The Justice Department Renews Its Irresponsible Calls for Encryption Bypasses

A new round of attacks on our right to secure, hard-to-crack encryption has kicked off.

In separate speeches this month, Attorney General William Barr and FBI Director Christopher Wray each insisted that they understand encryption is a necessary tool—particularly as more and more information about us is digitized—to protect our personal data from anybody with ill intent. But both nevertheless believe that apps and tech platforms need to develop tools that let government officials bypass encryption to comply with warrants. Neither seems willing to accept the reality that a back door that lets the FBI in would by its very nature weaken encryption, making it subject to attacks by the very same predators we need to be protected from.

In an address at the International Conference on Cyber Security on July 23, Barr opined [emphasis added]:

At conferences like this, we talk about those costs in abstract terms. They are not abstract; they are real. The costs of irresponsible encryption that blocks legitimate law enforcement access is ultimately measured in a mounting number of victims—men, women, and children who are the victims of crimes—crimes that could have been prevented if law enforcement had been given lawful access to encrypted evidence.

Throughout the speech, Barr refers to “warrant-proof encryption” rather “end-to-end encryption” (which appears all of once in the whole speech) or “quantum cryptography” (which doesn’t appear at all). These are types of encryption designed to make it extremely difficult, if not impossible, for third parties or unintended recipients to access the information. This is an increasingly necessary tool for protecting our data privacy that also has a secondary effect of making it hard for law enforcement to access our private data and communications even with warrants.

This type of encryption also, incidentally, makes it hard for the governments of countries like Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia, and China and others to access our private data. So it’s absurd but telling for Barr to dismiss it as “irresponsible” simply because his agencies can’t gain access. The costs of having your data accessed and copied by foreign governments are not abstract either.

Similarly, Wray gave a speech July 25 at the FBI International Cyber Security in which he insisted that he understands how important data security is, but also declared that government access to encrypted data is equally important:

I don’t want to think about a world in which we lose the ability to detect dangerous criminal activity because a technology provider decides to encrypt this traffic—data “in motion”—in such a way that the content is cloaked and no longer subject to our longstanding legal process. Our ability to do our jobs—law enforcement’s ability to protect the American people—will be degraded in a major way.

Later, he complains: “I get a little frustrated when people suggest that we’re trying to weaken encryption—or weaken cybersecurity more broadly. We’re doing no such thing.” There’s a reason that nearly everybody in the private sector tech security establishment is making that suggestion: because what Wray and Barr want cannot happen without weakening encryption. There is no such thing as a door that only the “good guys” (for whatever definition of good guys you choose) can enter.

Back in 2016, some hackers attempted to show the FBI exactly what would happen with encryption “back doors.” Microsoft had an encryption key to bypass part of its authentication process for its operating system. Developers used it to test new operating builds. The hackers managed to get their hands on this encryption key and publicized how it worked. Their intent was to show the FBI that anything that would allow law enforcement to bypass encryption would ultimately get into the “wild” somehow and that people with malicious plans, be they criminals or foreign governments, would also kick that door wide open. They begged the FBI to pay attention to their example.

Apparently, the FBI is still refusing to listen. We may end up trying to following Australia’s footsteps and making the world a more dangerous place for law-abiding citizens while clever criminals and predatory foreign governments both take advantage of these back doors and use a constantly shifting array of lesser-known, disposable encrypted communication apps that the feds will not be able to stay on top of. We’ll end up in the worst of all worlds.

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The Justice Department Renews Its Irresponsible Calls for Encryption Bypasses

A new round of attacks on our right to secure, hard-to-crack encryption has kicked off.

In separate speeches this month, Attorney General William Barr and FBI Director Christopher Wray each insisted that they understand encryption is a necessary tool—particularly as more and more information about us is digitized—to protect our personal data from anybody with ill intent. But both nevertheless believe that apps and tech platforms need to develop tools that let government officials bypass encryption to comply with warrants. Neither seems willing to accept the reality that a back door that lets the FBI in would by its very nature weaken encryption, making it subject to attacks by the very same predators we need to be protected from.

In an address at the International Conference on Cyber Security on July 23, Barr opined [emphasis added]:

At conferences like this, we talk about those costs in abstract terms. They are not abstract; they are real. The costs of irresponsible encryption that blocks legitimate law enforcement access is ultimately measured in a mounting number of victims—men, women, and children who are the victims of crimes—crimes that could have been prevented if law enforcement had been given lawful access to encrypted evidence.

