After 475% Stock Rally In 2013, Venezuela Begins “Operation Against Speculation”

Venezuelan President Maduro is on the wires confirming that all is well in the nation – nothing to see here…

  • *VENEZUELA’S MADURO ANNOUNCES ‘NEW PHASE’ TO STABALIZE ECONOMY
  • *VENEZUELA’S MADURO SAYS HE’LL MAKE ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
  • *BLACK MARKET FX RATE IS HARMING VENEZUELA ECONOMY: MADURO
  • *VENEZUELA TO START OPERATION AGAINST SPECULATION, MADURO SAYS

Yep, so after a 475% rise in the Caracas Stock Index YTD, he sees ‘speculation’ and will announce some ‘economic fixes’… this should be good…

 


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/5NiW-j2iW2k/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Chart Of The Day: Bernanke Has Officially Created The Bizarro Market

Over the past year there has been some confusion about whether Ben Bernanke has managed to not only completely break the stock market (which, if one harkens back to hallowed antiquity used to discount good or bad news in the future, and “trade” accordingly), but also invert it fully. The chart below from Guggenheim will once and for all put any such confusion to rest.

As Guggenheim’s Scott Minderd points out “The 52-week correlation between S&P 500 returns and the change in the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has plunged from 0.45 to -0.13 over the past 12 months. A negative correlation indicates that weak U.S. economic data tends to push equity prices higher, while strong economic data tends to send them lower.

What’s the explanation?

In a similar manner to 2005, when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 200 basis points in a year, the current plunge in this correlation indicates that the expectation of continued monetary accommodation has trumped economic fundamentals to become the main factor determining the near-term outlook for U.S. equities.

In short: a broken, inverted market, driven purely and entirely by hopes of an even bigger liquidity bubble, and even more greater fools to offload to.

And that, in a nutshell, is your “market.”


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/3CoIGprTaWw/story01.htm Tyler Durden

BofA Warns "Further Euro Appreciation Is A Problem"

With only 3 of 70 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expecting a rate cut at tomorrow's ECB press conference, Credit Agricole's Frederik Ducorzet suggests seven signals to watch for from Draghi that could signal ECB easing ahead. Crucially, as BofAML puts it, "further euro appreciation is a problem, particularly for the periphery," and with empirical Phillips curves in hand, there is little room for further compensation via wage reduction. In other words, if Draghi stands pat (or doesn't offer up some sacrificial forward guidance hint of easing being likely), the drumbeat of social unrest in the periphery will grow ever louder.

 

These 7 signals should be watched for carefully, according to Credit Agricole's Frederik Ducrozet, as hints that further ECB easing is on its way…

For ECB refinancing rate cut to be delivered in December, following conditions need to be met:

1. Explicit hint about rate cut discussion if asked whether decision was unanimous

 

2. Signal may be conditional on Dec. staff forecasts

 

3. Hint toward likely shift in balance of risks to price stability/reference to FX and oil prices on inflation

 

4. Keeping deposit rate at zero

Draghi may become more explicit on ECB’s liquidity plans:

5. Explicit reference to LTRO, reduction in reserve requirements or suspension of SMP sterilization may have greatest market impact

 

6. Market may be disappointed if ECB says it remains attentive to money market conditions without more details

 

7. Easy solution would be extension of fixed-rate full allotment regime in 2015

 

Which is crucial, for a s BofAML notes, while the euro is not overvalued, it is close to the upper end of its equilibrium range. Therefore, the euro area can afford a stronger euro, but not a much stronger euro. However, their evidence suggests a much lower euro threshold for the periphery, with little room to compensate with wage reductions.

 

 

 

Our estimates suggest that a further euro appreciation by about 3% in real effective terms would bring the currency to the early stages of an overvalued territory.

Moreover, the strength of the euro this year has already started offsetting the periphery's competitiveness gains, which the region achieved during a painful adjustment in recent years.

The chart above shows equilibrium estimates for the euro area and selective member countries, using the IMF's CGER methodology, which combines a number of equilibrium measures. According to our estimates, the euro is currently overvalued by about 7%.

