Los Angeles’ Financially Strained Transit Agency Considers Eliminating Fares on Buses and Trains

LA-Metro

The Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority, called Metro for short, will convene a taskforce this week to study the idea of abolishing fares on its buses and trains.

The aim is to boost ridership and support low-income riders who’ve been hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic. Still to be determined is how the already financially strained Metro would cover the costs of making its service free to riders.

“Metro has a moral obligation to pursue a fareless system and help our region recover from both a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic and the devastating effects of the lack of affordability in the region,” Metro CEO Paul Washington told The Source, Metro’s blog.

The idea has earned the support of L.A. Mayor Eric Garcetti, who chairs Metro’s Board of Directors. Garcetti said on Twitter that abolishing fares would be “an important step toward a more equitable and sustainable future.”

The Source post notes that the median Metro rider’s household income is $17,975 for bus riders and $27,723 for rail passengers, two income brackets that have been hit hard by the health and economic impacts of coronavirus.

Eliminating fares for all riders, regardless of income, would be an expensive proposition.

In fiscal year 2019, Metro says it pulled in $250–$300 million in fares to cover $1.9 billion in operating costs. In 2018, Metro collected $300 million in fares from its bus and rail services, which covered just under 20 percent of its operating expenses.

The money that Metro would lose from eliminating fares come on top of the extra costs it has had to assume because of the pandemic, says Baruch Feigenbaum, a transportation expert at the Reason Foundation (which publishes this website).

“To carry the same number of folks, they have to run extra trains, because they’re trying to do some form of social distancing. They have added health costs for their employees,” says Feigenbaum. “Ridership is going down and costs are going up, and you’re saying: ‘Let’s just get rid of one of our major revenue sources.'”

Metro estimates that it’s facing a $1.8 billion funding shortfall because of the pandemic. The Coronavirus Aid, Recovery, and Economic Security (CARES) Act including $25 billion in federal grants to distressed transit agencies; Metro received $861.9 million of that.

The California Transit Association, of which Metro is a part, is asking for an additional $3 billion this year to cover local transit agencies’ pandemic-related losses.

Metro says that it would study other sources of revenue to cover the costs of lost fares, including state grants, federal grants, and more advertising.

Asked whether it would cover the costs of fare abolition with tax increases or service cuts, a Metro spokesperson tells Reason that “we are not considering tax increases and have the ability to adjust our service levels now to meet on-street realities.”

Feigenbaum argues that eliminating fares weakens Metro’s incentives to keep costs under control. “As long as [riders] are paying some cost, there’s still some incentive to keep costs down,” he tells Reason, given that higher costs will have to be reflected in fare prices. “If you get rid of the fare altogether, there is no incentive whatsoever.”

The past few decades have seen Metro prioritize expanding light rail service frequented by higher-income “transit choice” riders, while cutting bus services normally used by lower-income “transit-dependent” riders. If riders aren’t expected to cover any of the costs of their rides, Metro would one less check on its tendency to build pricey but little-used rail lines at the expense of more heavily used bus lines, Feigenbaum points out.

Transit-dependent riders themselves report valuing service improvements over the elimination of fares.

“Most low-income bus riders rate lowering fares as less important than improving the quality of the service,” the Transit Center found in a 2019 survey of 1,700 riders from 7 cities. “This suggests that if a transit agency had to choose between devoting funds to reducing fares or to maintaining or improving service, most riders would prefer the latter.”

That same survey says that Los Angeles, given its low farebox recovery ratio, would be best placed of any large transit system to eliminate fares. But it also concludes that other policies, such as congestion pricing or higher parking fees, would do a better job of increasing transit ridership and improving transit service.

Studies of fare-free transit find that the idea works best when adopted by smaller cities, such as college and resort towns, where the costs of fare collection are high compared to revenue taken in and where transit systems have enough capacity to absorb new riders.

