Russian Researcher Plans To Gene-Edit Embryos To Cure Deafness

Five congenitally deaf couples have agreed to allow their embryos to be edited by Russian biologist Denis Rebrikov, who will use CRISPR to correct the defective GJB2 genes that are responsible for their hearing loss. Since both would-be parents harbor two copies of the gene, their children would necessarily also be deaf.

So far as is known, CRISPR gene-editing of human embryos has only been done by Chinese biophysicist He Jiankui. He announced the birth in November of two girls whose genomes he had edited using CRISPR with the goal of making them immune to the HIV/AIDS virus. He was widely denounced for conducting an unethical and risky treatment. Some of the condemnations were justified: The technique’s safety is unknown and the babies’ parents likely were not provided with enough information to give truly informed consent. Despite being reproached for ethical lapses, He has reportedly been approached quietly by several fertility clinics that are interested in offering gene-editing services to their clients.

Since the hearing loss versions of the GJB2 gene are recessive, Rebrikov aims to use CRISPR to correct one version of the GJB2 genes, thus enabling the gene-edited child to hear. Earlier this month, researchers at Harvard using CRISPR successfully edited a mouse gene associated with hearing loss.

One of the chief safety concerns with CRISPR is the possibility of off-target mutations that could result in unintended harms to gene-edited babies. In other words, there is the risk of editing a gene you don’t intend to, producing results you also don’t intend. However, performing the edit at the one-cell stage enables reproductive clinicians to excise and test cells taken at a later stage of embryonic development to make sure the edit has been properly made and that no dangerous off-target mutations have occurred.

Many of He’s critics point out that there are now effective ways to treat and prevent HIV/AIDS—including a possible vaccine—without resorting to gene-editing. Similarly, it is possible to correct hearing loss through the use of a cochlear implant device. It is worth noting that, in the United States, the cochlear implant devices and associated treatments can cost up to $100,000. Although gene-editing would obviously involve additional costs, the price of one cycle of IVF treatments is around $8,000 in Russia and about $12,000 in the U.S.

Hearing loss is not a fatal disease and obviously many deaf folks live happy and fulfilling lives. So should Rebrikov be allowed to proceed with his gene-editing plans? Assuming adequate safety precautions are in place and that parents clearly understand the risks and benefits from the proposed treatments, the answer is yes.

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Doctor Liable to Patient’s Sex Partner …

So the Connecticut Appellate Court held Tuesday in Doe v. Cochran, by a 4-3 vote; you can read the majority and the dissent. Courts are split on this question (and its analogs), as pp. 11-12 of the dissent note. The majority notes that its opinion is limited, though it’s not clear whether the limitations (e.g., to exclusive romantic partners)will remain tenable in future decisions:

[T]he duty that we recognize today … extends only to identifiable third parties who are engaged in an exclusive romantic relationship with a patient at the time of testing and, therefore, may foreseeably be exposed to any STD that a physician fails to diagnose or properly report. And the physician fully satisfies that third-party duty simply by treating the patient according to the prevailing standard of care and accurately informing the patient of the relevant test results. Whether there are other, broader circumstances under which a physician may be held to owe a duty of care to a nonpatient third party who foreseeably contracts an infectious disease as a result of the physician’s negligence is a question that we need not resolve today.

I think the majority is generally right: To quote the Restatement (Third) of Torts:

An actor ordinarily has a duty to exercise reasonable care when the actor’s conduct creates a risk of physical harm.

A doctor’s telling the patient that the patient has tested negative for a sexually transmitted disease creates a risk of physical harm to the patient’s sexual partners—it increases the likelihood that the patient will have sex with them, or will have sex with them without proper protection. (The STD here was herpes, which can be spread even if the man wears a condom, but apparently condom use does decrease the risk; also, herpes medication apparently reduces the risk of spreading the virus as well.) And the risk to the third party is certainly foreseeable.

