New Home Sales Miss As Mortgage Rate Collapse Fails To Bring Buyers Back

Despite yesterday’s disappointing existing home sales print, new home sales were expected to spike (after dropping for two straight months), and did – thanks to a large downward revision in May.

New Home Sales were 646k SAAR in June – missing expectations of 658k. However this 7.0% MoM jump was bigger than expected thanks to the 8.2% revised plunge in May.

May new-home sales were revised down to 604,000 from 626,000; March and April purchases were also revised lower.

Year-over-year, new home sales rebounded…

Purchases of new homes jumped in the West by the most since August 2010, while sales also rose in the South. Sales in the Midwest slumped to 56,000 last month, the slowest pace since September 2015.

The supply of homes at the current sales rate declined to 6.3 months from 6.7 months in May.

The median sales price was little changed from a year earlier at $310,400.

Despite a collapse in mortgage rates, new home sales refuse to accelerate…

Time for a rate-cut then… because that has helped housing, right? Oh wait…

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2Ykxn6V Tyler Durden

Cory Booker’s ‘Second Look’ Reforms Would Create More Chances To Reduce Federal Prison Sentences

Sen. Cory Booker (D–N.J.) is introducing new legislation that he hopes will follow the FIRST STEP Act by allowing for more sentence reductions and more releases for federal inmates who have served at least 10 years behind bars.

Co-sponsored in the House by Rep. Karen Bass (D–Calif.), the Second Look Act would give federal judges the ability to review an inmate’s sentence after he or she has served 10 years in federal prison. Judges will get the opportunity to look over the inmate’s behavior, consider input from federal prosecutors, and determine whether the inmate remains a risk to the public. Upon considering that information, the judge would be able to reduce a prisoner’s sentence. People freed early under the Second Look Act would be put on supervised release for up to five years. In essence, Booker’s law would restore a version of parole to the federal criminal justice system, which Congress abolished with the passage of the Sentencing Reform Act of 1984.

Inmates older than 50 who have served at least 10 years in federal prison would benefit from a rebuttable presumption in favor of their release. That means to prevent their release, federal prosecutors will have to show why these older convicts are dangerous and should not have their sentences reduced.

The Second Look Act contains an even bigger package of reforms than the FIRST STEP Act. It would essentially eliminate mandatory minimum sentences longer than 10 years by allowing federal judges to resentence prisoners who have served at least that long. It would also eliminate automatic life sentences in federal prison. In neither type of case would judges be required to resentence, only given the option. Considering the increasingly advanced age of the federal prison population, these reforms would likely allow thousands of prisoners who were given draconian sentences in their youth to return to their families and finish their lives as free men and women.

The Second Look Act would also address another ongoing problem, which is that sentencing reforms are not always made “retroactive.” When Congress determined in 2010 that the sentencing disparity between equivalent weights of crack cocaine and powder cocaine was injust, it reduced the sentence lengths for crack cocaine to more closely resemble sentences for powder cocaine. But Congress did not create a mechanism by why prisoners sentenced before the 2010 reforms were signed into law could be resentenced under the new law. In response, President Barack Obama controversially commuted several thousand sentences to help crack offenders sentenced in the decades before the 2010 reforms. It wasn’t until President Donald Trump signed the FIRST STEP Act into law that crack sentencing changes were made retroactive and prisoners had an avenue to pursue resentencing.

This is a good bill that has unfortunately roused the ire of America’s dumb-on-crime wing.

Originally, the bill was named the Matthew Charles and William Underwood Second Look Act of 2019, but the names have since been taken off. Charles was the first person released under the FIRST STEP Act, the 2018 law that retroactively reduced the sentences of people in federal prison for crack cocaine-related convictions. He had served 21 years for selling crack to a police informant. No one has pointed to Charles as a case for why we need to keep our sentencing laws as they are, but Underwood is a different story.

Currently 65, Underwood has served nearly 30 years of a life sentence for racketeering and drug charges. He was accused of founding and leading a violent drug gang in New York City. Attempting to tie Underwood and Charles together, while downplaying Underwood’s record, has prompted conservative pundits like Ann Coulter and Tucker Carlson to bring up Underwood’s history to show just how serious the crimes he was sentenced for actually are.

Yet as Sen. Booker has pointed out, Underwood was convicted in the 1980s. If Underwood was convicted today of those exact same charges, he would likely receive a lesser sentence due to changes in sentencing laws. Underwood’s clemency attorney, Nkechi Taifa, explained to Reason that Underwood’s 30-year sentence actually covered the most serious components of the gang conspiracy charges. She says it was a judge who imposed the life sentence (not a jury) based on some criminal enterprise enhancements that hit right during the time when the government wanted to prove how tough it was willing to fight the drug wars. “If he had been sentenced earlier or later, he wouldn’t have gotten life,” Taifa says.

The Second Look Act does not guarantee any inmate’s freedom. Based on the circumstances, it’s possible that Underwood might not even be released under the law named after him.

Both Booker and Underwood’s family also point out that he’s been a model prisoner with a clean record who regrets his past behavior, and is now a grandfather. And so, given all that time served, is there any reason to keep Underwood behind bars? Is he still a danger to society?

“The question is, ‘What is a proportionate sentence?'” Kevin Ring, president of the criminal justice reform nonprofit FAMM, tells Reason. “There has to be a sentence for those who cannot be rehabilitated, and that’s not William Underwood. A life sentence has to be reserved for the worst people. … We don’t have to make people saints in order to argue that they’re human. Here’s a person who has served 30 years, and has had no infractions.”

The final text of the bill does not appear to be posted yet by Congress. However, FAMM, which supports the bill, provided the text of the House version to Reason. FAMM also has a thorough analysis of what the legislation does and a handy explainer graphic to help understand how it works. As part of the justification, FAMM notes that the United States currently has more than 53,000 people serving federal life sentences without any possibility of parole.

