The Philly Soda Tax May Be Legal, But It’s Still Bad Policy

The Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled this week that Philadelphia’s 1.5-cent-per-ounce tax on soda and other sugary beverages does not conflict with state law.

A group of city merchants and representatives of the beverage industry had challenged the so-called soda tax on the grounds that it amounts to double taxation, since consumers are already charged a state sales tax on sweetened drinks. Under Pennsylvania law, localities are not allowed to tax anything already taxed by the state. The state Supreme Court rejected that claim in a 4-2 ruling, concluding that the soda tax is applied at the wholesale level and therefore does not conflict with the state sales tax, which is charged at the final point of sale.

“The payer of the beverage tax is the distributor, or in certain circumstances, dealers, but never the purchasing consumer,” Chief Justice Thomas Saylor wrote for the majority.

That logic might hold up in the realm of law, but real-world economics show that consumers are paying both the sales tax and the soda tax, which is passed down the supply chain. The tax adds about $1 to a two-liter bottle of soda, and more than $2 to a six-pack of cans.

Consumers are responding to those new incentives by travelling outside Philadelphia to do their shopping. A report by Catalina, a market research firm, found that soda sales inside city limits have fallen by 55 percent since January 1, when the tax took effect; while sales outside the city have grown by 38 percent. That means the tax is costing not only consumers, but city businesses who have lost customers because of it—a completely predictable outcome.

And it’s not just soda sales being hit. The tax also applies to fruit juices and sports drinks.

“This duplicative tax has shown to be a financial burden for both consumers, who the tax is getting passed onto, and employers,” says Gene Barr, president of the Pennsylvania Chamber. “Taxes that single out particular industries drive customers to other areas to purchase these goods, which can lead to business closures and a loss of revenue that is difficult to overcome.”

According to Ax The Bev Tax, a coalition of city businesses, the tax has cost 1,200 jobs across various industries.

About the only people happy with the Supreme Court ruling are, predictably, the city officials who sold the tax as a way to generate $90 million for schools and pre-K programs. Mayor Jim Kenney, in a statement, said the ruling “offers renewed hope for tens of thousands of Philadelphia children and families who struggle for better lives in the face of rampant poverty.”

But the city’s plans for the soda tax money have already had to be pared back once, because the tax generated about 15 percent less revenue than expected in 2017. And as Baylen Linnekin noted last year, “spending tens of millions of dollars to expand pre-K in a city where even the most optimistic reports show city schools already fail to educate children and are routinely broke may not be the best idea.”

This week’s ruling is a reminder that legality is not the only measure of good policy. The soda tax should be reconsidered by city officials or blocked by the state legislature, which has the authority to overrule local taxes.

State lawmakers, include some Philadelphia Democrats, have opposed the tax. State Sen. Anthony Williams (D-Philadelphia) authored an amicus brief for the state Supreme Court, urging them to rule against the city.

“I don’t like a regressive tax. I don’t like it billed as it is, which is helping the poor,” Williams tells Billy Penn, a Philadelphia-based alt-news website. “No, you’re taxing the poor to help themselves.”

State Sen. Scott Wagner (R-York), this year’s Republican gubernatorial nominee, took a shot at the soda levies during a campaign event this week, calling for a state to cap the tax.

The Pennsylvania Chamber is urging state lawmakers to pass House Bill 2241, which would prohibit municipalities in Pennsylvania from imposing soda taxes.

Whether lawmakers will do anything about the tax remains to be seen. Although Pennsylvania’s legislature is technically a year-round body, the fall session in an election year is not very active, historically.

from Hit & Run https://ift.tt/2uRAsKK
via IFTTT

Global Bonds Stumble, Yield Curve Steepens After Trump, BoJ

Following Trump comments on The Fed, rates, and currency manipulation and headlines about The BoJ shifting its policy, global bond markets hiccupped to the downside and yield curves steepened aggressively.

