Broward County Cop Ignored Training, Told Deputies to Form Perimeter Instead of Confronting Nikolas Cruz

ParklandOn the day of the Parkland massacre, Capt. Janice Jordan of the Broward County Sheriff’s Office commanded deputies on the scene to secure a perimeter—which they did, instead of entering the building where Nikolas Cruz killed 17 people.

That’s contrary to police training, which emphasizes that officers should engage a suspected mass shooter immediately.

According to the dispatch log records obtained by The Miami Herald and Fox News, Jordan issued the command “need perimeter.” A few minutes later, she mentioned the importance of setting up a staging area. None of the Broward deputies on scene entered the building, and School Resource Officer Scot Peterson remained outside as well. (Peterson has since lost his job.) The first cop to go inside worked for the Coral Springs Police Department.

Jordan’s unwise orders might not have made a difference: According to The Herald, Cruz’s six-minute rampage was already over by the time the she issued the perimeter command. It’s possible that Cruz ended the mass shooting early because his gun jammed. If that hadn’t happened, the decision to set up a perimeter could have been very consequential.

Jordan is currently a finalist for a police chief job in Tequesta, Florida. She told The Palm Beach Post that “Parkland should not affect my chances for this position.”

More amazing leadership from a law enforcement agency that failed to take appropriate action before, during, and after the shooting.

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Florida Lawmaker Drops Proposal to Let Victims of Sex Trafficking Sue Hotels

Florida lawmakers made headlines last month with a proposal to let people sexually exploited in hotel rooms sue the hotel where the abuse took place. The bill would have imposed $50,000 to $100,000 in fines on defendants who lose, in addition to any money awarded to the victim. The legislation had “widespread support, passing three committees without anyone voting against it,” according to the Tampa Bay Times. But on Thursday, the bill’s sponsor yanked the legislation from current consideration, asking that any further action on it be postponed.

The bill had needed one more committee vote before moving on to the full Senate. But state Sen. Lauren Book (D-Plantation) said that because the bill was unlikely to pass in the House, she didn’t want “waste the committee’s time” on something with no future.

Reasonable, right? Not to Times reporter Lawrence Mower, who casts Book’s move as cowardly kowtowing to the tourism industry. Disney and the Florida Restaurant and Lodging Association were reportedly lobbying against the bill behind the scenes.

But whatever the senator’s motives might have been, the outcome here is undoubtedly a good one.

Allowing the victims of sex trafficking to sue hotels where they were exploited does nothing to prevent exploitation in the first place or to punish those responsible for it. It creates enormous incentives for fraud. It also gives sex traffickers an incentive to avoid hotels and motels in favor of more private places—places where their victims are much less likely to able to make their plight known.

It creates a new imperative for hotel staff to harass innocent customers and invade their privacy. It ensures that sex workers will face more arrests. It defies criminal-justice logic. (After all, we don’t allow the families of people murdered in hotels to file such suits.) And it paves the way for more third parties to be held legally liable for the actions of criminals.

Alas, Book promised to revive this terrible idea in the future.

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Tariff Tantrum Ends With Massive Short Squeeze

Begun The Trade War Has… and that means the end of the world, apparently?

Or not…While President Trump is being blamed for this week’s ugliness in stock markets, some more open-minded observers could see a few other factors involved…

If The Dow closed down 1% today it would be four 1%-down-days in a row – the first time since August 2015 (the China deval and flash crash).

BUT… it turns out that Trade Wars are good!

On the day, Small Caps outperformed, but it seems investors are not in the least bit worried that the world is ending due to Trump tariffs… (/sarc)

As Gluskin-Sheff’s David Rosenberg notes, the recovery in the stock market is being led by health care, consumer staples and telecom — the recession sectors! How interesting. Cyclically-sensitive Transports, meanwhile, are getting trampled.

Total buying panic into safe-havens AAPL and FANGs… buybacks anyone?

Today’s jump in stocks off the opening lows was a massive short-squeeze… “Most Shorted” stocks are up 4.7% from the lows today!

