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UC Berkeley professor Michael Eisen has been involved in a number of initially-crazy-sounding projects over the years, an alarming number of which (open access to scientific publication (PLOS), home genetic sequencing (23andme), plant-based “meat” (Impossible Foods) have actually borne much fruit.  Here is his latest—he himself calls it “disturbing and terrifying.”
Eisen’s idea is a variation on the “National Popular Vote” (NPV) scheme.  For those of you unfamiliar with how NPV works, the basic idea is as follows (and many more details are available at the NPV website here):

A State—let’s call it New York—enacts a statute with two basic provisions:

1.  The Governor shall appoint, as presidential electors, the slate of electors submitted by the presidential candidate who receives the largest number of votes cast nationwide in the presidential election. [Currently, of course, it is the candidate winning a plurality of votes cast in NY who gets all of NY’s electors.]
2. Paragraph (1) shall only come into effect if and when a sufficient number of other States enact laws with the identical Paragraph (1) provision to cumulatively account for 270 (or more) electoral votes.

You have to admit, whatever your position might be on whether the Electoral College is or is not a useful institution, that it’s a devilishly clever scheme. Without the need for a constitutional amendment, but relying instead on the power granted to the States in Article II to “appoint [electors] in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct,” it would guarantee that the Electoral College would elect the winner of the nationwide popular vote, once the 270-electoral-vote threshold were met.

The NPV statute has been enacted into law in 16 jurisdictions, accounting cumulatively for 196 electoral votes (CA, CO, CT, DC, DE, HI, IL, MA, MD, NJ, NM, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA), leaving it 74 electoral votes short of the trigger. In nine additional states with 88 additional electoral votes (AR, AZ, ME, MI, MN, NC, NV, OK, VA) the NPV statute has passed in one house (but not the other) of the state legislature.

One obstacle which makes it difficult for the NPV to achieve the required level of support is the diminishing incentive for the “swing states”—the states that, in the current scheme, hold virtually all of the power in the presidential election (OH, PA, WI, FL, MI, VA, NC)—to join in the NPV scheme. The swing states are “swing” precisely because, unlike CA and AL and NY and KS and …, their electorates are pretty evenly divided between the two parties; because the NPV initiative is widely—though perhaps wrongly—seen as favoring the “blue” team at the expense of the “reds,” the political battle over the NPV, and the political opposition to joining with the NPV States, are likely to be particularly intense in these swing states.

Moreover, precisely because these are the States that effectively hold all the power in the current scheme, they might well be unwilling to give up that power by joining the NPV coalition. Votes, and voters, in the swing states matter a lot more, in the current presidential election environment, than the votes and voters in NY or AL or CA or KS.  The presidential candidates—both of them—will be paying an enormous amount of attention to the voters in swing states. The issues about which swing state voters are concerned will be front and center in the campaign—and the hundreds of millons, if not billions, of dollars that the candidates will be pouring into their states during the campaign, ain’t bad, either.

And if you think about it, as the NPV gets closer and closer to the 270 trigger, the “swing states” who don’t join in get even more power (and a bigger slice of those advertising dollars) than they have now.  Imagine if, say, PA (20 electoral votes), MI (16), and VA (13) had enacted the NPV statute.  The total would now stand at 196+49=245—a mere 25 votes short.  The voters in these states (PA, MI and VA) would now be just like voters in NY and AL; their votes would count (for purposes of the national popular vote), but they would no longer get any special additional weight from having come from a “swing state.” On the other hand, the non-joining swing states—FL, OH, WI, NC—become even swing-ier than before, with even more attention being paid to corralling their contested electoral votes than before.

If you are a supporter of the NPV, this is not a great position to be in; as the network of joining states gets larger, those states that have not yet joined are under more of a disincentive to join. It’s a kind of negative feedback, and negative feedback’s not the best way to grow a network.

Enter Mike Eisen.  Here’s what he’s proposing as a substitute for the current NPV statute:

1.  The Governor shall appoint, as presidential electors, the slate of electors submitted by the presidential candidate who receives the largest number of votes cast, in the aggregate pool of voters in those states (the “Joining States”) that have enacted a paragraph identical to this one.
2.  Paragraph (1) shall only come into effect when the cumulative electoral votes in the Joining States equals or exceeds 270.