Denver and Austin both abolished fares in the 1970s only to reinstate them later. The abolition of fares, coupled in both cases with expanded service, did increase ridership, according to a 2012 study. But it also generated overcrowding on vehicles and an increase in “problem passenger” incidents. The Kansas City Council voted last year to make public buses fare-free but it has yet to implement the system. A sticking point, reports Smart Cities Dive, is finding the $8 million needed to cover the cost of ditching fares.

Feigenbaum suggests that fare vouchers for low-income riders, funded by higher fares for less price-sensitive transit users, would be a better approach than abolishing fares entirely. That would help subsidize riders who need transit while forestalling the need to hit up taxpayers for additional revenue.

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Joe Biden Condemns Riots: ‘Setting Fires Is Not Protesting’

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“Rioting is not protesting,” said Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden during a speech at a steel mill in Pennsylvania today. “Looting is not protesting. Setting fires is not protesting.”

Biden called for the prosecution of looters, shaming them for destroying small businesses and harming working families. The former vice president even spoke directly to the Trump-world talking point that he is a pawn of the radical left.

“You know me,” said Biden. “You know my heart. You know my story, my family story. Ask yourself, do I look like a radical socialist with a soft spot for rioters? Really?”

This isn’t a new direction for Biden: The candidate has consistently praised the mainstream Black Lives Matter protests while steadfastly refusing to condone violence or lend support to the more radical political goals associated with the movement. (He does not, for example, want to defund the police.) And he has condemned the riots several times over the summer.

So far, to the extent that the violence is generating a backlash against the Black Lives Matter movement, it does not seem to be impacting Biden’s popularity. Nevertheless, Trump surrogates evidently believe the violence in several U.S. cities could be a winning issue, and are trying to spin them as “Biden riots.”

“Every time you see a burned out building or looted store, it is a reminder of failed Democrat leadership,” wrote Steve Guest, a spokesperson for the Republican National Convention, in a press release.

Several local Democratic leaders have indeed mishandled the violence. But Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler isn’t going to be on the ballot in November (except in Portland). As long as Biden continues to call for rioters to face justice, attempts to portray the Biden-Harris ticket as an avatar of lefty violence will be unconvincing.

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Joe Biden Condemns Riots: ‘Setting Fires Is Not Protesting’

zumaglobalten315195

“Rioting is not protesting,” said Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden during a speech at a steel mill in Pennsylvania today. “Looting is not protesting. Setting fires is not protesting.”

Biden called for the prosecution of looters, shaming them for destroying small businesses and harming working families. The former vice president even spoke directly to the Trump-world talking point that he is a pawn of the radical left.

“You know me,” said Biden. “You know my heart. You know my story, my family story. Ask yourself, do I look like a radical socialist with a soft spot for rioters? Really?”

This isn’t a new direction for Biden: The candidate has consistently praised the mainstream Black Lives Matter protests while steadfastly refusing to condone violence or lend support to the more radical political goals associated with the movement. (He does not, for example, want to defund the police.) And he has condemned the riots several times over the summer.

So far, to the extent that the violence is generating a backlash against the Black Lives Matter movement, it does not seem to be impacting Biden’s popularity. Nevertheless, Trump surrogates evidently believe the violence in several U.S. cities could be a winning issue, and are trying to spin them as “Biden riots.”

“Every time you see a burned out building or looted store, it is a reminder of failed Democrat leadership,” wrote Steve Guest, a spokesperson for the Republican National Convention, in a press release.

Several local Democratic leaders have indeed mishandled the violence. But Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler isn’t going to be on the ballot in November (except in Portland). As long as Biden continues to call for rioters to face justice, attempts to portray the Biden-Harris ticket as an avatar of lefty violence will be unconvincing.