However, our estimates also suggest that the euro could soon become overvalued if it continues appreciating. Moreover, the euro is already overvalued (beyond the ±10% range) from the point of view of Greece, Ireland and Spain. And PPP estimates suggest that the euro is overvalued by 20% against the USD.

The periphery cannot afford a much stronger euro

The strength of the euro is partly offsetting the competitiveness improvements that the periphery has achieved in recent years. Our estimates suggest that the euro is already too strong for Greece, Ireland and Spain, but within the equilibrium range for Italy and Portugal.

The Phillips Curve for euro-area economies has flattened substantially, which could make rebalancing more difficult, as countries require much higher unemployment (or output gaps) to achieve the same price adjustments. As wages are less reactive than before, peripheral countries need persistently high levels of unemployment to achieve rebalancing through wages.

 

 

 

In our view, there is little room to keep pushing through that route in countries with overleveraged households.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/qY0wxb1_Dcw/story01.htm Tyler Durden

BofA Warns “Further Euro Appreciation Is A Problem”

With only 3 of 70 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expecting a rate cut at tomorrow's ECB press conference, Credit Agricole's Frederik Ducorzet suggests seven signals to watch for from Draghi that could signal ECB easing ahead. Crucially, as BofAML puts it, "further euro appreciation is a problem, particularly for the periphery," and with empirical Phillips curves in hand, there is little room for further compensation via wage reduction. In other words, if Draghi stands pat (or doesn't offer up some sacrificial forward guidance hint of easing being likely), the drumbeat of social unrest in the periphery will grow ever louder.

 

These 7 signals should be watched for carefully, according to Credit Agricole's Frederik Ducrozet, as hints that further ECB easing is on its way…

For ECB refinancing rate cut to be delivered in December, following conditions need to be met:

1. Explicit hint about rate cut discussion if asked whether decision was unanimous

 

2. Signal may be conditional on Dec. staff forecasts

 

3. Hint toward likely shift in balance of risks to price stability/reference to FX and oil prices on inflation

 

4. Keeping deposit rate at zero

Draghi may become more explicit on ECB’s liquidity plans:

5. Explicit reference to LTRO, reduction in reserve requirements or suspension of SMP sterilization may have greatest market impact

 

6. Market may be disappointed if ECB says it remains attentive to money market conditions without more details

 

7. Easy solution would be extension of fixed-rate full allotment regime in 2015

 

Which is crucial, for a s BofAML notes, while the euro is not overvalued, it is close to the upper end of its equilibrium range. Therefore, the euro area can afford a stronger euro, but not a much stronger euro. However, their evidence suggests a much lower euro threshold for the periphery, with little room to compensate with wage reductions.

 

 

 

Our estimates suggest that a further euro appreciation by about 3% in real effective terms would bring the currency to the early stages of an overvalued territory.

Moreover, the strength of the euro this year has already started offsetting the periphery's competitiveness gains, which the region achieved during a painful adjustment in recent years.

The chart above shows equilibrium estimates for the euro area and selective member countries, using the IMF's CGER methodology, which combines a number of equilibrium measures. According to our estimates, the euro is currently overvalued by about 7%.

However, our estimates also suggest that the euro could soon become overvalued if it continues appreciating. Moreover, the euro is already overvalued (beyond the ±10% range) from the point of view of Greece, Ireland and Spain. And PPP estimates suggest that the euro is overvalued by 20% against the USD.

The periphery cannot afford a much stronger euro

The strength of the euro is partly offsetting the competitiveness improvements that the periphery has achieved in recent years. Our estimates suggest that the euro is already too strong for Greece, Ireland and Spain, but within the equilibrium range for Italy and Portugal.

The Phillips Curve for euro-area economies has flattened substantially, which could make rebalancing more difficult, as countries require much higher unemployment (or output gaps) to achieve the same price adjustments. As wages are less reactive than before, peripheral countries need persistently high levels of unemployment to achieve rebalancing through wages.

 

 

 

In our view, there is little room to keep pushing through that route in countries with overleveraged households.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/qY0wxb1_Dcw/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Exit Strategy… What Exit Strategy?