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US Manufacturing PMI Slumps To 10-Year Low

Despite a collapse in European Manufacturing PMIs (led by Germany), and 3rd month of contraction in Japan PMIs; US PMIs were expected to modestly rebound in preliminary July data, but instead the picture was mixed:

  • US Manufacturing PMI missed – printing 50.0 versus 51.0 exp and down from 50.6 in June

  • US Services PMI beat – printing 52.2 versus 51.8 exp and up from 51.5 in June.

The manufacturing print is the lowest in 118 months.

At 51.6 in July, the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit Flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index edged up from 51.5 in June and remained higher than the three-year low recorded during May.

Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

The overall picture of modest growth conceals a two-speed economy, with steady service sector growth masking a deepening downturn in the manufacturing sector. The survey’s gauge of factory production has slumped to its lowest since August 2009, and indicates that manufacturing output is falling at a quarterly rate of over 1%, led by an increasing rate of loss of export sales.

The survey’s employment gauge has meanwhile fallen to a level consistent with 130,000 jobs being added in July, down from an average of 200,000, in the first quarter and 150,000 in the second quarter, as firm became increasingly cautious in relation to hiring. Manufacturers are shedding workers at the fastest rate since 2009 and service sector job creation is now down to its lowest since April 2017.

Future prospects have also darkened to the gloomiest since comparable data were first available in 2012, suggesting that companies may look to tighten their belts further in coming months, dampening spending, investment and jobs growth. Geopolitical worries, trade wars and increasingly widespread expectations of slower economic growth at home and internationally have all pulled business optimism lower.”

Williamson concludes:

“The survey data indicated that the economy started the third quarter on a disappointingly soft footing. The PMIs for manufacturing and services collectively point to annualized GDP growth of just 1.6%, up only very marginally from a lacklustre 1.5% indicated by the survey in the second quarter.”

Finally, we note former fund manager and FX trader Richard Breslow’s comments on the dismal data:

“It doesn’t seem like a tremendous leap of faith to worry that they are proving the point of the declining efficacy of existing policies in order to justify experimenting with some of the more outlandish proposals, like MMT, that are getting way too much airtime.”

Does make on wonder.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2y3O6g7 Tyler Durden

Democrats Revive Russia-Probe Drama With Live-Action Version of the Mueller Report

Mueller Mania 4-ever. Determined not to let go of the Russian boogeymen they’ve conjured since President Donald Trump took office, Democrats are now staging a live-action version of the Mueller report before members of Congress.

The spectacle, which goes down today, will feature Special Counsel Robert Mueller testifying before the House Judiciary Committee and House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence about his findings in the Trump-Russia probe.

In case you’re the masochistic type, here’s how you can watch along from home:

The judiciary appearance has already begun; the next session starts at noon.

Each committee member will get five minutes to question Mueller about his investigation and report.



ELECTION 2020

Kamala Harris trolls people who don’t think prison abuse is funny. Is there any better indication that Harris thinks she’s impervious to criticism of her record as a drug warrior who defended dirty cops and moved to throw poor parents in prison than this scene from a new Washington Post profile, in which she compares running a presidential campaign to serving in prison?

“I actually got sleep,” Kamala said, sitting in a Hilton conference room, beside her sister, and smiling as she recalled walks on the beach with her husband and that one morning SoulCycle class she was able to take.

“That kind of stuff,” Kamala said between sips of iced tea, “which was about bringing a little normal to the days, that was a treat for me.”

“I mean, in some ways it was a treat,” Maya said. “But not really.”

“It’s a treat that a prisoner gets when they ask for, ‘A morsel of food please,'” Kamala said shoving her hands forward as if clutching a metal plate, her voice now trembling like an old British man locked in a Dickensian jail cell. “‘And water! I just want wahtahhh….’Your standards really go out the f—ing window.”

Kamala burst into laughter.

Meanwhile, Neera Tanden continues to do her best to prove the right doesn’t own paranoid conspiracy:

And Jonathan Chait suggests the Democratic Party is both “a hidebound claque of traditionalists who are consistently outmaneuvered by a more disciplined and ruthless opposition” and also “being hijacked by ideological fanatics sent on a political suicide mission.”



QUICK HITS

President Trump on Tuesday filed a lawsuit against the House Ways and Means Committee, New York Attorney General Letitia James and New York tax commissioner Michael Schmidt in an effort to block them from releasing his state tax returns.

• The Justice Department is opening an antitrust investigation into “Big Tech,” because if there’s one thing that says Serious Investigation and not Political Stunt, it’s going after an amorphously defined group with a totally loaded label.

• New York just criminalized “the non-consensual sharing or publication of an intimate image.

• A federal judge has ordered a temporary block of three anti-abortion laws in Arkansas.

  • Dispatches from Trump’s talk to conservative college students:

• Radley Balko explores Kentucky “justice”:

• “China has warned that it could send troops to Hong Kong to deal with pro-democracy protests,” reports The Daily Beast.

• Science!

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via IFTTT

Cory Booker’s ‘Second Look’ Reforms Would Create More Chances To Reduce Federal Prison Sentences

Sen. Cory Booker (D–N.J.) is introducing new legislation that he hopes will follow the FIRST STEP Act by allowing for more sentence reductions and more releases for federal inmates who have served at least 10 years behind bars.

Co-sponsored in the House by Rep. Karen Bass (D–Calif.), the Second Look Act would give federal judges the ability to review an inmate’s sentence after he or she has served 10 years in federal prison. Judges will get the opportunity to look over the inmate’s behavior, consider input from federal prosecutors, and determine whether the inmate remains a risk to the public. Upon considering that information, the judge would be able to reduce a prisoner’s sentence. People freed early under the Second Look Act would be put on supervised release for up to five years. In essence, Booker’s law would restore a version of parole to the federal criminal justice system, which Congress abolished with the passage of the Sentencing Reform Act of 1984.