Throughout the speech, Barr refers to “warrant-proof encryption” rather “end-to-end encryption” (which appears all of once in the whole speech) or “quantum cryptography” (which doesn’t appear at all). These are types of encryption designed to make it extremely difficult, if not impossible, for third parties or unintended recipients to access the information. This is an increasingly necessary tool for protecting our data privacy that also has a secondary effect of making it hard for law enforcement to access our private data and communications even with warrants.

This type of encryption also, incidentally, makes it hard for the governments of countries like Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia, and China and others to access our private data. So it’s absurd but telling for Barr to dismiss it as “irresponsible” simply because his agencies can’t gain access. The costs of having your data accessed and copied by foreign governments are not abstract either.

Similarly, Wray gave a speech July 25 at the FBI International Cyber Security in which he insisted that he understands how important data security is, but also declared that government access to encrypted data is equally important:

I don’t want to think about a world in which we lose the ability to detect dangerous criminal activity because a technology provider decides to encrypt this traffic—data “in motion”—in such a way that the content is cloaked and no longer subject to our longstanding legal process. Our ability to do our jobs—law enforcement’s ability to protect the American people—will be degraded in a major way.

Later, he complains: “I get a little frustrated when people suggest that we’re trying to weaken encryption—or weaken cybersecurity more broadly. We’re doing no such thing.” There’s a reason that nearly everybody in the private sector tech security establishment is making that suggestion: because what Wray and Barr want cannot happen without weakening encryption. There is no such thing as a door that only the “good guys” (for whatever definition of good guys you choose) can enter.

Back in 2016, some hackers attempted to show the FBI exactly what would happen with encryption “back doors.” Microsoft had an encryption key to bypass part of its authentication process for its operating system. Developers used it to test new operating builds. The hackers managed to get their hands on this encryption key and publicized how it worked. Their intent was to show the FBI that anything that would allow law enforcement to bypass encryption would ultimately get into the “wild” somehow and that people with malicious plans, be they criminals or foreign governments, would also kick that door wide open. They begged the FBI to pay attention to their example.

Apparently, the FBI is still refusing to listen. We may end up trying to following Australia’s footsteps and making the world a more dangerous place for law-abiding citizens while clever criminals and predatory foreign governments both take advantage of these back doors and use a constantly shifting array of lesser-known, disposable encrypted communication apps that the feds will not be able to stay on top of. We’ll end up in the worst of all worlds.

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A Ticking Time Bomb For Oil Markets

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

Crude oil in floating and onshore storage in Iran has exceeded 110 million barrels, French energy data analysts Kpler reported this week, noting the number of barrels in floating storage specifically had increased almost twofold over the last two months.

Oil in floating storage reached 56 million barrels, Kpler said, as exports continued to slide, falling to 417,000 bpd in July from 532,000 bpd in June. Oil in onshore storage stood at 55.5 million barrels at the start of this week. This is up by 11 million barrels since the middle of May, shortly before the expiration of the sanction waivers. Onshore inventories will likely continue to rise steadily as floating storage is running near capacity.

Meanwhile, Iranian oil is also pushing Chinese stockpiles higher. From 3.2 million barrels in mid-June, China’s strategic petroleum reserve in the northeastern province of Liaoning has reached 6 million barrels to date.

China has become Iran’s most important oil buyer following the removal of U.S. sanction waivers in May, Kpler also noted. In June, Iran exported oil and condensate to China at a rate of 174,000 bpd, of which two-thirds was loaded after the expiration of the sanction waivers. This month, shipments increased considerably to more than 360,000 bpd.

Turkey is also importing Iranian crude at a growing rate despite the risk of sanction violation action on the part of Washington and shipments to Syria are probably continuing although there is no full visibility on these, Kpler says, as Iranian tankers turn off their geolocation devices in the Mediterranean.

So, there’s more than 110 million barrels of crude in storage, ready to flow and push prices lower. Since the chance of the United States suddenly reconsidering its stance on Iran is non-existent, this amount will only continue to rise. The possibility of it turning into a ticking bomb for international prices at some point in the future may be negligible now, but does not have to stay negligible forever.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2STr2Ky Tyler Durden

Will Any Democrat Stand Up for Free Trade at This Week’s Debates?

President Donald Trump’s trade war is slowing investment in America, taxing American farmers and businesses, and, so far, has not produced any of the new trade deals the president promised.

