Tag: finance

The “polar vortex” shock has arrived, only this time it is not in the form of another 12 inches of overnight snow accumulation but in the shape of household utility bills. A reader was kind enough to send us his just received ConEd bill for the month ended Februery 10. The result speaks for itself. It also speaks for where so much of US household disposable income will go in first quarter. Spoiler alert: not toward discretionary purchases.

 

If readers have more dramatic instances of the “Polar Vortex” invoice shock, please forward them to us at the usual address.

And unfrotunately it will get worse before it gets better. On the back of a rapid decline in the “glut” of low cost natural gas (as stockpiles are drawn down to the lowest level since 2004) and the shift in forecast (that the freezing weather could last well into March), Natural gas futures are soaring (up over 10% today). This is the highest front-month futures contract price since December 2008 as “the possibility of periodic shortages now looms.”

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1jHMqKg Tyler Durden

The “polar vortex” shock has arrived, only this time it is not in the form of another 12 inches of overnight snow accumulation but in the shape of household utility bills. A reader was kind enough to send us his just received ConEd bill for the month ended Februery 10. The result speaks for itself. It also speaks for where so much of US household disposable income will go in first quarter. Spoiler alert: not toward discretionary purchases.

 

If readers have more dramatic instances of the “Polar Vortex” invoice shock, please forward them to us at the usual address.

And unfrotunately it will get worse before it gets better. On the back of a rapid decline in the “glut” of low cost natural gas (as stockpiles are drawn down to the lowest level since 2004) and the shift in forecast (that the freezing weather could last well into March), Natural gas futures are soaring (up over 10% today). This is the highest front-month futures contract price since December 2008 as “the possibility of periodic shortages now looms.”

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1jHMqKg Tyler Durden

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,318.75, EUR 959.09 and GBP 791.14 per ounce.            

Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,314.00, EUR 957.59 and GBP 787.44 per ounce.  

Gold slipped on Wednesday and came off 14 week highs hit in the previous session as traders booked profits.

Gold in Euros,  5 Years – (Bloomberg)

Worries about global economic growth are underpinning gold’s safe-haven appeal and the technicals suggest that after a pullback, the precious metal may continue to rise in dollar and other fiat currencies and in terms of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (see long term chart). A period of correction and consolidation would ordinarily be expected after such rapid gains.

Gold touched $1,332.10 an ounce yesterday, the strongest since October 31st, before shedding some of the gains. Bullion has risen around 9% so far this year. Premiums for gold bars in Singapore and Hong Kong remain steady and Hong Kong premiums were at $1.30 to $1.70 an ounce over spot London prices.  

 
Gold in U.S. Dollars, 1920 -February 18, 2014 – (Bloomberg)

Hedge funds and money managers have raised their speculative long positions in gold futures and options to a three-month high on signs the Fed will not rush to cut its stimulus, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed on Friday.

The Federal Reserve’s January policy meeting minutes, when it decided to trim its money printing and U.S. government debt buying by $10 billion, are due for release at 1900 GMT. Traders will scrutinise the minutes for clues regarding whether the Fed will maintain their ultra loose monetary policies.

Trends forecaster, Gerald Celente, who correctly forecast the recent $10 billion taper, told Russia Today overnight that the Federal Reserve is again “blowing bubbles,” as is the ECB.

After the Nasdaq and property bubbles, we now have huge debt bubbles being created, said Celente. This is leading to BRICS nations having concerns about a “monetary tsunami” and concerns about the euro and dollar and may lead to a new reserve currency for the world – possibly a basket of currencies.

This poses risks to both the dollar and the euro and both may fall in value in the coming months and the question is “which one is going to go first?”

Celente again warned of the economic parallels with the 1930’s and said that we are again seeing recession and depressions, currency wars, trade wars and that this would lead to actual wars.


Gerald Celente, Trends Research Institute

He warned that the cost of living is going to continue to rise and standards of living are set to fall. Although the official government inflation data may not show this, as they do not include energy and food. “After all we don’t have to eat or use fuel. What deranged mind would really include that into a core index.”

Celente concludes that the “books are being cooked, the numbers are a lot worse than they are showing and all the Fed is doing is pumping this up so that it looks like there is a recovery up until Election day.”

Webinar: Gerald Celente On Strategies For Protecting Your Wealth In 2014 And Beyond

Join Gerald Celente on this broadcast tomorrow as he examines the opportunities in 2014 and in the coming uncertain years.

Gerald Celente needs little introduction: Founder of The Trends Research Institute in 1980, Gerald Celente is a pioneer trend strategist. He is author of the national bestseller Trends 2000 and Trend Tracking (Warner Books) and publisher of the internationally circulated Trends Journal newsletter.

Celente’s Trends Research Institute has been featured on Oprah Winfrey amongst hundreds of media interviews and credited with forecasting many major geopolitical and economic trends.

These include the “Panic of ’08,” the collapse of the Soviet Union, the dot-com bust, the 1997 Asian currency crisis, the 1987 world stock market crash, increased terrorism against America, “Crusades 2000,” and the quagmire in Iraq … before war began and the last two recessions.

