Supreme Court Ruling Means More People Who Plead Guilty Can Appeal

Can a person who pleads guilty to a crime later challenge his conviction on the grounds that the criminal statute he was charged and convicted under is unconstitutional? On Wednesday, the Supreme Court said yes, in a decision that upends an important assumption of federal criminal procedure.

For decades, lower federal courts have held that by pleading guilty, a criminal defendant waives the right to raise most substantive and procedural claims on appeal. This rule has long reassured federal prosecutors that the guilty pleas, which make up of 95 percent of criminal case dispositions in U.S. district courts, will not generate complicated constitutional appeals. The Supreme Court’s decision this week in Rodney Class v. United States may thus shift some of the focus of federal criminal practice, which is now heavily based on negotiating plea agreements, back toward litigation.

Writing for an ideologically unusual majority (composed of the Court’s four Democratic-appointed justices plus Republican appointees Neil Gorsuch and John Roberts), Justice Stephen Breyer wrote that Class’s claims “challenge the Government’s power to criminalize [his] (admitted) conduct. They thereby call into question the Government’s power to ‘constitutionally prosecute’ him. A guilty plea does not bar a direct appeal in these circumstances.” Breyer argued that principle has deep roots in American law, citing decisions as far back as 1860.

Justices Kennedy, Thomas, and Alito dissented from the opinion.

This result is unlikely to actually free the petitioner, Rodney Class. Class was arrested in 2013 after bringing firearms onto the grounds of the U.S. Capitol, in violation of federal law. According to The Wall Street Journal, “Mr. Class told FBI agents that ‘he was a ‘Constitutional Bounty Hunter’ and a ‘Private Attorney General’ who traveled the nation with guns and other weapons to enforce federal criminal law against judges whom he believed had acted unlawfully.'”

On appeal, Class wishes to raise the claim that the law against bringing firearms onto Capitol grounds violates the Second Amendment and the Due Process clause. He will now be able to do so, but under current Second Amendment precedents in the D.C. Circuit, where his appeal will be heard, it is unlikely that those claims will succeed.

But whether or not the ruling frees Rodney Class, it may require a revision of the federal plea colloquy, a largely scripted exchange between judge and defendant that must take place before the entry of a guilty plea. Toward the end of the colloquy—which can take as long as 30 minutes, depending on the judge—the defendant is asked whether he understands that by pleading guilty, he is waiving all possible appellate claims except for newly discovered evidence, ineffective assistance of counsel, and illegality of the sentence. The decision in Class will probably require, at minimum, an additional caveat during that portion of the colloquy.

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Assassin’s Creed: Games with a Libertarian View of the World (New at Reason)

Video games have become one of our most influential, popular, and creative forms of media. Last year, the industry generated almost $150 billion in revenue worldwide, rivaling books and films and dwarfing music.

Gamers spend over three billion hours a week in the virtual worlds of their choosing. And more so than other contemporary forms of media, video games explore the themes of freedom and personal agency, allowing players to go where they want and do what they please—as long as they’re prepared to bear the consequences. Two of the three best selling video games of all time are Grand Theft Auto 5 and Minecraft. They’re polar opposites in terms of violence and target audience, but both were designed to offer players the opportunity to make their own destinies.

But it’s the Assassin’s Creed series, published by Ubisoft, that puts the conflict between liberty and authority at the center of its plots, its characters, and the alternate history in which the games are set. Reason takes a look at the series’ narrative merits, and at the titular creed.

Click here for full text, a transcript, and downloadable versions.

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When Broward County Sheriff Scott Israel Was Accused of Corruption, He Responded: ‘Lions Don’t Care About the Opinions of Sheep’

Scott IsraelBroward County Sheriff Scott Israel—the man whose agency failed to prevent the Parkland massacre despite having received a tip last November that Nikolas Cruz was plotting a mass shooting—has been accused of public corruption.

Two years ago, the Sun Sentinel reported that Israel was rewarding top political supporters by giving them and their family members cushy jobs doing public relations and community outreach for the Broward County Sheriff’s Office. One such position, outreach manager, paid out a salary of $78,489. The person who got that job was the husband of Israel’s campaign manager.

Israel had been a Republican but ran for office as a Democrat. He was first elected sheriff in 2012, then re-elected in 2016. According to the Sun Sentinel:

The outreach workers, who mainly attend community events, are in addition to political activists and others Israel hired into community affairs roles, writing and designing printed pieces about the agency, and sharing it on social media. The employee log shows six hired into community affairs roles, their salaries totaling $388,729.