So it’s little surprise that Americans are increasingly unhappy with Trump’s anti-trade stance. What is surprising, perhaps, is that the Democrats vying to challenge Trump in next year’s presidential election seem mostly unwilling to take advantage of one of the incumbent’s most obvious weaknesses.

New polling data released Tuesday by the Pew Research Center shows that 56 percent of Americans now say the tariffs are “bad for the country.” That’s up from 53 percent in September of last year.

Even more interesting is that the number of Americans who say that signing free trade agreements is a good thing has increased to 65 percent—with majorities of both Democrats (73 percent) and Republicans (59 percent) favoring such deals. Among Democrats, that figure is the highest since Pew started asking about trade in 2009. Republicans’ views on free trade, meanwhile, have recovered to pre-2016 levels.

Other recent polls show similar results. A New York Times/Survey Monkey poll released earlier this month showed that 68 percent of respondents—including a majority of Republicans—said Trump’s trade policies will raise prices, while 53 percent said Trump’s Chinese tariffs will be “bad” for the United States.

Despite clear majorities that oppose Trump’s protectionism and favor more trade with more nations, both major parties seem to be moving in the opposite direction. There’s little hope that the GOP will rediscover the value of free trade as long as protectionist-in-chief Trump and his coterie of economic nationalists occupy the White House. Which gives the Democrats a clear opportunity to seize the high ground on trade.

Some of the 2020 candidates are tentatively trying to do so. The strongest rebukes of Trump’s trade policies, so far, have come from former vice president Joe Biden and from Pete Buttigieg, the mayor of South Bend, Indiana.

“Trump doesn’t get the basics,” Biden said during a speech in Iowa last month. “He thinks the tariffs are being paid by China. Any beginning econ student at Iowa or Iowa State could tell you the American people are paying his tariffs.” Trump thinks he’s being tough, Biden added, but that’s only because he’s forcing American farmers and manufacturers to “feel the pain.” Buttigieg has promised to lift Trump’s tariffs if elected, calling them a “counterproductive” policy unlikely to change China’s behavior while unnecessarily hurting Americans.

Generally speaking, however, the Democrats running for president have criticized Trump’s handling of the trade war and his use of tariffs, while tacitly acknowledging that they believe the problem is Trump, and not the policies themselves.

For example, Sen. Kamala Harris (D–Calif.) told CNN’s Jake Tapper in May that Trump’s habit of “conducting trade policy, economic policy, foreign policy by tweet” was “irresponsible.” But when pressed by Tapper she admitted that she largely agreed with Trump’s assessment that free trade is a scourge on American workers. This week, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D–Mass.) unveiled a new trade policy paper that similarly criticized the style, but not the substance, of Trump’s tariffs. “While I think tariffs are an important tool, they are not by themselves a long-term solution to our failed trade agenda and must be part of a broader strategy that this Administration clearly lacks,” Warren wrote, clearly indicating that she would not rule out the use of tariffs if elected.

The subject of trade was raised only once by the moderators at last month’s Democratic presidential debates. “We need to crack down on Chinese malfeasance in the trade relationship, but the tariffs and the trade war are the wrong way to go,” offered Andrew Yang. “I think the president has been right to push back on China, but has done it in completely the wrong way,” said Sen. Michael Bennet (D–Colo.). “Tariffs are taxes,” Buttigieg said, before criticizing Trump for being “fixated on the China relationship as if all that mattered was the export balance on dishwashers.”

That was basically the extent of the discussion.

Will anything change this week? Partially, that will depend on the questions being asked. The first debate appeared intentionally structured to sideline the incumbent as much as possible, giving the 20-member Democratic field an opportunity to clash with one another, rather than simply teaming-up to attack Trump.

Breaking into the open on an issue like trade will also require some courage from the candidates. Even before Trump came along, Democrats had turned away from the bipartisan consensus that had helped usher in the North American Free Trade Agreement in the 1990s and that stood up to President George W. Bush in the 2000s when he flirted with steel protectionism. By the end of the Barack Obama administration, however, many Democrats (including Warren) were opposing a Democratic administration’s attempt to negotiate the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a multilateral trade deal meant as a bulwark against China.

What candidate might be willing to break with the party this week? Despite his previous comments, it probably won’t be Biden. As the clear frontrunner in a crowded field, the former Veep has little to gain from putting a target on his back. He is likely to keep playing it safe until after the primaries. Instead, look for a candidate like former congressman Beto O’Rourke to make the pro-trade play. O’Rourke is sinking in the polls and probably seeking a breakout moment—and since trade with Mexico is so critical for the Texas economy, it would make sense for the Texas candidate to embrace the issue.