Notice how this works.  The States enacting this revised NPV law would be agreeing (once the 270 trigger is achieved) to pool their votes with all the other States that have signed onto this scheme, and to give all of their electoral votes to the candidate who receives a plurality of the pooled votes from those Joining States.

And notice that if this statute ever were to come into effect because the 270-vote threshold was met, it would render the votes in the non-joining states completely worthless; votes from non-joining States would play no part whatsoever in determining whom the Electoral College would select as the next president.

That is, if we were to reach the 270-Electoral-vote trigger point, the Joining States would pool their votes together in a pile, determine the candidate who received the most votes in the entire pool, and then they would all designate their Electors to vote for that candidate.  And, under the premise that we had reached the 270-vote trigger, that would be sufficient to elect that candidate president no matter what happened in the other non-Joining States.

I think you can see why Prof. Eisen called this “disturbing.”  Votes in non-Joining states no longer count at all in determining who gets to be president. Under this scheme, if Ohio does not Join and agree to pool its vote with other Joiners, it runs the risk that enough other States will Join to make Ohio voters completely irrelevant in the presidential election.  

And that risk—the risk that the voters in your State will be rendered a total irrelevance the moment the 270 threshold is met—intensifies as the Joiners get closer and closer to 270.

Voila! Positive feedback; the more States that Join, the greater the incentive for non-Joiners to Join, which adds more States to the pool, which increases further the incentive for non-Joiners to Join, and so on.

Could this actually work?  Is it really constitutional?

I think the answer to both questions, surprisingly, is “yes.”  Neither is simple, so I’ll save my more detailed thoughts for subsequent postings, and just make these observations:

Whether it would work depends a bit on what it means to “work.”  If your goal is to create a system under which the winner of the popular vote gets to be president, I think this will do it for you.  Notice that under this scheme any non-Joining State can, at any time, enter the ranks of the Joined States. So suppose that Ohio refuses to Join.  If the statutory trigger is activated, it faces a simple choice: Watch the next presidential election from the sidelines, with your voters playing no role in determining the outcome, or Join so that Ohioans’ votes count for something. And the same choice would be facing Nebraska, and Alaska, and any other non-Joiners.  Indeed, I think this little statute has an almost unstoppable dynamic behind it, and that it would—possibly quite quickly—become law in all states; what State would not want its voters to have any say at all in who becomes the next president?

And there you’d have it; the “pool” would then consist of the entire country, each State’s electors would be pledged to the candidate winning the nationwide pooled popular vote, and that candidate would be elected—unanimously—by the Electoral College. So if that’s your goal, this will, I think, get you there.

As for the constitutional question(s), the Supreme Court just this past term (in the “faithless elector” cases, Chiafalo v. Washington and Colorado v. Baca) strongly, and unanimously, re-affirmed the broad, plenary authority given to the States in Article 2 to appoint electors in any manner they see fit. As I read these and other precedents on this matter, NY is perfectly free to declare, in its election law, that it will appoint electors in accordance with the popular vote count in New Jersey; it would be odd if it did so, but it would not be unconstitutional.  And if NY can do that, why can’t it say that it will appoint electors in accordance with the popular vote count in NY+NJ+any other State that wants to be in the common pool.

State power in this regard is, presumably, subject to the other binding provisions of the federal constitution; NY cannot declare that it will only appoint white males as electors, for example.  But I’m having trouble seeing how Eisen’s proposal runs afoul of any superseding constitutional provision.  I suppose that an Ohioan could assert that the scheme violates the principle of “one person/one vote” under the Equal Protection Clause, by causing his/her vote to count for nothing in NY’s determination of who to appoint as an elector while a New Jerseyan gets a say in the matter. But does an Ohioan have standing to challenge NY election law? And in any event, it’s hard to see how an Ohioan somehow has a constitutional right to have his/her votes counted by NY; it’s not as though under the current, and presumably constitutional, scheme NY takes Ohioans’ preferences into account when choosing its electors—so how can an Ohioan contend that this “right” was violated by the NPV scheme?