Israel’s opponents say he’s built a publicly funded political machine, paying back supporters with jobs and using them to keep him in office. They say the money could be better spent, particularly after the sheriff complained about not having enough funding to secure the county courthouse, where a murder suspect recently escaped.

Asked about the allegations, Israel responded, “What have I done differently than Don Shula or Abraham Lincoln or Martin Luther King, Ghandi?”

He also said, “Lions don’t care about the opinions of sheep.” That’s a paraphrase of a quote from the Game of Thrones character Tywin Lannister, a villainous public administrator known for promoting his family’s interests ahead of the government’s or the people’s.

Were the employees hired to work at the Sheriff’s Office competent? It certainly seems like a relevant question now that we know the authorities were forewarned about the dangers posed by Cruz. The office received at least 18 calls about Cruz’s disturbing behavior and possession of weapons from 2008 to 2017. BuzzFeed has obtained records related to those calls. The most recent one, made on November 30, 2017, described Cruz as a “school shooter in the making.” Broward County referred the matter to the Palm Beach Sheriff’s Office but took no further action—even though a relative of Cruz had warned Broward County about Cruz’s stash of weapons just three days before.

This news follows the resignation of Marjory Stoneman Douglas School Resource Officer Scot Peterson, who refused to engage the killer while the rampage was underway. Israel suspended Peterson after watching video footage of the SRO’s behavior, saying that it made him “sick to my stomach.”

Given the appalling failures that took place at Israel’s office, the “sheep” might like the “lion” some questions. Perhaps he could answer them in a less condescending and authoritarian fashion.

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Libor-OIS Contagion: As Spread Blows Out, It Starts To “Infect” Other Markets

Earlier this week we noted that as trader attentions have been focused on more conventional indicators of market risk, the USD Libor-OIS spread – historical a sign of credit concerns – has been blowing up, widening the most since last Feb as Libor has continued to creep higher, while commercial paper rates for financials are also rising as more issuers have been selling longer-dated obligations, and moving closer on the curve.

Well, earlier today the USD Libor-OIS spread widened again, pushing to 35bp, from 34bp the prior session as three-month Libor rose for the 13th straight session.

Among the most immediate catalysts for the rise is that as Bloomberg noted this morning, BofA revised its 3M Libor forecasts higher, and now sees 2.6% at end-2018 assuming three Fed rate hikes in 2018, a higher Fed effective rate and “persistent tightness” in USD funding conditions. The bank also boosted its Libor-OIS spread forecasts based on said tightening in USD funding conditions “and its evolution over coming quarters” and now sees 31bp by end-1Q, 38bp by year-end.

The key question here, and one we asked on Wednesday, is “why is there persistent tightness” in USD funding conditions, and is there another dollar shortage quietly forming behind the scenes?

In short, and as explained in more detail previously, the answer may be yes, and the culprit is the same “echo taper” discussed here last year (and recently by Credit Suisse’s Zoltan Pozsar) , when we commented on the impact repatriation would have on rates, and especially the front-end.

To grossly simplify, what is going on is what as a result of the hundreds of billion in repatriated cash, many companies will use the newly unencumbered proceeds to repurchase debt and delever (if only on a gross basis). This has a direct impact on dollar funding markets, and specifically the Libor OIS, as financial markets are now losing one of the biggest providers of funding in the front-end. This is certainly the case in the corporate bond market, but also the commercial paper market, money market funds, CDs, securitized products and other fixed income asset classes.  This was explained last October in “Why US Tax Reform Will Put Even More Pressure On Dollar Funding Markets.

As BofA’s Hans Mikkelsen wrote, “it is impossible to overestimate the importance of this story and we are seeing the effects already in a number of ways.”

First, we think liquidations the past two weeks of 1-3 year paper in the corporate bond market is to some extent driven by this story (liquidations from foreign investors are possible too and the cost of dollar hedging is too high).

We are also seeing stress in the commercial paper market, 2-year swap spreads and LIBOR-OIS and one of the derivers we think is the overseas cash repatriation story. We continue to expect wider credit spreads in the front end of the curve

With every passing day, and with ever 1bps increase in the Libor-OIS spread, we are seeing the indirect effect repatriation will have on this key part of the fixed income market.