Inmates older than 50 who have served at least 10 years in federal prison would benefit from a rebuttable presumption in favor of their release. That means to prevent their release, federal prosecutors will have to show why these older convicts are dangerous and should not have their sentences reduced.

The Second Look Act contains an even bigger package of reforms than the FIRST STEP Act. It would essentially eliminate mandatory minimum sentences longer than 10 years by allowing federal judges to resentence prisoners who have served at least that long. It would also eliminate automatic life sentences in federal prison. In neither type of case would judges be required to resentence, only given the option. Considering the increasingly advanced age of the federal prison population, these reforms would likely allow thousands of prisoners who were given draconian sentences in their youth to return to their families and finish their lives as free men and women.

The Second Look Act would also address another ongoing problem, which is that sentencing reforms are not always made “retroactive.” When Congress determined in 2010 that the sentencing disparity between equivalent weights of crack cocaine and powder cocaine was injust, it reduced the sentence lengths for crack cocaine to more closely resemble sentences for powder cocaine. But Congress did not create a mechanism by why prisoners sentenced before the 2010 reforms were signed into law could be resentenced under the new law. In response, President Barack Obama controversially commuted several thousand sentences to help crack offenders sentenced in the decades before the 2010 reforms. It wasn’t until President Donald Trump signed the FIRST STEP Act into law that crack sentencing changes were made retroactive and prisoners had an avenue to pursue resentencing.

This is a good bill that has unfortunately roused the ire of America’s dumb-on-crime wing.

Originally, the bill was named the Matthew Charles and William Underwood Second Look Act of 2019, but the names have since been taken off. Charles was the first person released under the FIRST STEP Act, the 2018 law that retroactively reduced the sentences of people in federal prison for crack cocaine-related convictions. He had served 21 years for selling crack to a police informant. No one has pointed to Charles as a case for why we need to keep our sentencing laws as they are, but Underwood is a different story.

Currently 65, Underwood has served nearly 30 years of a life sentence for racketeering and drug charges. He was accused of founding and leading a violent drug gang in New York City. Attempting to tie Underwood and Charles together, while downplaying Underwood’s record, has prompted conservative pundits like Ann Coulter and Tucker Carlson to bring up Underwood’s history to show just how serious the crimes he was sentenced for actually are.

Yet as Sen. Booker has pointed out, Underwood was convicted in the 1980s. If Underwood was convicted today of those exact same charges, he would likely receive a lesser sentence due to changes in sentencing laws. Underwood’s clemency attorney, Nkechi Taifa, explained to Reason that Underwood’s 30-year sentence actually covered the most serious components of the gang conspiracy charges. She says it was a judge who imposed the life sentence (not a jury) based on some criminal enterprise enhancements that hit right during the time when the government wanted to prove how tough it was willing to fight the drug wars. “If he had been sentenced earlier or later, he wouldn’t have gotten life,” Taifa says.

The Second Look Act does not guarantee any inmate’s freedom. Based on the circumstances, it’s possible that Underwood might not even be released under the law named after him.

Both Booker and Underwood’s family also point out that he’s been a model prisoner with a clean record who regrets his past behavior, and is now a grandfather. And so, given all that time served, is there any reason to keep Underwood behind bars? Is he still a danger to society?

“The question is, ‘What is a proportionate sentence?'” Kevin Ring, president of the criminal justice reform nonprofit FAMM, tells Reason. “There has to be a sentence for those who cannot be rehabilitated, and that’s not William Underwood. A life sentence has to be reserved for the worst people. … We don’t have to make people saints in order to argue that they’re human. Here’s a person who has served 30 years, and has had no infractions.”

The final text of the bill does not appear to be posted yet by Congress. However, FAMM, which supports the bill, provided the text of the House version to Reason. FAMM also has a thorough analysis of what the legislation does and a handy explainer graphic to help understand how it works. As part of the justification, FAMM notes that the United States currently has more than 53,000 people serving federal life sentences without any possibility of parole.

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Mnuchin Bashes Bitcoin, Blasts Bezos For “Destroying” US Retail Industry

On an already busy Wednesday that featured not only a series of critical earnings reports but the long-awaited Congressional testimony of Special Counsel Robert Mueller, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin returned to CNBC for the second time in a week to offer an update on trade talks with China.

But his comments on China were hardly the most interesting thing the Treasury Secretary said on Wednesday: He also offered perhaps his harshest criticism of Amazon yet.

“There’s no question they’ve limited competition,” Mnuchin said.

If you look at Amazon, although there are certain benefits to it, it destroyed the retail industry across the United States, so there’s no question they’ve limited competition.”

He added that the DOJ was “absolutely right” to look into antitrust issues involving US tech firms.

Mnuchin’s remarks came less than a day after the latest update on the DOJ’s efforts to hold America’s largest tech firms responsible for anti-competitive practices.

Weighing in on Peter Thiel’s accusation that Google should be investigated for treason over its work with the Chinese government (which was taking place as the company severed its ties with the DoD over pressure from its employees, Mnuchin said he was
“not aware of Google working with the Chinese govt in any way that raises concerns.”

The interview later returned to the subject of cryptocurrencies (the focus of Mnuchin’s last interview with CNBC). Mnuchin joked that he wouldn’t be investing in bitcoin any time soon.

We imagine we’ll be hearing more from the Secretary in the coming days as he prepares to head to Beijing for the next round of talks with his Chinese counterparts.