 

The Dow bounced back to its Fib38.2% retracement of the big drop…

 

And remember the massacre in gunmaker stocks overnight? Everything’s fine now…

Still all-in-all, not a pretty week…

 

Vols across all major equity indices were higher on the week…

 

Treasury yields jumped today amid chatter of rate-locks on looming issuance, but on the week 30Y Yields were 2bps lower and 5Y 1bp higher…

 

The Dollar Index ended the week higher for the 4th of the last 5 weeks…

 

Critically however, the last two days have seen the dollar slump back from the Mnuchin Massacre ledge once again…

 

Copper and Crude were clubbed like a baby seal this week as gold and silver limped back up towards unchanged…

 

On the week, Palladium was pounded and Silver was best among the PMs…

 

Bitcoin had a good week, up 11% and back above $11,000, as Ripple lost some ground… This is the only the 3rd up week for Cryptocurrencies this year.

 

Finally, we note that Global Macro-economic data has disappointed to the downside for 7 straight weeks and is now at its lowest since September…and Global Stocks seem to be catching down to that…

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The Market’s Junk Problem

Authored by Sven Henrich via NorthmanTrader.com,

The market has a big junk problem and it’s very evident when taking a close look at the chart of $JNK, the high yield bond ETF. It’s been a brilliant technical indicator as of late and was one of the signals employed in fading the rally earlier in the week.

Note that $JNK has been on a steady uptrend for the better part of a year when suddenly it made a lower high in January while $SPX kept ignoring it and went on to make new highs. Not listening to $JNK was a mistake on the side of market participants.  $JNK signaled troubles was brewing and once markets finally caught on it was all over.

In process of the correction $JNK broke a key supporting trend line and this proved to be a key signal this week:

Note the 2 attempts to recapture the trend line these past 2 weeks. Both attempts failed precisely at the trend line and each time produced selling in markets including this week.

What does this tell us: Firstly, technicals have worked nicely on this chart. The trend line break is bearish and the failure to recapture the trend line is bearish. Doesn’t mean $JNK won’t try again, and it if does it’ll be bullish for markets, but without a recapture it’s not good news for markets and this trend line is moving away, so bull need a solid rally to emerge to race up there.

As long as $JNK stays above the 35.70 gap odds for a big rally are improving. Fall below the gap and markets may make new lows or retests lows.

But as long as $JNK remains below the broken trend line markets are having a junk problem.

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Life Sentence and Champions Bring the Concepts, but Not Guffaws: New at Reason

'Champions'Once upon a time, television sitcoms were mostly high-concept, built in a one-punch concept: Appalachian rednecks move into a Southern California mansion! An astronaut lives with a hot supernatural chick who will do anything for him, except show her belly button! Identical teenage cousins with violently different temperaments (Where Cathy adores a minuet, the Ballets Russes, and crepe suzette, our Patty loves to rock and roll, a hot dog makes her lose control …) wreak havoc!

In recent years, high concept has taken a back seat to sitcoms in which the characters mostly sit around in offices or coffee shops, talking about stuff. Supposedly this is a more realistic approach, though television critic Glenn Garvin’s bosses don’t seem to think so. (“No, you may not take your laptop over to Starbucks for the afternoon.”) But the pendulum may be swinging back, if next week’s sitcom premieres are any indication. The CW’s Life Sentence and NBC’s Champions are very high on concept. Not so much on jokes or characters, though. Garvin takes a closer look.

View this article.

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Hope Hicks Kept “Detailed Diary” At White House, Gets $10MM Book Offer

Soon-to-be-former White House Communications Director Hope Hicks hasn’t even left the West Wing yet, but unsurprisingly, she’s already received a flood of offers from powerful publishers and producers promising eight-figure paydays if she’s wiling to provide juicy insider details like those.

Hicks

A friend of Hicks’ who spoke with the Daily Mail said the communications director – who once handled as many as 250 media requests per day – was “overwhelmed” by the response. As the Mail points out, the desirability of Hicks’ story has increased because of her informal position as the “most glamorous person in the West Wing.”

One anonymous source from inside the publishing industry even went so far as to compare Hicks with Jackie Kennedy.

One insider told the Mail that Hicks kept a diary of her time in the White House, which could be an incredible resource should she decide to write a memoir.

What would it take to do your story as a mini-series or on the big screen? I can get the financing, like tomorrow, and make you rich and even more famous. You have an incredible story.  Let’s talk!’

