Tag: finance

Even though the Gilead “miracle drug” report was refuted by the company itself, which slammed the market-moving Statnews article (sourced reportedly from hedge funds who were seeking to take profit in GILD) as “anecdotal reports with no statistical power”, and even though Trump’s plans to reopen the country turned out to be far less pressing than expected, with Trump effectively handing power into the hands of states, this morning futures and global stocks have continued their move higher after blasting off last night on the Gilead/reopening speculation, with the euphoria persisting overnight as the small steps toward restarting the world’s largest economy helped investors look past mixed progress on curbing the coronavirus and the latest dismal data from China, where GDP posted its first contraction in four decades, sliding 6.8% or more than expected.

The data from China showed the world’s second-largest economy shrank for the first time since at least 1992 because of the coronavirus woes. GDP contracted 6.8% in the quarter year-on-year, more than expected, and 9.8% from the previous quarter. Retail sales also fell more than expected in March, but industrial output dipped only slightly, suggesting its manufacturing sector at least is recovering more quickly.

As WTI oil slumped, further extending its divergence with Brent…

… the dollar tried to rebound and bond yields were generally unchanged, US equity futures rallied nearly 100 points, or 4%,  from the Thursday close and approached the limit-up lock on several occasions, reflecting optimism that major economies will slowly start lifting lockdown restrictions and signs of medical progress against the virus.

The week is ending on an optimistic note after the White House set guidelines to reopen the economy, though it has yet to ensure that widespread testing will be available as many business leaders have urged. The president is under pressure, with 22 million Americans applying for jobless benefits in a month, erasing a decade worth of job creation. At the same time, infections have surged in Russia, Germany and Singapore. Investors also assessed a report that Gilead Sciences is seeing improvements in a group of coronavirus patients being treated with its drug, although the company itself refuted the report. German Chancellor Angela Merkel this week announced tentative steps to begin returning the country to normal.

“The market is a bit optimistic right now,” David Bailin, chief investment officer at Citi Private Bank, said on Bloomberg TV. “Ultimately we have to have really great coordination in order to see any real improvement in the economy.”

Prior to Friday’s cash open, the S&P 500 was up 0.4% this week and set for a second straight weekly gain – its first back-to-back weekly gain since before the market turmoil began in February – despite an unprecedented collapse in the US (and Chinese) economy, and 22 million people laid off in the past month, as investors scour first-quarter earnings to find signs of the novel coronavirus outbreak’s effects on companies’ balance sheets.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index also climbed 2.6%, entering a bull market, after it rose 20% from its March lows, with the travel and leisure sector leading the gains although all 19 industry groups were in the green. Banking stocks helped the Stoxx Europe 600 Index jump to a session high as lenders are said to seek to avert stashing billions for soured loans; the banks subgroup surges as much as 4.3%. European lenders are set to report comparatively small increases in loan loss reserves in the first quarter and plan a similar approach during the rest of the year, Bloomberg News reports, citing senior bankers and regulators.

European countries have “no choice” but to set up a fund that “could issue common debt with a common guarantee”, French President Emmanuel Macron told the Financial Times on Thursday. Failure to do so would lead to populists winning elections in Italy, Spain, and possibly France, he also warned.

Yields on ultra-safe 10-year U.S. Treasuries US10YT=RR and German Bunds rose slightly, while Treasury futures TYc1 and the dollar firmed against the yen JPY=EBS, in another tentative sign of investor optimism.

“The market continues to look through terrible data… on anticipation of economies reopening,” said Steen Jakobsen, Chief Investment Officer at Saxo Bank. “And hopes that a new drug treatment will help lift longer term uncertainty about the COVID-19 pandemic.”

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks gained as traders shrugged off the catastrophic China GDP data noted above, led by IT and materials, after falling in the last session. All markets in the region were up, with Jakarta Composite gaining 3.4% and South Korea’s Kospi Index rising 3.1%. The Topix gained 1.4%, with Riken Technos and Kichiri Holdings & Co Ltd rising the most. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.7%, with Zhejiang Xinneng Solar Photovoltaic Technology and Jiangsu Boxin Investing posting the biggest advances.

In rates, the 10Y yield initially bounced sharply from its 0.62% close rising almost as high as 0.69% before reversing virtually all gains. Italian bond markets, which have been under pressure as the country’s virus difficulties push its debt-to-GDP ratio towards 150%, also rallied as France expressed support for joint euro zone debt issuance.

In commodities, spot gold fell 1.5% to $1,692 per ounce too and with investors looking to take on more risk industrial metal copper jumped 4% on track for its best week since February 2019. No such luck for battered oil markets however. WTI futures slumped 8% to an 18-year low after OPEC had lowered of its global demand forecast on Thursday, and Brent crude slipped back under $28 a barrel having been up nearly 3% at one point. OPEC now sees a contraction of global demand of 6.9 million barrels per day (bpd) this year due to the coronavirus outbreak.

“Downward risks remain significant, suggesting the possibility of further adjustments, especially in the second quarter,” OPEC said of the demand forecast.

Looking at the day ahead, the data releases include new car registrations for March in the EU27, the Italian trade balance for February and the final Euro Area CPI reading for February. From the US we’ll also get the leading index for March. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Bullard and the ECB’s Rehn.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 2.6% to 2,859.50
• STOXX Europe 600 up 2.5% to 333.14
• MXAP up 1.8% to 144.79
• MXAPJ up 2% to 468.07
• Nikkei up 3.2% to 19,897.26
• Topix up 1.4% to 1,442.54
• Hang Seng Index up 1.6% to 24,380.00
• Shanghai Composite up 0.7% to 2,838.49
• Sensex up 1.8% to 31,166.28
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.3% to 5,487.54
• Kospi up 3.1% to 1,914.53
• German 10Y yield fell 0.2 bps to -0.476%
• Euro down 0.09% to $1.0830
• Italian 10Y yield fell 5.0 bps to 1.659%
• Spanish 10Y yield unchanged at 0.831%
• Brent futures down 0.3% to $27.73/bbl
• Gold spot down 1.3% to $1,695.70
• U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 100.13

Top Overnight News

• China’s gross domestic product shrank 6.8% from a year ago, the worst performance since at least 1992 when official releases of quarterly GDP started and missing the median forecast of a 6% drop
• Cantor Fitzgerald is shrinking its workforce, breaking with firms across Wall Street that vowed not to lay off employees during a pandemic that’s unleashed the worst unemployment crisis in decades
• The Italian government may set up a 70 billion-euro ($76 billion) package of spending measures in a decree due to be approved on Monday morning, Il Sole 24 Ore reported
• More than 15,000 U.K. companies fell into “significant distress” in the first three months of 2020 as the virus shutdown took its toll on the economy, according to a quarterly survey published on Friday by insolvency specialist Begbies Traynor
• The Trump administration issued a guideline to governors outlining steps for phased reopening. Some U.S. states and employers may be able to abandon most social distancing practices to curb the coronavirus outbreak within four weeks under guidelines.
• The U.S. Treasury Department is in talks with some airlines about accepting their loyalty programs as collateral against government loans to help them weather the virus crisis.