If the doctor or the doctor’s employees acted unreasonably—for instance (as alleged in this case), the doctor “misread [the] lab report,” or the doctor “misinformed his staff member,” or “the staff member misinformed [the patient]”—then they should be held liable. That’s not some special new legal duty; it’s just the basic duty that all of us have to act reasonably when our actions create a risk of physical harm to others.

The Restatement does note that, “In exceptional cases, when an articulated countervailing principle or policy warrants denying or limiting liability in a particular class of cases, a court may decide that the defendant has no duty or that the ordinary duty of reasonable care requires modification.” That’s why, for instance, most courts have adopted various so-called “no-duty” or “limited-duty” rules, such as the rule in most states that a social host who serves alcohol to guests can’t be liable to third parties who are injured when the guests drive drunk. But I don’t see a basis for imposing such a limitation here.

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“Please Don’t Call At This Time”: Bond Investors Stunned After First Trade War Casualty Plunges 66% In Days

Over a year in, the trade war between the US and China has claimed its first corporate casualty: a large Indonesian textile maker which missed a dollar loan payment last week is putting a fresh spotlight on how the stress from the geopolitical conflict is roiling global credit markets.

On Monday, S&P slashed its rating of dollar bonds sold by a subsidiary of Indonesia’s Duniatex Group (also known as Delta Merlin Dunia Textile) by six notches to CCC-, citing “significant liquidity challenges” after another group company missed a payment on a syndicated dollar loan that had matured on July 10.

The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions are “significantly hurting” the Indonesian textile market, and Duniatex’s liquidity was affected by plummeting prices due to the oversupply of imported cheap fabric from China, S&P also said. The ratings agency pointed to ripple effects from the U.S.-China trade war in part for Duniatex’s worsened liquidity.

“The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions are significantly hurting the Indonesian textile market,” S&P explained in the note. “Following the U.S.-imposed tariffs of 25% on Chinese imports, Chinese producers have started redirecting their products to more hospitable destinations, including Indonesia, from May onwards.”

While the Duniatex sub should be able to make a bond payment on a $300 million note it priced just 4 months ago back on March 5, bond investors aren’t so sure, and the note have plunged to a low as 34 cents on the dollar, after trading above par just this past Friday. If the company defaults in the coming months, this could be the first new bond issuance since Blockbuster that has defaulted before even paying a single coupon.

The stunning fall in Duniatex bonds has shocked bond investors, many of whom have scrambled to allocate money to emerging markets – such as Indonesia.

The Indonesian firm’s implosion also highlights the risks faced by investors as they buy into the region’s junk bond market, which has returned 11% so far this year, the most in three years. Recent bond defaults out of China have raised concerns about the quality of financial reports. One defaulter, Chinese firm Kangde Xin Composite Material, was found to have faked billions of yuan in profit.

Yet while US corporations can easily issue new debt and loans at ridiculously, some emerging market corporations are finding themsleve locked out; as a result more stress is emerging in Indonesia. Fitch Ratings on Wednesday cut its credit score on notes sold by Agung Podomoro Land’s subsidiary, citing delays in raising funds for refinancing. The company’s $300 million 2024 bond fell 11 cents on the dollar to 70.2 on Thursday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“This event reminds us of potential problems outside of China as well, with a lack of disclosure for private companies,” said Raymond Chia, head of credit research for Asia excluding Japan at Schroder Investment Management Ltd.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg highlights that the communication between Delta Merlin Dunia Tekstil and investors also highlights the difficulties bond buyers can face when things go sour.

There have been concerns about disclosure in recent defaults of unlisted companies including dollar bonds sold by CEFC Shanghai International Group and Reward Science and Technology Industry Group. Neither Duniatex nor its subsidiary that sold the bond or the loan are listed.

An email sent from a Duniatex executive to an investor that was seen by Bloomberg News, said “We will try to ring fenced DMDT as the bond issuer” from a missed payment on a loan.

We will update later, please dont call or email at this time, as my Inbox flooded with emails,” the email also said.

