Tag: news

Another week, another mid-air mishap for a Boeing plane. This time, a 747-400 carrying 468 passengers from Indonesia to Saudi Arabia had to make an emergency landing immediately after takeoff when one of the plane’s four engines erupted in a fireball.

“The decision was made by the pilot in command immediately after takeoff, considering engine problems that required further examination after sparks of fire were observed in one of the engines,” Garuda Indonesia president director Irfan Setiaputra wrote in a statement obtained by the local media outlet The Jakarta Post. 

Garuda-1105 flight to Madinah, a city in western Saudi Arabia, was departing from the Indonesian city of Makassar on Wednesday when, as soon as the plane achieved rotation speed and lifted off the runway, a giant fireball erupted from one of the plane’s engines. 

Garuda Indonesia 747-412 returns safely to Makassar Airport in Indonesia after an engine failure during takeoff. pic.twitter.com/VibKqCQosc

— Breaking Aviation News & Videos (@aviationbrk) May 15, 2024

Here’s what happened last week with Boeing mishaps:

May 8:

• Boeing 767 Cargo Plane Crash-Landed In Turkey

May 9:

• Boeing 737 Crashes After Failed Takeoff At African Airport

May 10: 

• United Airlines Boeing 737 Makes Emergency Return To Japanese Airport After Wing Flap “Irregularity”

If you want to avoid flying in Boeing’s “death traps,” use this plane ticket booking search feature for Airbus “only” before your next trip.   

Authored by David Williams via RealClearEnergy,

Electric vehicles (EVs) may be the most subsidized product in America. Federal taxpayers shell out $7,500 every time a new eligible electric vehicle is purchased (usually by wealthy buyers). State and local taxpayers chip in an additional $1,500 for each EV purchase. Then, there’s the tens of billions of dollars “invested” by policymakers into building EV plants. Even these bank-breaking concessions aren’t enough to please the Biden administration. Recently finalized EV tax credit rules expand eligibility for the subsidy while maintaining bizarre trade sourcing rules likely to lead to further tariffs from China. It’s time for President Biden and lawmakers to ditch protectionism and finally end EV subsidies. 

From the start, President Biden’s fumbling approach to EV subsidies has harmed the economy without bolstering ecology. In 2022, the chief executive declared, “[t]hanks to American ingenuity, American engineers, American autoworkers… if you want an electric vehicle with a long range, you can buy one made in America.” Prices were already through the roof, with taxpayers being asked to shoulder these pricy purchases. Kelley Blue Book estimates that the average price of a new EV is more than $65,000, compared to $48,000 for gas-powered cars. Biden imposed requirements that EVs must undergo “final assembly in North America,” contributing to even higher prices for taxpayers and consumers. 

Biden’s rules make production cost-prohibitive by restricting the foreign mineral inputs (e.g., graphite) that could go into tax credit-eligible EVs. The administration has since reversed course and allowed for a grace period for graphite sourcing. However, the new rules, “introduce a stricter test for measuring whether 50% of the vehicle’s critical minerals come from the United States or a free trade agreement partner…[requiring] automakers to more precisely account for the value added at each step of the supply chain.” The net effect of all these confusing new rules is to expand the number of vehicles eligible for EV tax credits, while increasing compliance costs. And, of course, this cost will be passed onto taxpayers and consumers. 

Instead of tethering absurd rules to a complex and costly program, the Biden administration should start from scratch and axe the tax credit. EV subsidies are showered onto the wealthiest Americans at the expense of their poorer neighbors. According to a 2023 analysis of California EV purchase patterns by the news outlet CalMatters, “Most of the median household incomes in the top 10 [zip codes with the highest share of EVs] exceed $200,000, much higher than the statewide $84,097. Typical home values in those communities exceed $3 million, according to Zillow estimates.” In comparison, “electric cars are nearly non-existent in California’s lowest income communities: only 1.4% of cars in Stockton’s 95202, where the median household income is $16,976, and 0.5% in Fresno’s 93701, where the median is $25,905. Most are plug-in hybrids, which are less expensive.” This study’s findings are consistent with earlier, multi-state surveys. A 2018 study by Dr. Wayne Winegarden of the Pacific Research Institute found, “79% of electric vehicle plug-in tax credits were claimed by households with adjusted gross incomes of greater than $100,000 per year. Households with incomes greater than $50,000 per year claimed 99% of the credits.” 

This stunning regressivity ensures that subsidies are a net-negative for ecology. Wealthy Americans primarily purchaseEVs as secondary cars, keeping them in the garage for occasional outings. EV owners are largely still using conventional cars, and there’s less-than-hoped-for substitution between gasoline and electricity. As a result, extra pollution is generated via increased EV production without corresponding decreases in driving emissions. One 2022 Harvard study suggests, “foregoing gasoline in favor of volts may actually increase, not lower, overall emissions in some cases.” This is far from the outcome envisioned by “green” activists and policymakers. 

