Tag: news

Is China starting to panic?

Having seen their initial attempt at stabilization of the offshore yuan fail, it appears PBOC has resorted to direct influence, reportedly telling some banks on Monday that they should make efforts to prevent ‘herd behavior’ and momentum-chasing moves when trading the yuan.

After  raising FX forward reserve requirements late last week (sparking a brief vertical ramp in yuan), the selling pressure returned, apparently forcing PBOC’s hand to ‘intervene’ again by pressuring banks to avoid betting on further yuan weakness.

Bloomberg reports that, according to people familiar with the matter, PBOC official made the comments in a meeting on Monday morning with the 14 banks that provide quotations of the yuan’s daily reference rates to the central bank:

• The central bank was confident and has plenty of tools to stabilize the market.

• China will keep the yuan flexible and allow the currency to move both ways.

• Any pressures on the yuan will need to be released in a timely manner and China will not work against market forces.

• Cross-border capital flows are balanced overall, and China’s fundamentals will provide support for a stable yuan.

This move by the PBOC was followed by comments from Guan Tao, a former senior official at the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, who said that the yuan’s depreciation has been the result of market factors instead of deliberate government interventions, and there is no sign that the Chinese government is working on a currency war.

“The current weakening of the yuan is a reflection of a change in market sentiment following the change in economic fundamentals,” Guan told the Global Times on Monday.

“A short-selling sentiment is behind the relatively fast weakening rate in yuan depreciation,” Guan said.

Additionally, offshore yuan was supported overnight after China reported its foreign currency holdings increased last month despite a weakening currency and worsening outlook for exports growth. Reserves rose $5.82 billion to $3.118 trillion in July, the People’s Bank of China said Tuesday. That was higher than all estimates in Bloomberg’s survey of economists, where the median forecast was $3.107 trillion. $1.2 billion of the increase was due to valuation effects, according to Bloomberg Economics.

The shift seems to suggest no attempt by Chinese officials to intervene directly to support the Yuan’s freefall (positively spun as a sign that there is no capital flight… yet)…

“The PBOC so far has not directly intervened in the FX market by burning reserves,” said Zhou Hao, senior emerging market economist at Commerzbank AG in Singapore. “So far we have not seen significant capital outflow pressures, but if the yuan drops to 7 per dollar we’ll probably see a fresh round of pressure.”

So China has now intervened (with actions and words) and blame for the yuan weakness is being placed on short speculators – now where have we heard that message before? Next stop, capital controls?

via RSS https://ift.tt/2Oiukn7 Tyler Durden

One day after what appeared to be a coordinated attack by media giants Facebook, Apple, Spotify and Google on Alex Jones, whose various accounts were banned across the social networks in a matter of hours, the crackdown against dissent has continued as several Libertarian figures, including the Ron Paul Institute director, found their Twitter accounts suspended. 

Two more casualties of the Twitter purge of antiwar voices: @ScottHortonShow, the new editorial director of https://t.co/QNAmINHNCX, and @DanielLMcAdams, director of the Ron Paul Institute.

Are you next?

— Justin Raimondo (@JustinRaimondo) August 6, 2018

On Monday, Twitter suspended the editorial director of antiwar.com Scott Horton, former State Department employee Peter Van Buren, and Dan McAdams, the executive director of the Ron Paul Institute.

Scott Horton, Peter Van Buren, and Dan McAdams have been suspended from Twitter.
If you go to their accounts, you will see their old tweets, but they are prohibited from making new tweets. They were reported by @KatzOnEarth for criticizing his posts. Please complain to Twitter. pic.twitter.com/kaWAqasLKQ

— Antiwar.com (@Antiwarcom) August 6, 2018

Horton was reportedly disciplined for the use of “improper language” against journalist Jonathan M. Katz, he said in a brief statement, while McAdams was suspended for retweeting him, he said. Past tweets in both accounts were available to the public at the time of the writing, unlike the account of Van Buren, which was fully suspended.

According to TargetLiberty, Horton and McAdams fell victim of Twitter’s suspension algorithm after objecting to Katz’s quarrel with Van Buren over an earlier interview.

Hey @ThomasEWoods , @scotthortonshow can’t tweet out his interview of Peter Van Buren @wemeantwell from last week because Twitter suspended both of their accounts. Can you?https://t.co/zIYVZeOfPG

— Phil Brown (@philinexile) August 7, 2018

RIP @WeMeantWell pic.twitter.com/TwtO1QD17d

— 11811 (@kirchin) August 5, 2018

The suspensions come days after Twitter suspended black conservative Candace Owen from Twitter for highlighting the algorithmic hypocrisy of Twitter by replacing the word “white” with “Jewish” in a series of tweets modeled on those by New York Times editor Sarah Jeong.

just after controversial conservative Alex Jones, and his podcast InfoWars, were kicked out from most social media platforms, prompting conservative to accuse the social networks of collusion in a collective crackdown on non-mainstream voices. The Silicon Valley giants were criticized by the US political establishment for failing to prevent alleged Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election. Meanwhile, critics now say the pressured media giants are engaging in political censorship, using their market dominance and lack of legislated neutrality requirements to target descent voices ahead of the midterm elections.

* * *

In a scathing op-ed on Tuesday, Nigel Farage wrote that “while many on the libertarian right and within the conservative movement have their issues with Alex Jones and InfoWars, this week’s announcement by YouTube, Facebook, Apple, and Spotify represents a concerted effort of proscription and censorship that could just as soon see any of us confined to the dustbin of social media history.“

These platforms that claim to be “open” and in favor of “free speech” are now routinely targeting — whether by human intervention or not — the views and expressions of conservatives and anti-globalists.

This is why they no longer even fit the bill of “platforms.” They are publishers in the same way we regard news outlets as publishers. They may use more machine learning and automation, but their systems clearly take editorial positions. We need to hold them to account in the same way we do any other publisher.

Farage then accused social media giants of being corporatist:

That they cannot profess to be neutral, open platforms while being illiberal, dictatorial, and hiding behind the visage of a private corporation (which are more often than not in bed with governments around the world at the very highest levels).

This isn’t capitalism. It’s corporatism.

