crude could pick up.

The stock market rally of late might get a little nervous if Crude would happen to break down and OVX breaks out. What Crude does here will be important for Crude Oil and the broad market in general, as traders now own a crowded trade, similar to what they did back at the highs in 2014.

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What Hurricane: Full-Time Jobs Soar By 935,000, Biggest Increase In The 21st Century

Not only was there much confusion ahead of the September payrolls report, there was just as much confusion inside it, because while the market decided to ignore the 33,000 drop in payrolls (as per the Establishment Survey), the first monthly decline in 7 years and instead focus on the just as widely expected spike in average hourly earnings, a result of hurricane-induced labor shortages, what it appears to have forgotten is the “other” Household Survey, which showed a vastly different picture. Here, according to the BLS the number of employed Americans soared by 906,000 one of the biggest monthly increases on record.

However, an even more dramatic observation was revealed when digging into the components of this increase, because according to the BLS, while the number of part-time workers increased last month by 81,000…

… it was the full-time increase that was an absolute outlier: at 935,000 this was the single biggest monthly increase in the 21st century (excluding the bizarro Jan 2000 print), and one of the 4 highest monthly prints in history.

Which begs the question: if three hurricanes can result in a near-record increase in wwell-paying, full-time jobs, maybe it’s time for a few tactially placed nukes above the US: with everything else having failed, surely they would remove all the slack in the economy overnight, and unleash the long-awaited wage hyperinflation.

via http://ift.tt/2ks6yuS Tyler Durden