Asian equity markets notched firm gains after tracking the advances in US equity futures following the announcement of reopening guidelines for the US economy and amid hopes of a COVID-19 treatment after positive results for Gilead’s Remdesivir drug in closely observed clinical trials, despite the Co. downplaying the reports. In addition, Boeing shares took off after-hours as the Co. plans to resume commercial airline production in Washington state factories next week. ASX 200 (+1.3%) and Nikkei 225 (+3.2%) surged from the open with corporate updates contributing to the stock rally in Australia including Rio Tinto which posted higher quarterly iron ore output and shipments, while Tokyo sentiment benefitted from the government’s relief efforts including the JPY 100k cash handouts to all citizens, and the TAIEX (+2.1%) was also boosted with chipmakers inspired by strong earnings from global semiconductor giant TSMC. Hang Seng (+1.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.7%) conformed to the broad optimism following reports the PBoC will continue to the guide credit funds to support smaller firms through targeted RRR cuts and with the gains maintained regardless of the slew of mixed tier-1 data which showed Chinese GDP Y/Y at -6.8% vs. Exp. -6.5% Y/Y, although GDP Q/Q was at a slightly narrower than expected contraction. Furthermore, Industrial Production and Retail Sales added to the varied narrative although China’s stats bureau remained optimistic in which it suggested a visible improvement in major economic indicators last month and likelihood of a continued recovery. Finally, 10yr JGBs were pressured amid spillover selling from T-notes with prices dampened as stocks rallied from US reopening guidelines and hopes of progress for COVID-19 treatment.

Top Asian News

• Car Inc. Stock, Bonds Soar as Warburg Pincus Unit to Boost Stake
• China Stocks Advance as Traders Look Past Poor Economic Data
• Indian Central Bank Boosts Liquidity to Offset Virus Hit
• RBI Halts Bank Dividends, Injects Cash to Help Indian Borrowers

European equities hold onto a bulk of sentiment-driven gains (Euro Stoxx 50 +3.6%), albeit the region has waned off highs alongside US equity futures. The slight fade in risk appetite follows questions regarding whether reopening the US economy soon will revive an outbreak of COVID-19. Meanwhile, the second catalyst is attributed to Gilead’s treatment showing rapid recoveries among severe cases, but the Co. caveated stating the data does not satisfy safety and efficacy profiles. Traders may also be wary to open/hold onto risky positions heading into another weekend of uncertainty. Nonetheless, broad-based gains are seen across major European bourses as April option expiries provided the region with impetus, with CAC 40 (+3.8%) modestly outpacing peers amid post-earning gains from giants L’Oreal (+2.7%) and LVMH (+4.9%) – which together account for almost 14% of the French index and around 5% of the Euro Stoxx 50. Sectors are in the green across the board and lean towards a risk-on session – with cyclicals outperforming defensive. The breakdown sees Travel & Leisure outperforming whilst the underperformance in Healthcare seems to be more of a risk-driven move. In terms of individual movers, Airbus (+8.7%) shares soar amid reports Boeing (+8.1% pre-mkt) is to resume production at its Seattle factory as soon as Monday next week. Thus, engine makers also gain impetus, with Rolls Royce (+11.3%) and Safran (+8.8%) buoyed. Elsewhere, Rio Tinto’s (+3.3%) iron ore shipment update supports share prices, with peers Antofagasta (+2.9%), Glencore (+9.0%), BHP (+5.1%) and Fresnillo (+2.0%) all higher in tandem. On the flip side, Diasorin (-7%) shares reside at the foot of the Stoxx 600, potentially Gilead seemingly leads the race between the Cos regarding antibody testing.

Top European News

• ECB’s Weidmann Tells Governments to Spend Now But Save Later
• Europe Autos Jump as Market Optimism Outweighs March Sales Slide
• Airbus Chief Says Virus May Require Difficult Jobs Decision
• Rate Cut ‘Main Option’ for Bank of Russia Next Week: Nabiullina

In FX, the Dollar is back in demand despite renewed risk appetite for global equities if nothing else on the back of more moves to scale back COVID-19 restrictions and positive anti-virus treatment results. The index has bounced firmly from 99.689 lows to reclaim 100.000+ status and is only marginally shy of Thursday’s 100.300 high amidst almost blanket Greenback gains vs G10 peers.

• JPY/NZD/AUD – The Yen continues to resist the Buck’s advances and the bulk of safe-haven unwinding, with reports of Japanese offers into rebounds over 108.00 in Usd/Jpy capping the headline pair, while crosses remain bearish barring extreme bouts risk asset buying. On that note, the Kiwi has regained a degree of stability after yesterday’s RBNZ-related jolt to retest 0.6000 climes and reverse some underperformance against the Aussie, as the cross slips back below 1.0600 and Aud/Usd fades ahead of 0.6400 following mixed Chinese data overnight (GDP contraction not quite as bad as feared overall, retail sales weaker than forecast, but ip vice-versa).
• CAD/EUR/CHF/GBP – All making way for the latest broad Dollar upturn, as the Loonie retreats from just under 1.4000 to sub-1.4100 against the backdrop of waning oil prices and the Euro loses more momentum having failed to retain grip of the 1.0900 handle earlier this week. However, the single currency may derive some traction from option expiries again given hefty interest between 1.0835-50 (1.9 bn) and the 1.0800 strike (1.7 bn), in contrast to Usd/Cad that could see 1.9 bn at 1.4000 defended or protected. Meanwhile, the Franc is still caught in the crossfire in terms of weakness around 0.9700 vs the Greenback and strength relative to the Euro as Eur/Chf skirts 1.0500, but Sterling is softer across the board as Cable tops out above 1.2500 and Eur/Gbp rebounds through 0.8700. Note, the former continues to respect the 200 HMA at 1.2525 and latter is prone to almost daily or intraday periods of fix induced volatility. Ahead for the Pound, Moody’s UK ratings review poses downgrade risk to current standing and/or outlook.
• SCANDI/EM – Contrasting fortunes for the Sek and Nok, as the aforementioned downturn in crude scuppers the Norwegian Krona irrespective of independent Euro weakness, while the Rub takes note of Brent contagion from WTI and guidance from the CBR Governor to the effect that a rate cut is on the agenda for the April 24 policy meeting.

In commodities, WTI and Brent June futures remain choppy in early European trade, with the former’s June contract quoted given the shift in volume as its front-month expires in the coming days. Due to the colossal contango in the market, WTI May contract trades lower by some 9% (around USD 18/bbl), whilst the June future sees prices in the green on the day above USD 25.50/bbl at the time of writing. Market fundamentals remain unchanged thus far as participants await the OPEC+ pact to go into effect on May 1st, whilst on the lookout for commitments from outside the group. On that front, desks highlight that ConocoPhillips’ announcement regarding 200k BPD to its North American output highlights somewhat meaningful unmandated cuts outside OPEC+. Analysts at ING note “instead, market forces will do the job, with the low-price environment forcing producers to cut back.” Looking ahead to next week, the Texas Railroad Commission (RRC) is expected to revisit the issue on mandated state cuts. Supporters at the prior meeting on the 14th April argued about sever storage shortages and potential record numbers of bankruptcies amid market conditions. The effectiveness of the OPEC+ deal was also downplayed whilst they added that the RRC must do its part. Adversaries contended that the least profitable wells are already being shut and that RRC actions will not solve the crude crisis. WTI June resides towards the bottom end of the its intraday range, having waned off USD 26.78/bbl highs, whilst its Brent counterpart similarly declined from highs near USD 29/bbl. Elsewhere, spot gold remains on the backfoot and trades on either side of USD 1700/oz as DXY reclaims 100.000 to the upside, and with market contacts earlier reporting stops through 1705-1700/oz. The yellow metal thus far printed an intraday base at USD ~1687/oz, albeit remains in the green for the week having opened at USD ~1660/oz on Monday. Copper meanwhile withstands the strength in the Buck and moves in tandem with stocks following a shallower than expected contractions in Chinese QQ Q1 GDP and March Industrial Production, but prices remain capped by resistance at ~USD 2.3675/lb.