JGBs led the plunge…but Bunds and USTs followed.

 

US Treasury yields are spiking (especially the long-end)…

Steepening the yield curve aggressively. This is the biggest single-day steepening in the 2s30s curve since early February’s crash.

Treasury yields and stocks are catching up to each other…

All of which is interesting given that bond speculators are already at record shorts…

via RSS https://ift.tt/2LzzmdT Tyler Durden

Ecuador Reportedly Preparing To Hand Assange To UK In “Coming Weeks Or Days”

Ecuador is preparing to hand over WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange to the UK in “coming weeks or even days,” RT editor-in-chief Margarita Simonyan reported, as political support and sympathy for Assange’s predicament have more or less evaporated since the arrival of an administration that largely views Assange as an inherited problem, and would like more than anything to finally be rid of him. “My sources tell [Julian] Assange will be handed over to Britain in the coming weeks or even days,” Simonyan wrote in a recent tweet which was reposted by WikiLeaks. “Like never before, I wish my sources were wrong,” she continued.

Earlier this week, reports surfaced in the UK media that high level talks were happening between UK and Ecuadorian officials to try and remove Assange from the embassy.

Foreign Office Minister Sir Alan Duncan is said to be spearheading the diplomatic effort. Sources close to Assange said he himself was not aware of the talks but believed that America was putting “significant pressure” on Ecuador, including threatening to block an IMF loan, if he continues to stay at the embassy. The Times report comes just weeks before a visit to the UK by the newly-elected Ecuadorian president, Lenin Moreno, who has labeled Assange a “hacker”, “an inherited problem” and a “stone in the shoe.”

Assange

Hostilities to Assange’s presence in the embassy have been climbing for weeks. In late March of this year, the Ecuadorian government suspended Assange’s communication privileges with the outside world and cutting off his Internet access. That crackdown followed Assange’s decision to speak out about the Spanish government’s treatment of the Catalan independence movement.

Assange has been holed up in the embassy since 2012. Though Sweden long ago dropped its request that Assange be extradicted, he is still struggling with legal issues in the UK: Earlier this year, a UK court declined to reverse his arrest warrant for violating his bail terms when he initially took refuge at the embassy. Wikileaks has released thousands of diplomatic cables belonging to the US, and US officials, including Attorney General Jeff Sessions, have said Assange’s arrest is a “priority.”

As things stand, appears Assange will almost certainly be arrested once turned out of the embassy. But as that fate looks increasingly certain, it’s important to remember that a UN panel determined that Assange’s stay in the embassy amounted to “arbitrary detention” but it wasn’t enough to change his fate.

Furthermore, as we pointed out earlier this week, US imported a record amount of crude from Ecuador last week (a massive unprecedented surge all of a sudden), which begs the question…was there a payoff?

Ecuador

via RSS https://ift.tt/2LyOesS Tyler Durden

NFL Freezes Policy Barring Players From Kneeling During Anthem

In a move that is sure to anger President Trump, the NFL’s two-month old national anthem policy is on hold.

As a reminder, back in May the NFL passed a rule that forbid players from sitting or taking a knee if they are on the field or sidelines during “The Star-Spangled Banner,” but allowed them to stay in the locker room if they wish. The policy said teams would be fined if players didn’t stand during the anthem while on the field. The league left it up to teams on how to punish players.

However, shortly after The AP reported on Thursday that Miami Dolphins players who protest on the field during the anthem could be suspended for up to four games under a team policy issued this week, the league and the players union issued a statement late Thursday night saying the two sides are talking things out. More details from the statement, from the AP:

“The NFL and NFLPA, through recent discussions, have been working on a resolution to the anthem issue. In order to allow this constructive dialogue to continue, we have come to a standstill agreement on the NFLPA’s grievance and on the NFL’s anthem policy. No new rules relating to the anthem will be issued or enforced for the next several weeks while these confidential discussions are ongoing.”