 

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The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit yesterday ruled that the National Security Agency’s bulk collection of Americans’ telephone records was illegal and probably unconstitutional. For Democrats who see Donald Trump as an unprecedented threat because of his disregard for the Constitution, the decision is a useful reminder that sacrificing civil liberties on the altar of national security is a bipartisan rite.

The NSA program, which was revealed by former NSA contractor Edward Snowden in 2013, indiscriminately collected telephone “metadata”—indicating who was calling whom and how long they talked—about millions of Americans for years. The program, which the USA FREEDOM Act ended in 2015, began under George W. Bush but continued during Barack Obama’s administration, which concealed its existence, then speciously defended its legality and usefulness.

“The administration has now lost all credibility,” The New York Times editorialized after Snowden’s revelations. “Mr. Obama is proving the truism that the executive will use any power it is given and very likely abuse it.”

James Clapper, the Air Force general whom Obama appointed as director of national intelligence, epitomized the administration’s dishonesty by blatantly lying to a Senate committee about the NSA’s data collection practices three months before the phone record database was revealed, then repeatedly lying about lying. In his latest incarnation, Clapper is a vociferous Trump critic who blames Russia for the election of a president he despises as a man “whose first instincts are to twist and distort truth to his advantage.”

Further scrambling the conventional understanding of which major party is more concerned about civil liberties, Obama tried to prosecute Snowden, while Trump, who in 2013 called Snowden “a traitor” who “should be executed,” last month suggested he might pardon the NSA whistleblower. Another interesting point Democrats might prefer to overlook: While questioning the constitutionality of the NSA’s metadata dragnet, the 9th Circuit cites Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch, a Trump nominee who is a more reliable defender of the Fourth Amendment than the judge Obama wanted to appoint.

I am not for a moment suggesting that Trump’s new respect for Snowden, which is probably driven by his pique at “deep state” foes like Clapper, or his choice of Gorsuch, which was based on what he thought conservatives wanted, reflects civil libertarian principles (or any principles at all). But as this case shows, Trump’s polarizing personality tends to obscure the deeper problem of powers that tempt presidents to violate our rights, regardless of their personal traits, avowed principles, or party affiliation.

The prosecution that led to the 2nd Circuit’s decision involved four Somali immigrants who were convicted in 2013 of sending money to the terrorist group al-Shabab. While the ruling does not affect those convictions, it addresses the legality of the NSA’s phone record database, which supposedly played a crucial role in the case.

I say “supposedly” because that is what federal officials claimed while defending the NSA’s program. Then-FBI Deputy Director Sean Joyce, for example, told a congressional committee the database generated a tip that allowed the bureau to reopen its investigation of the suspected al-Shabab supporters. The 2nd Circuit rightly discounts such statements, which were part of a fact-deficient attempt to portray the program as an essential weapon against terrorism.

“The metadata collection, even if unconstitutional, did not taint the evidence introduced by the government at trial,” the appeals court says. “To the extent the public statements of government officials created a contrary impression, that impression is inconsistent with the contents of the classified record.” That’s a polite way of saying that Obama administration officials misled the public about the program’s value.

What about its legality? As the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 2nd Circuit did in 2015, the 9th Circuit makes short work of the government’s argument that the program was authorized by Section 215 of the PATRIOT Act, which allowed secret court orders “requiring the production of any tangible things (including books, records, papers, documents, and other items) for an investigation…to protect against international terrorism.” Such orders were supposed to be based on “a statement of facts showing that there are reasonable grounds to believe that the tangible things sought are relevant to an authorized investigation.”

Using the same needle-in-a-haystack argument that was deployed by the Obama administration, the government’s lawyers maintained that everyone’s phone records are “relevant to an authorized investigation” because searching them might reveal useful clues. “Although admittedly a substantial portion of the telephony metadata that is collected would not relate to [terrorism suspects],” they said, “the intelligence tool that the Government hopes to use to find [investigation-related] communications—metadata analysis—requires collecting and storing large volumes of the metadata to enable later analysis.” According to the government, “all of the metadata collected is thus relevant, because the success of this investigative tool depends on bulk collection.”