He concludes that the real interference in “US democracy” comes not from Russia, but from some of its most powerful corporations which now yield more power in some cases than the government itself: “This isn’t “liberal democracy” as they keep pretending. It’s autocracy.”

“…for those that don’t take issue with the latest censorship of right-wingers by big social media — unless we take a stand now, who knows where it could end.“

via RSS https://ift.tt/2AMIkU9 Tyler Durden

For the second consecutive day, after holdings it fire for months and stoically resisting a response to Trump’s relentless twitter assaults, China escalated its media war on Trump and one day after China’s top newspaper unleashed a coordinated attack on the US president, whom the state-run People’s Daily called “arrogant” and “deceitful”, and warned that China is “prepared to fight to the end”, on Tuesday the official China Daily described as “wishful thinking” Trump’s belief that a fall in Chinese stocks was a sign of his winning the trade war.

The China Daily was referring to Saturday tweets by Trump which claimed that “Tariffs are working far better than anyone ever anticipated. China market has dropped 27 percent in last 4 months…,” adding that the US market is “stronger than ever.”

China took offense as this indication of relative trade war strength, and said that the Chinese stock market was performing poorly long before the U.S. administration imposed tariffs, claiming that the downturn was partly due to Beijing’s attempts to cut corporate debt… although it did not explain why the market failed to rebound after Beijing resumed its re-leveraging campaign as well as promoted several other monetary and fiscal easing measures.

Chen Fengying, an expert at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, said such a correlation is flawed: “President Donald Trump thought the US had won. In fact, the trade war has just begun. It is too early to tell how the trade row will evolve and affect the US and the Chinese economies, thus it is too early for the US president to reach such a conclusion,” Chen told the Global Times.

“While the performance of the Chinese stock markets has indeed been affected by the heightened trade tensions between China and the US, it cannot be concluded that a Chinese stock market slump will cause China to lose the trade war with the US.”

The Chinese yuan has been affected, in part by the trade row and its uncertain consequences, the Economic Observer reported on Monday. But the report cited Sheng Songcheng, an official at the People’s Bank of China, the central bank, as saying the yuan will not depreciate further than $1 against 7 yuan, as this is a psychologically important benchmark.

Guan Tao, a former senior official at the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said that as of now, the yuan’s depreciation has been the result of market factors instead of deliberate government interventions, and there is no sign that the Chinese government is working on a currency war.

“The current weakening of the yuan is a reflection of a change in market sentiment following the change in economic fundamentals,” Guan told the Global Times on Monday. “A short-selling sentiment is behind the relatively fast weakening rate in yuan depreciation,” Guan said.

“There are varying views on the trade row’s impact, but personally, I believe a trade row impact will be limited to the Chinese economy. China is a major economic power, and for an economy with such a status the economic performance is determined more by internal factors than external factors,” said Guan, who is currently a senior research fellow at China Finance 40 Forum.

“Data will decide whose guess is correct. We cannot scare ourselves with some extreme stories as separate cases are by no means a reflection on the whole picture,” Guan said.

Meanwhile, lobbing its own claim for trade war superiority, the paper said Trump’s claim that “tariffs are working big time” was undermined by data showing the U.S. trade deficit climbed $3 billion to $46.3 billion in June, the first increase in four months.

The editorial in the official China Daily has underscored the increasingly aggressive stance adopted by Chinese state media against Trump, a shift from their previous approach of tempering any direct criticism against the U.S. president when one month ago, Beijing ordered China’s state media “not to use aggressive language” for Trump. Instead, China is now not only retaliating tit-for-tat to Trump’s trade war, but also responding to Trump’s tweeted offenses.

On Monday, the overseas edition of the Communist Party’s People’s Daily newspaper singled out Trump, saying he was starring in his own “street fighter-style deceitful drama of extortion and intimidation”.

As Reuters notes, Chinese state media has also been promoting the message that the country’s economy is strong enough to ride out the trade war.  In a separate People’s Daily commentary, a researcher at the Commerce Ministry reiterated this stance, saying China was strong and resilient enough to weather the trade dispute.

“We absolutely have reason to believe that during this complex trade friction, and relying on the domestic market, China can continue to enhance its leading position in the global economic and industrial system,” researcher Mei Xinyu wrote.

That said, even ignoring the market and focusing just on the economy, the cracks that are forming will provide further ammo to Trump’s claim that China is feeling the damage from the extended trade war.  Recent data has shown that Chinese growth has already started to cool. The government has responded by releasing more liquidity into the banking system, encouraging lending and promising a more “active” fiscal policy.

 

 

 

 

via RSS https://ift.tt/2KzXlbu Tyler Durden

Perhaps due to a lack of further trade war escalation, it is a sea of green in risk assets as overnight global stocks pushed toward a six-month high following the biggest jump in Chinese stocks in over two years and an upbeat start for Europe followed Wall Street’s best close since January, with the S&P now just 22 points points away from breaching its all time high of 2,873 reached on January 26, as the dollar slipped against most currencies, Treasuries dipped and the Turkish Lira resumed its record drop.

After dropping near 2018 lows at the close on Monday, on Tuesday China’s Shanghai Composite led Asian markets higher, soared in today’s session, posting its biggest gain in two years on hopes for more policy support for investment and extending gains in late afternoon trading as investors snapped up stocks amid speculation that liquidity would be added to markets after reported approval of some retirement fund products. Rumors that Beijing would approve retirement fund products to invest funds served as an immediate upside catalyst as it brought the prospect of new funds entering the market, said Zhongtai Securities. The sharply upbeat mood lifted overnight as Chinese stocks rebounded 2.7% following a four-day selloff that had knocked them down about 6% .

Chinese sentiment was also boosted by an unexpected increase in Chinese FX reserves, which increased from $3.112TN in June to $3.118TN in July, defying expectations of a modest drop to $3.1TN. The rise in reserves helped squash speculation that the recent plunge in the Yuan had resulted in capital outflow (whether or not the data is accurate or credible is a different matter entirely), and as a result the Yuan jumped, with the USDCNH sliding 300 pips from 6.865 to 6.835, further boosting Asia’s risk-on mood.

China’s FX Regulator says cross-border capital flows and FX reserve levels will remain stable overall adding that financial assets price fluctuations and changes in non-dollar currencies led to the rise in FX reserves in July, while noting that the fluctuation of the Yuan has increased significantly.