And now, in an alarming twist, it’s no longer just the US that is impacted.  As Bloomberg’s Richard Jones writes, “the rising USD Libor and wider FRA/OIS spreads are starting to infect other markets.

Jones says to look at the U.K., where the ~5bps increase in 3-mo. GBP Libor fixings this month is drawing plenty of interest — especially as over half of the move occurred this week.

While part of that move is due to expectations of higher BOE rates, because the Libors are slower to price those in than Sonias or Short-Sterling contracts, with both the Fed and BOE having recently raised rates (and expected to do more), the higher USD fixing will exert upward pressure on the GBP fixing as well.

More importantly, Jones writes that traditionally wider OIS spreads have been a sign of credit concerns, and adding to the complication, you are get a widening of the cross-currency basis with it, which in turn makes it less economical for foreigners to purchase US Treasurys. In this context, below we show why buying FX-hedged US debt has become non economical. The Nordea chart below shows that a European investor is better off buying BUNDS than UST FX Hedged.

What is causing this distortion?  According to Jones, given that the 3M cross-Fx basis is quite tight, it’s clear other influences such as the supply of T-bills is in play; add to this concerns over how repatriation will impact dollar funding, and what until now was a modest tempest in a teacup has literally crossed across the ocean.

The irony is that the tighter the USD-funding conditions get, the wider the FRA/OIS spread will drift, the less global demand for FX-hedged US paper there will be, the higher US Treasury rates rise to prompt demand, until eventually yields push so high that the already stretched correlation between rising yields and stocks finally snaps, leading to an equity correction (or crash), which in turn forces the Fed to ease financial conditions, resetting the cycle all over again.

Bottom line: in addition to following the 10Y, the USD, and of course the S&P, add Libor/OIS to your watchlist: it may prove the most forward-looking canary in this particular coal mine.

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Watch Live: Trump, Australian Prime Minister Talk Trade During White House Press Conference

More than a year since the two world leaders reportedly engaged in a heated exchange that ended with President Trump angrily hanging up the phone, Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and his wife are visiting the White House – and the two leaders are holding a joint press conference this afternoon.

The event begins at 2 pm. Watch live below:

Trump met Turnbull briefly when the two leaders boarded a US military ship the USS Intrepid. Turnbull later used this meeting as grist for a few jabs at Trump that leaked to the media last year. Trump is trying to safeguard the special relationship between the US and Australia and repair the damage caused by the US withdrawing from the TPP.

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Pat Buchanan On Nicholas Cruz: “The System Failed Up & Down The Line”

Authored by Pat Buchanan via Buchanan.org,

In days gone by, a massacre of students like the atrocity at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School would have brought us together.

But like so many atrocities before it, this mass murder is tearing us apart.

The perpetrator, the sick and evil 19-year-old who killed 17 innocents with a gun is said to be contrite.

Having confessed, he faces life in prison. For the next half-century, Nikolas Cruz will be fed, clothed, sheltered and medicated at the expense of Florida taxpayers, including the families of those he murdered.

Cruz’s punishment seems neither commensurate with his crimes nor a deterrent for sick and evil minds contemplating another Columbine.

It didn’t use to be this way.

On Feb 15, 1933, anarchist Giuseppe Zangara tried to assassinate President-elect Franklin Roosevelt in Miami. His arm jostled, he killed instead Chicago Mayor Anton Cermak. Five weeks later, on March 20, 1933, Zangara died in the electric chair.

Swift, sure and pitiless, but that legal justice system worked.

With Cruz, the system failed up and down the line.

Cruz should never have been allowed to purchase or possess a gun. He was angry, alienated, isolated. Police had been to his family home to deal with complaints 39 times. Yet he had no arrest record when he purchased his AR-15.

Classmates at Douglas High had speculated that if there ever were a school shooting, Cruz would be the one to do it. The FBI was alerted a month before that Nikolas Cruz was a time bomb ready to explode.

The NRA was not responsible for the system-wide failure from Douglas High to the FBI. As the NRA’s Dana Loesch told CPAC Thursday:

“The government can’t keep you safe and some people want us to give up our firearms and rely solely upon the protection of the same government that’s already failed us numerous times to keep us safe.”

As for the AR-15, it is the most popular rifle sold. Five million to 8 million are in circulation. Veterans since Vietnam have trained with, and many fought with, the M16, which is first cousin to the AR-15. Veterans are among the millions who own them.

