Dick’s Sporting Goods Drops ‘Assault-Style Rifles,’ Because Loss and Grief

Today Dick’s Sporting Goods announced that it will no longer sell “assault-style rifles, also referred to as modern sporting rifles,” in its Field & Stream hunting and outdoor recreation stores. The company had already stopped carrying such guns in its flagship chain of stores, following the Sandy Hook massacre in 2012. Dick’s CEO Edward Stack said the company was expanding the policy in response to the February 14 attack in which a 19-year-old gunman used a Smith & Wesson M&P 15 rifle to kill 17 people at a high school in Parkland, Florida.

“Based on what’s happened and looking at those kids and those parents, it moved us all unimaginably,” Stack said on ABC’s Good Morning America this morning. “To think about the loss and the grief that those kids and those parents had, we said, ‘We need to do something.'” Well, this is indeed something. Whether it is something that makes logical sense (as opposed to emotional, P.R., or symbolic sense) is another matter.

The statement from Stack’s company notes that Nikolas Cruz, the former student charged with carrying out the Parkland massacre, legally purchased a shotgun from a Dick’s store in 2017. “It was not the gun, nor type of gun, he used in the shooting,” the company says. “But it could have been.” If Cruz had used a shotgun in the attack on Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School, would Dick’s have stopped selling shotguns? Probably not. So what distinguishes the guns that Dick’s not only has stopped selling but wants Congress to ban?

Here we immediately get into murky territory, made murkier by confused and confusing press coverage. The New York Times story about the Dick’s decision, which as I write is running at the top of the paper’s website, says the new policy applies to “all AR-15s and other semiautomatic rifles.” It adds that “Dick’s is not the first retailer to stop selling the semiautomatic guns.” That makes it sound as if the selection of rifles at the company’s stores will be limited to single-shot models from now on.

If so, that would probably please New York Times columnist Andrew Rosenthal, who (like his colleague Gail Collins) favors “banning the possession of semiautomatic weapons by civilians.” Such a policy would prohibit the most popular guns for self-defense, weapons the Supreme Court has unambiguously said Americans have a constitutional right to possess, along with many popular hunting rifles, leaving mere civilians a choice of revolvers or single-shot firearms.

The selection at Dick’s, of course, will be much broader than that, because “modern sporting rifles,” known to their detractors as “assault weapons,” are just one category of semiautomatic rifles, albeit a popular one. The problem with these guns, C.J. Chivers and two other Times reporters explain in a sidebar, is that they allow mass shooters to “attack with the rifle firepower typically used by infantry troops.” What does that mean? Chivers note that AR-15-style rifles are “fed with box magazines” that “can be swapped out quickly, allowing a gunman to fire more than a hundred rounds in minutes.”

But neither the ability to accept a detachable magazine nor rate of fire is a distinguishing characteristic of “assault weapons,” which are defined by legislators based on features such as folding stocks, threaded barrels, and barrel shrouds. Those features do not increase “rifle firepower.”

Chivers et al., in any event, cannot seem to make up their minds about whether a faster rate of fire makes a gun more deadly. They concede that AR-15-style rifles, unlike military weapons, fire just once per trigger pull, but they minimize the significance of that distinction:

For decades the American military has trained its conventional troops to fire their M4s and M16s in the semiautomatic mode—one bullet per trigger pull—instead of on “burst” or automatic in almost all shooting situations. The weapons are more accurate this way, and thus more lethal.

The National Rifle Association and other pro-gun groups highlight the fully automatic feature in military M4s and M16s. But the American military, after a long experience with fully automatic M16s reaching back to Vietnam, decided by the 1980s to issue M16s, and later M4s, to most conventional troops without the fully automatic function, and to train them to fire in a more controlled fashion.

If reducing the rate of fire allows better control, increasing accuracy and therefore lethality, why do Chivers et al. emphasize that detachable magazines (which, again, are not unique to “assault weapons”) enable a shooter to fire “more than a hundred rounds in minutes”? Why do they think it’s important to note that Cruz “fired his AR-15 as quickly as one-and-a-half rounds per second”?

