Trump, Sanders, & The Deep State Darling

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

Always remember who's selling whom, and who's in charge.

Everyone who isn't willfully blind knows that the Corporate (mainstream) Media doesn't give the same coverage to Bernie Sanders as it does to his opponent, Hillary Clinton. Bernie's rallies go unmentioned, his victories are given short shrift and his personal narrative–practically ideal for media glorification–is mentioned in passing, if at all.

A media professional clued me into why the Corporate Media hates Bernie and will move Heaven and Earth to defeat him: Sanders is the only candidate who is seriously promoting campaign finance reform.

When a Super-PAC raises $100 million for Hillary, Jeb, et al., where does 90% of that money go? To the Corporate Media. Corporate Media gorges on political media buys every two years, and increasingly depends on this feasting on Super-PAC money for its outsized profits.

As more and more advertising dollars flow to digital media (online search, Facebook, etc.), traditional media dominated by a handful of corporate giants needs the massive influx of campaign dollars to offset its stagnating revenue model.

My source notes that there are rarely any discounts for campaign media buys–the super-PACs and candidate's campaigns pay full pop, and typically pay in cash: no 90 days receivables for campaigns.

Political campaign buys are almost pure profit, as there is minimal sales effort required and the campaign/super-PAC is paying full freight.

Real campaign finance reform would gut Corporate Media's profits. No wonder the Corporate Media downplays Sanders' campaign, his personal integrity and his chances to become president.

As for the firewall that supposedly divides editorial from advertising: it's there for show, of course, and everyone in the business solemnly declares it's a Great Wall that is never breached, but the reality is the editorial staff know very well who butters their bread–and it sure isn't the folks getting free media coverage when their competitors are buying tens of millions of dollars in advertising.

Nobody has to openly state that big advertisers are not going to get negative coverage; editorial staff know better than to even propose such a self-destructive notion. Stories are either buried ("this one needs more research") or they are never proposed due to self-censorship by editorial staff worried that their head will roll in the next downsizing.

The Corporate Media has a love/hate thing going with Trump: the editorial side (i.e. the newsroom) loves Trump, because readers /viewers /listeners will tune in just to see what new outrageous, offensive verbiage Trump has blurted in the last 12 hours, but the advert-revenue side hates him with a passion because thanks to his non-stop media coverage, he doesn't need to advertise much in the Corporate Media.

According to this estimate, Trump spent $10 million on advertising and received $1.89 billion in free coverage. Deep State Darling Hillary Clinton spent $28 million (is that all?) on adverts and skimmed $746 million in free coverage; Bernie Sanders also spent $28 million and received less than half of Hillary's free coverage ($321 million)–no bias here, folks, everything is fair and unbiased–and drop-out Jeb Bush spent $82 million and scored $214 million in free coverage.

Measuring Donald Trump’s Mammoth Advantage in Free Media

So the editorial side concerned with attracting eyeballs loves loose-cannon Trump, but the real ruler of the media, the revenue side, hates him most passionately: this skinflint spends almost nothing and gets more free coverage than the rest of the candidates put together.

As you consume the coverage and the advertising this election cycle, always remember that 1) the mainstream media in the U.S. is all corporate-owned, 2) corporations exist to maximize profits, 3) profits flow from advertising, not free coverage, and 4) real campaign finance reform will negatively impact Corporate Media profits.

Always remember who's selling whom, and who's in charge: who is the Deep State selling? Who is the Corporate Media selling? Recall that the the Deep State gives the Corporate Media its marching orders: Hillary regains the momentum (New York Times, et al.)


