Tag: finance

It’s been an  ugly week for cryptos…

Source: Bloomberg

Although Bitcoin is managing to hold just above $10,000…

Source: Bloomberg

Nevertheless, as CoinTelegraph’s Marie Huillet notes, Bitcoin investors are no longer as buoyant as they were three months ago, judging by the latest readings from the Crypto Fear and Greed Index (CFGI).

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph

On Aug. 14, the Bitcoin-only index — which plots investor sentiment on a scale of 1 to 100 (where 1 represents doom and foreboding and 100 indicates blithe optimism and greed) — hit its lowest levels since December 2018.

Today: “fear,” yesterday: “extreme fear”

Just under three months ago, in late June, Bitcoin (BTC) investors had seemingly hit a level of unbridled optimism, with the CFGI reporting readings of as high as 95.

As of press time, the index is reporting a level of 31, having plunged as low as 11 on Aug. 14.

These are levels not seen since December 2018, in the depths of crypto winter — when Bitcoin was trading not much higher than $3,000 a coin.

Historical CFGI data reveals that the tipping point from “greedy optimism” to anxiety occurred on July 10-12, when sentiment dropped from 84 to 33 in just 48 hours. This coincides with a sharp drop from nearly $13,000 to under $11,600 in that same time frame.

Over the course of the past 30 days, the highest value reported by the index has been 64 — representing a fleeting recovery in sentiment during several days in early August.

Crypto Fear and Greed Index, 3-month chart. Source: alternative.me

FUD or a buying opportunity?

The index’s creators note that a low reading often, in fact, represents a buying opportunity — whereas high-flying sentiment may be a sign that a market correction is due.

The index reportedly draws on five data points: volatility (25%), market momentum and volume (25%), social media (15%), surveys (15%) and Bitcoin (BTC) dominance (10%).

Noting that the CFGI has been “relatively accurate at pinpointing bottoms or nearabouts on the daily,” macroeconomist and trader Alex Kruger tweeted defiantly “Are you afraid? I am not,” adding that the next key level for Bitcoin is at $10,300-10,325.

As reported this month, a recent machine learning-based study of over 48,000 Reddit posts and 7,500 crypto/blockchain-related articles from different media platforms revealed that the overwhelming majority of Reddit posts (85%) were positive. 

Conversely, articles published by various mainstream media publications were, for the large part, dismissive of the crypto industry.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2Mm11mz Tyler Durden

In reaction to the deteriorating global economic outlook and rising risks to the world economy, central banks around the world have unleashed a coordinated dovish effort to boost growth. And while there is little evidence so far that CBs have successfully stimulated the real economy, their actions have contributed to supporting asset prices and suppressing volatility in most markets. As such, on the surface, markets do not yet seem particularly alarmed about the current situation, with our GFSI Market Risk indicator still in “less stressed than normal” territory.

However, by at least two measures, central banks are failing. The first one was highlighted by the University of Michigan sentiment, which reported this morning that the main takeaway for consumers from the first cut in interest rates in a decade “was to increase apprehensions about a possible recession.”

“Consumers concluded, following the Fed’s lead, that they may need to reduce spending in anticipation of a potential recession” the report noted as falling interest rates have long been associated with the start of recessions.

The second measure was more troubling. As Bank of America’s Benjamin Bowler showed in his weekly Global Equity Volatility report, when analyzed through the prism of the unprecedented recent flight to safety, investors have not been so worried about the future in the thirty years that Bank of America has data on (in other words, on record).

Specifically, as the chart below shows, the cumulative number of abnormal moves in traditional safe-haven assets – Treasuries, Gold and Yen -observed in 2019 has never been so high!

Now in a non-bizarro world, the combination of the S&P trading just 5% below all time highs, coupled with an unprecedented flight to safe assets may have prompted some questions. Luckily, in this particular bizarro world, nothing matters and with central banks having broken markets beyond recognition, nobody even cares.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2Z6d6OR Tyler Durden

“When it’s serious, you have to lie… or call the CEOs of the nation’s biggest banks.”

Amid the drop in US equity markets on Wednesday – culminating in a ‘Markets In Turmoil’ special on CNBC – President Trump appears to have hit the panic button and grabbed the big red Plunge Protection Team bat-phone.

As The Dow dropped 800 points, the 4th largest point drop in history, Bloomberg reports that Trump held a conference call with three of Wall Street’s top executives – JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Jamie Dimon, Bank of America Corp.’s Brian Moynihanand Citigroup Inc.’s Michael Corbat.

The three chief executives were in Washington for a previously scheduled meeting with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on banking secrecy and money laundering, according to people familiar with the matter. On a conference call, they briefed the president, who was at his resort in Bedminster, New Jersey.

