Trump’s “Greatest Economy Ever” Revised Away By Annual Data ‘Corrections’

Not wanting to entirely rain on America’s parade, after a stronger than expected set of data on growth this morning, President Trump’s much-heralded 3.0% GDP growth in 2018 – “greatest economy ever” – has been slashed by annual revisions.

As Bloomberg reports, updated government figures show that gross domestic product expanded 2.5% on a fourth-quarter-over-fourth-quarter basis last year.

That compares with a previous estimate of 3% and an upwardly revised 2.8% in 2017, the first year of Trump’s presidency.

Slower growth of business investment and exports, along with a greater output in the fourth quarter of 2017 that made the comparison less favorable.

Growth in the final three months of 2018 is now pegged at an annualized 1.1%, half the previous estimate and the slowest pace in three years, as consumer spending downshifted significantly.

Full-year revisions for other recent years were fairly minor and didn’t shift the economy’s overall trajectory. Year-over-year growth in 2017 was revised slightly higher, to 2.4% from an earlier estimate of 2.2%, largely due to higher government spending, higher consumer spending on goods and the availability of new government finance data.

WSJ also notes that, measured another way – total output for 2018 compared with total output for 2017 – the economy grew 2.9% last year. That figure was unrevised from the government’s earlier estimates, and it marked the strongest yearly pace of growth since 2015.

Finally, WSJ notes that the 2.3% average annual economic growth of the current decade-long expansion compares with 2.9% during the previous expansion from late 2001 to 2007, and 3.6% in the 10-year expansion that ended in early 2001.

Cue, Larry Kudlow…

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/32T0jCt Tyler Durden

Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Is a Nostalgic Defense of Movie Violence

It wasn’t too long ago that just about every young filmmaker wanted to be Quentin Tarantino. His 1992 debut, Reservoir Dogs, roiled the Cannes film festival before becoming a cult favorite, and his follow-up, Pulp Fiction, became the first independent film ever to gross $200 million at the box office. Tarantino’s cinema-steeped films were vulgar, violent, quirky, and cool, and they quickly became part of the nation’s cultural lexicon, both widely celebrated and widely criticized. People may not have seen Tarantino’s movies, but they knew his name and knew (or thought they knew) what he stood for, or at least knew the vibe. His early films remain signifiers of the Clinton era, as much as Nirvana and MTV News.

Now in his 50s, the one-time enfant terrible has become a Hollywood grand eminence, a singular voice rather than a generational influence. He makes a new film every few years or so, and for the most part they remain pretty good. Indeed, his latest, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, is his best in years, and it acts as a kind of summation of his career; of his particular interests, from the role of stories to kung-fu movies to women’s feet; even of the arc of Hollywood itself. 

But Tarantino isn’t playing the role he used to play. He used to be a guy who everyone wanted to be. Now he’s just a (very successful) guy.  

In some ways this is a relief. The wave of Tarantino wannabes who popped up to make Tarantinoesque movies—profane, pop-culture-obsessed crime pics—rarely understood what made his best films so exceptional, the clever way he fused talky naturalism with genre tropes, creating a cinematic world in which almost normal people found themselves thrown into movie-ish situations as a way of capturing and collapsing the gap between the world on screen and the real, actual world we actually live in. Tarantino’s imitators got that he was violent and hip, that his characters spent a lot of time engaged in geeky, banal chit-chat. But in most cases, they didn’t understand why. They were making movies about Quentin Tarantino movies; Tarantino was making movies about the very idea of movies—how they work, what they mean, and their place in our lives. 

Yet in another way, it’s a little bit of a disappointment to see his influence wane. Not because we need more Tarantinoesque films (we don’t), but because we could probably use a few more filmmakers who set out to do what Tarantino did: Make films that reflect their own sensibilities and interests, that feel as distinct as faces. For better or for worse, you can see Quentin Tarantino in every frame of every one of his movies. 