The Biden administration and lawmakers ought to seriously rethink adding more fuel to the dumpster fire of EV subsidies. Struggling Americans shouldn’t be forced to foot the bill for these over-hyped toys for tycoons.

David Williams is the president of the Taxpayers Protection Alliance. 

Commodity trader Pierre Andurand appeared on Bloomberg’s Odd Lots to discuss his bullish bet on cocoa markets and the future direction of physical markets amid severe droughts plaguing vast farmlands in West Africa. He’s still bullish on cocoa prices, with an upside price target of $20,000 a ton later this year or next because continued droughts will spark a “massive supply shortage this year.” 

Andurand’s discussion with Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal comes after cocoa prices had two of the largest single daily declines ever in recent weeks as liquidity evaporated from the market. 

• Cocoa Crash Unfolds As “Liquidity Evaporates”
• Cocoa Market Hit With Second Crash In Weeks As Liquidity Evaporates

And Rabobank analyst Paul Joules told clients the bull rally has likely peaked. 

• After Cocoa Crash, Rabobank Says Bull Rally Likely Peaked

However, Andurand, founder of Andurand Capital Management LLP, known for his oil and energy trades, told the Odd Lots hosts that his bullish cocoa bets from March paid off when prices skyrocketed north of $12,000. He believes there is potential for further upside as extreme global deficits of the bean loom. 

“Basically, we have a massive supply shortage this year. I mean, we see production down 17% relative to last year. Most analysts out there have it down 11%, but that’s because they tend to be very conservative. You know, they have lots of clients and they don’t want to to worry the world, so they come with relatively conservative estimates,” he explained, adding, “We’re in a situation where we might actually run out of inventories completely.”

Andurand continued, “This year we think we will end up with a with an inventory-to-grinding ratio — so inventory at the end of the season — of 21%.” 

“For the last 10 years, we’ve been between 35% and 40%. Roughly at the previous peak in 1977, we were at 19%,” he said.

The International Cocoa Organization tracks inventories of unprocessed cocoa, which can serve as a cushion when there’s a shortfall in supply. However, the lower the inventory-to-grinding ratio drops, the less of a buffer there is. When the stock-to-grinding ratio crashed in 1977, cocoa prices soared to $5,500, or on an inflation-adjusted basis today, $28,000. 

Andurand warned the ratio could collapse to as low as 13%, adding, “That’s when you really have a real shortage of cocoa beans. You can’t get it. And that’s when the price can really explode.”

Authored by Charles Bell via RealClear Wire,

Overshadowed by Hamas’s attack on Israel, the release of the congressionally mandated Strategic Posture Commission (SPC) report heralded the arrival of an American nuclear Zeitenwende – a sea change setting us on a new course. By issuing consensus recommendations for significant changes to the size and composition of the deployed nuclear forces of the United States, the bi-partisan members of the SPC signaled that we have crossed the Rubicon from the post-Cold war nuclear order to the terra incognita of two peer nuclear adversaries’ intent on brandishing their growing nuclear weapons capabilities to overthrow the rules-based international order.  The SPC commissioners warn that this “new global environment is fundamentally different than anything experienced in the past,” constituting “an existential challenge for which the United States is ill prepared, unless its leaders make decisions now to adjust the U.S. strategic posture.”

It would be difficult to exaggerate the extent to which the SPC’s consensus conclusions have reoriented the nuclear debate, shifting the focus away from how to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in U.S. strategy and towards a focus on how to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in the strategies of our adversaries (by building a nuclear posture that will credibly deter them). In doing so on a bi-partisan basis and by articulating comprehensive recommendations to address “this unprecedented two peer threat,” the SPC commissioners can legitimately lay claim to having produced the most important national security document of the post-Cold war era.

Nevertheless, the SPC’s recommendations have not received the widespread, public attention that they urgently require. This inattention needs to be quickly remedied, lest we fail to garner the essential public support necessary to ensure the United States creates a strategic posture capable of preventing great power military conflict.

One of the many strengths of the SPC report is to remind us of a salient reality that we too often lost sight of during the long period of great power geopolitical quiescence following the end of the Cold war: the rules-based internal order is, at its core, predicated on the strength of the U.S. strategic posture – and especially the credibility of the U.S. extended nuclear deterrent. Thus, a failure to ensure that the U.S. nuclear deterrent remains credible is likely to cause the unraveling of our alliances, a nuclear “proliferation cascade,” and the demise of the international order that has kept the peace for over three quarters of a century.

The SPC emphatically states that allowing this to happen “is not an option.” Instead, the commissioners argue that “[m]odifications to both strategic nuclear forces and theater nuclear forces are urgently necessary,” particularly considering the “increased role of nuclear weapons in the strategies and tactics of our adversaries.”