If they are not going to follow the polls, the Democratic candidates should at least be willing to follow the economic data showing that voters are right to favor trade agreements. A 2017 analysis by the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a trade policy think tank, shows that international trade boosted American household incomes by about $18,000 per household since 1950—and that the gains flowed disproportionately to lower-income households. The Commerce Department says that more than 11 million American jobs are directly related to foreign investment or the export of American goods. And the mere existence of NAFTA boosts the U.S. economy by about 0.5 percent per year. There is no doubt that the past half-century of increasingly freer trade has made America better off.

Polls show that a majority of voters recognize the many benefits of trade. But in a campaign in which Democrats seem determined to outdo one another with offers of “free” healthcare and “free” college tuition, free trade may get ignored.

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Will Any Democrat Stand Up for Free Trade at This Week’s Debates?

President Donald Trump’s trade war is slowing investment in America, taxing American farmers and businesses, and, so far, has not produced any of the new trade deals the president promised.

So it’s little surprise that Americans are increasingly unhappy with Trump’s anti-trade stance. What is surprising, perhaps, is that the Democrats vying to challenge Trump in next year’s presidential election seem mostly unwilling to take advantage of one of the incumbent’s most obvious weaknesses.

New polling data released Tuesday by the Pew Research Center shows that 56 percent of Americans now say the tariffs are “bad for the country.” That’s up from 53 percent in September of last year.

Even more interesting is that the number of Americans who say that signing free trade agreements is a good thing has increased to 65 percent—with majorities of both Democrats (73 percent) and Republicans (59 percent) favoring such deals. Among Democrats, that figure is the highest since Pew started asking about trade in 2009. Republicans’ views on free trade, meanwhile, have recovered to pre-2016 levels.

Other recent polls show similar results. A New York Times/Survey Monkey poll released earlier this month showed that 68 percent of respondents—including a majority of Republicans—said Trump’s trade policies will raise prices, while 53 percent said Trump’s Chinese tariffs will be “bad” for the United States.

Despite clear majorities that oppose Trump’s protectionism and favor more trade with more nations, both major parties seem to be moving in the opposite direction. There’s little hope that the GOP will rediscover the value of free trade as long as protectionist-in-chief Trump and his coterie of economic nationalists occupy the White House. Which gives the Democrats a clear opportunity to seize the high ground on trade.

Some of the 2020 candidates are tentatively trying to do so. The strongest rebukes of Trump’s trade policies, so far, have come from former vice president Joe Biden and from Pete Buttigieg, the mayor of South Bend, Indiana.

“Trump doesn’t get the basics,” Biden said during a speech in Iowa last month. “He thinks the tariffs are being paid by China. Any beginning econ student at Iowa or Iowa State could tell you the American people are paying his tariffs.” Trump thinks he’s being tough, Biden added, but that’s only because he’s forcing American farmers and manufacturers to “feel the pain.” Buttigieg has promised to lift Trump’s tariffs if elected, calling them a “counterproductive” policy unlikely to change China’s behavior while unnecessarily hurting Americans.

Generally speaking, however, the Democrats running for president have criticized Trump’s handling of the trade war and his use of tariffs, while tacitly acknowledging that they believe the problem is Trump, and not the policies themselves.

For example, Sen. Kamala Harris (D–Calif.) told CNN’s Jake Tapper in May that Trump’s habit of “conducting trade policy, economic policy, foreign policy by tweet” was “irresponsible.” But when pressed by Tapper she admitted that she largely agreed with Trump’s assessment that free trade is a scourge on American workers. This week, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D–Mass.) unveiled a new trade policy paper that similarly criticized the style, but not the substance, of Trump’s tariffs. “While I think tariffs are an important tool, they are not by themselves a long-term solution to our failed trade agenda and must be part of a broader strategy that this Administration clearly lacks,” Warren wrote, clearly indicating that she would not rule out the use of tariffs if elected.

The subject of trade was raised only once by the moderators at last month’s Democratic presidential debates. “We need to crack down on Chinese malfeasance in the trade relationship, but the tariffs and the trade war are the wrong way to go,” offered Andrew Yang. “I think the president has been right to push back on China, but has done it in completely the wrong way,” said Sen. Michael Bennet (D–Colo.). “Tariffs are taxes,” Buttigieg said, before criticizing Trump for being “fixated on the China relationship as if all that mattered was the export balance on dishwashers.”

That was basically the extent of the discussion.