Watch the full interview below:

Watch Treasury Secretary Mnuchin’s full interview on trade, Big Tech and more from CNBC.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2YgNzBY Tyler Durden

Democrats Revive Russia-Probe Drama With Live-Action Version of the Mueller Report

Mueller Mania 4-ever. Determined not to let go of the Russian boogeymen they’ve conjured since President Donald Trump took office, Democrats are now staging a live-action version of the Mueller report before members of Congress.

The spectacle, which goes down today, will feature Special Counsel Robert Mueller testifying before the House Judiciary Committee and House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence about his findings in the Trump-Russia probe.

In case you’re the masochistic type, here’s how you can watch along from home:

The judiciary appearance has already begun; the next session starts at noon.

Each committee member will get five minutes to question Mueller about his investigation and report.



ELECTION 2020

Kamala Harris trolls people who don’t think prison abuse is funny. Is there any better indication that Harris thinks she’s impervious to criticism of her record as a drug warrior who defended dirty cops and moved to throw poor parents in prison than this scene from a new Washington Post profile, in which she compares running a presidential campaign to serving in prison?

“I actually got sleep,” Kamala said, sitting in a Hilton conference room, beside her sister, and smiling as she recalled walks on the beach with her husband and that one morning SoulCycle class she was able to take.

“That kind of stuff,” Kamala said between sips of iced tea, “which was about bringing a little normal to the days, that was a treat for me.”

“I mean, in some ways it was a treat,” Maya said. “But not really.”

“It’s a treat that a prisoner gets when they ask for, ‘A morsel of food please,'” Kamala said shoving her hands forward as if clutching a metal plate, her voice now trembling like an old British man locked in a Dickensian jail cell. “‘And water! I just want wahtahhh….’Your standards really go out the f—ing window.”

Kamala burst into laughter.

Meanwhile, Neera Tanden continues to do her best to prove the right doesn’t own paranoid conspiracy:

And Jonathan Chait suggests the Democratic Party is both “a hidebound claque of traditionalists who are consistently outmaneuvered by a more disciplined and ruthless opposition” and also “being hijacked by ideological fanatics sent on a political suicide mission.”



QUICK HITS

President Trump on Tuesday filed a lawsuit against the House Ways and Means Committee, New York Attorney General Letitia James and New York tax commissioner Michael Schmidt in an effort to block them from releasing his state tax returns.

• The Justice Department is opening an antitrust investigation into “Big Tech,” because if there’s one thing that says Serious Investigation and not Political Stunt, it’s going after an amorphously defined group with a totally loaded label.

• New York just criminalized “the non-consensual sharing or publication of an intimate image.

• A federal judge has ordered a temporary block of three anti-abortion laws in Arkansas.

  • Dispatches from Trump’s talk to conservative college students:

• Radley Balko explores Kentucky “justice”:

• “China has warned that it could send troops to Hong Kong to deal with pro-democracy protests,” reports The Daily Beast.

• Science!

from Latest – Reason.com https://ift.tt/2y9RVjH
via IFTTT

Trade War Chaos: Trump’s Tariffs Crash American RV Industry 

Trade war crosscurrents have damaged the American manufacturing sector, and within, a lot of stress is building up in the RV industry, according to discussions with industry insiders and economists, along with data showing a sharp sales decline amid increasing costs, reported Reuters.

The industry has taken a massive blow from President Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum and other retaliatory duties on thousands of Chinese-made RV parts, from electronics to LED lights to vinyl.

Domestic shipments of RVs to dealers have plummeted 22% in the first five months of this year, compared to the same period last year, after dropping 4% in 2018, according to the Recreational Vehicle Industry Association.

The RV industry’s crisis shows how President Trump’s trade war has backfired, hurting the industry he promised to protect.

Tariff-related price hikes have forced RV manufacturers to pass on costs to dealerships, which in turn the American consumer bears the brunt of the tariff, has slowed sales at dealers who are cutting orders and laying off workers.

Michael Hicks, a Ball State University economist who tracks the industry, warned that the collapse in RV shipments could indicate a wider economic downturn. Hicks said shipments had fallen sharply just before the last three U.S. recessions.

“The RV industry is a great bellwether of the economy,” said Hicks, because the vehicles are an expensive and discretionary purchase, easily delayed by consumers who start to worry about their financial stability.

Reuters suggests that the RV industry is headed for a significant consolidation after several years of expansion, led to new factories, has oversupplied the market.

Managers at RV manufacturers and suppliers said President Trump’s trade war is why the industry is now crashing.

“The tariff price increases are what tipped the RV business — it started the landslide, no question,” said Tom Bond, the materials and purchasing manager at Adnik Manufacturing, an Elkhart-based division of Norco Industries.

Thor Industries controls almost 50% of the North America RV market, reported its sales have dropped 23% in its fiscal third quarter, which ended in April, compared to a year ago. Production cuts and layoffs have been in full swing at some of Thor’s North American plants.

Thor assembler Demiris Jahmal Williams told Reuters his hours were cut, and his factory has been shut down through July.

“This is the worse I’ve seen it,” he said.

Michael Happe, CEO of Winnebago Industries Inc, said tariffs had forced RV manufacturers to increase costs to dealers.

While many American believe the RV industry is entirely American – that’s not the case when Reuters examined supply chains of RV manufacturers that extended into China. The industry relies heavily on imports for everything from air compressors, electronics, bedding fabrics, lighting, and flooring.

And according to Hick’s comments, the next recession may have already arrived with crashing RV shipments spurred by a trade war.