By contrast, Chivers et al. say, “the military trains soldiers to fire at a sustained rate of 12 to 15 rounds per minute, or a round every four or five seconds.” The implication is that Cruz could have killed more people if he had fired more slowly and carefully. That observation makes a hash of the obsession with counting rounds fired per minute during mass shootings as evidence to support the case for new gun restrictions—including the case for banning bump stocks, which embody the tradeoff between speed and accuracy that the Times says makes shooters less rather than more deadly.

Regardless of how important rate of fire is, it has nothing to do with the debate about a new federal ban on so-called assault weapons, which fire no faster than guns that do not qualify for that label. Even if a mass shooter can no longer buy a “modern sporting rifle” at Dick’s Sporting Goods or a Field & Stream store, he will have plenty of equally deadly options from which to choose. Likewise if Congress follows the company’s recommendation by imposing its policy on the whole country.

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Is This The Dumbest Bet In Finance?

Authored by John Coumarianos via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

In this past weekend’s Real Investment Advice Newsletter, I wrote about financial advisor Larry Swedroe’s excellent article on the “Four Horsemen of the Retirement Apocalypse:”

  • low stock returns,
  • low bond yields.
  • increased longevity; and,
  • higher healthcare expenses.

In his article, Swedroe mentions that high yield (junk) bonds won’t save investors, who haven’t historically been rewarded well for taking on their risk.  Swedroe also says high yield bonds correlate well with stocks, which means they don’t provide much diversification.  Swedroe writes from the point of view of modern portfolio theory, which looks for ways to increase volatility-adjusted returns in a portfolio. In this post, I’ll treat junk bonds a little differently, showing why now is a terrible time to own them. My analysis doesn’t completely contradict Swedroe’s though; it supports his thesis that stocks and junk bonds are highly correlated.

Unlike Swedroe, I don’t dislike junk bonds per se. These loans to decidedly less-than-blue-chip companies are just like any other asset class.

They can be priced to deliver good returns, as they were in early 2009, or not.

Right now, they’re not.

Everyone looks at junk bonds initially by observing the starting yield or yield-to-maturity. Right now, the iShares High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) is yielding 5.53%. That can look attractive to some investors. After all, where else can you get over 5%?

Other people look at the spread to the 10-Year U.S. Treasury. 5.53% is around 2.7 percentage points more than the 2.8% yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury. That might look find to some too. Of course, a little bit of research shows that spread is lower than the historical average of around 5.7 percentage points.

Still, investors seeking higher yield may be undisturbed by a historically low spread. Some people need the extra yield pick-up over Treasuries, however small it might be by historical standards, and that’s enough for them to make the investment.

Yield Isn’t Total Return

There’s one extra bit of analysis, however, that should make investors think again about owning junk bonds – a loss-adjusted spread. The problem high yield investors often fail to consider is that junk bonds default. And that means the yield spread over Treasuries isn’t an accurate representation of what high yield investors will make in total return over Treasuries. It’s easy to forget about defaults and total return because defaults don’t occur regularly. They tend to happen all at once, giving junk bonds a kind of cycle and encouraging complacency among yield-starved investors during calm parts of the cycle.

Default rates for junk average about 4.2% annually, according to research from Standard & Poor’s. And investors have typically recovered 41% (or lost a total of 59%) of those defaults, according to this Moody’s study from 1981 through 2008. That results in an annual loss rate for an entire portfolio of around 2.5%. So the iShares fund’s 5.53% yield isn’t quite what it seems to be. In fact, if we subtract 2.5 from 5.53, the result is 3.03, meaning investors in junk bonds are likely to make only 20 basis points more than the 2.8% they could capture in a 10-Year U.S Treasury currently.

Now, a more careful analysis should consider an “option-adjusted” spread, which accounts for the fact that issuers can call bonds prior to maturity and lenders or bondholders can sell bonds back to the issuer at prearranged dates. This adjustment usually adds something to the spread, making higher yielding bonds slightly more attractive. So we took the options adjusted spread data, and adjusted it for an annual loss rate of 2.5 percentage points. Remarkably, there have been times such as immediately before the financial crisis when investors weren’t making anything on an options-adjusted basis above Treasuries to own junk bonds. Now at least it’s around 1 percentage point.