“The NFL and NFLPA reflect the great values of America, which are repeatedly demonstrated by the many players doing extraordinary work in communities across our country to promote equality, fairness and justice. Our shared focus will remain on finding a solution to the anthem issue through mutual, good faith commitments, outside of litigation.”

The issue which has dominated headlines over the past two seasons, and was the catalyst for the eventual downfall of Papa John’s founder John Schnatter, has led to division and alienated some fans.

In response to the NFL’s may decision, none of the team policies had been made public until the AP obtained a copy of Miami’s nine-page discipline document. And, as the AP reported earlier, it included a one-sentence section on “Proper Anthem Conduct.” It classifies anthem protests under a large list of “conduct detrimental to the club,” all of which could lead to a paid or unpaid suspension, a fine or both.

The Dolphins said in a statement: “The NFL required each team to submit their rules regarding the anthem before their players reported to training camp. We will address this issue once the season starts. All options are still open.”

According to the document, Miami can choose not to issue any suspension nor fine any player guilty of “conduct detrimental to the club.” Other violations under that label include drug use or possession, gambling, breaking curfew and riding motorcycles as a driver or passenger from the start of camp until the last game of the season.

Meanwhile, Jets acting owner Christopher Johnson said shortly after the league announced its policy that he will not punish his players for any peaceful protests — and would pay any potential fines incurred by the team as a result of his players’ actions.

* * *

These new league rules were challenged this month in a grievance by the players union. The NFLPA said the NFL policy, which the league imposed without consultation with the players union, is inconsistent with the collective bargaining agreement and infringes on player rights. Now, the two sides are hoping to reach a solution without litigation.

“Players who are on the field during the Anthem performance must stand and show respect for the flag and the Anthem,” says the 16th and final bullet point on Miami’s list of conduct considered detrimental, below disparaging teammates, coaches or officials including NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell.

The NFL started requiring players to be on the field for the anthem in 2009 — the year it signed a marketing deal with the military. But in 2016, then-49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick began protesting police brutality, social injustice and racial inequality by kneeling during the national anthem, and the demonstration spread to other players and teams.

Critics led by President Donald Trump called the players unpatriotic and even said NFL owners should fire any player who refused to stand during the anthem. Some players countered that their actions were being misconstrued and that they are seeking social change rather than protesting the anthem itself.

Trump’s criticism led more than 200 players to protest during one weekend, and some kept it up throughout the season.

Kaepernick didn’t play at all last season and still hasn’t been picked up by another team. He threw 16 touchdown passes and four interceptions in his final season in 2016. Safety Eric Reid, one of Kaepernick’s former teammates and another protest leader, is also out of work.

Both have filed collusion grievances against the NFL.

via RSS https://ift.tt/2uBA585 Tyler Durden

‘Peaceful’ Montenegro Says It’s ‘Too Small’ To Start World War III

Montenegro’s foreign minister says his country is “too small” to start World War III. His comment appears two days after U.S. President Donald Trump’s suggestion that “aggressive” Montenegrins could spark a global conflict.

“We have no intentions whatsoever to start World War III, we are too small for that,” Montenegro Foreign Minister Srdjan Darmanovic tells CNN in an interview published today. “It was fun to hear about it, actually like a good joke, but we are a very peaceful nation.”

On Wednesday, Fox News host Tucker Carlson asked Trump why the United States should send forces to defend the small NATO member if it were attacked, as mandated by Article 5 of NATO’s Washington Treaty. “They may get aggressive, and congratulations, you’re in World War III,” Trump responded.

Montenegrin officials disagree. “Aggressive is a word which can’t be applied in the case of Montenegro,” Montenegrin U.N. Ambassador Milica Pejanovic-Djurisic tells The Washington Post. In a statement posted on its official website, the Montenegrin government says it is “proud” of the “history and tradition and peaceful politics that led to the position of a stabilising state in the region.”

