Looks Like CNN’s Anonymous Sources Got This One Wrong

Back on May 9th, the White House released the letter that President Trump sent to former FBI Director James Comey informing him that he’d been relieved of his duties at the FBI.  Within that letter, Trump awkwardly inserted a sentence thanking Comey for informing him “on three separate occasions, that I am not under investigation.”  Here’s the full sentence (full post here):

“While I greatly appreciate you informing me, on three separate occasions, that I am not under investigation, I nevertheless concur with the judgement of the Department of Justice that you are not able to effectively lead the Bureau.”

Not surprisingly, this statement set off alarm bells at CNN and other MSM outlets because, if true, it would put a real damper on their “Trump colluded with Russian hackers to stage a coup” narrative. Therefore, those outlets set out on a mission to ‘prove’ that Comey never made those statements and that, by definition, Trump clearly lied about his past interactions with the former FBI Director. 

And not long after setting out on that mission, courtesy of those infamous ‘anonymous sources’, CNN and ABC struck gold when they confirmed that “FBI Director James Comey is reportedly set to testify he never told President Donald Trump that he was not under investigation.”  Here is a summary of CNN’s reporting from their primary echo chamber, HuffPo:

“Former FBI Director James Comey is reportedly set to testify he never told President Donald Trump that he was not under investigation in connection with Russian interference in the 2016 election, according to CNN and ABC News.”

And here is the original CNN reporting:

CNN

 

“Trump has made a blanket claim that Comey told him multiple times that he was not under investigation.”

 

“But one source said Comey is expected to explain to senators that those were much more nuanced conversations from which Trump concluded that he was not under investigation.  Another source hinted that the President may have misunderstood the exact meaning of Comey’s words, especially regarding the FBI’s ongoing counterintelligence investigation.”

Unfortunately, CNN’s ‘anonymous sources’ seem to have been ‘mistaken’ on this one.  And while we have no doubts, generally, about the integrity of CNN and/or their anonymous sources, Comey’s direct testimony released just a while ago seems to confirm exactly what Trump said in his original May 9th letter and exactly the opposite what CNN subsequently reported. 

In fact, here are precisely three instances (ironic, right?), directly from Comey’s testimony, in which he personally told President Trump he was not under investigation:

1.  January 6th Meeting at Trump Tower:

“In that context, prior to the January 6 meeting, I discussed with the FBI’s leadership team whether I should be prepared to assure President-Elect Trump that we were not investigating him personally. That was true; we did not have an open counter-intelligence case on him. We agreed I should do so if circumstances warranted. During our one-on-one meeting at Trump Tower, based on President Elect Trump’s reaction to the briefing and without him directly asking the question, I offered that assurance.”

 

2.  January 27th Dinner at White House:

“During the dinner, the President returned to the salacious material I had briefed him about on January 6, and, as he had done previously, expressed his disgust for the allegations and strongly denied them. He said he was considering ordering me to investigate the alleged incident to prove it didn’t happen. I replied that he should give that careful thought because it might create a narrative that we were investigating him personally, which we weren’t, and because it was very difficult to prove a negative. He said he would think about it and asked me to think about it.”

 

3.  March 30 Phone Call:

“I explained that we had briefed the leadership of Congress on exactly which individuals we were investigating and that we had told those Congressional leaders that we were not personally investigating President Trump. I reminded him I had previously told him that.”

Of course, we’re ‘absolutely positive’ that everything else CNN has learned and reported from their anonymous sources, regarding Trump and his Russian collusion, is completely accurate and reflect nothing but the highest levels of journalistic integrity.  As such, we are quite confident that CNN will promptly retract their erroneous reporting and offer an apology to their readers for the unfortunate mistake.

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Consumers Hit The Brakes: Smallest Increase In Consumer Credit In 6 Years

In the latest red flag for the US economy, moments ago the Fed reported that consumer credit for the month of April rose a paltry $8.2 billion, barely half the consensus estimate of $15.5 billion, and 40% of march’s $19.5 billion. This was the lowest monthly increase in consumer credit going back nearly 6 years to August 2011. The increasingly obvious downward trendline in crediting is hardly indicative of a confident consumer.

While revolving, i.e. credit card, debt rose a modest $1.5 billion, far below the increase in the prior two months…

… it was the sharp slowdown in non-revolving consumer credit, which rose just $6.7 billion, suggesting that either student or auto loans had virtually ground to a halt.

While the reason for the unexpected sharp slowdown is not immediately clear, a chart of sources of consumer credit reveeals that the US government, long a dominant source of consumer debt, has virtually disappeared.

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UK General Election Preview: All You Need To Know

All you need to know about tomorrow’s general election in the UK, broken down into several parts.

From RanSquawk, Deutsche Bank, Lloyds, and WSJ

Why has a Snap Election been called?

On April 18th PM Theresa May surprised many by calling for a snap election for June 8th . May stated that her reason in doing so was to “strengthen her hand in Brexit negotiations”. While at the time that the snap election had being called, the Conservative party had a commanding 20ppt lead in the opinion polls, an opportunity that may not occur again. As such, a result of this size would make it harder for parliament to overthrow any deal May returns with from Brussels, potentially leading to a cleaner Brexit with the risk of a ‘no deal’ lower.
Polling Intentions

UK pollsters were originally predicting a landslide for PM May backin April, subsequently leading many to believe that the risk surrounding the election is relatively low, with the Conservative party seen increasing their current majority by some 75-125 seats. However, a notable shift in the polls has been observed since the release of both the Conservatives and Labour parties’ manifestos, moving in favour of the latter. In turn, this has resulted in some modest pullback from 2017 highs in recent weeks and somewhat elevating the risk regarding the election with some polls narrowing the Conservatives lead to as low as 4ppts. However, given the recent performance of UK pollsters over the 2015 election and EU referendum, they could be taken with a pinch of salt.