Accordingly, the SPC recommends increasing the numbers of deployed strategic nuclear weapons in the land, air, and sea legs of the U.S. strategic triad by the placing more nuclear warheads on ICBMs and SLBMs and producing more nuclear-armed, air-launched cruise missiles.  Also recommended is rendering U.S. strategic forces more survivable by deploying mobile ICBMs, placing a portion of the bomber fleet on alert, and increasing the number of ballistic missile submarines.

The SPC commissioners place particular emphasis on the need to enhance U.S. theater nuclear capabilities, an imperative rendered even more urgent because “China is adopting an expanded theater nuclear war-fighting role” and in light of “Russia’s increasing reliance on nuclear weapons…” In response, the SPC recommends that “U.S. theater nuclear forces should be urgently modified in order to: Provide the President a range of military effective nuclear response options to deter or counter Chinese of Russian limited use in theater.” These changes in the U.S. theater nuclear posture are deemed essential if the U.S. is to maintain the flexible response options required to credibly extend nuclear deterrence to our allies.

Given the significance that the SPC attaches to maintaining the credibility of the U.S. extended nuclear deterrent, it is important to emphasize the degree to which the problem of ensuring the credibility of the U.S. extended nuclear deterrent was a vexing conundrum for U.S. strategists throughout the Cold War, particularly as the Soviet Union became a true peer nuclear power with an assured second-strike capability that negated U.S. nuclear superiority.

In the very near future, the U.S. will confront the even more difficult problem of having to extend nuclear deterrence to our allies in the face of not one, but two, peer nuclear powers. In this future, enhanced theater nuclear forces, along with more robust strategic nuclear forces, will be critical to the U.S.’s ability to deter opportunistic – or planned simultaneous – aggression in two theaters and “to compensate for any conventional shortfall in U.S. and allied non-nuclear capabilities.”  Enhanced U.S. nuclear capabilities are critical to reassuring our allies, who “perceive that the risk of Russian and Chinese aggression and potential nuclear employment has increased; and thus, U.S. nuclear and conventional capabilities are increasingly important for credible extended deterrence.”

The SPC’s emphasis on the importance of both nuclear and conventional forces points to yet another strength of the SPC, which is to embed the imperative of strengthening the U.S. nuclear posture within the broader imperative of strengthening all aspects of the U.S. strategic posture from cyber to space to missile defense – and integrating these elements of deterrence into a whole of government approach.  At the same time, the SPC emphasizes that the “U.S. nuclear posture composes the foundation of U.S. military strength, and therefore the foundation of the U.S. strategic posture.”  No matter how capable U.S. conventional forces may be, if the U.S. does not deploy nuclear forces capable of credibly deterring adversary use of nuclear weapons, we run the risk of adversaries believing that they can gain advantage by using nuclear weapons in a conventional conflict that they are losing.

The overriding challenge before the United States is how to implement the SPC’s recommendations. This will require bringing to the attention of the broader body politic that, in the words of the SPC, the “new global environment is fundamentally different than anything experienced in the past, even in the darkest days of the Cold War.” It is an environment in which 35 years of U.S. nuclear restraint has gone unreciprocated; in which “China is pursuing a nuclear force build-up on a scale and pace unseen since the U.S.-Soviet nuclear arms race” (but this time without the U.S. racing); in which Russia continues to build on its advantage in theater nuclear forces while issuing explicit nuclear threats; and in which our allies fear that U.S. extended nuclear guarantees to their security are eroding. 

Given this “dramatic change in the overall strategic setting,” we must recall that deterrence does not supply its own efficacy; it must be tailored “to decisively influence the unique decision calculus of each nuclear-armed adversary.”  Building a strategic posture capable of deterring war will not be cheap; but it would be “far more expensive to fight such a war.”  Or as former Secretary of Defense Mattis pithily remarked: “America can afford survival.”

If there is a dominant theme that pervades the SPC, it is a palpable sense of alarm: “The challenges are unmistakable; the problems are urgent; the steps are needed now.” We ignore the SPC’s cri de coeur at our peril.

Charles Ball served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Threat Reduction and Arms Control from 2018-2021 and is a retired Reserve Naval Intelligence Officer. The views expressed are solely his own.

Authored by Ryan Morgan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Federal prosecutors have charged a recently discharged U.S. Marine with making threats to attack white people in a mass shooting.

On Monday, the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of New Jersey announced the arrest of Joshua Cobb, 23, on a single-count indictment of transmitting an interstate threat over the internet. According to a complaint filed in the case, Mr. Cobb authored a social media post on Dec. 17, 2022, indicating his interest in inflicting mayhem “on the white community.”

The author of the Dec. 17, 2022, social media post states, “I want to cause mayhem on the white community. The reason i specifically want to target white people is because as a black male, they will NEVER understand my struggles.”