Darmanovic, for his part, isn’t taking Trump’s words literally. “I think President Trump actually did not speak on Montenegro. He spoke on 2 percent on financing and contributing to NATO, and Montenegro was just picked up as an example—maybe because we are one of the tiniest countries in the alliance,” he said. Regardless of what Trump did or did not mean to say, the president signed a communiqué endorsing Article 5 during the NATO summit in Belgium earlier this month.

It’s unlikely that Montenegro will cause World War III, though not impossible. Montenegro joined NATO last June to the great chagrin of Russia, which supported a failed coup against the Montenegrin government in 2016. If Russia were to invade the tiny nation, the U.S. would be required to come to Montenegro’s defense, potentially sparking a massive global conflict. Again, that’s unlikely. But it wouldn’t be the first time a world war started in a small Balkan country.

from Hit & Run https://ift.tt/2mxd8P1
via IFTTT

Kunstler On The Resistance’s Displacement-Projection Syndrome

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

“For more than a decade, Russia has meddled in elections around the world, supported brutal dictators and invaded sovereign nations — all to the detriment of United States interests.”
— The New York Times

The Resistance sure got a case of the vapors this week over Mr. Trump’s failure to throttle America’s arch-enemy, the murderous thug V. Putin of Russia, onstage in Helsinki, as any genuine Marvel Comix hero is expected to do when facing consummate evil. Instead, the Golden Golem of Greatness voiced some doubts about the veracity of our “intelligence community” — as the shape-shifting Moloch of black ops likes to call itself, as if it were a kindly service organization in Mr. Rogers neighborhood, collecting dimes for victims of childhood cancer.

If I may be frank, the US Intel community looks like a much bigger threat to American life and values than anything Mr. Putin is doing, for instance his alleged “meddling” in US elections. This word, meddling, absolutely pervades the captive Resistance news outlets these days. It has a thrilling vagueness about it, intimating all kinds of dark deeds without specifying anything, as consorting with Satan once did in our history. The reason: the only specific acts associated with this meddling include the disclosure of incriminating emails among the Democratic National Committee leadership, and a tiny gang of Facebook trolls making sport of profoundly idiotic and dysfunctional American electoral politics.

The brief against Russia also contains vague accusations of “aggression.” It is hard to discern what is meant by that — though it apparently warms the heart of American war hawks and their paymasters in the warfare industries. They allege that Russia “stole” Crimea from Ukraine. Consider: Crimea had been a province of Russia since the 1700s. Ukraine itself was a province of the USSR when Nikita Khrushchev put Crimea under Ukraine’s administrative control in 1956, a relationship which became obviously problematic after the breakup of the soviet mega-state in 1990 — and became even more of a problem when the US State Department and our CIA stage-managed a coup against the Russia-leaning Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych in 2014. Crimea is the site of Russia’s only warm water naval bases. Do you suppose that even an experience American CIA analyst might understand that Russia would under no circumstances give up those assets? Please, grow up.

Does anyone remember the explicit promise that US Government gave the first post-Soviet president, Mr. Yeltsin, that NATO would not expand into the countries of eastern Europe formerly under soviet control? NATO now includes the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia, Albania, Croatia, and Montenegro. Is anyone aware that NATO has been staging war games on Russia’s border the past several years? Do you suppose this might be disturbing to the Russians, who lost at least 20 million dead when Germany crossed that border in 1941?

As to the thug-and-murderer charge against V. Putin, has any news org actually published a list of his alleged victims? It’s very likely, of course, that Mr. Putin has had some of his political enemies killed. I wouldn’t take the “con” side of that argument. But I’d  be interested in seeing an authoritative list, if the intel community has one (and why wouldn’t they?). I imagine it doesn’t exceed two dozen individuals. How many innocent bystanders did President Obama kill during the drone attack spree of his second term, when our rockets blew up wedding parties and sandwich shops in faraway lands. In 2016, The Atlantic published this:

One campaign, Operation Haymaker, took place in northeastern Afghanistan. Between January 2012 and February 2013, The Intercept reported, “U.S. special operations airstrikes killed more than 200 people. Of those, only 35 were the intended targets. During one five-month period of the operation, according to the documents, nearly 90 percent of the people killed in airstrikes were not the intended targets.”