Still, even with the option adjustment, one percentage point over Treasuries is still very little, especially considering that the option-adjusted spread we used compares a junk bond index with Treasuries. In other words, the 0.50% expense ratio of most junk bond ETFs isn’t factored into the equation. At a 0.50% or so yield pickup over Treasuries, investors just aren’t making enough from junk bonds to justify owning them. Also, advisors pushing junk bonds on yield-hungry clients aren’t doing much due diligence. The mark of a good advisor is one who can say “No” to a client and bear the risk that the client will go to another advisor doing less due diligence.

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Teacher In Custody After Shots Fired At Georgia High School

A teacher was in custody after police responded to reports of shots fired at a high school in Georgia.

The Dalton Police Department tweeted at about 12:30 p.m. that a subject, believed to be a teacher, was barricaded in a classroom at Dalton High School.

No children were hurt or in danger, the police later said.

The police said there is “No info to release right now about identity of the subject who was barricaded or what caused the situation.”

Dalton High School is located in northwest Georgia, near the Tennessee-Georgia border, about 90 miles (145 kilometers) north of Atlanta.

The incident comes two weeks after a gunman opened fire at a high school in Parkland, Fla., killing 17 people and injuring several others.

 

 

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Is Bitcoin Really A Leading Indicator For The Entire Market?

At the start of February, just before the great vol-quake, we highlighted  that a curious correlation was emerging between the VIX – and therefore the broader market as would be confirmed just days later – and bitcoin. We referenced a recent note from Deutsche Bank according to which “cryptocurrencies are closely watched by retail investors, affecting their risk preferences for stocks and other risk assets.” It continued:

Although institutional investors recognize that stocks and other asset valuations may have entered bubble territory (US equities’ average P/E is around 20x), they cannot help but continue their risk-taking. Now, a growing number of institutional investors are watching cryptocurrencies as the frontier of risk-taking to evaluate the sustainability of asset prices. The result is that institutional investors, who are supposed to value assets using their sophisticated financial literacy, analysis, and information-gathering strengths, are actually seeking feedback about the market from cryptocurrency prices (which are mainly formed by retail investors). 

Adding to this, we pointed out the correlation that had emerged between bitcoin and the VIX…

… and added that “the correlation between Bitcoin and VIX can increase as more institutional investors begin trading Bitcoin futures.”

Last year, cryptocurrencies experienced “melt-up,” a situation where prices surged, irrespective of fundamentals, because a flood of investors seeking capital gains outstriped supplies. If the current “triple-low environment” persists, and inflation rate and the likelihood of a recession remains low, we believe this “melt-up” phenomenon could spread to other products, creating massive asset bubbles.

Two weeks later, and just days after the first market correction in years which some say was presaged by the crash in cryptos just prior, none other than Bank of America’s Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett made the same, apocryphal for some, observation namely that “the next lead indicator is…Bitcoin.”

Continuing this theme, last Friday “bond king” Jeff Gundlach spoke to CNBC and said that “if you want to know where stocks are going, watch bitcoin.”

“Strangely, bitcoin seems to be the poster child for social mood and market mood,” Gundlach said: “We had a vertical rise from Sept. 7 which was led and epitomized by bitcoin. Bitcoin started at about $4,500 and went up to about $20,000 or so.”

“Bitcoin peaked out in mid-December and it crashed. That sort of presaged the volatility in the stock market,” he said, noting the cryptocurrency has stabilized recently. “If stocks are going to take another tumble, I think it would be preceded by a bitcoin decline.”

And the punchline: “Weirdly, I’m actually using the sentiment regarding speculative assets like bitcoin as a guide to maybe what the future will bring.”

Which brings us to the 64,000 bitcoin question: are cryptocurrencies really a leading indicator for the entire market, as not only we, but some of the biggest financial luminaries now think?

The answer is, at best, limited: after all there is very limited historical data to use for statistical analysis purposes, and the correlation in peaks and subsequent drop be simply a case of spurious correlation. Still, some like DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas see a distinct pattern emerging.