The 2nd Circuit said “such an expansive concept of ‘relevance’ is unprecedented and unwarranted,” and the 9th Circuit concurs. The government’s interpretation “essentially reads the ‘authorized investigation’ language out of the statute,” it says. “We hold that the telephony metadata collection program exceeded the scope of Congress’s authorization.”

As for the program’s constitutionality, the government argued that it was covered by the third-party doctrine, which says people do not have a reasonable expectation of privacy regarding information they voluntarily divulge to others (in this case, the phone companies from which the NSA collected its metadata). The Supreme Court invented that doctrine in United States v. Miller, a 1976 case involving bank records. Three years later, the Court invoked the doctrine in Smith v. Maryland, which involved a warrantless “pen register” that police used to record the numbers dialed by a robbery suspect over the course of a few days. Although that situation is rather different from the collection of personal information about millions of people for years, the government argued that Smith shows the NSA’s program was consistent with the Fourth Amendment.

“There are strong reasons to doubt that Smith applies here,” the 9th Circuit says. “The distinctions between Smith and this case are legion and most probably constitutionally significant….Society may not have recognized as reasonable Smith’s expectation of privacy in a few days’ worth of dialed numbers but is much more likely to perceive as private several years’ worth of telephony metadata collected on an ongoing, daily basis—as demonstrated by the public outcry following the revelation of the metadata collection program.”

The Supreme Court in Smith drew a distinction between the “contents” of a phone call and information about numbers dialed, deeming the latter much less sensitive. But “in recent years the distinction between content and metadata ‘has become increasingly untenable,'” the appeals court notes. “The amount of metadata created and collected has increased exponentially, along with the government’s ability to analyze it.”

The 9th Circuit emphasizes how revealing this information can be, quoting former NSA General Counsel Stewart Baker. “Metadata absolutely tells you everything about somebody’s life,” Baker said. “If you have enough metadata you don’t really need content.”

The appeals court illustrates that point with a couple of examples: “A woman calls her sister at 2:00 a.m. and talks for an hour. The record of that call reveals some of the woman’s personal information, but more is revealed by access to the sister’s call records, which show that the sister called the woman’s husband immediately afterward. Or, a police officer calls his college roommate for the first time in years. Afterward, the roommate calls a suicide hotline.”

And that’s just for a start. “Metadata can be combined and analyzed to reveal far more sophisticated information than one or two individuals’ phone records convey,” the 9th Circuit notes before quoting a brief filed by the Brennan Center for Justice: “It is relatively simple to superimpose our metadata trails onto the trails of everyone within our social group and those of everyone within our contacts’ social groups and quickly paint a picture that can be startlingly detailed.”

The 9th Circuit notes that the Supreme Court expressed similar concerns in Carpenter v. United States, the 2018 case in which the justices said the third-party doctrine does not apply to cellphone location data. Furthermore, the appeals court says, “numerous commentators and two Supreme Court Justices have questioned the continuing viability of the third-party doctrine under current societal realities.”

Here is where Gorsuch comes in. He dissented in Carpenter, not because he thought cops should be allowed to collect cellphone location data without a warrant but because he thought the third-party doctrine should be scrapped entirely, along with the malleable “reasonable expectation” test. Nowadays, Gorsuch noted, people routinely store sensitive information—including “private documents” that, “in other eras, we would have locked safely in a desk drawer or destroyed”—on third-party servers. According to the reasoning of Miller and Smith, he said, “police can review all of this material, on the theory that no one reasonably expects any of it will be kept private. But no one believes that, if they ever did.”

The 9th Circuit did not reach a firm conclusion about the constitutionality of the NSA’s program, because it was not necessary to decide whether the convictions should stand. But its observations show how readily the government invades our privacy on the flimsiest pretext, blithely dismissing constitutional concerns when they prove inconvenient. That alarming tendency cannot be corrected by switching out one politician for another.

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Campus Reform has the story on Prof. Greg Patton, who is “no longer teaching his” Fall semester course:

“Recently, a USC faculty member during class used a Chinese word that sounds similar to a racial slur in English. We acknowledge the historical, cultural and harmful impact of racist language,” the statement read.