US Event Calendar

• 10am: Leading Index, est. -7.2%, prior 0.1%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Straight to China this morning where Q1 GDP has just come in at -6.8% yoy (consensus -6.0%). The previous weakest quarters (in data back to 1992 on Bloomberg) were the 6% seen over the last two quarters – so an historic moment for modern China. The rest of the activity data was a mixed bag. Industrial production was better than expected -1.1% yoy (vs. –6.2% expected) however both retail sales and fixed asset investment were much weaker than expected at -15.8% yoy (vs. -10.0% expected) and -16.1% ytd yoy (vs. -15.0% expected). So, industrial production got a lot better in March after a disastrous Jan-Feb, but fixed asset investment and retail sales is lagging. Elsewhere, the surveyed jobless rate printed at 5.9% vs. 6.2% last month. China’s National Bureau of Statistics said following the data that it is seeing good progress on work resumption; however added that the external situation is becoming more complicated.

Despite the weaker than expected GDP print the Shanghai Comp (+0.89%) and CSI (+1.23%) are both higher along with other major bourses including the Nikkei (+2.19%), Hang Seng (+2.31%), ASX (+1.87%) and Kospi (+2.96%). Instead, investors appear to be leaning on the encouraging news from the medical publication Stat, that a group of patients being treated in Chicago with a trial of Gilead’s drug Remdesivir were “seeing rapid recoveries in fever and respiratory symptoms”. The report added that most patients showed improvement and were discharged subsequently, with only two fatalities (read our Corona Daily for more on this).

Also helping sentiment this morning was the announcement from President Trump on new guidelines on easing restrictions and reopening the US. He announced that 29 states were in the “ballgame” to reopen soon, with a set of markers needed to be hit before state governors should open their states up. At this point many states are coordination with other states in their regions to coordinate reopening together. Dr. Birx, one of the top public-health experts on the White House coronavirus task force, reiterated that the state leaders will have a leeway based on their own judgement. The recommendations include that states show a “downward trajectory” in cases and flu-like illnesses for at least two weeks. Then they can begin a 3-phase process to reopen. States should then continue to show declining caseloads every two weeks before moving onto the next phase, while any significant “rebound” in numbers could mean needing to bring restrictions back. Schools, daycares and bars would not reopen before phase two, whereas restaurants, movie theaters and sports stadiums could open in phase one under certain restrictions. Regardless of the Presidents announcements, New York Governor Cuomo extended his state’s lockdown until May 15, with New Jersey following suit soon after. S&P 500 futures have gained +3.21% in response, also helped partly by double digit afterhours gains for Boeing following news that the company plans to restart manufacturing in the Seattle area next week.

While President Trump announced guidelines on easing restrictions, a number of other countries moved to extend them. In the UK, it was announced (unsurprisingly) that the lockdown would remain in place for another 3 weeks to early May. This is broadly in line with the timetables that other European nations have outlines in recent days. Meanwhile Japanese Prime Minister Abe extended the state of emergency across the entire country, having previously been just in 7 prefectures. And in Australia, Prime Minister Morrison said that there were no plans to change the baseline restrictions for the next four weeks. On the other end of the spectrum, Switzerland announced it will reopen some businesses and schools in three stages from April 27. For more on all things virus related see our Corona Crisis Daily for much more.

In markets, if yesterday had been a day in January of this year you would have said that it was very volatile as the S&P 500 saw 4 big swings around flat of at least 1.4%. We ended up closing at the top end of the range (+0.58%) as markets started to get excited as to what Trump was going to say after the bell about re-openings. Technology stocks outperformed, with the NASDAQ advancing +1.66%, meaning it’s now down “only” -13.09% from its closing peak back in February, out-pacing the S&P 500 which still stands -17.32% below its previous peak. Technology stocks have benefited from “stay-at-home” narratives and lower interest rates boosting growth multiples. Elsewhere in Europe the Stoxx 600 was -0.19%.

Over in fixed income, the move to safe assets saw both US Treasuries and bunds rally further yesterday. 10yr Treasury yields ended the session -0.5bps at 0.627%, just 8.6bps above their all-time closing low back in early March, while bund yields fell by -0.9bps. Southern European debt also managed to recover slightly yesterday, with the spread of 10yr yields on Italian (-4.2bps) and Spanish (-2.4bps) debt narrowing over bunds. However, those on Greek debt widened by a further +7.1bps.

On a related topic, President Macron yesterday expounded on the importance of a larger virus recovery fund and that without coming together in this crisis the EU will unravel, as Eurosceptism would rise in the countries not supported. France has been the largest country pushing the idea of joint debt issuance. In an FT interview posted as Europe was going home (well maybe commuting from the study to the kitchen) he remarked that, “we are at a moment of truth, which is to decide whether the European Union is a political project or just a market project. I think it’s a political project. . . We need financial transfers and solidarity, if only so that Europe holds on”. These comments come after European Commission President von der Leyen apologized to Italy while painting a picture of a Europe that was coming together, “too many were not there on time when Italy needed a helping hand at the very beginning,” she said. “For that, it is right that Europe as a whole offers a heartfelt apology.” ….The truth is that now Europe has become the true beating heart of solidarity. The true Europe is now standing up.” We will see if all this brings a more specific plan next week at the leaders’ summit.

In terms of data, the weekly initial jobless claims from the US has lost some of its shock value now but we still saw an astonishing reading at 5.245m in the week ending April 11. There’s obviously no sugar coating how bad this is, but markets did have the small consolation that this was the first time in a month that the reading wasn’t quite as bad as the consensus estimate (5.5m). Furthermore, this is the 2nd consecutive week that the reading has fallen, down from a peak of 6.867m. Nevertheless, if you add up the last 4 weeks’ readings, which are the highest in the history of the series, they sum to over 22m, something that is simply unprecedented. For context, the total number of nonfarm payrolls in the US in March stood at 151.8m, so we’re talking well over 10% of the entire US workforce in the space of a month having made jobless claims. Yesterday’s report also means that practically an entire decade of employment growth has been wiped out in a single month. The 10 years of jobs reports from March 2010 to February 2020 saw nonfarm payrolls rise by a cumulative 22.8m. The two series do not completely correspond with each other but I’m sure you see the big picture.

Further hard data for March showed that the pandemic’s impact extended into the housing market, with US housing starts falling to 1.216m (vs. 1.3m expected). The decline of -22.3% on the previous month is actually the biggest monthly decline since March 1984, and comes only 2 months after January’s reading, which saw the largest number of housing starts since December 2006. Meanwhile the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook survey for April fell to -56.6 (vs. -32.0 expected), which was its lowest level since July 1980.