Will anything change this week? Partially, that will depend on the questions being asked. The first debate appeared intentionally structured to sideline the incumbent as much as possible, giving the 20-member Democratic field an opportunity to clash with one another, rather than simply teaming-up to attack Trump.

Breaking into the open on an issue like trade will also require some courage from the candidates. Even before Trump came along, Democrats had turned away from the bipartisan consensus that had helped usher in the North American Free Trade Agreement in the 1990s and that stood up to President George W. Bush in the 2000s when he flirted with steel protectionism. By the end of the Barack Obama administration, however, many Democrats (including Warren) were opposing a Democratic administration’s attempt to negotiate the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a multilateral trade deal meant as a bulwark against China.

What candidate might be willing to break with the party this week? Despite his previous comments, it probably won’t be Biden. As the clear frontrunner in a crowded field, the former Veep has little to gain from putting a target on his back. He is likely to keep playing it safe until after the primaries. Instead, look for a candidate like former congressman Beto O’Rourke to make the pro-trade play. O’Rourke is sinking in the polls and probably seeking a breakout moment—and since trade with Mexico is so critical for the Texas economy, it would make sense for the Texas candidate to embrace the issue.

If they are not going to follow the polls, the Democratic candidates should at least be willing to follow the economic data showing that voters are right to favor trade agreements. A 2017 analysis by the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a trade policy think tank, shows that international trade boosted American household incomes by about $18,000 per household since 1950—and that the gains flowed disproportionately to lower-income households. The Commerce Department says that more than 11 million American jobs are directly related to foreign investment or the export of American goods. And the mere existence of NAFTA boosts the U.S. economy by about 0.5 percent per year. There is no doubt that the past half-century of increasingly freer trade has made America better off.

Polls show that a majority of voters recognize the many benefits of trade. But in a campaign in which Democrats seem determined to outdo one another with offers of “free” healthcare and “free” college tuition, free trade may get ignored.

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Mystery Airstrikes On Iraqi Camp Were Israeli Stealth Jets In “Anti-Iran” Escalation

Regional experts had immediately suspected the possibility of an Israeli air raid after a pro-Iranian militia arms depot in Iraq was obliterated during a mysterious attack on July 19, and another reported follow-up attack this past Sunday.

The attack happened around 80 km from the Iranian border and 40 km north-east of Baghdad at Camp Ashraf, former home to the Iranian exile group Mojahedin-e Khalq, but now reportedly in the hands of Iranian intelligence and paramilitaries. 

Speculation was rampant in the days that followed as to the source of the ‘mysterious’ air strikes – or what was also initially reported as a drone strike – however, some pointed the finger at an American operation targeting Iranian militants inside Iraq.

Israeli F-35 stealth fighters. File image: Israeli Defense Forces

But now Israeli and regional media, citing western diplomats, have confirmed it was a nearly unprecedented Israeli operation on Iraqi soil — representing a major escalation and expansion of Israel’s anti-Iran operations. 

Israel reportedly launched a total of two separate air strike operations on the camp using its US-supplied F-35 stealth fighter jets. 

According to the Israeli newspaper Haaretz:

Israel has expanded the scope of its anti-Iranian attacks and struck targets in Iraq, the London-based Arabic newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat reported Tuesday.

According to the report, which cites anonymous Western diplomats, Israel struck Iranian warehouses storing arms and missiles at Camp Ashraf, north-east of Baghdad, twice in the past month.

On July 19, the base was struck by an Israeli F-35 fighter jet, the sources added. The base was allegedly attacked again on Sunday.

The report alleges the primary target included a shipment of Iranian ballistic missiles which recently entered Iraq via the nearby Iranian border. 

And though not confirmed, the report further claimed that “Iranian advisers” had been injured in the series of airstrikes. 

Israel has over the past couple of years conducted “hundreds” of attacks inside Syria, which defense officials have claimed were primarily against Iranian and Hezbollah bases, but if this month’s air strikes on Camp Ashraf are confirmed Israeli assaults, it would constitute a major widening in terms of the scope of Tel Aviv’s “anti-Iran” targeting operations. 

The news is also sure to enrage officials in Baghdad, who will mount protests defending Iraqi sovereignty. Israel hasn’t mounted a known significant attack on Iraqi soil since the days of former dictator Saddam Hussein. 