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A.M. Links: EgyptAir Hijacking, Bernie vs. Hillary, Trump’s Popularity Declines

  • An EgyptAir flight en route from Alexandria to Cairo was hijacked and ordered to fly to Cyprus, landing in the port city of Larnaca. After a several hour standoff, Cyprus authorities arrested the hijacker.
  • Pakistan has detained more than 5,000 suspects in the wake of the Easter suicide bombing in Lahore.
  • “Three years ago, on the eve of Obamacare’s implementation, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected that President Obama’s centerpiece legislation would result in an average of 201 million people having private health insurance in any given month of 2016. Now that 2016 is here, the CBO says that just 177 million people, on average, will have private health insurance in any given month of this year—a shortfall of 24 million people.”
  • The Chicago Teachers Union has called for a strike this Friday. According to the union, any member that crosses the picket line “shall be fined the pay earned on the days worked during the strike.”

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SunEdison Plummets 40% On “Substantial Bankruptcy Risk” Warning

Just as we warned was likely, the once infamous hedge fund hotel US solar company SunEdison unit TerraForm Global said on Tuesday there was "substantial risk" that SunEdison would soon seek bankruptcy protection  given liquidity difficulties, noting that "such an action would have a material adverse effect” on TerraForm Global.

 

In 2016 alone, SUNE has collapsed from a hope-strewn $6 price to just 73c this morning…

 

As we detailed last week, the sun is about to set for this solar company…

 
 

The Beginning of the End?

 

Debtwire (“DW”) Report Suggests SUNE in Debtor-in-Possession (“DIP”) Negotiations with $725mn LIBOR +1,000bps A-1 & A-2 2018 Second Lien Term Loan Holders. Yesterday, DW (link) reported that SUNE, after talks failed to reach an out-of-court solution with second lien holders around resolving liquidity/leverage problems, entered into DIP discussions with creditors. By way of background, in general, we remind our readers that DIP financing is typically “put into play” after out-of-court resolutions fall apart. That is, if a company needs a loan, but a potential lender is unwilling to make it (due, mainly, to concerns around legal challenges), the Bankruptcy Code offers a way in which the lender can circumvent legal challenges from other creditors. This is typically done via a Chapter 11 Bankruptcy, whereby the lender(s) is granted a first priority security interest, a market/premium interest rate, approved budget, and other lender protections. Stated differently, via a Chapter 11 Bankruptcy filing, a distressed company who is unable to obtain a new loan outside of bankruptcy, may use DIP financing to get the liquidity necessary to run a sale process or finance a formal Chapter 11 restructuring. In our view, assuming SUNE is successful in acquiring DIP funding, we believe this likely shifts lower the priority of the majority of their capital structure (with equity holders the least likely to be made whole); it also suggests, as we’ve warned extensively, that SUNE’s current cash position is dire, if not completely compromised. We maintain our SELL rating and adjust our price target lower.

 

SUNE “Mum” when Asked for Comment, But Impact to US Solar Market Could Prove “Debilitating”. We reached out to SUNE regarding the validity of DW’s report, yet did not hear back. However, should SUNE be forced to liquidate projects out of its 5.5GW backlog in a Bankruptcy, the impact to US solar market project fundamentals (incl. rooftop) could be detrimental. Finally, according to DW, SUNE is seeking $300mn in new post-petition DIP liquidity.

 

Valuation. Using our sum-of-the-parts, where the key point of differentiation is our view that SUNE will develop just 1.95GW of projects in 2016 (vs. guidance of 3.3-3.7GW), our 2016 year-end price target adjusts lower to $0.22/shr (85% downside from yesterday’s closing price) vs. $0.39/shr prior – due to lower TERP/GLBL shr prices.

Not pretty…


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Do Teenage Girl Scouts Really Require Adult Supervision While Selling Cookies?

Girl ScoutsAt first I read these official Girl Scout Safety Tips as saying girls between the ages of 6 and 12 must be supervised by an adult while they sell cookies door to door. But that’s not what it says: the site recommends adult supervision for girls in grades 6 through 12. 

According to Tip #4: 

Adults must accompany Girl Scout Daisies, Brownies, and Juniors when they are taking orders, selling, or delivering product. Girls grades 6–12 must be supervised by an adult when selling door-to-door and must never sell alone. Adults should be present at a cookie booth in any public place at all times. 