Asian optimism spilled over into European trade, where miners were among the big gainers in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index as commodities climbed. London, Paris and Frankfurt followed by rising 0.6 to 0.9% as Europe’s investors cheered results from Italy’s biggest bank UniCredit and oil firms gained on the rise in crude prices.

Meanwhile, in the US, the S&P 500 closed at its highest level since Jan. 29 overnight, less than 1 percent from its record high hit earlier that month. The VIX closed at its lowest since Jan. 26, the VIXtermination event of February 5 largely forgotten. A surge in U.S. corporate earnings, accompanied by a record number of companies beating estimates driven by tax cuts has prompted the likes of Citi to upgrade their end-2018 and 2019 earnings forecasts.

SocGen’s FX strategist Kit Juckes summarized the mood simply as follows: “The Chinese have stabilized the yuan, the lira hasn’t been annihilated this morning so once the sharp FX moves have calmed down and as long as the (company) earnings are good, you have a more risk friendly environment.”

And speaking of currency markets, the big story was the decline in the dollar as investors unwound longs amid thin volumes in the majors, typical of summer trading conditions according to Bloomberg. The euro bounced to $1.1593 from a near six-week low despite a second day of disappointing German economic data, while Britain’s pound made back some ground after Brexit worries had pushed it to an 11-month low.

Turkey’s lira initially recovered 1.7% from Monday’s losses of more than 5% after a report by CNN Turk that Turkish officials would go to Washington to discuss the strained relations helped the rise; however gains were quickly reversed and the Lira has since resumed its unprecedented collapse, approaching record low levels, and which many speculate will eventually end in capital controls. Already struggling with inflation at 14-year highs near 16% and political pressure from the president on the central bank not to raise interest rates, the lira’s year-to-date losses are nearing 30 percent as jitters about foreign currency debt payments rise.

“Currently the impact of the lira’s slide is mostly contained within the country. But fears of a default will begin to increase if the currency keeps depreciating,” said Kota Hirayama, senior emerging markets economist at SMBC Nikko Securities. “Such a development could affect some European financial institutions,” he added.

On the Brexit front, overnight news reports suggested that PM May is losing support due to her Chequers plan and some see her departure as essential to salvaging the Brexit. UK PM May has been blamed for the disorganised preparations for a no-deal Brexit as businesses need to be advised on how to get ready for the possibility. Civil servants have been ordered to compile 70 “technical notices” by month-end to explain to businesses how to prepare for no-deal scenario. Meanwhile, the UK is said to see Brexit deal deadline pushing back to November as UK PM May resists the EU’s timetable for Brexit talks while she believes US President Trump may help her

In rates, treasuries held steady with a slightly flatter curve. Euro-area bonds traded mixed. RBA boosted Aussie longs after projecting higher inflation levels in the next two years. Curiously, rates on German bunds were pinned near their lowest levels in almost two weeks as concerns about global trade and turbulence in Italy continued to support demand for the least risky assets; and yet none of these concerns have spilled over to other risk assets.

Overnight, the RBA kept its Cash Rate Target unchanged at record low 1.50% as expected and reiterated that it judged steady policy was consistent with growth and inflation targets, while it repeated that low rates are supporting the economy. RBA also stated that wage growth remains subdued which is likely to continue for a while and that it sees headline CPI to be lower than expected this year.

RBA Statement Changes pic.twitter.com/xxSyDipPat

— Anthony Barton (@AntBarton89) August 7, 2018

In commodities, oil extended the previous day’s rally after the imposition of U.S. sanctions against major crude exporter Iran took effect on Tuesday. Brent crude oil futures shook off earlier weakness and were 0.33 percent higher at $73.99 a barrel. They had gained 0.75 percent on Monday after OPEC sources said Saudi production had unexpectedly fallen in July. The drop in the dollar helped metals, with copper rising 0.5% at $6,161.50 a tonne after retreating more than 1% the previous day. Gold, which is stuck near a one-year low, crawled 0.2% higher to $1,208.06 an ounce

Looking at today’s calendar, data include consumer credit. US earnings to look out for today include Emerson Electric (06:30 EDT), PPL Corp (07:40 EDT) and Walt Disney (16:05 EDT)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 2,857.00
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.6% to 390.91
• MXAP up 0.8% to 166.36
• MXAPJ up 0.8% to 538.19
• Nikkei up 0.7% to 22,662.74
• Topix up 0.8% to 1,746.05
• Hang Seng Index up 1.5% to 28,248.88
• Shanghai Composite up 2.7% to 2,779.37
• Sensex up 0.07% to 37,719.71
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 6,253.94
• Kospi up 0.6% to 2,300.16
• German 10Y yield rose 1.3 bps to 0.402%
• Euro up 0.2% to $1.1578
• Italian 10Y yield fell 2.2 bps to 2.635%
• Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.3 bps to 1.395%
• Brent futures up 0.5% to $74.09/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,212.20
• U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 95.20

Asian equity markets traded mostly higher following the positive performance in their US counterparts where the Nasdaq led the advances and the S&P 500 notched a 3rd consecutive gain to move to within 22 points from all-time highs. Nikkei 225 (+0.6%) was higher as focus remained on earnings with SoftBank and Rakuten among the top gainers in the index after both reported solid profit growth, while ASX 200 (-0.3%) lagged its regional peers with the index dragged by weakness in telecoms and miners. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+1.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (+2.7%) were positive with property developers underpinned by strong guidance including Country Garden and Evergrande Real Estate, although price action was far from smooth with a bout of intraday volatility in Chinese bourses after the PBoC continued to withhold from liquidity operations and amid lingering trade uncertainty. Finally, 10yr JGBs were little changed with only minimal losses seen amid gains in stocks and as the Japanese 10yr yield remained above 0.11%, while participants the 10yr inflation-indexed bond auction also failed to spur demand as b/c and lowest accepted price declined from prior. China is to soon adopt policies to boost credit and investment, according to Chinese press reports.