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2Otjb80 Tyler Durden

Josh Hawley Wants to Ban YouTube’s Autoplay Feature in the Name of Fighting Social Media Addiction

America faces some big problems, from endless wars to congressional dysfunction to police abuse to the spiraling cost of health care, housing, and education. Now Josh Hawley, from his perch in the United States Senate, has decided to focus his precious attention on a problem that only the power of the federal government can solve: YouTube’s autoplay feature. No, I am not kidding. 

Today the Missouri Republican introduced a bill that would ban the feature in the name of fighting social media “addiction.” The bill, which Hawley has dubbed the Social Media Addiction Reduction Technology—or SMART—Act, would also outlaw such features as infinite scroll and Snapchat’s “streaks,” which encourage users to engage in unbroken communications with friends. The bill would additionally require social media companies to install time-use dashboards, and it would give the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and the Department of Health and Human Services the power to regulate other features in the future. 

Even for Hawley, who has spent his short time in Congress pushing bills that would give the federal government more power to regulate large tech companies, this is remarkably petty. Hawley appears to believe wasting time on Facebook and Instagram is a problem so big it requires the federal government to solve.

You might not be a fan of social media (I certainly have my qualms), but it seems hard to view this as anything but a wild misuse of federal power—and potentially far more sweeping than the bill initially sounds. Hawley is proposing to empower federal agencies to regulate any and every design and interface decision made by a social media company in the name of protecting some nebulous concept of public health. It’s all too easy to imagine this being abused for political purposes to punish or elevate companies that have fallen out of favor with the government. Indeed, punishing social media companies that Hawley doesn’t like for the sin of creating products that people want to use seems like the point of the bill. This is legislation in pursuit of an obvious political vendetta. 

It’s also based on a misleading representation of the underlying health issues. Framing the issue as one of addiction, as Hawley’s bill does, misrepresents the current medical consensus around heavy internet use. As Jeffrey Singer wrote for Reason earlier this year, researchers have not come to any firm consensus about whether the perception of heavy internet use—something difficult to pin down even when operating in good faith—constitutes addiction. Hawley’s bill effectively tasks the federal government with determining which tech features are good for you and which ones aren’t, which, given the federal government’s poor record when it comes to making determinations about what’s healthy, seems like a bad idea. 

Hawley has emerged as tech’s most outspoken congressional critic. That makes this bill a fairly revealing example of how he thinks not only about social media companies, but about the ordinary users he claims to want to protect. 

Over the past several months, Hawley has proposed bills banning video game loot boxes and requiring large social media companies to seek a federal certification of political neutrality in order to maintain their current legal protections. He signed a letter to the FTC seeking federal investigations into conservative “censorship” on large tech platforms (in the process evincing a fundamental misunderstanding of what censorship is). In May, he delivered a speech titled “The Big Tech Threat,” warning that tech companies are seeking to devour our attention and raising the question of whether they have any social value at all—as if the job of an elected official was to decide which industries are worthwhile and to eliminate any that doesn’t pass muster from the marketplace. 

Hawley has it in for big tech. But this is more than just a petty political vendetta against Facebook and its peers. It is a larger worldview, one that presumes individuals are inherently powerless, that they cannot make informed decisions on their own, and that the government, via legislation and regulation, must therefore step in to protect them from their own stupidity. It attributes wizard-like mind-control powers to tech companies that simply don’t exist, and it assumes that users are helpless to resist.  

Hawley’s bill even warns, in its introduction, that the “design choices” he wants to ban “interfere with the free choice of users.” But Hawley’s vision of free choice requires the federal government to intervene and make their choices for them, down to the smallest design detail.

The problem with Hawley’s bill isn’t just that it’s so pathetically trivial, or that it’s a waste of resources in the context of our larger challenges. It’s that it’s designed to treat Americans like weak-willed children who need a politician like Josh Hawley to tell them how to live their lives. For someone who claims to champion the idea of individual dignity, Hawley has an awfully condescending view of human agency. 

Hawley’s new bill probably won’t pass. Like most of Hawley’s anti-tech proposals so far, it’s stunt legislation designed primarily to raise public awareness and get press. That’s at least a little ironic for a bill that opens by declaring that “the business model for many internet companies, especially social media companies, is to capture as much of their users’ attention as possible.” He’s been in office less than a year, but so far, capturing people’s attention with time-wasting antics appears to be Josh Hawley’s business model too.

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Peter Schiff: If You Understood What This Means, You’d Be Buying Gold As Fast As You Can

Via SchiffGold.com,

Gold has risen to six-year highs in recent weeks as the Federal Reserve has pivoted back toward an easy-money monetary policy. Markets widely anticipate a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this week and the economy appears to be slowing.