It’s not that no one makes oddball indie films anymore, but today’s most successful filmmakers seem increasingly willing to move on to making studio franchise entries that bare only the slightest hint of their personalities. Disney in particular has a habit of picking up successful small-scale directors and putting them at the helm of megamovies. Marvel’s expanded cinematic universe, an arm of Disney, is notable for the reasonably consistent quality of its films, but also for the way it has enforced stylistic conformity. Even the most distinctive of Marvel’s movies—James Gunn’s Guardians of the Galaxy, Ryan Coogler’s Black Panther—feel more like Marvel films than like products of their director’s unique voices. These are still bylined pictures, but they play like work for hire. 

By contrast, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood is the sort of film that no other director could have made. Tarantino has always dwelled on a handful of subjects—the City of Los Angeles, the nature of violence both on screen and off, improbable redemptions and elaborate fantasies of deferred revenge—and this is a movie about all of them

Set in late 1960s L.A. just before the Manson Family murdered actress Sharon Tate (played with wide-eyed perfection by Margot Robbie) and several others, the film is the story of Rick Dalton (Leonardo DiCaprio), an aging leading man who happens to live next to Tate’s home in Hollywood Hills, and Cliff Booth (Brad Pitt), his stunt double, house servant, and ever-present drinking buddy. 

It’s a laconic, gorgeous, and gently nostalgic look at old Hollywood, at its frivolity and ridiculousness and obsession with the low pleasures of cheap violence, and the ups and eventual downs of big-screen fame, which Tarantino surely knows something about. But it is also a defense of movies, and in particular of movie violence. Like several of Tarantino’s previous films, Hollywood delivers catharsis in the form of exquisite cinematic revenge, with the movie itself serving as the vehicle for an operatically violent righting of real-world wrongs. 

This is familiar territory for Tarantino, who has long been criticized for being too violent, too sick, a cancer on the culture. In 1995, when then–Senate majority leader and GOP presidential hopeful Bob Dole complained about two movies that Tarantino had scripted, Natural Born Killers and True Romance, an irritated Tarantino shot back: “This is the oldest argument there is. Whenever there’s a problem in society, blame the playwrights: ‘it’s their fault, it’s the theater that’s doing it all.” Dole, Tarantino complained, hadn’t even seen the movies he was complaining about. 

It’s not too much of a stretch to see Hollywood as an elaborate continuation of that idea. Although it is set in a reverential recreation of late 1960s Los Angeles, its true nostalgia is for the 1990s movie scene in which Tarantino made his name. It deals not only with the role of violence in film, a question that occupied far more of our national conversation in the years before Twitter, but with the coming of a new generation of movie stars and new ways of making movies—the markers of generational change that Hollywood is dealing with yet again. 

Tarantino has made a movie about a fictional movie star coping with becoming a has-been; it’s hard not to see echoes of his own arc as a filmmaker whose cultural capital, while still significant, has declined. 

Yet the lavishly produced, star-studded Hollywood is also a case for his continuing relevance as a top-tier filmmaker, and, more grandly, for the relevance of movies as a means of inducing both pleasure and cultural conversation. It’s a defense of the idea that filmmakers all have something worthwhile to say, even and perhaps especially when they depict violence. Which is to say, it’s a distinctive argument made by a distinctive filmmaker, the product of years of making—and thinking carefully about—movies and their place in our lives. We may not need more Quentin Tarantinos in Hollywood, but we sure could use more of that.

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Google Explodes 12% Higher – Most In 4 Years… There’s Just One Thing

We detailed Google parent Alphabet’s better than expected earnings report last night, but it is worth noting the market’s apparently manic reaction to the data.

First things first, Alphabet is up 12% since last night’s close…

This is the biggest daily rise since July 2015 (Q2 earnings) and is dragging Nasdaq higher (despite AMZN’s weakness)…

Heading back towards record highs…

Adding almost $80 billion in market cap…

There’s just one thing… Despite the stock’s gains, earnings expectations for 2019 have cratered.