Top Asian News

• BOJ Considered Raising Rates Before Tweaks, Reuters Says
• China Is Said to Push for Arbitrage Cap on London Stock Link
• China Stocks to Get Even Cheaper as Money Ball Favors Bonds
• China Foreign Exchange Reserves Rise Despite Weaker Yuan
• China Tower Giant IPO Leaves Hong Kong Retail Investors Cold

European equities trade firmly in the green (Eurostoxx 50 +0.8%), mimicking the performance seen on Wall St. and the AsiaPac session. Broad-based gains are seen across all sectors while the energy sector outperforms on oil price action. In terms of notable European earnings, Commerzbank (-2.0%) shares are lower post-results as the bank slightly adjusted their outlook due to “intense competition”, while Denmark’s Pandora (-16.5%) rests at the bottom of the Stoxx 600 following a guidance cut.

Top European News

• U.K. House Prices Rose to Record High in July, Halifax Says
• Salvini Slaps at Spain for Immigration That’s Run Out of Control
• Arsenal Owner Kroenke to Buy Usmanov’s Stake in Soccer Club
• Ex-Comedian Expects to Get Mandate to Form Slovenian Government

In FX, AUD was the clear G10 front-runner on several supportive factors, as Aud/Usd regains a firmer foothold above 0.7400 to print a marginal new August high (0.7437) having held in above chart support in the interim, and the Aud/Nzd cross trades above 1.1000  to expose 1.1025 resistance again. No lasting drag on the Aud from the latest RBA policy meeting and statement that was essentially a repeat of the previous version and several before that, with the ongoing mantra that rates are appropriate at current levels and are likely to remain apt for some time to come given the slow evolution of inflation and wage growth. CAD/EUR – The Loonie is next best major performer vs the Usd, albeit only just eclipsing the single currency and Kiwi as the Greenback loses some momentum across the board (DXY around 95.200 vs 95.500+ yesterday) EMs also off recent lows). Usd/Cad is back below 1.3000 and eyeing strong support at 1.2961 (100 DMA) before 1.2950, while Eur/Usd has bounced a bit further from Monday’s 1.1530 multi-week base towards 1.1600, but not quite testing the big figure, yet. EM – As noted, some respite for regional currencies after a dip in the Cny mid-point fixing and more efforts by Turkey to arrest the Lira’s slide alongside reports that mediation with the US has been successful to a degree. Usd/Try around 5.2400 vs 5.4250 at the new/latest all time low).

In commodities, WTI and Brent are showing mild gains as the futures hold onto the USD 69.00/bbl and USD 74.00/bbl handles respectively. US reimposed the first round of sanctions against Iran which will cover the auto sector, gold and key metals, while crude sanctions are not expected until November. Oil traders will be looking out for the latest API Inventory numbers released later today. In the metals complex, spot gold is prints fresh highs for the day, moving in-step with USD action, while London copper edged higher amid ongoing concerns revolving around Chile’s Escondida mine, the world’s largest copper mine. In the latest developments, BHP is said to seek a 5-day mediation by Chile’s government in contract discussions to avoid a strike at the copper mine, while there were also reports the union at the copper mine was preparing a strike contingency plan as it awaited the final response from the company. Of note: on Monday, Escondida copper workers union said half of members have voted in which around 80% voted to reject the final contract offer. Kuwait stopped operations at Shuwaikh and Shuaiba ports while also stopping navigation at the Doha port due to bad weather

Looking at the day ahead, in Europe we’ll get the June trade balance, current account balance and industrial production data for Germany (3.0% yoy expected) along with the June trade balance and current account balance data for France. House price data for the UK for July will also be out. In the US the June JOLTS job openings and consumer credit data are due out. China’s July foreign reserves data is also scheduled to be released at some stage. Walt Disney will also release earnings.

US Event Calendar

• 10am: JOLTS Job Openings, est. 6,625, prior 6,638
• 3pm: Consumer Credit, est. $15.0b, prior $24.6b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It hasn’t really been a 24 hours where there was much need to try to manipulate the weather as there wasn’t really a lot going on to encourage much activity. Having said that the S&P 500 (+0.35%) closed higher for the third day and is now at the highest level since Jan. 26th and only 22.5 points (or 0.8%) off the all-time highs. In fact it’s only closed higher on two days in history – both in January this year. Meanwhile the VIX returned to the lowest level since late Jan. at 11.27.  For the US market it’s almost as if the last 6 months hasn’t happened and we’ve been transported back to the hours just before everything changed after the rogue AHE print in the payroll report on February 2nd. As an aside the Stoxx 600 is down -1.23% from the day prior to that payroll print 6 months ago (S&P 500 +1.01%) and China’s Shanghai Comp. index is down -21.52% over the same period.

This morning in Asia, equities are nudging higher with the Nikkei (+0.61%), Kospi (+0.24%) and Hang Seng (+0.96%) all up while the Shanghai Comp. (+1.43%) is leading the gains. There has been some talk that the gap between the index’s earnings yields and 5y AAA rated corporate bond yields are the highest since March 2016. As for data, Japanese workers’ June real wages rose at the fastest pace in 21 years as it jumped +2.8% yoy (vs. 0.9% expected). Our Japanese economists noted there were large positive contributions from overtime pay and bonuses, but regular wages are also holding steady at relatively high levels of 1.3% while real wages are also rising. Meanwhile Reuters cited unnamed sources which noted that the BoJ had considered hiking rates twice this year before market volatility in Jan/Feb and weaker inflation data derailed the plan, which in part suggests that BoJ policy can be fluid and data dependent. Further the article noted the policy tweaks introduced in the July meeting was partly aimed at appeasing the two sides who were concerned about prolonged stimulus efforts and others who were opposed to a quick exit.

Elsewhere there has not been much tangible developments on trade, but Reuters noted that the official Chinese Daily newspaper wrote this morning that the US’s belief that a fall in Chinese equities was a sign of the US winning the trade war was in fact “wishful thinking”. Elsewhere yesterday the ECB’s Nowotny told the Der Standard that he supports a “faster” normalisation of monetary policy and added that “a slow increase” in rates would not harm the EU economy. Now turning to other market performance from yesterday. In Europe, equities were broadly weaker on light volumes with the Stoxx 600 (-0.13%) weighed down by materials and financials stocks, as the latter was impacted by a softer than expected results from HSBC (-1.01%). Across the region, the DAX (-0.14%) and CAC (-0.03%) dipped while the FTSE edged up +0.06%. Over in the US, the S&P reversed earlier declines to close +0.35% while the Nasdaq rose for the fifth straight day (+0.61%). The stronger overall performance was partly due to gains in energy stocks and Berkshire Hathaway’s above market results (+2.34%), while Facebook also climbed +4.45% following a WSJ report which suggested the company is seeking deeper relationships with banks as part of an overall effort to offer new services to its users.

