Tag: finance

The possibility of a French recession is not exactly new: even the venerable Economist penned an an extensive article – with a humorous cover – over a year ago describing just such a possibility (the French were unamused). Yet to this date, not only has France managed to avoid the dreaded “Triple Dip” but its bonds continue to be well-bid, with the yield on the 10 Year well inside the US, at only 2.53%, nearly 1% below the wides seen in 2011. However, and especially now that Hollande’s 75% millionaire tax has finally been enacted, the fuse on the baguette time bomb is getting shorter.

As GaveKal’s Francois Chauchat rhetorically asks, “Is every country in Europe recovering, but France? This is the question raised by a third consecutive month of disappointing French manufacturing Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs), which plunged to 47 in December even as the eurozone-wide PMI expanded to 52.7, a 31-month high. Such a large divergence is peculiar, since France and eurozone PMIs have historically been aligned. It could be that

France’s recovery is just a bit more painful and taking that much longer—but what if the real story is that the country is slipping back into recession?

 

Judged by the PMI surveys alone, and the economy indeed looks to be contracting, a pretty worrying development since the rest of the advanced economies are firmly in growth territory. Another recession would suggest that socialist President Francois Hollande’s targeted high tax agenda has hit a wall, and that a messy revision in economic policy, possibly preceded by financial market pressure, could be in store.

The divergence between France and the rest of Europe can be seen vividly on the European PMI chart below:

So a French recession would be a bad thing, right? Well, yes – for the French population, and certainly whatever is left of its middle class. However, as has been made clear repeatedly, in the New Normal in which only the trickle down effects from the wealth effect of the 1% matters, what the broader population wants and needs is hardly high on the list of priorities of the central planners. What does matter are stocks. And it is the wealthiest 1% and the stock market which, in keeping up with the old bad news is good news maxim, that may be the biggest beneficiary of a French triple dip.

The reason, at least according to GaveKal and increasingly others, is that a French re-re-recession would be precisely the catalyst that forces the ECB out of its inaction slumber and pushes it to engage in what every other “self-respecting” bank has been doing for the past five years – unsterilized quantitative easing: an event which the soaring European stocks have largely been expecting in recent weeks and months.

Quote GaveKal:

But even if the country is slipping back into recession, it is not clear that the “French tail risk” would reignite a broader euro financial crisis — a fear that has been raised repeatedly in the past few years. Would not a shockingly weak French GDP number rather increase pressure on the European Central Bank to act, weaken the euro and push Hollande to deliver more quickly and efficiently on his new pledge to regain business confidence? If this is what a still very hypothetical new French recession produces, not much lasting damage would be done to eurozone financial markets. Rather the opposite.

And there you have it: spinning bad economic news as more hopium for market bulls, and in fact setting the stage when the latest surge in risk assets just happens to coincide with that negative French GDP print, an outcome predicted by BNP two months ago, and an outcome which Draghi and the other ECB doves and which the Hawks on the ECB will theatrically complain about, but in the end, do nothing as usual. And with Merkel incapacitated, well: vive la recession!

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/IFugeERlgYg/story01.htm Tyler Durden

The possibility of a French recession is not exactly new: even the venerable Economist penned an an extensive article – with a humorous cover – over a year ago describing just such a possibility (the French were unamused). Yet to this date, not only has France managed to avoid the dreaded “Triple Dip” but its bonds continue to be well-bid, with the yield on the 10 Year well inside the US, at only 2.53%, nearly 1% below the wides seen in 2011. However, and especially now that Hollande’s 75% millionaire tax has finally been enacted, the fuse on the baguette time bomb is getting shorter.

As GaveKal’s Francois Chauchat rhetorically asks, “Is every country in Europe recovering, but France? This is the question raised by a third consecutive month of disappointing French manufacturing Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs), which plunged to 47 in December even as the eurozone-wide PMI expanded to 52.7, a 31-month high. Such a large divergence is peculiar, since France and eurozone PMIs have historically been aligned. It could be that

France’s recovery is just a bit more painful and taking that much longer—but what if the real story is that the country is slipping back into recession?