And since then Hick has been overwhelmed with messages offering millions of dollars in advances for book deals by major publishers, and offers from Hollywood to make biopics about her glamorous political and scandalous life.

As one publishing executive told DailyMail.com, ‘Next to Ivanka and Melania, Hope is the woman closest to the president, and knows all the secrets, all the foibles, all the quirks.

‘She’s also the most glamorous White House female since Jackie Kennedy. Her story will be a blockbuster. I have the authority to offer her an advance of $10 million, and we’re open to negotiate.’

If she does decide to publish, it’d be prudent for Hicks to hold an auction. Hicks could probably walk away with an agreement to keep 15% of total sales.

‘If a book were to happen, it would undoubtedly be the subject of an auction among the major publishers, which would be a key factor in driving up the amount of the advance.’

Another prestigious literary agent who has represented Pulitzer Prize-winning political journalists, among other high-profile, celebrity clients – and receives a fifteen percent commission on every book sold — told DailyMail.com:  ‘Hope Hicks was a star Washington insider.

 ‘I always saw a book coming from her when the time was right. Now the time’s right. Overnight she’s become a potential goldmine.

Several Trump confidants, employees and advisers have books in the works. Corey Lewandowski, Trump’s first campaign manager who briefly dated Hicks during the campaign while he was married to another woman, published a book last year that earned high praise from Trump.

Former Press Secretary Sean Spicer announced in December that he was publishing a West Wing tell-all of his own.

And while we imagine Spicer knows where at least some of the bodies are buried, James Comey’s book – “A Higher Honor: Truth, Lies and Leadership” – is set to be published in mid-April. It already has a sizable backlog of preorders.

Hicks is turning 30 in October. During her time running the communications department, Hicks rarely gave interviews or on-the-record statements – which only deepened the mystique surrounding her personality. That and she famously dated Lewandowski and former Staff Secretary Rob Porter.

We imagine, after all those months of silence, Hicks probably has something to say. The question is: Will she risk her relationship with the president to say it?

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Another “Inconvenient Truth”: Market Tops Are Violent Inflection Points After All

Over the course of the last few days, bulls’ enthusiasm has hit the proverbial brick wall, as stocks have reeled lower in an apparent rerun of the near record plunge observed at the beginning of February. But fear not: following up on Goldman’s prediction from last week that stock buybacks are set to soar to a record $650BN 2018, this morning JPMorgan decided to double down, and forecast an even more ridiculous amount of 2018 buybacks: a whopping $843BN, or just over $70BN per month.

It goes without saying that such a price indescriminate, debt-funded purchase of stocks would do miracles for stocks, which brings us to the good news.

As Nomura’s Charlie McElligott writes, we are currently back in the “low buyback seasonality” period, as the ammo spent coming out of the earnings blackout (when the market was tanking and corporates were gobbling shares) typically again slows ahead of more buying coming back online in the month-ish period prior to Q1 earnings. So in that case, we’d expect buybacks to again pick-up in another week or two into the blackout kick-off mid-April. 

This as always will help “stop the bleed” and reverse the macro-driven market from a flow-perspective, which then calms into the constructive “micro” of “earnings calm.”

In other words, while retail investors may be running on fumes, and institutions continue to be better sellers than buyers, it will be corporate repurchases that save the market once again, as the following chart from UBS shows. 

Now the bad news.

As McElligott also points out, discussing “a super interesting analog” run by his Nomura colleague Anthony Antonucci regarding a theoretical ability to pinpoint prior mkt tops, “essentially what the below is “proving-out” is that contrary to the recently-heard narrative that markets fade and churn at highs before grinding lower, with folks saying there is “no real violence” at the inflection-point—Anthony’s data shows something very different.”

What the table above shows is the following:

The 1-week move on average on a lookback is -2.3% (versus this current selloff at -3.9% through the same period); the 2-week-out move sees a recovery nearing back towards ‘flat’ -0.7% on avg (with this selloff trading back to the exact same -0.7%); then the 1-month move gets very sloppy at -5.2% on avg (with this selloff’s 1m selldown at -3.2%); and finally the 3-month really gets murky -9.6% on average (as we currently at just 5-weeks out sit -6.8%).  Some stuff that is “rhyming” here…

In other words, market tops are indeed violent, and we just had a very violent month. Naturally, it will be up to the price action over the next few weeks to determine if we continue with the downward slope, thus validating the “top formation”, or whether the abovementioned buyback frenzy will once again save stocks from an ugly encounter with gravity.