A high school senior in the company of another high school senior is not considered ready to knock on a neighbor’s door, or even stand outside the local supermarket selling cookies? Really? 

I thought maybe this was a typo, as elsewhere the rules say that girls must never sell at night unless accompanied by an adult. This seemed to suggest that sometimes, in the protective light of day, they can sell without an adult. But then I found another official Scout site that reiterated even Girl Scout “Cadettes, Seniors, and Ambassadors” (middle-through-high school age girls) can’t sell door to door without an adult. 

And we wonder why college kids seem so fragile as of late. Could it be because we officially treat them like babies right up until the day they arrived on campus? It’s like expecting a person who has worn socks and shoes his entire life to walk barefoot through the woods. 

The idea that selling cookies this way builds the skills “essential to leadership, success, and life” seems woefully delusional. We are confusing young people into thinking they are always threatened unless there’s a grown-up keeping the terrifying world at bay. 

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Prominent Hedge Fund Luxor Capital Warns Redeeming Investors Will Be “Gated” After Sharp Losses

About a decade ago, Christian Leone’s Luxor Capital was one of the biggest brand names in the industry, and alongside Harbinger and DB Zwirn, every trader and analyst on Wall Street wanted to work there. Since then things have changed. According to Reuters, Luxor, which had $3.8 billion under management at last check, “has been losing money for months” and on Monday it surprised investors when it announced it would “not be returning exiting investors cash in full, keeping a portion locked up until some illiquid investments can be sold.”

Call it the latest hedge fund “gate”, only unlike some prominent debt focused names, this one is only partial: “instead of returning all exiting clients’ assets in cash, investors will receive 88 percent of their money back while 12 percent of the investments will be held in a so-called special purpose vehicle, Luxor’s founder, Christian Leone, wrote in a letter.”

The announcement comes before a critical March 31 redemption deadline and aims to treat all investors “fairly,” the letter said.

For those investors in the Fund that have submitted withdrawal requests for March 31, 2016 and for subsequent withdrawal dates, we will transfer a pro rata share of the applicable assets into a special purpose vehicle (SPV),” Leone wrote.

Client subject to the partial gate will be those who asked to get their money out on April 1 and July 1 and as a result; instead of getting all cash they will see a portion of their money put into the SPV and the fund will not charge any fees on these assets.

As Reuters reminds us (for those who have forgotten the gating junk bond funds of late 2015), “special purpose vehicles and side pockets are permitted at hedge funds but they are often viewed as a last resort that sour investors, and they have not been widely used since the 2008 financial crisis when many hedge funds posted heavy losses. But consultants have said that if illiquid positions become large, then it is prudent to segregate them and not charge fees until gains are realized.”

More form Reuters:

After sending the letter, Leone held a brief conference call with investors where he identified the four illiquid securities being put into the special purpose vehicle. Together they make up 12 percent of the portfolio, he said.

 

They include food delivery service Delivery Hero, which Leone said makes up more than half of the exposure and has seen a “multifold appreciation since we initially made the investment.” Additionally private equity investments in online food ordering service Foodpanda and drilling company Ascent Resources are in the SPV as well as preferred stock of Altisource Asset Management.

And while we are happy that these investments appear to have appreciated, they are rather useless if they are completely illiquid.

Leone told investors that clients have redeemed roughly 10 percent of their money in the first quarter and that redemptions requests are expected to be similar in the second quarter.

Last year, the fund saw investors redeem roughly 8 percent of their money from Luxor, a number that is roughly in line with what investors have done every year.

This year it is taking preemptive measures against what it knows will be even more redemptions and gating in advance.

As noted above, Luxor had been a popular fund in the hedge fund industry, gaining recommendations from such influential industry consultants as Cliffwater LLC, which advises on $56 billion in alternative assets invested by public and private pension funds as well as endowments and other big investors. But in 2015 it lost 19.2 percent when the average fund lost about 1 percent and it started 2016 with a 5.2 percent loss in January. This unnerved some clients, including Rhode Island’s state pension fund, which gave Luxor $50 million to invest in 2014, to exit. Last week its investment committee voted to pull its money out at the end of June and the fund told Reuters that it expected to receive $35 million back.