I suppose the excuse is that none of this was personal – as V. Putin’s alleged murders were. No, it wasn’t personal. It was worse than that. It was a bunch of military video-game jocks sitting around an air-conditioned bunker eating hot pockets and slurping slurpees while snuffing out lives by remote control twelve-thousand miles away. I wouldn’t be surprised if they were high-fiving each other with every hit, too.

As for “hacking” of elections, do you suppose for minute that we do not have hundreds, or perhaps thousands, of computer techies at our many sprawling NSA facilities around the country working around the clock to penetrate foreign computer defenses absolutely everywhere, among friend and foe alike? And that we are not trying to influence the outcomes of their political struggles in our favor? Go a step further: do you suppose those US “intel community” hackers are not also collecting information about American citizens, including yourself?

via RSS https://ift.tt/2L9kYNf Tyler Durden

Why One Analyst Thinks It’s Time To Sell The FAANGs

While the FAANG stocks remain a favorite group for both institutional and retail investors, having been responsible for all the market gains in the first half of 2018, a new round of warnings about their future performance has emerged in recent days.

On Wednesday, during CNBC’s Delivering Alpha conference, Oaktree’s Howard Marks doubled down on his January warning about the frothy market-leading sector explaining what he sees as the “red flashing lights” facing FAANGs:

… you see, when something has worked for six, eight, ten years, people do tend to consider it a perpetual motion machine and think it’ll go on forever; and people say, Well, is that what’s going to crack it? And the answer is, well, what’s going to change their mind? As long as they think that Amazon and ETFs are perpetual motion machines and they keep putting in capital, they won’t crack. So clearly, when they crack, that could be something that hurts the market a lot. What’s going to make them crack?

Marks’ latest warning follows several previous ones, most notably last summer when he cautioned that the addiction to FAANG gains is among a handful of investor vulnerabilities that could spell doom for the bull market. Back in November 2016, Jeff Gundlach also urged investors to avoid the group; since then FAANGs have dramatically outperformed the broader market much to the chagrin of David Einhorn whose “short basket” of mostly tech names has led to dramatic undeperformance for Greenlight Capital in 2018.

Still, all warnings have so far fallen by the wayside as inflows in the tech sector continue to run at a record pace, suggesting that bullish sentiment is so entrenched it would take a shock to shake investor confidence.

Demonstrating the resilience of the euphoria for FAANGs, not even Netflix’ surprisingly week Q2 results and guidance did much to dent enthusiasm for the e-commerce and tech names, and the Nasdaq in general.

However, relentless upward price action does not mean that analysts can not and should not try to warn about the potential risks investors face by putting money into this group, the majority of whose members trade near at all time highs, and today another strategist fired a warning shot at the at the FAANG sector.

In a Thursday note to clients, Chris Senyek, chief investment strategist at Wolfe Research, urged investors to exit Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google, saying too much love has led to valuations with signs of “frothiness.”

Investors are chasing the most expensive stocks, treating them as safe amid an escalation in trade tensions, but it’s a stance likely to backfire, he said quoted by Bloomberg.

As a potential downside catalyst, Senyek noted that no matter the trade war outcome, tech stocks are likely to suffer in both a favorable or unfavorable outcome.

The risk-reward in high-momentum stocks is highly skewed to the downside. If a resolution with trade issues occurs, we expect a sharp rotation out of these momentum stocks. Similarly, if a trade war unfolds, we’d expect another drawdown in the market with the highest P/E momentum names materially underperforming.”

This too warning is being ignored today, with Nasdaq well in the green, and FANG stocks surging on average 50% in the past year, quadrupling the gains of the S&P.