 

Judged by the PMI surveys alone, and the economy indeed looks to be contracting, a pretty worrying development since the rest of the advanced economies are firmly in growth territory. Another recession would suggest that socialist President Francois Hollande’s targeted high tax agenda has hit a wall, and that a messy revision in economic policy, possibly preceded by financial market pressure, could be in store.

The divergence between France and the rest of Europe can be seen vividly on the European PMI chart below:

So a French recession would be a bad thing, right? Well, yes – for the French population, and certainly whatever is left of its middle class. However, as has been made clear repeatedly, in the New Normal in which only the trickle down effects from the wealth effect of the 1% matters, what the broader population wants and needs is hardly high on the list of priorities of the central planners. What does matter are stocks. And it is the wealthiest 1% and the stock market which, in keeping up with the old bad news is good news maxim, that may be the biggest beneficiary of a French triple dip.

The reason, at least according to GaveKal and increasingly others, is that a French re-re-recession would be precisely the catalyst that forces the ECB out of its inaction slumber and pushes it to engage in what every other “self-respecting” bank has been doing for the past five years – unsterilized quantitative easing: an event which the soaring European stocks have largely been expecting in recent weeks and months.

Quote GaveKal:

But even if the country is slipping back into recession, it is not clear that the “French tail risk” would reignite a broader euro financial crisis — a fear that has been raised repeatedly in the past few years. Would not a shockingly weak French GDP number rather increase pressure on the European Central Bank to act, weaken the euro and push Hollande to deliver more quickly and efficiently on his new pledge to regain business confidence? If this is what a still very hypothetical new French recession produces, not much lasting damage would be done to eurozone financial markets. Rather the opposite.

And there you have it: spinning bad economic news as more hopium for market bulls, and in fact setting the stage when the latest surge in risk assets just happens to coincide with that negative French GDP print, an outcome predicted by BNP two months ago, and an outcome which Draghi and the other ECB doves and which the Hawks on the ECB will theatrically complain about, but in the end, do nothing as usual. And with Merkel incapacitated, well: vive la recession!

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/IFugeERlgYg/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Submitted by Ramsey Su via Acting Man blog,

I remember Ben Bernanke saying that lenders are overly stringent on underwriting, unnecessarily so. I assume Ms. Yellen is parroting the same message, and so are all those in the business, hoping for a return of no-qualification-needed financing.

Are current underwriting practices overly stringent? Yes and no. With the exception of the sub-prime era, underwriting has never been easier (read on before you start calling me names). At the same time, it has never been more difficult for many qualified borrowers to get a loan. This strange phenomenon is among the unintended consequences of ill-guided public policies.

Round peg/round hole, that is the best description current underwriting guidelines. It started with the conservatorship of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Combined with VA and FHA, these agencies have taken over the mortgage finance business with a 90% market share. In the meantime, Bernanke has purchased $788 billion of securities backed by agency loans in 2013.  The Treasury/Fed monopoly has been born. This combination of the Treasury guaranteeing and the Fed buying at manipulated rates made it impossible for any private label mortgage backed securities to compete against the GSEs. The private sector is left with a sliver of the business, mainly in the jumbo and oddball products.

With the dominance of the agencies,  agency guidelines became the law of the land. These guidelines are even more restrictive with the introduction of the CFPB's QM (qualified mortgage) guidelines.

 

Once upon a time there was an occupation known as loan officers. They evaluated a borrower's credit history, ability to pay, collateral and other factors in order to make lending decisions. Today, the title of loan officer may still exist but they are nothing more than children playing with a toy, the one that inserts pegs of different shapes into holes of the same shape. The mortgage version of this toy has only round holes. Round pegs will fit into this hole with ease. Good luck if your pegs are not round. A round peg borrower is a W-2 household, or one with a few years of steady tax returns. A so-so credit score in the low 700s is more than adequate. Even a 580 score is enough to get you an FHA loan. Do you have any idea how irresponsible you have to be in order to have a credit score that low? Speaking of the FHA, borrowers now may become eligible for an FHA loan just one year after a short sale, foreclosure or bankruptcy as long as they can show they experienced financial hardship due to extenuating circumstances, such as unemployment. You have to read this HUD instruction to believe it. FHA also allows co-signers, including blending the family members' income credit to arrive at an acceptable ratio and to cover the down payment as a gift. How much easier can it get?