Luxor did not say when it expects to return the rest, saying only “We will continue to actively manage the assets held by the SPV until we can liquidate them in an orderly manner.”


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Divorce-Law Reforms Pass Florida Legislature, But Women’s and Lawyer’s Groups Urge Governor to Veto

Florida lawmakers are attempting to reform the state’s divorce laws, but they face opposition from the state bar association and women’s advocacy groups. A bill that recently cleared the state legislature and is headed to Republican Gov. Rick Scott would enact a slew of alimony and child-custody law reforms, including ending permanent alimony, providing judges with a new formula to use in determining alimony payments agreements if a receiving partner starts making more money or gets a new “supportive” spouse, and declaring that all child-custody decisions should start with a presumption of equal custody.

The measure, Senate Bill (SB) 668, is similar to alimony-law reforms vetoed by Scott in 2014. But the wording of that bill could have allowed the retroactive altering of existing alimony settlements; the new proposal has corrected this. It’s a child custody section of the measure that is now causing trouble. The Florida Bar Association’s Family Law Section opposes the establishment of any baseline legal presumption in custody cases. It’s “urging the governor to veto Senate Bill 668 because on several levels it’s problematic,” Maria Gonzalez, chair of the Family Law Section, told the Sarasota Herald Tribune.

“It does not serve the best interest of the children, any presumption,” she said. 

[…] Gonzalez said the lawyers object to another provision that requires a judge to file written findings on the child-sharing plan. She said such findings could result in public court records on the intimate details of family life.

“All kinds of very specific, detailed findings will now unfortunately have to be included in a final judgment,” Gonzalez said. “And that is detrimental to families. It’s not in the best interest of children to have a final judgment air all of the family dynamics in written findings.”

Advocates of the reforms say family lawyers’ worries are unfounded. Despite the presumption of equal custody, judges will still have discretion to deviate from this based on array of individual circumstances.  

“Behind-the-scenes lobbying is expected to be heavy on Scott’s final decision,” the Herald Tribune reports

The Florida chapter of the National Organization for Women (NOW) has also been opposing the divorce-law reforms, calling them “anti-family” and “bad for Florida women.” In a Facebook post urging people to get in touch with the governor’s office to oppose SB 668, Florida NOW called the custody-sharing part of the reform package an “egregious injustice.” 

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Frontrunning: March 29

  • Headline of the day: Oil prices fall as investors’ faith in rally wanes (Reuters)
  • Europe shares, dollar gain as investors look to Yellen (Reuters)
  • Chinese Bidder for Starwood Has Mysterious Ownership Structure (WSJ)
  • Germany wants refugees to integrate or lose residency rights (Reuters)
  • BlackRock Joins Pimco Warning Investors to Seek Inflation Hedge (BBG)
  • Goldman Sachs and Bear Stearns: A Financial-Crisis Mystery Is Solved (WSJ)
  • Contract Workforce Outpaces Growth in Silicon-Valley Style ‘Gig’ Jobs  (WSJ)
  • Hugh Hendry has a friend: China Bull Who Beat 99% of All Bond Funds Says Yuan Drop Is Over (BBG)
  • Obama says journalists partly to blame for tone of presidential race (Reuters)
  • Newt Gingrich: Wives spat is Trump’s ‘wake-up call’ (Politico)
  • Europe’s Higher-Yielding Bonds Benefit as ECB Prepares QE Boost (BBG)
  • Brazil party set to abandon Rousseff, making impeachment more likely (Reuters)
  • Under the Hood of Japan’s Jobs Data: Part-Timers on Low Pay (BBG)
  • Filed Your Taxes? Good. (Or Is It?) (BBG)
  • For banks, ECB policy experiment opens north-south divide (Reuters)
  • Once-Secret Pentagon Agency Asks Industry to Help Find New Ideas (BBG)
  • Lenders ‘Freaking Out’ Over London Luxury Home Woes (BBG)
  • Japan public divided as laws easing limits on military take effect (Reuters)
  • Banker Accused of $25 Million Fraud Arose From a Gilded Legacy (BBG)
  • Fed’s Williams Sees Gradual Hikes as U.S. Economy Stays on Track (BBG)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