Crash Course creator Chris Martenson explains why it’s easier to start than to stop quantitative easing: “A lot of what we hear is the Fed’s exit strategy … what most people don’t know is that this thing doesn’t work in reverse very well at all.” In this excellent interview with RT, Martenson explains why Bernanke & Co. found it relatively simple to start their money printing, but why they will have a hell of a time getting off the runaway QE train.

This interview was conducted at the Casey Research Summit held in October (more here).


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/HRvV4PwZDK4/story01.htm Tyler Durden

OF COURSE Obamacare Exchanges Will Be Manipulated

The Big Boys Manipulate EVERY Market … While Would Obamacare Be Any Different?

The following exchanges are being widely manipulated by big banks, hedge funds and other players:

  • Currency
  • Interest rates
  • Energy
  • Gold and silver
  • Derivatives
  • Carbon (i.e. “cap and trade”)
  • Virtually all other commodities
  • Basically all exchanges

Why do you think Obamacare will be different?

The leverage which huge pots of cash, insider information and high-frequency trading give to the big banks and other big players makes exchanges an easy target.

The big boys play dirty.

And the Obama administration is allegedly exempting the Obamacare exchanges from anti-fraud standards

As the New York Times notes:

Billions could flow from Washington to Wall Street, indeed.

Postscript:  True progressives such as Eric Zeusse and Yves Smith have long warned that Obamacare is nothing but a giant giveaway to big health insurance companies.

But it is also a new opportunity for Wall Street to extract huge sums by manipulating a new market.

Bonus: 


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/4kNPAP72Tbs/story01.htm George Washington

October Mortgage Purchase Applications Collapse To Decade Lows

Applications for mortgages for the purchase of a home plunged at nearly the fastest pace in 9 months this week, dropping to their lowest since the Christmas week 2012 – and lowest since February 2012. Now down over 20% from their May highs, the plunge is a problem – since as BofA’s CEO noted earlier:

  • *MOYNIHAN SAYS HOME PURCHASES, NOT REFI, BOOST THE ECONOMY

So just another indicator that all is not well in the ‘economy’.

 

What is perhaps most worrisome is that this is the lowest level of mortgage purchase activity for this time of year in a decade.

 

Chart: Bloomberg


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/-nnKEoz-pKU/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Meet The Greater Fool: "I'm Just Buying Because Everybody's Talking About Twitter"

Wondering who you will flip your IPO allocation to? Meet 56-year-old admin assistant, Deborah Watkins… “I messed up by not buying any Facebook, so I want to get some Twitter.”

 

AS WSJ reports,

On her Tuesday lunch break, Deborah Watkins walked through gray drizzle from her office to the TD Ameritrade… The receptionist just inside the front door told her trading at the so-called IPO price – available to large investors and certain brokerage customers before the shares begin trading publicly – wasn’t available to her.

 

Ms. Watkins said she’d buy the shares once they begin trading, expected Thursday.

 

“They think little money is no money,” she said of Ameritrade

 

 

Ms. Watkins said she plans to buy about 50 shares… She said she’s not worried about price increases; she just wants to stick to her purchasing plan and buy the shares immediately, though she hasn’t ruled out selling them quickly if there’s a sharp bump.

 

 

Ms. Watkins said she’s interested in the hyped stock because of her economics-major nephew and because she knows what happened with Apple Inc. and Facebook Inc. prices and doesn’t want to miss out,

 

“I’m just buying because everybody’s talking about Twitter,” she said. “I’m just gonna take a chance.”

 

And there it is… the new normal  – immediate gratification, take a chance, over-hyped investment opportunities… What could possibly go wrong?


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/2Arpt7zF-KU/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Meet The Greater Fool: “I’m Just Buying Because Everybody’s Talking About Twitter”

Wondering who you will flip your IPO allocation to? Meet 56-year-old admin assistant, Deborah Watkins… “I messed up by not buying any Facebook, so I want to get some Twitter.”

 

AS WSJ reports,

On her Tuesday lunch break, Deborah Watkins walked through gray drizzle from her office to the TD Ameritrade… The receptionist just inside the front door told her trading at the so-called IPO price – available to large investors and certain brokerage customers before the shares begin trading publicly – wasn’t available to her.

 

Ms. Watkins said she’d buy the shares once they begin trading, expected Thursday.