So Trump panicked with stocks a mere 5% below all-time-highs? What happens when we enter a bear market?

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2KOVSjY Tyler Durden

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

Actor and comedian Terrence K. Williams says that the social media giant Facebook is coming after him in the wake of the popular hashtag Clinton Body Count. Facebook has been flagging his posts as “fake news” after his take on Jeffery Epstein’s death went viral thanks to US President Donald Trump.

In the aftermath of President Trump retweeting his post, Williams says he has been bombarded with death threats. He also accused Facebook of trying to police his opinion by telling his followers that his page and content are “fake news.” Williams said it is absurd to fact check comedy.

I am a comedian. How can you fact-check a joke? I have never in my life heard about someone fact-checking a joke. What happened to free speech? Please, President Donald Trump, do something about that free speech stuff.

According to a report by RT, Williams’s profile description on Facebook describes him as an actor, comedian, and Twitter commentator. Many of Williams’ subscribers have confirmed receiving notifications that some of the man’s posts they shared were “fake news.”

“I received’ a fact check claiming the post I shared was false. It was the video of Terrance questioning the Clinton involvement on Epstein,” a commenter wrote. “Yup, I shared one of your posts and also got the Fact Check: False News notification for FB as well. Didn’t know opinions could be fact-checked. Crazy,” another said.

I never experienced racism & hatred until I voted for Trump. I’m just an American Citizen supporting the President of the United States of America.

Im at 500k followers & that’s a threat to them since 2020 is close

Thanks for using the hashtag
👉 #ProtectTerrenceKWilliams https://t.co/vHrQgCdrit

— Terrence K. Williams (@w_terrence) August 13, 2019

Williams argued that Facebook’s crackdown on him is part of a broader anti-Trump and anti-conservative bias practiced by the major social media platforms. Big tech has been censoring information and Google has a list of websites that are blacklisted and will no longer show up in a search. (This website is blacklisted.)  This problem has been made vocal by many prominent Republicans, including Trump himself.

They are coming after conservatives and Trump supporters because 2020 is around the corner and they are trying to shut me down. – Terrence K. Williams

Things have gotten so bad that Williams is now fearful something could happen to him. He told his supporters that: “if anything happens to me, just know, somebody on the left did it, somebody who did not like Trump did it.”

This is not the first time Williams has been censored by Facebook either. The comedian was briefly suspended last year after he posted screenshots of threats he received.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2TCUx3y Tyler Durden

Iran’s PressTV reports the Grace 1 tanker, carrying 2 million barrels of Iranian oil, has begun departing after yesterday a Gibraltar court ruled to free it after having been held since it was boarded by UK Royal Marines on July 4. 

It’s also now freely moving into the Mediterranean despite a last minute US attempt to intervene in order to bring it into American custody. While the ship was previously Panamanian-flagged, it is now flying the Iranian flag and has been renamed the Adrian Darya. 

Crucially, authorities in Tehran have yet to name its destination in the Mediterranean, saying it’s free to offload oil anywhere it wants, including in Syria. 

One Middle East-based war correspondent known for his access to high level Iranian sources, Elijah Magnier, has indicated the tanker “will be navigating under the flag of Iran and will be heading tomorrow towards Syria.”

He added, “The Iranian flag has a direct message to anyone willing to stop it.”

Concerning the possibility that it could still defiantly sail toward Syria, Gibraltar’s Chief Minister Fabian Picardo told CNN on Friday “We only acted in July when we had evidence that the cargo aboard the vessel was going to Syria.”

“What we found aboard the vessel has confirmed the view that we took was the correct view. We have only released the vessel… when we have been convinced that the vessel is not now going to Syria,” he said.

Iran Foreign Ministry spokesman Seyed Abbas Mousavi was quoted in semi-official Tasnim news as saying, “Iran has made no commitment that the ship would not go to Syria because from the early hours of the tanker’s detention, we announced that Syria was not its destination and we have upheld the same … and reiterated that it was nobody’s business even if it was Syria.”

Meanwhile, it’s expected that Iran will release the detained Stena Impero in a tit-for-tat gesture, as Tehran had initially expressed a desire for. 

According to Elijah Magnier the IRGC will release the British-flagged tanker “before Saturday midday”.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2z4IJxG Tyler Durden

Authored by Benn Steil and Benjamin Della Rocca via The Council of Foreign Relations blog,

The “law of one price” holds that identical goods should trade for the same price in an efficient market. But how well does it actually hold internationally? The Economist magazine’s Big Mac Index uses the price of McDonald’s Big Macs around the world, expressed in a common currency (U.S. dollars), to measure the extent to which various currencies are over- or under-valued. The Big Mac is a global product, identical across borders, which makes it an interesting one for this purpose.