Do not confuse cumbersome documentation with easy underwriting. Do not confuse easy qualifying with deteriorating qualification of borrowers. Just imagine how many borrowers have been knocked out of the market during 2013 with mortgage rates rising about 1% and double digit house price appreciation.

The mortgage industry is flawed. Underwriting guidelines are flawed. The secondary market is flawed. Policies are heading in the wrong direction. Any system, even sub-prime loans and sub-prime MBS, will work as long as property values appreciate enough to offset the flaws. It is when less than optimal economic conditions occur that the weaknesses surface. I could write a book on this subject but I will only use one simple illustration.

Here are two loan applications, from Joe Sr. and Joe Jr., both plumbers. They have an identical credit score, income, the minimal required down payment and are perfect round pegs at just under the 43% overall debt ratio. The Consumer Finance Protection Bureau has determined that these are Qualified Mortgages. The borrowers are well protected and have the ability to repay.

As it turns out, Joe Sr. is 60 with not many years left that he can bend under the sink. Joe Jr. is only 30 with a full career ahead. Both have no retirement savings (not required). Joe Sr. is going to be living off social security as soon as his back gives out. It is obvious that while these loans are both round pegs, one of them has a high probability of default. In reality, both loans are not likely to survive an economic downturn if the income of both borrowers declines. Both are hand to mouth borrowers with no ability to survive a few missed paychecks. Would you call these underwriting guidelines too stringent?

Anyway, I digressed. My point is underwriting today is not about sound lending practices. It is about how policy makers want to manipulate the market.

A truly healthy mortgage system requires the breakup of the Treasury/Fed monopoly and the return of portfolio lending by community banks. Neither are possible at this time. Therefore, it is useless to analyze the logic behind sound underwriting. It is far more important to anticipate what policy makers are going to do. We know the FHA is already the sub-prime lender of today. We know that with Mel Watt, the probability of more accommodation from Freddie and Fannie is likely. The easiest route is to quietly pass the cost of default insurance to the government, which would only be discovered when we have another down cycle. The Treasury would have to pick up the guarantees but let's not worry about that until we have to. Right?

Mortgage applications have been declining. The mini housing bubble is deflating. Borrower qualifications are not keeping pace with rising rates. What will Ms. Yellen do? Whether it is $40 billion or the tapered $35 billion per month, the Fed is already buying all agency purchase mortgage originations.

In conclusion, I eagerly await some clarification of policies from the new people at the helm of the Treasury/Fed mortgage monopoly, the Watt/Yellen combo. We shall see in the next few weeks.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/SLOmkYIsVgc/story01.htm Tyler Durden

The volatility in JPY crosses has been considerable since the start of the new year – likely sending many carry-trade-driven risk manager’s to the trading floors. USDJPY just broke back below 104.00 for the first time since 12/23, dragging the Nikkei 225 to its lowest level since the Taper. Notably, the Nikkei – having almost caught back up to the Dow on Boxing Day – is now at its cheapest in a month. The Nikkei is down 300 points from tofsay’s highs (tripe that of the Dow).

USDJPY at its lowest since 12/23 (i.e. JPY at its strongest)

 

For now, US equities are holding up post the EU close (as carry gets sold)…

 

Which has slammed the Japanese stocks back to their cheapest relative to the Dow in a month…(and eradicated all the post-Taper gains)…

 

Charts: Bloomberg

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/fiURpfH4NHU/story01.htm Tyler Durden

While America is preparing to usher in the coldest days of the 21st century, some other places around the globe are hardly as worried. Below is a photo from Rio’s Ipanema beach over the weekend, where temperatures hit 51 degrees. Celsius.

Maybe the global warming experts (and their rescuers) currently stuck in the Antarctic ice, should plan accordingly: plus the sights in Rio are certainly more enjoyable than in a barren ice wasteland…

Source: @pdacosta

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/RvyUSDVbEfg/story01.htm Tyler Durden

While America is preparing to usher in the coldest days of the 21st century, some other places around the globe are hardly as worried. Below is a photo from Rio’s Ipanema beach over the weekend, where temperatures hit 51 degrees. Celsius.