So with the issuer refusing to speak to anyone, attention turns to the underwriters: BNP Paribas and Standard Chartered arranged the bond sold in March. A spokeswoman for Standard Chartered declined to comment, while a spokesman for BNP Paribas also declined to comment when Bloomberg asked them how they could underwrite a bond that is set to default without having made a single payment.

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Doctor Liable to Patient’s Sex Partner …

So the Connecticut Appellate Court held Tuesday in Doe v. Cochran, by a 4-3 vote; you can read the majority and the dissent. Courts are split on this question (and its analogs), as pp. 11-12 of the dissent note. The majority notes that its opinion is limited, though it’s not clear whether the limitations (e.g., to exclusive romantic partners)will remain tenable in future decisions:

[T]he duty that we recognize today … extends only to identifiable third parties who are engaged in an exclusive romantic relationship with a patient at the time of testing and, therefore, may foreseeably be exposed to any STD that a physician fails to diagnose or properly report. And the physician fully satisfies that third-party duty simply by treating the patient according to the prevailing standard of care and accurately informing the patient of the relevant test results. Whether there are other, broader circumstances under which a physician may be held to owe a duty of care to a nonpatient third party who foreseeably contracts an infectious disease as a result of the physician’s negligence is a question that we need not resolve today.

I think the majority is generally right: To quote the Restatement (Third) of Torts:

An actor ordinarily has a duty to exercise reasonable care when the actor’s conduct creates a risk of physical harm.

A doctor’s telling the patient that the patient has tested negative for a sexually transmitted disease creates a risk of physical harm to the patient’s sexual partners—it increases the likelihood that the patient will have sex with them, or will have sex with them without proper protection. (The STD here was herpes, which can be spread even if the man wears a condom, but apparently condom use does decrease the risk; also, herpes medication apparently reduces the risk of spreading the virus as well.) And the risk to the third party is certainly foreseeable.

If the doctor or the doctor’s employees acted unreasonably—for instance (as alleged in this case), the doctor “misread [the] lab report,” or the doctor “misinformed his staff member,” or “the staff member misinformed [the patient]”—then they should be held liable. That’s not some special new legal duty; it’s just the basic duty that all of us have to act reasonably when our actions create a risk of physical harm to others.

The Restatement does note that, “In exceptional cases, when an articulated countervailing principle or policy warrants denying or limiting liability in a particular class of cases, a court may decide that the defendant has no duty or that the ordinary duty of reasonable care requires modification.” That’s why, for instance, most courts have adopted various so-called “no-duty” or “limited-duty” rules, such as the rule in most states that a social host who serves alcohol to guests can’t be liable to third parties who are injured when the guests drive drunk. But I don’t see a basis for imposing such a limitation here.

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Judge Rules Florida Can Require a License To Give Out Diet Tips

Want to make money giving out diet tips? In Florida, you’ll have to get a bachelor’s degree and a state license to tell people how to eat better. A federal judge has upheld the Sunshine State’s occupational licensing program that censors diet coaching by those who are not officially deemed dieticians.

The case, brought by the liberty-loving and oppressive-occupational-license-fighting lawyers of the Institute for Justice, revolved around the work of Heather Kokesch Del Castillo of Fort Walton Beach. Del Castillo was applying her training from an unaccredited online holistic health program, offering six-month coaching programs to clients for pay. But she is not a licensed dietician in Florida, and when the state found out about her work, they accused Del Castillo of practicing dietetics without a license and threatened her with hundreds of dollars in fines if she didn’t stop.

With the help of the Institute for Justice, Del Castillo fought back, arguing in court that this licensing demand violated her First Amendment rights to free speech. Unfortunately for her, Judge M. Casey Rogers of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Florida disagreed and tossed her case. Rogers concluded that current court precedents have determined that it’s not an unconstitutional abridgment of free speech rights to require an occupational license to earn a living talking about certain issues, “so long as any inhibition of that right is merely the incidental effect of observing an otherwise legitimate regulation.”

Rogers turned to a court ruling from Locke v. Shore, another case from Florida from 2011 in which a federal court ruled that it’s legal for the state to require that interior designers get licensed to legally practice their craft.