* * *

Poll narrowing has increased probability of alternative scenarios

Following the sharp narrowing of the Conservative’s polling lead in recent weeks, the Conservatives’ lead over Labour is now down to 7 points. Comparing this to the historic margins of error seen over previous elections, current polling remains just in excess of the largest polling miss observed since 1992 – a 6.3pp overestimate of the Labour vote share in 2001 – and well in excess of the average polling error over these votes. At the same time, in elections since 1992 the pollsters have consistently underestimated the Conservative’s vote share, by 2.1pp on average. (chart below).

Given this clear trend for polls to underestimate the Conservatives for various reasons, including issues of poor sampling together with the “shy Tory phenomenon” – pollsters attempt to correct their survey results to account for this dynamic. The risk therefore is that the polls could be over-correcting and therefore giving the Tories an advantage in the polls.

* * *

Scenarios

  • Most Likely: PM May to win a larger majority (50+) which would supposedly allow for a much more stable Brexit process, through consolidating power while also making her less vulnerable to remainers within her own party, while the risk of a ‘no deal’ is lower and in turn lead to a cleaner Brexit. This can also suggest that it would be easier for PM May to agree on a transitional deal with the EU, mitigating some of the negative economic effects, as the next election will not take place until May 2022.
    • Market Reaction: Initial spike in GBP, however given the rise in the currency since the announcement (1.2520 to 1.2900), this outcome has largely been priced in which could limit any move to the upside, consequently leading to a ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact price action. Stocks to watch: Centrica and SSE likely to take a hit if the Conservatives impose a cap on standard variable tariffs. As it stands, GBP/USD o/n vol is to reside around 29/120 pips.
  • Likely: The conservative party win a slim majority (5-10 more seats) or relatively unchanged from current. This could possibly lead to a less stable government, making Theresa May more vulnerable to Brexit hardliners within her own party, subsequently raising the possibility of a ‘no deal’.
    • Market Reaction: Risks are tilted to the downside and as such, this outcome would likely see GBP met with selling pressure, alongside a fall in UK Gilt yields as some suggest this risks a more confrontational approach to Brexit negotiations, subsequently increasing uncertainty.
  • Unlikely: Labour manage to pull a surprise and form a majority through a coalition with SNP and Lib Dem, this would undoubtedly complicate Brexit negotiations, with analysts at Danske Bank noting that this outcome could potentially lead to Brexit being cancelled altogether or sway to a softer Brexit.
    • Market Reaction: In an immediate reaction, GBP will likely drop off alongside equity markets as a whirlwind of uncertainty lingers over UK political front. Analysts at PIMCO state focus will shift towards a looser fiscal policy and an untested government. Stocks to look out for would be UK utilities (Severn Trent, Centrica, SSE, National Utilities and United Utilities) which would likely drop off amid Labour’s plans of nationalisation.

* * *

GBP: Complacency

Heading into this general election, the FX markets appeared to be overly complacent with prevailing opinion poll data, suggesting the Conservative Party would return to power with an enhanced majority. Indeed, following the announcement of the election (18 April), Bloomberg calculated implied seat majority for the Conservative Party (Chart 2) rose to 200. This subsequently turned out to be the peak majority figure as calculated by Bloomberg and since the start of May has declined to currently stand at 58 as the opinion polls show a narrowing of the Conservative Party lead. Market complacency on expectations for a sizeable majority was one of the motivating factors behind our view that GBP was likely to face near-term headwinds in the coming months as investors “buy the sizeable majority, sell the fact”. Unsurprisingly, a narrowing of the polls has seen GBP TWI fall by over 3%, peak-to-trough in May.

Coalition is the sweet spot for Sterling

Recent opinion polls (Chart of the day) have shaken markets from their lethargy. In FX, demand for GBP puts (proxied by risk reversals) has increased in the short duration tenors, while one-week GBP/USD implied volatility is close to 2017 highs. A Labour-led coalition would ultimately be the most positive scenario for GBP and while a large Conservative victory would be initially bullish, large majorities are no guarantee for strong subsequent performance. A Labour majority/small Conservative majority would both be initially bearish for GBP.

* * *

Cheat Sheet Summary of Market Reactions:

* * *

Process for forming a coalition government

Given the tightening of the polls, there is a risk that no party gains an overall majority. This would lead to a hung parliament scenario with either a minority Conservative government or a Labour-led alliance supported by the Lib Dems and the SNP.

In terms of the process for forming a coalition – the 2010 negotiations lasted five days, beginning with the leaders’ speeches on the Friday morning and concluding with Cameron and Clegg’s joint press statement on the following Wednesday.

The next state opening of Parliament (the Queen’s Speech) is scheduled for the 19th June which would be an important test in the event of a Conservative minority government. If the vote on the Queen’s speech fails to pass then either a new government would attempt to be formed or we move towards fresh elections.

* * *

Seats to watch on election night

In the UK’s first-past-the-post constituency level system, marginal seats are crucial in defining the outcome of elections. In this section we compile the potential swing seats to watch based on different criteria, ranked by the expected timing of their declarations on election night.

Seats to watch 1: 2015 marginal seats (<5% winning margin)

Marginal seats are typically defined based on the size of the majority of the current MP relative to the next best party in the last election. In Figure 6 below we list the most marginal constituencies in Great Britain in the 2015 election – listing the 52 seats in which the margin of the winning party ahead of the runner-up was less than 5%. We list the seats by the time they are expected to declare their result according to the Press Association. This expected timing should be seen as an indication only , with close results increasing the chances of later declarations.

Seats to watch 2: seats vulnerable to Brexit preferences and tactical voting

However, with the Brexit referendum last year and leadership changes across the major national parties since the last election in 2015, it may be that a traditional margin-based seat list is less appropriate than in the past. Limiting our analysis to England & Wales, which contain the majority of marginal seats, we consider which seats currently held by the two largest parties could be vulnerable based on attitudes to Brexit and potential scope for tactical voting.