Maybe the global warming experts (and their rescuers) currently stuck in the Antarctic ice, should plan accordingly: plus the sights in Rio are certainly more enjoyable than in a barren ice wasteland…

Source: @pdacosta

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/RvyUSDVbEfg/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Faced with dramatically declining demographics, sliding macro fundamentals, cost pressures on firm margins, slumping support among the people, and a recently rising JPY, Shinzo Abe, Japan’s Prime Minister has decided an Op-Ed is the way to go to unveil his ‘government knows better’ concerted effort to raise Japanese worker’s pay. The collective denial is strong among the leadership – no better expressed than this gem: “Abenomics, I am proud to say, has been successful in a more fundamental sense: we have rebooted Japan’s collective psyche.” However, Abe’s approval rating has never been lower – falling dramatically in the last month or two.

 

 

Behold The Propaganda… Japan’s Coming “Wage Surprise”

Authored by Shinzo Abe, originally posted at Project Syndicate,

The year 2013 saw the Japanese economy turn the corner on two decades of stagnation. And the future will become even brighter with the appearance of what we are calling the “wage surprise.”

Intensive discussions since September among Japanese government, business, and labor leaders have been geared toward setting in motion an upward, virtuous cycle whereby increased wages lead to more robust growth. I have taken part in two of the four meetings so far, joining our finance minister, economy minister, and labor minister, as well as industry and labor leaders like Akio Toyoda, the head of Toyota Motors, and Nobuaki Koga, who leads the Japanese Trade Union Confederation. Each time, I have come away from the meeting feeling confident and invigorated.

Let’s face it. Deflationary pressure in Japan – and only in Japan – has persisted for well over a decade. At the beginning of my premiership, I launched what observers have called “Abenomics,” because only in my country had the nominal wage level remained in negative territory for a staggering length of time.

I was appalled when I first saw the statistics: Japan’s wage level since 2000 has fallen at an average annual rate of 0.8%, compared to average nominal-wage growth of 3.3% in the United States and the United Kingdom and 2.8% in France. In 1997, wage earners in Japan received a gross total of ¥279 trillion; by 2012, the total had fallen to ¥244.7 trillion.

In other words, Japan’s wage earners have lost ¥34.3 trillion over the last decade and a half – an amount larger than the annual GDP of Denmark, Malaysia, or Singapore. Only when this trend is reversed can Japan’s economy resume a long-term upward trajectory.

Meanwhile, Japan’s companies are no longer poorly capitalized. I, for one, remember how low the net-worth ratio for Japanese corporations was 15 years ago – below 20%, compared to more than 30% in Europe and the US. As a result, economists said, Japanese corporate behavior would be characterized by over-borrowing.

That is no longer the case. Thanks to the continued surge in corporate profitability and firms’ sustained deleveraging efforts during the last decade and a half, indebtedness has fallen dramatically. In terms of the net-worth ratio, corporate Japan is now on a par with Europe and the US.

Abenomics, I am proud to say, has been successful in a more fundamental sense: we have rebooted Japan’s collective psyche. In the year since my government took office, a mindset of resignation has given way to one of limitless possibility – a shift symbolized for many by Tokyo’s winning bid for the 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games. As a result, many Wall Street investors have bought the narrative and gone long on Japan.

That is what Abenomics’ first two “arrows” – bold monetary policy and flexible fiscal policy – have achieved so far. How about the third arrow, a set of policies to promote private investment so that productivity growth sustains Japan’s long-term recovery?

Some say that, unlike the first and second arrows, the third is hard to come by. I do not disagree: by definition, structural reforms take more time than changes in monetary and fiscal policy do. Many will require legislation, on which my colleagues in the Diet have been spending much of their time over the last couple of months. During this process, with its seemingly endless and convoluted floor debates, observers should not lose sight of the forest for the trees.