Peter Schiff recently appeared on RT Boom Bust to explain why he believes this is the beginning of a much bigger long-term rise in the price of gold. And it’s not just because the Fed is cutting rates.

In fact, they are going to cut rates next week and this is going to be the first step on the road back to zero. And the Fed is also going to return to quantitative easing. But we just found out that Donald Trump is cutting a deal with a Democrats to basically throw out any progress Republicans made back in 2011, thanks to efforts of the Tea Party, to at least try to rein in the increase in government spending. So, they’re throwing caution to the wind. We are going to see deficits going through the roof over the next several years, and that’s even without the recession, which I believe is coming and which is going to make them much, much worse.”

Consider that in the midst of what is supposed to be a strong economy, we’re already seeing record-setting deficits. As Peter pointed out, bigger deficits mean more money-printing and that means more inflation.

All of this is very bullish for gold… If you understood what all of this means, you would be buying gold as fast as you can.”

The host asked Peter where he sees the price going in the near future. He said he doesn’t see much resistance in the price of gold until you get up around $1,800 or $1,900 – the vicinity of the 2011 highs. Peter pointed out that gold came off that peak just as Congress was taking some steps to rein in deficit spending.

Well, now that we’ve eliminated those steps, it makes sense that gold would break out.”

Peter said given the conditions, he doesn’t think we will even see a whole lot of resistance at $1,900 and that he thinks the price of gold will shoot past those 2011 highs.

Peter was also asked about Fed board nominee Judy Shelton’s support for the gold standard while simultaneously calling for a rate cut. He called it hypocritical.

If anybody actually believes in a gold standard, then they believe that the market, not the Fed, should be setting rates. And if the Fed were to allow the market to set rates, rates would be much higher. The only reason rates are as low as they are is because the market is anticipating how the Fed is going to react in the next recession, which is quite imminent. So, I think it’s wrong.

If Judy Shelton really wants to return to a gold standard, then she wants higher interest rates, because higher interest rates is what we would get if we went back on a gold standard.”

Peter said that would be a good thing because that’s what the economy needs.

We don’t have enough savings. We don’t have enough capital investment. We have too much borrowing on all levels. And that’s because the Fed has held interest rates artificially low.  So, if the Fed can no longer do that, then rates are going to rise, at least in the short run.”

Peter said that in the long run, we would get lower interest rates because we would have sounder money, less inflation and higher savings.

But the government has been able to manipulate interest rates artificially lower to boost the GDP, to prop up the stock market and other asset bubbles. But all of that is going to blow up and interest rates are going to go sky-high.”

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/316Z2pH Tyler Durden

Why Morgan Stanley Thinks The S&P Is About To Crash

Echoing Guggenheim’s fears that US equities are in for a dramatic collapse, Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson warns that “…if equity markets fail one more time at our key resistance point, we believe the reversal is likely to be sharper and deeper than one might expect, even if the earnings recession is more benign than we expect.

Via Morgan Stanley,

Breaking out is hard to do.

The S&P 500 remains the pied piper for global risk markets yet it continues to struggle with current levels for the third time in the past 18 months. While our 2400–3000 call from 18 months ago may look vulnerable, we think this latest surge will fail again, as we don’t expect a Fed cut to rekindle growth the way market participants may be hoping,and now pricing.

Market internals remain weak…

While the S&P 500 has made new highs, leadership remains decidedly defensive, with bond proxies and high-quality stocks disproportionately contributing to performance.

Underperformance of broader indices like the Russell 2000, Wilshire 5000,and equal-weighted S&P 500 suggest poor breadth, which is not a healthy development.

… Because fundamentals remain weak.

We have been consistent in our view that growth would disappoint this year on both the earnings and economic fronts. Earnings forecasts have fallen significantly since the beginning of the year and economic surprises have skewed to the downside.

Big disappointments in capital spending and business surveys suggest growth could slow further in 2H. Our economists are forecasting a material deceleration in 2H US GDP vs 1H.

Discretionary investors running below average exposure, systematic strategies running above.

Over the past decade, systematic strategies have tripled in size to $900B, meaning, like a bull in a china shop, they can knock things over when they decide to leave. They may be pushing a rally that is increasingly disconnected from deteriorating fundamentals now, but this works both ways – they could accentuate a price reversal at key technical resistance levels.