 

This webinar is scheduled for tomorrow, February 20, 2014 1:00 PM – 2:00 PM GMT and will be moderated by Mark O’Byrne, Head of Research at GoldCore.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1gW51lm GoldCore

Bank of America expects the FOMC minutes to reveal broad support for the continuation of "measured" tapering, with general discussion around what conditions might lead the FOMC to deviate from a $10bn per month pace, but few, if any, specifics. A small number of Fed officials are likely to express worry about the costs and efficacy of QE, but the majority should see those as less important and focus on signs of continued recovery in the labor market. Forward guidance is likely to have less agreement, with a few members supporting reducing the unemployment threshold, a few favoring no change at all, and several supporting a shift toward a more qualitative approach. We expect the FOMC to drop the unemployment threshold and introduce vaguer but more robust qualitative guidance at their March meeting.

Via BofAML,

The minutes of the January FOMC meeting are likely to reveal a number of debates within the Committee but not necessarily much resolution. Recall that weather was just starting to become a significant potential explanation for a rash of soft data reports, while the turmoil in global financial markets was in full force.

We look for Fed officials to acknowledge some risks to the outlook, but largely view them as short-lived and not moving their expectations for continued improvements in US growth and employment.

On inflation, Chair Yellen's testimony made it clear that the FOMC still isn't particularly worried about the persistently low rate. We expect an active debate all year about cyclical vs. structural sources of labor market weakness and the risks to the inflation outlook.

A number of Fed officials see a significant share of the unemployed as structural, but many others still see some role for monetary policy to offset lingering cyclical forces. A few have suggested that the persistently low inflation means that there may be more slack in the economy than some labor indicators imply.

On policy, we expect the minutes to reveal broad support for the continuation of "measured" tapering, with general discussion around what conditions might lead the FOMC to deviate from a $10bn per month pace, but few, if any, specifics. A small number of Fed officials are likely to express worry about the costs and efficacy of QE, but the majority should see those as less important and focus on signs of continued recovery in the labor market.

Forward guidance is likely to have less agreement, with a few members supporting reducing the unemployment threshold, a few favoring no change at all, and several supporting a shift toward a more qualitative approach. We expect the FOMC to drop the unemployment threshold and introduce vaguer but more robust qualitative guidance at their March meeting. There may be some additional discussion of other ways to strengthen guidance as asset purchases wind down.

Further consideration of the operating procedures during the exit strategy is likely as well, and this too should be an ongoing discussion this year.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1gGAkB1 Tyler Durden

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A verse to the Land Of The Sheep

So many of whom are asleep

Nothing can save

The Home Of The Slave

The Banksters are dug-in too deep!

The Limerick King

 

 

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via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1gW514W williambanzai7

Independence Square… then and now…

h/t Reuters

Trade Unions House… then and now…

h/t @BBCNews

 

h/t @BenjaminBidder

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1ghVp2n Tyler Durden

Even before Fed’s Williams poured cold water on un-taper hopes, it seems new highs in US stocks were being aggressively protected in the options markets. Today the divergence between an exuberant stock market and a defensive options market (VIX) is getting extreme… With the S&P and Russell having achieved their technical goal of ‘unchanged’ year-to-date, it appears the BTFATH’ers have left the building for a moment.

 

 

Since the US open, USDJPY and US stocks have seen their ‘beta’ explode and somewhat decouple…

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1gGpMBV Tyler Durden

Even before Fed’s Williams poured cold water on un-taper hopes, it seems new highs in US stocks were being aggressively protected in the options markets. Today the divergence between an exuberant stock market and a defensive options market (VIX) is getting extreme… With the S&P and Russell having achieved their technical goal of ‘unchanged’ year-to-date, it appears the BTFATH’ers have left the building for a moment.

 

 

Since the US open, USDJPY and US stocks have seen their ‘beta’ explode and somewhat decouple…

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1gGpMBV Tyler Durden

As we observed yesterday, the market action over the past weeks can be summarized with one word: untaper. Specifically, in light of recent data, the Koolaid addicts had hoped that the crunch in the economy would be sufficient for the Fed to taper the taper, and slow down its removal of crutches, which ironically means that the media should have been focusing on the real causes of the winter swoon – i.e., the tapped out consumer and not blaming snow in the winter. Alas, for all those who had hoped that Yellen would promptly shift to Untaper mode, Fed uber dove Williams has just one present: a glass of (appropriately) ice cold water.

As expected:

• WILLIAMS SAYS ‘RECENT DATA HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT DISAPPOINTING’

However,

• WILLIAMS SAYS POLICY SHOULD TAKE MEDIUM TERM VIEW
  FED’S WILLIAMS SAYS ECONOMY LOOKING ‘REALLY SOLID’ FOR THIS YR

Which means:

• FED’S WILLIAMS: ‘HURDLE IS PRETTY HIGH’ FOR CHANGING TAPER PACE
  FED’S WILLIAMS SAYS NOW IS TIME TO FOR PULLING BACK QE

And keep in mind Williams is about as dovish as they come: there is hardly anyone on the FOMC who wanted the taper to taper more than Williams. End result: sharp pullback in stocks which after touching briefly unchanged for the year, have taken a sharp leg lower.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1gVWBuf Tyler Durden