From joining the negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) to introducing specially deregulated zones (my own office will oversee their implementation), my government is committed to catalyzing economic recovery by all means available. Here, the wage surprise stands out, because only when the long-missing link between corporate profitability and wages is restored will investment in houses, cars, and other durables, and household consumption in general, finally rid Japan of its deflation and put its economy on a sustained growth path.

The wage surprise draws its inspiration from the Netherlands, where a consensus emerged in the early 1980’s that in order to sustain employment, the burden of taming rampant inflation should be shared by employers and the employed. That consensus was enshrined in the 1982 “Wassenaar Agreement,” named after The Hague suburb where it was forged.

Japan is now witnessing the emergence of a similar national consensus, or, rather, the Dutch consensus in reverse: a shared sense that the government, major industries, and organized labor should work together to increase wages and bonuses (while facilitating incentives that could enhance productivity).

Needless to say, wage levels ought to be determined solely by management and workers. But it is equally true that the emerging consensus among the government, business leaders, and trade unions already has led a growing number of companies to promise significantly higher wages and bonuses.

This is the essence of the wage surprise. It will be an entirely new phenomenon, one that, together with the massive ¥5 trillion fiscal stimulus, will more than offset the potential negative effect of a sales-tax increase. Most important, it will continue to put Japan’s economy on a sustainable growth trajectory. Of this I am certain.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/mqVW-hB9VBc/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Faced with dramatically declining demographics, sliding macro fundamentals, cost pressures on firm margins, slumping support among the people, and a recently rising JPY, Shinzo Abe, Japan’s Prime Minister has decided an Op-Ed is the way to go to unveil his ‘government knows better’ concerted effort to raise Japanese worker’s pay. The collective denial is strong among the leadership – no better expressed than this gem: “Abenomics, I am proud to say, has been successful in a more fundamental sense: we have rebooted Japan’s collective psyche.” However, Abe’s approval rating has never been lower – falling dramatically in the last month or two.

 

 

Behold The Propaganda… Japan’s Coming “Wage Surprise”

Authored by Shinzo Abe, originally posted at Project Syndicate,

The year 2013 saw the Japanese economy turn the corner on two decades of stagnation. And the future will become even brighter with the appearance of what we are calling the “wage surprise.”

Intensive discussions since September among Japanese government, business, and labor leaders have been geared toward setting in motion an upward, virtuous cycle whereby increased wages lead to more robust growth. I have taken part in two of the four meetings so far, joining our finance minister, economy minister, and labor minister, as well as industry and labor leaders like Akio Toyoda, the head of Toyota Motors, and Nobuaki Koga, who leads the Japanese Trade Union Confederation. Each time, I have come away from the meeting feeling confident and invigorated.

Let’s face it. Deflationary pressure in Japan – and only in Japan – has persisted for well over a decade. At the beginning of my premiership, I launched what observers have called “Abenomics,” because only in my country had the nominal wage level remained in negative territory for a staggering length of time.

I was appalled when I first saw the statistics: Japan’s wage level since 2000 has fallen at an average annual rate of 0.8%, compared to average nominal-wage growth of 3.3% in the United States and the United Kingdom and 2.8% in France. In 1997, wage earners in Japan received a gross total of ¥279 trillion; by 2012, the total had fallen to ¥244.7 trillion.

In other words, Japan’s wage earners have lost ¥34.3 trillion over the last decade and a half – an amount larger than the annual GDP of Denmark, Malaysia, or Singapore. Only when this trend is reversed can Japan’s economy resume a long-term upward trajectory.

Meanwhile, Japan’s companies are no longer poorly capitalized. I, for one, remember how low the net-worth ratio for Japanese corporations was 15 years ago – below 20%, compared to more than 30% in Europe and the US. As a result, economists said, Japanese corporate behavior would be characterized by over-borrowing.

That is no longer the case. Thanks to the continued surge in corporate profitability and firms’ sustained deleveraging efforts during the last decade and a half, indebtedness has fallen dramatically. In terms of the net-worth ratio, corporate Japan is now on a par with Europe and the US.