Here in the UK, the government has refused to ask for an extension of the Brexit transition period. Downing Street added that they’d also refuse if Brussels asked them for an extension instead. The government spokesman said that it was “better to be clear now and minimise the uncertainty for businesses”. Under the Withdrawal Agreement reached with the EU, the UK government have until the end of June to decide whether to extend the standstill transition period past the end of the year, and while they’ve insisted throughout the process that they’d conclude negotiations by the end of this year, speculation has risen thanks to the coronavirus that they could be forced to delay. The next negotiating round is scheduled for next week, and a “high-level meeting” is also scheduled for June to take stock of progress so far. So something bubbling under the surface and something the EU could do without given all that’s going on with Italy.

To the day ahead now, and the data releases include new car registrations for March in the EU27, the Italian trade balance for February and the final Euro Area CPI reading for February. From the US we’ll also get the leading index for March. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Bullard and the ECB’s Rehn.

With lockdowns enforced across much of Europe in March, sheltering at home was on everyone’s agenda, and not purchasing a new vehicle (although one wouldn’t know it by looking at TSLA stock). The latest data from the European Auto Industry Association (ACEA) confirmed this after showing new car registrations plunged 51.8% YoY to 853,077 vehicles for the month, the biggest drop and the lowest number of sales on record. 

“With containment or lockdown measures taking hold in most markets from around the middle of the month, the vast majority of European dealerships were closed during the second half of March,” the ACEA said.

Sales across all major EU markets plunged, with Italy hit the hardest by the pandemic – reporting the most significant drop in new car registrations of 85.4%, followed by -72.2% in France, -69.3% in Spain, and -37.2% in Germany. 

FCA Group and Groupe PSA saw the largest drop in vehicle sales in the month, with registrations down 74.4% and 66.9%, respectively. 

• VW Group sales drop 43.6% y/y; ytd down 19.4%
• PSA Group sales drop 66.9% y/y; ytd down 34.3%
• Renault Group sales drop 63.7% y/y; ytd down 36.1%
• Ford sales drop 60.9% y/y; ytd down 37.4%
• FCA Group sales drop 74.4% y/y; ytd down 34.5%
• BMW Group sales drop 39.7% y/y; ytd down 16.7%
• Daimler sales drop 40.6% y/y; ytd down 22.9%
• Hyundai Group sales drop 41.8% y/y; ytd down 18.8%
• Toyota Group sales drop 36.2% y/y; ytd down 8.2%
• Nissan sales drop 51.5% y/y; ytd down 25.6%

The decline in car registrations started well before the virus outbreak. 

A decline in registrations will likely roll into April as much of the continent remains in lockdown following confirmed virus cases and deaths the highest in Spain, Italy, France, Germany, and the UK, these countries are the drivers of economic growth, and with a pandemic still underway, an economic recession, if not depression is unfolding, that will continue to impede new car sales through 1H20.  

Summary:

• Wuhan revises citywide coronavirus death toll 50% higher
• Beijing blames ‘overwhelmed’ health care system for the error
• Foreign Ministry says new numbers “can stand the test of history”
• Report on Chicago remdesivir trial stokes hopes for new “miracle drug” to fight the virus

*      *      *

Shortly after 11pmET Thursday night, a headline came trundling across the wire that caught our eye: Health authorities in Wuhan raised the official death toll from the city’s coronavirus outbreak by 50%, equivalent to 1,290 patients, to a still-too-low-to-be-believed 3,869.

An anonymous city official told China’s Xinhua that the new deaths and newly announced cases (officials confirmed another 325 non-fatal cases, raising the total number of “confirmed” cases to 50,333) were undercounted during the “early stages” of the outbreak, according to the Associated Press.

Echoing NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio’s reasoning for adding thousands of new deaths to the city death toll earlier this week, Chinese officials said the new cases include people who died at home, as well as those who died in a hospital without their deaths being officially added to the toll (during the first weeks after the Wuhan shutdown, Chinese officials refused to include patients who hadn’t officially tested positive in their case numbers, an issue that was supposed to have been fixed by one of the early revisions announced by the Chinese back in February).

The new figures were reportedly discovered after Chinese officials tried to reconcile numbers from their hospital database, with numbers from the city funeral service and its nucleic acid-testing.

The official Xinhua News Agency quoted an unidentified official with Wuhan’s epidemic and prevention and control headquarters as saying that during the early stages of the outbreak, “due to the insufficiency in admission and treatment capability, a few medical institutions failed to connect with the disease prevention and control system in time, while hospitals were overloaded and medics were overwhelmed with patients.

“As a result, belated, missed and mistaken reporting occurred,” the official was quoted as saying.

The new figures were compiled by comparing data from Wuhan’s epidemic prevention and control system, the city funeral service, the municipal hospital authority, and nucleic acid testing to “remove double-counted cases and fill in missed cases,” the official was quoted as saying.

Deaths occurring outside hospitals had not been registered previously and some medical institutions had confirmed cases but reported them late or not at all, the official said.

By adding these 1,290 patients to the rolls, China raised its national death toll to 4,632, from the 3,342 announced by the NHC earlier. After their release, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian insisted that these new numbers “can stand the test of history.”

Why would China even bother with this latest ‘revision’ – it’s at least the 4th time they’ve tweaked the numbers, and the first time in roughly 2 months – of the Wuhan numbers? Well, it just so happens that the official statistics agency also published the first reading of China’s Q1 GDP, which confirmed a massive contraction, as was expected.

Twitter’s Melissa Chen jokingly compared China’s ‘50%’ revision to when a student purposefully marks wrong answers on their homework to cover up the fact that they’ve been cheating.

When you realize that the teacher would be suspicious because you did too good of a job cheating on your homework, so you threw in some errors:https://t.co/tlHASEudVV

— Melissa Chen (@MsMelChen) April 17, 2020

But Wuhan is slightly larger than NYC population-wise, and the outbreak in Wuhan was even more vicious than the outbreak in NYC, which has reported more than 10k deaths. So imagine what that must mean for Wuhan, where the hospital system was completely overwhelmed during the early weeks of the outbreak, leaving some elderly patients to drop dead on the street (something that, as far as we know, hasn’t happened in the US).

The other big news overnight – and the reason why Dow futs are up nearly 800 points in the green Friday morning – has actually been percolating in investors’ minds since shortly after yesterday’s close of cash trading. In the early evening on Thursday, a report claiming ‘miraculous’ efficacy for Gilead’s remdesivir during a University of Chicago study, helped revive hopes that a “miracle drug” might be around the corner. The results were first reported last night by STAT News.

Here’s more from that STAT News report, which we also cited last night.

Remdesivir was one of the first medicines identified as having the potential to impact SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus that causes Covid-19, in lab tests. The entire world has been waiting for results from Gilead’s clinical trials, and positive results would likely lead to fast approvals by the Food and Drug Administration and other regulatory agencies. If safe and effective, it could become the first approved treatment against the disease.

The University of Chicago Medicine recruited 125 people with Covid-19 into Gilead’s two Phase 3 clinical trials. Of those people, 113 had severe disease. All the patients have been treated with daily infusions of remdesivir.