To make a list of potentially vulnerable Conservative seats we apply two criteria:

  • the seat voted more ‘Remain’ than the UK average (or is estimated to have ) and
  • the Conservative vote share in 2015 was less than the combined share of Labour, Liberal Democrats and Greens leaving the seat potentially vulnerable to ‘progressive’ tactical voting

For vulnerable Labour seats we apply the criteria of:

  • the seat being more ‘Leave’ than the UK average
  • the combined vote share of Conservatives and UKIP being greater than that of Labour, Lib Dems and Greens

The gives two lists of 21 and 33 seats respectively presented in Figure 8 and 7. A number of these seats, such as Conservatives’ Croydon Central and Labour’s Halifax appear both on these lists and on the list of marginal seats. However, this combination of criteria also suggests seats such as the Conservatives’ Bristol North West and the Labour seat of Wrexham, the latter expected to come quite early in the night, could be bellwethers as to whether either side is able to take advantage of Brexit sentiment or tactical voting.

Of the two seats that have changed hands since 2015, one makes the list – Copeland, which was lost by Labour to the Conservatives earlier this year. However, Richmond Park – regained by Lib Dems from Tories in late 2016, does not make it, as the 2015 Conservative majority was too large to meet our criteria

* * *

Timing on and following election night

Polls open from 7am and close at 10pm on Thursday.

The publishing of polls is not permitted on the day until after polling closes– at 10pm Ipsos Mori will publish the official exit poll for the BBC and Sky News.

The 10pm exit poll will also give a projection of the ultimate seats won by each party. Historically these forecasts have been very accurate (within 15 seats for the winning party) but this means that if the exit poll projections are tight – i.e. within a 20 seat majority for the Tories – the margin of error means we may not know by 10pm which of the potential outcomes across small Conservative majority, Conservative minority or Labour coalition are the most likely.

The vote count begins at 10pm with the first results typically declared between 11pm and midnight.

The bulk of the declarations begin to flow in from about 2am. By around 4am we should have ~50% of the vote counts declared and a good idea of the result and by 6am close to 90% of the vote count (see chart below).

In the case of a clear majority for the winner, the tradition is for the leader of the winning party to wait for the leader of the losing Party to concede before claiming victory. In 2015, David Cameron accepted victory just before 6 am.

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Saudi America – How New Tech Is Creating Another Oil Boom

Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,

Just when you thought there couldn’t be any more oil in Texas … new technology is about to unlock an extremely shallow field that is brimming with heavy oil that has been impossible to recover–until now.

Many oil companies have spent many millions of dollars trying to unlock this gem, but expensive steam injections weren’t efficient enough to make it competitive or economic, even if they had succeeded.

While steam injections cost $50 per barrel, the new technology lifts the oil at under $10 per barrel—an astounding savings, even if oil prices crashed to lows not seen since the late 90s.

This dramatically reduced cost of extraction should send the Saudis back to the OPEC negotiating table in a panic.

But this is the story of Petroteq Energy – a small company with huge ambitions to become a driving force of a brand new chapter in the American oil revolution …

The Field of Dreams

The Texas Permian Basin has been producing oil for almost 100 years, but geological assessments show that even though billions of barrels have already come out of this sleeping giant, billions more are still waiting to be pumped.

Nowhere is this more immediately foreseeable than the Wardlaw oilfield.

This story starts 80 years ago on a huge tract of oil-rich land in the Permian Basin, the home of Spindletop, the historical gusher that everyone today associates with America’s oil beginnings.

Everyone from small private companies to the majors showed up on the scene at Wardlaw, pumping multi-millions of dollars into the field—to no avail. No oil in any significant quantity has been produced to date.

They didn’t have the right technology, and Wardlaw is a tough venue. There is no water, gas or any other drive mechanism in the zone, and formation pressure is abnormally low, while the oil is viscous.

The 130+ wells on the property have a history of extremely low production rates. Faced with these insurmountable challenges and having exhausted all known recovery methods, the operators suspended production in 2015. They ran out of money and economic incentives.

They left practically all the oil in the ground.

The operators were employing all known extraction technologies, from expensive steam injections costing a prohibitive $50 per barrel, to water flooding with surfactants to get the oil out of the ground. Nothing really worked.

Since oil prices crashed in late-2014 in the aftermath of the initial shale boom, nothing close to $50 per barrel makes sense. Oil riches become rags, and it was considered best to leave the oil in the ground.

But then came a small company with big technology, and a series of acquisitions and partnerships that would turn the rags back into riches at Wardlaw with a process that puts the extraction price at $10 per barrel or under. And visionary Petroteq was the force behind the decision to found Accord and acquire Wardlaw—against all odds.

Wardlaw is nothing if not rich. The 7,000-acre shallow field is bursting at the seams with heavy oil and proven reserves with estimated potential of over 100 million barrels of oil in place. Accord GR Energy has 130+ wells, and now they have the technology to do what no one else has been able to—get the oil out of the ground at a massive discount.

Algorithms the Saudis Will Hate

The future of oil extraction is no longer about brute force—it’s about clever persuasion.

These technologies are the next logical advancement in our determination to get more oil out of the ground. In this decade, first it was fracking—now it’s enhanced oil recovery (EOR), a branch that is expanding at breakneck speed.

The company behind the technology is Galex Energy Corporation, and this isn’t the company’s only innovation: They’ve developed multiple technologies to add a happy ending to any geological story. The process is called S-BTF (baric-thermal flow) and is custom designed to unlock Wardlaw’s oil riches.

The two key technologies incorporated into the S-BTF process are:

SWEPT uses impulse waves to facilitate the recovery of fossil hydrocarbons by improving rock filtration and fluid properties, in-situ natural energy and flue migration forces. In other words, the future of unlocking our oil riches lies in the application of complicated engineering algorithms of the impact on surfaces and substances of impulse waves. The algorithms may be complicated, but the process itself is very simple—which makes it brilliantly economic: A SWEPT generator mounted on the wellhead generates waves. The waves travel downward, reaching a deflector and spreads out hundreds of meters (the wave parameters are determined by algorithms in advance based on the geological data of the specific location). The end result: Optimization of conditions for oil’s flow to the surface with a final steam-gas fraction to displace it from stubborn pores that we could never before budge.