Lawyers from the Institute for Justice argued that subsequent court rulings have weakened Locke, particularly a Supreme Court ruling from 2018, NIFLA v. Becerra, that addressed whether California could require pregnancy centers to carry notices indicating whether or not they were licensed and, if they were licensed, requiring the centers to post notices informing women of the availability of free or low-cost services, including abortions. The Supreme Court ruled that these speech demands were unconstitutional. In the writing of the majority opinion, Justice Clarence Thomas noted, “Speech is not unprotected merely because it is uttered by ‘professionals.’ This Court has ‘been reluctant to mark off new categories of speech for diminished constitutional protection.'”

Rodgers didn’t find that argument applicable here. Florida wasn’t telling Del Castillo what she could or could not say or what she must or must not say. She could give all sorts of nutrition advice out for free. But in order to earn a living giving advice, she needed to get a license, and Florida made the case that there are valid public health reasons for having such a law. Rodgers wrote, “Notably, it is, at the very least, reasonably conceivable that the unlicensed practice of dietetics could lead to improper dietary advice from unqualified individuals, which in turn could harm the public.”

The combination of rulings creates a bit of an odd outcome. Florida can require that Del Castillo get the appropriate degree and pay the appropriate licensing fees in order to legally give out nutritional advice, but it’s not clear that they could tell her what kind of nutritional advice she could give. There might be no difference between the advice she gives now and the advice she might give with a degree and an occupational license. A diploma and a license won’t actually prevent Del Castillo from giving out “improper dietary advice.” Heaven knows the government itself often gets nutritional advice completely wrong.

Lawyers from the Institute for Justice expressed dismay at yesterday’s ruling and promised to appeal.

“The court held that talking with a person about their diet isn’t speech, it’s the ‘conduct’ of practicing dietetics,” said I.J. Attorney Ari Bargil. “The Supreme Court has squarely rejected that sort of labeling game. Giving advice on what an adult should buy at the grocery store is speech, and the First Amendment protects it.”

Read the full ruling here. Read more about efforts to try to censor “unlicensed” public health and nutrition advice here.

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US Navy Shoots Down Iranian Drone Over Strait Of Hormuz: Trump

President Trump announced on Thursday that the USS Boxer shot down an Iranian drone in the Strait of Hormuz in a defensive action, according to ABC‘s Ben Gittleson.

Downed Iranian drone from 2015 incident

Operators of the drone refused calls to stand down, after which it was “immediately destroyed,” when it came within 1,000 yards of the ship according to the president. 

Via Jennifer Jacobs, Bloomberg

Trump added that the drone was threatening the safety of the ship and the ship’s crew. 

Developing…

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This Is Where The Next Recession Will Start: An Epidemiological Study

Submitted by Nicholas Colas of DataTrek

US recessions are like epidemics: they all begin somewhere, and the “tell” is state-level unemployment data. For example, the end of the 2000 dot com bubble hit Connecticut and Massachusetts first – two hubs for the financials services industry with lots of affluent investors to boot. The end of the 2000s housing boom predictably impacted Florida and Nevada before the rest of the country. This time around, the data shows the manufacturing-heavy states of Michigan, Ohio and Indiana are most at risk. No wonder “Dr. Fed” wants to inoculate the region with lower interest rates.

When medical professionals study epidemics, they look for the source of the outbreak. Ideally, epidemiologists want to find “patient zero” – the first person to contract a given disease. Barring that, identifying at least the initial population to fall ill allows researchers to analyze what those people have in common and how the disease spreads.

Today we borrow from that approach to consider how US recessions start, using state-level unemployment to hunt for the “source” of the last 2 recessions. Joblessness is, of course, just one recessionary “symptom” and the transmission mechanism through the national economy morphs as the downturn takes hold. But locating “patient zero” is still useful because we can use the approach to consider where the next US recession may begin.