“The best news is that most of our patients have already been discharged, which is great. We’ve only had two patients perish,” said Kathleen Mullane, the University of Chicago infectious disease specialist overseeing the remdesivir studies for the hospital.

However, a statement from Gilead warned that the drug is still in the trial phase, and these results still need to be confirmed. And as we noted earlier this week, officials in China suspiciously shuttered 2 separate trials – one in Wuhan and one in Beijing – of the global remdesivir study, claiming there weren’t enough severely ill patients to run the trials, which sounds like a not-very-believable ruse to us.

Even Gilead, whose shares are up nearly 20% in premarket trade, warned that the U.Chicago trial is just one of many, and these numbers are simply “anecdotal”.

Finally, the number of confirmed cases surpassed 2.1 million during the early hours of Friday in the US, while the number of confirmed deaths neared 150k.

The International Monetary Fund revealed this week that half the world’s countries have requested emergency loans to weather the global coronavirus-fueled financial crisis.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told a meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors on Wednesday that over a hundred countries have approached the D.C.-based international organization for emergency bailouts.

Despite just ten countries so far receiving emergency funding, with many more expected to receive lifelines by end of this month, she said the IMF will use its “full toolbox and $1 trillion firepower” of lending.

The comments came after two days prior at the start of the week the IMF direly predicted in its semi-annual report a “Great Lockdown” recession set to be the steepest in nearly a century, forecasting global gross domestic product will shrink 3% this year.

Georgieva also told CNBC in a new interview, “This is an emergency like no other. It is not because of bad governors or mistakes.” She added, “For that reason, we are providing funding very quickly.”

And further, commenting in response to the fund’s reputation for imposing tough conditions on countries seeking emergency loans:

The IMF head said “everything is on the table in terms of measures we can take,” and encouraged central banks to “spend as much as you can.”

“But keep the receipts,” she added. “We don’t want accountability and transparency to take a back seat in this crisis.”

As confirmed global COVID-19 cases soared past 2.1 million on Thursday, Georgieva did add on an optimistic note that should the virus soon be contained and cases begin to recede in the coming months, “the global economy could expand by 5.8% in 2021,” according to CNBC.

“It’s the first time in the history of the IMF that epidemiologists are as important as macro economists for our projections,” the IMF chief said. “We are really hoping our scientists will not disappoint us.”

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

A CBC News report gives kids advice on how to shut down “conspiracy theories” voiced by their parents about coronavirus being created by China in a lab.

Because apparently that’s the media’s job now.

The presenter laments how somebody’s Dad may drop a message into chat blaming China for “manufacturing the coronavirus” with a “link to a site you’ve never heard of” (translation – a link that’s not, God forbid, mainstream media).

The piece then features a woman from a group that combats “misinformation online” who urges the son or daughter not to get confrontational with their Dad but to accuse him of being accurate and stirring fear.

Is uncle Bob spreading COVID-19 misinformation in the family group chat? This doesn’t have to be awkward. pic.twitter.com/SxX5HVqY9a

— CBC News: The National (@CBCTheNational) April 15, 2020

At one point in the piece, the reporter even suggests that conspiracy theories can be “just as dangerous as a virus.”

“Maybe send an article from a legitimate source quoting credible scientists on why the virus wasn’t manufactured,” states the host.

The suggested article unsurprisingly comes from the CBC and is entitled ‘No, the new coronavirus wasn’t created in a lab, scientists say.’

In reality, as Fox News sources confirmed last night, the coronavirus was indeed leaked from a laboratory in Wuhan, so to say it was “manufactured” isn’t even much of a stretch. The virus was literally created in a lab.

The irony of all this of course is that virtually nobody trusts the mainstream media, so when they attack conspiracy theories it just makes more people believe them.

When social media giants then get involved to censor information about the same conspiracy theories, that also bolsters the notion that they’re accurate because powerful interests are trying to stifle them.

Take the news report below as an example.

A reporter who adopts a stereotypical fake ‘news reporter’ accent which normal people don’t use when they talk to each other tells the viewer that the conspiracy theory linking 5G to coronavirus is false.

A doctor wearing a white lab coat inside what appears to be his own home (to stress faux authority) is then presented to call the conspiracy “completely false.”

The doctor doesn’t even explain why it’s false (he could have pointed out for example that Iran was impacted by coronavirus yet has no 5G network at all), but the news station just expects the viewer to believe him because he’s an authority figure in uniform.

In reality, as the comments below the video prove, the vast majority of people see the news report as desperate and hokey, making them believe the conspiracy theory to an even greater degree.

*  *  *

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Coronavirus shutdowns have completely disrupted food supply chains from restaurants to supermarkets to distributors to processors, all the way down to farmers. Why is this? Well, America is under government-enforced lockdowns to flatten the pandemic curve, is preventing consumers from eating at restaurants and bars, which has shifted how they source food products to supermarkets entirely. Basically, what happened is that farm products for commercial clients that have yet to be packaged for consumers are being dumped as the restaurant industry folds, which has forced the Trump administration to intervene. 

OpenTable data shows restaurant traffic has crashed through mid-April. At the same time, supermarket sales have surged.

We documented this seismic shift last week. Countless images poured onto Twitter detailing how farmers dumped tanker loads of milk down the drain as dairy demand via restaurants evaporated in the previous month.

We are dumping milk in South Florida because there is no home for it. We still have to feed and care for our cows, and our farmers are still milking cows, in hopes that we can sell that milk in the future… #stillfarming pic.twitter.com/tn4dpUBuUa

— Ben Butler (@BenLButler) April 3, 2020

Heartbreak of dumping whole milk as the supply chain struggles. Photo via a Facebook friend pic.twitter.com/Q9j1dmkIyV

— NYFarmer (@NYFarmer) April 2, 2020

The collapse of the restaurant industry has quickly rippled down the supply chain, and severely impacted farmers as stockpiles of milk and meat products continue to build, crushing spot prices. The Trump administration has recognized farmers are headed for a world of hurt once more, already reeling from trade war wounds.

Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue told Fox Business Wednesday that President Trump would like the USDA to start purchasing milk and meat products as part of a $15.5 billion rescue package for farmers.

“We want to purchase as much of this milk, or other protein products, hams and pork products, and move them into where they can be utilized in our food banks, or possibly even into international humanitarian aid,” Perdue said.

While we don’t believe future food purchases by the government will be transferred into “international humanitarian aid” programs, the likely end destination will be food banks that are experiencing the most significant demand surge ever as 17 million people have just filed for unemployment claims. The Trump administration understands that if food shortages appear at food banks, people will become hangry, and that is one trigger of where social unrest could be sparked. 

As part of the coronavirus relief bill, Congress has allocated $23.5 billion in aid for farmers. And of that, it appears around $15.5 billion could be used to purchase milk and meat products that will likely be sent to food banks to support the working poor. 

Authored by Kim Link-Wills, originally posted in FreightWaves

Not surprisingly the coronavirus pandemic delivered a heavy hit to U.S. port volumes in March. The unknown is how long the container drought will continue. Northwest Seaport Alliance (NWSA) Chief Executive Officer John Wolfe said during a press conference Wednesday he expects second-quarter volumes will be soft as the “unprecedented disruption” to the global supply chain continues and container shipping lines cancel more sailings.