Any rate cut today is three quarters too late, the downturn has already begun.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2ZbIsUW Tyler Durden

Federal Reserve Headlines – Facts Versus Fiction

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

When it becomes serious, you have to lie.” – Jean-Claude Juncker, former President of the Eurogroup of Eurozone finance ministers

On July 16, 2019, Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans made a series of comments that were blasted across the financial news wires. In the headlines taken from his speech on the 16th and other statements over the past few weeks, Mr. Evans argues for the need to cut interest rates at the July 31stmeeting and future meetings.

In this article, we look at his rationale and provide you with supporting graphs and comments that question his logic supporting the rate cuts. We pick on Charles Evans in this piece, but quite honestly, he is reiterating similar themes discussed by many other Fed members.

The issues raised here are important because the Fed continues to play an outsized role in influencing asset valuations that are historically high. As such, it is incumbent upon investors to understand when the Fed may be on the precipice of making a policy error. If asset prices rest on confidence in the Fed, what will happen when said confidence erodes?

The Fed’s Mandate

Before comparing reality with his recent headlines, it is important to clarify the Fed’s Congressional mandate as stated in the Federal Reserve Act. The entire Federal Reserve act can be found HERE. For this article, we focus on Section 2A- Monetary Policy Objectives as follows:

The stock market is at all-time highs, bond yields are well below “moderate,” unemployment stands at 50-year lows, and prices are stable. Based on the Fed’s objectives, there is certainly no reason to cut rates.

Evans Thoughts versus Reality

All of the headlines below are courtesy of Bloomberg News and the data is sourced from Bloomberg and the St. Louis Federal Reserve

There are a lot of risks out there, citing BREXIT

BREXIT, the UK withdrawal from the European Union (EU), passed in a public referendum over three years ago. Since then, lawmakers on both sides of the Channel have tried unsuccessfully to fulfill voters’ wishes. The exit was supposed to occur by March 29, 2019 but was extended to October 31, 2019. BREXIT is not a new risk. In fact, there was a high likelihood of a hard BREXIT in late March before the extension, and the Fed never mentioned it then as a reason to take action.  Further, the Bank of England (BOE) and the European Central Bank (ECB), not the Fed, are the parties that should be first in line to mitigate any financial/monetary risks associated with Europe and any repercussions coming from BREXIT. At some point Fed action may be warranted if a hard BREXIT occurs and rattles global economies. However, acting in advance on what might or might not happen is not the Fed’s job.

There are other risks, such as the ongoing trade war with China, the coming debt cap, and Iran to name a few. We ask you though, has there ever been a period where numerous concerns and risks did not exist?

Fed should not generate excess stimulus

The first graph quantifies the level of Fed Funds and the amount of QE, allowing us to compare monetary stimulus over the last 40 years. Clearly, the last ten years, including the current period, is excessive and if anything means the Fed should be removing “excess stimulus.”

For more details on this graph and other measures of excessive stimulus, please read our article Why the Fed’s Monetary Policy is Still Very Accommodative.

Other evidence also indicates that current monetary policy is excessive. For instance, the graph below, courtesy of Mr. Evans own Chicago Federal Reserve, shows that national financial conditions are near the easiest of any period in the last 50 years. Of the 2,531 weekly data points in the graph, only 60 weekly periods (2.3%) had easier financial conditions than today. Again, conditions are easy because monetary policy is very accommodative. Excess is an appropriate term to describe the state of monetary policy and it may actually be an understatement.

We need to do everything we can to get to 2% inflation

The Federal Reserve Act clearly says the Fed should promote stable prices. Stable prices do not axiomatically mean 2% inflation as they have interpreted it. The Act also makes no mention of persistent inflation that compounds over time.

The following graph shows the level of prices since the Revolutionary War. From 1775 to 1971 prices were relatively stable, except during times of war. Since 1971, when Nixon revoked the gold standard and allowed the Fed carte blanche to manipulate the money supply, higher annual prices have accumulated, resulting in massive price inflation.

The Fed’s 2% inflation target is a far cry from the price stability mandate to which they are supposed to adhere.

Says path of U.S. economy is toward trend growth

Mr. Evans uses language that suggests U.S. GDP has been running below trend but making progress toward trend growth. Based upon data supplied by the St. Louis Fed, real GDP has been running abovetrend for the last eight quarters as shown below.

Inflation situation alone calls for two 25 basis point cuts by year’s end

The following graphs show various measures of inflation and inflation expectations. It is hard to point to any recent inflation trends in these graphs that have meaningfully changed from the trends of the last few years. Given this broad set of data, why does the current inflation “situation” warrant even more aggressive monetary policy action?

Economic fundamentals are solid / U.S. economy is really quite solid

Mr. Evans is right. GDP was a little soft in the second quarter, but it was running above trend for the prior eight quarters. With Fed Funds still at dangerously low levels, the Fed’s balance sheet swollen beyond any historical precedent, and the economy “really quite solid,” his call for rate cuts does not reconcile with his own assessment of the economy.

Says he forecasts 50 basis points of accommodation to lift inflation

Using data going back to 1990, the graph below shows that there is no statistical relationship between the Fed’s (current) preferred measure of inflation (PCE) and the Fed Funds rate they manage. PCE measured a year forward to the current Fed Funds rate demonstrates even less of a relationship.

Based on data provided by the Fed, the idea that the Fed possess a magical joystick which enables them to control prices is fallacious. Evan’s statement lacks any statistical backing and is a complete guess at best. At worst, it is an intentional effort to influence public sentiment improperly.

Summary

The conclusions here suggest that Evans logic is flawed and misleading. Based on his arguments, the Fed has no basis to cut interest rates. Fed speakers that modify their language daily, as they have been doing over the prior month or two, to conjure support for rate cuts put their integrity and investor confidence in the Fed at risk.