Meanwhile, the next chart shows the closest thing to price indescriminate euphoria the market has experienced since the dot com boom: expensive stocks get more expensive and cheap stocks get cheaper, a sign that investors are riding momentum and caring little about how much they pay, Senyek said. The valuation gap between momentum darlings and overlooked stocks are particularly extreme in the tech space.

As Bloomberg further notes, the PE multiple for the highest momentum stocks is now about 50 points higher than those with the lowest valuation. In the previous nine years, the gap mostly stayed below 20 as a result of an unprecedented scramble to allocated capital to the one group that has continued to outperform no matter the macro environment.

Meanwhile, the core underlying paradox remains: “Perversely, some of the market’s most expensive stocks have been viewed by investors as safe havens during turbulent time,” Seynek said. “We’d use these stocks as a source of funds in the weeks ahead.”

For now, however, sellers are missing, as is the answer to Marks question: “What’s going to make them crack?

via RSS https://ift.tt/2zVvin3 Tyler Durden

Pompeo: “Trump Relentless In Protecting America From Russian Aggression”

President Trump “understands what Russia did in our elections in 2016 and he has empowered” his administration officials to ensure it doesn’t happen in this year’s midterm elections or in 2020, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told Fox News on Thursday, adding that “this administration has been relentless in its efforts to deter Russia from its bad behavior… President Trump has been strong in protecting America from Russian aggression.”

Pompeo said Trump has been briefed on the matter consistently and knows Russia interfered both in 2016 and prior years, adding that the matter gets “confused” because some people want to make it a partisan issue due to Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s probe.

The Secretary of State also rejected any idea Trump is weak compared to Russian President Vladimir Putin or that Putin may have compromising information on Trump: “Those allegations are absurd.”

The Secretary of State claimed the Trump administration had inherited a situation from its predecessor where Russia was “running all over the US.”

Pompeo also said he doubted that US and Russian presidents had made important verbal agreements at their recent summit.

“I’m not sure I take the Russian ambassador’s word for a whole lot. From time to time they want to tell stories,” Pompeo said on Fox News.

The top US diplomat said he had a chance to talk with Trump about his private discussions with Putin in Helsinki last Monday. “There was progress made on a handful of agreements to try and work more closely on counterterrorism, an effort to begin conversations around arms control.”

Refuting that, however, the Russian Ambassador to the United States Anatoly Antonov told Rossia-1 television channel on Wednesday Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump reached deals on matters of global security.

Earlier, Pompeo told the EWTN TV channel that Donald Trump was able to set up a channel for dialogue with Russia: “The President was aiming towards creating a channel for communication and dialogue, and he achieved that” he said.

Pompeo also complained about “a lot of heat” following this Monday’s summit between the two presidents, who met behind closed doors in Helsinki. “The President had the objective of taking two countries that’d been on a bad path and trying to redirect that,” he underscored.

Earlier in the day, Donald Trump told CNBC that “he would be the worst enemy” Russian President Vladimir Putin has ever had if relationship between the United States and Russia falters.

“Getting along with President Putin, getting along with Russia is a positive, not a negative,” Trump told CNBC. “Now with that being said, if that doesn’t work out I’ll be the worst enemy he’s ever had, the worst he’s ever had.”

via RSS https://ift.tt/2uCZyxN Tyler Durden

Sen. Mike Lee on Brett Kavanaugh, Trump’s Tariffs, and Congressional Dysfunction – New at Reason

Senator Mike Lee (R-Utah) sat down with Reason‘s Editor-at-Large Matt Welch to talk about the upcoming confirmation hearings for Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, what concerns him about Trump’s tariffs and the future of criminal justice reform. Watch above or click here for full text and downloadable versions.

Subscribe to our YouTube channel.

Like us on Facebook.

Follow us on Twitter.

Subscribe to our podcast at iTunes.

from Hit & Run https://ift.tt/2O1NjDf
via IFTTT