Here is what we’re looking for:

  • States that had abnormally low unemployment at the peak of an economic cycle after lagging in the prior expansion, showing that the local labor market was exceptionally tight.
  • A dramatic pickup in unemployment even as the nationwide data still looked good.
  • Ideally, this rapid shift in labor market trends will point to regions disproportionately aided by a cyclical trend that, once it started to unwind, caused a national recession.

Example #1: Bursting of the dot com bubble in 2000

  • In January 1993 Connecticut and Massachusetts both had unemployment rates higher than the national average (7.6%/7.8% respectively versus 7.3%).
  • By September 2000, Connecticut had a 2.2% unemployment rate and Massachusetts was at 2.6%. National unemployment was 3.9%.
  • At this time CT and MA had some of the lowest unemployment rates in the country, right alongside major agricultural regions like the upper Midwest (Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, North/South Dakota), which have structurally low joblessness.
  • Six months later, in March 2001, CT’s unemployment had risen by 0.7 points and MA’s by 0.8 points. By way of contrast, the national jobless rate had only increased by 0.5 points.
  • Fast forward 2 years, and CT/MA unemployment rates at 5.4%/5.7% were very close to the national average of 5.9%.
  • See the chart here (link):

Takeaway: these two affluent states with outsized exposure to the financial services industry were “patient zero” for a recession caused first by the bursting of the dot com bubble and then by the recession (with even lower stock prices) after the 9-11 terror attacks.

Example #2: The end of the housing boom in 2007

  • In January 2002, the unemployment rate in Florida was 6.0% and in Nevada it was 6.1%, both higher than the national reading of 5.7%.
  • Then the construction boom started, and unemployment in both states began to fall quickly.
  • By March 2006, unemployment hit a then-record low in Florida (3.1%) and tied for a record low in Nevada (4.0%). The national rate was a good deal higher, at 4.7%.
  • The warning lights flicked on in 2007. FL unemployment rose from 3.4% in January to 4.4% in October. In NV, the jobless rate went from 4.1% in January to 4.8% in October, matching the national number.

Takeaway: these two states saw the best and worst of the mid-2000s housing cycle, and the labor market numbers reflect that.

As for where the next recession will begin, the data points to one 3-state area: Michigan, Ohio and Indiana. Here is how we come to that conclusion:

  • All 3 states were especially hard hit during the Great Recession, with unemployment rates anywhere from 0.6 – 4.1 points higher than the national average. This fits the pattern of our historical examples noted above.
  • Now, unemployment rates in MI, OH and IN are either equal to the national reading (IN) or within 0.3 points (MI and OH). While not yet below the countrywide unemployment rate, all 3 states are experiencing far lower joblessness than the 2000s cycle.
  • Also, workers in these states have lower-than-average educational attainment. According to the US Census Bureau, Michigan ranks 34th in the US for the percent of inhabitants with a 4-year college degree. Ohio is 34th and Indiana is 43rd.
  • That these states are seeing a better labor market with less-educated workers fits well with the national numbers; the only real slack left in the system is in this cohort.
  • Chart of these 3 states versus the national unemployment rate below (link):

Summary point: by this reckoning the next US recession (or “epidemic”) will start with a pullback (“outbreak”) in manufacturing, since that’s the most important growth driver for the economies of Michigan, Ohio and Indiana. Viewed through this epidemiological lens, the Federal Reserve’s desire to essentially inoculate the region with lower interest rates at least fits the paradigm.

Other sources: US educational attainment by state.

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Judge Rules Florida Can Require a License To Give Out Diet Tips

Want to make money giving out diet tips? In Florida, you’ll have to get a bachelor’s degree and a state license to tell people how to eat better. A federal judge has upheld the Sunshine State’s occupational licensing program that censors diet coaching by those who are not officially deemed dieticians.

The case, brought by the liberty-loving and oppressive-occupational-license-fighting lawyers of the Institute for Justice, revolved around the work of Heather Kokesch Del Castillo of Fort Walton Beach. Del Castillo was applying her training from an unaccredited online holistic health program, offering six-month coaching programs to clients for pay. But she is not a licensed dietician in Florida, and when the state found out about her work, they accused Del Castillo of practicing dietetics without a license and threatened her with hundreds of dollars in fines if she didn’t stop.