The post’s author goes on to state he has already begun planning the attack, which he intended to carry out somewhere in New Jersey at some point in 2023, though he had not chosen an exact time.

“I have not chosen a exact date but I am going to be sure it is close to an important holiday to their race. I have a location in mind already which I have frequented for the past year and I am certain nobody there is armed to be able to stop me from spraying them to the ground,” the suspect’s social media post continues. “I have already acquired 2 of the 4 firearms I plan to use for my attack, and I also know my entry and exit points already after the mayhem.”

The social media post was published under the handle “NearbyUserl0l.” Investigators determined that social media activity was associated with an internet protocol (IP) address matching the Trenton, New Jersey residence in which Mr. Cobb resided at the time.

Suspect Planned to ‘Continue Training’ For Attack

Federal prosecutors allege Mr. Cobb made subsequent posts on a second social media platform in the Spring of 2023, expressing homicidal ideations. A May 2023 social media post states, “Imagine the rush you’d feel while shooting some [expletive] up. Probably could get literally high off the adrenaline alone. I’d probably OD on my own adrenaline after the 10th body goes down.” Another May 2023 post states, “I hope I do progress into a serial killer because I [expletive] hate life man… But one day everyone will suffer. I promise I will make everyone feel my [expletive] pain. My deep, sincere, raw, & sharp pain.” Prosecutors say Mr. Cobb’s posts also indicated a plan to “continue training and buying more ammunition” until the day he could carry out his attack.

Mr. Cobb joined the U.S. Marine Corps and entered basic training in June 2023. The Marine trainee completed his basic training in September and was given a period of post-basic leave. He arrived at another duty station, the Marine Corps Air-Ground Combat Center Twentynine Palms (Twentynine Palms), in California in February of this year.

Investigators eventually caught up with Mr. Cobb last month while he was still stationed at Twentynine Palms. They seized and searched his phone, finding additional notes he allegedly made in May 2023 expressing further homicidal ideations.

Suspect Discussed Attack Ideas in FBI Interview

The federal complaint indicates that FBI agents interviewed Mr. Cobb at the Marine Corps in April after they had seized his phone. The complaint states that during his interview, Mr. Cobb described to FBI agents his ideas for carrying out mass shootings, including one idea he had to shoot up a gym called New Jersey Strong, believing he could carry out the attack at the gym’s peak hours and then easily escape. Mr. Cobb described a second idea of attacking a grocery store because those are “almost always crowded.”

Mr. Cobb allegedly told FBI agents he specifically thought of targeting an Aldi’s grocery store in Robbinsville, New Jersey, “cause it was like one of them grocery stores like where you just see all these [expletive] rich-[expletive] white people.”

Mr. Cobb allegedly told FBI agents a third idea he had was to simply “go into like a rich white area and just like start shooting.”

During the April interview, Mr. Cobb allegedly suggested an affinity for the suspects in the 2018 Parkland High School shooting in Florida and the 2022 shooting at a supermarket in Buffalo, New York. In the latter of those two shootings, federal prosecutors have alleged the shooter posted a manifesto expressing a desire to specifically target a black community. Despite their differing racial motives, Mr. Cobb said he “liked the element of surprise and style” of the 2022 Buffalo supermarket attack.

Mr. Cobb was discharged from the Marine Corps sometime after his April interview with the FBI.

NTD News reached out to a pair of public defenders assigned to Mr. Cobb’s case for comment, but they did not respond by press time.

Mr. Cobb faces a maximum penalty of five years in prison and a $250,000 fine if convicted.

From NTD News

A team of Goldman analysts led by Jan Hatzius found that domestic migration trends from big cities continued through mid-2023. This trend, initially sparked by virus fears and remote working, was further fueled by rising violent crime in urban areas. People sought peace and quiet, moving to suburbia and rural areas for more land and larger homes.    

“The recent surge in immigration into the US is now well known. But newly released county-level population estimates from the Census reveal another major migration trend: domestic emigration from large cities,” Hatzius told clients on Wednesday.

Goldamn’s chief economist said – that most cities – with populations over a million – “experienced population growth nearly 1% below the pre-pandemic trend over 2019-2023 cumulatively, while all but the most rural counties experienced above-trend population growth.” 

Here’s more color on the findings: 

First, the most urban Tier 1 counties, which include cities such as Kansas City, New Orleans, and Cleveland, experienced population growth nearly 1pp below the pre-pandemic trend over 2019-2023 cumulatively, while counties in Tiers 2-7, which include cities such as Ann Arbor in Tier 2, Santa Fe in Tier 3, and Juneau in Tier 5, experienced population growth 0.4pp above the pre-pandemic trends on average over that period (Exhibit 1).