“Total container volumes in March were down approximately 21% as compared to March of 2019,” Wolfe said. “That brings our year-to-date first-quarter decline to 15.4%.”

The NWSA, which operates the ports of Seattle and Tacoma, Washington, said it handled 264,133 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in March. Full imports in March declined 28.2%, while full exports decreased 8.6% year-over-year.

Wolfe said container shipping lines canceled 32 sailings during the first quarter, including 19 in March alone.

“As of today, we anticipate an additional 19 canceled sailings as we look out into quarter two. However, this is a very fluid situation and these numbers could change,” he said.

The NWSA handled 788,882 TEUs between Jan. 1 and March 31, a 15.4% decline from the same period last year. Full imports and exports declined 19.3% and 4.9%, respectively.

Wolfe said he expects second-quarter total volume also to be “soft.” 

“That’s driven by the situation in the United States with the closure of many businesses and the consumer market demand being down over last year as a result of the economy being shut down,” he said. “With the anticipation that we will slowly open up the economy in the second quarter of this year, which of course is uncertain, we expect the third and fourth quarters will be stronger quarters in terms of total volume. 

“So we’ll wait and see what happens in the second quarter. That is our best forecast: that the third and fourth quarter could be much stronger,” Wolfe continued. “We’re hopeful that 2021 will be a much more robust year for us in terms of total cargo volumes and job creation and economic activity through the gateway.”

Other U.S. West Coast ports

The Port of Los Angeles, North America’s busiest container port, reported a year-over-year March volume drop of 30.9%.

The port said it moved 449,568 TEUs in March. That’s the lowest amount of monthly cargo moved through the port since February 2009.

March imports decreased 25.9% to 220,255 TEUs compared to the previous year. Exports decreased 23.8% to 121,146 TEUs. Empty containers declined 44.5% to 108,168 TEUs.

The Port of Long Beach also continued to feel the economic effects of COVID-19 in March, with more canceled sailings and a decline in cargo containers shipped through the nation’s second-busiest seaport.

Terminal operators and dockworkers moved 517,663 TEUs last month, a 6.4% decline compared to March 2019. Imports were down 5% to 234,570 TEUs, while exports increased 10.7% to 145,442 TEUs. Empty containers shipped overseas dropped 21% to 137,652 TEUs.

The coronavirus was blamed for 19 canceled sailings to Long Beach during the opening quarter of 2020. That contributed to a 6.9% decline in cargo shipments compared to the first three months of 2019, port officials said.

The Port of Oakland reported Monday that global trade weakened by the coronavirus pandemic resulted in a year-over-year 10.3% container import decline in March.

The return of empty containers to Asia dropped 23%, the port said.

In other March year-over-year figures, the number of ships calling Oakland decreased 10.6%, loaded container volume at the port declined 7.4% and export container volume dipped 5%.

Gulf Coast

Port Houston, the largest container port on the U.S. Gulf Coast, said container activity began slowing in late March as expected due to the pandemic.

Port Houston in March handled a total of 248,280 TEUs, a drop of 11% compared to March 2019, when 280,721 TEUs were recorded. For January through March, however, the port handled 773,087 TEUs, compared to 694,167 TEUs for the same period last year. That is an increase of 11% for the first quarter.

The port said it had seven voided sailings in March.

East Coast ports

The Jacksonville, Florida, port saw a 21% drop in roll-on/roll-off (ro-ro) shipments year-over-year in March.

JAXPORT also reported an 8% drop in container volume in March year-over-year. Container volume for March was 14% below what had been budgeted for the month. 

“Despite a drop in these volumes in March, revenue held steady,” said Chelsea Kavanagh, JAXPORT public information officer. “We do anticipate seeing a sharper revenue impact in April, May and June. The extent of that impact is still to be determined. We are working closely with our ocean carriers and tenants to monitor the situation and prepare.”

Kavanagh told American Shipper that JAXPORT’s “diversification model played an important role in reducing the impact on our revenue last month. For example, a large U.S. military cargo move took place in March, which helped offset some of the drop in commercial cargo volumes. We also saw an increase in demand in our forest products business.”

Kavanagh also said to help northeast Florida companies better manage cash flow during the coronavirus crisis, JAXPORT is deferring the application fee for Foreign Trade Zone (FTZ) No. 64 applications received by July 31.

New FTZ customers can defer the one-time $2,500 application fee for 90 days from the application date.

An FTZ is a secured site within the United States but technically considered outside of U.S. Customs’ jurisdiction, allowing shippers to clear cargo as it leaves the FTZ while saving on import clearance costs.

The South Carolina Ports Authority said in a press release Tuesday that it remains positive about the long-term outlook, although March year-over-year volumes were down and the SCPA will not meet the fiscal year container plan.

Loaded imports totaled 76,019 TEUs, an 18.1% drop from the 92,875 TEUs recorded in March 2019. Loaded exports were down 6%, from 77,704 TEUs in March 2019 to 73,077 TEUs this year. Empties shipped were down 16.1% year-over-year, from 43,534 TEUs to 36,536 TEUs.

March operating earnings plummeted 41.8%, from $4.13 million in March 2019 to $2.41 million last month.

In its press release, the SCPA shared year-over-year fiscal year results for March, reporting that more than 1.82 million TEUs had moved across the Port of Charleston’s Wando Welch and North Charleston container terminals thus far in fiscal year 2020, from July through March, up 2% from the same period a year ago.

“Vehicle and breakbulk volumes were strong in March,” the SCPA said, citing the movement of 24,755 vehicles in March and 174,095 vehicles thus far in fiscal year 2020, up 27% from a year prior.

Year-over-year, the vehicle segment was up 34.3% from the 18,443 moved in March 2019.

In the breakbulk segment, the SCPA handled 73,342 pier tons in March for a total of 541,661 pier tons in the fiscal year to date. That’s up 23% year-over-year, the SCPA said. For March year-over-year, breakbulk was up 29.3% from the 56,733 pier tons handled in 2019.

The SCPA has revised its container outlook for fiscal year 2020, which runs from the beginning of July 2019 to the end of June 2020, to 1.345 million pier containers. Total 2019 fiscal year volume was 1.364 million pier containers.

“It has become increasingly clear since the end of Chinese New Year that the COVID-19 manufacturing shutdown in China and the subsequent significant shutdown of the consumer economies in the U.S. and the Western world means that we will not achieve our fiscal year 2020 volume plan,” SCPA President and CEO Jim Newsome said in a statement.

Newsome added that despite the current economic environment, he remained “very positive about the long-term outlook for both the Southeast port market and the South Carolina Ports Authority in view of a number of business development initiatives, which are ongoing.”

The SCPA had recorded its best February ever this year for both cargo volumes and rail moves at its inland ports. When reporting February volumes in early March, Newsome said the SCPA still anticipated “a rebound in May and June to finish the year above plan.”

The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PANYNJ) is still compiling March volume data, according to Amanda Kwan, senior public information officer.

Kwan did say the port authority recorded 13 blank sailings in March. The PANYNJ made international news in March first with the announcement that Executive Director Rick Cotton had tested positive for the coronavirus and then with the arrival of the hospital ship USNS Comfort in New York Harbor late in the month to provide relief to area hospitals overburdened with COVID-19 patients.