The primary objective of Fed policy should be geared toward imperceptible adjustments to foster a well-functioning market-based economy. On the contrary, what we increasingly see is a market-economy increasingly jostled and cajoled by hair-on-fire day-traders posing as a monetary authority. By employing well publicized micro-management tactics, the Fed naturally increases the chances of a policy error. Indeed, the proper characterization of that risk is that the Fed increases the likelihood of further policy errors compounding the legacy issues already in play thanks to Powell’s predecessors.

Given the reliance of equity prices on the so-called “Fed Put” and the excessive valuations in many asset markets, we advise paying close attention as a policy error could quickly cause assets to re-price to properly reflect their inherent risks, and then some. Seldom do those adjustments stop at fair value.

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/2GrSLgf Tyler Durden

The Trump Administration Does Not Support The Total Invalidation of the ACA

On July 9, the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals heard oral argument in Texas v. United States. The three members on the panel were Judges Jennifer Walker Elrod, Kurt D. Engelhardt, and Carolyn Dineen King. You can listen here.

My first post considered standing. My second post focused on the constitutionality of the individual mandate. This final post will analyze severability.

I approach this topic with some caution because modern severability doctrine is a jurisprudential mess. In short, if a specific provision of a law is declared unconstitutional, courts have to determine how Congress would have intended the rest of the statute to operate in the absence of the unconstitutional provision. This framework suffers from similar problems that plagued original intent originalism, a jurisprudence most originalists abandoned some time ago.

It is impossible to identify, and somehow combine, all the differing purposes that were held by different drafters to reach a single intention of the framers. It is even more difficult to determine a single intent of many framers based on a statute they did not frame. In Booker v. United States, Justice Thomas explained that this approach requires “a nebulous inquiry into hypothetical congressional intent.” To be sure, Congress can address this problem through the inclusion of a severability clause. Such a duly enacted law tells us how the statute should be recreated in the event one provision is set aside. 

Because of this doctrine’s difficulties, there is some merit to the position advocated by the four joint dissenters in NFIB: rather than using a blue pencil to rewrite the law, courts should declare the entire statute unconstitutional, and let Congress start from scratch with a clean slate. 

That approach, the dissenters argued, is far more preferable to that of the controlling opinion. Chief Justice Roberts rewrote the individual mandate and Medicaid expansion. Our zombified ACA has created many unintended problems that would be difficult to roll back legislatively. For example, in states that did not opt into the Medicaid expansion, certain low-income individuals are ineligible for marketplace subsidies. As a result, they cannot obtain subsidized insurance, either through Medicaid or through the marketplace.

During oral arguments in the Fifth Circuit, Judge Engelhardt framed this problem in a colorful way (at 1:34:40):

Judge Engelhardt: Why does Congress want the Article III judiciary to become the taxidermist for every legislative big game accomplishment that Congress achieves? Congress can fix this. Congress could have fixed this after NFIB

Yet, there is a problem with the NFIB joint dissenter’s approach: Article III courts lack the power to enjoin provisions of law that do not injure the Plaintiffs. Justice Thomas articulated this position in his Murphy v. NCAA concurrence. He wrote that the Court’s modern severability doctrine is “in tension with traditional limits on judicial authority.” The judicial duty, or power, he wrote, was “the power to render judgments in individual cases.” When a “statute conflicts with the Constitution, then courts must resolve that dispute and, if they agree with the defendant, follow the higher law of the Constitution.” Early courts did not employ anything that resembles modern severability doctrine. Rather, “they would simply decline to enforce [the unconstitutional statute] in the case before them.” (You should read Kevin Walsh’s article Partial Unconstitutionality, which Justice Thomas cites.)

Under modern doctrine, however, the Court “excise[s],” or removes an unconstitutional provision from a statute as if that excision were the “remedy.” But this approach can’t be right, Justice Thomas writes: “remedies ‘operate with respect to specific parties,’ not ‘on legal rules in the abstract.'” (Here, Justice Thomas favorably cites John Harrison’s article, Severability, Remedies, and Constitutional Adjudication.) Indeed, “courts do not have the power to ‘excise’ or ‘strike down’ statutes.”

In Murphy, Justice Thomas identifies a fundamental, jurisdictional problem with modern severability doctrine: it “often requires courts to weigh in on statutory provisions that no party has standing to challenge, bringing courts dangerously close to issuing advisory opinions.” He explained, “[i]f one provision of a statute is deemed unconstitutional, the severability doctrine places every other provision at risk of being declared nonseverable and thus inoperative; our precedents do not ask whether the plaintiff has standing to challenge those other provisions.” Thomas wrote that “severability doctrine is thus an unexplained exception to the normal rules of standing, as well as the separation-of-powers principles that those rules protect.” Why? Because “severability doctrine comes into play only after the court has” decided that the Plaintiff has “standing to challenge the unconstitutional part of the statute.” Generally, “[i]n every other context, a plaintiff must demonstrate standing for each part of the statute that he wants to challenge.”

In Murphy, Justice Thomas recognized that his analysis was inconsistent with the joint dissent he joined in NFIB. Indeed, he cited that opinion, which explained:

To be sure, an argument can be made that those portions of the Act that none of the parties has standing to challenge cannot be held nonseverable. The response to this argument is that our cases do not support it. See, e.g., Williams v. Standard Oil Co. of La. (1929) (holding nonseverable statutory provisions that did not burden the parties). It would be particularly destructive of sound government to apply such a rule with regard to a multifaceted piece of legislation like the ACA. It would take years, perhaps decades, for each of its provisions to be adjudicated separately—and for some of them (those simply expending federal funds) no one may have separate standing. The Federal Government, the States, and private parties ought to know at once whether the entire legislation fails.