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Home Pot Delivery Is Cool, but California’s Taxes and Regulations Are Still Onerous

U.S. News recently ranked California’s “quality of life” the worst in the nation, much to the delight of Fox News. (That metric was just one of eight used by the magazine, and California actually came in 32nd over all.) U.S. News assessed quality of life based on measures of the “natural environment” and the “social environment.” One factor that was conspicuously excluded: Can you order marijuana online and have it delivered to your home or office that day?

Stoney, based in Santa Ana, delivers cannabis products throughout the state, generally overnight. Delivery is free for orders over $50; otherwise it costs $8. In Orange County and Los Angeles, the company offers same-day service for $15. All you need is a credit card and an ID proving you are 21 or older. The website has a decent flower selection of about two dozen strains, plus concentrates, shatter, prerolled joints, edibles, and vape pens. It is not exactly an Amazon for pot, but it’s the closest thing I’ve seen.

California is one of just three states that currently allow home delivery of recreational marijuana. The other two are Oregon, which legalized recreational marijuana in 2014 and began allowing deliveries to consumers a year ago, and Nevada, which legalized recreational marijuana in 2016 and allowed home delivery under temporary regulations that lapsed at the end of last year but were renewed as of yesterday.

Delivery to consumers is still banned in Colorado and Washington, the two states where voters approved legalization in 2012, although that may change in Colorado as soon as this fall. Alaska, which legalized recreational marijuana in 2014, does not allow home delivery either. In Massachusetts, where legal sales of recreational marijuana are expected to begin this summer, home delivery will be delayed at least until the fall and possibly later. In Maine legislators have yet to establish a system for licensing and regulating recreational sales. In Vermont and the District of Columbia, recreational use is legal, but sales are not.

The home delivery option is one of the most consumer-friendly aspects of California’s marijuana regulations, along with the allowance for on-site consumption at marijuana stores (subject to local approval). The taxes, by contrast, are decidedly unfriendly. They include $9.25 per ounce sold by growers, a 15 percent excise tax collected by retailers, local marijuana taxes, a 6 percent state sales tax, and local sales taxes. Taxes totaled 31 percent on my Stoney order, not including the levy on growers. At LAX CC, a marijuana shop in Los Angeles that has a big selection (77 strains and 40 concentrates on the day I visited), taxes add 35 percent to the retail price. If you include the wholesale tax, the effective rate on an eighth of an ounce, which was priced at $45 for most strains, is roughly 39 percent.

According to new report from the California Growers Association (CGA), which represents small cannabis cultivators, “taxes were identified as the single greatest barrier to entry” in a survey of the group’s members. The report argues that “current cannabis tax policy is propping up the illicit market, preventing compliance from good-faith operations, and contributing to price increases for patients and consumers.”

A legal eighth in California may cost two or three times as much as a black-market eighth. Taxes are not the only reason street dealers undersell state-licensed marijuana suppliers, who also bear regulatory costs that their illegal competitors escape.

The CGA, which complains that “barriers to entry are impracticably high,” says one problem is the sheer volume and complexity of state and local regulations. Seven state agencies, local building and fire codes, and local regulatory and tax ordinances “all have at least some rules which apply to any given business.” All together, “there are hundreds of pages of relevant regulations.” In the CGA survey, 57 percent of members “indicated that lack of clarity on regulations and compliance was either a ‘significant’ or ‘very significant’ barrier to entry.”

Marijuana businesses need both state and local approval to operate legally. “Only thirteen of California’s fifty-eight counties have passed an ordinance to allow and regulate commercial cannabis activity,” the CGA report says. “Many grows, while in permit counties, are in ban zones.” In Sonoma County, for example, “a ban on cultivation in rural residential and agricultural residential (RR/AR) zones has excluded over 3,000 cultivators from the regulated market.” The CGA also cites a “major” permitting backlog, restrictions on direct marketing, and shortages of licensed testing labs, distributors, and delivery services, as well as a dearth of banking services and inequitable treatment under the Internal Revenue Code (both of which are tied to the continuing federal ban on marijuana).