With the help of the Institute for Justice, Del Castillo fought back, arguing in court that this licensing demand violated her First Amendment rights to free speech. Unfortunately for her, Judge M. Casey Rogers of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Florida disagreed and tossed her case. Rogers concluded that current court precedents have determined that it’s not an unconstitutional abridgment of free speech rights to require an occupational license to earn a living talking about certain issues, “so long as any inhibition of that right is merely the incidental effect of observing an otherwise legitimate regulation.”

Rogers turned to a court ruling from Locke v. Shore, another case from Florida from 2011 in which a federal court ruled that it’s legal for the state to require that interior designers get licensed to legally practice their craft.

Lawyers from the Institute for Justice argued that subsequent court rulings have weakened Locke, particularly a Supreme Court ruling from 2018, NIFLA v. Becerra, that addressed whether California could require pregnancy centers to carry notices indicating whether or not they were licensed and, if they were licensed, requiring the centers to post notices informing women of the availability of free or low-cost services, including abortions. The Supreme Court ruled that these speech demands were unconstitutional. In the writing of the majority opinion, Justice Clarence Thomas noted, “Speech is not unprotected merely because it is uttered by ‘professionals.’ This Court has ‘been reluctant to mark off new categories of speech for diminished constitutional protection.'”

Rodgers didn’t find that argument applicable here. Florida wasn’t telling Del Castillo what she could or could not say or what she must or must not say. She could give all sorts of nutrition advice out for free. But in order to earn a living giving advice, she needed to get a license, and Florida made the case that there are valid public health reasons for having such a law. Rodgers wrote, “Notably, it is, at the very least, reasonably conceivable that the unlicensed practice of dietetics could lead to improper dietary advice from unqualified individuals, which in turn could harm the public.”

The combination of rulings creates a bit of an odd outcome. Florida can require that Del Castillo get the appropriate degree and pay the appropriate licensing fees in order to legally give out nutritional advice, but it’s not clear that they could tell her what kind of nutritional advice she could give. There might be no difference between the advice she gives now and the advice she might give with a degree and an occupational license. A diploma and a license won’t actually prevent Del Castillo from giving out “improper dietary advice.” Heaven knows the government itself often gets nutritional advice completely wrong.

Lawyers from the Institute for Justice expressed dismay at yesterday’s ruling and promised to appeal.

“The court held that talking with a person about their diet isn’t speech, it’s the ‘conduct’ of practicing dietetics,” said I.J. Attorney Ari Bargil. “The Supreme Court has squarely rejected that sort of labeling game. Giving advice on what an adult should buy at the grocery store is speech, and the First Amendment protects it.”

Read the full ruling here. Read more about efforts to try to censor “unlicensed” public health and nutrition advice here.

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The Washington Post ‘s Simplistic Assumption That More Opioid Prescriptions Mean More Drug Overdoses Is Demonstrably Wrong

“America’s largest drug companies saturated the country with 76 billion oxycodone and hydrocodone pain pills from 2006 through 2012 as the nation’s deadliest drug epidemic spun out of control,” The Washington Post reports, citing newly released data from the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA). That lead and the headline above the article (“76 Billion Opioid Pills: Newly Released Federal Data Unmasks the Epidemic”) tell a simple and familiar story: Because doctors prescribed too many pain pills, people died—”nearly 100,000″ from 2006 through 2012, according to the Post, although data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) indicate that the actual number for the drugs the Post is talking about was more like 68,000.

The reality is more complicated. It is clear that doctors, in many cases, did prescribe more pills than their patients ended up needing, since a lot of those pills were diverted to nonmedical use. But by counting all 76 billion as self-evidently problematic, the Post ignores the benefits of opioids for the millions of Americans who actually need them for pain relief—patients who are now suffering because of the crackdown encouraged by indignant and simplistic press coverage like this.