These policy considerations are well-founded. It would be logistically impossible to challenge a massive law like the ACA piecemeal. But if Justice Thomas is correct that the standing inquiry is jurisdictional–that is, the courts are constrained by Article III–then the entire basis for modern severability doctrine is wrong. All of it. For example, in the First Amendment context, the Court’s approach to overbreadth has to be wrong. How can the Court enjoin the entirety of a statute, if only part of that law restricts the Plaintiff’s speech? As with many proposals that emanate from Justice Thomas’s chambers, this change to severability doctrine would be radical. 

Radical for plaintiffs challenging federal law, at least. I suspect that lawyers in the Department of Justice would welcome any shift in the law towards Justice Thomas’s vision. Why? As a general matter, the Department of Justice tries to salvage as much of a federal law as it can. There are of course exceptions to this traditional practice. The Obama Administration declined to defend Section 3 of DOMA in Windsor. And the Trump Administration declined to defend the ACA. But lawyers for the federal government consistently argue that courts should uphold federal law. Yet, in the severability context, these arguments are invariably grounded in the nebulous inquiry into congressional intent–a question on which reasonable minds can differ. Justice Thomas’s concurrence, however, completely reorients the severability remedy in jurisdictional terms: courts cannot enjoin the enforcement of an otherwise inseverable provision, if that provision does not injury the named Plaintiffs. 

Could DOJ simply urge a court to adopt Justice Thomas’s approach? I think not. This approach would effect a revolutionary change in the way courts approach severability. Lower courts, including the 5th Circuit, lack the ability to jettison long-standing doctrine. But what if DOJ could quietly guide the courts towards the Thomas approach, without saying so? I suspect that DOJ is taking this exact approach in the Obamacare litigation. 

After Texas filed its challenge to the ACA, Attorney General Sessions contended that the mandate could not be severed from the ACA’s guaranteed issue and community rating provisions. (These regulations prevent insurers from denying coverage, and charging more, to people with preexisting conditions.) If the mandate was unconstitutional, then the popular insurance reforms would also have to be halted. The Obama Justice Department took this same position in 2012, though it did so before the penalty was reduced to zero.

After Judge O’Connor found that the mandate could not be severed from the entire ACA, the Justice Department switched its position. Most media reports suggested that the government now favored the complete invalidation of the ACA. I was critical of that decision, which I saw as favoring a complete affirmance of the District Court’s ruling. According to Politico, Attorney General William Barr and HHS Secretary Alex Azar opposed this approach, but acting Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney prevailed upon the President.

On March 25, 2019, Joseph Hunt, the Assistant Attorney General, sent a two sentence letter to the Fifth Circuit:

The Department of Justice has determined that the district court’s judgment should be affirmed. Because the United States is not urging that any portion of the district court’s judgment be reversed, the government intends to file a brief on the appellees’ schedule.

However, we would learn that the government’s actual position was a bit more nuanced. DOJ didn’t seek a complete affirmance. The final sentence of the government’s brief stated, “Accordingly, the court’s judgment should be affirmed on the merits, except insofar as it purports to extend relief to ACA provisions that are unnecessary to remedy plaintiffs’ injuries.” On p. 28, the brief explained this position in more detail: 

Accordingly, while the district court properly considered the legal issues before it and this Court has jurisdiction to affirm the reasoning below on the merits, the relief awarded should be limited only to those provisions that actually injure the individual plaintiffs. For example, the ACA amended several criminal statutes used to prosecute individuals who defraud our healthcare systems. See, e.g., 18 U.S.C. § 1347(b) & 42 U.S.C. § 1320a-7b(h) (defining scienter required for healthcare fraud and anti-kickback violations); 29 U.S.C. § 1149 (adding a false statement offense relating to the sale and marketing of employee health benefit plans). It is unlikely that the plaintiffs here would have standing to challenge the validity of those statutes. See Linda R.S. v. Richard D., 410 U.S. 614, 619 (1973) (“[I]n American jurisprudence at least, a private citizen lacks a judicially cognizable interest in the prosecution or nonprosecution of another.”). The district court can determine the precise scope of the judgment on remand.

At the time, I suspected that the Department of Justice was quietly trying to urge the Court to adopt Justice Thomas’s framework without saying so expressly. I didn’t think the government was simply trying to save its fraud prosecutions–these laws simply provided noncontroversial examples of otherwise inseverable provisions that should not be enjoined. 

DOJ’s strategy became even more clear in its supplemental brief filed shortly before oral arguments. DOJ argued that the Declaratory Judgment Act “does not authorize courts to declare the rights of nonparties.” Here, the brief cited the same John Harrison’s article that Justice Thomas cited. Coincidence? I think not. “That principle,” the government explained, “is consistent with the Article III rule that a ‘remedy must . . . be limited to the inadequacy that produced the injury in fact that the plaintiff has established.'” (citing Gill v. Whitford (2018)). In other words, the mere declaration that the mandate was inseverable from the remainder of the ACA, pursuant to the Declaratory Judgment Act, did not resolve the case. Rather, the government explained, a “remand” was necessary to determine what “ACA provisions” could be salvaged that were “unnecessary to remedy plaintiffs’ injuries.”

I suspect this briefing represented something of a compromise. The politicos in the White House could publicly boast that the Department of Justice was seeking the complete invalidation of Obamacare. Why would President Trump be on the same side as California, and not with Texas!? But in court, the Department of Justice quietly pushes Justice Thomas’s Murphy concurrence, which would salvage some, but not all of Obamacare. Indeed, the parts that would be enjoined are the parts that injure the Plaintiffs–that is, the burdensome regulations. The parts that do not injure the Plaintiffs–the good parts–would remain on the books. This approach has all the hallmarks of a compromise, and has the added benefits of advancing the Department’s institutional interest in limiting judgments to remedy the Plaintiffs’ injuries.  