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Classes #5: “Enumerated Powers III” and “Deeds & Warranties of Title I”

Class 5: Enumerated Powers III – The Warren Court and the Spending Power (8/31/20)

  • Hearts of Atlanta Motel (246-255)
  • Katzenbach v. McClung (255-260)
  • South Dakota v. Dole (261-265)

Class 5: Deeds & Warranties of Title I (8/31/20)

  • Warranties of Title, 595
  • General Warranty Deed
  • 596-600 Texas General Warranty Deed
  • Frimberger v. Anzellotti, 600-605

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Classes #5: “Enumerated Powers III” and “Deeds & Warranties of Title I”

Class 5: Enumerated Powers III – The Warren Court and the Spending Power (8/31/20)

  • Hearts of Atlanta Motel (246-255)
  • Katzenbach v. McClung (255-260)
  • South Dakota v. Dole (261-265)

Class 5: Deeds & Warranties of Title I (8/31/20)

  • Warranties of Title, 595
  • General Warranty Deed
  • 596-600 Texas General Warranty Deed
  • Frimberger v. Anzellotti, 600-605

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Feds Finally Give Amazon Permission for Drone Deliveries in the U.S.

AmazonDrone_1161x653

Good news for both lovers of tech innovation and pandemic social distancing: Drone deliveries are set to expand in the United States.

When the coronavirus pandemic came to America in March and April, many jurisdictions issued broad orders to shelter in place. Home delivery services were hit hard by an explosion in demand, and they lacked the manpower to respond immediately. Stores and delivery services such as Instacart went on hiring sprees to staff up; in some areas, it was extremely hard if not impossible to get goods delivered.

You know what might have made things just a bit easier? Drone deliveries. It has taken years for the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to allow the use of drones for commercial delivery services. We’ve gone over the course of a decade from a complete ban to extremely slow, heavily regulated, and extremely restrictive initial testing.

Amazon and Google have both been slowly working on drone delivery services, as have some smaller companies. And today, the FAA finally gave Amazon approval for its Prime Air drone delivery fleet.

The FAA did this, Bloomberg reports, by classifying Amazon as an “air carrier” and putting it under the scope of some relatively recent regulations intended to facilitate drone deliveries. The extremely restrictive private drone rules the FAA first put into place required that drones remain in sight of the operator at all times. That simply won’t work for drone deliveries. So last year the agency introduced a special certification process that would allow approved pilots to operate drones for much longer distances specifically for deliveries. Wing Aviation, a subsidiary of Google, got some of the first certifications and started a pilot program to deliver food and pharmaceuticals in Virginia.

Today’s announcement means Amazon will be able to join Google in drone deliveries. The company isn’t ready to start sending out delivery drones immediately and it has declined to state where such deliveries will begin, but last year it revealed its fleet can carry packages of up to five pounds and can deliver in a 15-mile range in less than 30 minutes.

The FAA also recently granted Zipline a temporary waiver letting the company deliver medical supplies in North Carolina. Zipline had been operating for some time in Africa, but the United States continues to lag behind both developed and undeveloped nations in giving drone companies the freedom to test.

Amazon still faces several technical and regulatory hurdles, but it’s great that the government is giving it this new room to maneuver. Too bad it took the feds this long to allow it, especially as a pandemic makes drone deliveries not just a futuristic innovation but something we could really use as soon as possible.

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CDC Data Confirm That Young People Face a Negligible Risk of Dying From COVID-19

CoronavirusGenericDreamstime

The latest data on COVID-19 cases and fatalities from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) confirm that young people face a negligible risk of dying from the disease, while people 65 and older face a much higher risk. Patients 65 or older account for about 16 percent of confirmed cases but four-fifths of COVID-19 deaths.

The crude case fatality rate indicated by the CDC’s numbers (deaths divided by confirmed cases) is about 0.25 percent for patients younger than 50 and nearly 16 percent—63 times higher—for patients older than 64. While the overall crude CFR is 3 percent, the rates among adults range from 0.07 percent for patients in their late teens and 20s to 29 percent for patients 85 or older—more than 400 times higher.

Because these calculations include only confirmed cases, the percentages are higher than the fatality rates among all Americans infected by the COVID-19 virus, many of whom never seek testing because their symptoms are mild or nonexistent. Judging from the CDC’s antibody studies, the infection fatality rate varies widely from one part of the country to another—from 0.1 percent in Utah to 1.4 percent in Connecticut, for example.