– The U.S. government said Monday it had cracked a terrorist’s iPhone without Apple Inc’s help and is seeking to drop its legal case to force the tech giant to unlock the device. (http://on.wsj.com/1RCcaK2)

– Prosecutors charged former Blackstone Group LP executive Andrew Caspersen, most recently an executive at Park Hill, with stealing $25 million from investors and scheming to defraud investors of $70 million more.(http://on.wsj.com/1UqsfGc)

– Low-fare startup Virgin America Inc may soon have a new owner. Takeover offers from two other U.S. airlines – JetBlue Airways Corp and Alaska Air Group Inc – are due by the end of the week, according to a person familiar with the matter, in what could signal the latest wave of consolidation in the industry. (http://on.wsj.com/1UrgAqw)

– A study by researchers at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai showed that results for cholesterol tests done by Theranos Inc differed enough from the two largest laboratory companies in the U.S. that they could throw off doctors’ medical decisions. (http://on.wsj.com/1UxKrxU)

– Yahoo Inc has given potential suitors two weeks to submit preliminary bids for its core Web business and Asian assets, according to people familiar with the matter. (http://on.wsj.com/1VQGCDh)

 

FT

*I Squared Capital is buying Irish energy firm Viridian Group Plc in a transaction worth 1 billion euros ($1.12 billion), to gain entry as a contender into the dynamic UK energy market.(http://bit.ly/1XZerQZ)

*Education Secretary Nicky Morgan, a supporter of the campaign for Britain to remain in the EU, will say in a speech that young people should speak out in favour of the EU and convince their elders against Britain’s exit. (http://bit.ly/1VQDg2R)

*The FBI has abandoned its bid to force access Apple Inc’s to help it break into the San Bernardino shooter’s iPhone after it found a way to access the device’s data without the company’s help. (http://bit.ly/1XZdvvU)

*The Ministry of Defence on Monday awarded contracts of service to BAE Systems Plc, Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc and Babcock International Group Plc worth 372 million pounds to maintain and upgrade the Hawk jets used by the Royal Air Force and Royal Navy. (http://bit.ly/1VQDoPV)

 

NYT

– The Justice Department said on Monday that it had found a way to unlock an iPhone without help from Apple, allowing the agency to withdraw its legal effort to compel the tech company to assist in a mass-shooting investigation. (http://nyti.ms/25t5IvW)

– A federal judge in San Juan on Monday threw out a new tax that Puerto Rico had tried to impose on the American retailing giant Walmart, calling it unlawful. (http://nyti.ms/1UytSBU)

– On Monday, federal prosecutors charged Andrew Caspersen, a Wall Street executive, in a criminal complaint with securities and wire fraud in what they called a “brazen” scheme to defraud investors – including a foundation affiliated with a major New York hedge fund – of up to $95 million. (http://nyti.ms/1LVPyot)

– Pandora Media replaced Chief Executive Brian McAndrews with Tim Westergren, a co-founder of Pandora and its former chief strategy officer. (http://nyti.ms/25tvmkp)

– Dell has agreed to sell its Perot Systems subsidiary, which provides information technology services to hospitals and governments, to the Japanese technology company NTT Data for almost $3.1 billion. (http://nyti.ms/1qcJVIQ)

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

** Gareth Joyce, president of Mercedes-Benz Canada Inc, has resigned after less than three months on the job. (http://bit.ly/1pHazsM)

** Canadian Craigslist rival VarageSale’s Chief executive, Carl Mercier, said on Monday that he was promoting Andrew Sider to CEO, while he would take on the job of chief product officer. (http://bit.ly/1pHb4CY)