The rise of remote and hybrid work arrangements made it easier for workers to relocate away from offices that might have tied them to city centers prior to the pandemic. We noted previously that the share of US workers working from home at least part of the week peaked at 47% at the height of the pandemic and has now stabilized at around 20-25%, well above the pre-pandemic average of 2-3%.

Hatzius’ team also revealed that government county-level population data showed domestic migrants were leaving big cities in droves (about 750k in 2021, 650k in 2022, and 550k in 2023). More than half of them moved to areas between 250k to 1 million. This outflow comes as the Biden administration facilitated the greatest illegal alien invasion this nation has ever seen, piling migrants into crime-ridden progressive cities.

Given the strong positive population trends outside large cities, Hatzius’ team determined housing markets were hotter in suburbia: 

“Stronger population growth outside the Tier 1 counties has meant somewhat faster house price appreciation relative to pre-pandemic trends compared to the Tier 1 counties.”

The bad news is that housing prices in suburbia are unlikely to return to pre-Covid levels. 

Authored by Zachary Steiber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A federal judge has dismissed a lawsuit claiming that Wisconsin’s requirement for witnesses to sign for absentee voters clashes with federal law.

The claims by plaintiffs, four voters represented by Democrat firm Elias Law Group, are based on faulty interpretations of the law, according to U.S. District Judge James Peterson.

The challengers said the Voting Rights Act unilaterally bars requiring absentee voters to prove their qualifications, making the Wisconsin requirement illegal. The act states in part that “no citizen shall be denied, because of his failure to comply with any test or device, the right to vote in any federal, state, or local election conducted in any state or political subdivision of a state.” It defines “test or device,” in part, as any requirement that makes a person “prove his qualifications by the voucher of registered voters or members of any other class.”

However, that interpretation of the federal law is not correct, Judge Peterson said in his May 9 ruling.

“Plaintiffs say that Wisconsin law requires the witness to do more than ensure that the voter followed the proper procedure in preparing the ballot; rather, the witness must also certify that the voter is eligible to vote,” he said. “But that interpretation is inconsistent with the text and purpose of the statute, and it is inconsistent with how the law has been interpreted since it was enacted. Even the plaintiffs themselves do not say in their declarations that they believe they need to find a witness who can certify their qualifications to vote.”

In Wisconsin, any qualified voter who is “unable or unwilling” to vote in person is eligible for an absentee ballot. The law states that among requirements to vote by mail, another adult must observe the voter filling out the ballot and signing a statement that reads, in part, that “the above statements are true and the voting procedure was executed as there stated.”

As the “above statements” include the attestation from the voter that he or she is a resident of Wisconsin and entitled to vote in the state, plaintiffs said the requirement is illegal under federal law.

However, government officials argued that the witnesses only confirm the second part of the statements, which states that the voter certifies that he or she showed the enclosed ballot to the witness and that he or she marked the ballot and placed it in the envelope without assistance.

“If defendants are correct, there would be no violation of the Voting Rights Act. As other courts have held, a witness does not vouch for a voter’s qualifications by simply confirming with a signature what he or she observed,” said Judge Peterson, an appointee of former President Barack Obama.

He said that the phrase “the above statements” is ambiguous but that the plaintiffs’ interpretation “simply does not make any sense.”

If they were correct, “every witness would have to determine the voter’s age, residence, citizenship, criminal history, whether the voter is unable or unwilling to vote in person, whether the voter has voted at another location or is planning to do so, whether the voter is capable of understanding the objective of the voting process, whether the voter is under a guardianship, and, if so, whether a court has determined that the voter is competent,” according to Judge Peterson.

“If plaintiffs’ interpretation were correct, it would mean that countless absentee ballots over decades were invalid because the witness certified that the voter was qualified to vote and met the other requirements in the first voter certification, even though the witness had no basis for such a certification,” he said.

The challengers never provided evidence of any witnesses being penalized for not confirming a voter’s qualifications, and the Wisconsin Elections Commission’s guidance does not mention witnesses taking any steps to confirm voters are eligible to vote, the ruling noted.

The lawsuit also stated that the witness requirement violates the Civil Rights Act, which bars people from “[denying] the right of any individual to vote in any election because of an error or omission on any record or paper relating to any application, registration, or other act requisite to voting, if such error or omission is not material in determining whether such individual is qualified under state law to vote in such election.”

The Wisconsin Elections Commission, the defendant, declined to comment.

The law group did not return an inquiry.

The organization Restoring Integrity and Trust in Elections, which lodged an amicus brief in support of the government in the case, welcomed the ruling.

“It’s essential that people voting by mail follow the law in doing so, and Wisconsin has implemented a witness signature requirement that helps ensure they do just that,” Derek Lyons, president of the group, said in a statement. “This case marks another example of liberal activists’ transparent and shameful efforts to co-opt important civil rights legislation for their partisan agendas.”