Probably nothing.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2ZbNfWF Tyler Durden

This Is What Americans Spent The Most Money On In The Second Quarter

As we reported earlier, Q2 GDP printed far stronger than expected, with US households going on an all-out spending spree and at 2.85%, or contributing 138% of the bottom line 2.1% GDP print, personal consumption soared an annualized 4.3%, the strongest print going back to 2014!

So, as we always do, we decided to take a look at what Americans supposedly spent the most money on in Q2, to find the source of this unexpected spending splurge. What we first found is that, unlike most quarters when there was a decline in spending in at least one category, in Q2 spending actually increased in every single category across goods and services.

Now, traditionally we would expect healthcare – a legacy of America’s aging demographic and the Obamacare tax – to provide the bulk of the upside, but in Q2 we found only a relatively modest contribution, with a spending increase of only $15.3 billion compared to Q1. Another surprise was that at a time when auto dealers continue to report declining auto sales on a Y/Y basis, spending on motor vehicles and parts somehow increased by $19.7 billion in the quarter.

But what was the main driver of spending in the second quarter? Well, for some inexplicable reason, in Q2 the American consumer was scrambling to buy… recreational vehicles!?

Here is the breakdown of all the categories that constituted Personal Consumption in the second quarter:

Regular readers will recall that this is not the first time this particular category emerged as a surprise top spending category: both two and three years ago, in Q1 of 2016 and then again in Q1 of 2017, Americans inexplicably again splurged on RVs.

If it wasn’t for the inexplicable splurge on RVs, GDP would have missed expectations of a 1.8% increase.

To be sure, the farcical surge in RV purchases sure would explain why the housing recovery, overdue by about 5 years, still fails to materialize.

Yet what is most perplexing in light of the “data”, is that just two days ago we reported that the RV industry has taken a massive blow from President Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum and other retaliatory duties on thousands of Chinese-made RV parts, from electronics to LED lights to vinyl.

Indeed, at the micro, bottom-up level, domestic shipments of RVs to dealers plummeted 22% in the first five months of this year, compared to the same period last year, after dropping 4% in 2018, according to the Recreational Vehicle Industry Association. As we added “the RV industry’s crisis shows how President Trump’s trade war has backfired, hurting the industry he promised to protect.”

Tariff-related price hikes have forced RV manufacturers to pass on costs to dealerships, which in turn the American consumer bears the brunt of the tariff, has slowed sales at dealers who are cutting orders and laying off workers.

But it’s not just us who pointed out the plunge in RV sales: Michael Hicks, a Ball State University economist who tracks the industry, warned that the collapse in RV shipments could indicate a wider economic downturn. Hicks said shipments had fallen sharply just before the last three U.S. recessions.

“The RV industry is a great bellwether of the economy,” said Hicks, because the vehicles are an expensive and discretionary purchase, easily delayed by consumers who start to worry about their financial stability.

The paradox: while RV sales are crashing, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (i.e., the US government), used this very data set to represent that the US consumer is not only alive and well, but spending more than at any time in the past 5 years!

Surely when looking at such grotesque data manipulation, China can only stand in silent awe and watch as the US shows the world how data fudging is truly done, when the president has a political axe to grind and will steamroll any and all data just to prove that America is great again.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2ZevhT9 Tyler Durden

Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Is a Nostalgic Defense of Movie Violence

It wasn’t too long ago that just about every young filmmaker wanted to be Quentin Tarantino. His 1992 debut, Reservoir Dogs, roiled the Cannes film festival before becoming a cult favorite, and his follow-up, Pulp Fiction, became the first independent film ever to gross $200 million at the box office. Tarantino’s cinema-steeped films were vulgar, violent, quirky, and cool, and they quickly became part of the nation’s cultural lexicon, both widely celebrated and widely criticized. People may not have seen Tarantino’s movies, but they knew his name and knew (or thought they knew) what he stood for, or at least knew the vibe. His early films remain signifiers of the Clinton era, as much as Nirvana and MTV News.