Meanwhile core government bonds were firmer across the board with 10y yields on Bunds (-1.8bp), Gilts (-2.6bp) and OATs (-2.4bp) all down. Treasuries nudged -1bp lower to the lowest since July 20th while the 2s10s also flattened -1.3bp to 29.3bp. Following on with the yield curve theme, our US economists believes the spot yield curve is inadequate for identifying future recession risks.

They’ve used a principal component analysis (PCA) and show that the yield curve is currently signalling low recession odds over the next year, at around 10%. Overall, their analysis reinforces their view that a more complete signal from asset prices suggests that recession risks are low over the coming year, supporting a continuation of the Fed’s gradual rate hikes. However, recession risks do rise more appreciably two and three years ahead. Refer to their note for details.

Turning to currencies, the US dollar index firmed +0.21% while Sterling fell -0.44% to a fresh 11-month low, in part reflecting Trade Secretary Fox’s weekend forecast that there was a 60% chance of the UK not reaching a Brexit deal with the EU. Notably yesterday a spokesman for PM May (James Slack) reiterated that “we continue to believe that the most likely outcome is reaching a good deal (with the EU)…” Elsewhere the Turkish Lira dropped -4.89% to a fresh record low despite the central bank’s move to tweak reserve requirements lower and inject liquidity into the banking sector yesterday. This morning, the Lira is rebounding c1% but is still down around -39% versus the Dollar on a calendar YTD basis.

Over in commodities, WTI oil rose +0.76% following Bloomberg reports of Saudi Arabia production cuts and labour strikes resuming in the North sea, which have likely added to concerns of tightening oil supply.

Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the latest Fed’s quarterly Senior Loan Officer survey indicated that banks have kept lending standards on commercial real estate (CRE) and auto loans broadly unchanged while standards on commercial and industrial (C&I) loans and mortgages were eased. Notably a “moderate” share of banks tightened standards on credit card loans. In terms of lending demand, banks reported stronger demand for C&I loans by small firms, but total demand was weaker for CRE loans and mortgages.

Over in Germany, the June factory orders fell more than expected at -4% mom (vs. -0.5%) and were down -0.8% yoy (vs. 3.4% expected) – the first annual decline since July 2016. DB’s Stefan Schneider noted it was an across the board decline with foreign demand weaker than domestic demand. Notably more concerning was the 4.7% drop in capital goods, which he believes should be seen as evidence that the uncertainty related to the current tariffs dispute is hitting investment spending. Meanwhile the Euro area’s August Sentix investor confidence index rose 2.6pt from July to an above market print of 14.7 (vs. 13.4 expected).

Looking at the day ahead, in Europe we’ll get the June trade balance, current account balance and industrial production data for Germany (3.0% yoy expected) along with the June trade balance and current account balance data for France. House price data for the UK for July will also be out. In the US the June JOLTS job openings and consumer credit data are due out. China’s July foreign reserves data is also scheduled to be released at some stage. Walt Disney will also release earnings.

via RSS https://ift.tt/2vHbmPm Tyler Durden

At one minute after midnight, the first round of renewed U.S. sanctions on Iran took effect, and in one of his earliest tweets since the presidential campaign blasted out at 5:30am EDT, a sleepless Trump defined the official US position on countries that ignore US sanctions: “The Iran sanctions have officially been cast. These are the most biting sanctions ever imposed, and in November they ratchet up to yet another level” Trump tweeted. 

And in a warning to China, India, Turkey and many other nations which have said they will defy Trump’s Iran sanctions and continue to import Iran oil, Trump warned that “Anyone doing business with Iran will NOT be doing business with the United States.”

Then, pulling a page out of a John Lennon album, Trump blasted “I am asking for WORLD PEACE, nothing less!“

The Iran sanctions have officially been cast. These are the most biting sanctions ever imposed, and in November they ratchet up to yet another level. Anyone doing business with Iran will NOT be doing business with the United States. I am asking for WORLD PEACE, nothing less!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 7, 2018

As a reminder, on Tuesday, following an executive order signed by Trump, the U.S. imposed new restrictions intended to stop the purchase of dollar banknotes by Iran, prevent the government from trading gold and other precious metals and block the nation from selling or acquiring various industrial metals. The measures, which took effect at midnight in Washington, also targeted the auto industry and banned imports of Persian carpets and pistachios to the U.S.

There were some signs Trump’s aggressive policy was already working. Yesterday, Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani, under rising economic and political pressure, spurned President Donald Trump’s suggestion for talks with “no preconditions.” However, in a televised address on Monday night, Rouhani also said Iran is open to negotiations if the U.S. is “sincere,” but he added that such talks would be meaningless while his nation is being hit with sanctions. Trump and his top aides have raised the possibility of face-to-face discussions with Rouhani with “no preconditions.”

“Negotiations at the same time as sanctions, what meaning does that have?” Rouhani said. “It means someone is facing a person who’s a rival and enemy, if they use a knife and they stick the knife in their arm and then they say, ‘Let’s negotiate and let’s talk.’ The response to this is first all, they have to take the knife out and put the knife back in their pocket.”

Rouhani also scoffed that despite his offer for talks, Trump “is someone who, without any negotiation, has withdrawn from all of his international commitments,” from trade accords to the Paris climate agreement.

Iran’s Foreign Secretary Javad Zarif tweeted that the “Trump Administration wants the world to believe it’s concerned about the Iranian people. Yet the very first sanctions it reimposed have canceled licenses for sales of 200+ passenger jets under absurd pretexts, endangering ordinary Iranians. US hypocrisy knows no bounds.”

At the same time, Europe condemned Trump’s action saying it would block their effect for European companies. “We deeply regret the re-imposition of sanctions by the U.S., due to the latter’s withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA),” according to a statement Monday from the foreign ministers of the U.K., Germany, France and the European Union. “Preserving the nuclear deal with Iran is a matter of respecting international agreements and a matter of international security.”