President Donald Trump’s former attorney Michael Cohen had his “knees chopped out” by Donald Trump’s defense attorneys in cross-examination during Trump’s ‘hush money’ trial.

Cohen was grilled by Trump attorney Todd Blanche about a pivotal phone call that connected Trump to allegations that he approved reimbursements to pay porn star Stormy Daniels during the 2016 election. In one exchange, Blanche accused Cohen of lying about speaking with Trump on the phone in October 2016 to reassure his boss that he was handling the payment to Daniels.

Blanche then confronted Cohen with text messages that contradicted the lie – revealing that Cohen in fact spoke with Trump’s bodyguard, Keith Schiller.

Trump attorney Todd Blanche grilled him about a pivotal phone call that had connected President Trump to the allegations at the center of the case. He accused Mr. Cohen of calling the former president’s bodyguard, Keith Schiller, to complain about harassing phone calls—not to disclose an update on a plan to purchase the silence of Ms. Clifford.

Mr. Cohen said that the prank calls were a part of the conversation with Mr. Schiller.

“Now your memory is that you were testifying truthfully on Tuesday, and you had enough time to update Mr. Schiller about all the problems you were having with these harassing calls?” Mr. Blanche asked him.

“I always run everything by the boss immediately,” Mr. Cohen said. “It could’ve just been me saying, ‘everything’s been taken care of, it’s been resolved.’”

“That was a lie. You did not talk to President Trump that night,” Mr. Blanche said. “You can admit it.” “No sir, I can’t,” Mr. Cohen said. “Because I’m not sure that’s accurate.”

“This jury doesn’t want to hear what you think happened,” Mr. Blanche said. –Epoch Times

Cohen appeared blindsided by the line of questioning, and wavered in his recollection of the phone call before blurting out “I believe I was telling the truth!”

Blanche then slapped Cohen around for telling Congress that he didn’t want to work in the Trump administration – only to be confronted with conversations in 2016 in which he expressed disappointment that he was overlooked for the role of Trump’s chief of staff.

Cohen also lied about seeking a pardon from Trump, for which his attorneys later had to issue a statement to correct the record.

After Cohen had his ass handed to him, CNN pundits were beside themselves.

“It was incredible…lawyers want to build a box around the witness & slam it shut–that’s what Todd Blanche did to Cohen…it was an extraordinary cross…Cohen was cornered in…a lie,” said host Anderson Cooper.

Anderson Cooper was left stunned by Trump’s attorney’s cross examination of Michael Cohen

“It was incredible…lawyers want to build a box around the witness & slam it shut–that’s what Todd Blanche did to Cohen…it was an extraordinary cross…Cohen was cornered in…a lie” pic.twitter.com/WKnKCs8TkU

— johnny maga (@_johnnymaga) May 16, 2024

The network’s top legal analyst said “I don’t think I’ve ever seen a star witness get his knees chopped out quite as clearly and dramatically as what just happened with Michael Cohen.”

CNN legal analyst: “I don’t think I’ve never seen a star cooperating witness get his knees chopped out quite as clearly and dramatically as what just happened with Michael Cohen.” pic.twitter.com/NcghETrUIJ

— MAGA War Room (@MAGAIncWarRoom) May 16, 2024

Rep. Matt Gaetz says Cohen was “dog walked through the series of lies he has told.”

The alleged “crime” by President Trump is made up!

No other American in the country would be charged with this type of crime.

I watched Michael Cohen get dog walked through the series of lies he has told. There is literally no branch of government that he has not lied to. pic.twitter.com/Fi1GpbCF13

— Rep. Matt Gaetz (@RepMattGaetz) May 16, 2024

Fin…

Authored by Salena Zito via RealClearPolitics,

NEWTON SQUARE, PA – In childhood, Tasliym Morales was always interested in civic affairs, so it was no surprise to those who knew her that as soon she turned 18, she registered to vote. What did take her family and friends aback, however, was the political party affiliation she chose.

“Republican,” she says with a broad smile.

The striking mother of six is sitting at the head table of the Delaware County Republican Party chairman’s dinner, dressed in a rich red jacket topping a paisley dress discussing her reasons for choosing the Grand Old Party when most of her peers and family – Morales is black – were Democrats.

Explaining her choice is still amusing to her. “Democrats, reporters, strategists often come to our county because of how important the vote is here in determining which way Pennsylvania will go in big elections and often assume all black women are Democrats,” she explained of the Philadelphia collar county she calls home.

“I understand why because let’s be honest, many educated black women are Democrats,” she added. “However, I think more and more people of all colors are starting to vote for what is best for their personal lives and what is best for their community. Even more importantly, people are starting to vote like the other members of the community, rather than vote one way because of the color of their skin.”