Abenomics, I am proud to say, has been successful in a more fundamental sense: we have rebooted Japan’s collective psyche. In the year since my government took office, a mindset of resignation has given way to one of limitless possibility – a shift symbolized for many by Tokyo’s winning bid for the 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games. As a result, many Wall Street investors have bought the narrative and gone long on Japan.

That is what Abenomics’ first two “arrows” – bold monetary policy and flexible fiscal policy – have achieved so far. How about the third arrow, a set of policies to promote private investment so that productivity growth sustains Japan’s long-term recovery?

Some say that, unlike the first and second arrows, the third is hard to come by. I do not disagree: by definition, structural reforms take more time than changes in monetary and fiscal policy do. Many will require legislation, on which my colleagues in the Diet have been spending much of their time over the last couple of months. During this process, with its seemingly endless and convoluted floor debates, observers should not lose sight of the forest for the trees.

From joining the negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) to introducing specially deregulated zones (my own office will oversee their implementation), my government is committed to catalyzing economic recovery by all means available. Here, the wage surprise stands out, because only when the long-missing link between corporate profitability and wages is restored will investment in houses, cars, and other durables, and household consumption in general, finally rid Japan of its deflation and put its economy on a sustained growth path.

The wage surprise draws its inspiration from the Netherlands, where a consensus emerged in the early 1980’s that in order to sustain employment, the burden of taming rampant inflation should be shared by employers and the employed. That consensus was enshrined in the 1982 “Wassenaar Agreement,” named after The Hague suburb where it was forged.

Japan is now witnessing the emergence of a similar national consensus, or, rather, the Dutch consensus in reverse: a shared sense that the government, major industries, and organized labor should work together to increase wages and bonuses (while facilitating incentives that could enhance productivity).

Needless to say, wage levels ought to be determined solely by management and workers. But it is equally true that the emerging consensus among the government, business leaders, and trade unions already has led a growing number of companies to promise significantly higher wages and bonuses.

This is the essence of the wage surprise. It will be an entirely new phenomenon, one that, together with the massive ¥5 trillion fiscal stimulus, will more than offset the potential negative effect of a sales-tax increase. Most important, it will continue to put Japan’s economy on a sustainable growth trajectory. Of this I am certain.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/mqVW-hB9VBc/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Roughly around the time when the death knell for SAC Capital as a hedge fund (now since defunct, existing purely as a family office following the biggest insider trading crackdown against a US-based hedge fund in history) was beating loudest, SkyBridge Capital’s Anthony Scaramucci seemed unable to fathom the gross criminality at a fund in which he had invested. As the NYT then reported, “A group of Mr. Cohen’s investors continue to stand by him and hope that he stays in business. For Anthony Scaramucci, chief executive of the hedge fund firm SkyBridge Capital and a friend of Mr. Cohen’s, sticking with SAC has as much to do with friendship and loyalty as it does its superior performance. “A lot of guys, when bombs are going off, you figure out very quickly who your friends are in the trenches,” Mr. Scaramucci said. “Most friends run from bullets, but your best friends run toward them. I have enormous amount of respect for the guy, and I think he’s misunderstood.” Or in other words: simple idolatry.

As it turned out, Cohen was quite well understood by pretty much everyone else, however what was certainly misunderstood was SkyBridge’s vetting process for asset allocation in criminal entities. Which perhaps explains the relative silence by the SkyBridge Capital’s chief since the SAC crack down. However, as it turns out Scaramucci was not merely sitting on his rapidly depleting AUM (recall: Fund Of Funds Implosion Forces Conversion Of Ever More Hedge Funds Into “Long-Onlies“) – he was busy determining the next generation of financial gurus.

As revealed in today’s Forbes, which has just presented its “30 Under 30” in, among other categories, finance, it was none other than Anthony Scaramucci (alongside Accel Partners Jim Breyer which perhaps explains why one of the “chosen youts” is an Accel Partners principal… and GloCap’s Adam Zoia), who headed the “Expert Panel” to select the new generation of financial wizards. The list is, as it always is, amusing.

Let’s dig into just who “the Mooch” considers Steve Cohen-replacement worthy. Ladies first:

 

Tracy Britt Cool, 29, Financial assistant to the chairman, Berkshire Hathaway

Emerging as an influential figure in Warren Buffett’s organization. Chairman at Benjamin Moore, Johns Manville, Larson-Juhl and Oriental Trading. Also on the board of H.J. Heinz.