** Sick days are costing Ontario school boards C$1 billion ($758.90 million) a year, according to a report by School Boards’ Co-operative Inc. (http://bit.ly/1pHbjho)

NATIONAL POST

** Canadian miner Columbus Gold Corp launched a proxy fight against Eastmain Resources Inc on Monday. (http://bit.ly/1pHbNEn)

** In his zeal to investigate reports of rampant harassment in the workplace, RCMP Commissioner Bob Paulson was formally accused of being a bully. The 2012 allegation prompted the then public safety minister Steven Blaney to probe Paulson’s conduct and force the commissioner to apologize for exercising “bad judgment.” (http://bit.ly/1UStrlq)

 

Britain

The Times

– ConocoPhillips is drawing up plans to shut down one of the North Sea’s biggest gas pipeline systems in a move that threatens to knock out 10 percent of the UK’s gas capacity and a string of active fields. (http://thetim.es/1Si9DlE)

– A multimillion-pound Revenue & Customs publicity campaign to stamp out tax evasion and avoidance used an advertising agency ultimately controlled in an offshore haven. HMRC spent more than 6 million pounds($8.55 million)on the campaigns, including 300,000 pounds specifically on offshore evasion. (http://thetim.es/1SiaSRG)

The Guardian

– The cost of a first class stamp will rise to 64p this week, taking the price increase to 100 percent over the past decade. First class stamp prices are rising by 1p, while a second class stamp will rise by the same amount to 55p. (http://bit.ly/1Si9wX9)

– Britain’s manufacturers are struggling to recruit skilled workers and keep pace with global technology, according to business group EEF’s report that criticises the government for lack of support. (http://bit.ly/1SiaIdg)

The Telegraph

– CEO of the takeover target Premier Foods Plc, Gavin Darby, has claimed a rival bidder could challenge its American suitor McCormick, as he defended the company’s heavily criticised decision to reject a 60p per share offer. (http://bit.ly/1Si9Mpd)

– More than 9000 jobs in Port Talbot hang in the balance as crunch talks begin at Tata Steel Ltd in India over the Welsh site’s future. Fears are rife among workers that the Indian multinational may pull the plug on the loss-making plant. (http://bit.ly/1Siai6x)

Sky News

– Notonthehighstreet, an online marketplace, has been approached by a number of new investors about injecting funds into the business to allow it to accelerate its expansion. (http://bit.ly/1Si9m22)

The Independent

– UK think tank Smith Institute, found that two-thirds of employees say they are working longer than two years ago, but only 10 percent believe they are more productive. A quarter of staff believed their productivity had declined over the period. (http://ind.pn/1Si9QW3)

 


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Scripps College Student Body President Says ‘Trump 2016’ Whiteboard Message Is ‘Intentional Violence’

CryHere we go again: a Mexican-American student at Scripps College woke up to find that someone had scrawled “Trump 2016” on her white board. (I gather that the board is on her dorm room door.) The student-government president has condemned the messages as “intentional violence” and vowed to punish the perpetrator. 

Minjoo Kim is student body president of the private women’s college in Claremont, California. On Saturday, she sent a campus-wide email alerting fellow students to the whiteboard incident and informing them of the counselling and bias-reporting services available to the traumatized. 

“This racist act is completely unacceptable,” wrote Kim, according to Inside Higher Ed. “Regardless of your political party, this intentional violence committed directly to a student of color proves to be another testament that racism continues to be an undeniable problem and alarming threat on our campuses. If you consider yourself an ally, talk to your friends and peers about racism and continue to educate yourselves on what you can do to combat racism inside and outside of Scripps and the greater 5Cs. Campus Safety has been notified and we hope to find the person responsible so they can be held accountable for their actions.” 

At least the person who chalked “Trump 2016” all over Emory University’s campus did indeed violate some rules. The same cannot be said of the responsible party at Scripps. Whiteboards are explicitly for leaving messages. The Mexican-American student might not have liked the message, but on its face, it isn’t offensive and doesn’t constitute harassment. It certainly isn’t violence, intentional or otherwise. (Perhaps it was a joke!) 