 

S-BRPT – Galex’s proprietary thermobaric process for recovery of oil, including extra heavy and degraded oil. SISG, the core technology used in the process, is a frontier technology for producing fossil hydrocarbons and resynthesizing them into marketable products. The process was initially custom developed for the Utah-based Asphalt Ridge tar sand property of Petroteq Energy, and was planned to be used by Bear Rock Petroleum, Inc. So, ‘BRPT’ stands for ‘Bear Rock Petroleum Technology’.

A number of other proprietary Galex technologies have been developed specifically for the Wardlaw field to be incorporated into and support the S-BTF process. Most of the technologies are now patented in the US and may be used outside of Wardlaw to recover degraded hydrocarbons from any energy-lacking, mostly shallow reservoir.

In September’ 2016, the Accord-Galex team made the first attempt to establish communication with the oil zone using key components of the S-BTF process. The attempt was successful. In February and May this year, the optimized method was tried again, first on old, and then on new wells.

The result exceeded expectations and proved the feasibility of commercial activation of the field using the S-BTF process. Randal Pruitt, a member of Accord’s Board of Directors and a former BP vice-president, after reviewing the results of those trials and recognizing the potential of the process, offered his own decoding of the acronym BTF: “Bigger Than Fracking”.

Accord Energy is making the most of SWEPT at Wardlaw. In February 2016, they tested the technology on a particularly rough extraction patch. In fact, they tested it in the most depleted area of the field, and the results were ground-breaking.

They set out to extract the seemingly impermeable oil buried deep in this matrix—the oil that makes up 90% of the field’s reserves. And they did: SWEPT increased the well rates from single gallons to greater than 10 barrels per day.

(Click to enlarge)

Now Accord is moving on to Phase 2, and they’re using S-BRPT—and history is in the making, and indeed it’s shaping up to be ‘bigger than fracking’.

Profitable Partnerships

As we close in on releasing the massive amounts of oil trapped in the tricky rock of Wardlaw, a series of very savvy relationships has led the way to minting the next oil barons—and it’s got nothing to do with the supermajors (yet).

Accord is all about capitalizing on the current oil market down-trend by acquiring sub-economic assets, improving their technical efficiency and increasing their value exponentially thanks to major tech advancements by its innovation nerve center – Galex.

The Wardlaw project is the first sizeable acquisition of Accord GR Energy. Petroteq Energy is the largest single shareholder in Accord, and it’s the brains behind Accord’s business decisions. It intends to consolidate forces with other Accord shareholders to create the most technically advanced and dynamically growing E&P company in the ever-changing crude oil producing industry.

Petroteq has a been a leader in small-cap innovation, bringing us the first clean oil sands extraction solution. And in the small-cap world, their advanced asset management expertise is hard to beat.

But where it gets even more interesting is this: Accord is the only E&P company that enjoys the full support of Galex with respect to the licensing of technologies, and the design and optimization of oil recovery and handling processes, such as SWEPT, S-BRPT and S-BTF. Not only can they extract the hundreds of millions of barrels from Wardlaw and other properties they own, but they can synergistically extend the process to Petroteq’s Asphalt Ridge field and beyond.

American Oil Boom 2.0

Petroteq’s strategy with Accord is specifically targeting shallow reserves first because it’s a great place to start with these technological advancements. Reserves are abundant, proven and well-defined—and the drilling costs are low, so the margins are attractive.

Usually the oil of such deposits is viscous to extremely viscous, and formations lack any energy to drive the oil through the rocks. That’s what really makes reserves of this type non-economic to produce. However, with technologies resolving these challenges at low cost and at efficient production rates, these reserves will serve as the basis for the next phase in the oil technology revolution.

The potential goes far beyond Wardlaw. According to Petroteq, there are more than 2 trillion barrels of oil and natural bitumen reserves to be unlocked by new EOR technology in North America and Latin America alone.

The list of only the largest basins ripe for SWEPT and S-BRPT is mouth-watering:

• Canadian oil sands, 80% of which at present cannot be recovered economically;

• Natural bitumen deposits of Utah-Colorado-Wyoming basins

• Southern California basins both on and offshore

• Extremely shallow Permian Basin deposits and plays known in areas from Edwards County at the southern edge through New Mexico in the north.

• Southwest Texas Extra Heavy Oil basins just north of Eagle Ford basin

• Mexico Chicontepec and other deposits

• Venezuela Orinoco Bend extended throughout Colombia-Ecuador-Peru accumulations

And there are many smaller-scale plays in between.

At Wardlaw, over $2 million has already been invested and three new wells have been drilled, while Accord has decided on the S-BTF process.

So far, it’s been a brilliant ride. Using the new technology, Accord has discovered a new oil zone of 16 feet, with immediate plans to establish steady commercial production and drill up to 25 new wells in the 40-acre pilot production block.

In the short term, the company is planning to reactivate existing wells to use the new technology. Then it’s on to several more production pilots of 10-25 wells each. Beyond that, it’s all about expansion and picking and choosing from the formidable list of basins ripe for savvy EOR.

Texas: The Oil Giant that Never Sleeps

Nothing is inaccessible anymore. We proved that with shale, but that was only the first step in a momentous journey.

The only thing needed to make these oil riches assessible is the implementation of new technology The reserves left in the ground—not just at Wardlaw—are massive. And the math is fantastic because these reserves have already been explored and developed. It’s just a matter of extraction.

So, what’s bigger than fracking? Well, a balance of intelligent strategic planning, technology that can get at reserves of over 2 trillion barrels of oil at a dramatically lower cost, with greater efficiency and a smaller environmental footprint.

Fracking was only the beginning. What comes next is an extraction coup of gigantic proportions.