As Colas wrote in a letter to clients this week, “the notion that bitcoin is a “Stub” asset (the riskiest piece of a capital structure) in global capital markets is getting some traction lately.” The idea, in a nutshell, is that crypto currencies are increasingly part of the financial mainstream (numerous haters notwithstanding) and their fortunes are inherently tied to the risk tolerances that support all assets. “Higher price correlations should therefore follow, even if bitcoin remains a very volatile asset.”

These starting parameters prompted him to update his statistical work on the relationship between bitcoin’s price and the S&P 500.

This is what he found:

Short-term price correlations (measured in 10 day rolling averages) during the recent selloff in US stocks absolutely exhibit a high degree of linkage, but we need to call out a few caveats as well:

  • The 10-day historical correlations between bitcoin and the S&P 500 reached 0.79 on February 6th, right in the middle of the sharp decline in US stocks. For those of you with a statistical bent, that is an R-squared (coefficient of determination, rather than correlation) of 62%. Not bad for a one-variable model, to be sure.
  • This 10-day measure also shows that the relationship between bitcoin and stocks declined rapidly in the days that followed. By February 21st they had turned negative. As of today, the correlation was just 0.37.
  • It is also worth noting that 10-day price return correlations between bitcoin and the S&P have been high several times in recent years, and long before it was widely followed by the financial press. Examples include: February 22, 2016 (0.77 correlation), July 14th 2016 (0.80), April 21st, 2017 (0.81), and September 8th (0.80).

Bottom line: high short-term correlations between bitcoin and stocks are nothing new. (And one word of explanation: financial services professionals typically refer to correlations in percentage terms, even though they are obviously an index between -1.0 and +1.0. We follow that convention in our other work, but we find that bitcoin gets a lot of attention from math/stats people who are real sticklers about percentages reflecting R-squared data. In deference to them, we use their convention in this note.)

Now, over the longer term, there is a statistical story about bitcoin and US stocks being increasingly tethered to the same market appetite for risk. The data here:

  • We’ve included two charts below. One shows the 90-day correlation between the S&P 500 and bitcoin, the other highlights the correlation between US large cap Tech stocks (using the XLK exchange traded fund) and the crypto currency.
  • With this longer-term timeframe, you can see that bitcoin now shows a much higher correlation to US stocks than for much of the last 2 years (the graph starts in January 2016). The lift-off point was in August 2017 when bitcoin went from a history of almost complete non-correlation to a 0.10 correlation coefficient and (more recently) 0.25-0.30.

  • Statistically minded people will note that this translates only to a 6-9% R-squared. Markets people will look at the chart and say “the trend is not the friend” of considering bitcoin as a non-correlated asset going forward.
  • Since bitcoin is a technology as well as a crypto currency, a comparison between it and US large cap Tech stocks is also worth a look. The data shows essentially the same relationship between bitcoin and US stocks, although a modestly tighter fit during last Fall.

As Colas concludes, the upshot here is twofold:

  • Bitcoin seems to track US stocks when they fall (witness earlier this month) more than when they rise. That makes sense to us. A sudden shift in risk tolerances pulls capital out of all risk assets. The same thing happened with gold during the Financial Crisis, when the yellow metal was down in 2008 along with everything else.
  • Over time, bitcoin’s price will be set not by equity prices but by its own fundamentals. The long run correlations show that well enough, and it makes intuitive sense as well.

In other words, while major inflection points in crypto may indicate to a distinct shift in risk-mood, one which can then affect other risk assets, in the long-run the correlation become negligible, it will be up to bitcoin – and stocks, or rather central banks – to justify they prices, whether bubbly or crashy.

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Workplace Discrimination Against Gays Is Covered Under the Civil Rights Act, Says a Second Federal Court

rainbow flag and gavelTwo federal courts have now decided that Title VII of the Civil Rights Act protects people from workplace discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation, even though the law does not specifically use those words. A third federal court had previously ruled the opposite, and the current Department of Justice does not agree that federal antidiscrimination law covers sexual orientation. So there’s a good chance one of these cases will end up before the Supreme Court within the next couple of years.

On Monday the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, which covers Connecticut, New York, and Vermont, reversed a previous panel decision and concluded, in a 10–3 opinion, that discriminating against a person on the basis of sexual orientation is a type of sex-based discrimination forbidden under federal law.