Now in his 50s, the one-time enfant terrible has become a Hollywood grand eminence, a singular voice rather than a generational influence. He makes a new film every few years or so, and for the most part they remain pretty good. Indeed, his latest, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, is his best in years, and it acts as a kind of summation of his career; of his particular interests, from the role of stories to kung-fu movies to women’s feet; even of the arc of Hollywood itself. 

But Tarantino isn’t playing the role he used to play. He used to be a guy who everyone wanted to be. Now he’s just a (very successful) guy.  

In some ways this is a relief. The wave of Tarantino wannabes who popped up to make Tarantinoesque movies—profane, pop-culture-obsessed crime pics—rarely understood what made his best films so exceptional, the clever way he fused talky naturalism with genre tropes, creating a cinematic world in which almost normal people found themselves thrown into movie-ish situations as a way of capturing and collapsing the gap between the world on screen and the real, actual world we actually live in. Tarantino’s imitators got that he was violent and hip, that his characters spent a lot of time engaged in geeky, banal chit-chat. But in most cases, they didn’t understand why. They were making movies about Quentin Tarantino movies; Tarantino was making movies about the very idea of movies—how they work, what they mean, and their place in our lives. 

Yet in another way, it’s a little bit of a disappointment to see his influence wane. Not because we need more Tarantinoesque films (we don’t), but because we could probably use a few more filmmakers who set out to do what Tarantino did: Make films that reflect their own sensibilities and interests, that feel as distinct as faces. For better or for worse, you can see Quentin Tarantino in every frame of every one of his movies. 

It’s not that no one makes oddball indie films anymore, but today’s most successful filmmakers seem increasingly willing to move on to making studio franchise entries that bare only the slightest hint of their personalities. Disney in particular has a habit of picking up successful small-scale directors and putting them at the helm of megamovies. Marvel’s expanded cinematic universe, an arm of Disney, is notable for the reasonably consistent quality of its films, but also for the way it has enforced stylistic conformity. Even the most distinctive of Marvel’s movies—James Gunn’s Guardians of the Galaxy, Ryan Coogler’s Black Panther—feel more like Marvel films than like products of their director’s unique voices. These are still bylined pictures, but they play like work for hire. 

By contrast, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood is the sort of film that no other director could have made. Tarantino has always dwelled on a handful of subjects—the City of Los Angeles, the nature of violence both on screen and off, improbable redemptions and elaborate fantasies of deferred revenge—and this is a movie about all of them

Set in late 1960s L.A. just before the Manson Family murdered actress Sharon Tate (played with wide-eyed perfection by Margot Robbie) and several others, the film is the story of Rick Dalton (Leonardo DiCaprio), an aging leading man who happens to live next to Tate’s home in Hollywood Hills, and Cliff Booth (Brad Pitt), his stunt double, house servant, and ever-present drinking buddy. 

It’s a laconic, gorgeous, and gently nostalgic look at old Hollywood, at its frivolity and ridiculousness and obsession with the low pleasures of cheap violence, and the ups and eventual downs of big-screen fame, which Tarantino surely knows something about. But it is also a defense of movies, and in particular of movie violence. Like several of Tarantino’s previous films, Hollywood delivers catharsis in the form of exquisite cinematic revenge, with the movie itself serving as the vehicle for an operatically violent righting of real-world wrongs. 

This is familiar territory for Tarantino, who has long been criticized for being too violent, too sick, a cancer on the culture. In 1995, when then–Senate majority leader and GOP presidential hopeful Bob Dole complained about two movies that Tarantino had scripted, Natural Born Killers and True Romance, an irritated Tarantino shot back: “This is the oldest argument there is. Whenever there’s a problem in society, blame the playwrights: ‘it’s their fault, it’s the theater that’s doing it all.” Dole, Tarantino complained, hadn’t even seen the movies he was complaining about. 