 

“They think little money is no money,” she said of Ameritrade

 

 

Ms. Watkins said she plans to buy about 50 shares… She said she’s not worried about price increases; she just wants to stick to her purchasing plan and buy the shares immediately, though she hasn’t ruled out selling them quickly if there’s a sharp bump.

 

 

Ms. Watkins said she’s interested in the hyped stock because of her economics-major nephew and because she knows what happened with Apple Inc. and Facebook Inc. prices and doesn’t want to miss out,

 

“I’m just buying because everybody’s talking about Twitter,” she said. “I’m just gonna take a chance.”

 

And there it is… the new normal  – immediate gratification, take a chance, over-hyped investment opportunities… What could possibly go wrong?


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/2Arpt7zF-KU/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Move Over FX And Libor, As Manipulation And "Banging The Close" Comes To Commodities And Interest Rate Swaps

While the public’s attention has been focused recently on revelations involving currency manipulation by all the same banks best known until recently for dispensing Bollinger when they got a Libor end of day print from their criminal cartel precisely where they wanted it (for an amusing take, read Matt Taibbi’s latest), the truth is that manipulation of FX and Libor is old news. Time to move on to bigger and better markets, such as physical commodities, in this case crude, as well as Interest Rate swaps. And, best of all, the us of our favorite manipulation term of all: “banging the close.”

The story of crude oil manipulation, primarily involving Platts as a pricing intermediary, has appeared on these pages in the past as far back as a year ago, and usually resulted in either participant companies, regulators or entire nation states doing their best to brush it under the rug. However, it is becoming increasingly more difficult to do so as the following Bloomberg story demonstrates.

Four longtime traders in the global oil market claim in a lawsuit that the prices for buying and selling crude are fixed — and that they can prove it. Some of the world’s biggest oil companies including BP Plc (BP/), Statoil ASA (STL), and Royal Dutch Shell Plc conspired with Morgan Stanley and energy traders including Vitol Group to manipulate the closely watched spot prices for Brent crude oil for more than a decade, they allege. The North Sea benchmark is used to price more than half the world’s crude and helps determine where costs are headed for fuels including gasoline and heating oil.

 

The case, which follows at least six other U.S. lawsuits alleging price-fixing in the Brent market, provides what appears to be the most detailed description yet of the alleged manipulations and lays out a possible road map for regulators investigating the matter.

 

The traders who brought it — who include a former director of the New York Mercantile Exchange, or Nymex, one of the markets where contracts for future Brent deliveries are traded – – allege they paid “artificial and anticompetitive prices” for Brent futures. They also outline attempts to manipulate prices for Russian Urals crude and cite instances when the spread between Brent and Dubai grades of crude may have been rigged.

 

The oil companies and energy-trading houses, which include Trafigura Beheer BV and Phibro Trading LLC, submitted false and misleading information to Platts, an energy news and price publisher whose quotes are used by traders worldwide, according to the proposed class action filed Oct. 4 in Manhattan federal court.

The method of manipulation is a well-known one to regular readers: spoofing.

Over 85 pages, the plaintiffs describe how the market allegedly showed that the Dated Brent spot price was artificially driven up or down by the defendants, depending on what would profit them most in swap, futures or spot markets. They allege the defendants used methods including “spoofing” – – placing orders that move markets with the intention of canceling them later. Platts’ methodology “can be easily gamed by market participants that make false, inaccurate or misleading trades,” the plaintiff traders alleged. BFOE refers to the four oil grades — Brent, Forties, Oseberg and Ekofisk — that collectively make up the Dated Brent benchmark.

Ironically, spoofing is one of the primary mechanisms by which the HFT cabal has also benefitted, and been able to, levitate the market to ever record-er highs on ever lower volume. That, and Bernanke of course.

What do the plaintiff’s allege?

Kovel represents plaintiffs Kevin McDonnell, a former Nymex director, as well as independent floor traders Anthony Insinga and Robert Michiels, and John Devivo, who held a seat on Nymex and traded for his own account. The complaint says the plaintiffs are among the largest traders of Brent crude futures contracts on Nymex and the Intercontinental Exchange. The four, who don’t specify the amount they are claiming in damages, seek to represent all investors who traded Brent futures on the two exchanges since 2002.