Patton “agreed to take a short term pause while we are reviewing to better understand the situation and to take any appropriate next steps.”

It includes this video, which USC confirms is authentic:

Prof. Patton, in addition to generally being a professor of business communication, is also with the USC US-China Institute (which might help explain why he would give examples from Chinese):

His international work has primarily focused on China and the Pacific Rim.  He is a key advisor to the Center for Asian-Pacific Leadership at USC, a member of USC’s US-China Institute and teaches several courses at Jiao Tong University in Shanghai in the Marshall School’s Global Executive MBA Program.

Dr. Patton leads MBA learning programs in Korea and China and has advised on several hundred consulting engagements throughout the Pacific Rim in more than a dozen countries.

Prof. Victor Mair (Language Log), a linguist and Sinologist, passes along this statement from the USC Marshall School of Business dean about the controversy:

Dear Full-Time MBA Class of 2021,

Thank you for your interest and involvement in the current situation concerning the Class of 2022 and their GSBA-542 experience. This matter is of great importance to all of us. Accordingly, I want to make you aware of the action we are taking. This action is described in the attached email* that was just sent to all students in the Class of 2022.

Sincerely,

Geoff Garrett
Dean

[*see next item below]

———

Last Thursday in your GSBA-542 classes, Professor Greg Patton repeated several times a Chinese word that sounds very similar to a vile racial slur in English. Understandably, this caused great pain and upset among students, and for that I am deeply sorry. It is simply unacceptable for faculty to use words in class that can marginalize, hurt and harm the psychological safety of our students. We must and we will do better.

Professor Marion Philadelphia, Chair of the Department of Business Communications, will take over teaching the remainder of GSBA-542, beginning tomorrow, Tuesday August 25.

Over the coming weeks and months, I have no higher priority than to work with Vice Dean Sharoni Little, Vice Dean Suh-Pyng Ku and the other members of the Marshall leadership team to identify and redress bias, microaggressions, inequities and all forms of systemic racism associated with anyone’s identity throughout our school. We each must grow and learn always to engage respectfully with one another while fostering and exemplifying the knowledge and skills needed to lead and shape our diverse and global world—such as courage, empathy, compassion, advocacy, collaboration, and integrity.

I am deeply saddened by this disturbing episode that has caused such anguish and trauma. What happened cannot be undone. But please know that Sharoni, Suh-Pyng and I along with the entire Full-Time MBA Program team are here to support each of you. We welcome the opportunity to have conversations with any of you individually.

Sincerely,

Geoff Garrett
Dean

If twenty years ago Rush Limbaugh had given this incident as a hypothetical on his show (perhaps following the “niggardly” controversy), I expected he would have been derided as creating an obviously ridiculous straw-man caricature of liberal universities, a silly and unrealistic slippery slope argument. And yet here we are.

Two other letters to close this post. First, the letter that I think Dean Garrett should have written:

Last Thursday in your GSBA-542 classes, Professor Greg Patton repeated several times a Chinese word (generally transliterated in English as “neige”) that sounds very similar to a vile racial slur in English.

This should go without saying, but of course many languages have words that sound vaguely like English epithets or vulgarities, and vice versa. Naturally, USC students are expected to understand this, and recognize that such accidents of pronunciation have nothing to do with any actually insulting or offensive meaning.

To the extent that our first reaction to hearing such a word might be shock or upset, part of language education (or education of any sort) is to learn to set that aside. The world’s nearly one billion Mandarin speakers have no obligation to organize their speech to avoid random similarities with English words, and neither do our faculty (or students or anyone else) when they are speaking Mandarin. Indeed, it would be oddly Anglocentric (and indeed offensive to Mandarin speakers) to assume otherwise. And it is simply unacceptable for a university to try to impose any such obligation.

Over the coming weeks and months, one of my high priorities is to make sure that we teach students this and similar basic matters, because otherwise we would be failing in our educational mission. Students who seek to help lead and shape our diverse and global world have to learn to go beyond their initial reactions, and beyond their impulses to try to suppress things simply because they sound vaguely offensive—especially when those impulses stem simply from an (understandably) parochial view that comes from lack of real knowledge of foreign languages and cultures. We each must grow and learn always to engage respectfully with one another.