It’s not too much of a stretch to see Hollywood as an elaborate continuation of that idea. Although it is set in a reverential recreation of late 1960s Los Angeles, its true nostalgia is for the 1990s movie scene in which Tarantino made his name. It deals not only with the role of violence in film, a question that occupied far more of our national conversation in the years before Twitter, but with the coming of a new generation of movie stars and new ways of making movies—the markers of generational change that Hollywood is dealing with yet again. 

Tarantino has made a movie about a fictional movie star coping with becoming a has-been; it’s hard not to see echoes of his own arc as a filmmaker whose cultural capital, while still significant, has declined. 

Yet the lavishly produced, star-studded Hollywood is also a case for his continuing relevance as a top-tier filmmaker, and, more grandly, for the relevance of movies as a means of inducing both pleasure and cultural conversation. It’s a defense of the idea that filmmakers all have something worthwhile to say, even and perhaps especially when they depict violence. Which is to say, it’s a distinctive argument made by a distinctive filmmaker, the product of years of making—and thinking carefully about—movies and their place in our lives. We may not need more Quentin Tarantinos in Hollywood, but we sure could use more of that.

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Media Overhypes Russian Hacking, Again

The headlines sound pretty bad. “Russia Targeted Elections Systems in All 50 States,” says The New York Times. “New Senate Intelligence report shows ‘extensive’ Russia 2016 election interference,” reports Vox.

What these and many other fearmongering headlines leave out is that while Russians may have targeted state elections systems in 2016, there’s zero evidence that they actually managed to interfere. We have no reason to believe that votes were changed or deleted, that voters were purged from rolls, that voter information was modified. And the assessment that all 50 states were targeted is just a guess—according to the Senate Intelligence Committee report, officials could not “ascertain a pattern to the states targeted, lending credence to [Homeland Security’s] latest assessment that all 50 states probably were scanned.”

What the report does say is that Russia conducted “an unprecedented level of activity against state election infrastructure,” potentially to try and find vulnerabilities. But actually finding those vulnerabilities is another thing.

According to the report—released Thursday with extensive redactions—there were only two states, including Illinois, where “Russian-affiliated cyber actors gained access to election infrastructure systems” and accomplished some “successful extraction of voter data. However, none of these systems were involved in vote tallying.” Much of this interference took place after the 2016 election.

Mostly, Moscow is accused of a “reconnaissance” mission in which it snooped on how states’ election-related infrastructure was set up. The report quotes Samuel Liles, who told the committee that most of the activity was “simple scanning for vulnerabilities, analogous to somebody walking down the street and looking to see if you are home. A small number of systems were unsuccessfully exploited, as though somebody had rattled the doorknob but was unable to get in.”

The report says many states have “interpreted the events of 2016 as a success story: firewalls deflected the hostile activity, as they were supposed to, so the threat was not an issue.”

“While the Committee does not know with confidence what Moscow’s intentions were, Russia may have been probing vulnerabilities in voting systems to exploit later,” it continues. “Alternatively, Moscow may have sought to undermine confidence in the 2016 U.S. elections simply through the discovery of their activity.”

The attempts alone certainly aren’t reassuring—especially when coupled with the fact that, as Robert Mueller put in Wednesday, other “countries are developing capability to replicate what the Russians have done.” It presents a strong case that we need to continue shoring up our election infrastructure and to be vigilant about potential threats. (To this end, Congress has already approved $380 million in grants to aid states in making their systems more secure, and Homeland Security has been working with states to “deploy resources to assist in securing elections.” )

But it’s disingenuous to hype the new Senate report as some sort of bombshell or to imply, as many outlets have done in their headlines and opening paragraphs, that Russia did more than merely target state election systems. The report states on the first page that the Senate Intelligence Committee “has seen no evidence that any voters were changed or that any voting machines were manipulated.”