The Civil Rights Act of 1964 does not mention sexual orientation, and when it was first passed it certainly was not assumed to cover sexual orientation. But over time, as court precedents and case law have hammered out the contours of what “discrimination based on sex” means in practice, the door has opened to a broader understanding of the phrase. One of those precedents, a Supreme Court decision from 1989, ruled that punishing an employee on the basis of whether he or sh exhibited stereotypical gender traits is a form of forbidden sex discrimination.

That ruling is now being used to argue that anti-LGBT discrimination essentially punishes an employee on the basis of not engaging in stereotypical gender traits, as in entering relationships with somebody of the opposite sex (or in transgender cases, living as the opposite sex). The majority decision on Monday agreed with this argument, noting in part:

To determine whether a trait operates as a proxy for sex, we ask whether the employee would have been treated differently “but for” his or her sex. In the context of sexual orientation, a woman who is subject to an adverse employment action because she is attracted to women would have been treated differently if she had been a man who was attracted to women. We can therefore conclude that sexual orientation is a function of sex and, by extension, sexual orientation discrimination is a subset of sex discrimination.

With this ruling, the 2nd Circuit is on the same page as the 7th Circuit, which covers Indiana, Illinois, and Wisconsin. The 7th Circuit ruled in a similar fashion for similar reasons last spring. But this ruling is at odds with the 11th Circuit Court, which covers Alabama, Georgia, and Florida, and which has ruled that the Civil Rights Act does not cover sexual orientation.

The Supreme Court had the opportunity to hear an appeal of the 11th Circuit case and settle the matter, but in December it turned the case away.

Now we have two federal districts disagreeing with a third. Furthermore, we’ve got the Department of Justice at odds with the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, which has been supporting the argument that the Civil Rights Act covers workplace discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation and gender identity.

At some point the Supreme Court is going to have to take a case to hear this argument. It seems untenable for workplace discrimination against LGBT people to be a violation of federal law in New York but not in Georgia. This isn’t about a difference in what classes are covered by each state’s own laws. This is an inconsistent application of federal law.

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“The Russians Are Still Coming” – Hillary Demands Trump ‘Do Something’

Seemingly unembarrassed for being exposed as funding the Trump Dossier, having benefited from various meddling efforts by Russia, The FBI, and The DNC during her campaign, and being involved in the Uranium One deal with Russia; failed presidential candidate Hillary Clinton called upon President Trump to act now.. because “the Russians are still coming.”

As The Hill reports, Clinton accused President Trump of ignoring a threat to national security after Adm. Michael Rogers, head of U.S. Cyber Command, said he has not been directed to counter possible Russian meddling in the 2018 midterm elections.

In a tweet, the former Democratic presidential nominee said “the Russians are still coming” and implored Trump to take steps to secure America’s voting infrastructure ahead of the midterms.

“I say this as a former Secretary of State and as an American: the Russians are still coming. Our intelligence professionals are imploring Trump to act. Will he continue to ignore & surrender, or protect our country?” Clinton tweeted.

This was immediately leapt upon by the left with CNN political analyst and Democratic strategist Paul Begala accused Trump of being a “wuss” in responding to Russia.

“Why is Donald Trump, a man so tough he says he would rush into a school shooting unarmed, why is he such a wuss and a wimp about Russia?” Begala said on “Anderson Cooper 360.”

It appears they are forgetting… (via ABC News)

…despite Trump’s rhetorical embrace of the autocratic leader and his regime, his administration has taken some big steps to push back on Russia, including some steps that Obama avoided.

In December, his administration decided to arm Ukraine with lethal weapons, and his State Department has consistently criticized Russia for leading, arming, and supporting separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine. While the Obama administration increased aid to Ukraine, and rallied European partners to slap Russia with international sanctions, it never crossed the line into providing lethal support.

The Trump administration has kept those sanctions in place – and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has said they will remain so until Russia withdraws from eastern Ukraine, abides by the peace deals it pledged to support – known as the Minsk agreements – and returns Crimea to Ukraine, four years after it began its illegal annexation of the territory.