I am deeply saddened that some students were disturbed by the episode, because such disturbance reflects a failure of our educational system. I resolve that we at USC will teach our students the principles and tools that will keep them from falling into this sort of reaction. Please know that Prof. Patton and I along with the entire Full-Time MBA Program team are here to support each of you, by educating you on these principles.

Second, an e-mail that Prof. Mair reproduces in his post:

Mr. Patton,

I am a student from your communication class in last year’s term 1. I received an email from the dean regarding your removal from teaching communication class because of your use of the word 那个 (nà ge) in Chinese as part of a communication example. I am disgusted with the administration’s response and their lack of support of a colleague that did nothing wrong. If students seek to mis-interpret the word as a racial slur and claim their “mental health has been affected,” so be it.  Please know that there are many people that support you and are sick of this hyper-sensitive, McCarthyism-like environment that is being fostered across the country.”

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New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) said on a press call today that he would not allow indoor dining to return in New York City unless local politicians devoted significant police resources to enforcing social distancing and other reopening conditions.

“Our rules and guidance on reopening is only as good as the compliance and the enforcement,” Cuomo said, adding that state resources have already been stretched thin attempting to enforce limits on the serving of alcohol by outdoor restaurants in the city. “If we open restaurants that’s going to complicate by the hundreds if not thousands the number of establishments that have to be monitored.”

Restaurants are allowed to open for outdoor dining in New York City, but can only serve alcohol to seated patrons who’ve also ordered a meal, per a July executive order from Cuomo.

The governor’s latest comments come a day after New York City Council Speaker Corey Johnson issued a statement endorsing the reopening of indoor dining areas.

“It’s time to allow indoor dining in New York City with reduced capacity and clear guidance to ensure social distancing and safety,” Johnson said yesterday. “Summer is winding down, and they need to begin planning for the colder months.”

Restaurants in the rest of New York state have been allowed to reopen their dining rooms at 50 percent capacity provided they maintain six feet of distance between parties and following other physical distancing guidelines. Earlier this week, one New York City restaurant filed a $2 billion class-action lawsuit against state and local officials over their continued ban on indoor dining.

“We’re going to contact the Speaker today and say if New York City can say this many police, NYPD, can be put on a task force to monitor the compliance, that is something we can discuss,” Cuomo said during his press call today, suggesting that 4,000 officers would be needed to police indoor dining establishments.

“The Speaker is talking to the Governor about how we can help bring indoor dining to the five boroughs,” a council spokesperson told Reason. Johnson agrees with the need for compliance but wants other city agencies—not NYPD—to be involved with enforcement.

New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio said today at a press conference that he was looking into extending the city’s Open Restaurants initiative—which allows businesses to set up on sidewalks, curb lanes, and streets—beyond its current October 31 expiration date, reports NBC New York.

The mayor remained non-committal about when indoor dining might return, saying, “It has to be health and safety first. It has to be, how do we defeat coronavirus? That’s the first consideration.” De Blasio previously said that he would make a decision this month on when restaurants could reopen their dining rooms. Cuomo has stressed that allowing indoor dining is his decision to make.

New York City’s Hospitality Alliance, which represents restaurants, has been demanding the return of indoor dining for weeks now.

“The city exceeds and sustains the metrics that have allowed restaurants throughout the rest of the State to reopen,” said Hospitality Alliance executive direction Andrew Rigie in an August press conference. “Our industry’s survival over the next several months depends on government immediately developing and implementing a plan that allows restaurants in New York City to safely reopen indoors.”

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It doesn’t sound like Spencer Cox is planning a victory party for November 3.

“I told my people, ‘We are not going to know who won this on election night,'” Cox, Utah’s Republican gubernatorial nominee, told The Atlantic‘s McCay Coppins.

Think about that for a second. Utah hasn’t elected a Democrat to be governor since 1984, and it has been voted Republican in every presidential election since 1964. If Cox thinks he might be waiting a long time for his race to be called this year, just imagine what that means for anyone waiting for the results of a more competitive election in a state with a lot more voters.