While all agree AR-15s should be kept out of the hands of crazies like Cruz, the establishment insists that it is the gun that is the problem.

We hear demands that AR-15s be banned and confiscated.

Proponents should put that proposition to a vote. But a prediction: The moment it is brought up for a vote, sales of AR-15s will explode, as they have before. If the weapon is banned, as alcohol was banned in Prohibition, millions of law-abiding Americans will become law-breakers.

And who will barge into America’s homes to seize and collect the rifles?

Moreover, if people have decided to mass murder classmates or co-workers, inviting “suicide by cop,” are they going to be stopped from acquiring a semiautomatic by a congressional law?

Have our drug laws halted drug use?

Many of the guns confiscated by police are in the possession of thugs, criminals and ex-cons who have no legal right to own them. Yet, if we are going to prosecute the illegal sale or transfer of weapons severely, we will have hundreds of thousands more in prisons, at a time when we are instructed to empty them of nonviolent offenders.

As for mental illness, it seems more prevalent than it used to be, and the numbers of those on medication seems a greater share of the population.

Do doctors decide which of their patients are fit to own a gun, and which are not? Should doctors be held criminally liable if they fail to alert police and one of their patients uses a gun in a violent crime?

Who will maintain the federal registry of the mentally sick unfit to own a firearm?

The anger and anguish of those who lost family or friends in this atrocity is understandable. But passion is not a substitute for thought.

There are twice as many guns in America as there were just decades ago. And a primary reason people acquire them is because they believe they need them to protect themselves and their families, and they no longer trust the government to protect them.

They view the demand for banning and confiscating specific weapons as a first step down the inexorable road that ends in the disarmament of the people.

Most mass shootings take place in gun-free zones, where crazed men of murderous intent know their chances of maximizing the dead and wounded are far better than in attacking a police station.

Our embassies are defended by Marines with M16s. Security guards with guns defend banks and military bases, presidents and politicians.

The best way to protect kids in schools may be to protect schools, and run down and incarcerate the known criminals and crazies who are the primary threats.

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McCain Associate Pleads The Fifth Over His Involvement In Delivering Trump Dossier

An associate of Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), David J. Kramer, has invoked his Fifth Amendment right not to testify over a November 2016 trip to London to retrieve a copy of the controversial Trump-Russia dossier and deliver it to the Arizona Senator. McCain then delivered it to former FBI Director James Comey, however the FBI already had a copy at that point in time – as Steele had been feeding the agency portions of the dossier beginning in July 2016. 

Kramer, a former State Department official, is a senior fellow at the McCain Institute for International Leadership at Arizona State University. 

While in London, Kramer met with former UK spy Christopher Steele – the author of the salacious and unverified dossier used by the FBI to obtain a surveillance warrant to spy on members of the Trump campaign, according to British court records obtained by Fox News. Steele was paid $168,000 by Democratic-linked opposition research firm Fusion GPS, which in turn was funded by the Clinton campaign and the DNC. 

Kramer was subpoenaed by the House Intelligence Committee in late December to discuss the trip, which he has now declined to comply with – however he gave a videotaped deposition last December in a separate litigation between Russian technology executives named in the dossier, and BuzzFeed News which published it in January 2017. 

The McCain associate is next expected to appear for a deposition in the BuzzFeed defamation suit on February 27, for which his attorney wants “his entire deposition as attorney’s eyes only confidential.” 

Christopher Steele, meanwhile, has also refused to testify before Congress – which resulted in a criminal referral issued to the Justice Department by Congressional investigators, requesting an investigation into whether Steele lied about the dossier’s distribution and his associated contacts with the media.

The “dossier” – a compilation of memos assembled by Steele, relied heavily on senior Kremlin officials – meaning Hillary Clinton, John McCain, David Kramer, top FBI officials, and every other link in the chain were directly involved in using Russian disinformation against a now-sitting President.

Moreover, Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, former Deputy Director Andrew McCabe and former FBI Director James Comey and Former Attorney General Sally Yates all signed off on the FISA surveillance warrant which used the Russian disinformation, according to a February 2 memo from the House Intelligence Committee. 

What’s more, according to the memo all of the officials who signed off on the FISA application were aware that the Steele dossier was highly unsubstantiated – and relied on the FBI vouching for the British operative. 