The nationwide infection fatality rate remains unclear, since it depends on how many infections have been undetected. The CDC’s current “best estimate,” based on studies from around the world, is 0.65 percent, more than twice as high as its implied estimate in May. Since the CDC’s antibody research suggests the ratio of total infections to confirmed cases is something like 10 to 1, the earlier estimate may prove closer to the mark.

The strong correlation between age and fatality risk is probably largely a function of preexisting medical conditions, which are more common among older Americans. As of August 22, the CDC reports, 94 percent of COVID-19 fatalities involved “additional conditions or causes”—2.6 on average. Aside from conditions, such as pneumonia and respiratory failure, that may have been caused by COVID-19, the most common comorbidities were circulatory diseases. Hypertension, for example, was noted in more than a fifth of the cases. Diabetes was mentioned 16 percent of the time.

The CDC considers diabetes a risk factor for severe COVID-19, and it lists hypertension as a possible risk factor. Other risk factors mentioned by the CDC include kidney disease, which was noted in 8.5 percent of the deaths; heart failure (6.5 percent); cancer (4.6 percent); and obesity (3.5 percent).

These data reinforce the point that COVID-19 (unlike, say, the “Spanish flu” of 1918) is mainly a threat to the elderly and people with serious preexisting conditions—two groups that overlap a lot. The policy implications depend on which approach to protecting those vulnerable groups makes more sense: broad restrictions that seek to reduce the spread of the virus and thereby make it less likely that high-risk individuals will encounter carriers, or narrower safeguards that aim to shield those individuals until a vaccine or natural herd immunity reduces the danger to a tolerable level.

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Feds Finally Give Amazon Permission for Drone Deliveries in the U.S.

AmazonDrone_1161x653

Good news for both lovers of tech innovation and pandemic social distancing: Drone deliveries are set to expand in the United States.

When the coronavirus pandemic came to America in March and April, many jurisdictions issued broad orders to shelter in place. Home delivery services were hit hard by an explosion in demand, and they lacked the manpower to respond immediately. Stores and delivery services such as Instacart went on hiring sprees to staff up; in some areas, it was extremely hard if not impossible to get goods delivered.

You know what might have made things just a bit easier? Drone deliveries. It has taken years for the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to allow the use of drones for commercial delivery services. We’ve gone over the course of a decade from a complete ban to extremely slow, heavily regulated, and extremely restrictive initial testing.

Amazon and Google have both been slowly working on drone delivery services, as have some smaller companies. And today, the FAA finally gave Amazon approval for its Prime Air drone delivery fleet.

The FAA did this, Bloomberg reports, by classifying Amazon as an “air carrier” and putting it under the scope of some relatively recent regulations intended to facilitate drone deliveries. The extremely restrictive private drone rules the FAA first put into place required that drones remain in sight of the operator at all times. That simply won’t work for drone deliveries. So last year the agency introduced a special certification process that would allow approved pilots to operate drones for much longer distances specifically for deliveries. Wing Aviation, a subsidiary of Google, got some of the first certifications and started a pilot program to deliver food and pharmaceuticals in Virginia.

Today’s announcement means Amazon will be able to join Google in drone deliveries. The company isn’t ready to start sending out delivery drones immediately and it has declined to state where such deliveries will begin, but last year it revealed its fleet can carry packages of up to five pounds and can deliver in a 15-mile range in less than 30 minutes.

The FAA also recently granted Zipline a temporary waiver letting the company deliver medical supplies in North Carolina. Zipline had been operating for some time in Africa, but the United States continues to lag behind both developed and undeveloped nations in giving drone companies the freedom to test.

Amazon still faces several technical and regulatory hurdles, but it’s great that the government is giving it this new room to maneuver. Too bad it took the feds this long to allow it, especially as a pandemic makes drone deliveries not just a futuristic innovation but something we could really use as soon as possible.