The Pentagon has blasted the Russian military for a dangerous incident Wednesday over the Mediterranean Sea which the US says nearly led to a midair collision. 

The near disaster began when a Russian fighter jet intercepted an American P-8A Poseidon reconnaissance aircraft, which is typically used for tracking submarines, at very close range. 

Notably as Stars and Stripes describes, the Russian jet was inverted at a high-speed close to the US plane: “a Russian SU-35 performed a high-speed, inverted maneuver 25 feet in front of the Navy plane, U.S. Naval Forces Europe-Africa said in a statement.”

In total the incident was said to last 42 minutes, causing strong turbulence aboard the P-8A the whole time, according to the Navy. The Russian jet effectively “buzzed” the US plane, similar to a prior June 2019 incident over the Mediterranean.

“Unsafe actions‎ increase the risk of miscalculation and potential for midair collisions,” US Naval Forces Europe-Africa said.

“The U.S. aircraft was operating consistent with international law and did not provoke this Russian activity,” the statement added.

Typically such close US-Russian aerial encounters occur over the Baltic and Black Sea regions, as well as in international airspace off Alaska, such as a recent incident involving US F-22s chasing off Russian maritime patrol planes 50 miles of the Alaskan coast.

* * *

Authored by Steven Guinness,

In my last article I referred to how since fears of Covid-19 in the UK took root in March, cash usage has fallen dramatically. Whilst the drop off has been substantial, the trend of cash payments being in decline is long established. Based on early evidence, the coronavirus pandemic has exacerbated this decline.

For context, in March 2019 an Access to Cash Review was published which detailed the precarious state of Britain’s cash network. The review, funded by Link (the UK’s biggest cash machine network) showed that over the past decade cash payments had fallen from 63% of all payments to 34%. To quote the report directly, ‘a straight-line trajectory of current
trends would see an end of cash use by 2026‘.

Twelve months on, the predicament with cash is now far more serious. Before getting into that, here is a summary of where we find ourselves in regards to cash in the midst of Covid-19.

In January the severity of the coronavirus spread in China became more apparent by the day. The first case of the virus was reported in the UK at the end of the month, weeks before cash usage began its descent. To give an idea of how the cash network infrastructure looked at the time, we can use Link’s monthly ATM Footprint Report as a guide. The most recent report shows that between January 2018 and February 2020, the number of free-to-use ATM’s had reduced from 54,500 to 45,000 – a 17% drop in just two years that equates to 9,500 ATM’s.

News coverage on the coronavirus began to ramp up into February. A development that received only moderate attention was the news that the People’s Bank of China had started to disinfect banknotes. According to Fan Yifei, the deputy governor of the PBOC, this was being done to ‘secure the public’s safety and health when using cash‘. It was around this time that the World Health Organisation first reported that Covid-19 can be transmitted via contaminated objects. As yet, they had not specifically referred to physical money. The PBOC’s decision to disinfect billions of Yuan in banknotes was the first connection made between the use of cash and the possible spread of the coronavirus, but without any direct evidence to support it.

It was in March when the fear gauge on cash spiked. The Daily Telegraph ran a story at the beginning of the month with the headline, ‘Dirty banknotes may be spreading the coronavirus, WHO suggests‘. Once again, the article contained no concrete evidence of contamination and instead relied on supposition. Asked if banknotes could spread Covid-19, an unnamed spokesperson at the World Health Organisation was quoted by The Telegraph as saying:

Yes it’s possible and it’s a good question. We know that money changes hands frequently and can pick up all sorts of bacteria and viruses and things like that. We would advise people to wash their hands after handling banknotes, and avoid touching their face. When possible it’s a good idea to use contactless payments.

Offering a more open position, an unnamed spokesman at the Bank of England was quoted as saying that whilst banknotes can transmit bacteria and virus, ‘the risk posed by handling a polymer note is no greater than touching any other common surface, such as handrails, doorknobs or credit cards.’

A few days later the Telegraph’s story was picked up by the Daily Mail, further cementing the perception that to use cash was potentially endangering your health. The use of handrails, doorknobs or credit cards were not afforded the same coverage.

But here is where things begin to get rather murky. As mainstream outlets were ratcheting up unsubstantiated fears over cash usage, Stephanie Brickman from the WHO offered a different perspective. Brickman was quoted by Euro News as saying:

We do not know [how long the virus lasts on banknotes], but we estimate not longer than two hours. The virus will not survive for very long on surfaces, particularly on a dry surface like a banknote.

Whilst the virus could possibly be contracted ‘by touching a surface or object‘, banknotes were not being considered, according to Brickman, as ‘a main source of infection’.

Euro News also quoted Sizun Jiang, a virology expert and postdoctoral research fellow at Stanford University. Jiang said:

Disinfecting and bringing new notes into circulation would benefit more physiologically than actually reduce the infection rates drastically. More importantly, there are countless other surfaces that we interact with frequently than conventional banknotes.

Three days after the Euro News article was published, Market Watch disclosed an email exchange with Fadela Chaib, a spokeswoman at the WHO. Chaib was categorical in saying that the WHO had never said that cash was transmitting Covid-19:

We were misrepresented. WHO did NOT say banknotes would transmit COVID-19, nor have we issued any warnings or statements about this. We were asked if we thought banknotes could transmit COVID-19 and we said you should wash your hands after handling money, especially if handling or eating food.

The website Full Fact, a UK independent fact checker, then revealed that following The Telegraph’s original article, the WHO had been in contact with them to clarify that their advice over cash handling was not to be considered as a warning against the use of banknotes.

A few days before the UK went into lockdown, the Bank of Canada issued a press release asking retailers in the country to continue accepting cash as payment:

Refusing cash could put an undue burden on people who depend on cash as a means of payment. The Bank strongly advocates that retailers continue to accept cash to ensure Canadians can have access to the goods and services they need.

The bank also reinforced the words of the Bank of England spokesman quoted by The Telegraph in regards to the risk of transmission:

The risks posed from handling Canadian bank notes are no greater than those posed by touching other common surfaces such as doorknobs, kitchen counters and handrails. Canadians handling cash should follow the public health guidelines on COVID-19 and wash their hands as they would do for other activities.

But as we are about to find out, interventions of this nature were too late. The seeds of doubt over cash had already been planted, and the fear surrounding it was now in the process of being exploited. An early example of this was CNBC quoting Peter Gordon, the executive vice president and head of emerging payments at U.S. Bank, as saying:

I think this is an opportunity for a move to digital. I believe this crisis will accelerate and move people to utilize all forms of digital financial services.

In the same article CNBC led with how the ‘perception of cash as a vehicle for coronavirus could change how consumers choose to pay in person‘. Already we can see how Covid-19 can and will be used as an excuse to try and move the world closer to an all digital financial system.

One small method for achieving this was announced in the UK just as the country went into lockdown. The limit for contactless payments was to be raised from £30 to £45, in what This is Money reported was ‘in an effort to help customers cut down on cash usage‘ in light of fears that cash could spread the virus.

Retailers now began to take it upon themselves to compel shoppers not to use cash. At my workplace tannoy announcements were being made several times an hour encouraging customers to pay by card. Other stores like Pets at Home have gone further and banned cash payments altogether.  Social distancing measures were extended to ATM machines restricting access to cash. Bank branches cut their opening hours or closed completely. The latest example of the animosity towards cash comes from the transport firm Stagecoach, who are now only accepting exact fares with drivers unable to give change.