How’s that for collusion?

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Debt On Track To Destroy The American Middle Class

Via GoldTelegraph.com,

Economists report the household debt to be at its highest in decades.  Yet, at the same time, we are being told that the economy is doing great. Does anyone see a serious contradiction?

In fact, the current economy only favors the wealthy owing to their flourishing financial assets such as stocks and bonds. Owing to the lack of real assets such as property and commodities, the middle and lower classes are becoming overwhelmed due to the serious consequences of the spending/debt cycle.

American consumers have a collective outstanding household debt of about $13.15 trillion of which nearly $1 trillion is the credit card debt alone, households are truly on a debt binge. These figures should be a wake-up call to all the Americans. The convulsive household debt has surpassed the bubble of 2008 and is still escalating. The economy may not be doing so great, after all.

Compared to 2008, the automobile credit balances have increased to $367 billion whereas the outstanding student loans are around $671 billion. Moreover, 67 percent of household debts belong to consumer mortgages. In 2016, twenty-five percent of all the Americans purchased a new or used vehicle and two-thirds of them are repaying through high-interest, long-term loans.

In fact, the consumer debt has exceeded their income for majority of the Americans.

Consumers have become accustomed using easy credit to maintain a lifestyle unaffordable for them otherwise. If this trend continues, and facts indicate that it will, we will be facing a monumental credit crisis in the near future.

A huge portion of credit card debt is the interest. Credit cards are a convenience and consumers readily pay for the privilege. However, it is necessary for consumers to know how credit card interest actually works.

Take the Smiths, a typical family with $2,000 in credit card debt. The Smiths don’t have a considerable cash reserve and only make a minimum monthly payment of $60.00 at 20 percent interest. The monthly payment against the principal is $26.67 while the interest amount is $33.33. With this payment schedule, the Smiths will pay $4,240 over a period of 15 years.

Mortgages are also a part of the household debt. While outstanding mortgages haven’t reached the bubble of 2008, they have still increased indicating  the possibility of another housing crisis in the not-too-distant future. Moreover, with the rising interest rates, the consumer credit may default. Some families rely on credit cards to meet the basic needs. This is the opposite of economic growth.

The decline in automobile sales is already an indication of the future consumer debt crisis. If lenders continue to provide easy access to credit regardless of its looming default and delinquent potential, retail purchase will face a sharp decline in 2018. This will have serious consequences on the overall economy.

The Federal Reserve and other global lenders are a significant contribution to the problem. They allow printing of trillions of dollars and yens for the lenders to distribute to the borrowing consumers at a high interest, leading to a worldwide inflation. All this printed wealth is merely an illusion yet it is raising the cost of living. Prices are rising at an alamingly faster rate compared to the consumer income. There is no increase in real assets. All this is but a mere mushrooming of debt.

The consequences of federal policy will be inescapable unless reversed and there are no signs of any reversal in near or distant future. At this rate, the consumers will soon face a critical financial bubble. Financial assets, such as stocks and bonds, risk losing substantial value. The wealthy can absorb the losses but the poor and middle class will face financial ruin. Consumers need to seriously consider the need to increase their “real” assets, such as real estate and commodities to prevent a long-term financial nightmare.

The chart below shows how the real assets have curved to an all-time low.

It is high time for the American consumers to wake up and stop believing in the magic of easy credit before it is too late. Their upgraded lifestyle is a bubble of an illusion that will burst soon enough.

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These Are The Top 50 Hedge Fund Long And Short Positions

In Goldman’s latest quarterly hedge fund trend monitor – a survey of 808 hedge funds with $2.1 trillion of gross equity positions ($1.5 trillion long and $649 billion short) – which analyzes hedge fund holdings as of Dec. 31, the bank makes some interesting observations about the current state of the hedge fund industry.

First and foremost, it finds that the “average” hedge fund is up a paltry 1% YTD as of Feb 20, underperforming the S&P for the 8th consecutive year. This follows on the heels of a 13% return for equity funds in 2017, the strongest annual absolute return since 14% in 2013

In terms of holdings, hedge funds stuck with the deflationary themes of growth and momentum despite 4Q tax and interest rate volatility. Tax reform and rising Treasury yields weighed on Technology and other fund favorites in late 4Q. Although funds trimmed their Tech overweight, Goldman found that the tech sector remains the largest net portfolio weight (24%) and the bulk of Goldman’s VIP list (38%). Financials remained the largest net underweight (-445 bp); even as hedge fund paralysis, first noted last quarter, remained as portfolio turnover hovered near record lows.