Seated across the table from Tasliym was Alfe Goodwin, a former Philadelphia police officer and U.S. Army veteran who holds a doctorate degree in public policy and is running against incumbent Democratic Rep. Mary Gay Scanlon in Pennsylvania’s 5th Congressional District.

Goodwin, whose parents labored in the civil rights movement in Philadelphia in the 1960s, said she was initially a Libertarian and became drawn to the Republican Party because of a sense of purpose she felt among fellow members.

A shift in the polls toward Donald Trump among black voters has been met largely with skepticism by the national press and dismissed by talking heads on cable news – perhaps because they don’t know any person of color in their social or professional circle who would ever consider voting Republican.

Late last month, a Gallup survey found Democrats’ lead over Republicans among black Americans had dropped by 20 percentage points in the past three years.

Muhlenberg College political science professor Chris Borick said that in a swing state like Pennsylvania where polls show a tight race between Trump and President Biden and everything is decided within the polling margin of error, “no party can afford to lose even the smallest amount of their reliable voting bloc.”

“You cannot take any of your coalition for granted, this can be a problem for Joe Biden but also Bob Casey Jr. in the Senate race,” Borick said.

Pennsylvania is a prime example. Four years ago, Biden carried more than 90% of the black vote in the state according to exit polls. Black women that year gave Biden an impressive 94% of their vote, a number that secured the 20 critical electoral votes needed for him to win the state.

Monday’s New York Times/Siena Pennsylvania poll showed some interesting nuggets; voters like Morales and Goodwin are starting to show up in the numbers.

Morales, 41, explains the generational shift among black voters has been incremental, “But it has been moving for a while,” she said. “As a woman of color, I sit in Republican spaces so they can see me, hear me, and understand me.”

The issues that drive her are no different than those of her white or Hispanic neighbors. “I don’t like my whole check going to taxes,” she said. “I hate that people cannot freely express themselves religiously without retaliation. I don’t like that tolerance is one-sided.”

Morales said the first Republican she voted for was for George W. Bush, and she did it twice. Disapproving of Sarah Palin, she did not support John McCain in 2008 but voted for Donald Trump in the 2016 election.

In 2020, she could not bring herself to vote for Biden or Trump. “I couldn’t do it again,” she said of Trump. “The crazy thing is I agree with him on a lot of issues; I just hate his deliverance and disposition.”

Although Morales was a Nikki Haley fan and is undecided about the top of the ticket, her down-ballot support for Republicans is unwavering, “Dave McCormick? Yes he has my vote.” she said of the Republican businessman who is challenging Sen. Casey.

Youngstown State University professor Paul Sracic notes that 2024 is shaping up as a very close contest that will be decided by perhaps fewer than a couple hundred thousand votes, maybe less, in a handful of states – with the two candidates’ records on the economy looming over the election.

“Voters, regardless of race, have two recent economic records to compare,” Sracic said. “The perennial question for an incumbent is ‘Are you better off than you were four years ago?’ In 2024, Trump can add to that,  ‘When I was last president…’”

At the same time, each major party is relying on a coalition of voters whom they have come to take for granted – perhaps at their peril. “If any part of that coalition were to switch sides, even in small numbers, it could change the result of the election. For example, if Republicans were to lose even a small percentage of evangelical voters, it could make a huge difference in the outcome,” Sracic said.

A similar dynamic exists for Democrats with various demographics, especially African American voters. “If we are talking about the potential voting behavior of middle-class black women, why wouldn’t we think that they might be responding to the same economic variables, and making the same comparisons, as middle-class white voters,” Sracic added.

Michele Reynolds agrees. In an interview in March, the first African American woman elected as a Republican in Franklin County to the Ohio state Senate said black middle-class or working-class voters have the same economic problems as their white neighbors.

Reynolds, who was hosting an event for Bernie Moreno in a former church in a working-class black neighborhood in Columbus, said no matter what color you are, the economy is failing middle America, “And people are looking at the message that everything is fine and they know it is not because they have to pay the bills,” she said.

While Trump holds a sizeable lead over Biden in Ohio in the RealClearPolitics Average, Reynolds warns that it is the Ohio Senate race between Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown and Republican businessman Bernie Moreno where the black voters, men and women, could change everything for who holds the majority in the Senate come next January. 

The event for Moreno that Reynolds held was filled with black, white, and Hispanic voters looking for someone to hear their concerns. Nanette Taylor, a local entrepreneur, handed people Moreno signs as they left. “Events like this go unnoticed,” she said. “We are tucked away off the highway and not many people are paying attention. Then when Election Day [comes] and what most folks thought would happen doesn’t, they wonder how did we miss that?”