 

The plaintiffs allege that in February 2011, defendants manipulated the trade of Forties-blend crude, one of four grades used by Platts to determine the Dated Brent benchmark, which represents the price of physical cargoes for delivery on the spot market.

 

Shell offered to sell shipments to keep the price of Forties “artificially low,” according to the plaintiffs.

 

Morgan Stanley (MS) was the only buyer for one of four such orders, or cargoes, totaling 2.4 million barrels of oil, the traders said. The Feb. 21, 2011, transaction was prearranged to set a lower price for Dated Brent, according to the complaint.

So how was such wholesale manipulation able to continue for over a decade? Simple – same reason why nobody “knew” anything about the Libor cabal until recently – alligned financial interests of every participating party, in this case Platts, a unit of McGraw Hill Financial – the same parents as Standard & Poors rating agency – and all the other major commodity players in the space.

“By BFOE boys,” the plaintiffs said in their complaint, “this trader was likely referring to the cabal of defendants, including Shell, which controlled the MOC process.” The claimants also alleged that in September 2012, Shell, BP, Phibro, Swiss-based Vitol and Netherlands-based Trafigura rigged the market through “a combination of spoofing, wash trades and other artificial transactions” in the Platts pricing process.

 

The defendants pressured the market downward at the start of the month by colluding to carry out irregular and “uneconomic” trades, according to the lawsuit. They drove prices higher later that month, it said.

 

The four traders said Platts was “reluctant to exclude” the irregular trades because BP and Shell are “significant sources of revenue” to Platts.

Or, said simpler, don’t ask, don’t tell, and keep cashing those checks.

Full lawsuit can be read below:

 

* * *

And in other news, the CFTC just charged DRW Investments with price manipulation by way of “banging the close” in Interest Rate Swap Futures Markets.

Defendants allegedly manipulated the IDEX USD Three-Month Interest Rate Swap Futures Contract by “Banging the Close”

 

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) today filed a civil enforcement action in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York against Donald R. Wilson (Wilson) and his company, DRW Investments, LLC
(DRW). The CFTC’s Complaint charges Wilson and DRW with unlawfully manipulating and attempting to manipulate the price of a futures contract, namely the IDEX USD Three-Month Interest Rate Swap Futures Contract (Three-Month Contract) from at least January 2011 through August 2011. The Complaint alleges that as a result of the manipulative scheme, the defendants profited by at least $20 million, while their trading counterparties suffered losses of an equal amount.

 

According to the Complaint, in 2010 the Three-Month Contract was listed by the International Derivatives Clearinghouse (IDCH) and traded on the NASDAQ OMX Futures Exchange, and was publicized as an alternative to over-the-counter, i.e., off-exchange, products. Wilson and DRW believed that they could trade the contract for a profit based on their analysis of the contract. At the end of 2010, Wilson caused DRW to acquire a large long (fixed rate) position in the Three-Month Contract with a net notional value in excess of $350 million. The daily value of DRW’s position was dependent upon the daily settlement price of the Three-Month Contract calculated according to IDCH’s methodology. As Wilson and DRW knew, the methodology relied on electronic bids placed on the exchange during a 15-minute period, the “settlement window,” prior to the close of each trading day. In the absence of such bids, the exchange used prices from over-the-counter markets to determine its settlement prices. Wilson and DRW anticipated that the value of their position would rise over time.

 

The market prices did not reach the level that Wilson and DRW had hoped for and expected, according to the Complaint. Rather than accept that reality, Wilson and DRW allegedly executed a manipulative strategy to move the Three-Month Contract market price in their favor by “banging the close,” which entailed placing numerous bids on many trading days almost entirely within the settlement window, none of which resulted in actual transactions as DRW regularly cancelled the bids. Under the exchange’s methodology, DRW’s bids became the settlement prices, and in this way DRW unlawfully increased the value of its position, according to the Complaint.

But the take home message here is simple: no matter the pervasive manipulation everywhere else, and seemingly by everyone including such titans of ethical fortitude as Steve Cohen, gold is not, repeat not, never has been, never will be manipulated.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/mzsANJTu9uk/story01.htm Tyler Durden