Meanwhile, in an attempt to halt its sharp economic deterioration, Iran’s central bank scrapped most currency controls introduced this year on the eve of the U.S. move, in a bid to halt a plunge in the rial that has stirred protests against the government. As Bloomberg reports, under the measures, Iran’s central bank will let the market determine the rate of foreign-exchange transactions except the imports of essential goods and drugs, Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati told state television Sunday night. Licensed currency houses whose trading had been halted will be allowed to resume operations from Tuesday.

But the policies backfired, with the rial weakening from 40,000 at the start of the year, to more than 100,000 to the dollar on the black market this month.

That will come as good news to Trump, whose stated goal is to get the Iranian regime to stop meddling in countries from Syria to Yemen, halt its ballistic missile program and commit to stricter limits on its nuclear program, but the real intention, of course, is to overthrow the government, despite denials from the administration on the latter.

“We’re very hopeful that we can find a way to move forward, but it’s going to require enormous change on the part of the Iranian regime,” Secretary of State Michael Pompeo told reporters Sunday en route to Washington from Asia. “They’ve got to — well, they’ve got to behave like a normal country. That’s the ask. It’s pretty simple.”

Now the question turns to China – which has said repeatedly it will maintain trade ties with Iran – and how Trump will justify continuing to trade with Beijing under such conditions, and whether such defiance will prompt Trump to further escalate his trade war with the world’s second biggest economy.

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Authored by Peter Korzun via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

NATO believes that the Western Balkans is a region of strategic importance. The summit that was held July 11-12 specifically expressed support for the Euro-Atlantic aspirations of the Balkan countries. Macedonia was officially invited to join the alliance.

On the eve of the summit, Deputy Secretary General of NATO Rose Gottemoeller stressed that NATO supported the process of reform in Kosovo, including the creation of its own regular armed forces. That idea has strong support in Washington, although by establishing its own military, Kosovo would be in gross violation of the existing international agreements. UN Security Council Resolution 1244 states explicitly that no other military presence, with the exception of KFOR and the Serbian army, shall be permitted without the mandate of the UN Security Council. The Florence Agreement (Article IV of the 1996 Dayton Peace Accords) affirms that regional stability should be maintained with the assistance of the OSCE, not NATO. The creation of a Kosovo military would mean that a regular force was being established within the territory of Serbia, which is a party to the Florence agreement. 

NATO has already allowed Kosovo to set up a professional security force, which is to join the Partnership for Peace (PfP) program and then develop into a regular armed forces that is able to meet NATO standards. This idea is being floated at a time in which the concept of the creation of Greater Albania is gradually taking shape, which would include Kosovo, parts of Macedonia such as Tetovo, the Presevo Valley in Serbia, and parts of Montenegro such as Malesija.

The EU has also gone on the offensive. Croatia joined it in 2013. Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia are EU candidate states. Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo are signatories to Stabilization and Association Agreements with the bloc. In 2016, Bosnia and Herzegovina formally submitted an EU membership application.

Efforts to reduce the region’s energy “dependence” on Russia are underway, as an element of the policy of “squeezing Moscow out.” The Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) project is in the construction phase and will eventually stretch from the Caspian Sea to Albania and northward to other Western Balkan countries, as well as Italy. The next step is the building of a floating liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal on Krk, a Croatian island, thus making the countries of the region pay much more for American sea-transported energy than Russia’s natural gas that is supplied by pipeline. The Krk project is to include Slovenia, Hungary, Bosnia, and Serbia.

The NATO-EU Statement on the Implementation of the Joint Declaration envisages close cooperation between the two groups, which will increase Western influence in the region. That’s what Russia opposes. It rejects the wisdom of an approach in which the region is viewed as a battlefield between the West and Russia (which is supposedly vying for influence), forcing the nations of the region to take sides. The truth is, they don’t have to. For instance, Serbia can derive significant benefits by promoting complementary relationships with the EU and the Russian-led EAEU.

The Atlantic Council’s report, titled “Balkans Forward: A New US Strategy for the Region,” which was released in late 2017, attracted a lot of attention. It calls on the West to double down on countering Russia’s influence in the region, including by means of a permanent American military presence in the Balkans that would “anchor the United States’ ability to influence developments.” Camp Bondsteel in Kosovo, which was built on Serbian soil without consulting that country’s own government, is not enough. The Heritage Foundation echoes this view, offering guidelines to spur US diplomatic, economic, and military efforts to drive Russia out while bringing the US in. The think tanks from the National Committee on American Foreign Policy and the East-West Institute chimed in with their joint report, titled “Time for Action in the Western Balkans,” which was published in May.

The think tanks’ recommendations are followed by suggestions from governments. Here is the latest example. On Aug. 4, Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama announced that NATO plans to build its first air base in the Western Balkans near the municipality of Kucove in south-central Albania. Construction is to start this year. The new facility will be used for air supply, logistic support, air patrolling, and training. The base will also be used by the Albanian air forces. The US Army’s Bondsteel base in Kosovo is used by KFOR but it lacks an airstrip for planes.

On Aug. 2, Kosovo’s President Hashim Thaci said in an interview with VOA’s Albanian Service, “Kosovo’s border with Serbia needs to be redefined, or corrected.” Whatever he meant, no mention was made of any need for Serbia’s consent or United Nations-approved procedures. Mr. Thaci feels free to make such statements because he senses the West’s support behind him.

Meanwhile, tensions in northern Kosovo are rising after the Aug. 4 deadline to establish Serb-majority municipalities in Kosovo with limited autonomous powers was missed. The Kosovo provincial government has not kept its promises. Such a move is necessary in order meet the provisions of the EU-brokered 2013 Brussels Agreement, which is intended to normalize relations between Serbia and Kosovo.

The Kosovo Serbs say they would declare autonomy if Kosovo’s rulers’ fail to produce a draft statute of the Community of Serb Municipalities (ZSO). That agreement provides for the merger of the four Serb municipalities in the north (North Mitrovica, Zvecan, Zubin Potok and Leposavic), which are subject to Kosovo law. This urban district would have powers over economic development, education, healthcare, and town planning.