In fact, in June, the Trump Treasury Department actually expanded those sanctions to include 38 new individuals and companies, including two Russian officials, for their alleged involvement in the ongoing violence in Ukraine and the occupation of Crimea. The move was largely meant to bring the U.S. up to date with the European partners’ sanctions and with the changing figures and aliases of the shadowy pro-Russian actors in Ukraine.

In response, however, Russia retaliated by forcing the U.S. to shrink its diplomatic missions in Russia. Trump responded by “thanking” Putin “because we’re trying to cut down on payroll,” again stoking outrage.

But his administration took a bold step, expelling a number of Russian diplomats, and more important, shutting down two Russian facilities in New York and Washington and the Russian consulate in San Francisco – reportedly a major spy hub for the country.

The other foreign policy pursuits that his administration has used to push back on Russia are the airstrikes on Russia’s client Bashar al-Assad in Syria for the use of chemical weapons; the expansion of domestic energy production and the sale of U.S. liquefied natural gas to counter Russia’s energy strong-arming of European neighbors; and more sanctions on Russian officials for corruption and human rights abuses under the Magnitsky Act.

Presumably, nothing short of bombing Moscow would resolve the Left’s insistence that Russian meddling is akin to Pearl Harbor or 9/11?

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“Low Profile” BIll Ackman Is “All Gone” From Herbalife, Building A Stake In UTX

CNBC reports that billionaire (?) investor Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square, which as of February 20 was nursing a -5.6% P&L loss for the year

… and is increasingly desperate for a successful hail mary investment amid rising redemptions and outflows, has been building an activist stake in multinational conglomerate UTX. The size of Pershing’s position, as well as what sort of changes Ackman may seek at the industrial conglomerate, were unclear at this time.

Speaking to CNBC’s Scott Wapner, Ackman said he thought it was a “great” company; news of the stake sent UTX shares over 3% higher.

Meanwhile, the company appears to have preempted the activist pressure and a conference last week, United Technologies’ chief executive said the defense contractor is thinking of splitting up key parts of its business. The comments spurred a rally in the company’s shares the following day.

“Is [United Technologies] a more valuable property together or is UTC better off in three separate businesses?” CEO Greg Hayes said at the Barclays Industrial Select Conference in Miami on Feb. 21. “That’s the question for the board. That’s the question we continue to study.”

“There are, as you can imagine, significant dis-synergies with splitting up the portfolio, as well as one-time costs,” Hayes added.

United Technologies would be the latest industrial conglomerate to explore such a move, after General Electric Co. said it may break out its primary businesses into publicly traded companies.

Ironically, in January, Reuters reported Bill Ackman is “looking to lower his public profile”  after several years of disappointing returns. The hedge fund’s returns fell 4% in 2017, dropped 13.5 percent in 2016 and declined 20.5 percent in 2015, according to its website. As noted above, it is also down 5.6% YTD.

* * *

In separate news, CNBC also reported that Ackman is now “all gone” from Herbalife, and has “unwound” his put position in the company which we said would face a dramatic short squeeze back in early 2013,  when his massive short bet – which became the basis for a long-running feud with Carl Icahn – was first announced.

Ackman famously stated that Herbalife is “going to zero.” Ealrier today, HLF stock hit an all time high.

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Balaji Srinivasan—Technology Will Lead to a Borderless World: New at Reason

“Soon you’ll be able to join a VR world, and earn virtual currency in virtual reality,” says Silicon Valley entrepreneur Balaji Srinivasan. “Which means that, for a good chunk of people in the world, the majority of their waking hours are going to be spent in the Matrix.”

Srinivasan believes that new technologies—mobile devices, cloud computing, cryptocurrencies—are rapidly taking us into an era when geography, nationality, and other limitations on our labor and freedom fade away. He says that this evolution will empower individuals and erode the authoritarian capabilities of the state.

Srinivasan is a modern-day polymath who venture capitalist Marc Andreessen has called the person with “the highest output per minute of new ideas of anybody I’ve ever met in my life.” A Ph.D. in electrical engineering, a co-founder of the genetic testing firm Counsyl, and a Stanford computer science lecturer, Srinivasan was also on Donald Trump’s short list to head up the Food and Drug Administration.