In Utah, those long waits have become the norm. It’s one of only a handful of states to rely primarily on mail-in voting—and while the system is safe and effective, it does take a bit longer to tally the results. When Cox won the state’s Republican gubernatorial primary earlier this year, for example, it took until the Monday after Election Day for the race to be called.

“That’s very common,” he says. “It’s just a paradigm shift that people have had to get used to.”

The rest of the country doesn’t have much time to get up to speed.

Thanks to both historical trends and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, more people are going to vote by mail this year than ever before. Political campaigns and media coverage have focused on how increased mail-in balloting will affect the run-up to Election Day, but the real challenge may come after November 3 has passed. Mailed ballots take longer to process than those cast in person—to prevent fraud, each ballot must be individually checked and recorded by election officials. Even with computers, that’s a time-consuming process. A large number of ballots will certainly remain uncounted when Election Day comes to a close.

“The problem is logistical,” says Yuval Levin, director of social, cultural, and constitutional studies at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank. He notes that some states took weeks to finish counting absentee and mailed-in ballots during this year’s primary season. “We should expect that we won’t have results on election night and that it will take some time. That doesn’t mean that the results are not legitimate.”

Instead of being a single, distinct event, Election Day 2020 will unspool from November 3 in both directions along our timeline at varying rates of speed. There will be a slow build-up as ballots will be mailed, filled out, and returned. That’s followed by the day itself, when many people will go to the polls more-or-less as usual, with those results reported that night. Then comes the crucial (and potentially agonizing) process of counting perhaps millions of mailed-in ballots. If nothing else, it will be appropriate for a year when time seems to have little meaning.

When it comes to the presidential race, there’s one very important post-election deadline that the states must meet: the planned December 14 gathering of the Electoral College. Six days before that date, each state must certify a winner in the presidential race so the appropriate electors can do the official business of choosing the next president.

That deadline played a key role in concluding the most controversial election in recent American history. The infamous recount of Florida’s votes in the 2000 presidential election was brought to a halt, in part, because the state ran up against a federal law that requires presidential electors to be determined six days before the Electoral College meets.

This year, if multiple states are still counting absentee ballots into the first week of December and the election’s winner is still unknown, things could get messy.

“If there are these logistical problems, states could just run out of time,” says Levin.

His preferred solution: Postpone the Electoral College’s meeting until the first week in January. The Electoral College itself is a constitutional requirement, but the day it meets to determine the election’s winner is set by federal law. A simple vote in Congress and a presidential signature could give states more time to finish counting votes.

Sen. Marco Rubio (R–Fla.) has already introduced a bill to do just that. His legislation would give states until the end of the year to finish counting and to certify electors, with the Electoral College meeting on January 2 instead of December 14.

“We cannot escape the pandemic-induced reality of increased mail-in voting, and the logistical challenges associated with it will be difficult for some states to resolve in the next couple of months,” Rubio wrote in a Medium post announcing his bill. He envisions a scenario in which one candidate leads in a key swing state by fewer than 100,000 votes on Election Day but the state has more than a million mail-in ballots yet to be counted. That’s a distinct possibility, particularly in the 15 states where officials aren’t allowed to start counting ballots until Election Day even if they arrive earlier.

“We should give states the flexibility to provide local election officials additional time to count each and every vote,” says Rubio.

“I think just by giving the states more time we could avoid one kind of disaster we might encounter,” Levin says, though he acknowledges that the time for Congress to act is quickly running out. As Election Day nears, any changes to the process will likely be seen as a political calculation intended to help or hurt one party or the other.

It maybe already be too late. President Donald Trump seems intent on spurring as much chaos as possible during the election season, and it seems unlikely that the White House would agree to give states more time to count absentee ballots when the president is also insisting that increased levels of voting by mail will hurt his chances at re-election. His campaign has also sued states for expanding mail-in voting.

In reality, there’s no reason to suspect that higher levels of voting by mail will advantage Democrats. Republicans like Rubio are trying to do the right thing by giving states more time to count votes, and Republicans like Cox are right to warn voters that election results will take more time than usual to process.

Americans are living through an election season unlike any other. At least the stakes aren’t too high.

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