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Trump’s Middle East Foreign Policy is a Disaster Waiting to Happen

Today’s post will focus on Trump’s recent visit to Saudi Arabia, a revolting spectacle which I could barely bring myself to follow. It all started Saturday morning as I tried to enjoy a beautiful day with my growing family and parents who were in town for a visit. My day was more or less ruined upon witnessing the appalling scene of Trump and his top advisors dancing with the rulers of the terrorist sponsoring state of Saudi Arabia while clutching swords. I’m sorry for doing this to you, but in case you missed it…

– From last month’s piece: America Has Become a Total Joke

The main thing we learned from Trump’s grotesque, orb clutching spectacle of a visit to the 9/11-funding absolute monarchy of Saudi Arabia, was that our demented President essentially green-lighted the Saudis to do whatever the heck they want in the Middle East. Considering Saudi Arabia is effectively being run by a 30-something princeling with sociopathic tendencies, absolutely nothing good can come of this. While Obama’s foreign policy in the Middle East was an unmitigated humanitarian and geopolitical disaster, it appears Trump’s doing his best to one up his predecessor.

Saudi Arabia is the most dangerous entity in the Middle East, and the writing has been on the wall for a long time. In fact, German intelligence warned about it back in 2015. As The Telegraph reported at the time:

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Democratic Congressman Drafts Articles Of Impeachment: “The Facts Are Indisputable… This Is Obstruction Of Justice”

Texas Democrat Al Green says he’s readying the paperwork to officially call for President Donald Trump’s impeachment, a notable escalation from three weeks ago, when he first called for the president’s removal on the floor of the House.

As the Hill reports, it’s unclear when Green will officially introduce the articles he’s currently drafting. It’s also unclear if he’ll have any co-sponsors, though Green has not been alone in his calls for impeaching Trump (he has somehow beaten California Democrat Maxine Waters to the punch).

But regardless of when he files them, Green’s articles have little chance of seeing the light of day in a House chamber controlled by Republicans, who have rallied behind Trump amid multiple investigations into ties between Russia and members of the president’s inner circle.

Even Democrats are wary of impeachment, having allegedly hit upon the strategy of playing up Trump’s missteps, believing it will work to their favor in the midterms. Here’s the Hill with more:

“Green’s effort comes even as Democratic leaders are treading much more lightly in their approach to the Russia-Trump saga. With Trump’s approval rating underwater – and new details in the Russia probe emerging almost daily – party leaders sense an opportunity to make huge gains at the polls in 2018 and don’t want to overplay their hand.

 

They’ve tamped down any talk of impeachment, calling instead for the creation of an independent, 9/11-style commission to investigate the Russia inquiry.

Green’s criticisms focus on Trump’s firing of former FBI Director James Comey, who was leading the administration’s probe into Russia’s meddling in the 2016 elections.

The facts are simple and indisputable. The President fired the FBI Director because the director was investigating the President’s campaign connections to Russian interference in the Presidential Election,” Green said Tuesday evening in a statement.

 

“This is obstruction of justice.”

That’s actually not true. The facts suggest that Trump did nothing wrong. And as CNN reported yesterday, it appears that the former FBI director has changed his mind once again and decided to stop short of accusing Trump of obstruction when he testifies before the Senate Intelligence Committee on Thursday. Don’t forget: Comey already testified that he was not pressured by the administration earlier this year.

Even Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi agreed that nobody has provided a smoking gun to justify an impeachment on the grounds of obstruction.  “The only thing that matters are the facts – the facts and the law.” And right now, there’s absolutely no evidence that the Trump campaign colluded with the Russians, or that Trump obstructed justice.

Green has rejected that argument, contending that Trump’s actions have already risen to a level demanding congressional intervention.

“This will remain obstruction of justice regardless of the findings of any investigation,” he said.

As this graphic from Statista shows, impeachment is a lengthy process and requires a simple majority from the House Judiciary Committee, the House of Representatives and a two-thirds majority of the Senate.

Infographic: What an Impeachment Would Look Like | Statista

You will find more statistics at Statista

Still, we are sure The Democrats have the ability to wait this out for another three-and-a-half years… and odds of impeachment are ticking up very slightly once again…

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Market Confirms ‘No Smoking Gun’ In Comey Testimony – Stocks Up, Gold Down

It would appear – despite the media bluster – that markets are quickly convinced that Comey's prepared remarks have no "smoking gun" and nothing new to warrant concerns about President Trump's presidency…

This is the statement that appears to have defused the concerns…

I immediately prepared an unclassified memo of the conversation about Flynn and discussed the matter with FBI senior leadership. I had understood the President to be requesting that we drop any investigation of Flynn in connection with false statements about his conversations with the Russian ambassador in December.

 

I did not understand the President to be talking about the broader investigation into Russia or possible links to his campaign. I could be wrong, but I took him to be focusing on what had just happened with Flynn’s departure and the controversy around his account of his phone calls. Regardless, it was very concerning, given the FBI’s role as an independent investigative agency.

Stocks surge and Gold "safe-haven" is offered…

 

And The Dollar is well bid…adding to the confidence after Intel Officials confirmed Trump did not pressure them…

 

This seemed to sum it up nicely…

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7 Years of Work on Food Forest Destroyed Over Permit

Via The Daily Bell

Imagine working for seven years to build a community food forest. It would be a very fulfilling project to take a neighborhood and transform it into a living food source full of fruit trees, luscious vines, and edible ground cover.

And imagine all your hard work being torn away in an instant by the city council.

Literally torn away; what would you be thinking and feeling as they sent landscaping crews to tear out the trees, some with fruit still one them, and grind them into wood chips.

Unfortunately, what could only be a feeling of utter exasperation and crushing disbelief was forced upon residents of Sunshine Coast, Australia. The people of a section of the city banded together to transform 11 city blocks into a food forest of which at least 200 people enjoyed the fruits.

The city council felled an entire stretch of this Urban Food Street, even preventing residents from collecting the fruit before the destruction.

Councillor Ted Hungerford said the felling of the trees was disappointing, but the council was left with no option after a resident had not applied for a permit, nor opted to relocate the trees to private property.

He said the requirement for a free permit and public liability insurance applied throughout the region, and so far 23 residents had fulfilled those requirements.

Another 10 residents had removed or relocated the trees to private property.