Salena Zito is a reporter for the Washington Examiner, Wall Street Journal contributor, and co-author of “The Great Revolt: Inside the Populist Coalition Reshaping American Politics.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged above the historic 40,000 mark in late morning and early afternoon trading. Euphoria was high as bulls celebrated Dow 40,000. This week’s gains across broad equity indexes were primarily driven by a cooler April CPI print and dismal retail data on Wednesday, along with cooling Philly Fed data, surprisingly weak home-building activity, and a flat industrial production report on Thursday. The macro-intensive week puts the economy potentially on a soft-landing approach, with the Federal Reserve likely to start cutting interest rates in the second half of the year. However, around 1300 ET, broad selling pressure hit US equity indexes, pushing them flat to red for the session. The Dow has since lost the 40,000 mark.

The S&P 500 flirted with the 5,300 level for most of the session. Walmart surged to a record as earnings guided higher as wealthy consumers traded down to the big box retailer, driving sales higher. 

Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co told Bloomberg that the stock market experienced a breakout to all-time highs this week, though it might be time for a short-term “breather” before further gains are seen. 

The GameStop and AMC Entertainment Holdings short squeezes by Roaring Kitty faded into the end of the week. 

Long-short hedge funds were hit hard on Monday and Tuesday as the most shorted stocks, including meme stocks like GME and AMC, surged higher. However, as the rally in these heavily shorted stocks reversed, hedge funds have managed to recover most of their recent losses.

“Our HF VIP vs. Most short (GSPRHVMS Index) is +215bps today, now down only -2.5% in the last five days. As of Tuesday, this was down as much as -12%. This feels much more orderly (Unwinds of macro hedges),” Goldman’s Chloe Garber wrote in a midday note. 

Here are some of Garber’s key observations in markets today via the bank’s trading desk:

• All micro today: WMT +6% on EBIT upside and sales at the high end of the range; DE -3% on a Q2 beat but full year cut; UAA (+66bps) went from -15% to green on the day… shorted name/ one of the worst guides of the EPS season so far. Goldman thinks the stock went green because ppl aware of the consumer pressures at this point.

• 45% of the total market volume so far today is in <$1 stocks (CRKN, GWAV, FFIE, SINT stick out specifically. This compares to YTD average of ~12% for <$1 stocks.  Clearly a knock-on effect associated w/ meme stock activity.

• Volumes elevated today +30% vs the rest of the week, with S&P top of  book tracking higher as well. The floor is skewed +8% better to buy today led largely by LO buying.

• LOs most active in tech and macro products on the buy side, vs selling cons discretionary. HFs also much better buyers with  demand concentrated in macro products, HC, Industrials, and Tech. HFs are selling Fins, staples, and Energy.

The macro-intensive week has sent the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index to its lowest level since September 2022, as economic data increasingly prints to the downside as the economy slows. 

After all this data, yields on 10-year US Treasuries are marginally higher on the session, trading around 4.37%. 

Chris Zaccarelli at Independent Advisor Alliance said, “Breaking the 40,000 barrier is a big psychological boost for the bulls as round numbers hold special significance in people’s hearts and minds.” 

Goldman’s Chris Hussey writes in a midday note, “As for markets, the equity market continues to like what it’s seeing in the data — data that is pointing to a decidedly ‘soft’ landing and not the ‘strong’ landing that many had started to worry about through March.” 

Interest-rate swaps showed traders have priced in just two Fed rate cuts by the end of the year. Probabilities at the moment have the first cut at 86.5% in September. 

The gap between 2-10 year yields inverted further, approaching the 200-day moving average of around 41bps. 

“The re-establishment of a disinflation trend in the coming months should allow the Fed to start easing policy in September,” Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote in a note. 

Taking a look at GS’ latest earning results as 88% of total S&P 500 market cap has reported:

60% beat earnings by at least 1 standard deviation of analyst estimates (vs. 15 year average of 48%) and 10% of companies missed earnings by at least 1 standard deviation of analyst estimates (vs. 15 year average of 13%). Consensus expected EPS to grow by 3% at the start of 1Q reporting season. With reporting season almost complete, EPS growth year/year is tracking at +6%.

Chart of the day via GS are energy companies saw the largest increase in AI mentions on earnings call vs the prior quarter. 

Let’s not forget while this is happening…

Dow hits 40,000 on the day the Citi economic surprise index dumps to the lowest level since Sept 2022 pic.twitter.com/QJQj2Fmbws

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 16, 2024

The Vix has tumbled to its lowest intraday level since December. 

Bloomberg outlines one of the most notable Vix option trades today:

• A VIX trader seemingly bought a 22/47.50 call spread expiring Aug. 21 in a 1×2 ratio 20,000 times
• Paid $0.36 per position
• VIX approached 12 midday

Earlier, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that persistent inflation will surprise markets, which is an ominous sign for corporate bond markets. 

Ending with S&P500’s daily RSI approach ‘overbought’ levels… 

It’s all or nothing for Dow 40,000. Will the level be sustained, or is this a ‘kiss of death’?