What is the right number of pills? The Post does not know, and neither does the DEA. But since misuse of prescription analgesics co-exists with undertreatment of pain, indiscriminate reductions in the total supply have predictably bad consequences for patients. That ham-handed approach also has driven nonmedical users toward black-market substitutes that are much more dangerous because their potency is inconsistent and unpredictable, which helps explain why the increase in opioid-related deaths accelerated in recent years even as the government succeeded in driving down opioid prescriptions.

It is also important to recognize that the “epidemic” described by the Post is not an increase in nonmedical use of opioids or even in “pain reliever use disorder.” According to data from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health, the incidence of both has been essentially flat since 2002, including the period on which the Post focuses. But the number of fatalities involving prescription analgesics has increased dramatically since 2002, part of a long-term upward trend in drug-related deaths that began in 1979—17 years before the introduction of OxyContin, which the Post fingers as the main pharmacological culprit (although it also notes that OxyContin accounts for just 3 percent of the legal opioid market).

These deaths typically do not involve legitimate pain patients who accidentally got hooked on medication their doctors prescribed for them. They generally involve people with long histories of substance abuse and psychological problems who use diverted pain medication along with other drugs. CDC data indicate that more than 90 percent of deaths involving prescription analgesics also involve other drugs, most commonly heroin and illicit fentanyl. Judging from New York City data, the actual percentage may be as high as 97 percent.

The increase in deaths seems to be caused not by a general increase in the rate of misuse but by an increase in reckless consumption, including injection, higher doses, and drug mixtures. That behavior can be understood only in the context of personal, social, and economic circumstances, including whatever factors have been driving up drug-related deaths since the late 1970s.

The Post implies that there is a straightforward relationship between opioid prescription rates and opioid-related deaths. That is not true even if you focus on deaths involving pain pills. Between 2006 and 2012, the Post says, West Virginia received the most pills per capita, and “West Virginia also had the highest opioid death rate during this period,” which was still true as of 2017, according to the CDC.

But what about the other states that rank high in pills per capita? Of the top 10 states listed by the Post, the CDC has data on deaths involving prescription analgesics for seven. In addition to West Virginia, they are Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Nevada, Oklahoma, and Oregon, and those are not the states with the highest death rates. Within this group, Kentucky had the highest rate in 2017 (10.2 per 100,000), but it was still lower than the rates in Maryland (11.5) and Utah (10.8), both of which had substantially lower prescription rates.

South Carolina’s death rate (7.1 per 100,000) was lower than the death rates not only in Maryland and Utah but also in Connecticut (7.7), the District of Columbia (8.4), Maine (7.6), New Mexico (8.5), Ohio (8.4), and Rhode Island (8.8). Again, all those states had lower opioid prescription rates, in some cases much lower. The same pattern holds true for Tennessee, Nevada, Oklahoma, and Oregon, all of which had lower death rates than states where fewer opioids were prescribed. The disparity is especially striking for Oregon, where the rate of deaths involving pain pills was just 3.5 per 100,000, lower than the rates in most states, even though Oregonians received more opioid prescriptions per capita than 29 states and D.C.

The point is not that pain pill prescriptions have nothing to do with deaths involving pain pills. But other factors are clearly at work. How does Oregon manage to have such a low death rate even though it has a relatively high prescription rate? Why do Utah and Maryland, both of which have lower prescription rates, have death rates much higher than Oregon’s? The answers to such questions could point the way to policies more nuanced and effective than the blanket demand that doctors stop prescribing so many pain pills.

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The Washington Post ‘s Simplistic Assumption That More Opioid Prescriptions Mean More Drug Overdoses Is Demonstrably Wrong

“America’s largest drug companies saturated the country with 76 billion oxycodone and hydrocodone pain pills from 2006 through 2012 as the nation’s deadliest drug epidemic spun out of control,” The Washington Post reports, citing newly released data from the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA). That lead and the headline above the article (“76 Billion Opioid Pills: Newly Released Federal Data Unmasks the Epidemic”) tell a simple and familiar story: Because doctors prescribed too many pain pills, people died—”nearly 100,000″ from 2006 through 2012, according to the Post, although data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) indicate that the actual number for the drugs the Post is talking about was more like 68,000.