On Aug. 4, Kosovo PM Ramush Haradinaj warned Serbs in the northern section of the province that their potential “attempt to proclaim autonomy” would be met with a response, obviously meaning the use of force. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic vowed action to protect his compatriots residing in Kosovo. KFOR is in a state of combat readiness, because NATO has failed to prevent a conflict between Kosovo and Serbia.

KFOR entered Kosovo in 1999. The Albanian government of the Serbian province fully depends on the West. As recent events convincingly illustrate, after all these years, nothing has been done to solve the problems of the Serb minority or even to get closer to a solution. The ethnic divisions in Macedonia and Montenegro remain. Bosnia Herzegovina is still a divided country on the brink of armed conflict. The Western Balkans has not become a second Hong Kong or Singapore, even after some of the regional countries joined the EU. Neither the ethnic nor the religious divisions were successfully addressed after several Balkan nations joined NATO. If there is any outside security threat, it comes from the North Atlantic Alliance, which has proven its readiness to use force to reach its goals in the region. A NATO air force base in Albania will hardly make the life of ordinary people living in the Western Balkans better or more secure, but it will certainly bring the concept of Greater Albania closer to reality.

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In a shockingly frank and non-politically-correct report, Germany’s domestic intelligence chief has warned that children growing up in Islamist families in Germany may pose a risk to society.

As Germany’s Deutsche Welle reports, Hans-Georg Maassen – the head of the Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), Germany’s domestic intelligence service – said Monday that children from Islamist households in Germany represent a “not insignificant potential threat.”

In a new report cited by the Funke media group, the BfV said there were signs the “radicalization of minors and young adults” was becoming more likely and happening faster and earlier.

Maassen warned that what he described as the ongoing jihadist socialization of children was “alarming” and would pose a significant challenge to authorities in the coming years.

The BfV document estimated that some 300 children in Germany were affected. Children in some of these families are “educated from birth with an extremist world view that legitimizes violence against others and degrades those who aren’t part of their group,” the report said.  

The BfV findings have led to calls from politicians in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) to drop the age limit for surveillance candidates to under 14.

“This is not about criminalizing people under the age of 14, but about warding off significant threats to our country, like Islamic terrorism, which also targets children,” CDU politician Patrick Sensburg told the Funke media group.

The German civil rights organization Humanist Union (HU) told DW  it was unreasonable to consider children a threat to the democratic constitutional order because “their ideas and opinions aren’t yet fully developed and are subject to change.”

“Putting children under surveillance is therefore a massive violation of their fundamental rights,” HU board member Martin Kutscha said.

Herbert Reul, the CDU Interior Minister of the western state of North-Rhine Westphalia, said authorities needed appropriate “instruments to be able to deal with traumatized and violent returnees under the age of 14.”

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Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

The Target2 debate continues. Eurointelligence Promotes Still More Silliness.

I previously commented on Target2 in Eurointelligence Displays Stunning Ignorance Regarding Target2.

Eurointelligence blasts Faz for inaccuracies while spreading a pile of its own through the mouth of Mark Schieritz who says (translated) Do not be afraid of the trillions bomb.

Schieritz says: “The claims and the liabilities are fictional quantities. They exist virtually, in the balance sheets of central banks, not in the real world.”

One can stop there knowing full knowledge that Schieritz’s article is complete nonsense.

In the real world, Target2 imbalances are a measure of capital flight and loans that cannot be paid back. Even if there once was adequate capital for loans made by Italian banks, that capital vanished long ago.

Now, Italian depositors are very fearful of bail-ins and have pulled there money out of Italian banks.

That is the “real world”. Real people have real fears, and they should. Anyone holding money in Italian banks is a fool. I gave the same warning about Greece well ahead of capital controls. I make the same case again now, regarding Italy.

New Eurointelligence Nonsense

Here are a couple of new clips from Eurointelligence to discuss.

Against Target2 Hysteria

Martin Hellwig joins the debate on Frankfurter Allgemeine’s Sunday edition with a rejoinder to earlier columns by Hans Werner Sinn (which we covered) and Thomas Mayer (which we didn’t) on the danger to the Bundesbank from its near-trillion-euro claims on the eurosystem, and on the danger to the eurosystem from its near-half-trillion claims on the Bank of Italy. Hellwig argues that Sinn confuses deliberately with the smoke and mirrors of double-entry book-keeping, and is whipping up an unjustified panic over Target2.

What would happen to the Target2 claims if Italy were to default on its payments? Nothing, says Hellwig. If the Italian state defaulted, it would affect Italian bonds but not liabilities between central banks or the payment traffic in the monetary union. The eurosystem would be affected mostly through the effect the defaulted bonds would have on the balance of the Bank of Italy. But the intra-eurosystem claims would not be affected. And the Bundesbank has contributed to causing the widening of the Target2 balances since 2015 by insisting that most of each country’s bonds are bought by the respective central bank.

Nothing Would Happen?

That is ridiculous. The ECB would likely paper over the losses and that is against the treaty. The Euro would take a big hit. Third, everyone would be wondering what country would be next.

Norbert Häring, for Handelsblatt, asks When is a Trillion Euro Not a Trillion Euro?

Germany’s surplus with the European Central Bank hit a new record in April. Germany is currently owed around €950 billion ($1.12 trillion) under the ECB’s Target2 clearing system, which balances out cross-border financial movements within the euro zone.

Hans-Werner Sinn, the former head of Ifo Institute for Economic Research, a leading economic think tank, told Handelsblatt the figure was basically worthless — an “unsecured credit against the euro system, which cannot be called in and which debtor countries pay no interest on.” A private company would simply write off the amount, he added.

No one quite knows would happen to the Target2 system in the event of a high-deficit country leaving the euro system. Last year, ECB president Mario Draghi told the European parliament that any deficits would have to be repaid. But it appears that countries have no binding legal obligation to do so; it is simply “guidance” from the ECB.

If Italy were to withdraw from the euro zone, its banks’ assets and liabilities would be redenominated in its new currency, which would probably see a steep fall in value. The question then would not only be whether Italy should pay its Target2 deficit, but how it possibly could. The Bank of Italy would almost certainly default on a bill for half a trillion euros.