But the law of one price assumes there are no restrictions on, or costs involved in, the movement of goods, and Big Macs travel badly.

So in 2013 we created our own Mini Mac Index, which compares the price of iPad minis across countries. Minis are a global product that, unlike Big Macs, can move quickly and cheaply around the world. As explained in the video here, this helps equalize prices.

As shown in the graphic below, the Mini Mac Index suggests that the law of one price holds far better than does the Big Mac Index. The Big Mac shows the dollar overvalued against most currencies, by an average of 35 percent (a whopper). By contrast, the Mini Mac shows the dollar slightly undervalued—two percent on average (small fries).

The Mini Mac therefore offers no support for President Donald Trump’s viewthat the Fed or Treasury needs to push down the dollar broadly. But it does suggest that he’s right to be concerned about China’s currency.

To relieve pressure on its exporters from Trump’s tariffs, China has allowed its currency to slide since trade negotiations broke down this spring. According to the Mini Mac, the RMB has plunged from a four-percent overvaluation in January to an eight-percent undervaluation.

The largest discrepancy between the two indexes remains Russia’s currency. With oil prices having ticked up since January, the Mini Mac shows the ruble rising from a five-percent undervaluation to a ten percent overvaluation. Despite higher oil prices, however, the Big Mac still has it undervalued by 65 percent. That just shows why their index won’t cut the mustard.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/31EHUYs Tyler Durden

Following the recent dismal communication failures first by NY Fed president John Williams, and following that, Powell’s own notorious July 31 “mid-cycle adjustment” press conference, a recurring laments among the investment community has been for the Fed to just keep its mouth shut, instead of continuing to yap and confirming that it is absolutely clueless about the economy and the future.

In a surprising twist, the Fed may actually be listening.

According to the Spectator, chair Powell has banned any public appearances by any Fed Board member, noting that “appearances at conferences have been canceled, all scheduled interviews have been abandoned and any comments on or off the record are outlawed.”

This unprecedented action, the Spectator reports, is a reflection of two pressures.

• First, economic indicators increasingly suggest the US is heading into a recession with the Dow plunging 800 points on Wednesday.
• Second, relations with the White House have reached a new low, with president Trump pinning the success of his presidency upon a strong economy as a recession – Trump believes – would destroy his reputation and kill his reelection chances. As a result, Trump has – correctly – blamed the current woeful state of the global economy on the Fed. The problem is that Trump also “owned” the same state of both the economy and the market for the past two years, so any recession will be entirely his, just as Yellen (and Bernanke) intended, and shift attention away from the Fed.

Continuing a series of outbursts aimed at the Fed, Trump again lashed out at Powell (and the Fed) claiming they are responsible for the slide in the stock market. To be sure, Trump has been doing this for a long time, realizing he will need a foil if when the market and economy crash, and has – for better or worse – picked the Fed as the scapegoat.

‘Other countries say THANK YOU to clueless Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve,’ Trump wrote on Twitter Wednesday. ‘Germany, and many others, are playing the game! CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE! We should easily be reaping big Rewards & Gains, but the Fed is holding us back. We will Win!’

Meanwhile, a hapless Powell believes that the Fed, which cut interest rates by a quarter point at the end of last month, has very little left in its armory and that even a cut in interest rates would do nothing to combat growing international economic pressures. Powell has become increasingly concerned at Trump’s criticisms, which according to the Spectator show the president has little understanding of the economy or the Fed’s role. Of course, at the end of the day, what matters is what Trump believes, and according to the president, it may soon be time to stack the Fed with his personal, dovish appointees, the result of which are posts such as the one in which a Hedge Fund CIO asked : “When Will A Reporter Ask Powell If He Will Be The Last Fed Chairman.”

Which brings us to the unprecedented gag order, which the Spectator says is due to Powell’s determination not to do or allow to be said nothing that could further fuel the struggle between an independent Fed and a controlling president.

Unfortunately for Powell, that will likely change as soon as next week’s Jackson Hole meeting, especially if the Fed fails to commit to 100bps or more in rate cuts and/or launch QE.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2N7E0U4 Tyler Durden

Via The Conservative Treehouse,

Finally an economic analyst gets prime-time media pundits to listen as he describes the fundamental difference between the U.S. “Economy” (Main Street) and the U.S. “Markets” (Wall Street).  Charles Payne understands most of this, but El-Erian has it nailed.

Allianz Group chief economic advisor, Mohamed El-Erian, accurately describes what is happening in an era where deglobalization is taking place. The U.S. economy is strong; however, the multinationals on Wall Street -invested overseas- are exposed.  Thus there’s a disconnect and accompanying market volatility.