The reality is more complicated. It is clear that doctors, in many cases, did prescribe more pills than their patients ended up needing, since a lot of those pills were diverted to nonmedical use. But by counting all 76 billion as self-evidently problematic, the Post ignores the benefits of opioids for the millions of Americans who actually need them for pain relief—patients who are now suffering because of the crackdown encouraged by indignant and simplistic press coverage like this.

What is the right number of pills? The Post does not know, and neither does the DEA. But since misuse of prescription analgesics co-exists with undertreatment of pain, indiscriminate reductions in the total supply have predictably bad consequences for patients. That ham-handed approach also has driven nonmedical users toward black-market substitutes that are much more dangerous because their potency is inconsistent and unpredictable, which helps explain why the increase in opioid-related deaths accelerated in recent years even as the government succeeded in driving down opioid prescriptions.

It is also important to recognize that the “epidemic” described by the Post is not an increase in nonmedical use of opioids or even in “pain reliever use disorder.” According to data from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health, the incidence of both has been essentially flat since 2002, including the period on which the Post focuses. But the number of fatalities involving prescription analgesics has increased dramatically since 2002, part of a long-term upward trend in drug-related deaths that began in 1979—17 years before the introduction of OxyContin, which the Post fingers as the main pharmacological culprit (although it also notes that OxyContin accounts for just 3 percent of the legal opioid market).

These deaths typically do not involve legitimate pain patients who accidentally got hooked on medication their doctors prescribed for them. They generally involve people with long histories of substance abuse and psychological problems who use diverted pain medication along with other drugs. CDC data indicate that more than 90 percent of deaths involving prescription analgesics also involve other drugs, most commonly heroin and illicit fentanyl. Judging from New York City data, the actual percentage may be as high as 97 percent.

The increase in deaths seems to be caused not by a general increase in the rate of misuse but by an increase in reckless consumption, including injection, higher doses, and drug mixtures. That behavior can be understood only in the context of personal, social, and economic circumstances, including whatever factors have been driving up drug-related deaths since the late 1970s.

The Post implies that there is a straightforward relationship between opioid prescription rates and opioid-related deaths. That is not true even if you focus on deaths involving pain pills. Between 2006 and 2012, the Post says, West Virginia received the most pills per capita, and “West Virginia also had the highest opioid death rate during this period,” which was still true as of 2017, according to the CDC.

But what about the other states that rank high in pills per capita? Of the top 10 states listed by the Post, the CDC has data on deaths involving prescription analgesics for seven. In addition to West Virginia, they are Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Nevada, Oklahoma, and Oregon, and those are not the states with the highest death rates. Within this group, Kentucky had the highest rate in 2017 (10.2 per 100,000), but it was still lower than the rates in Maryland (11.5) and Utah (10.8), both of which had substantially lower prescription rates.

South Carolina’s death rate (7.1 per 100,000) was lower than the death rates not only in Maryland and Utah but also in Connecticut (7.7), the District of Columbia (8.4), Maine (7.6), New Mexico (8.5), Ohio (8.4), and Rhode Island (8.8). Again, all those states had lower opioid prescription rates, in some cases much lower. The same pattern holds true for Tennessee, Nevada, Oklahoma, and Oregon, all of which had lower death rates than states where fewer opioids were prescribed. The disparity is especially striking for Oregon, where the rate of deaths involving pain pills was just 3.5 per 100,000, lower than the rates in most states, even though Oregonians received more opioid prescriptions per capita than 29 states and D.C.

The point is not that pain pill prescriptions have nothing to do with deaths involving pain pills. But other factors are clearly at work. How does Oregon manage to have such a low death rate even though it has a relatively high prescription rate? Why do Utah and Maryland, both of which have lower prescription rates, have death rates much higher than Oregon’s? The answers to such questions could point the way to policies more nuanced and effective than the blanket demand that doctors stop prescribing so many pain pills.

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