The Times says that “some administration officials have suggested that the issue is not getting enough high-level attention because President Trump equates any public discussion of malign Russian election activity with questions about the legitimacy of his victory.” Trump wouldn’t be entirely wrong there, to judge from some of the more breathless reporting on this story.


FREE MINDS

Polk County, Florida, arrests victims of sexual exploitation. Another “anti–sex trafficking” sting in Florida that’s actually aimed at adults engaging in voluntary activity. Dubbed “Operation No Spring Fling,” the Polk County operation led to 154 arrests. Sheriff Grady Judd said the primary goal of the sting was “to rescue victims of human trafficking and to arrest people that are buying human beings.” Instead, Judd and his team arrested the victims, as The Appeal reports:

three people out of the 154 arrested as a result of the sting were considered possible victims of human trafficking. Of those, two women, a 17-year-old and a 23-year-old, were charged with unspecific crimes. The vast majority of people arrested…were charged with solicitation, and their mugshots were displayed on a banner during the sheriff’s press conference and subsequently published online by local newspapers.

More here.


FREE MARKETS

Websites are being targeted with lawsuits for violating the Americans with Disabilities Act if they are not accessible to blind visitors. The issue may make it to the U.S. Supreme Court. From CNBC:

Businesses, including Domino’s, say the lawsuits are a nuisance, and argue that the federal government has not yet put out rules governing how to make their web platforms ADA compliant. But disabled groups and individuals argue that clear international standards exist, and companies must follow them or find another way to make their sites accessible.

CNBC notes that “the official website for Beyonce is among the many targeted by accessibility lawsuits.”


QUICK HITS

from Latest – Reason.com https://ift.tt/2Zey92t
via IFTTT

Media Overhypes Russian Hacking, Again

The headlines sound pretty bad. “Russia Targeted Elections Systems in All 50 States,” says The New York Times. “New Senate Intelligence report shows ‘extensive’ Russia 2016 election interference,” reports Vox.

What these and many other fearmongering headlines leave out is that while Russians may have targeted state elections systems in 2016, there’s zero evidence that they actually managed to interfere. We have no reason to believe that votes were changed or deleted, that voters were purged from rolls, that voter information was modified. And the assessment that all 50 states were targeted is just a guess—according to the Senate Intelligence Committee report, officials could not “ascertain a pattern to the states targeted, lending credence to [Homeland Security’s] latest assessment that all 50 states probably were scanned.”

What the report does say is that Russia conducted “an unprecedented level of activity against state election infrastructure,” potentially to try and find vulnerabilities. But actually finding those vulnerabilities is another thing.

According to the report—released Thursday with extensive redactions—there were only two states, including Illinois, where “Russian-affiliated cyber actors gained access to election infrastructure systems” and accomplished some “successful extraction of voter data. However, none of these systems were involved in vote tallying.” Much of this interference took place after the 2016 election.

Mostly, Moscow is accused of a “reconnaissance” mission in which it snooped on how states’ election-related infrastructure was set up. The report quotes Samuel Liles, who told the committee that most of the activity was “simple scanning for vulnerabilities, analogous to somebody walking down the street and looking to see if you are home. A small number of systems were unsuccessfully exploited, as though somebody had rattled the doorknob but was unable to get in.”

The report says many states have “interpreted the events of 2016 as a success story: firewalls deflected the hostile activity, as they were supposed to, so the threat was not an issue.”

“While the Committee does not know with confidence what Moscow’s intentions were, Russia may have been probing vulnerabilities in voting systems to exploit later,” it continues. “Alternatively, Moscow may have sought to undermine confidence in the 2016 U.S. elections simply through the discovery of their activity.”