The impact that fear based supposition has had on cash has been catastrophic. The latest statistics and trends report published by Link illustrates the scale of damage. Consider first of all that for the week ending 23rd February the ATM transaction volume in the UK came to 42.6 million. For the week ending 12th April, the volume had dropped to 20.5 million, a collapse of 50%.

To contextualise this, in the same period for 2019 the volume of transactions averaged 51.9 million. That average for 2020 has now declined to 34 million.

Here is a brief run down of other elements to the report:

• The value of transactions as of week ending 12th April came in at £960 million. Just a month before it was at £1.9 billion, a 49% fall.

• The overall transaction volume for March 2020 was 154.9 million, a 33% fall from the 231.8 registered in March 2019.

• Transaction value for March 2020 amounted to £7.45 billion, down from the £10.2 billion reported a year earlier – a 27% decline.

The report also offers some background detail on the ATM network itself. In regards to ATM numbers, the growth of new machines remained consistent from 1998 to 2015. In 2015 the total number of ATM’s in the UK was 70,588. Then came a sudden drop off. By 2019 numbers had fallen to 60,662.

Withdrawals from 2001 to 2018 were also consistent, remaining at all times in the 2 to 3 billion range.

As for ATM availability at bank branches, the figures for December 2019 show a decline of almost 300 machines since June 2019. Pay to use ATM’s have risen by nearly 2,000 in the same period. By comparison, free ATM’s independent of bank branches have declined by over 3,000 in six months. The total number of ATM’s has fallen from 61,961 to 60,291.

At the end of March the chief executive of Link, John Howells, addressed the drop off in cash demand in an article by This is Money. It reported that because of Covid-19, Link were now anticipating that cash transactions could drop to just 10% of all payments by August 2020. This is all the more sobering when you consider that cash use had previously not been expected to drop to 10% until 2025.

According to Howells, ‘cash use is not going to come back again and resume its slow decline‘. In other words, the collapse in cash levels will become ‘the new normal‘. The severity of the situation should now be obvious to everyone.

Natalie Ceeney, the chair of the Access to Cash review, had this to say:

We were already worried about leaving parts of the population behind and the virus has accelerated that. What we mustn’t do is sleepwalk into being cashless.

With far fewer people using ATM’s out of both fear and social distancing measures, the danger now is for ATM availability to be significantly reduced. If they are not being called upon as frequently, a proportion of machines will no longer be able to operate to a profit. An added danger is that machines which do not currently charge withdrawal fees will start to do so to remain profitable.

Regular readers will be aware of articles I have published on the efforts going on behind the scenes by central banks to reform their payment systems in conjunction with advancing plans for the future introduction of central bank digital currency. One institution that is helping to coordinate these moves is the Bank for International Settlements. It is of little surprise then that at the start of April they published a bulletin titled, ‘Covid-19, cash, and the future of payments‘.

Supporting the position of the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada on the use of cash, the paper reads:

Scientists note that the probability of transmission via banknotes is low when compared with other frequently-touched objects. To date, there are no known cases of Covid-19 transmission via banknotes or coins.

The fact that the virus survives best on non-porous materials, such as plastic or stainless steel, means that debit or credit card terminals or PIN pads could transmit the virus too.

None of this now makes a blind bit of difference as I mentioned earlier. As evidenced by the numbers, the widespread fear is that handling cash could give you the virus. Successfully breaking through that belief system during a pandemic is going to gain very little traction. One thing we cannot do is rely on the media and businesses to report the facts around cash use objectively. Sensationalising fear is largely why cash levels have collapsed.

What we need to be equally concerned about is how Covid-19 is going to be used to drive the cashless agenda forward. The BIS bulletin remarks that ‘current developments bring digital payments to the fore.’ It cites payment options requiring no physical contact, such as smartphones, as ‘potential solutions‘.

But here is the real kicker, quoted in verbatim:

In the context of the current crisis, CBDC would in particular have to be designed allowing for access options for the unbanked and (contact-free) technical interfaces suitable for the whole population. The pandemic may hence put calls for CBDCs into sharper focus, highlighting the value of having access to diverse means of payments, and the need for any means of payments to be resilient against a broad range of threats.

This is yet another example of using crisis as an opportunity, which I have argued in the past is pretty much the only way global planners can enact social change. Those who have not already been captured by the banking system are now the target. The population in the UK is estimated at around 67 million. Of those, nearly 1.5 million have no bank account. This could be for a variety of reasons – from being homeless, having no fixed abode, having mental health problems or from being a vulnerable adult living in a rural area which is isolated.

On a global scale, out of 7.5 billion people, 1.7 billion are unbanked. Approaching a quarter of the world’s population. Covid-19 looks to be the crisis that globalists will attempt to use as a vehicle to digitise the assets of every man, woman and child.

Without a dramatic swing back to cash in the near term, the rights of independence from the financial system and to trade anonymously with one another will be irreversibly lost.

The World Health Organization (WHO) published a statement Tuesday that read European governments should restrict the sales of alcohol to citizens as nationwide lockdowns continue. 

The statement read, “during the COVID-19 pandemic, alcohol consumption can exacerbate health vulnerability, risk-taking behaviors, mental health issues, and violence.” 

The WHO’s European office said, “Existing rules and regulations to protect health and reduce the harm caused by alcohol, such as restricting access, should be upheld and even reinforced during the COVID-19 pandemic and emergency situations.” 

It also said, “alcohol compromises the body’s immune system” and can lead to higher probabilities of contracting the deadly virus. During the pandemic, people should “minimize their alcohol consumption” to build up their immune system. There was also mention that Europeans are known for their “excessive” consumption of alcoholic beverages. 

While the WHO attempts to persuade European countries to enforce alcohol restrictions, the European Union (EU) published a note on Thursday morning detailing how mobile apps are being used to contain the spread of the virus. 

Last week, France admitted that it was working on a “StopCovid” app that would march the country, and even maybe the bloc, towards an Orwellian society. 

It appears the pandemic has been a perfect cover for governments to implement totalitarian measures to control and track their citizens, all in the name of “flattening the pandemic curve.” 

When it comes to banning alcohol sales, France already tried that last month, and because of public and internet uproar, the measure was quickly reversed. 

It was reported that Greenland had banned alcohol consumption in the capital Nuuk and nearby settlements in a bid to decrease incidences of child abuse as people stay inside to avoid spreading the virus. 

More recently, Thailand banned sales of alcoholic beverages in an attempt to curb irresponsible socializing. 

As for the US, alcohol sales surged 22% at supermarkets for the week ending March 28 compared with the same time last year, according to Nielsen data. Banning or limiting sales in the US would be hard, and if the WHO attempted to instruct the Trump administration on it, well, we believe it wouldn’t fly, considering Trump is now defunding the NGO. 

Nevertheless, angry Americans would riot if sales of alcohol would be limited or banned. Already, they are pissed about lockdowns, as protesters on Wednesday surrounded the state Capitol building in Lansing, Michigan, demanding the economy to be reopened. 

Is the WHO overreaching as it calls for the EU to ban or restrict alcohol? Or do they have some valid points?