Cr Hungerford said this morning’s actions came after many months of negotiations, and the landholder for the three properties had also been issued with $609 infringement notices for each property.

Another four properties have compliance notices due in June.

And here is a perfect example of the insanity of government at every level. Here are people coming up with real solutions and productive community activities. But all the city council can do is gripe about permits and liability insurance.

Some residents said they didn’t even know about the requirements, but that hardly matters. What matters is that some bullies in the local government care more about pieces of paper than human beings. They care more about protecting their worthless pathetic City Council jobs, and probably imagine themselves quite the adept local governors. Clearly, they are out of touch with reality.

Because the city claims ownership over the property in front of people’s homes where a sidewalk would go, they were required to get permits to have fruit trees in that space — and most everyone did. However, because one resident didn’t apply for a permit, the entire area was leveled.

Resident Gail Felgenhauer told ABC that the council was belligerent, bullying and discriminatory.

“We’ve had multiple meetings and presented multiple options and ideas for solving their imagined problems,” she said.

And despite ornamental plants strewn about the roadsides throughout the Sunshine Coast area, it was only the fruit trees the city council had a problem with, complicating things further by requiring insurance.

Ms Felgenhaur said the citrus fruit from the felled trees would have been enough to provide about 12 months worth of jam for residents.

“And there was a dozen or more paw paws, beautiful paw paws … that lovely resident over there who has a physical disability, he ate the paw paws regularly,” she said.

“It’s just such waste.”

Imagine if every neighborhood grew an organic food forest. The benefits are voluminous; teaching kids about horticulture, providing free or cheap healthy food without pesticides, and increasing local food consumption (which decreases shipping costs and pollution). It also adds to the aesthetic beauty of a neighborhood and gives a sense of control, a sense of well-being. You are not so divorced from what you eat, it is not out of reach in an emergency.

Put the Pressure On Local Government

The solution here is pretty obvious: grab the pitchforks and torches and burn down city hall.

Just kidding, as satisfying as that would be. Rather, the residents of this city should clearly do everything they can to make sure those city council members do not get reelected, as well as investigate possible bribes from industries which would benefit from the destruction of a food forest. In the past, grocery stores have pushed city councils into cracking down on residential vegetable gardens.

They should probably also use some social pressure to make the councilors’ lives miserable.

When big fish in small ponds take actions like this, they deserve to be ridiculed by the community everywhere they go. Instead of excusing the enforcers and decision makers in our communities who act like their hands are tired, who do evil for a paycheck, and who stomp on the rights and lives of those around them, they should be made into social outcasts.

But for most of us, we can just not move to a town like that. Most local governments are still relatively responsive, even if grudgingly.

Recently a county in Oregon backed off their plan to spray poisonous glyphosate on an organic farm which failed to control invasive weeds. The law was changed to force private property owners to completely eradicate certain plants, whereas before they were only required to “control” them. The local government was going to ruin a business and 20 years of organic soil maintenance but backed off when they received thousands of angry calls and emails.

A similar case unfolded in Flint, Michigan where the city council put liens on homes of people who did not pay for their tainted, poisonous water. Again, after word got out and people from all over responded to tell them what they thought, they backed off and suspended the requirements for a year. We will have to see what happens when the year runs out.

If you would like to express to the Sunshine Coast Council what you think of their actions (in a constructive and non-threatening way), here is their contact information. And here is their Facebook page, where the council actually brags about recycling plastic bags and promoting work in the agriculture industry! A bit ironic.

Make a Food Forest

People spend a lot of time, effort, and money landscaping their yard with pretty, but useless plants. Planting a food forest is a great investment, as it provides nontaxable income (fruit). It is also a hedge against uncertain economic conditions–worst case scenario, you will have something to eat.

At this point, everywhere that people live could be turned into vast food forests completely transforming our ideas of where food should come from. Imagine the freedom, health, and community that this transformation would promote. It would be quite the upset for the food industry.

Personally, I prefer to do these types of things on private property so as not to run into issues with what local authorities might think. Of course, this means it is not a community project, but rather a personal one. It depends on your goals.

Check out this video of the food forest which I am building. It’s only a year and a half old, so many of the trees and plants are still small and relatively unproductive. But hey, got to start somewhere!

via http://ift.tt/2s4P6Qb TDB

Comey Releases Prepared Remarks: “I Hope You Can See Your Way To Letting This Go… I Need Loyalty”

Ahead of tomorrow's much-anticipated testimony, former FBI Director James Comey has released his prepared remarks.

 

Full Prepared Remarks below…highlights are bolded

Statement for the Record

Senate Select Committee on Intelligence James B. Comey

June 8, 2017

Chairman Burr, Ranking Member Warner, Members of the Committee. Thank you for inviting me to appear before you today. I was asked to testify today to describe for you my interactions with President-Elect and President Trump on subjects that I understand are of interest to you. I have not included every detail from my conversations with the President, but, to the best of my recollection, I have tried to include information that may be relevant to the Committee.

January 6 Briefing

I first met then-President-Elect Trump on Friday, January 6 in a conference room at Trump Tower in New York. I was there with other Intelligence Community (IC) leaders to brief him and his new national security team on the findings of an IC assessment concerning Russian efforts to interfere in the election. At the conclusion of that briefing, I remained alone with the President- Elect to brief him on some personally sensitive aspects of the information assembled during the assessment.

The IC leadership thought it important, for a variety of reasons, to alert the incoming President to the existence of this material, even though it was salacious and unverified. Among those reasons were: (1) we knew the media was about to publicly report the material and we believed the IC should not keep knowledge of the material and its imminent release from the President-Elect; and (2) to the  extent there was some effort to compromise an incoming President, we could blunt any such effort with a defensive briefing.

The Director of National Intelligence asked that I personally do this portion of the briefing because I was staying in my position and because the material implicated the FBI’s counter-intelligence responsibilities. We also agreed I would do it alone to minimize potential embarrassment to the President-Elect. Although we agreed it made sense for me to do the briefing, the FBI’s leadership and I were concerned that the briefing might create a situation where a new President came into office uncertain about whether the FBI was conducting a counter-intelligence investigation of his personal conduct.