August Flentje, who argued on behalf of DOJ, resolved any doubts about the government’s strategy. Consider the following colloquy with Judge Elrod (starting at 1:19:00):

Flientje: The only other thing I have to say on remedy is that a point we made in our brief where we differ with the plaintiffs … is that the … declaratory remedy should be limited to the injuries that are established by the Plaintiffs. Again, we think this is more of a technical point. It is a very important institutional point for the government that district court judgments should be limited to the dispute between the parties and the injuries that establish standing for the plaintiffs. Again, we don’t think that needs to be sorted out, which provisions of the ACA would be covered and not covered. That was not addressed in the district court. It would require an assessment of injuries to Texas, which the district did not conduct. And again it might all be obviated if there is a precedential ruling from a higher court that resolves these kinds of issues as a matter of precedent. 

At face value, DOJ’s position is confounding. Douglas Letter, the attorney for the House of Representatives, offered this comment (at 1:36:40):

“The attorney for the Department of Justice, Mr. Flentje and I have been friends for many many years. What he is arguing here, the DOJ position makes no sense.”

Judge Elrod posed a similar question:

Judge Elrod: Could you help a bit with that? That’s a little bit vague. Because it seems that there is an argument that it was inseverable all the way … but then the government says that only a couple of the other provisions would be wrapped up in it…. 

Flientje’s answer to Judge Elrod sheds some light on how the government is seeking to implement Justice Thomas’s Murphy opinion. 

Flientje: Our argument on the scope of the judgment is totally separate from our argument concerning severability. . . . 

Judge Elrod: Are you saying it is entirely inseverable now? Before you argued some parts of it could kept, are you saying the whole thing must go?

Flientje: Our position is that the entire act is not severable. However, the judgment might still be limited. The judgment of the district should still assess the injuries that these various provisions cause to plaintiffs, and should not declare a provision that has no impact on the Plaintiffs to be unlawful based on applying severability. The court might say, the reason this is inseverable is because the whole statute rises or falls together. We have the findings that work as a non-severability clause. We have 9 justices who said this all works together. We have all this assessment of severability that looks to the statute as a whole. So as far as the district court legal reasoning, it could say the statute rises and falls together. However, the judgment needs to be narrowed a little bit. You need to narrow the judgment. The actual declaratory judgment to those provisions that injure and impact the Plaintiffs. And send the case back.

Under DOJ’s approach, the severability analysis has two phases.

  1. First, the district court declares that the individual mandate is inseverable from the remainder of the ACA. The Declaratory Judgment Act provides the court with jurisdiction to make this declaration.
  2. Second, the district court crafts the remedy: only those portions that injure the plaintiffs can be enjoined. The Declaratory Judgment Act does not provide the court with jurisdiction to issue a remedy, such as in injunction. Rather, the court has to rely on its traditional federal question jurisdiction, which is constrained by Article III. Generally, this second step could be performed alongside with the declaration, but given the unique posture of this case, that role would have to be performed on remand.

I am not aware of any precedent that supports this position–DOJ cites none. Rather, I see this framework as a means to implement the Thomas concurrence. 

In any event, the government is not troubled by the lack of precedent. Why not? Because the Thomas concurrence is premised on a jurisdictional argument. If the position is jurisdictional, then the absence of precedent is not fatal. Indeed, the government was not required to take this position below. To that end, Judge Elrod asked whether the government had advanced this position in the district court (at 1:22:03). It did not. Flientje replied: 

Flientje: We think it is an Article III issue, so yes we did raise it in our brief for the first time, we do think, given that, it would be appropriate to remand to consider the scope of the judgment on that point. We think that’s more of a technical point, because the severability analysis requires looking at the statute altogether. Obviously, there is precedential impact of this court’s decision or a higher court’s decision that could make a lot of sorting out those details unnecessary down the road.

If DOJ is correct, then the correct remedy after a declaration of inseverability is a district court proceeding to determine what provisions injure the individual Plaintiffs. Judge Elrod explored this point in a colloquy with Douglas Letter, the lawyer for the House (at 1:41:30):

Judge Elrod: If we held, hypothetically, that it was severable, we would say the district court, do your best severability in the first instance, take out your blue pencil.

Letter: No, you [that is the 5th Circuit] would do that.

Judge Elrod: Why would we do that? In any other normal case, you would send it back to the district in the first instance to make its best stab at trying to implement the ruling that we made. That would be the normal proceeding in hundred cases that we have this month

Judge Elrod had a similar colloquy with Kyle Hawkins, the Texas Solicitor General: 

Judge Elrod: If the court ruled on the partial summary judgment, and then you have to go back for the relief, the remedy has not been spoken of yet

Hawkins: That’s right. We will go back to district court.

Judge Elrod: You’re not to that process yet. You have a partial summary judgment.

The Fifth Court could also decide whether the plaintiff states have standing in order to allow the District Court to consider whether other provisions of the ACA injure the states. As it stands now, the only parties who were found to have standing were the private plaintiffs. And, without more, the District Court would not consider the states’ injuries. The states, which are also employers, have far greater injuries than the individual plaintiffs would.

If the Fifth Circuit follows DOJ’s approach, and affirms with a limited remand, the odds of the Supreme Court granting certiorari are decreased significantly. There is currently a stay in place, and the government has represented that it will continue enforcing the ACA. There is no urgent rush to review the case until the District Court determines which provisions would in fact have to be enjoined. That process would involve a fact-intensive inquiry, and could take some time. Only when the remedy is defined would the Supreme Court have to take the case. And, that remedy could come following the 2020 election. Moreover, in the interim, Congress could take steps to obviate this problem–the easiest option, of course, would be to simply repeal the individual mandate. There is also the possibility, however, that the Court’s four progressive defensively vote to grant certiorari, to force Chief Justice Roberts to decide this case on the eve of the presidential election. 

 

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