Wilson concludes, …if equity markets fail one more time at our key resistance point, we believe the reversal is likely to be sharper and deeper than one might expect, even if the earnings recession is more benign than we expect.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/30Xl3aq Tyler Durden

Josh Hawley Wants to Ban YouTube’s Autoplay Feature in the Name of Fighting Social Media Addiction

America faces some big problems, from endless wars to congressional dysfunction to police abuse to the spiraling cost of health care, housing, and education. Now Josh Hawley, from his perch in the United States Senate, has decided to focus his precious attention on a problem that only the power of the federal government can solve: YouTube’s autoplay feature. No, I am not kidding. 

Today the Missouri Republican introduced a bill that would ban the feature in the name of fighting social media “addiction.” The bill, which Hawley has dubbed the Social Media Addiction Reduction Technology—or SMART—Act, would also outlaw such features as infinite scroll and Snapchat’s “streaks,” which encourage users to engage in unbroken communications with friends. The bill would additionally require social media companies to install time-use dashboards, and it would give the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and the Department of Health and Human Services the power to regulate other features in the future. 

Even for Hawley, who has spent his short time in Congress pushing bills that would give the federal government more power to regulate large tech companies, this is remarkably petty. Hawley appears to believe wasting time on Facebook and Instagram is a problem so big it requires the federal government to solve.

You might not be a fan of social media (I certainly have my qualms), but it seems hard to view this as anything but a wild misuse of federal power—and potentially far more sweeping than the bill initially sounds. Hawley is proposing to empower federal agencies to regulate any and every design and interface decision made by a social media company in the name of protecting some nebulous concept of public health. It’s all too easy to imagine this being abused for political purposes to punish or elevate companies that have fallen out of favor with the government. Indeed, punishing social media companies that Hawley doesn’t like for the sin of creating products that people want to use seems like the point of the bill. This is legislation in pursuit of an obvious political vendetta. 

It’s also based on a misleading representation of the underlying health issues. Framing the issue as one of addiction, as Hawley’s bill does, misrepresents the current medical consensus around heavy internet use. As Jeffrey Singer wrote for Reason earlier this year, researchers have not come to any firm consensus about whether the perception of heavy internet use—something difficult to pin down even when operating in good faith—constitutes addiction. Hawley’s bill effectively tasks the federal government with determining which tech features are good for you and which ones aren’t, which, given the federal government’s poor record when it comes to making determinations about what’s healthy, seems like a bad idea. 

Hawley has emerged as tech’s most outspoken congressional critic. That makes this bill a fairly revealing example of how he thinks not only about social media companies, but about the ordinary users he claims to want to protect. 

Over the past several months, Hawley has proposed bills banning video game loot boxes and requiring large social media companies to seek a federal certification of political neutrality in order to maintain their current legal protections. He signed a letter to the FTC seeking federal investigations into conservative “censorship” on large tech platforms (in the process evincing a fundamental misunderstanding of what censorship is). In May, he delivered a speech titled “The Big Tech Threat,” warning that tech companies are seeking to devour our attention and raising the question of whether they have any social value at all—as if the job of an elected official was to decide which industries are worthwhile and to eliminate any that doesn’t pass muster from the marketplace. 

Hawley has it in for big tech. But this is more than just a petty political vendetta against Facebook and its peers. It is a larger worldview, one that presumes individuals are inherently powerless, that they cannot make informed decisions on their own, and that the government, via legislation and regulation, must therefore step in to protect them from their own stupidity. It attributes wizard-like mind-control powers to tech companies that simply don’t exist, and it assumes that users are helpless to resist.  

Hawley’s bill even warns, in its introduction, that the “design choices” he wants to ban “interfere with the free choice of users.” But Hawley’s vision of free choice requires the federal government to intervene and make their choices for them, down to the smallest design detail.

The problem with Hawley’s bill isn’t just that it’s so pathetically trivial, or that it’s a waste of resources in the context of our larger challenges. It’s that it’s designed to treat Americans like weak-willed children who need a politician like Josh Hawley to tell them how to live their lives. For someone who claims to champion the idea of individual dignity, Hawley has an awfully condescending view of human agency. 

Hawley’s new bill probably won’t pass. Like most of Hawley’s anti-tech proposals so far, it’s stunt legislation designed primarily to raise public awareness and get press. That’s at least a little ironic for a bill that opens by declaring that “the business model for many internet companies, especially social media companies, is to capture as much of their users’ attention as possible.” He’s been in office less than a year, but so far, capturing people’s attention with time-wasting antics appears to be Josh Hawley’s business model too.

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