In a wide-ranging discussion, Reason‘s Nick Gillespie spoke with Srinivasan about his current ventures; how the FDA and other regulatory bodies should adapt to new technologies; the controversy over genetic testing and “designer babies;” how the 1997 book The Sovereign Individual has influenced his thought; his intellectual heroes; and how he’s contributing to “Silicon Valley’s ultimate exit.”

Click here for full text, a transcript, and downloadable versions.

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Guns. Booze. War. Abortion. Voting. How Old Is Old Enough?: New at Reason

American attitudes about adolescence lack explicable precision.

A. Barton Hinkle writes:

It is too soon to know whether the Parkland massacre will clarify public attitudes about guns. But we can safely bet it will do nothing to clarify public attitudes about maturity. If anything, the episode has only muddled things further.

In the aftermath of the Valentine’s Day slaughter, some Parkland students have transformed into gun-control activists. This has elicited sympathetic coverage in the establishment press, polite criticism from the conservative press, and vicious attacks and loony conspiracies from the troglodyte right.

Nobody is suggesting the students qualify as experts on public policy. The respectful hearing they have received has more to do with their moral authority as young, traumatized, and idealistic survivors of a horrific event. (And, to be frank, it helps that they have staked out a position with which most of the media already agree.)

At the same time, the shooting itself—carried out by a 19-year-old—has elicited proposals to raise the age at which a person can buy a rifle to 21

View this article.

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“War Is Coming To Southern Lebanon” – Lindsey Graham Warns Israel Is Planning An Invasion

Along the Israeli-Lebanon border, it’s about to get 2006 all over again.

At least that’s what Senator Lindsey Graham told reporters late Tuesday at a press conference with Democratic Sen. Chris Coons – with whom he sponsored a bipartisan immigration bill that ultimately failed to garner enough support from their fellow lawmakers. The press conference was called to share details about a bipartisan trip last week to the Middle East.

Graham

Graham of South Carolina told reporters that Israeli officials made it clear to visiting lawmakers last week that the IDF will need to launch a military action in Southern Lebanon if Hezbollah continues work on a guided-rocket factory being built in the region – a factory that’s purportedly being funded by Iran, according to Bloomberg.

“They’ve told us in no uncertain terms that if this threat continues – they keep making rockets that can hit the airport and do a lot of damage to the state of Israel – they are going to have to go in,” Graham said.

Iran’s decision to help fund the factory is a direct result of the US’s lack of a strategy for countering Iranian influence in the region. President Trump and US military commanders in charge of the battle against ISIS have said repeatedly that battling Iranian agents isn’t part of the coalition agenda.

Because of this, “they are testing Trump,” Graham said.

Graham said the major request from Israel in a meeting with that country’s leaders was “ammunition, ammunition, ammunition” and for diplomatic support

Graham said the major request from Israel in a meeting with that country’s leaders was “ammunition, ammunition, ammunition” and for diplomatic support if Israel strikes civilian targets in Lebanon where it believes Hezbollah is located.

The Israeli threat shouldn’t be taken likely. Over the past year, reporting from the region has exposed an Israeli shadow campaign – conducted in partnership with former foe Saudi Arabia – to push back against Iranian influence in the region, including the implicit threat of military violence.

Saudi Arabia famously forced the resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Hariri late last year, only to see him return to Beirut and put his resignation on hold.

Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu is planning to visit the White House next week, even though his administration is once again mired in scandal and his country’s police force has recommended that he be indicted.

* * *

In response to Graham’s comments, Lebanon President Michel Aoun condemned the Israeli regime’s repeated violations of Lebanon’s sovereignty, saying Beirut is prepared to counter any potential Israeli threat or violation.

Lebanon is keen on maintaining stability and calm in South Lebanon, but it is also ready to defend itself shall Israel carry out an assault,” Aoun said in a meeting with UN Under-Secretary General Jean-Pierre Lacroix in Beirut on Monday.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah, which helped the Lebanese army defend the nation against two bloody Israeli wars in 2000 and 2006, has promised to defend the rights of its homeland in oil and gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean region against any new Israeli aggression.

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