Below are Goldman’s 5 key observations from this edition of the HF Trend monitor:

  1. PERFORMANCE AND SENTIMENT: The average equity hedge 1. fund has returned 2% YTD, matching the S&P 500. The most popular hedge fund long positions have resumed their 2017 outperformance in early 2018. Funds returned  13% in 2017. Our Hedge Fund VIP basket of most popular long positions has returned 4% YTD, outperforming the S&P 500 during the recent correction in contrast to its typical drawdown behavior. Our growth and momentum factors and the Info Tech sector have outperformed alongside our VIP basket, aiding fund returns following weakness in late 2017.
  2. LEVERAGE: Hedge funds entered 2018 with near-record leverage and maintained risk despite the correction. Funds added nearly $20 billion of net exposure in two index ETFs alone (SPY and IWM) as ETF exposure rose to 3% of long portfolios. Although the S&P 500 suffered its first 10% decline in two years, funds maintained conviction in their positions. Portfolio turnover rose slightly but remained near recent record lows at 28%.
  3. VERY IMPORTANT POSITIONS: Our Hedge Fund VIP list (ticker: GSTHHVIP) of the most popular long positions has led the S&P 500 by 170 bp YTD after outperforming by 450 bp in 2017 (26% vs. 22%). The VIP list contains the 50 stocks that appear most often among the top 10 holdings of fundamentally-driven hedge funds. The list’s top 5 stocks are AMZN, FB, TWX, GOOGL, and MSFT. The basket has outperformed the S&P 500 in 64% of quarters since 2001, generating an average quarterly excess return of 59 bp. 13 new constituents this quarter: AET, AGN, ATVI, BA, COL, CZR, JD, LSXMK, MA, NOW, PCLN, QCOM, and ZAYO.
  4. SECTORS: Hedge fund sector allocations remained largely stable, with funds declining to rotate toward perceived “winners” of tax reform and rising interest rates. Information Technology remains the largest sector weight (24%) although funds trimmed the overweight tilt relative to the Russell 3000 to +107 bp from +307 bp last quarter. Consumer Discretionary is the largest overweight tilt (+432 bp), but positions in the Consumer Discretionary and Energy sectors remain near the smallest tilts that funds have held in those sectors during the last five years. Funds added to their overweight in Health Care (+354 bp) while Financials remains the largest net underweight (-445 bp).
  5. HIGHLY CONCENTRATED STOCKS: The most concentrated hedge fund stocks have lagged the S&P 500 by 200 bp YTD following unusually weak returns in 2017. The basket of 20 firms with the largest share of market cap owned by  hedge funds (ticker: GSTHHFHI) lagged the S&P 500 by 11 pp in 2017, its worst annual performance since 2007. The weakness was driven primarily by two Health Care firms (EVHC and INCY). The basket had outgained the S&P 500 by an average of 9 pp in each of the five years from 2012-16.

One especially interesting observation is that the most crowded hedge fund positions, i.e. Goldman’s Hedge Fund VIP basket, outperformed, as it appears that hedge funds rushed to the “safety” of crowded positions during the recent market swoon, hoping that others had done their homework and that these stocks would not get sold. So far, this assumption has proven correct.

The outperformance of the most popular hedge fund positions during the recent correction underscores the technical nature of the drawdown and the resilience of investor sentiment. As the S&P 500 suffered its first 10% decline in two years, our Hedge Fund VIP basket declined in absolute terms but outperformed both the broad market and the largest short positions. This outperformance stands in contrast to the basket’s typical “high beta” behavior; the most popular stocks typically underperform during market drawdowns as investor selling weighs most heavily on their top positions

Goldman also touches on a topic we discussed earlier in the context of the Fed’s Monetary Policy Report, which warned about record hedge fund leverage.

To be sure, hedge funds continued the trend observed last quarter, as elevated investor positioning at the start of 2018, including hedge fund leverage, remained and according to Goldman’s David Kostin helped explain the sharp S&P 500 drawdown. Specifically, funds added net leverage entering 2018, “anticipating continued strength in equities following the passage of tax reform and a 7% S&P 500 return in 4Q 2017.”