* * *

Lucy Baldwin, 29, Managing director, Goldman Sachs

Director of Goldman’s European research management team and serving on the investment review committee. Previously headed Goldman’s European retail and consumer equity research.

* * *

Katie Keenan, 29, Associate, Blackstone Group

A rising star in the world’s largest real estate investment management business. Helped launch Blackstone’s first mortgage lending program, which has closed $2 billion of originations in five months. Led underwriting of $1.2 billion of real estate debt investments for various Blackstone vehicles.

* * *

Carryn McLaughlin, 29, Vice president, JPMorgan Chase

Earned CFP at 23 before moving to JPM Private Bank to manage a $2.7 billion book of biz as wealth manager for real estate moguls and their families.

* * *

And now the guys:

Luis Alvarado, 29, Investment research analyst, Wells Fargo Private Bank

Youngest member of Wells Fargo Private Bank investment team, which decides the allocation for $170 billion in managed assets. Solely responsible for building capital market assumptions, forming the foundation of recommendations for virtually every client account.

* * *

George Bachiashvili, 28, Founder, Georgian Co-Investment Fund

Runs a $6 billion private equity fund in Georgia that amounts to about 40% of the country’s GDP. Backed by Georgia’s own billionaire prime minister, who invested the initial $1 billion, creating some controversy around its investments in the Georgian economy. UAE’s Abu Dhabi Group and China’s Milestone International are among other big investors.

* * *

Sam Barnett, 24, Founder, SBB Research Group

Part scientist, part mathematician, Barnett started his quant hedge fund while still a CalTech undergrad and has since grown it into a $115 million firm with 15 employees. Returns have been solid.

* * *

Ganesh Betanabhatla, 28, Managing director, Talara Capital

Former JPMorgan oil & gas investment banker and vice president at Pine Brook Partners, now backed with up to $500 million heading Talara’s private equity efforts in the energy sector.

* * *

Rushabh Doshi, 29, Trader, DW Investment Management

Former Morgan Stanley and Brevan Howard trader, specializing in high-yield and distressed debt at Brevan’s external credit asset manager. Born in Mumbai; spent his teens in Topeka, KS.

* * *

Leigh Drogen, 27, Founder, Estimize

Founded company becoming popular on Wall Street by essentially crowdsourcing estimates for key data points on financial earnings releases. In an attempt to achieve greater precision, Estimize gathers information from independent, buy-side and sell-side analysts, together with those of private investors.

* * *

Fred Ehrsam, 25, Cofounder, Coinbase

As Bitcoin gradually becomes a mainstream phenomenon, Coinbase is trying to make it easy to use. The former Goldman Sachs currency trader is attemting to build “the PayPal for Bitcoin”; Coinbase is trying to make cryptocurrency accessible to the everyday consumer and merchant. Has raised $30 million from high profile VCs like Andreessen Horowitz, making it the top-funded Bitcoin start-up.

* * *

Eric Eisner, 29, VP, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Banking and Markets

Manages all Latin America low-beta sovereign debt trading for BofA Merrill. Low-beta trading was viewed as unprofitable and boring before he took over. He’s since turned it into a revenue generator for BofA trading over $30 billion in bonds and transforming the unit into a top-three top-franchise among big bank competitors.

* * *

Stephen Ensley, 29, Principal, Hellman & Friedman

Former JPMorgan mergers & acquisitions investment banker, now a principal for one of the most well-respected private equity firms. Has helped lead portfolio investments in companies like Pharmaceutical Product Development. Sits on the board of CarProof, a Canadian vehicle history report provider.

* * *

Brian Feinstein, 28, Partner, Bessemer Venture Partners

Started as an analyst and moved up to become the youngest partner in BVP’s 100+ year history. Now runs its Brazil and Russia investment team while also focusing on Internet and software opportunities in U.S. and Europe. Led a $10 million investment in a Brazilian mobile gaming company that’s since doubled its revenue.