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via IFTTT

CDC Data Confirm That Young People Face a Negligible Risk of Dying From COVID-19

CoronavirusGenericDreamstime

The latest data on COVID-19 cases and fatalities from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) confirm that young people face a negligible risk of dying from the disease, while people 65 and older face a much higher risk. Patients 65 or older account for about 16 percent of confirmed cases but four-fifths of COVID-19 deaths.

The crude case fatality rate indicated by the CDC’s numbers (deaths divided by confirmed cases) is about 0.25 percent for patients younger than 50 and nearly 16 percent—63 times higher—for patients older than 64. While the overall crude CFR is 3 percent, the rates among adults range from 0.07 percent for patients in their late teens and 20s to 29 percent for patients 85 or older—more than 400 times higher.

Because these calculations include only confirmed cases, the percentages are higher than the fatality rates among all Americans infected by the COVID-19 virus, many of whom never seek testing because their symptoms are mild or nonexistent. Judging from the CDC’s antibody studies, the infection fatality rate varies widely from one part of the country to another—from 0.1 percent in Utah to 1.4 percent in Connecticut, for example.

The nationwide infection fatality rate remains unclear, since it depends on how many infections have been undetected. The CDC’s current “best estimate,” based on studies from around the world, is 0.65 percent, more than twice as high as its implied estimate in May. Since the CDC’s antibody research suggests the ratio of total infections to confirmed cases is something like 10 to 1, the earlier estimate may prove closer to the mark.

The strong correlation between age and fatality risk is probably largely a function of preexisting medical conditions, which are more common among older Americans. As of August 22, the CDC reports, 94 percent of COVID-19 fatalities involved “additional conditions or causes”—2.6 on average. Aside from conditions, such as pneumonia and respiratory failure, that may have been caused by COVID-19, the most common comorbidities were circulatory diseases. Hypertension, for example, was noted in more than a fifth of the cases. Diabetes was mentioned 16 percent of the time.

The CDC considers diabetes a risk factor for severe COVID-19, and it lists hypertension as a possible risk factor. Other risk factors mentioned by the CDC include kidney disease, which was noted in 8.5 percent of the deaths; heart failure (6.5 percent); cancer (4.6 percent); and obesity (3.5 percent).

These data reinforce the point that COVID-19 (unlike, say, the “Spanish flu” of 1918) is mainly a threat to the elderly and people with serious preexisting conditions—two groups that overlap a lot. The policy implications depend on which approach to protecting those vulnerable groups makes more sense: broad restrictions that seek to reduce the spread of the virus and thereby make it less likely that high-risk individuals will encounter carriers, or narrower safeguards that aim to shield those individuals until a vaccine or natural herd immunity reduces the danger to a tolerable level.

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In New Tests, Facial Recognition Products Are Consistently Thwarted by Masks

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Ongoing tests of facial recognition technology continue to show that the technology is baffled when people wear masks of the sort that have become widespread (and even mandatory) in some places during the current pandemic. Forty-one newly tested algorithms—some of which were designed to compensate for face coverings—show the same dramatically elevated error rates as those examined earlier.

The tests have important implications for privacy at a time when surveillance technology is growing increasingly pervasive—but so is mask wearing. These studies are of interest, too, in an era of political instability and growing concern over law enforcement excesses, when people may have a strong interest in making identification of opponents and protesters difficult for the powers-that-be.

The tested facial algorithms are additions to those scrutinized by the U.S. government’s National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) in a report issued in July. “Now that so many of us are covering our faces to help reduce the spread of COVID-19, how well do face recognition algorithms identify people wearing masks? The answer, according to a preliminary study by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), is with great difficulty,” NIST summarized its findings at the time. “Even the best of the 89 commercial facial recognition algorithms tested had error rates between 5% and 50% in matching digitally applied face masks with photos of the same person without a mask.”

While an error rate of 5 percent at the low end may not sound like much, that’s under near-ideal conditions. The algorithms were tested in one-to-one settings, of known subjects, like you might find at a passport checkpoint. And most of the systems suffered much higher error rates when dealing with covered faces.