Our analysis of fund filings and short interest data suggests that funds carried a net long exposure of 56%, above the long term average and nearly the highest level on record.

Furthermore, data from Goldman’s Prime Services on exposures showed extremely elevated net and gross leverages prior to the market correction. And although net leverage dropped briefly during the correction, Goldman Prime attributed the decline to mark-to-market dynamics in options positions. Meanwhile, both gross and net exposures currently remain close to recent highs.

Record hedge fund leverage occurred alongside unprecedented net length in US equity futures, historically low mutual fund cash allocations, and all-time high margin debt as a share of market cap.

Also notable: the lack of trading volumes continues to be explained with one simple observation: hedge funds continue to boycott turnover – and trading  even as they concentrate even more into the top 10 positions. The average hedge fund held 68% of its long portfolio in its top 10 positions, just below the record “density” of 69% in 1H 2016. The increase in hedge fund portfolio density in recent years mirrors the growing share of S&P 500 market cap accounted for by the 10 largest index constituents, which now sits just above the average level since 1990 (22%).

Separately, while hedge fund portfolio turnover rose slightly from a record low during 4Q, funds clearly remained committed to their top positions. “Across all portfolio positions, turnover registered 28%. Turnover of the largest quartile of positions, which make up the vast majority of portfolios, also rose slightly to 14% but remained near historical lows.”

* * *

So putting it all together, below are the 50 hedge fund positions compiled by Goldman which make up the latest GS VIP list, i.e., the 50 most popular hedge fund longs, also known as the “Hedge fund Hotel California.”

What is notable about this basket, is that it tends to outperform the S&P in most periods, and did so by 170 bp YTD (3.5% vs. 1.9%) and in 64% of quarters since 2001. But this outperformance comes at a cost: if the selling begins, as it has in the recent past, the basket tends to get hit especially hard: quote Goldman, “although the basket has been a strong historical performer, it suffered its worst historical underperformance vs. the S&P 500 in late 2015 and 1H 2016 (-17% vs. -3%). However, the basket then rallied back to outperform the S&P 500 by 21 percentage points (+52% vs. +31%) between 2H 2016 and early 4Q 2017.”

Conversely, below are the 50 most shorted positions, i.e., the stocks which represent the most important short positions.

And here are the 20 stocks with the highest positive and negative changes in popularity

Finally, beware entering extremely crowded “smart money” positions: Goldman writes that the most concentrated hedge fund stocks – those who have the highest portion of their market cap held by hedge funds- have lagged the S&P 500 by 200 bp YTD following unusually weak returns in 2017.

The basket of 20 firms with the largest share of market cap owned by hedge funds (ticker: GSTHHFHI) has lagged the S&P 500 by 11 pp in 2017, its worst annual performance since 2007. The weakness was driven primarily by two Health Care firms (EVHC and INCY). The basket had outgained the S&P 500 by an average of 9 pp in each of the five years from 2012-16.

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Trump Slams “Coward” Deputy For Not Engaging Florida Shooter

On his way to today’s CPAC conference, President Trump criticized the Florida deputy who didn’t confront Nikolas Cruz, the school shooter from Parkland, Fla., saying “he certainly did a poor job,” and insinuating that he was a “coward.”

 

 

When a reporter asked about the security guard’s behavior and tried to cite it as a reason why school districts shouldn’t arm teachers, the president responded that the guard’s behavior was certainly inadequate.

“Deputy Sheriff Peterson I guess his name is they brought it out and I was surprised – he trained his whole life but when it came time for him to get in there and do something he didn’t have the courage or he didn’t react properly. But there’s no question that he did a poor job.”

“He certainly did a poor job. That’s the case where somebody was outside, they are trained, they didn’t react properly under pressure or they were a coward.

Trump later made similar remarks during his CPAC speech – eliciting cheers of approval – though he refrained from referring to Peterson as a “coward.” He then segued into a discussion of his plan to arm teachers.

“He was not a credit to law enforcement,” Trump said. “He was tested under fire and that wasn’t a good result.”

“A teacher would have shot the hell out of him before he knew what happened,” he said. “I don’t want a hundred guards standing with rifles” but allowing “well trained gun-adept teachers and coaches” to have guns with them at school “would be a major deterrent.”

Trump made no mention of the other ideas he’s floated in the last week, including raising the age for buying rifles from 18 to 21, or banning bump stocks…

 

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/2EP6Wcy Tyler Durden