The attempts alone certainly aren’t reassuring—especially when coupled with the fact that, as Robert Mueller put in Wednesday, other “countries are developing capability to replicate what the Russians have done.” It presents a strong case that we need to continue shoring up our election infrastructure and to be vigilant about potential threats. (To this end, Congress has already approved $380 million in grants to aid states in making their systems more secure, and Homeland Security has been working with states to “deploy resources to assist in securing elections.” )

But it’s disingenuous to hype the new Senate report as some sort of bombshell or to imply, as many outlets have done in their headlines and opening paragraphs, that Russia did more than merely target state election systems. The report states on the first page that the Senate Intelligence Committee “has seen no evidence that ny voters were changed or that any voting machines were manipulated.”

The Times says that “some administration officials have suggested that the issue is not getting enough high-level attention because President Trump equates any public discussion of malign Russian election activity with questions about the legitimacy of his victory.” Trump wouldn’t be entirely wrong there, to judge from some of the more breathless reporting on this story.


FREE MINDS

Polk County, Florida, arrests victims of sexual exploitation. Another “anti–sex trafficking” sting in Florida that’s actually aimed at adults engaging in voluntary activity. Dubbed “Operation No Spring Fling,” the Polk County operation led to 154 arrests. Sheriff Grady Judd said the primary goal of the sting was “to rescue victims of human trafficking and to arrest people that are buying human beings.” Instead, Judd and his team arrested the victims, as The Appeal reports:

three people out of the 154 arrested as a result of the sting were considered possible victims of human trafficking. Of those, two women, a 17-year-old and a 23-year-old, were charged with unspecific crimes. The vast majority of people arrested…were charged with solicitation, and their mugshots were displayed on a banner during the sheriff’s press conference and subsequently published online by local newspapers.

More here.


FREE MARKETS

Websites are being targeted with lawsuits for violating the Americans with Disabilities Act if they are not accessible to blind visitors. The issue may make it to the U.S. Supreme Court. From CNBC:

Businesses, including Domino’s, say the lawsuits are a nuisance, and argue that the federal government has not yet put out rules governing how to make their web platforms ADA compliant. But disabled groups and individuals argue that clear international standards exist, and companies must follow them or find another way to make their sites accessible.

CNBC notes that “the official website for Beyonce is among the many targeted by accessibility lawsuits.”


QUICK HITS

from Latest – Reason.com https://ift.tt/2Zey92t
via IFTTT

James Clapper Suggests Mueller Was “Just A Figurehead” And Didn’t Even Write His Own Report

Former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said on Thursday that Robert Mueller could just be a “figurehead” who may not have been involved in writing “his” own report, according to The Gateway Pundit.

The comments came during a CNN interview discussing why Robert Mueller didn’t seem to have “command” over the report’s contents while testifying on Capitol Hill yesterday. 

Clapper was heavily involved in the coup against President Donald Trump and was an advocate for the Russia hoax theory earlier on.

Mueller’s role was likely more of a “CEO”, he said. “I think his role as a special prosecutor was a lot more like a CEO where he oversaw the operations but did not engage in interrogating witnesses or actually writing the report.”

And naturally, as the article asks, if Mueller didn’t write the report, was it left to the anti-Trump zealots that filled his team? The piece notes that nearly “every single prosecutor on Mueller’s team was a Hillary/Obama donor.”

Lead prosecutor Andrew Weissman was with Hillary Clinton on election night and praised acting AG Sally Yates for not enforcing Trump’s travel ban. Aaron Zebley, another Mueller team member, represented the IT aide that smashed Clinton’s Blackberrys while under subpoena. 

Zebley was next to Mueller on Wednesday to “advise” him on questions and was clearly more well versed on the report than Mueller himself was. 

Mueller’s embarrassing testimony – during which he admitted he wasn’t even familiar with Fusion GPS – is being panned not only by conservatives, but also by Democrats, as we reported yesterday. 

Conservative columnist Byron York wrote yesterday:

“Mueller’s performance raised questions that reached far beyond one appearance before one committee. It called into doubt the degree to which Mueller was in charge of the entire special counsel investigation.” 