It is important to understand that FBI counter-intelligence investigations are different than the more-commonly known criminal investigative work. The Bureau’s goal in a counter-intelligence investigation is to understand the technical and human methods that hostile foreign powers are using to influence the United States or to steal our secrets. The FBI uses that understanding to disrupt those efforts. Sometimes disruption takes the form of alerting a person who is targeted for recruitment or influence by the foreign power. Sometimes it involves hardening a computer system that is being attacked. Sometimes it involves “turning” the recruited person into a double-agent, or publicly calling out the behavior with sanctions or expulsions of embassy-based intelligence officers. On occasion, criminal prosecution is used to disrupt intelligence activities.

Because the nature of the hostile foreign nation is well known, counter- intelligence investigations tend to be centered on individuals the FBI suspects to  be witting or unwitting agents of that foreign power. When the FBI develops reason to believe an American has been targeted for recruitment by a foreign  power or is covertly acting as an agent of the foreign power, the FBI will “open an investigation” on that American and use legal authorities to try to learn more about the nature of any relationship with the foreign power so it can be disrupted.

In that context, prior to the January 6 meeting, I discussed with the FBI’s leadership team whether I should be prepared to assure President-Elect Trump that we were not investigating him personally. That was true; we did not have an open counter-intelligence case on him. We agreed I should do so if circumstances warranted. During our one-on-one meeting at Trump Tower, based on President- Elect Trump’s reaction to the briefing and without him directly asking the question, I offered that assurance.

I felt compelled to document my first conversation with the President-Elect in a memo. To ensure accuracy, I began to type it on a laptop in an FBI vehicle outside Trump Tower the moment I walked out of the meeting. Creating written records immediately after one-on-one conversations with Mr. Trump was my practice from that point forward. This had not been my practice in the past. I spoke alone with President Obama twice in person (and never on the phone) – once in 2015 to discuss law enforcement policy issues and a second time, briefly, for him to say goodbye in late 2016. In neither of those circumstances did I memorialize the discussions. I can recall nine one-on-one conversations with President Trump in four months – three in person and six on the phone.

January 27 Dinner

The President and I had dinner on Friday, January 27 at 6:30 pm in the Green Room at the White House. He had called me at lunchtime that day and invited me to dinner that night, saying he was going to invite my whole family, but decided to have just me this time, with the whole family coming the next time. It was unclear from the conversation who else would be at the dinner, although I assumed there would be others.

It turned out to be just the two of us, seated at a small oval table in the center of the Green Room. Two Navy stewards waited on us, only entering the room to serve food and drinks.

The President began by asking me whether I wanted to stay on as FBI Director, which I found strange because he had already told me twice in earlier conversations that he hoped I would stay, and I had assured him that I intended to. He said that lots of people wanted my job and, given the abuse I had taken during the previous year, he would understand if I wanted to walk away.

My instincts told me that the one-on-one setting, and the pretense that this was our first discussion about my position, meant the dinner was, at least in part, an effort to have me ask for my job and create some sort of patronage relationship. That concerned me greatly, given the FBI’s traditionally independent status in the executive branch.

I replied that I loved my work and intended to stay and serve out my ten- year term as Director. And then, because the set-up made me uneasy, I added that  I was not “reliable” in the way politicians use that word, but he could always count on me to tell him the truth. I added that I was not on anybody’s side politically  and could not be counted on in the traditional political sense, a stance I said was in his best interest as the President.

A few moments later, the President said, “I need loyalty, I expect loyalty.” I didn’t move, speak, or change my facial expression in any way during the awkward silence that followed. We simply looked at each other in silence. The conversation then moved on, but he returned to the subject near the end of our dinner.

At one point, I explained why it was so important that the FBI and the Department of Justice be independent of the White House. I said it was a paradox: Throughout history, some Presidents have decided that because “problems” come from Justice, they should try to hold the Department close. But blurring those boundaries ultimately makes the problems worse by undermining public trust in the institutions and their work.

Near the end of our dinner, the President returned to the subject of my job, saying he was very glad I wanted to stay, adding that he had heard great things about me from Jim Mattis, Jeff Sessions, and many others. He then said, “I need loyalty.” I replied, “You will always get honesty from me.” He paused and then said, “That’s what I want, honest loyalty.” I paused, and then said, “You will get that from me.” As I wrote in the memo I created immediately after the dinner, it is possible we understood the phrase “honest loyalty” differently, but I decided it wouldn’t be productive to push it further. The term – honest loyalty – had helped end a very awkward conversation and my explanations had made clear what he should expect.

During the dinner, the President returned to the salacious material I had briefed him about on January 6, and, as he had done previously, expressed his disgust for the allegations and strongly denied them. He said he was considering ordering me to investigate the alleged incident to prove it didn’t happen. I replied that he should give that careful thought because it might create a narrative that we were investigating him personally, which we weren’t, and because it was very difficult to prove a negative. He said he would think about it and asked me to think about it.

As was my practice for conversations with President Trump, I wrote a detailed memo about the dinner immediately afterwards and shared it with the senior leadership team of the FBI.

February 14 Oval Office Meeting

On February 14, I went to the Oval Office for a scheduled counter- terrorism briefing of the President. He sat behind the desk and a group of us sat in a semi-circle of about six chairs facing him on the other side of the desk. The  Vice President, Deputy Director of the CIA, Director of the National Counter- Terrorism Center, Secretary of Homeland Security, the Attorney General, and I were in the semi-circle of chairs. I was directly facing the President, sitting between the Deputy CIA Director and the Director of NCTC. There were quite a few others in the room, sitting behind us on couches and chairs.

The President signaled the end of the briefing by thanking the group and telling them all that he wanted to speak to me alone. I stayed in my chair. As the participants started to leave the Oval Office, the Attorney General lingered by my chair, but the President thanked him and said he wanted to speak only with me. The last person to leave was Jared Kushner, who also stood by my chair and exchanged pleasantries with me. The President then excused him, saying he wanted to speak with me.