This is well worth watching because this is the first well-regarded financial pundit that is speaking truth to Wall Street in terms the panel pundits will understand/accept.

There is nothing that China and the EU can do to stop the de-globalization process; and efforts to stimulate their economy, more quantitative easing (pumping money) while the global supply chains are being shifted, are futile.

The more a nations’ economy is dependent on exports, the more exposure they have to the inherent downsides of de-globalization.   U.S. companies that are invested in these nations will lose their investment over time; some rapidly.  This will keep the stock market volatile, yet the Main Street USA economy is thriving.

President Trump has purposefully stalled the process of globalization, and is resetting global supply chains. This is bringing massive amounts of wealth back into the United States.

In essence Trump is engaged in a process of:

(a) repatriating wealth (trade policy);

(b) blocking exfiltration (main street policy);

(c) creating new and modern economic alliances based on reciprocity (bilateral deals); and

(d) dismantling the post WWII Marshall plan of global trade and one-way tariffs (de-globalization).

Watch full clip below:

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2N8UKub Tyler Durden

One week after the Spiegel floated a media trial balloon, attempting to spark a change in Germany’s approach toward deficit spending, reporting that the government was proposing a €500 MM debt deal to fund climate protection, news which was promptly denied by the government, Spiegel has done it again, reporting moments ago that Angela Merkel and Finance Minister Olaf Scholz are ready to run a budget deficit… if Europe’s largest economy goes into recession.

According to the report, the shortfall in tax revenue from economic slump could be offset by new debt, Spiegel – which desperately wants to get the government and public on the side of deficit spending – reports, citing the usual anonymous “sources” in the chancellery and the finance ministry. As a reminder, under the German constitution, net federal debt can increase by only 0.35% of output if there is GDP growth, but since the rules can be relaxed during recession, it is not clear how the Spiegel report is actually news.

None of this was a consideration to algos, which saw “Germany” and “deficit spending” in the same headline, and sent the Emini surging…

… and the 10Y bund yield spiking to session highs.

Again, as a reminder, last Thursday, the Spiegel reported that a senior government official stated that Germany considering issuance of new debt to finance climate plans, implying a revisit to its current balanced federal budget and the “black zero” principle, (i.e. the principle that avoids creating new debt for more climate protection measure), essentially a “debt brake.” That report was promptly denied by the government.

And now we await for the usual government channels to deny that the Spiegel report represents any change to current German fiscal policy.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2KAwWh2 Tyler Durden

Rep. Rashida Tlaib, who was barred from entering Israel on Thursday, says she won’t accept the country’s new offer to allow her to visit her grandmother in the West Bank on humanitarian grounds. 

“Silencing me & treating me like a criminal is not what she wants for me. It would kill a piece of me. I have decided that visiting my grandmother under these oppressive conditions stands against everything I believe in — fighting against racism, oppression & injustice,” Tlaib said Friday on Twitter. 

Silencing me & treating me like a criminal is not what she wants for me. It would kill a piece of me. I have decided that visiting my grandmother under these oppressive conditions stands against everything I believe in–fighting against racism, oppression & injustice. https://t.co/z5t5j3qk4H

— Rashida Tlaib (@RashidaTlaib) August 16, 2019

In another Friday statement, Tlaib said “In my attempt to visit Palestine, I’ve experienced the same racist treatment that many Palestinian-Americans endure when encountering the Israeli government.” 

Just In — Rep @RashidaTlaib: “I have therefore decided to not travel to Palestine and Israel at this time” pic.twitter.com/1TmT4sEAF6

— Alex Moe (@AlexNBCNews) August 16, 2019

Israel on Friday said that Tlaib could visit her family under the condition that she not restate her support for a boycott of Israel during the visit – a condition laid out by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. 

U.S. Ambassador to Israel David Friedman called the trip, supposed to start this weekend, “nothing more than an effort to fuel the BDS engine,” referencing the “boycott, divestment and sanctions” movement against Israel over the country’s treatment of Palestinians, who Omar and Tlaib have voiced support for. The decision to block the visit reversed a previous announcement in July, from Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Ron Dermer, that Israel would permit the women to enter out of respect for Congress. -Bloomberg

Tlaib rejected Netanyahu’s offer, saying that her family would not have wanted her to agree to Israel’s restrictive conditions and “bow down to their oppressive and racist policies.” 

“When I won, it gave the Palestinian people hope that someone will finally speak the truth about the inhumane conditions. I can’t allow the State of Israel to take away that light by humiliating me,” Tlaib said earlier Friday. 

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/33DlKYq Tyler Durden