Eurointelligence Counters

Häring starts with the question of how much the German Target2 claims are actually worth. One argument – which he attributes to Hans Werner Sinn and Karl Whelan – is that because Target2 claims are uncallable and pay no interest they are actually worthless.

Häring sees three ways in which Germany could reduce its Target2 surplus. First, the Bundesbank could buy a trillion euros’ worth of real or financial assets in other eurozone member states. Not only is that kind of investment spree by a central bank unusual, but the Bundesbank insisted on not sharing the purchases of other member states’ debt as part of the ECB’s QE programme. But the point stands. If Germany were to constitute a dedicated sovereign wealth fund to invest only in non-German eurozone assets, it could eliminate its Target2 balance. The Swiss central bank for example has engaged in such massive purchases of foreign assets in the past.

The second way is for the German government to engage in a trillion-euro public investment drive to modernise and repair Germany’s infrastructure. For this to reduce Germany’s Target2 surplus the country would have to resort largely to expertise, labour and materials from other eurozone countries.

The third way to reduce the German Target2 balance is for German wages and prices to increase significantly. This would allow and encourage German consumers to buy goods and services elsewhere in the eurozone. But export competitiveness and wage suppression have been central to the German economic model since the time of Gerhard Schröder.

Only if Germany fails to adopt some combination of these strategies and the eurozone ultimately breaks apart would Germany realise a loss on its Target2 claims.

Key to the Debate

That last paragraph above is key to the debate. Yes, Germany could go on a buying spree, up and until the point of default. Say Italy defaults, what then?

Meanwhile the balances keep rising and rising.

Twilight of the Euro

Hans Werner Sinn discusses Target2 in Are we seeing the twilight of the euro?

In May 1998, irrevocable conversion rates for the currencies that would be merged into the euro were implemented. In a sense, this makes the single currency just over 20 years old. The first decade of its life had the feeling of a party, particularly in Southern Europe; but the second decade brought the inevitable hangover. Now, as we enter the third decade, the prevailing mood seems to be one of increasing political radicalization.

The original party was a cornucopia of cheap credit, which capital markets happily issued to the countries of Southern Europe under the protection of the euro. For a while, these countries finally had enough money to increase public-sector salaries and pensions, as well as spur private consumption and investment.

But the credit flooding into these countries created inflationary bubbles, which burst when the 2008 financial crisis in the United States spread to Europe. As capital markets refused to extend further credit, Southern Europe’s previously halfway-competitive but now overpriced economies soon ran into serious trouble.

By mid-2018, the net amount of payment orders to Germany through the Target system had risen to €976 billion. As a perpetual overdraft drawn from the Bundesbank, this money was not unlike the International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Rights, except that there is much more of it — a sum greater than all of the funds IMF countries are willing to loan to one another. Spain and Italy alone drew down about €400 and €500 billion, respectively.

Despite — or because of — this windfall, Southern European countries’ manufacturing sectors are still a long way from regaining competitiveness. In Portugal, for example, the output of the manufacturing sector is still 14 percent below what it was in the third quarter of 2007, after the first breakdown of the European interbank market. And for Italy, Greece, and Spain, that figure is 17, 19, and 21 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, youth unemployment is above 20 percent in Portugal, more than 30 percent in Spain and Italy, and almost 45 percent in Greece.

Now that we are entering the euro’s third decade, it is worth noting that Portugal, Spain, and Greece are all governed by radical socialists who have abandoned the concept of fiscal responsibility, which they call “austerity policy.” Worse still, Italy’s establishment parties have all been swept away. The country’s new populist government – comprising the Five Star Movement and Lega Nord – intends to increase the country’s debt substantially to pay for its proposed tax cuts and guaranteed-income scheme; and it might threaten to abandon the euro altogether if the EU refuses to play along.

In view of these facts, even the most committed euro enthusiast cannot honestly say that the single currency has been a success. Europe has quite plainly overextended itself. Unfortunately, the great sociologist Ralf Dahrendorf was right to conclude that, “The currency union is a grave error, a quixotic, reckless, and misguided goal, that will not unite but break up Europe.”

Acting man

Acting Man referred to me and he gets the last word in TARGET-2 Revisited

Acting Man discusses Capital Flight vs. The Effect of QE. He also noted the growing Target2 liability of the ECB itself.

The ECB is a supranational entity and in terms of the payment system it is treated as if it were a country of its own. Most of the debt purchases under the QE program are conducted by NCBs – in particular, every NCB is tasked with buying sovereign bonds issued by its own country of domicile.

However, the ECB is also engaged in direct bond purchases, and these create TARGET-2 liabilities as they necessarily involve the flow of central bank money from the ECB to various NCBs in whose jurisdictions it buys bonds. If the NCBs concerned have a positive TARGET balance, total TARGET balances will increase*.

As Draghi notes in his press conferences, roughly 40% to 50% of the purchases under the APP are from non-resident institutions (which may in turn act on behalf of their customers). Most of the trading with such institutions takes place in the largest financial centers in Europe, with Frankfurt in Germany a particularly active one.

One could also say: as long as the APP is underway, it is actually difficult to tell to what extent a rising TARGET-2 balance is driven by QE or by capital flight. For instance, it inter alia seems likely that recent political upheaval in Italy has given fresh impetus to capital flight from there. In fact, the political situation in Italy was fraught with uncertainty ever since the resignation of the Renzi government, and the growth of Italy’s TARGET-2 liabilities has accelerated since then.

However, there is another important point which Mr. Draghi neglects to mention when he insists that growing TARGET-2 imbalances are merely an APP-related technicality.

It is certainly true that when the Bank of Italy purchases Italian government bonds in Frankfurt from international banks which access TARGET-2 through the BuBa, the above mentioned effects on claims and liabilities in the payment system will arise – but why do they just continue to grow?

Why are the sellers of these bonds not using the proceeds to purchase other investment assets in Italy? Or putting it differently: What does this represent, if not capital flight?

It seems to us it doesn’t really matter that the purchases are conducted under the APP – if no offsetting capital flows into Italy take place subsequently, it still means that someone got out of Dodge and decided not to return.

Bottom Line

Claims that none of this matters and that there would be no consequences if Italy left the Eurozone and defaulted are as ridiculous as ever.

The harder people attempt to come up with reasons that none of this matters, the sillier they look.

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