When the door by the grandfather clock closed, and we were alone, the President began by saying, “I want to talk about Mike Flynn.” Flynn had resigned the previous day. The President began by saying Flynn hadn’t done anything wrong in speaking with the Russians, but he had to let him go because he had misled the Vice President. He added that he had other concerns about Flynn, which he did not then specify.

The President then made a long series of comments about the problem with leaks of classified information – a concern I shared and still share. After he had spoken for a few minutes about leaks, Reince Priebus leaned in through the door by the grandfather clock and I could see a group of people waiting behind him. The President waved at him to close the door, saying he would be done shortly. The door closed.

The President then returned to the topic of Mike Flynn, saying, “He is a good guy and has been through a lot.” He repeated that Flynn hadn’t done anything wrong on his calls with the Russians, but had misled the Vice President. He then said, “I hope you can see your way clear to letting this go, to letting Flynn go. He is a good guy. I hope you can let this go.” I replied only that “he is a good guy.” (In fact, I had a positive experience dealing with Mike Flynn when he was a colleague as Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency at the beginning of my term at FBI.) I did not say I would “let this go.”

The President returned briefly to the problem of leaks. I then got up and left out the door by the grandfather clock, making my way through the large group of people waiting there, including Mr. Priebus and the Vice President.

I immediately prepared an unclassified memo of the conversation about Flynn and discussed the matter with FBI senior leadership. I had understood the President to be requesting that we drop any investigation of Flynn in connection with false statements about his conversations with the Russian ambassador in December. I did not understand the President to be talking about the broader investigation into Russia or possible links to his campaign. I could be wrong, but I took him to be focusing on what had just happened with Flynn’s departure and the controversy around his account of his phone calls. Regardless, it was very concerning, given the FBI’s role as an independent investigative agency.

The FBI leadership team agreed with me that it was important not to infect the investigative team with the President’s request, which we did not intend to abide. We also concluded that, given that it was a one-on-one conversation, there was nothing available to corroborate my account. We concluded it made little sense to report it to Attorney General Sessions, who we expected would likely recuse himself from involvement in Russia-related investigations. (He did so two weeks later.) The Deputy Attorney General’s role was then filled in an acting capacity by a United States Attorney, who would also not be long in the role.

After discussing the matter, we decided to keep it very closely held, resolving to figure out what to do with it down the road as our investigation progressed. The investigation moved ahead at full speed, with none of the investigative team members – or the Department of Justice lawyers supporting them – aware of the President’s request.

Shortly afterwards, I spoke with Attorney General Sessions in person to pass along the President’s concerns about leaks. I took the opportunity to implore the Attorney General to prevent any future direct communication between the President and me. I told the AG that what had just happened – him being asked to leave while the FBI Director, who reports to the AG, remained behind – was inappropriate and should never happen. He did not reply. For the reasons discussed above, I did not mention that the President broached the FBI’s potential investigation of General Flynn.

March 30 Phone Call

On the morning of March 30, the President called me at the FBI. He described the Russia investigation as “a cloud” that was impairing his ability to act on behalf of the country. He said he had nothing to do with Russia, had not been involved with hookers in Russia, and had always assumed he was being recorded when in Russia. He asked what we could do to “lift the cloud.” I responded that we were investigating the matter as quickly as we could, and that there would be great benefit, if we didn’t find anything, to our having done the work well. He agreed, but then re-emphasized the problems this was causing him.

Then the President asked why there had been a congressional hearing about Russia the previous week – at which I had, as the Department of Justice directed, confirmed the investigation into possible coordination between Russia and the Trump campaign. I explained the demands from the leadership of both parties in Congress for more information, and that Senator Grassley had even held up the confirmation of the Deputy Attorney General until we briefed him in detail on the investigation. I explained that we had briefed the leadership of Congress on exactly which individuals we were investigating and that we had told those Congressional leaders that we were not personally investigating President Trump.  I reminded him I had previously told him that. He repeatedly told me, “We need to get that fact out.” (I did not tell the President that the FBI and the Department of Justice had been reluctant to make public statements that we did not have an open case on President Trump for a number of reasons, most importantly because it would create a duty to correct, should that change.)

The President went on to say that if there were some “satellite” associates of his who did something wrong, it would be good to find that out, but that he hadn’t done anything wrong and hoped I would find a way to get it out that we weren’t investigating him.

In an abrupt shift, he turned the conversation to FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe, saying he hadn’t brought up “the McCabe thing” because I had said McCabe was honorable, although McAuliffe was close to the Clintons and had given him (I think he meant Deputy Director McCabe’s wife) campaign money. Although I didn’t understand why the President was bringing this up, I repeated that Mr. McCabe was an honorable person.

He finished by stressing “the cloud” that was interfering with his ability to make deals for the country and said he hoped I could find a way to get out that he wasn’t being investigated. I told him I would see what we could do, and that we would do our investigative work well and as quickly as we could.

Immediately after that conversation, I called Acting Deputy Attorney General Dana Boente (AG Sessions had by then recused himself on all Russia- related matters), to report the substance of the call from the President, and said I would await his guidance. I did not hear back from him before the President called me again two weeks later.

April 11 Phone Call

On the morning of April 11, the President called me and asked what I had done about his request that I “get out” that he is not personally under investigation. I replied that I had passed his request to the Acting Deputy Attorney General, but I had not heard back. He replied that “the cloud” was getting in the way of his ability to do his job. He said that perhaps he would have his people reach out to the Acting Deputy Attorney General. I said that was the way his request should be handled. I said the White House Counsel should contact the leadership of DOJ to make the request, which was the traditional channel.

He said he would do that and added, “Because I have been very loyal to you, very loyal; we had that thing you know.” I did not reply or ask him what he meant by “that thing.” I said only that the way to handle it was to have the White House Counsel call the Acting Deputy Attorney General. He said that was what he would do and the call ended.

That was the last time I spoke with President Trump.

 

via http://ift.tt/2qXpBvO Tyler Durden