The CGA estimates that “as little as 25 percent of the cannabis consumed in the state is purchased from licensed retailers.” Since legal recreational sales began just two months ago, that may seem like a good start. But the CGA argues that the black market will persist without tax cuts and regulatory relief to make licensed businesses more competitive.

“Despite strong desire to enter into the regulated marketplace, only 15% [of CGA members] were ‘very confident’ that they would be able to do so,” the report says. “The current system will not achieve its goals without fundamental and structural changes that allow small and independent businesses to enter into compliance.”

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Kurt Loder on Why the Oscars Always Suck but Movies Are Great: Podcast

Legendary journalist—and Reason‘s resident movie reviewer—Kurt Loder talks with Nick Gillespie about this year’s Academy Awards, which will take place on Sunday, March 4, starting at 8:00 P.M. E.T.

The Rolling Stone and MTV veteran discusses why he loved best-picture nominees Lady Bird and Get Out but found The Post a total snooz-fest; ruminates on the singular career of best-actor nominee Gary Oldman, who has played Winston Churchill, Sid Vicious, and Lee Harvey Oswald; describes how Wonder Woman and Black Panther benefited from having a female and African-American director, respectively; and explains why he thinks Harvey Weinstein should burn in hell but the #MeToo movement has gone too far when it comes to James Franco. Loder also talks about—and welcomes!—the end of baby boomer cultural hegemony, how horror and monster movies captured his generation’s heart, and what a recent biography of Rolling Stone founder Jann Wenner got wrong.

Loder’s Reason archive is here.

Audio production by Mark McDaniel.

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Never Mind Volatility: Systemic Risk Is Rising

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

So who’s holding the hot potato of systemic risk now? Everyone.

One of the greatest con jobs of the past 9 years is the status quo’s equivalence of risk and volatility: risk = volatility: so if volatility is low, then risk is low. Wrong: volatility once reflected specific short-term aspects of risk, but measures of volatility such as the VIX have been hijacked to generate the illusion that risk is low.

But even an unmanipulated VIX doesn’t reflect the true measure of systemic risk, a topic Gordon Long and I discuss in our latest program, The Game of Risk Transfer.

The financial industry has reaped enormous “guaranteed” gains by betting against volatility. As volatility steadily declined over the past two years, billions of dollars were reaped by constantly betting that volatility would continue declining.

Other “guaranteed” trades have been corporate buybacks funded by cheap credit and passive index funds Central bank policies–near-zero interest rates and “we’ve got your back” asset purchases that made buying every dip a no-brainer trading strategy–have changed as banks attempt to dial back their stimulus and near-zero rates, and as a result volatility cannot continue declining in a nice straight line heading toward zero.

Higher interest rates have introduced a measure of uncertainty in another “guaranteed gains” trade–betting that interest rates would continue declining. All of these trades were “guaranteed” by central bank stimulus and intervention. In effect, price discovery has been reduced to betting that central banks will continue their current policies–‘don’t fight the Fed.”

Now that central banks have to change course, certainty has morphed into uncertainty, and risk is rising, regardless of what the VIX index does on a daily basis.

Here is what a “guaranteed gains by buying the dip” market looks like: just bet that central banks will buy every dip and suppress volatility, and you’re a genius.

Until the recent spot of bother that destroyed the short-volatility trade, betting on declining volatility “guaranteed gains”:

Meanwhile, back in the real-world economy, wage earners’ share of the economy continues stair-stepping down as every risk-asset bubble eventually pops:

Back in the good old days, corporate profits were the foundation of rising stock valuations. But corporate profits have stagnated while stocks have soared.

Gordon and I discuss the inconvenient reality that risk cannot be destroyed, it can only be transferred to others. So who’s holding the hot potato of systemic risk now? the short answer: every participant holding risk assets, which now includes virtually every asset class.

Suppressing volatility does not mean risk has vanished; rather, it means that risk is increasing as accurate information on systemic risk is being suppressed. The global financial system is becoming increasingly fragile and thus more prone to collapse, and an artificially low measure of volatility doesn’t change this reality.

*  *  *

My new book Money and Work Unchained is $9.95 for the Kindle ebook and $20 for the print edition. Read the first section for free in PDF format. If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.

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