* * *

Eugene Gokhvat, 28, Portfolio manager, BlueCrest Capital Management

Worked for Boaz Weinstein on Deutsche Bank’s prop desk. Now, manages his own large corporate bond portfolio at the U.S. outpost of a $35 billion European hedge fund.

* * *

Cameron Horwitz, 29, Research director, U.S. Capital Advisors

Heads oil & gas exploration and development research at boutique Texas financial firm. Big calls on companies like Pioneer Natural Resources helped get him singled out as a”rising star” on Institutional Investor’s influential research rankings.

* * *

Kevin Kaiser, 26, Managing director, Hedgeye Risk Management

Has recently managed to spark the ire of two billionaires with high-profile, negative calls on two major stocks. Following his recomendation to short Kinder Morgan, CEO Richard Kinder held a conference call to dispute his allegations. His comments on Linn Energy helped provoke hedge fund manager Leon Cooperman, a major shareholder of the MLP.

* * *

Eric Khrom, 28, Founder, Khrom Capital Management

Value investor backed by a major universtiy endowment. College dropout has posted some good returns while keeping a big chunk of his portfolio in cash. He manages some $40 million at the hedge fund he founded in 2008.

* * *

Maximilian Kuss, 27, Founder, European Media Holding AG

Used the proceeds of a gaming company and software publisher he helped found to start European Media Holding, an investing vehicle that now manages 250 million euros and looks to merge digital technologies with “old economy” companies. In September, online tire retailer Tirendo, in which EMH was a founding shareholder, sold for 50 million euros to publicly traded Delticom, in which EMH later took a substantial equity stake.

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John Locke, 29, Principal, Accel Partners

Venture capital investor focusing recently on growth-stage investments in areas like cyber security. Previously led investments in payment companies like Braintree, which is being purchased by eBay for $800 million. Played golf at Princeton.

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Chaitanya Mehra, 28, Portfolio manager, Och-Ziff Capital Management

Former Goldman Sachs trader, now a portfolio manager focusing on energy at Dan Och’s $39 billion firm, one of the largest hedge funds in the world.

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Neil Mehta, 29, Founder, Greenoaks Capital

Former investor at D.E. Shaw, helping to open the hedge fund’s Hong Kong office. Founded Greenoaks and now manages some $600 million, investing in industries ranging from ecommerce to insurance. Hit home runs with early investments in Palantir and Coupang.

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Vivek Ramaswamy, 28, Investment analyst, QVT Financial

Co-managing one of the hedge fund industry’s largest biotech-focused portfolios for Daniel Gold’s hedge fund. Well known for successful investments in companies developing antiviral drugs, including for the treatment of hepatitis C. Got a Yale law degree while working at the hedge fund.

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Adam Rodman, 29, Founder, Segra Capital Management

Former portfolio manager at Mark Hart’s Corriente Advisors, now backed by his old boss and other Texas money men like Harlan Korenvaes in new macro hedge fund.

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Sam Shikiar, 28, Vice president, Goldman Sachs

Heads U.S. electronic commodities trading team that focuses on metals and energy options. Previously worked in the asset management division for a quant hedge fund team on the Global Alpha and Equity Opportunities Funds.

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Andrew Silverman, 28, Vice president, Goldman Sachs

Star credit derivatives and bond trader has become one of the top distressed debt market makers in the world. Recent promotion to managing director goes into effect in 2014.

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Jeffrey Sun, 29, Executive director, Morgan Stanley

Primary trader at Morgan Stanley in oil products options, managing the investment bank’s exposure to things like jet fuel and diesel. Also trades crude oil options.

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Chris Yetter, 29, Head of Latin American Investments, Falcon Edge Capital

Spearheading some very profitable investments in Latin America for $2 billion hedge fund. Former trader at QVT. Taught in Spain.

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All of the above are fine and great, with the exception of some truly bizarre head-scratchers, but the real question is where are the “5 under 5” – after all, in Bernanke’s centrally planned new normal, in which there no risk only return, the ripe retirement age for E-Trade baby whizkid traders is now the mid-to-late teens.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/6zTmHCbnt90/story01.htm Tyler Durden