Because of the growing popularity of face masks even before the pandemic, and their booming and often mandated usage since COVID-19 spread worldwide, facial recognition companies have raced to develop algorithms that can identify people despite coverings. NIST plans to test such technology in the future to see if it delivers as promised. But this latest round of algorithms isn’t part of that study.

“These algorithms were submitted to NIST after the pandemic began,” Chad Boutin, a science writer for NIST, told me by email. “However we do not have information on whether or not they were designed with face coverings in mind. The research team plans to analyze the data and issue its next [Face Regnition Vendor Test] report in the next few months, and will continue to report results on new submissions on the face mask webpage.”

But some of the 41 newly examined algorithms are very clearly intended to compensate for face mask usage.

Dahua, a Chinese company, boasts that its facial recognition technology allows for “attributes including gender, age, expression (happy, calm, surprised, sad, and angry), glasses, face masks, and beard & moustache, which makes searching and tracking subjects of interest more efficient.” In the NIST test, the error rate of Dahua’s algorithm went from 0.3 percent with an uncovered face to 7 percent with a face mask.

Likewise, Rank One insists that “accurate identification can be achieved using solely the eye and eyebrow regions of the face.” The company’s error rate went from 7 percent without masks to 35 percent with them in the NIST study.

Vigilant Solutions, which is well known for its vast license plate reader network but makes no claims about compensating for covered faces, went from a 2 percent error rate without masks to 50 percent with them.

Some of the products had error rates approaching 100 percent with covered faces, although these were generally less-accurate algorithms to begin with.

Again, these are facial recognition algorithms tested in one-to-one settings of the sort used to confirm an identity to unlock a phone or at an access control point. “Future study rounds will test one-to-many searches and add other variations designed to broaden the results further,” according to NIST.

Even before that future study, however, we know that one-to-many comparison of strangers on the street or in a crowd to databases of images is much more challenging. It can be thrown off by many factors—including age, sex, and race—even when people’s faces are uncovered.

Such “systems tend to have lower accuracies compared to verification systems, because it is harder for fixed cameras to take consistent, high-quality images of individuals moving freely through public spaces,” noted William Crumpler of the Center for Strategic and International Studies earlier this year.

Getting high-quality images is especially difficult when people are actively trying to avoid identification. And while such avoidance is difficult to pull off at a passport checkpoint or when trying to unlock a device, resisting identification is par for the course at a protest or on a sidewalk. Last year, police in the U.K. stopped pedestrians who covered their faces when they approached facial recognition cameras precisely because that was seen as an effort to thwart identification.

Now, governments are simultaneously ordering the public to mask-up in public places under threat of stiff fines and fretting over the resulting impact on surveillance. “We assess the widespread use of masks for public safety could likely continue to impact the effectiveness of face recognition systems even after federal or state mandates for their use are withdrawn,” a Department of Homeland Security notice warned in May.

Given that the algorithms designed to compensate for face masks necessarily rely on the remaining exposed portions of the face—specifically, the eyes and eyebrows—donning hats and sunglasses may be all that’s necessary to curtail the effectiveness of facial recognition technology.

The technology has raised enough privacy concerns that there has been enormous push back against its deployment. Boston and San Francisco are the largest of the U.S. cities that have banned the use of facial recognition technology by law enforcement agencies. Early in August, in a decision that could have wide ramifications for the U.K.’s growing surveillance state, a British court ruled against the use of the technology by the police.

The news that facial recognition technology can be defeated by cheap and ubiquitous face masks may well come as good news to Americans in the streets protesting biased and abusive law enforcement, or just in favor of reforming the way police do their jobs. Such news may also be welcomed in a country bitterly divided into hostile political factions. Half of the country is bound to distrust surveillance technology in the hands of whoever wins the November election.

That means large numbers of Americans should be pleased to know that they have a good chance of preserving their privacy with cheap pieces of fabric stretched across their faces.

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