If Scripps students want to talk their friends about racism, that’s fine. And if this specific student doesn’t like what people write on her whiteboard, maybe she should take it down. There is no reason for the college to investigate the matter and there is certainly no reason to discipline the perpetrator. 

I understand that a lot of college students don’t like Donald Trump. I don’t like him, either. But many of his supporters are particularly enthusiastic about his willingness to violate political correctness—to say the unsayable, regardless of whether it’s offensive. It is not wise to counter this narrative by feeding into it: by becoming even more hysterically offended by the mere utterance of his name. How can we stop Trump if everyone who loathes him cries “microaggression” and runs screaming for their lives each time they encounter a “Trump 2016” sign? 

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Government’s War on the Powerless: New at Reason

The cops raided J.D. Tuccille’s wife’s pediatric practice last week, looking for a fugitive, he writes:

Actually, let’s put the word “fugitive” in quotes. The story is an eye-opening tale in itself. It’s also a glimpse at how business-as-usual in courts and cop shops around the country screws with people’s lives and alienates the public from those who are allegedly their protectors.

My wife, Dr. Wendy Tuccille, was on her way to the office in Cottonwood, Arizona, when her phone rang. Frantic staff called to tell her that the clinic’s parking lot was full of cops, there to arrest one of her employees, C.H. (it’s a small town so we’ll stick with her initials), on an outstanding warrant.

When my wife arrived she found a gaggle of cops—12 to 15 she told me, some in battle jammies—in plain view at the rear corner of the building. The parking lot was full of police vehicles, in sight of families and children arriving to be seen and treated.

View this article.

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Trump’s Support Nears 50% Among Republicans As Countdown To Convention Continues

Donald Trump has long taunted the media – and specifically Fox’s “crazy Megyn” Kelly – for failing to understand “math.”

The problem, Trump says, is that it isn’t fair to criticize him for not polling higher than 50% when the GOP field is so crowded. In fact, the billionaire has said, it’s a small miracle he’s been able to garner the amount of support he has over the past nine months given that at one point, there were 17 Republican candidates. Implicit in that argument is the contention that once the field narrows, Trump will command an even larger lead in the polls.

As we head into the Wisconsin primary on April 5, it would appear that Trump was indeed correct. The latest NBC/SurveyMonkey weekly tracking poll shows Trump nearing the 50% threshold as the preferred candidate among registered Republicans nationwide.

“With just three candidates left in the Republican primary race, Donald Trump now holds 48 percent support of registered Republicans and Republican-leaners,” NBC writes. “This is more than 20 points higher than his second-place competitor, Ted Cruz — who now enjoys 27 percent support. John Kasich got a boost of 2 points this week and holds third place with 18 percent support.”

As those who have followed the GOP circus are no doubt aware, the Republican establishment effectively exited the race with Marco Rubio. There’s some begrudging, lukewarm support for Ted Cruz, but make no mistake, were it not for Trump, the GOP would sooner not run a candidate at all then support Cruz. That is, he’s just about the furthest thing from “mainstream” you can get without going … well, without going full-Donald.

Indeed, it’s not even clear that the establishment is prepared to accept Cruz as the nominee even if he somehow manages to steal the nomination from Trump at the convention in July. “If we don’t have a nominee who can win on the first ballot, I’m for none of the above,” former House Speaker John Boehner said. “They all had a chance to win. None of them won. So I’m for none of the above.” In other words, the powers that be in the party may well try to install Paul Ryan or Mitt Romney and send the “outsiders” home with nothing but fond memories of the campaign trail.

In any event, NBC also polled registered Republicans and Republican-leaners on the contested convention. Here’s what they said:

There you have it. Nearly 90% of Trump supporters say he shouldn’t have to abide by the rules that govern the nomination. Unfortunately, as we reported on Monday, they won’t be able to bring their guns to Cleveland to demand the GOP nod.


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