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2SFpQdH Tyler Durden

“Yellow Light” – Is The Credit Market Finally Reversing

Grant’s Almost Daily, submitted by Grant’s Interest Rate Observer

Keep digging

Yesterday, the European Central Bank held a stand-pat meeting, keeping the benchmark deposit rate at negative 40 basis points.

However, ECB president Mario Draghi indicated that rate cuts and a resumption of asset purchases are on tap for September.  In the accompanying presser, the outgoing ECB chief captured the mood of central bank-levitated markets, stating that: “it’s difficult to be too gloomy today,” while the outlook “is getting worse and worse.” The German 10-year yield traded as low as negative 42 basis points, briefly crossing below the 40 basis point deposit rate. 

While sovereign debt holders continue to rack up mark-to-market gains, not everyone is enamored with the prospect of still-more negative interest rates.

“We already have a devastating interest rate situation today, the end of which is unforeseeable,” Peter Schneider, who represents banks in the south-eastern German state of Baden-Württemburg, told Bloomberg yesterday.

“If the ECB aggravates this course, that would hit not only the entire financial sector hard, but especially savers.”

Meanwhile, policymakers down under attempt to quantify the practical limits of negative policy rates. In a paper written to New Zealand finance minister Grant Robertson in January and recently released to the public, staffers in the Treasury Department concluded:

“The Reserve Bank expect rates could only fall at most 35 basis points below zero before risking the hoarding of physical cash.”

Today, the global stock of negative-yielding debt rose to $13.74 trillion, a new record.

Yellow light

As we close out month 121 of the longest economic expansion on record, let’s take a look at the state of U.S. corporate credit.  Year to date, investment-grade bonds have generated a whopping 12.3% total return, while high-yield has returned 10.6%. Leveraged loans have lagged far behind, with the LSTA Index gaining just 3.3% so far this year.

That standout performance from investment-grade comes as fears of an economic slowdown percolate, while the Fed’s dovish turn has raised the relative value proposition for fixed rate IG and high-yield bonds over floating-rate loans. U.S. leveraged loan funds saw a $446 million outflow for the week ended July 17 according to Lipper, extending the streak of withdrawals to 35 straight weeks. 

As loan demand cools, yields for the most creditworthy portion of collateralized loan obligations (which purchase and securitize leveraged loans; see the Sept. 7, 2018 edition of Grant’s for more) continue to climb. According to S&P’s LCD unit, spreads of triple-A CLO tranches reached a post-crisis low of 93 basis points above Libor in March, from 130 basis points in February 2017.  Since then, they have reversed higher, with the index rising to 109 basis points in May, while some recent issues have come in well above that.  Oaktree Capital Management L.P.’s CLO 3 triple-A tranche priced at 128 basis points above Libor on July 17, and Pikes Peak CLO 4 saw its triple-A slice set at 137 basis points over Libor on July 12. 

While high yield has enjoyed a gangbusters 2019, investors have retained some reticence, as a Bloomberg story from July 18 notes that buyers are prioritizing “large, liquid issues as the economy slows. That defensive posture has led to oversubscribed offerings from higher-rated and well-known borrowers.”  Sure enough, the triple-C-rated cohort of the high-yield index has lagged the group, logging a year-to-date gain of 7.6%. Despite that quasi-defensive posture on the part of investors, high-yield remains “extremely overvalued,” according to an analysis yesterday from Marty Fridson, chief investment officer of Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors LLC.

In an investor letter circulated today, Greenlight Capital founder and president David Einhorn concurs, revealing that his fund has taken a short position against U.S. corporate credit:

Over the past few years, corporate debt has expanded dramatically, while covenant packages and other bondholder protections have weakened considerably.

Rating agencies have been complacent and allowed debt to Ebitda and debt to equity ratios to deteriorate without a corresponding reduction in credit ratings. Meanwhile, we are a decade into an economic recovery and there are signs the economy may be slowing.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/32SVsRL Tyler Durden